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6-1991

Cultural Issues and Images in the 1988 Presidential Campaign - Why the Democrats Lost Again

Joel A. Lieske Cleveland State University, [email protected]

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Original Citation Lieske, Joel. 1991. "Cultural Issues and Images in the 1988 Presidential Campaign - Why the Democrats Lost Again." PS: Political Science and Politics 24:180-187.

Repository Citation Lieske, Joel A., "Cultural Issues and Images in the 1988 Presidential Campaign - Why the Democrats Lost Again" (1991). Political Science Faculty Publications. 7. https://engagedscholarship.csuohio.edu/clpolsci_facpub/7

This Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science Department at EngagedScholarship@CSU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of EngagedScholarship@CSU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Cultural Issues and Images in the 1988 Presidential Campaign: Why the Democrats Lost-Again!

Joel Lieske, Cleveland State University

The culturalissues and Dukakisnot our ignorance. Thus we are enter- ity. It is my contention that Bush respondingto themput a wall up between tained and even amused the Dukakisand votershe couldhave gotten. by won in 1988 because he was more The wall got so thickthat peopleforgot tongue-in-cheek interpretations of successful in appealing to the cultural aboutthe economicissues. 1988 by leading salon commentators preferences (issues) and stereotypes Alan LaPierre,Executive Director (Erikson 1989; Sigelman 1989, (images) of those groups who consti- AlabamaDemocratic Party 1990). ' But we are still left with the tute the real, cultural majority in New York Times, Nov. 1988 10, uncomfortable feeling that, as a pro- American politics. fession, we know much less than we My case rests on the following How do you explain the outcomes think. So when we are challenged by contentions: of modern presidential elections? yet another paradigm, one which This is the central dilemma of Amer- contends that presidential campaigns (1) That the United States is a ican politics. Why, for instance, did are media horse races run on video diverse, multicultural society com- the Democrats, the so-called majority and audio sound tracks, and by posed of competing racial, ethnic, party, lose again in 1988? And why implication, that American voters are religious, and regional subcultures. have they gone down to defeat in rootless consumers of political This is a political axiom that many five of the last six presidential elec- "sound bites," it is time to take liberal Democrats seem to accept in tions? Curiously, there appears to be intellectual stock (Joslyn 1984; Orren theory but reject in practice. On the no dearth of answers to these and Polsby 1980). one hand, America's cultural plural- questions. My position in this debate is as ism is not denied. But on the other, Many pundits, such as neocon- follows. While I agree that the media it is often claimed that the nation's servative William Schneider (1988), is playing a much greater role in racial, ethnic, religious, and regional have argued that the Democrats are presidential elections, I feel that its divisions are not that important now, too liberal to win a national election. impact has been greatly exaggerated are waning over time, and will ulti- Others maintain that presidential by journalistic hype. True, the elec- mately become insignificant (Erikson, elections are retrospective referenda toral environment today is far dif- Luttbeg, and Tedin 1989). Yet, there on the economy and peace issues. ferent than it was 40 years ago at the is a growing mass of evidence which According to this view, the incum- dawn of television. Americans are suggests that ethnocultural dif- bent party never loses when times are generally more urbanized, educated, ferences in American society are still prosperous and the nation is at mobile, affluent, individualistic, and persistent and consequential. And peace. Still others argue that presi- politically sophisticated. Consequent- rather than decreasing, they may dential elections are actually beauty ly, they are also more independent actually be on the rise. This evidence contests in which voters select the than ever before-about one-third includes recent census data on the candidate who demonstrates the most consider themselves independent- racial and ethnic identifications of attractive combination of personality and therefore more receptive to the Americans, survey data on church traits, leadership qualities, and polit- campaign appeals of individual can- membership, subcultural studies of ical credentials (Miller, Wattenberg, didates. But the medium only com- American government and politics, and Malanchuk 1986). Yet others municates the message. It is not the and cultural explanations of Ameri- contend that most losing Democratic message itself. can political behavior. candidates have run notoriously inept In order to understand the growing As Leege, Lieske, and Wald (1989: campaigns. In the Yiddish vernacu- role of the media and the changing 31) have observed, "Racial and eth- lar, Dukakis was a "Putz." Finally, character of presidential campaign nic diversity-and the group con- some analysts (Burns, Peltason, and politics, it is my thesis that political sciousness that accompanies them- Cronin 1989: 276-77) try to please scientists must first understand the have accelerated rapidly in recent everyone by advancing umbrella ex- cultural realities of American politics years."2 In 1960, they point out, the planations that include all of these and the kinds of issues that concern United States was 88.6% white, arguments. most voters. Thus I will argue that 10.5% black, and less than 1%o Unfortunately, none of these ex- modern presidential elections are Asian and other. By 1985, they note, planations, taken individually, is par- being increasingly decided, not by the the predominant group, white ticularly persuasive. And most ap- socioeconomic issues traditionally Anglos, had dropped in population pear to be little more than post hoc emphasized by liberal Democrats, but share by 10%0while blacks increased rationalizations. Of course, when by a new set of cultural issues, first to 12%. Hispanics constituted something cannot be fully under- identified by Richard Scammon and another 7% while Asians and others stood, we are prone to make fun of Ben Wattenberg in The Real Major- grew to 2.7%. Based on census pro-

