DOCSLIB.ORG

Extreme Rainfall Associated with Hurricane Maria Over Puerto Rico

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Extreme Rainfall Associated with Hurricane Maria Over Puerto Rico RESEARCH LETTER Extreme Rainfall Associated With Hurricane Maria Over 10.1029/2019GL082077 Puerto Rico and Its Connections to Climate Special Section: Variability and Change The Three Major Hurricanes of 2017: Harvey, Irma and Maria David Keellings1 and José J. Hernández Ayala2 1Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA, 2Department of Geography, Environment, and Key Points: Planning, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA, USA • Hurricane Maria was the most extreme rainfall event when compared to 129 tropical cyclones • Return periods for Hurricane Abstract Hurricane Maria was associated with record‐breaking rainfall over Puerto Rico and caused Maria's precipitation decreased by at unprecedented flooding and landslides. Here we analyze the extreme rainfall produced by Hurricane least half across Puerto Rico, Maria using 35 stations with daily precipitation data from 1956–2016. A covariate‐based extreme value indicating increased likelihood in recent years analysis point process approach that accounts for natural climate variability and long‐term climate change • The probability of Maria's heaviest influences on extreme rainfall is applied. Hurricane Maria produced the single largest maximum rainfall precipitation has likely increased as event since 1956 and had the highest total averaged precipitation of 129 storms that have impacted the a result of long‐term climate trends island since 1956. Return periods for an event of Hurricane Maria's precipitation magnitude decreased in Supporting Information: 48.6% of stations across Puerto Rico and at least halved when averaged across the island. Within the most • Supporting Information S1 affected areas it is likely that the probability of precipitation of Maria's magnitude has increased by a factor • Figure S1 greater than 1 (best estimate 4.85) as a result of long‐term climate trends. Plain Language Summary Hurricane Maria was associated with record‐breaking rainfall over Correspondence to: Puerto Rico, which caused unprecedented flooding and landslides across the island and led to widespread D. Keellings, devastation. Here we analyze the extreme rainfall produced by Hurricane Maria using 35 historical weather [email protected] stations with daily precipitation data from 1956–2016. We use a statistical analysis technique to determine how unusual Maria's rainfall was and if Maria's rainfall can be attributed to climate variability and/or Citation: climate change. We find that Hurricane Maria produced the single largest maximum rainfall event since Keellings, D., & Hernández Ayala, J. J. (2019). Extreme rainfall associated with 1956 and had the highest precipitation of 129 storms that have impacted the island since 1956. Our study Hurricane Maria over Puerto Rico and concludes that extreme precipitation, like that of Hurricane Maria, has become much more likely in recent its connections to climate variability years and long‐term trends in atmospheric and sea surface temperature are both linked to increased and change. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 2964–2973. https://doi.org/ precipitation in Puerto Rico. These results place Maria prominently in the context of extreme storms that 10.1029/2019GL082077 have impacted Puerto Rico and indicate that such events are becoming increasingly likely. Received 17 JAN 2019 Accepted 25 FEB 2019 1. Introduction Accepted article online 4 MAR 2019 Published online 12 MAR 2019 On 20 September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico as a strong Category 4 hurricane. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are not uncommon to the island, the long‐term average for TC landfalls in the northern Caribbean where Puerto Rico is located is one per year (Pielke et al., 2003), the National Hurricane Center Report (2018) on Maria highlights it as the strongest hurricane to make land- fall on the island since 1928 (Pasch et al., 2018). Maria broke rainfall records that resulted in unprecedented flooding and mudslides and combined with sustained winds of 249 km/hr at landfall that contributed to a near complete loss of the electrical grid and municipal water supplies for 3.4 million residents (Pasch et al., 2018). All infrastructure was affected with 80% destruction of communication systems, including uti- lity poles and cellular towers, and ultimately the storm resulted in a cost of 90 billion dollars in damage between Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which exceeds the previously most costly storm to affect Puerto Rico directly, Hurricane Georges in 1998, by 85 billion dollars (Pasch et al., 2018). The official death toll of Hurricane Maria is 64 deaths, though a mortality study by Kishore et al. (2018) found the number of excess deaths associated with Maria is more than 70 times the official estimate bringing the total count closer to 5,000. Disaster‐related deaths are difficult to determine. While direct causes of death, such as flying debris or drowning, are relatively easy to assign, indirect deaths resulting from delayed medical treatment or wor- sening of preexisting conditions are much more difficult to capture (Kishore et al., 2018). Further hindering ‐ fi ©2019. American Geophysical Union. this effort in Puerto Rico is the requirement that every