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Understanding CONFLICT RESOLUTION Understanding CONFLICT RESOLUTION War, Peace and the Global System Peter Wallensteen SAGE Publications London • Thousand Oaks • New Delhi © Peter Wallensteen 2002 First published 2002 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form, or by any means, only with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction, in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. SAGE Publications Ltd 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A 4PU SAGE Publications Inc 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd 32, M-Block Market Greater Kailash – I New Delhi 110 048 British Library Cataloguing in Publication data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 0 7619 6666 8 ISBN 0 7619 6667 6 (pbk) Library of Congress catalog card number available Typeset by Photoprint, Torquay, Devon Printed in Great Britain by The Cromwell Press, Trowbridge, Wiltshire To LENA Contents List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Preface xv Part One The Problem and How to Approach It 1 Understanding Conflict Resolution 3 1.1 Peacemaking as a New Experience 3 1.2 Peace Research and Conflict Resolution 5 1.3 Defining Conflict Resolution 8 1.4 Limits of Conflict Resolution 10 1.5 Outlining this Book 12 2 Armed Conflicts and Peace Agreements 13 2.1 The Concept of Conflict 13 2.2 Identifying Armed Conflict 17 Three projects 17 The Michigan and Hamburg projects 20 2.3 Trends in Armed Conflicts 23 The Uppsala Conflict Data Project 23 Patterns of armed conflict 26 2.4 Outcomes of Armed Conflict 28 3 Approaching Conflict Resolution 33 3.1 The Evolution of Conflict Analysis 33 3.2 Focusing on Conflict Dynamics 34 3.3 Focusing on Basic Needs 39 3.4 Focusing on Rational Calculations 44 viii CONTENTS 3.5 Synthesizing Conflict Resolution 50 Refining the definition 50 Transcending incompatibility: seven mechanisms 53 3.6 Identifying Key Elements in Conflict Analysis 57 4 Analysing Conflict Resolution 61 4.1 Basic and Complex Levels of Analysis 61 4.2 The Role of the State 62 Actors in conflict 62 The special roles of the state 63 The global system 66 4.3 Introducing the Trichotomy of Conflict 70 Locating conflicts in the trichotomy 74 4.4 Applying the Trichotomy of Conflict and Peace 76 Armed conflict since the Cold War 76 Peace agreements since the Cold War 79 Part Two Basics of Conflict Resolution 5 The Resolution of Conflicts between States 87 5.1 Armed Conflict and Peace Accords between States 87 The last decades of the Cold War 87 The post-Cold War period 90 Geopolitik, Realpolitik, Idealpolitik and Kapitalpolitik 93 5.2 Conflict Resolution: Geopolitik and Realpolitik 96 Status quo or status quo ante bellum?97 Punitive or integrative solutions? 102 The seven mechanisms 107 5.3 Conflict Resolution: Idealpolitik and Kapitalpolitik 113 Idealpolitik and the settlement of conflicts 114 Peacemaking and Kapitalpolitik 119 The seven mechanisms 123 5.4 Conclusions for Interstate Conflict Resolution 127 6 Conflict Resolution in Civil Wars 131 6.1 Armed Conflicts and Peace Accords within States 131 Civil wars during and after the Cold War 131 Peace agreements in civil wars 134 6.2 Dealing with Incompatibilities over State Power 139 6.3 Democracy and the Settlement of Civil Wars 144 6.4 Dealing with the Internal Security Dilemma 148 6.5 State Failure and State Reconstruction 156 6.6 Civil Society in Internal Conflict Resolution 159 Contents ix 7 Conflict Resolution in State Formation Conflicts 163 7.1 State Formation Conflicts 163 State formation conflicts during the Cold War 164 State formation conflicts after the Cold War 168 Peace agreements in the post-Cold War era 171 7.2 Identity Discrimination and Conflict Resolution 175 7.3 Autonomy and Federalism: Territorial Solutions within a State 181 7.4 Independence with or without Integration 190 7.5 State Formation Conflicts and Democracy 196 Part Three Complexities in Conflict Resolution 8 Conflict Complexes and Conflict Resolution 203 8.1 Identifying Regional Conflict Complexes 203 Regional conflicts since the Cold War 204 Approaching regional conflicts 206 8.2 Regional Conflict and the Organizing of Regions 210 Regional frameworks 210 The limits of intra-regional frameworks 214 Extra-regional approaches to regional conflicts 215 Regional security after war 216 8.3 Major Powers and Conflict Complexes 218 Major powers in regional conflicts 218 Armed conflicts in major powers 221 Major powers and global conflict 222 8.4 Global Dimensions of Conflict Resolution 227 9 The United Nations in Conflict Resolution 231 9.1 The UN in Peace Agreements 231 9.2 Collective Security 233 The UN Charter 233 UN institutions 236 9.3 The Security Council in Conflict