180 PS: PoliticalScience & Politics Why the Democrats Lost-Again! jections, they note that by the year Along with economic divisions, recent presidential elections, how- 2000, whites will constitute less than these cultural divisions have become ever, these groups have become 74% of the population; while blacks, intertwined with other dimensions of increasingly divided not only over Hispanics, and Asians will comprise social stratification, producing what longstanding social welfare issues another 13%, 9%, and 4%, respec- Leege et al. (1989: 34) describe as an that formerly united them but also tively. "increasing segmentation of the over a new set of racial (commonly But race is not the only cultural American population by life-style labeled as civil rights) and cultural cleavage that divides Americans. In choices." As a growing number of life-style issues. The new issues in- 1980, the U.S. census also included a scholars have documented, this seg- clude special federal aid programs question on ethnic ancestry: "In mentation is observable in the racial, for racial minorities, affirmative addition to being American, what do ethnic, and social segregation of resi- action, busing, drug abuse, urban you consider your main ethnic group dential neighborhoods (Weiss 1988: crime, bilingual education, illegal or nationality group?" Based on xii; Robbins 1989), ethnocultural immigration, capital punishment, responses to this question, over 118 conflicts within the American states school prayer, abortion, homosexual million Americans (52.3%) classified (Peirce and Hagstrom 1984), and the rights, and gun control. Though few themselves into a single ancestry division of the U.S. into identifiable are explicitly racial, ethnic, or group; some 69 million more political subcultures and cultural religious, most have racial, ethnic, (30.8%) designated a multiple ances- regions (Elazar 1970; Gastil 1975; and religious overtones. try group. Thus, of the 226 million Garreau 1981). These new issues have emerged, in Americans surveyed in the 1980 cen- Finally, historical studies of the part, because of growing racial- sus, a surprising 83.1% identified American electorate suggest that par- ethnic, religious, and subcultural with a nationality other than tisan divisions and voting behavior divisions in the American electorate; American. are best understood in terms of the partly because of the declining im- Though they are declining as a political preferences of subcultural portance of the social welfare and proportion of the population, the groups operating within different foreign policy issues in American two dominant ethnic groups in regions and locales (Kleppner 1970; politics;4 and partly because of American politics are those who Kelley 1979). And rather than dis- cultural and life-style changes that claim British (22.4%) and German appearing, subcultural differences are have occurred in American society (22.3%) ancestry. Along with Ameri- still crucial in understanding current during the past quarter century. The cans of Scandinavian (1.1 ) ances- party loyalties and voting in recent social welfare issues, of course, were try, these so-called "mainline" presidential elections (Lieske 1988a, key to partisan divisions during the groups constitute a cultural plurality, 1988b). Moreover, their effects ap- 1930s and early 1940s following the if not political majority, in American pear to be independent of socio- Great Depression. Foreign policy politics. 3 Historically, these groups economic differences and regionally issues gained importance during the were among the "first effective set- specific. Using aggregate data for all Cold War, circa the late 1940s and tlers" in most states and regions of 3,164 U.S. counties and a rigorous the 1950s. The civil rights issues the country (Gastil 1975). In addi- test for compositional effects, I have came into prominence during the tion, they share a common Germanic shown that there are significant sub- struggle for black equality around tongue and cultural tradition in the cultural differences in the 1980 U.S. the late 1950s and early 1960s. And family of Indo-European languages. presidential vote, and that the factors the cultural issues have steadily And they also share common re- which shape the vote differ from one gained political saliency since the late ligious traditions in the Protestant region of the country to the next 1960s. wing of Christianity. (Lieske 1989). These factors include Since Dukakis's liberalism became Moreover, contrary to the secular differences in racial origin, ethnic a major issue in the 1988 campaign, claims of some sociologists and ancestry, religious affiliation, social it is important to understand what futurists, religion and religious diver- life-style, and political partisanship. the terms "liberal" and "conserva- sity continue to play a vital role in Consistent with cultural theory, I tive" mean today within the context the life of the nation. Relative to have shown that these factors can of these different issue domains. On other advanced industrial democra- also predict the candidate preferences social welfare issues, a liberal is cies, the United States stands out in of individual voters in the 1988 presi- someone who favors more govern- the high proportion (58 percent ver- dential election. ment intervention in the economy; a sus middle teens to middle thirties conservative favors less. On foreign for other countries) of its citizens (2) That the Democratic New Deal policy, a liberal is someone who who say that religion is still "very Coalition is now sharply divided on believes in the "limits" of military important" to them (Erikson, Lutt- most domestic policy issues including power and favors bilateral and multi- beg, and Tedin 1988). It also stands a new set of racial and cultural life- lateral peace negotiations; a conser- out in the high proportion of Ameri- style issues. vative is someone who emphasizes cans who claim church membership Forged by Franklin Roosevelt, the the "moral" obligations of military (51 percent) and the large and grow- New Deal Coalition united white intervention to "keep the peace" and ing number of church denominations southerners, northern white ethnics, favors a policy of "peace through (some 111) to which they belong labor, liberals, and racial minorities strength." On civil rights issues, a (Wald 1987; Glenmary Research around common economic interests liberal is someone who favors federal Center 1982). following the Great Depression. In action on behalf of racial minorities; June 1991 181 Features a conservative favors benign neglect and white ethnics. Unfortunately, the vention was an electoral and media and "color-blind" racial policies. Massachusetts governor's progressive disaster for the Democrats, compara- Finally, on the cultural issues, a lib- positions on further extensions of the ble in effect to the 1968 and 1972 eral is someone who favors cultural social welfare state (in the tradition debacles. pluralism and is considered more of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Tru- Opinion polls show that Dukakis tolerant of social disorder; a con- man, and John Kennedy) and foreign went from a 10 percent lead over servative is someone who favors cul- policy did not count for much Bush before the Democratic Conven- tural orthodoxy and is more intol- because the country was at peace and tion to a 10 percent disadvantage erant of social disorder. apparently prosperous. On the other after the Republican Convention In Table 1, I present the average hand, his positions on domestic (Opinion Roundup 1988: 36-7).8 The liberal-conservative scores for each spending, taxes, the defense budget, final election day breakdown of 54 major constituency of the New Deal minority aid programs, affirmative percent for Bush to 46 percent for Coalition on well-known social wel- action, and the crime issue were sim- Dukakis thus represents a net shift of fare, foreign policy, civil rights, and ply too liberal for these two groups. only two percentage points. cultural issues drawn from the 1988 Overall, the policy disagreements It can be argued that the Demo- National Election Study (Erikson et between Bush and Dukakis appear to cratic Convention helped sow the al. 1988: Appendix).5 In the final have produced a moderate polariza- seeds for Dukakis's defeat because it column, I also present the inter- tion of the New Deal Coalition along resurrected negative racial, ethnic, correlations between each policy issue conservative-liberal lines that worked and cultural stereotypes for the two and the Bush vote.6 While the tabu- to the advantage of the Republican groups, white ethnics and white lated data permit only a partial test candidate. Southerners, whom the Dukakis- of policy polarization, they demon- In the voting literature, policy dis- Bentsen team was supposedly de- strate sharp issue differences among putes are generally viewed as "hard" signed, at least in theory, to attract. the constituent groups. In general, political issues (Carmines and Stimp- Stereotypic cues that may have white southerners, white ethnics, and son 1980). From a cultural perspec- negatively influenced these two even labor union members, many of tive, they are primarily concerned not groups include: whom claim ethnic origins, tend to with how Americans feel toward the favor that are moderate to of policies objects (i.e., beneficiaries) gov- *The and often conservative in while lib- ernment action so-called crude, boastful, orientation; (the "easy" behavior of the Texas erals and blacks tend to hold much but how feel toward vulgar issues) they the Democratic "Bush more liberal The less understood instru- Bashers," positions.7 greatest completely whose and demeanor not are over ments for language disparities, surprisingly, (i.e., programs) carrying was offensive not to a civil them out. this useful only large compensatory rights policies, Unfortunately, number of southern Bible Belt especially the racially explosive issue distinction has been lost largely by Christians but also to south- of affirmative action. the but more many equivalent antiseptic erners who have taken The Dukakis and distinction be- historically challenge facing social-psychological pride in their dis- the Democrats in 1988 was to woo tween and soft-spoken "symbolic" "cognitive" course and manners back into the fold two issues and Feldman gracious presidential (Conover 1981). (Reed The brash irrev- from the New 1974).9 key defecting groups erance of the "Bush Bashers" Deal Coalition-white southerners (3) That the 1988 Democratic Con- may have also offended many white ethnics with strong religious TABLE 1. ties to the Catholic and Orthodox Liberal-ConservativeScores on Issue Domains, by New Deal Group faiths. * The attention lavished on Jesse New Deal Group Jackson, a controversial civil White White rights leader, by liberal Democrats IssueDomain Southerners Ethnics Labor Liberals Blacks Bush(r) and the media during the first SocialWelfare three days of the convention. As a DomesticSpending .02 -.07 -.09 -.23 -.32 .36 champion of the black race and Standardof Living .26 .16 .06 -.03 -.28 .34 an exponent of racial confronta- ForeignPolicy tion, Jackson infuriates many DefenseSpending .11 .03 -.04 -.24 -.15 .34 white southerners and northern SovietUnion .06 -.06 -.08 -.27 -.06 .15 white ethnics. He also epitomizes Civil Rights what they detest: a "pushy" black Aid to Minorities .31 .21 .16 -.10 -.35 .30 who enjoys status and AffirmativeAction .66 .73 .69 .47 -.30 .23 respect. This hostility can be seen, for Cultural example, in the low thermometer -.26 -.23 -.40 .12 LegalAbortion -.10 -.10 he received from these HomosexualRights .13 -.10 -.10 -.33 -.26 .18 ratings two Women'sRole -.42 -.51 -.52 -.65 -.47 .09 groups in the 1988 National Elec- SchoolPrayer .03 -.14 -.13 -.27 -.00 .06 tion Study, the lowest received by BushPercentage 60.6 53.0 40.7 17.1 8.0 any Democratic candidate for President. By comparison, Bush