hurricane related death be con rmed by the Institute All Rights Reserved. of Forensic Sciences, which requires bodies to be brought to San Juan and delays the issuance of a death KEELLINGS AND HERNÁNDEZ AYALA 2964 Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2019GL082077 certificate (Kishore et al., 2018). A recent report concluded that the total excess mortality associated with Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico was 2,975, which is 46 times the official government estimate (Santos‐ Burgoa et al., 2018). Additionally, estimates of between 114,000 and 212,000 residents are expected to migrate away from the island in the first year, and up to 14% of the total population by the end of the second year following the event (Meléndez & Hinojosa, 2017). Several recent studies have focused on the relationship between climate change and the intensity of hurri- canes. Mann and Emanuel (2006) found that the underlying factors in the increasing trends of Atlantic hur- ricane intensity appear to be the influence of primarily anthropogenic forced large‐scale warming, while Elsner (2006) found causal evidence that increasing near‐surface air temperatures lead to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) as evidence to support a hypothesis of human‐induced climate change influ- encing the intensity of TCs in the Atlantic. No trend in hurricane frequency has been detected. Other studies have looked at the influences that teleconnections, such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and anthropogenic influences, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), have on hurricane rainfall variability. A recent study by Risser and Wehner (2017) used a covariate‐based extreme value analysis (EVA) approach where they found that human‐induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19% and increased the chance of the observed precipitation by a factor of at least 3.5. Emanuel (2017) exam- ined the annual probability of Hurricane Harvey's observed rainfall finding that it had become 6 times more likely since the end of the twentieth century and that a similar magnitude event will be roughly 18 times more likely by 2081–2100. Another study found that Hurricane Harvey was 3 times more likely due to anthropogenic climate change (Van Oldenborgh et al., 2017). Patricola and Wehner (2018) examined the anthropogenic influence on major TCs finding that relative to preindustrial conditions, climate change has intensified extreme rainfall in Hurricanes Katrina, Irma, and Maria. Here we focus on two main questions regarding the rainfall associated with Hurricane Maria. How does the extreme rainfall associated with Hurricane Maria compare to the precipitation climatology of TCs in Puerto Rico and how much of the rain attributed to the storm can be explained by natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change? To address these questions, data from 47 sites are used to estimate Hurricane Maria's rainfall over the 3‐day period the storm was within a 500‐km radius of the island. Historical data from 35 stations are used in an EVA point process model to examine the relationship between modes of natural variability (North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and ENSO), long‐term trends associated with anthropogenic climate change (atmospheric CO2, global tem- perature, SST, and Cloud cover), and the extreme rainfall associated with Hurricane Maria. Changes in return periods associated with Maria's peak precipitation are estimated for each of 35 historical stations. 2. Data Six‐hourly TC positions were extracted from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship for the years 1970–2017 (Knapp et al., 2010). A Geographic Information System was utilized to calculate a 500‐km buffer around the island, allowing us to define the portion of Maria's track that was within the radius. Maria spent 3 days within the radius from 19 to 21 September 2017. This method has been used by researchers examining TC rainfall in Puerto Rico and the extreme floods associated with those events (Hernández Ayala et al., 2017; Hernández Ayala & Matyas, 2016, 2018). Those studies identified 86 TCs within the 500‐km radius around Puerto Rico from 1970–2010. In this study we expanded their data set to include an extra 43 TCs that were within the 500‐km radius during 1956–1970 and 2011–2017 for a total of 129 storms. Daily rainfall totals were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) for 19 stations and from the U.S. Geological Survey for 28 rain gauges with daily data for Hurricane Maria, for a total of 47 sites. Daily rainfall totals were obtained from the NCEI for 35 historical stations with a minimum of 70% of observations during the hurricane season that spans from 1 June to 30 November for a period that begins 1 June 1956 and ends 30 November 2016.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Significant Loss Report
    NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM Bureau and Statistical Agent W-01049 3019-01 MEMORANDUM TO: Write Your Own (WYO) Principal Coordinators and NFIP Servicing Agent FROM: WYO Clearinghouse DATE: July 18, 2001 SUBJECT: Significant Loss Report Enclosed is a listing of significant flooding events that occurred between February 1978 and October 2000. Only those events that had more than 1500 losses are included on the list. These data were compiled for WYO Companies and others to use to remind their customers of the impact of past flooding events. Please use this information in your marketing efforts as you feel it is appropriate. If you have any questions, please contact your WYO Program Coordinator. Enclosure cc: Vendors, IBHS, FIPNC, WYO Standards Committee, WYO Marketing Committee, ARCHIVEDGovernment Technical Representative APRIL 2018 Suggested Routing: Claims, Marketing, Underwriting 7700 HUBBLE DRIVE • LANHAM, MD 20706 • (301) 731-5300 COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION, under contract to the FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, is the Bureau and Statistical Agent for the National Flood Insurance Program NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENTS REPORT EVENT YEAR # PD LOSSES AMOUNT PD ($) AVG PD LOSS Massachusetts Flood Feb. 1978 Feb-78 2,195 $20,081,479 $9,149 Louisiana Flood May 1978 May-78 7,284 $43,288,709 $5,943 WV, IN, KY, OH Floods Dec 1978 Dec-78 1,879 $11,934,512 $6,352 PA, CT, MA, NJ, NY, RI Floods Jan-79 8,826 $31,487,015 $3,568 Texas Flood April 1979 Apr-79 1,897 $19,817,668 $10,447 Florida Flood April 1979 Apr-79
    [Show full text]
  • Puerto Rico Post-2017 Hurricane Season: Initial Insights & Outlook November 2017
    Puerto Rico Post-2017 Hurricane Season: Initial Insights & Outlook November 2017 First Thoughts April 2006 to August 2017, representing a loss of roughly 300,000 private and public-sector jobs, the unemployment rate has remained in double-digits for decades, and the labor force participation rate is In the aftermath of a catastrophic natural disaster like the one below 40%.3 A largely obsolete economic model, an underperforming experienced in Puerto Rico during September 2017, an acute public sector with weak public institutions, loss of competitiveness sense of uncertainty often takes hold of the affected people and in an increasingly globalized marketplace, burdensome costs of organizations. Households, business firms, nonprofit entities, and doing business, and poor regulatory quality that hamper growth and the public sector need timely, objective, accurate and reliable productivity, are some of the main factors that explain Puerto Rico’s information and insights to better inform their strategic planning economic stagnation.4 and other decision-making processes. This special V2A issue, the first of a series of issues, seeks to narrow this information gap Further intensifying Puerto Rico’s economic and humanitarian by providing a preliminary assessment and outlook under this woes is the government’s poor fiscal health and liquidity risks, new Post-Hurricane María reality. It also serves as a succinct, yet which limit the implementation of traditional countercyclical fiscal comprehensive one-stop read containing up-to-date and relevant measures. Overburdened by an over $70 billion debt load and an information from a variety of sources. additional $50 billion in unfunded pension liabilities, Puerto Rico filed for bankruptcy protection on May 1, 2017 under Title III of While the challenges ahead for Puerto Rico cannot be overstated the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability and the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction process will likely Act (PROMESA) enacted on June 30, 2016.
    [Show full text]
  • Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
    8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km).
    [Show full text]
  • Background Hurricane Katrina
    PARTPART 33 IMPACTIMPACT OFOF HURRICANESHURRICANES ONON NEWNEW ORLEANSORLEANS ANDAND THETHE GULFGULF COASTCOAST 19001900--19981998 HURRICANEHURRICANE--CAUSEDCAUSED FLOODINGFLOODING OFOF NEWNEW ORLEANSORLEANS •• SinceSince 1559,1559, 172172 hurricaneshurricanes havehave struckstruck southernsouthern LouisianaLouisiana ((ShallatShallat,, 2000).2000). •• OfOf these,these, 3838 havehave causedcaused floodingflooding inin NewNew thethe OrleansOrleans area,area, usuallyusually viavia LakeLake PonchartrainPonchartrain.. •• SomeSome ofof thethe moremore notablenotable eventsevents havehave included:included: SomeSome ofof thethe moremore notablenotable eventsevents havehave included:included: 1812,1812, 1831,1831, 1860,1860, 1915,1915, 1947,1947, 1965,1965, 1969,1969, andand 20052005.. IsaacIsaac MonroeMonroe ClineCline USWS meteorologist Isaac Monroe Cline pioneered the study of tropical cyclones and hurricanes in the early 20th Century, by recording barometric pressures, storm surges, and wind velocities. •• Cline charted barometric gradients (right) and tracked the eyes of hurricanes as they approached landfall. This shows the event of Sept 29, 1915 hitting the New Orleans area. • Storm or tidal surges are caused by lifting of the oceanic surface by abnormal low atmospheric pressure beneath the eye of a hurricane. The faster the winds, the lower the pressure; and the greater the storm surge. At its peak, Hurricane Katrina caused a surge 53 feet high under its eye as it approached the Louisiana coast, triggering a storm surge advisory of 18 to 28 feet in New Orleans (image from USA Today). StormStorm SurgeSurge •• The surge effect is minimal in the open ocean, because the water falls back on itself •• As the storm makes landfall, water is lifted onto the continent, locally elevating the sea level, much like a tsunami, but with much higher winds Images from USA Today •• Cline showed that it was then northeast quadrant of a cyclonic event that produced the greatest storm surge, in accordance with the drop in barometric pressure.
