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Military Planning Process

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Military Planning Process Module 3: Operational Framework L e s s o n 1 Military Planning Process • All military staff officers in the FHQ of a UN mission need to understand the UN Military Planning Process for peacekeeping operations in Why is this order to fully participate in the process important for me? • Successful military operations rely on commanders and staff understanding and employing a common and comprehensive planning and decision-making process • Identify the phases of the Military Planning Process • Explain the basic methods to analyze the Operational Environment (OE) Learning Outcomes • Undertake the Analysis of the OE • Develop Courses Of Action (COA) • Evaluate different COAs Overview of the Military Planning Process Analysis of the Operational Environment Lesson Content Mission Analysis Course of Action Development A methodical process that relies on joint Definition efforts of commanders of the and staff to seek Military optimal solutions and to Planning make decisions to achieve an objective in Process a dynamic environment • Comprehensive • Efficient • Inclusive Principles of • Informative Planning • Integrated (with long term goals) • Logical • Transparent Themes of Planning • Identify problems and objectives • Gather information • Generate options to achieve those goals • Decide on the way ahead and then execute it – Who, What, Where, When, How, Why? Likely • Inefficient use of resources Consequences of • Potential loss of life Hasty or Incomplete • Ultimately mission failure Planning Successful military operations rely on commanders and staff understanding and employing a common and comprehensive process 1. Analysis of the Operational Environment. Phases of 2. Mission Analysis. Military Planning 3. Course of Action Development. Process in UN 4. Course of Action Analysis and Peacekeeping Decision. 5. Production of Operations Orders. Phase 1 – Analysis of the Operational Environment Phase 2- Mission Analysis Phases of Phase 3 – Course of Action MPP Development Phase 4 – Course of Action Analysis and Decision Phase 5 – Production of Operations Order Guidance Circular Process Mission Analysis Phase 2 Analysis of the Operational Production of OPORD Environment COA Phase 5 (AOE) Development Phase 1 Phase 3 COA Analysis & Decision Phase 4 Sequential Process Cdr Initial WARNO 1 guidance Phase 2 MISSION ANALYSIS Mission Analysis Brief WARNO 2 S Phase 3 E F T A F A M I COA DEVELOPMENT T T S AOE Phase 1 Phase COA Brief ES Phase 4 COA ANALYSIS AND SELECTION Decision Brief WARNO 3 for Cdr Phase 5 PRODUCTION OF OPORD • Follow the process sequentially • Consider the full scope of Requirements determining factors for Military Planners and • Understand the risks associated Decision- with the assumptions makers • Refrain from shaping their analysis to suit a predetermined course of action One-third/Two-thirds Rule: Time A general rule of thumb is to Allocation allocate a minimum of two-thirds of the time available for planning and preparation to sub-units • Make collection plan Information Requirements • Use risk-managed assumptions • Analyze commander intent carefully Interactions • Ask for commander guidance at with regular intervals Commanders • Brief commanders in each phase Summary of Key Messages • The Military Planning Process relies on joint efforts of commanders and staff to seek optimal solutions in a dynamic environment. • The Principles of Planning call for the MPP to be comprehensive; efficient; inclusive; informative; integrated; logical; and transparent. • The five phases of MPP include: Analysis of the OE; Mission Analysis; COA Development; COA Analysis and Decision; and Production of OPORDs. Overview of the Military Planning Process Analysis of the Operational Environment Lesson Content Mission Analysis Course of Action Development Phase 1 – Analysis of the Operational Environment Phase 2- Mission Analysis Phases of Phase 3 – Course of Action MPP Development Phase 4 – Course of Action Analysis and Decision Phase 5 – Production of Operations Order Analysis of the Operational Environment (AOE) helps the command Analysis of and staff elements to the refine their situational Operational awareness and Environment understanding in order to have better visualization of the operational environment. AOE Steps C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA • Review the existing situation • Scope the likely threats Describe • Identify significant characteristics of the Operational environment Environment • Determine AO limitations • Identify intelligence gaps • Determine key information requirements C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA • Effects on friendly forces Describe • Effects on adversary forces Operational Effects (the • Effects in different areas ‘so what’) • Effects on different types of operations C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA Military • Focus on armed threats to the PKO that might affect the safety Threat and security of own forces, Assessment designated persons and and designated infrastructure Adversary • Focus on physical threats to Courses of civilians Action C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA • Identify Threats Risk • Assess Threats Management • Develop Control Measures Process • Disseminate Control Measures • Monitor • Evaluate C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA Threats Threat: Any factors (actions, circumstances, hazards or events) which have the potential or possibility to cause harm, loss or damage to the operations. Threat = Capability x Intent C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA Threat Assessment Military Threat Internal Actors Assessment External Key Actors Leaders C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA • Political agenda • Leadership Threat • Force size Evaluation • Force structure and disposition • Logistics and sustainability • Capability and known tactics C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA Risks Risk: The combination of the impact and likelihood for harm, loss or damage to the Operation from the exposure to threats. Risk = Likelihood x Impact Risks are categorized in levels from Low to High for their prioritization. Risk Assessment Matrix Catastrophic Low MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH VERY HIGH Severe Low MEDIUM HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH Moderate Very Low Low MEDIUM HIGH HIGH IMPACT Minor Very Low Low Low MEDIUM MEDIUM Negligible Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Moderately Very Likely/ Very Unlikely Unlikely Likely Likely Imminent LIKELIHOOD C. Threat A. Define B. Describe Analysis and Operational Operational Adversary Environment Effects CoA • View the operation from the perspective of the adversaries Determination of Adversary • Analyze the threats and risks of COAs each COA to the peacekeeping force • Assess Conflict Parties Most Dangerous and Most Likely COAs in detail Differences in Military Threat Assessment Adversaries • Easily identifiable by military uniforms, • Irregular forces equipment and tactics • Complex relationships • Clear command and control lines • Unstable • With the makings of traditional military force War-like operations Peacekeeping operation Learning Activity #1 Ask participants to determine the Most Likely and Most Dangerous COAs for MPC and ICSC in Carana scenario. Learning Activity #2 Have a discussion about the questions staff and commanders need to ask when analyzing threats and risks to civilians. For example: • Who are at risk, where are they, and where are they moving? • What are their vulnerabilities? • What are the particular threats and risks facing civilians? • What types of (armed) actors are responsible for violence against civilians? • What are their motivations to attack civilians? • Which HR violations are being committed, and what strategies/tactics are used? Summary of Key Messages • The AOE consists of: defining the OE; describing the Operational Effects; Threat Analysis and Adversary COAs. • The military threat assessment focuses solely on armed threats to the PKO that might affect the safety and security of own forces, designated persons and designated infrastructure. • Threats are a product of both capability and intent. • Risk is characterized by both the probability and severity of a potential loss. Overview of the Military Planning Process Analysis of the Operational Environment Lesson Content Mission Analysis Course of Action Development Phase 1 – Analysis of the Operational Environment Phase 2- Mission Analysis Phases of Phase 3 – Course of Action MPP Development Phase 4 – Course of Action Analysis and Decision Phase 5 – Production of Operations Order Mission Analysis Mission Analysis is the principal decision making tool that guides the planning process. It takes the higher-level guidance provided to the planners, challenges it against the facts and assumptions, and then refines it to better detail the mission and the planning requirements. Mission Analysis Identify and Identify and Analyse Higher Draft Identify and Analyse Analyse Draft the Command Commander’s Analyse Constraints Critical Facts Mission Intent Intent Tasks and and Statement
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