182 PS: Political Science & Politics received ratings that rivaled his TABLE 2. popular predecessor (see Table 2). Candidate Thermometer Ratings, by New Deal Group * The inadvertent communication of discordant and disturbing cultural New Deal Group images, such as Garrison Keillor's Thermometer White White apology to school children for the Ratings Southerners Ethnics Labor Liberals Blacks in the Star Banner. lyrics Spangled Reagan 69 63 56 45 37 Keillor said they really weren't Bush 66 62 57 46 46 "militaristic," a word that seems Dukakis 54 55 60 67 69 alien to the pro-defense attitudes Jackson 42 42 51 60 80 of most white southerners (Joslyn 1980). And what were convention viewers to make of the police and medical convoys that escorted the candidates to the convention hall that protected Bush and the Repub- those with significant negative corre- through Atlanta's dark and licans from charges of racism and lations are designated as "negative" deserted streets? Did many sub- demagoguery. These included pinning reference groups.12 well liminally ask themselves how safe, the "liberal" tail on the Democratic Nationally, as as regionally, it secure, and civilized America donkey; making Willie Horton a is possible to see the potency of the would be under the Democrats? household word; portraying Dukakis conservative and liberal labels in the as the "greasy Greek" who let Hor- 1988 presidential election. As noted ton and Bush as the above, Bush worked to Finally, the musical celebration go; depicting assiduously defender and of the liberal label on and of Neil Diamond's "Coming to champion God, pin Dukakis, and the Amer- based on the tabulated the America," a paean to Ellis Island country, motherhood, results, ican of life. 10Bush's to have worked. and the immigrant ethos, was cer- way strong strategy appears stands on the of Another that bore fruit for tainly a source of pride and recogni- pledge allegiance, strategy the traditional the candidate was his tion for many white ethnics. How- abortion, ACLU, Republican and his vote ever, it may also have raised negative values, pragmatic anti-commu- "negative" campaign. Thus, nism as seems to have been more cultural stereotypes for many white (peace through strength), shaped by southerners and urban ethnics who well as campaign pictures of him voter attitudes toward "negative" decked out in an Air Force than toward reference have become increasingly concerned flight "positive" also undermine and These reference about the rising numbers of non- jacket, helped groups. negative white aliens that have entered the discredit the so-called "wimp" issue. groups include welfare recipients, But how effective were the cultural and United States both legally and illegal aliens, gays lesbians, of the Bush Per- labor and illegally. appeals campaign? blacks, feminists, unions, haps the most reliable source of data civil rights leaders. All, of course, (4) That the Bush campaign was for assessing this issue is the 1988 can be lumped under the liberal brilliantly conceived and superbly American National Election Study. label. executed to exploit the racial-ethnic, Unfortunately, the NES surveys, as The results of Table 3 also demon- religious, and cultural divisions in currently structured, do not provide strate a central thesis of subcultural American society. much useful information on the theories (Elazar 1984), namely, that The strategy employed three classic influence of religious beliefs (Leege cultural conflicts are regionally spe- cultural appeals: (a) reference group et al. 1989). They do, however, pro- cific. Thus, for Bush voters in the identifications, (b) religious beliefs, vide a great deal of information on Pacific states, big business represents and (c) cultural dominance. These the effects of reference group feelings an important reference group; while appeals were designed to remind and some suggestive data on the civil rights leaders and gays and les- "mainline" northern whites, evan- political struggle in American politics bians constitute critical negative ref- gelical southern whites, northern for cultural dominance. erence groups. Similarly, feminists white ethnics, and conservatives that To estimate the influence of ref- represent a critical negative reference Republicans are the party of white erence group feelings, I correlated group in the Rocky Mountain states, dominance, religious morality, cul- the feeling thermometer ratings of which encompass the traditional- tural orthodoxy, and social order. selected groups in the 1988 NES with family-oriented Mormon cultural This strategy was made possible by the Bush vote. Table 3 presents the region. 13 As expected, blacks and proclaiming the successes of the intercorrelations for the entire na- civil rights leaders (like Jesse Jack- Reagan-Bush economic recovery (the tion as well as eight regional sub- son) are the political pariahs of Bush 25 percent tax cut, the 50 percent samples. " The reference groups are supporters in the Border and Deep reduction in inflation, the cutting of ranked in descending order of their South. In the Great Lakes states, the interest rates from 21 to 10 percent, national intercorrelations with the so-called foundry of the nation, and the creation of 17 million new Bush vote. Those groups with signifi- labor unions constitute the most jobs) and the defense buildup, there- cant positive correlations are classi- important negative reference group by neutralizing if not appropriating fied as "positive" reference groups, among Bush supporters. In the Mid- the prosperity and peace issues. those with very low positive to very Atlantic states, civil rights leaders The cultural appeals employed low negative correlations are denoted and Hispanics are viewed as the two subtle codewords and visual images as "neutral" reference groups, and most important cultural adversaries;