    [Show full text]
  • Persistent Hydrological Consequences of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
    RESEARCH LETTER Persistent Hydrological Consequences of Hurricane 10.1029/2018GL081591 Maria in Puerto Rico Special Section: P. W. Miller1,2 , A. Kumar1, T. L. Mote1 , F. D. S. Moraes1 , and D. R. Mishra1 The Three Major Hurricanes of 2017: Harvey, Irma and Maria 1Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA, 2Now at Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA Key Points: • Landscape vegetation metrics for Puerto Rico remained depressed Abstract In September 2017, Hurricane Maria severely defoliated Puerto Rico's landscape, coinciding below pre‐Maria values for with a series of persistent hydrological consequences involving the atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine approximately two months after components of the water cycle. During the defoliated period, the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure landfall 2 2 2 • Cloud and precipitation activity more strongly explained daily cloud activity (R PRE = 0.02; R POST = 0.40) and precipitation (R PRE = 0.19; demonstrated a stronger 2 R POST = 0.33) than before landfall, indicating that post‐Maria land‐atmosphere interactions were relationship to the atmospheric comparatively muted, with similar precipitation patterns also found following Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and thermodynamic profile during the defoliated period Georges (1998). Meanwhile, modeled post‐Maria runoff exceeded statistical expectations given the magnitude • Subsurface runoff responses to of contemporaneous precipitation. Enhanced runoff also coincided with greater sediment loads in nearshore rainfall and coastal suspended waters, increasing sediment content greater than twofold. This study offers a holistic narrative of sediment values remained elevated for two and four months, hydrospheric disturbance and recovery, whereby the instantaneous, large‐scale removal of vegetation is respectively accompanied by hydrologic changes “upstream” in the atmosphere and “downstream” in rivers and estuaries.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm
    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
    MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record.
    [Show full text]
  • Regional Overview: Impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria
    REGIONAL OVERVIEW: IMPACT OF MISSION TO HURRICANES IRMA AND MARIA CONFERENCE SUPPORTING DOCUMENT 1 The report was prepared with support of ACAPS, OCHA and UNDP 2 CONTENTS SITUATION OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................... 4 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................................ 5 Overall scope and scale of the impact ....................................................................................... 5 Worst affected sectors ...................................................................................................................... 5 Worst affected islands ....................................................................................................................... 6 Key priorities ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Challenges for Recovery ................................................................................................................. 7 Information Gaps ................................................................................................................................. 7 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOVERY ................................................................................ 10 Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Maria Situation Report #1 As of 9:00Pm Ast on September 20, 2017
    Resilience Way, Lower Estate, St. Michael Tel: (246) 434-4880 Fax: (246) 271-3660 Email: [email protected] Visit our website: www.cdema.org HURRICANE MARIA SITUATION REPORT #1 AS OF 9:00PM AST ON SEPTEMBER 20, 2017 SYNOPSIS OF HURRICANE MARIA Maria, the 13th named hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, became a category 5 hurricane near the Leeward Islands on Monday September 18th, 2017. Hurricane Maria impacted Dominica at approximately 9:35pm on September 18th as an extremely strong hurricane with wind speeds of 155 mph. Maria then impacted St. Kitts and Nevis and Antigua and Barbuda on September 19th, 2017 and the Virgin Islands September 19 – 20, 2017. At 800 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 67.5 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical storm- force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force aircraft remains at 958 mb (28.29 inches). PROGNOSIS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that on the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening.
