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An Analysis of Voting Patterns In AN ANALYSIS OF VOTING PATTERNS IN MOBILE, ALABAMA, 1948-1970 APPROVED: Graduate Committee: Committee Committee Mexnbe Committee Member Committee Cnairr^n of Departr^ftt of Political Science Dean of Vthe Graduate School Jf 4, / 'jf Voyles, James Everett, An Analysis of Voting Patterns in Mobile, Alabama, 1948-1970. Doctor of Philosophy (Po- litical Science), May 1973, 170 pp., 25 tables, 70 titles. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the voting trends in Mobile, Alabama, which have developed since 1948; particular emphasis is placed upon the role of the Negro vote in Mobile politics before and after the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The major sources of data for this study were the official Mobile County election returns, which were made available through the Mobile County Pro- bate Court. This work is organized into six chapters. Chapter One is a survey of scholarly literature in the area of Southern politics, to provide a background for the study. Chapter Two is a statement of the hypotheses to be tested and the de- sign of the study. Various demographic data relating to Mobile voting are presented in this chapter. The third chapter deals with the black vote in Mobile. Emphasis is placed on the "black bloc vote," which has traditionally been controlled by the Nonpartisan Voters League. Black voter turnout is also discussed in this chapter. Chapters Four and Five are the crux of the study. Both make use of 1 A quantitative methods as a means of analysis of voting pat- terns in Mobile. The thirty-two wards in Mobile are broken down into seven groups on the basis of race and economic level, and voting patterns between the groups are compared through use of the Pearson Product Moment Coefficient, as well as by simple percentages. Chapter Four traces the evolution of Mobile voting patterns from 1948 to 1970. Chapter Five is concerned with the evolution of the Repub- lican Party in Mobile, particularly since 1964. This study finds that there have been important shifts in voting patterns in Mobile since 1948. Prior to the 1960's, candidates who were successful in winning elections in Mobile generally received majorities from voting coali- tions that cut across economic and racial lines. After the civil rights movement of the 19601 s began, voting coalitions in Mobile shifted to reflect a racial conflict in voting. This is best shown by the fact that, prior to 1960, in the elections studied in this paper, the candidate who won a city- wide majority always carried a majority in the black wards. Since 1960, only one candidate who carried a majority in the black wards has been successful in winning a citywide race, and he was defeated in 1969. 4A There is no evidence of any important coalition based on economic level in Mobile elections. There simply has not been a viable coalition of "have-nots" formed to compete politically with the "haves." This paper also finds that the Republican party is emerging as the majority party in Mobile. Since 1964, the Republican party has been the frequent custodian of a voting coalition involving whites of all economics levels united against the blacks. The Republican party has gained strength by attracting white voters who are dissatisfied with the national Democratic party. This paper concludes that black political power has actually lessened since the 1960's. Despite the growing numbers of black voters in Mobile, Negroes have less influence today in Mobile politics than in the 1950's when relatively few blacks could vote. Blacks are a visible issue in voting today and candidates with black support in Mobile are likely to be defeated. It is presently the Republican party that is gaining from the racial patterns in Mobile voting. Unless white dissatisfaction with the national Democratic party les- sens, it is likely that the Republican party will become the majority party in Mobile within the next few years. AN ANALYSIS OF VOTING PATTERNS IN MOBILE, ALABAMA, 1948-1970 DISSERTATION Presented to the Graduate Council of the North Texas State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By James Everett Voyles, B. S., M. A. Denton, Texas May, 1973 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES iv LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS v Chapter I. INTRODUCTION . 1 II. THE RELATIONSHIP OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS TO MOBILE POLITICS 28 Hypotheses and Mode of Testing Correlation of Demographic Features Factors to be Examined Demographic Characteristics of Wards The White Middle Class Silk Stocking Wards Low-Income Racially Mixed Wards The Black Wards Middle Income Black Wards Statistical Description III. THE BLACK VOTE 57 The Pink Ballot. The White Ballot and Side Deals Types of Elections IV. MOBILE VOTING PATTERNS, 1948-1970 The City Commission Races Gubernatorial Races Presidential Elections V. THE REPUBLICAN VOTE. 128 VI. CONCLUSIONS 154 LIST OF TABLES i Page Table I. Demographic Characteristics of Mobile Wards ... 