eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Maria Information from NHC Advisory 27, 5:00 PM AST Fri September 22, 2017 Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) 115 miles ENE of the southeastern Max Sustained Wind 125 mph Position Relative to Bahamas Speed: (Category 3) Land: 395 miles ESE of Nassau Est. Time & Region: N/A

Min Central Pressure: 959 mb Coordinates: 23.3 N, 71.4 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 160 miles Bearing/Speed: NNW or 335 degrees at 9 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right) both show Maria now moving northwest through Saturday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Maria’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Tropical storm conditions will continue to occur over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are

expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight.

■ Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: 8-16 inches on the Turks and Caicos Islands, 4-8 inches on Mayaguana in the Bahamas, 1-3

inches on along with the eastern Bahamas, 2-6 inches on Inagua Islands and Crooked Islands in the Bahamas. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-

threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Forecast Track for Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Maria

TD TS Ca t 1 Ca t 2 Ca t 3 Ca t 4

Watch/Warn Al l F c st Tr ac ks

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area - is in effect for Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern and central Bahamas.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 16 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2017 TS Maria Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2017 2017 year to date (1/1/17 – 09/22/17) 13 7 4 12 TS Lee TS Katia 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/22/16) 12 4 1 TS Jose TS Irma 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 8 TS Harvey TS Gert HU Maria TS FranklinHU Katia 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Emily Hu Jose 4 TS Don HU Irma Major HU Maria HU Harvey 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Cindy Major HU Jose TS Bret HU Gert Major HU Irma (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) HU Franklin Major HU Harvey 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (May25, 2017)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Maria is the thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and fourth major The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw twelve named occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that storms four hurricanes and one major hurricane by September 22. Maria became the season’s seventh named hurricane on September 17. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force WiFive Day d Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds A small area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Lee, is located over the The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm for winds - the central almost a thousand miles east-southeast of . The low time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. It also is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, although the shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or circulation appears somewhat elongated. Some additional development of this exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five days. This graphic is based on the official system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward through National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC early next week. forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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