    [Show full text]
  • Bridges – Winter 2018
    Brethren Disaster Ministries Rebuilding Homes • Nurturing Children • Responding Globally Vol. 19, Winter 2018 Another record year for INSIDE Children’s Disaster Services CDS 2017 Response Statistics ........2 by Kathy Fry-Miller CDS Spring 2018 workshops ..........3 Children’s Disaster Services (CDS) had Several volunteers served on more CDS 2017 Workshops ....................3 an exceptionally full year again in 2017 than one response in 2017. One repeat Hurricane Maria Response and with a record number of 16 domestic responder, Pat Krabacher, shared, “In Recovery in Puerto Rico ................4 disaster responses, including two critical both California and Texas we saw Rebuild Program Updates................5 responses—the mass casualty shooting in amazing generosity poured out all around Hurricane Response in the U.S. October in Las Vegas, Nev., and the us with ordinary Americans doing Virgin Islands ................................6 Amtrak derailment in Tacoma, Wash., something to help. We were loved by Mission Alive conference ................6 in December. CDS had been able to people who served us and provided food, Volunteering at any age can be build up our volunteer base and a place to lay our heads, and security guys life-changing ..................................7 leadership support over the past few who sat up all night out in the cold while BDM 2017 Rebuild Responses ......7 years with support from the Christian we slept. As we were loved, so we too BDM 2017 Project Expenses ..........8 Church (Disciples of Christ) and United were changed by that love.” BDM 2017 Project Funding ..........8 Methodist Committee on Relief. This Both CDS associate director Kathy BDM 2017 Project Expenses ........8 gave us the capacity to respond to these Fry-Miller and program assistant Sherry Hope is alive in Eureka, Mo.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Services Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center's Role
    Forecasting Hurricane Storm Surge on the Mississippi River David Reed Bob Stucky National Weather Service Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Today’s Talk • The Problem – Surges from Hurricanes • Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge Heights (SLOSH Model) • Dynamic Wave Operational Model (DWOPER) • Merging These Together Hurricane Betsy – September 11, 1965 (Mississippi to Forecast River Surges River - Louisiana) Hurricane Storm Surge The Problem • Hurricanes can cause the Mississippi River to rise rapidly due to Storm Surge • Ships can be grounded or swamped due to these rapid rises Hurricane Betsy – September 11, 1965 (Mississippi River – Louisiana) Hurricane Storm Surge – The Problem • Flood gates and loading docks must be closed which takes time to complete Hurricane Betsy – September 11, 1965 SLOSH Model • Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge Heights (SLOSH Model) • Forecasted storm surge from hurricanes based on Forward Speed Intensity Track Size SLOSH Model – Cont’d • SLOSH can be run for 35 grids/basins along the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts • Each basin grid is a continuously changing polar grid • Lake Pontchartrain basin used in our Lake Ponchartrain Basin analysis (outlined in white) SLOSH Model – Cont’d • Higher resolution inland • Contains topography and levees which is periodically updated SLOSH Model • Model is run about 24 hours prior to landfall based on TPC forecast • Output provided to NWS offices in a binary file • SLOSH Display program allows for animation of output from SLOSH • Local software determines hydrograph at West Pointe
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Package
    Hurricane Manual This manual has been prepared in consideration and concern for all residents of the communities proudly managed by: Caribbean Property Management, Inc. 12301 SW 132 Ct., Miami, Florida 33186 Phone (305) 251-3848 Fax (305) 251-3849 www.caribbeanproperty.cc 2 | P a g e Safety Tips Before, During, and After the Storm Before the Hurricane Season Begins Develop a plan. Know your homes vulnerability to the threats above - surge, wind, and flooding. Check your supplies - water, batteries, food. For information on developing a Hurricane Supply kit, see our page on that topic. Know where you can evacuate to - friends, relatives, a hotel? Know when to take action - Watch vs Warning WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible in the specified area of the WATCH, usually within 36 hours. WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area of the WARNING, usually within 24 hours. Remember that there is no such thing as a "minor hurricane." Category 1 and 2 hurricanes still can do significant damage. Prepare before a Watch or Warning is issued and be ready to evacuate when the Watch comes or earlier if so instructed. An Approaching Storm As a storm approaches, you should prepare your unit or house. Some things to consider: Turn down the temperature on your freezer and refrigerator as low as possible. This will buy you more time in the event of a power loss. 24 to 48 hours before will cool the food. Avoid opening them whenever possible. If you are evacuating, probably unnecessary. Before you evacuate, call at least one person out of state to let them know your plans.
    [Show full text]