June 1991 183 Features

TABLE 3. Intercorrelations of 1988 Bush Vote and Reference Group Thermometer Ratings, by State Grouping

State Grouping Border Reference Groups U.S. New England Mid-Atlantic Great Lakes South Deep South Great Plains Rocky Mountain Pacific Positive Conservatives .39* .41* .47* .29* .41* .39* .30* .27* .46* Big Business .19* -.04 .33* .08 .09 .11 .26* .15 .35* Federal Government .17* .13 .17* .14* .07 .21* .15 .22 .26* Military .14* .05 .05 .06 .06 .04 .14 -.11 .25* Antiabortionists .11* -.06 .06 .17* .05 .05 .20* .34* .17* Neutral Supreme Court .07* .02 .20* .00 -.04 -.10 .15 .18 .22* Fundamentalists .07* -.06 -.02 .02 .06 .10 .05 .14 .19* Political Evangelicals .06* -.19 .02 .07 -.01 -.01 .14 .37* .18* Whites .04 .08 .17* .00 -.05 .01 .03 -.33* .15* Jews -.03 -.10 .01 -.04 .02 -.16* .06 -.09 .03 Catholics -.04 -.10 .00 -.22* -.02 -.10 .08 -.20 .13* Women -.06* -.07 .08 -.16* -.199 -.04 -.10 .02 .02 Congress -.07* -.15 .10 -.16* -.03 -.05 -.11 -.07 -.10 Elderly -.10* .04 .04 -.16* -.09 -.19* .10 -.31* -.14* Negative Environmentalists -.14* -.22* .04 -.14* -.16* -.21* -.03 -.22 -.24* Palestinians -.14* -.33* -.10 -.09 -.24* -.17* -.10 .20 -.19* Hispanics -.16* -.30* -.43* -.09 -.23* -.28* -.01 -.21 -.15' Poor -.18* -.21* -.17* -.22* -.16* -.28* -.08 -.20 -.09 Welfare -.19* -.37* -.28* -.9 - .11 -.16* .02 -.16 -.24* Illegal Aliens -.19* -.34* -.36* -.12* -.13 -.24* -.10 -.05 -.19* Gays and Lesbians -.22* -.16 -.31* -.17* -.14 -.26* -.21* -.07 -.34* Blacks -.24* -.24* -.26* -.23* -.35* -.39* -.04 -.04 -.16* Feminists -.30* -.18 -.36* -.31* -.29* -.34* -.28* -.41* -.23* Labor Unions -.33* -.28* -.28* -.40* -.31* -.37* -.35* -.26 -.27* Civil Rights Leaders -.37* -.41* -.40* -.30* -.37* -.54* -.23* -.24 -.32* Liberals -.39* -.38* -.14* -.34* -.48* -.35* -.42* -.32* -.40*