48 II. Turnout in Selected Elections 71 III. Comparison of Vote for Non-Candidate Elections. 150 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Page Chart 1. Voter Registration in Mobile 37 2. Turnout and SES Group 69 Page Figure 1. Negro Voter Turnout 64 2. Negro Voter Turnout, 1967 67 3. City Commission Race, 1953 84 4. City Commission Race, 1957 87 5. City Commission Race, 1961 91 6. City Commission Rcice, 1965 93 7. City Commission Race, 1969 99 8. Gubernatorial Primary, 1954. 102 9. Gubernatorial Run-Off Primary, 1958 104 10. Gubernatorial Primaries, 1962, 1966, 1970. 105 11. Presidential Race, 1948. 1.08 12. Presidential Race, 1952 109 13. Presidential Race, 1956 Ill 14. Presidential Race, 1960 113 15. Presidential Race, 1964 11.5 v Figure Page 16. Presidential Race, 1968 117 17. Comparison of Black/White Voting 120 18. Comparison of Low/High Income White Wards. 123 19. Republican Vote 145 20. Republican Vote in High and Low Economic Groups 147 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION For many years following the War Between the States, the South was the most politically static region of the nation. Two inseparable themes predominated in Southern politics: the one-party system, arid disfranchisement of the Negro. The past two decades, however, have seen far- reaching changes in the heretofore static politics of this region. Federal intervention in the process of regis- tration and voting, culminating .in the Voting Rights Act of 1965, helped to swell the ranks of Negro voters in the South. During this same time period, the Republican party enjoyed phenomenal growth in many Southern states. There have been differences of opinion relative to the role of the Negro voter in the South. Three major schools of thought developed. The first, as represented by Alexander Heard, expressed speculative optimism concern- ing the impact Negroes would have on Southern politics should they be allowed to vote in large numbers. This same cautious optimism is evident in the work of V. 0. Key. His classic work, Southern Politics,"*" still stands as the most definitive study of the South as a political region. Using aggregate vote data collected county by county, Key constructed a state-by-state description of Southern poli- tics. His basic observation was that the South was a one-party conservative area due to the lack of Negro voters | and the general low interest shown in political matters by the population as a whole. He wrote. Southern sectionalism and the special character of $outhern political institutions has to be attributed in the main to the Negro. The one-party system, suffrage restrictions departing from demo- cratic norms, low levels of voting and of political interest, and all the consequences of these political arrangements and practices must be traced ultimately to this one factor. All of which amounts to saying that the predominant consideration of the architec- ture of southern political institutions has been to assjare locally a subordination of the Negro popu- lation and, externally, to block threatened interference from the outside with these local arrangements.^ The absence of the Negro vote, coupled with the low turnout b|y the lower-income whites, produced an upper-class bias to Sjouthern politics. Heard notes that, "the absence ^V.j 0. Key, Southern Pol it ics (New York, 1949) . 2 Ibid., p. 665. from the electorate of huge amounts of Negroes weighs the electorate in favor of the 'haves.' Politicians would feel more need to cultivate lower-income groups if more of them voted.Key forecast that "if the blue-collar vote in the South should double, southern conservatives in Con- 4 gress would probably become less numerous." A second school of thought evolved out of the con- cern for Negro rights originating in the civil rights movement of the 1960's. This school was characterized by studies dealing with Negro political attitudes and the effects these attitudes would have on black voting patterns once Negroes were allowed to vote in large numbers. Adopt- ing the basic tenets of Heard and Key that Southern politics would become more progressive when blacks received the vote, the writers in the 1960's became .interested in factors relating to Negro registration and began to predict the end of Southern conservatism when white domination was terminated. 3 Alexander Heard, A Two Party South? (Chapel Hill, N.C., 1952) pp. 12-13. 4 Key, op,, cxt. , p. 105 In 1962, Charles Steinberg traced the history of Negro 5 voting from Reconstruction to the 1960 Civil Rights Act. He found that, despite the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amend- ments, the Negro was faced with obstacles: economic reprisals, literacy tests, "grandfather clauses." Court suits seemed of no avail; not only was the process long and expensive, but as soon as one method of Negro disfranchise- ment was struck down, another was developed.
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