Resolution 239 Agenda setting 242 World regions 246 The permanent members 248 9.4 UN Action and Peace Agreements 252 Sanctions 252 Peacekeeping operations 255 Peace enforcement 258 x CONTENTS 10 International Communities in Conflict Resolution 263 10.1 The New Communities 263 UN-focused communities 264 Value- and power-focused communities 266 10.2 Early Action and Conflict Prevention 271 Examples of conflict prevention 272 Predicting escalation 275 10.3 Third Parties and Mediation 280 Entering a conflict 281 Approaches to mediation 283 10.4 Structural Changes and Peaceful Conflict 286 Undoing the effects of war 286 Reducing access to arms 287 Tackling the territorial issues 288 Developing democratic institutions 289 Finding new state structures 291 Assessing the role of power 292 10.5 Between the International Community and Pax Americana 293 Notes 297 References 301 Index 311 List of Figures 3.1 Analysis of incompatibility (following Galtung) 37 3.2 Satisfaction of needs and revolution (following Davies) 41 3.3 Synthesizing concepts in conflict analysis 58 Chart 9.1 UN Security Council resolutions, 1946–99 240 List of Tables 1.1 Traumas and hopes forming the agenda of peace research 6 2.1 Number of armed conflicts in the world, 1989–99, annually 26 2.2 Outcomes of armed conflicts, 1989–99, by the end of 1999 29 4.1 Basic types of armed conflicts, 1989–99 77 4.2 Peace agreements in armed conflicts, 1988–2000 80 4.3 Armed conflicts and peace agreements, 1989–99 83 5.1 Interstate armed conflicts, 1989–2000 90 5.2 Peace agreements in interstate armed conflicts, 1989–2000 92 6.1 Peace agreements in civil wars since the Cold War 134 7.1 Peace agreements in state formation conflicts after the Cold War 172 7.2 Solutions to non-territorial, identity-driven conflicts 178 7.3 Territorial solutions to state formation conflicts 183 8.1 Regional conflict complexes with armed conflicts since the Cold War 205 9.1 Agenda setting in the United Nations: the top ten conflicts 243 9.2 Agenda setting in the United Nations: the conflicts least attended to 243 9.3 Major armed conflicts, UN Security Council resolutions and world regions, 1986–1999 246 10.1 Candidates for conflict prevention analysis: disputes since the end of the Cold War 273 Preface The abundance of conflicts and wars since the end of the Cold War has created scepticism about the prospects for peace, security, dialogue and discussion among parties in conflict. We have, however, also had other developments: peacemaking paralleled warmaking. Wars have actually been terminated without the physical or political elimination of the opponent. This book focuses on the ability of opposing parties to negotiate durable agree- ments in spite of the fact that they have fought a bitter war. In many ways, this is historically a new phenomenon indicating that the hopes of success in peacemaking have to be realistic. There is much to be learnt and it is my hope that this work can contribute to that process. This book draws heavily on the facts and figures retrieved by the Uppsala Conflict Data Project at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. Its many collaborators throughout the years have had considerable impact on my thinking. Indeed, the Department as such has served as a productive environment for increasing our understanding of the perplexing realities emerging since the end of the Cold War. I am grateful for inputs from my colleagues, notably Thomas Ohlson, Margareta Sollenberg, Birger Heldt, Kjell-Åke Nordquist and the many active members of the research seminar. I have also benefited a great deal from two longer periods away from the Department. I spent the autumn semester 1999 at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut under the auspices of the Department of Political Science. For this period I was affiliated with the unit for UN Studies. Discussions with Bruce M. Russett, James Sutterlin, Jean Krasno and Leonard Wantchekon were most rewarding, as were inputs from students I was teaching. A stay at the Joan B. Kroc Institute of International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana during the spring semester of 2001 was also important. It was made possible by the Institute and a grant from the American-Scandinavian Foundation. I am particularly grateful to Robert Johansen, Raimo V¨ayrynen and Scott Appelby for this. The book received its xvi PREFACE final touches during a short period as Visiting Canterbury Fellow at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, organized by Jacob Bercovitch. Finally, I owe a particular gratitude to William Montross, for having carefully, critically and constructively read the entire manuscript in his spare time and to my wife Lena for being such a wonderful support.