*p < .05 while in New England they are wel- this thesis is true, then there should divisions based on race-ethnicity, fare recipients, and once again, civil be a strong correlation between a religion, and regional culture. rights leaders. ranking of the culturally dominant Support for this contention is Finally, it is clear from a compari- and subordinate groups in American readily available in the form of son of the correlation coefficients in society, on the one hand, and the national exit poll results and state-by- Tables 1 and 3 that if political ref- presidential vote on the other. state aggregate election returns. For erence groups are interpreted as the Table 4 presents the results of instance, exit poll results from the cultural "objects" of public policy, crosstabulating the 1988 Bush vote New York Times/CBS News Poll then at the national level cultural with one hypothesized cultural peck- (1988: 17) show that: (symbolic) issues were at least as ing order. In this scheme, all respon- * important as the so-called rational dents were classified into six major 59 percent of whites voted for (cognitive) issues in structuring the cultural groups on the basis of their Bush while 86 percent of blacks presidential vote. At the disaggre- responses to the ethnic ancestry ques- voted for Dukakis; * gated regional level, of course, cul- tion. In the presumed order of their 81 percent of white fundamental- tural reference group theory appears cultural dominance, the six groups ist or evangelical Christians, 66 to provide a superior predictive include mainline, American, ethnic, percent of Protestants, and 52 of model to rational voting theory. Asian, New World, and African. 14 percent Catholics went for To estimate the impact of the cul- As predicted by dominance theory, Bush; while 64 percent of Jews tural dominance issue in the 1988 the results show that for went for Dukakis; and support * campaign, it is necessary to make the Bush was strong among currently 67 percent of whites in the following assumptions. According to ascendant groups in the cultural spec- South, the most Democratic cultural theory, racial origin and eth- trum, i.e., mainline, American, eth- region of the country, voted for nic ancestry are the fountainheads of nic, and Asian voters, but that it Bush. subcultural differences. Given this tapered off sharply among New premise, it follows that in culturally World and African voters. By comparison, class divisions are pluralistic societies, electoral politics (5) That the dominant cleavages in not nearly as pronounced. Thus, is, among other things, the struggle the 1988 presidential election were there is not much difference in the for racial and ethnic dominance. If not socioeconomic, but cultural; i.e., levels of reported support for Bush

