DOCSLIB.ORG

2018 Hurricane Season Forecast Briefing

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
2018 Hurricane Season Forecast Briefing 2018 Hurricane Briefing for the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Bob Robichaud Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Canadian Hurricane Centre Contents • Tropical Cyclones 101 • Review of the 2017 Hurricane Season • Outlook for the 2018 Hurricane Season • Sources of information for monitoring hurricanes Tropical Cyclones 101 Tropical Cyclones • Tropical cyclone is the generic term for such storms as hurricanes, tropical storms, typhoons, etc…. • They form over the warm tropical waters around the world • Tropical cyclones serve the purpose of redistributing energy stored in the ocean into the atmosphere All hurricane tracks:1842-2017 Hurricane Climatology Hurricane Origin and Track by Month June July August September October November Checklist for tropical cyclone formation • Warm ocean waters that is sufficiently deep • Unstable atmosphere • High humidity in the lower levels of the atmosphere • A minimum distance of at least 500 km from the equator • A pre-existing near- surface disturbance • Low wind shear Tropical Cyclone – Nature’s Heat Engine Tropical Cyclone Classification Hurricane Major Hurricane Tropical Storm Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5 Wind > 63 km/h 119-153 km/h 154-177 km/h 178-208 km/h 209-251 km/h Wind > 252 km/h Debby Hermine Juan Joaquin Floyd Irma (2012) (2016) (2003) (2015) (1999) (2017 Allison Isaac Arthur Gaston Harvey Patricia (2001) (2012) (2014) (2016) (2017) (2015) Minimal Damage Some Damage Extensive Devastating Catastrophic Catastrophic Damage Damage Damage Damage Tropical vs. Non-Tropical Storms Tropical Cyclone Non-Tropical Cyclone • Fueled by the warm water • Fueled by the horizontal contrast in air temperature • Slow-moving • Generally faster-moving • Symmetrical • Asymmetric Major Hurricane Irma 2017 Winter Storm January 2018 From Tropical to Post-Tropical Wind Storm becomes post-tropical, Heavy rain moving very fast, heavy rain Strongest winds on the left, strongest winds on the right Storm size increases, rain begins to shift left of track Strengthens to a hurricane, moves slowly westward Storm forms Storm starts to speed off Africa up and curve northward Tropical Cyclone Hazards Hurricane Season 2017 in Review 2017 Hurricane Season 2017 Hurricane Season Storm Tracks 2017 Hurricane Season Storm Tracks Early start to hurricane season • First storm of the season was TS Arlene which formed on April 19th • TS Bret and Cindy formed in June – no impact from Bret but Cindy resulted in 2 fatalities • TS Don and Emily formed in July – no impact from Don but Emily resulted in flooding in southern part of Florida • In early August, Franklin became the first hurricane of 2017 although was short- lived and impacts were minimal • Hurricane Gert formed in mid August but stayed offshore (Cat 2) Hurricane Harvey • Harvey started as a typical weak August tropical storm that affected the Lesser Antilles • After some weakening Harvey began to re-intensify after crossing the Yucatan • Harvey rapidly intensified into a category 4 August 25th making landfall along the middle Texas coast • Persistent heavy rains caused catastrophic flooding, and Harvey is the second-most costly hurricane in U.S. history, after accounting for inflation, behind only Katrina (2005) Hurricane Harvey • Landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast late on August 25th as a Cat 4 • First Major Hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since 2005 • Peak recorded wind speed of 229 km/h • 57 reported tornadoes with Harvey • Significant storm surge was also reported (as high as 2- 3 m) Hurricane Harvey • Very slow movement of the storm over the next few days resulted in extreme rainfall • Harvey was the most significant tropical cyclone rainfall event in United States history • The highest storm total rainfall report from Harvey was 1539 mm • Radar estimates indicated that the peak rainfall could be in the 1600 to 1800 mm range • The rainfall was also extreme in areal coverage Hurricane Harvey Hurricane Harvey Rainfall Comparisons millimetres Hurricane Harvey - Impacts • At least 68 people died from the direct effects of the storm in Texas • Over 300,00 structures were flooded • Up to 500,000 cars were flooded • 40,000 people evacuated or took refuge • About 30,000 water rescues were reported • 336,000 customers lost power • Oil refineries were shut down for extended periods Hurricane Harvey - Impacts • About 75% of the flood damage occurred OUTSIDE the 100-year flood zone • 80% of flood victims DID NOT have flood insurance • Preliminary estimates for damage costs are at $125 B U.S. • Recovery continues Hurricane Irma • Developed off the coast of Africa in late August and became a hurricane early on August 31st • Eventually reached Cat 5 with winds of 290 km/h • Landfall in Barbuda and St Martin at peak intensity • Two more landfalls as Cat 5 – British Virgin Islands, Cuba and one as Cat 4 in Bahamas Hurricane Irma • Irma made its 6th landfall in the Lower Florida Keys on September 10th as a Cat 