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Bredband2 I Sk'navien Reason: In-Depth Research Company Sponsored Research Rooted in Fibre, and a Market Contender Not Rated

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Bredband2 I Sk'navien Reason: In-Depth Research Company Sponsored Research Rooted in Fibre, and a Market Contender Not Rated Equity Research - 06 April 2020 23:52 CET Bredband2 i Sk'navien Reason: In-depth research Company sponsored research Rooted in fibre, and a market contender Not rated Market not yet saturated, but growth likely to slow Estimate changes (%) Strong track record, ’19-’22e sales CAGR of 7% 2020e 2021e 2022e We see a fair value range of SEK 0.95-1.83/share Sales -1.2% -1.5% -1.5% EBIT (rep) -3.7% -9.6% -10.4% Fibre remains the superior internet connection alternative EPS (rep) -3.7% -9.6% -10.4% Our analysis focuses on the fibre landscape and how Bredband2 – a Source: ABG Sundal Collier pure fibre-oriented operator – contends in this market. Based on a Share price (SEK) 06/04/2020 1.3 recently report (27 March 2020) from Post och Telestyrelsen (PTS), fibre accounted for 69% of Sweden’s broadband subscriptions in H1’19 vs. Telecommunication Services, Sweden 67% in H2’18. This has expanded rapidly in recent years (up from 49% in BRE2.ST/BRE2 SS 2015) on the back of significant advantages vs. COAX/xDSL as well as large investments in the area. We argue that this will continue to support MCap (SEKm) 876 further market growth, but at a slower rate as fibre deployment gradually MCap (EURm) 79.7 matures. Net debt (EURm) -16 We see relatively low impact from COVID-19 No. of shares (m) 701 While the number of subscriptions is important for sales growth, Free float (%) 70.0 increasing the ARPU is just as important. Bredband2 has historically Av. daily volume (k) 27.3 done well with both, resulting in a ’11-’19 sales CAGR of 16%. Although the broadband market is subject to fierce competition, the firm has kept Next event Q1 report: 05 May its market share relatively intact. In our view, this stems from having its roots in fibre, as well as being a semi-large contender to the telecom Performance behemoths, which in turn has enabled flexible prices. In terms of the 160 COVID-19 impact, the fact that the company generates almost all 150 revenue on a recurring basis is firmly supportive. The main effects that 140 we see are 1) slower fibre deployment and 2) lower churn rates for all 130 120 market participants (which is positive for the internal organisation, but 110 can also hamper potential efforts in taking market share). On this as well 100 as lowered gross margin assumptions, we reduce ‘20e-22e EBIT by 4- 90 10%, and forecast a ’19-22e sales CAGR of 7%. 80 Apr 17 Apr Oct 17 Oct Apr 18 Apr Oct 18 Oct Apr 19 Apr Oct 19 Oct Apr 20 Apr Jun 17 Jun Jun 18 Jun Jun 19 Jun Feb 18 Feb Feb 19 Feb Feb 20 Feb Aug 17 Aug Dec 17 Dec Aug 18 Aug Dec 18 Dec Aug 19 Aug Dec 19 Dec Bredband2 i Sk'navien OMX STH PI ’19-’22e EBIT CAGR of 11%, ’20e EV/EBIT of 13x The main long-term concern we see is the declining gross margin. 1m 3m 12m However, we believe that Bredband2 will be able to scale on its opex, Absolute (%) -9.8 -5.6 15.3 resulting in a ’19-22e EBIT CAGR of 11%. Based on historical NTM profit OMX STH PI (%) -18.3 -22.6 -12.5 multiples and a DCF-derived scenario analysis, we see a fair value range Source: FactSet of SEK 0.95-1.83 per share. Lead analyst: Simon Granath Daniel Thorsson 2020e 2021e 2022e SEKm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e P/E (x) 20.2 17.2 16.0 Sales 600 671 727 780 831 P/E adj (x) 20.2 17.2 16.0 EBITDA 65 75 79 87 92 EBITDA margin (%) 10.9 11.1 10.9 11.1 11.1 P/BVPS (x) 10.06 9.14 8.62 EBIT adj 41 51 56 65 70 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.9 7.9 7.3 EBIT adj margin (%) 6.8 7.6 7.7 8.4 8.5 EV/EBIT adj (x) 12.6 10.5 9.6 Pretax profit 41 51 56 65 70 EV/sales (x) 0.97 0.88 0.81 EPS rep 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 ROE adj (%) 52.3 55.5 55.6 EPS adj 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 Dividend yield (%) 4.8 5.6 5.6 FCF yield (%) 6.0 6.6 7.0 Sales growth (%) 13.9 11.8 8.4 7.3 6.5 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 6.0 6.6 7.0 EPS growth (%) 2.0 26.8 6.9 17.1 8.0 Net IB debt/EBITDA -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Bredband2 i Sk'navien Opportunities Risks The digitalization trend favors Bredband2. There is an The main risks for Bredband2 are 1) generic product, increasing demand on faster and more stable network which makes price an important factor for customers. 