184 PS: Political Science & Politics Why the Democrats Lost-Again! among lower-middle ($12,500- church membership, family income, Lakes, Border South, Deep South, $24,999), middle ($25,000-$34,999) and Republican party identification. and Pacific (largely limited to Cali- and upper-middle ($35,000-$49,999) From a cultural perspective, the fornia) regions. Ethnic cleavages, in income families. The 20 percent of party identification variable may be turn, are most pronounced in the all voters who fell into the lower- construed as a supra-cultural variable New England region, but largely dis- middle group divided about evenly that reflects individual differences in appear elsewhere except in the racial- between Bush and Dukakis while the racial-ethnic background, religious ly divided Border South where a sig- 40 percent of all voters who fell into affiliation, social structure, and nificant number of ethnic whites the middle and upper-middle groups regional subculture. And since it is so apparently joined forces with main- provided only a six percent margin close to the actual vote decision, it line groups. Religious divisions, by for Bush. The only income groups appears to represent an overall pro- comparison, are most pronounced in exhibiting clear partisan preferences pensity to vote for the endorsed can- the Great Plains and Rocky Moun- are the poor (under $12,000) and the didate of one party over the other. tain regions. Finally, the results of rich (over $50,000). Both divide in a Therefore, if we set aside (ignore) Table 5 suggest that race and social 62 to 37 percent ratio, with the poor, the results for party identification, class are, to some extent, coalescing of course, tilting to Dukakis and the the tabulated data clearly show that cleavages in American politics. And rich to Bush. the 1988 presidential vote was struc- this may help account for some of Aggregate state results, in turn, tured more in each region (and the apparent differences in scholarly suggest that Bush enjoyed a solid, nationally) by cultural (i.e., racial, explanations of modern presidential almost impregnable base of electoral ethnic, or religious) than socio- elections (Carmines and Stimson support in the South, the Great economic (i.e., family income) dif- 1989; Erikson 1988). Plains, and the Rocky Mountains. ferences. In addition, it is clear that I rest my case. Collectively these states provide 204 the distribution of the vote depends of the 270 electoral votes needed to on the cultural mix in each region. win the presidency, a virtual "lock" Thus, race becomes an important Conclusion by most standards. In addition, he cleavage in the vote wherever blacks won support from states that were are found in significant numbers, In this article, I have offered a populated, in varying degrees, by namely the Mid-Atlantic, Great serious and systematic explanation southern settlers. These include the border states of Kentucky, Missouri, TABLE 4. and Oklahoma with 28 electoral Breakdown of the 1988 Presidential NVote, by Racial and Ethnic Ancestry votes plus the lower Midwestern states of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois Racialand EthnicAncestry with an additional 59 electoral votes. Vote Mainline American Ethnic Asian New World African By comparison, the only states that Dukakis carried are "northern" % % o% % %o % states which: Bush 62.7 59.3 53.0 54.5 31.0 6.1 Dukakis 36.0 40.3 45.5 45.5 69.0 90.8 * have predominantly nonwhite Other 1.2 0.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 populations (Hawaii and the Dis- trict of Columbia); * are strongly Democratic at the TABLE 5. state level (Rhode Island, Massa- Intercorrelations of 1988 Bush Vote with Selected Variables, chusetts, New York, and West by Nation and State Cultural Groupings Virginia); or * are known for their predominantly SelectedVariables white and culturally homogeneous Aggregation Level N Whitea Ethicb Protestantc Incomed Repub.e populations, "moralistic" sub- UnitedStates 1209 .32* .01 .13* .19* .56* cultures, and "progressive" poli- StateGrouping tics (Minnesota, Wisconsin, New England 70 .09 -.27 .19 -.03 .60* Oregon, Washington, and Iowa). Mid-Atlantic 179 .28* .04 .11 .23* .45* GreatLakes 238 .37* -.04 .12* .28* .59* BorderSouth 141 .44* .18* -.05 .28* .55* Perhaps a more definitive test of Deep South 204 .42* .06 .14* .19* .52* this contention, is GreatPlains 112 .14 -.01 .27* .07 .57* however, provided Mountain 47 .17 -.10 .33* .17 .64* by individual level data drawn from Pacific 218 .26* -.00 .20* .14* .62* the 1988 NES study. Table 5 presents the results of correlating the 1988 *p < .05 Bush vote with five selected variables aCodedas 1 for whiterespondents and 0 for nonwhiterespondents. for the entire national sample and bCodedas I for all respondentswho reporteda "whiteethnic" ancestry and 0 for everyoneelse. eight regional subsamples. The vari- CCodedas 1 for all respondentswho said they wereProtestant and 0 for everyoneelse. ables include measures of racial dMeasuredby a respondent'sestimated family income. origin, ethnic ancestry, Protestant 'Codedas 1 for all Republicanidentifiers and 0 for everyoneelse.