4 Hurricane • Final landfall was near Marco Island before the storm crossed the spine of Florida • Peak wind was 257 km/h (unofficial report of 320 km/h) • Peak wind in the U.S. was 193 km/h in the Florida Keys • 21 tornadoes were reported Hurricane Irma • Positive storm surge was reported at several location in the Caribbean and in the U.S. • Offshore winds on the northern side of Irma’s circulation initially caused a negative storm surge and receding water levels along Florida’s West Coast • Some normally submerged areas went virtually dry, allowing people to walk out onto the sea or bay floor • This is a very dangerous situation as the water will eventually rise and rise rapidly Hurricane Irma - Impacts • 129 fatalities, 44 direct and 85 indirect • About $50 B U.S. in damages • Widespread devastation in the Caribbean • Total destruction on the island of Barbuda • Entire island was left the island – totally uninhabited for the first time in 300 years • 150,000 homes damaged in Cuba • Lower Florida Keys were devastated Hurricane Irma - Impacts • Largest evacuation in U.S. history (6.8 Million) • Significant flooding along the east coast of Florida • Combination of storm surge and heavy rain resulted in worst flooding in Jacksonville in over 225 years • Wind impacts extended into Georgia and the Carolinas • Extreme focus on the track resulted in some misinterpretation of the forecast for Florida Hurricane Season 2017 Continues • Jose formed in early September and intensified rapidly to Cat 4 then meandered off the coast of New England for a few days • Katia was a short-live Cat 2 hurricane that formed in the Gulf of Mexico • Lee formed in mid- September and reached Cat 3 but stayed offshore Katia Irma Jose Hurricane Maria • Maria also formed over the central Atlantic in mid- September • Rapidly intensified to a major hurricane eventually reaching Cat 5 with winds 282 km/h • Ravaged the island of Dominica with winds of 269 km/h • Direct hit on Puerto Rico with winds of 250 km/h • Approached Carolina coast before making a hard right turn Hurricane Maria - Impacts • 112 fatalities direct fatalities, likely well over 1,000 indirect fatalities so far • Dominica sustained catastrophic damage • $90 billion USD in damage (3rd costliest hurricane in U.S. history) • Electric grid was devastated (80% of utility poles were destroyed) • Practically all cell phone service was lost and municipal water supplies were knocked out • Recovery still very much ongoing today Hurricane Nate • Nate was a Cat 1 Hurricane that formed in early October and impacted Central America and the U.S. Gulf Coast • Close to 500 mm of rain reported in Central America • 44 fatalities • Flooding and mudslides in Costa Rica • Heavy rain, flooding and storm surge were reported in the U.S. • About $800 million in damage Hurricane Season 2017 Continues • Ophelia was a storm that formed in mid-October and became the final hurricane of 2017 • Ophelia reached Cat 3 and followed an odd track that brought it into Europe as a strong Post-Tropical Storm • Phillip was a late October TS – minimal impacts • Finally Rina formed in early November. With Rina, 2017 became the only season with a named storm in every month 2017 Hurricane Season Summary • 2017 was an historic season with several new records set during the season – 7th most active year in the last 167 years • 6 major hurricanes formed in 2017, the most since the hyperactive 2005 season • Costliest year for hurricanes – $265 Billion • 2nd (Harvey), 3rd (Irma) and 5th (Maria) costliest U.S hurricanes • Five Category 5 landfalls • Three Category 4 landfalls in the U.S in 26 days – only three in the previous 56 years!! • First time the U.S. had two landfalling category 4 hurricanes the same year – Harvey and Irma • Harvey set a new record for tropical cyclone-generated rainfall in the U.S. with 1539 mm 2017 Hurricane Season Summary • 37 cases of rapid intensification (strengthening of the wind speed by at least 55 km/h in 24 hours) in 2017 – only 6 were correctly forecast by NHC • Ophelia was the farthest east that an Atlantic major hurricane had ever been observed Factors Influencing Hurricane Season Water Wind Shear Multi-decadal Temperature cycle Less More active Less active Average Current Water Temperature Current Water Temperature Latest Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Water temperatures are warmer than normal Water temperatures are cooler than normal Factors Influencing Hurricane Season Water Wind Shear Multi-decadal Temperature cycle Less More active Less active Average Factors Affecting Hurricane Season May
Load more

Recommended publications
  • SUPPORTING RESILIENT RECONSTRUCTION in DOMINICA Building Back Better for a Resilient Future