2) connections. This is due to more and more connected Market maturity and increased competition, mainly from devices, higher TV resolutions, video-on-demand and bigger players, could cause decline in growth without online games, to mention a few examples. Hence, there is increased margins. 3) High dependence to the net owners, a shift from older network connections to newer ones, like and their continued investments in market expansion. ADSL to fiber. Furthermore, the Swedish government has a set goal that 95% of the Swedish population should have access to broadband by 2020. If this market starts to saturate, there is an opportunity for Bredband2 to seize a better position in the B2B market. Geographical breakdown, sales, SEKm Business area breakdown, sales, SEKm 800 600 700 500 600 400 500 300 400 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Private broadband Business services Sweden services Sales Sales Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2021e, SEK 0.090 0.082 0.085 0.080 0.080 0.078 0.075 0.076 0.070 0.074 0.065 0.072 0.060 0.070 ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm Company description Bredband2 supplies broadband, IP Telephony, data 200 20.0 storage and safety solutions through the fiber network. In 180 18.0 addition, the company offers co-location for webservers, e- 160 16.0 mail and other operation-critical systems with associated 140 14.0 network services such as Internet and VPN. The customer 120 12.0 base is mainly private clients, but Bredband2 also offers a 100 10.0 variety of different products to companies. Today, 80 8.0 Bredband2 is primarily operating in the open city networks, 60 6.0 where there is free competition between different 40 4.0 operators. 20 2.0 0 0.0 quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 6 April 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Bredband2 i Sk'navien Contents Summary ...................................................................................................... 4 Bredband2 in brief ........................................................................................ 6 Market .......................................................................................................... 7 Competitors ................................................................................................ 12 Bredband2’s offered services ..................................................................... 16 Forecasts ................................................................................................... 20 Valuation .................................................................................................... 25 Appendix .................................................................................................... 27 6 April 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 3 Bredband2 i Sk'navien Summary Bredband2 is a Swedish supplier of broadband services through the fibre network. Today, the company holds about 9% of the market. Although the company is much smaller compared to the market leaders (Telia and Telenor), meaning it has weaker financial muscles, it has been able to sustain a fairly stable market share during the last decade. Having a high market share of a rapidly growing market, where the market’s number of connected fibre subscriptions has grown from 0.9m in 2011 to 2.8m in H1’19 (15% CAGR), has resulted in strong sales growth for Bredband2. It has reported 2011-2019 sales and EBIT CAGR of 16% and 30%, respectively. While we anticipate that the fibre deployment rate will slow down ahead as the market matures, we think that the strong market position bodes well for Bredband2 to grow even more. Market shares, Swedish fibre broadband Growing number of fixed fibre broadband connections subscriptions 35% 3,500 140% 30% 3,000 120% 2,754 2,629 25% +15.2% 2,500 2,388 100% 20% 2,029 2,000 80% 15% 1,705 67% 69% 1,442 10% 1,500 62% 60% 1,223 55% 1,034 49% 5% 891 44% 1,000 39% 40% 34% 0% 29% 500 20% Telia Company AB Telenor Sverige AB 0 0% Bahnhof AB Tele2 Sverige AB inkl ComHem 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1'19 Bredband2 AB A3 Privat AB Others Number of fixed broadband subscriptions via fibre Share of fibre subscriptions Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, PTS Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data, PTS Good margin outlook Although the market in terms of fibre deployment has recently decelerated, we believe that Bredband2 can grow its customer base. While we think that gross margins will continue to decline, we assess that Bredband2 can demonstrate operational leverage on its operating costs on the back of increasing sales (solid customer intake combined with an increasing ARPU) in the coming years.
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