June 1991 185 Features

for the Bush win in 1988. In particu- reportedBritish, German, and Scandinavian municatednot only in paid televisionand I have that there is an ancestriesas well as those who indicated radio ads but also in specialelection bro- lar, argued churescirculated to millionsof voters and to Anglo-Canadian,Netherlander, Hollander, by underlying logic dynamic Dutch, Australian,New Zealander,Tas- state Republicanparty organizations. An modern presidential elections which manian,Protestant, and Mormonancestries. Ohio editionjuxtaposed on its front covera is primarily, but not exclusively, cul- "Whiteethnics" include all respondentswho smiling,all-American pose of Bush in a con- tural. Thus, Republican candidates reportedIrish, EasternEurope, Mediter- servativedark blue suit with a supercilious have won more often in recent elec- ranean,and Balkanancestries as well as those snapshotof Dukakisin a garishpinstripe who indicatedFrench-Canadian, Austrian, suit. Smallerprints of these pictureswere tions because they are more success- Belgian,French, Luxembourg, Swiss, West- laced throughoutthe brochureto provide ful in appealing to the cultural pref- ern European,European, white, Caucasian, visualreminders of the candidateswhen erences and prejudices of American Catholic,and Jewishancestries. "African- votersread their respectiveissue positions. Americans"include all who voters. According to this perspective, respondents Insidethe cover, readerswere introducedto a reportedblack, Negro, Americanblack, and mug shot of a sullen-lookingHorton, in- the broadcast and printed media Afro-Americanancestries as well as those formedof his convictionand sentenceto life should be viewed not as the king- who said their forebearswere from any Afri- in prison "WITHOUTPAROLE" for first makers, but as the handmaidens of can countryexcept Egypt and South Africa. degreemurder in the stabbingof a 17-year- American this "New World"respondents include all those old boy duringa robbery,alerted to politics. Finally, logic who not the out- reportedAmerican Indian, Mexican, Dukakis'srole in parolinghim underMassa- may help explain only Mexican-American,Central-American, West chusetts's"recreational weekend furlough" comes of presidential general elec- Indian, SouthAmerican, Chicano, and His- program,and then provideda blow-by-blow tions but also the outcomes of presi- panic ancestriesas well as those who indi- descriptionof his brutalizationof a young dential primaries. Perhaps the most cated tribalaffiliations. Finally, "American" Marylandcouple that culminatedin the in the 1988 respondentsinclude all respondentswho repeatedrape of the young man's fianceeat interesting development refusedto an ethnic other knife On the next was the extent to which the report ancestry point. page readersare campaign than American. informedof the unsavoryrecords of Massa- major contenders in each party were 4. Social welfareissues appearto have chusetts'prisoners released under the fur- dependent on culturally and region- declinedbecause of the institutionalizationof lough programand then asked to compare ally distinctive coalitions of political the social welfarestate. In modernpresiden- the positionsof the two candidateson the 15 tial electionsthis fact is reflectedin the death penaltyand mandatorysentencing as supporters. decliningimportance of social class as a well as the politicalendorsements they My final contention is simple and voting cleavage.Foreign policy issues, of received(police patrolmenassociations for direct. If this interpretation of the course, are generallyesoteric (with the Bush, the ACLU for Dukakis).On subse- 1988 presidential campaign and elec- notableexception of defensespending and quent pages, readersare informedabout tion is then it follows that divisiveconflicts such as the VietnamWar) Massachusetts'shigh levels of taxationand correct, and thereforedo not future Democratic candi- generatestrong policy spendingunder Dukakis, the state's present presidential preferencesamong most voters. budgetdifficulties, Dukakis's positions on a dates who ignore the cultural realities 5. The liberal-conservativescores were numberof defenseissues that would allegedly of American politics do so at their estimatedby computingthe group averages insure"a weakerAmerica" (next to a picture electoral peril. of standardizedscores. These standardized of a tall, dominantBush looking down and scoresvary between - 1 (an extremelyliberal shakinghands with a diminutive,docile Gor- response)and + 1 (an extremelyconservative bachev),and the standsof the two candidates response).They were obtainedby subtracting on education,the environment,and family the midpointscore from the actualvalue and values. Finally, on the back cover, readers Notes then dividingby one-half of the range. are treatedto a firm-and-resolute,full-page 6. The "Bush vote" was measuredby a pose of Bush in a macho Air Force flight 1. Bob Erikson(1989: 30), for instance, dichotomousvariable that took on the values jacket. has mischievouslyargued that "it must be in of 1 (voted for Bush) and 0 (did not vote for 11. The New Englandregion includes the the Democrats'electoral interest to lose presi- Bush)based on responsesto the question: states of Connecticut,Maine, Massachusetts, dentialelections." In his first retrospective "Who did you vote for?" New Hampshire,Rhode Island, and Ver- assessment,Lee Sigelman(1989: 38) wag- 7. On threeof the four "cultural"issues mont; the Mid-Atlanticregion includes the gishly attributesthe outcomeof the presiden- in Table 1, blacksare virtuallyindistinguish- states of Delaware,New Jersey,New York, tial primariesto momentumand "the con- able from white southernersand white eth- Pennsylvania,and Marylandplus the District stantlyshifting and largelyunforeseeable for- nics. The uniformlyliberal positions of all of Columbia;the GreatLakes region includes tunes of the campaign";in his second, he New Deal groupson the role of womenare the states of Illinois, Indiana,Michigan, (Sigelman1990) sardonically concludes that hardlysurprising, given the loaded question Ohio, and Wisconsin;the BorderSouth "Democratsare too stupidto calculatetheir wordingof this item in the 1988National regionincludes the states of Kentucky, self-interest"and Democraticpresidential ElectionStudy. Missouri,North Carolina,Oklahoma, Ten- candidatesare too ugly to win. 8. Polls suggestDukakis' lead temporarily nessee, Virginia,and West Virginia;the Deep 2. Perhapsone unobtrusivemeasure of increasedto 17 percentin the brief afterglow South regionincludes the states of Alabama, this trendis the largenumber of parentsin of the convention.But this lead seemsto have Arkansas,Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, the 1980s(Williams 1990: 17) who chose been ephemeraland quicklyevaporated. Mississippi,South Carolina,and Texas;the names for theirchildren "that reflectedtheir 9. ThoughTexas was a part of the Old GreatPlains regionincludes the states of heritage,ethnic origin and economicstatus." Confederacy,its politicalculture is quite dif- Iowa, Kansas,Minnesota, Nebraska, North 3. Basedon the 1988National Election ferent.As Neal Peirce and JerryHagstrom Dakota, and South Dakota;the Mountain Study, about 71 percentof all self-identified (1984:618) observe,Texas has alwaysbeen regionincludes the states of Arizona, Colo- "mainline"respondents reported voting as consideredthe big, brawlingbraggart in the rado, Idaho, Montana,Nevada, New Mexico, opposedto 64 percentof all self-identified familyof Americanstates, one which Utah, and Wyoming;and the Pacific region "whiteethnic" respondents,55 percentof all "inspireslove and hate." In his insightful includesthe states of Alaska, California, self-identified"Asian-American" respon- delineationof culturalregions in the U.S., Hawaii, Oregon,and Washington. dents, 46 percentof all self-identified"New Gastil(1975) divides the South into four dif- 12. This classificationscheme assumes that World" respondents,52 percentof all self- ferentsubregions: the LowlandSouth, the what mattersis not the averagemagnitude of identified"African-American" respondents, UplandSouth, the MountainSouth, and a group'sthermometer rating (which only and 49 percentof all self-identified"Ameri- finally, the WesternSouth, whichincludes establishesa benchmarkscore) but the extent can" respondents.For definitionalpurposes, primarilyTexas and Oklahoma. to which attitudestoward a group providea "mainline"respondents include those who 10. These messagesand imageswere com- basis for partisandifferentiation.