    SUPPORTING RESILIENT RECONSTRUCTION IN DOMINICA Building back better for a resilient future AT A GLANCE Country Dominica Damage to housing across all parishes following Hurricane Maria Risks Hurricanes; Floods; Landslides; Earthquakes Area of Engagement Enabling resilient recovery By improving the uptake of resilient building practices, Dominica can limit the damage from natural hazards. Data source: Hurricane Maria Post-Disaster Needs Assessment DOMINICA’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS Dominica is located within the Atlantic hurricane belt and SHARING RESULTS, LEVERAGING is extremely vulnerable to high-intensity weather events FINANCING AND STARTING TO such as high winds, excess rainfall and hurricanes. Physical REBUILD development in Dominica is concentrated along narrow coastal areas, particularly in the south and west. Housing is Following both Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Erika, not built to withstand extreme natural hazards, with wood and Dominica conducted Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs), galvanized sheeting being most common for roofing and with with support from the ACP-EU NDRR Program*, which is few confined masonry buildings. managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the World Bank. On September 18, 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Dominica with catastrophic effects. Hurricane Maria was one of the most The Hurricane Maria PDNA identified housing as the most rapidly intensifying storms in recent history, leaving Dominica affected sector and one of the most important and challenging exposed to winds, flash floods and landslides. The impacts of areas for recovery. Building on the recommendations of the Hurricane Maria were severe both for the country’s economy Hurricane Maria PDNA, the ACP-EU NDRR Program launched as well as the human development of its citizens, and affected the “Enhancing Resilient Reconstruction in Dominica” project.
    [Show full text]
  • HURRICANE KENNETH (EP132017) 18–23 August 2017
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE KENNETH (EP132017) 18–23 August 2017 Robbie Berg National Hurricane Center 26 January 2018 NASA-NOAA SUOMI NPP ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE KENNETH AT 1034 UTC 21 AUGUST 2017 WHILE AT PEAK INTENSITY Kenneth was a category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) over the eastern North Pacific Ocean that did not affect land. Hurricane Kenneth 2 Hurricane Kenneth 18–23 AUGUST 2017 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Kenneth formed from the interaction of two tropical waves which moved off the west coast of Africa on 29 July and 2 August. The first wave moved across the Atlantic Ocean and northern South America at low latitudes and reached the eastern North Pacific Ocean on 8 August. At that point, the wave became more convectively active, but it moved only slowly westward for the next week due to its position south of Hurricane Franklin over the Bay of Campeche. In the meantime, the second tropical wave spawned Hurricane Gert over the western Atlantic, with the southern portion of the wave reaching the eastern North Pacific waters on 12 August. With the subtropical ridge rebuilding over the Gulf of Mexico, the second wave moved at a faster speed toward the west and reached the first tropical wave on 16 August (Fig. 1). The interaction of the two waves caused the development of a low by 1200 UTC 17 August about 530 n mi southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Convective banding became more organized and persistent through the day, and the low was designated as a tropical depression by 0600 UTC 18 August about 585 n mi south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
    [Show full text]
  • 4. the TROPICS—HJ Diamond and CJ Schreck, Eds
    4. THE TROPICS—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck, Eds. Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were a. Overview—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck all particularly quiet, each having about half their The Tropics in 2017 were dominated by neutral median ACE. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condi- Three tropical cyclones (TCs) reached the Saffir– tions during most of the year, with the onset of Simpson scale category 5 intensity level—two in the La Niña conditions occurring during boreal autumn. North Atlantic and one in the western North Pacific Although the year began ENSO-neutral, it initially basins. This number was less than half of the eight featured cooler-than-average sea surface tempera- category 5 storms recorded in 2015 (Diamond and tures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Schreck 2016), and was one fewer than the four re- Pacific, along with lingering La Niña impacts in the corded in 2016 (Diamond and Schreck 2017). atmospheric circulation. These conditions followed The editors of this chapter would like to insert two the abrupt end of a weak and short-lived La Niña personal notes recognizing the passing of two giants during 2016, which lasted from the July–September in the field of tropical meteorology. season until late December. Charles J. Neumann passed away on 14 November Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies warmed con- 2017, at the age of 92. Upon graduation from MIT siderably during the first several months of 2017 in 1946, Charlie volunteered as a weather officer in and by late boreal spring and early summer, the the Navy’s first airborne typhoon reconnaissance anomalies were just shy of reaching El Niño thresh- unit in the Pacific.
