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Hurricane Maria eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Maria Information from NHC Advisory 27, 5:00 PM AST Fri September 22, 2017 Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) 115 miles ENE of the southeastern Max Sustained Wind 125 mph Position Relative to Bahamas Speed: (Category 3) Land: 395 miles ESE of Nassau Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 959 mb Coordinates: 23.3 N, 71.4 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 160 miles Bearing/Speed: NNW or 335 degrees at 9 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right) both show Maria now moving northwest through Saturday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Maria’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Tropical storm conditions will continue to occur over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight. ■ Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: 8-16 inches on the Turks and Caicos Islands, 4-8 inches on Mayaguana in the Bahamas, 1-3 inches on Puerto Rico along with the eastern Bahamas, 2-6 inches on Inagua Islands and Crooked Islands in the Bahamas. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Forecast Track for Hurricane Maria Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Maria TD TS Ca t 1 Ca t 2 Ca t 3 Ca t 4 Watch/Warn Al l F c st Tr ac ks © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area - is in effect for Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern and central Bahamas. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16 Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Maria Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2017 2017 year to date (1/1/17 – 09/22/17) 13 7 4 12 TS Lee TS Katia 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/22/16) 12 4 1 TS Jose TS Irma 8 TS Harvey 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Gert HU Maria TS FranklinHU Katia 10.7 6.2 2.7 Hu Jose 1950-2011 season average TS Emily 4 TS Don HU Irma Major HU Maria HU Harvey 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Cindy Major HU Jose TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Maria is the thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and fourth major The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw twelve named storms four hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 22. Maria became the season’s seventh named hurricane on September 17. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force WiFive Day d Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds A small area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Lee, is located over the The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for winds - the central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The low time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, although the shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or circulation appears somewhat elongated. Some additional development of this exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward through National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC early next week. forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .
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