186 PS: Political Science & Politics Why the Democrats Lost-Again!

13. Across from Temple Square in the man. 1981. "The Origins and Meaning of at the annual meeting of the American heart of Salt Lake City, the Mormons have Liberal/Conservative Self-Identifica- Political Science Association, Atlanta. erected a bronze statuary of a Mormon tions." American Journal of Political Miller, Arthur H., Martin P. Wattenberg, father, mother, and son. The son is eagerly Science 25: 617-45. and Oksana Malanchuk. 1986. "Sche- running from the loving arms of his kneeling Elazar, Daniel J. 1970. Cities of the Prairie. matic Assessments of Presidential Candi- mother to the expectant arms of his standing New York: Basic. dates." American Political Science Review father. On the base of the pedestal is an . 1984. American Federalism, 3rd edi- 80: 521-40. inscription that reads: "The nation is only tion. New York: Harper and Row. New York Times/CBS News Poll. 1988. as strong as the family." Erikson, Robert. 1989. "Why the Democrats "Portrait of the Electorate." New York 14. The nationalities that comprise each Lose Presidential Elections: Toward a Times (November 10): 18. group are identified in note 3. A seventh Theory of Optimal Loss (with Apologies Opinion Roundup. 1988. "George Bush and group, "Middle-Eastern," was found to to A. Wuffle)." PS: Political Science & Michael Dukakis: How They Stand in include no respondents of middle-eastern Politics 22 (March): 30-5. National and Regional Polls." Public ancestry who voted. . 1988. "Economic Conditions and the Opinion (Sept./Oct.): 36-7. 15. In the Democratic primaries, for in- Presidential Vote." American Political Orren, Gary R. and Nelson W. Polsby. 1987. stance, Jesse Jackson was the overwhelming Science Review 83: 567-73. Media and Momentum. Chatham, NJ: favorite among black voters and generally did , Norman Luttbeg, and Kent Tedin. Chatham House. best in states with large black populations. 1988. American Public Opinion, 3rd edi- Peirce, Neal R. and Jerry Hagstrom. 1984. Michael Dukakis was the preferred choice tion. New York: Macmillan. The Book of America: Inside Fifty States among urban, liberal, and Jewish voters and Garreau, Joel. 1981. The Nine Nations of Today. New York: Warner. was usually the vote leader in states with sig- North America. Boston: Houghton Reed, John Shelton. 1974. "Summertime and Mifflin. nificant concentrations of these groups. Final- the Livin' Is Easy: The Quality of Life in D. 1975. ly, Missouri's Richard Gephardt and Ten- Gastil, Raymond Cultural Regions the South," University of North Carolina nessee's Albert Gore were largely regional, of the United States. Seattle: University of Newsletter. Chapel Hill, NC: Institute for "favorite-son" candidates and did best in Washington Press. Research in Social Science. those states that were in close proximity to Glenmary Research Center. 1982. Church Robbins, Jonathan. 1989. "Geodemograph- their home states. In the Republican pri- and Church Membership in the United ics: The New Magic." In Larry Sabato, maries, Pat Robertson had a very narrow States, 1980. Atlanta, GA. ed., Campaigns and Elections. Glenview, base among evangelical Christians and did Joslyn, Richard A. 1980. "Manifestations of IL: Scott, Foresman. well in those states where their intensity of Elazar's Political Subcultures: State Pub- Schneider, William. 1989. "An Insider's support (the Iowa caucuses) or concentration lic Opinion and the Content of Political View of the Election." The Atlantic 262 was evident. Kansas's Bob Dole, a favorite Campaign Advertising." Publius 10: (July): 29-57. son of the agrarian heartland, did well in the 37-58. Sigelman, Lee. 1989. "The 1988 Presidential neighboring midwestern farm state of Iowa, . 1984. Mass Media and Elections. Nominations: Whatever Happened to but could not do much elsewhere. Bush, by New York: Random House. Momentum." PS: Political Science & comparison, seemed to attract broad-based Kelley, Robert. 1979. The Cultural Pattern Politics 22 (March): 35-9. support from traditional Republican groups, in American Politics. New York: Knopf. . 1990. "Toward a Stupidity-Ugliness such as white mainline Protestants in the Kleppner, Paul. 1970. The Cross of Culture: Theory of Democratic Electoral Deba- North, and white Protestants of British A Social Analysis of Midwestern Politics, cles." PS: Political Science & Politics 23 ancestry who have been defecting from the 1850-1900. New York: Free Press. (March): 18-20. Democratic Party in the South. Leege, David C., Joel A. Lieske, and Ken- Wald, Kenneth D. 1987. Religion and Politics neth D. Wald. 1990. "Toward Cultural in the United States. New York: St. Mar- Theories of American Political Behavior." tin's Press. In William Crotty, ed., Political Science: Weiss, Michael J. 1988. The Clustering of References Looking to the Future. Chicago: North- America. New York: Harper and Row. western University Press. Williams, Lena. 1990. "Ambition and Pride Burns, James MacGregor, J. W. Peltason, Lieske, Joel. 1988a. "The Cultural Origins in Names of the 80s." New York Times and Thomas E. Cronin. 1989. Govern- of Political Partisanship." Paper delivered (January 10): 17. ment by the People, 13th alternate edi- at the annual meeting of the Western tion. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. Political Science Association, San Carmines, Edward G. and James A. Stimson. Francisco. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the . 1988b. "The Cultural Nexus in U.S. About the Author Transformation of American Politics. Presidential Elections." Paper delivered at Princeton: Princeton Press. the annual meeting of the American Polit- University Joel Lieske is associate of . 1980. "The Two Faces of Issue ical Science Association, Washington, professor political science at Cleveland State University. Voting." American Political Science DC. Review 74: 78-91. . 1989. "Subcultural Differences in the Conover, Pamela Johnston and Stanley Feld- U.S. Presidential Vote." Paper delivered

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