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A New Cold War? a Resurgent Russia and the Implications For

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A New Cold War? a Resurgent Russia and the Implications For A NEW COLD WAR? A RESURGENT RUSSIA AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the College of Graduate Studies of Angelo State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree MASTER OF SECURITY STUDIES by ASHLEY NICOLE TANNER May 2016 Major: Intelligence, Security Studies, and Analysis A NEW COLD WAR? A RESURGENT RUSSIA AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY by ASHLEY NICOLE TANNER APPROVED: Dr. Robert S. Ehlers Dr. Jeffrey D. Dailey Dr. William A. Taylor Dr. Christine M. Lamberson 6 April 2016 APPROVED: Dr. Susan E. Keith Dean, College of Graduate Studies DEDICATION To my father, Jerry Haile, who wanted to read this more than anyone. iii ABSTRACT Recent events in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have prompted world leaders to opine that the world is entering a new Cold War. These concerns are based on the recent invasions of Crimea and Ukraine, action in Syria, Russian rhetoric, and military posturing by both sides. Russian history, strategy, and strategic culture provide context for the current state of affairs. These do not, however, guarantee that the present implementation of strategy will mirror the past and that the goals are to return to a Soviet-style, Cold War-era, bipolar world order. The issue is more complex then our own cognitive biases have allowed us to comprehend. Russia is resurgent and does pose a threat to stability, but its goal is neither a Cold War nor a hot war. Rather, it seeks to be treated as an equal and to reassert a greater level of control and influence over its former lands. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DEDICATION ........................................................................................................................ III ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ IV TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................... V INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 6 A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA ........................................................................................ 9 Pre-World War I .................................................................................................................. 10 World War I Through World War II ................................................................................... 12 The Cold War ...................................................................................................................... 15 History of Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea ............................................................................. 16 Post-Cold War ..................................................................................................................... 17 The Leadership of Vladimir Putin ....................................................................................... 18 RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CULTURE & STRATEGY ........................................................... 22 Strategic Culture .................................................................................................................. 23 Russian Military Strategy .................................................................................................... 25 Russian Information Warfare Strategy ................................................................................ 28 Russian Economic Strategy ................................................................................................. 32 Russian Foreign Policy Strategy ......................................................................................... 32 POST-COLD WAR INTERVENTIONISM........................................................................... 35 The Post-Cold War European Landscape ........................................................................... 35 Georgia as an Indicator ....................................................................................................... 39 Initial Involvement in Ukraine (November 2013)............................................................... 44 EUROPEAN INTERVENTIONISM ESCALATES .............................................................. 53 The Takeover of Crimea ..................................................................................................... 53 Crisis in Donbas .................................................................................................................. 58 The Downing of Malaysian Airlines (MH) Flight 17 ......................................................... 67 Continued Escalation in Donbas ......................................................................................... 71 The Revival of Cold War Scare Tactics .............................................................................. 75 v A SHIFT TO SYRIA .............................................................................................................. 80 Russian Regional Interests .................................................................................................. 80 Russian Involvement ........................................................................................................... 84 IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY ....................................... 93 Russian Military Expansion ................................................................................................ 94 Western Goals ..................................................................................................................... 98 Western Security ............................................................................................................... 101 Russia’s Middle East Strategic & Security Goals ............................................................. 105 Global Goals & Security ................................................................................................... 106 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................... 108 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................. 110 BIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................... 121 vi INTRODUCTION Russia’s recent aggression and resurgent military power have left world leaders reeling. Campaigns in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria, along with significant rhetoric directed at former Soviet and Warsaw Pact allies have caused a great deal of concern. There is talk of a new Cold War and even rumblings of the potential for a hot war. But are these concerns valid, or is Russia just using strong rhetoric and the occasional show of force to try to get its way? Or is this simply how one should expect a resurgent Russia to act given Russian history and strategic culture? World leaders seem to be concerned that their fears of another standoff, particularly in Eastern Europe, are at least somewhat valid. Recent NATO exercises there have sought to show Russia a cohesive, capable alliance. Western states have also put in place substantial diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions. World leaders’ fears are not baseless. As Chapter One points out, Russia has a long and notable history of aggression toward its neighbors. Since the late 19th century Russian leaders have sought expanded influence and control over nations they consider either members of Russia or valuable to the larger Russian strategy of absolute control over Russia itself, dominance in near-abroad regions1, and a high degree of influence in the far abroad.2 Many, particularly in Eastern and Central Europe, remember Russia’s decision to hold and, through surrogates, rule territory seized from the Germans in the waning days of World War II. These nations remember the end of the Cold War also, as citizens pushed back against their occupiers and gained their freedom. These nations are, rightfully, highly distrustful of Russia and its resurgence. 1 A term developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union to describe former Soviet States. 2 A term that refers to nations that were not former Soviet States. This can refer to former communist or Warsaw Pact nations, Western nations, and everyone else. 1 Also of concern is Russian strategic culture and its associated grand strategy, both of which are highlighted in Chapter Two. Russian strategic culture is expansionist and highly nationalistic. Russians believe that their country is exceptional, and that they have a right to rule or at least dominate neighboring territories. This worldview translates into a strategy that includes all the elements of national power: military, information warfare, economic measures, and diplomacy. Military posturing is the most notable to external parties, particularly as the invasions of Crimea and eastern Ukraine and military involvement in Syria have seized the attention of the West and countries in other regions. Russian information warfare has also been significant in recent years. In addition to information warfare in the conflicts, heavy propaganda has come from Russia’s English language media outlets whose sole purpose is to spread Kremlin perspectives to the many people
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