    [Show full text]
  • Baseline Assessment Study on Wastewater Management Belize
    Caribbean Regional Fund for Wastewater Management Baseline Assessment Study on Wastewater Management Belize December 2013 Revised January 2015 Baseline Assessment Study for the GEF CReW Project: Belize December 2013 Prepared by Dr. Homero Silva Revised January 2015 CONTENTS List of Acronyms....................................................................................................................................................iii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 2. The National Context ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Description of the Country .................................................................................................................. 4 Geographic Characteristics ................................................................................................................. 6 Economy by Sectors ............................................................................................................................ 9 The Environment .............................................................................................................................. 13 Land Use, Land Use Changes and Forestry (LULUCF) ....................................................................... 20 Disasters ..........................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • UB Powerpoint Template
    converge.colorado.edu CONVERGE ethical, coordinated, and scientifically rigorous social science, engineering, and interdisciplinary extreme events research Lori Peek Principal Investigator, CONVERGE, SSEER, and ISEEER Director, Natural Hazards Center Professor, Department of Sociology University of Colorado Boulder Session 2: Collecting, Managing, and Archiving Social and Behavioral Science Data Describe opportunities for identifying and coordinating social science researchers so that we can best share information and publish our data as well as data collection protocols using DOIs, repositories, etc. Discuss some of the overarching challenges and concerns with sharing social science data, such as privacy, data management plans and related IRB policies, duplication vs. replication, etc. converge.colorado.edu 4 Things converge.colorado.edu 1. NSF has funded the CONVERGE initiative converge.colorado.edu Why CONVERGE? Why CONVERGE? • identify and coordinate researchers and research teams; • advance hazards and disaster research; • encourage the publication of data and data collection instruments and protocols (DesignSafe Cyberinfrastructure + CONVERGE). • support and accelerate training and mentoring; • fund virtual reconnaissance, field research, and the development of novel research instruments and data collection protocols; • accelerate the development of mobile applications for social science data collection (NHERI RAPID); Why CONVERGE? 2. NSF Supports Extreme Events Research (EER) Networks converge.colorado.edu Why the EER’s? Disciplinary
    [Show full text]
  • Mobile Weather & Marine Almanac 2018
    2018 Mobile Weather and Marine Almanac 2017: A Year of Devastating Hurricanes Prepared by Assisted by Dr. Bill Williams Pete McCarty Coastal Weather Coastal Weather Research Center Research Center www.mobileweatheralmanac.com Christmas Town & Village Collectibles RobertMooreChristmasTown.com • 251-661-3608 4213 Halls Mill Road Mobile, Alabama Mon.-Sat. 10-5 Closed Sunday 2018 Mobile Weather and Marine Almanac© 28th Edition Dr. Bill Williams Pete McCarty TABLE OF CONTENTS Astronomical Events for 2018 ....................................................................... 2 Astronomical and Meteorological Calendar for 2018 .................................. 3 2017 Mobile Area Weather Highlights ........................................................ 15 2017 National Weather Highlights .............................................................. 16 2017 Hurricane Season ............................................................................... 17 2018 Hurricane Tracking Chart ................................................................... 18 2017 Hurricane Season in Review .............................................................. 20 Harvey and Irma - Structurally Different, but Major Impacts .................... 22 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 1990-2017 .............................................. 24 World Weather Extremes ............................................................................ 26 Mobile Weather Extremes ........................................................................... 28 Alabama Deep Sea
    [Show full text]
  • Persistent Hydrological Consequences of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
    RESEARCH LETTER Persistent Hydrological Consequences of Hurricane 10.1029/2018GL081591 Maria in Puerto Rico Special Section: P. W. Miller1,2 , A. Kumar1, T. L. Mote1 , F. D. S. Moraes1 , and D. R. Mishra1 The Three Major Hurricanes of 2017: Harvey, Irma and Maria 1Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA, 2Now at Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA Key Points: • Landscape vegetation metrics for Puerto Rico remained depressed Abstract In September 2017, Hurricane Maria severely defoliated Puerto Rico's landscape, coinciding below pre‐Maria values for with a series of persistent hydrological consequences involving the atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine approximately two months after components of the water cycle. During the defoliated period, the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure landfall 2 2 2 • Cloud and precipitation activity more strongly explained daily cloud activity (R PRE = 0.02; R POST = 0.40) and precipitation (R PRE = 0.19; demonstrated a stronger 2 R POST = 0.33) than before landfall, indicating that post‐Maria land‐atmosphere interactions were relationship to the atmospheric comparatively muted, with similar precipitation patterns also found following Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and thermodynamic profile during the defoliated period Georges (1998). Meanwhile, modeled post‐Maria runoff exceeded statistical expectations given the magnitude • Subsurface runoff responses to of contemporaneous precipitation. Enhanced runoff also coincided with greater sediment loads in nearshore rainfall and coastal suspended waters, increasing sediment content greater than twofold. This study offers a holistic narrative of sediment values remained elevated for two and four months, hydrospheric disturbance and recovery, whereby the instantaneous, large‐scale removal of vegetation is respectively accompanied by hydrologic changes “upstream” in the atmosphere and “downstream” in rivers and estuaries.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Damage Detection on Four Major Caribbean Islands T ⁎ Kirsten M
    Remote Sensing of Environment 229 (2019) 1–13 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Remote Sensing of Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rse Hurricane damage detection on four major Caribbean islands T ⁎ Kirsten M. de Beursa, , Noel S. McThompsona, Braden C. Owsleya, Geoffrey M. Henebryb,c a Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, United States of America b Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, United States of America c Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, United States of America ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Tropical cyclones are natural events that transform into natural disasters as they approach and reach land. In Hurricanes 2017 alone, tropical cyclones caused an estimated $215 billion in damage. While MODIS data are regularly used Droughts in the analysis of hurricanes and typhoons, damage studies typically focus on just a few events without providing MODIS a comprehensive overview and comparison across events. The MODIS record is now sufficiently long to enable Disturbance standardization in time, allowing us to extend previously developed disturbance methodology and to remove Tasseled Cap dependency on land cover datasets. We apply this new approach to detect the impact of both droughts and hurricanes on the four largest Caribbean islands since 2001. We find that the percentage of disturbed land on the four islands varies from approximately 0–50% between 2001 and 2017, with the highest percentages coinciding with major droughts in Cuba, and Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. We demonstrate that (1) Hurricane Maria resulted in significant disturbance across 50% of Puerto Rico (4549 km2), and (2) gradual recovery started about 2.5 months after the hurricane hit.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm
    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
    MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record.
    [Show full text]
  • The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication
    The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication by Melissa J. Bica B.S., Santa Clara University, 2014 M.S., University of Colorado Boulder, 2017 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Computer Science 2019 This thesis entitled: The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication written by Melissa J. Bica has been approved for the Department of Computer Science Prof. Leysia Palen (chair) Prof. Kenneth M. Anderson Dr. Julie L. Demuth Prof. Brian C. Keegan Prof. Clayton Lewis Date The final copy of this thesis has been examined by the signatories, and we find that both the content and the form meet acceptable presentation standards of scholarly work in the above mentioned discipline. IRB protocol #19-0077, 19-0109 iii Bica, Melissa J. (Ph.D., Computer Science) The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication Thesis directed by Prof. Leysia Palen Social media are increasingly used by both the public and emergency management in disasters. In disasters arising from weather-related hazards such as hurricanes, social media are especially used for communicating about risk in the pre-disaster period when the nature of the hazard is uncertain. This dissertation explores the sociotechnical aspects of hurricane risk communication, especially information diffusion, interpretation, and reaction, as it occurs on social media between members of the public and authoritative weather experts. I first investigate the kinds of hurricane risk information that were shared by authoritative sources on social media during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season and how different kinds of infor- mation diffuse temporally.
    [Show full text]
  • Regional Overview: Impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria
    REGIONAL OVERVIEW: IMPACT OF MISSION TO HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA CONFERENCE SUPPORTING DOCUMENT 1 The report was prepared with support of ACAPS, OCHA and UNDP 2 CONTENTS SITUATION OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................... 4 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................................ 5 Overall scope and scale of the impact ....................................................................................... 5 Worst affected sectors ...................................................................................................................... 5 Worst affected islands ....................................................................................................................... 6 Key priorities ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Challenges for Recovery ................................................................................................................. 7 Information Gaps ................................................................................................................................. 7 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOVERY ................................................................................ 10 Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]