SECRET LIAISONS A GROUNDED THEORY STUDY OF UNITED STATES INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION TAN TECK BOON (MASTER OF SOCIAL SCIENCE), NUS A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2012 I hereby declare that this thesis is a strictly product of my own research and that it has not been submitted for a degree at any other tertiary institution ………………………………. Tan Teck Boon ABSTRACT This thesis attempts to establish the most important factors that influence US intelligence cooperation between the National Security Agency (NSA), Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Flaws in US interagency intelligence cooperation are an enduring policy problem. Indeed, 9/11 only served to remind US policy-makers that gaps in NSA–CIA–FBI cooperation remain as significant today as they were in 1941 when the FBI and precursors of the CIA and NSA failed to exchange vital information pointing to an impending attack on Pearl Harbor. To be sure, close NSA–CIA–FBI cooperation did materialize on occasions though the factors that prompted these agencies to join forces remain very much a mystery. To ensure that US intelligence agencies work closely together, policy-makers must first understand the most important factors that facilitated cooperation and then introduce relevant policy initiatives to strengthen them. Guided by a qualitative research methodology called grounded theory, this thesis examined 12 historical cases ranging from the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941 to 9/11 in 2001 for answers. A widely-accepted methodology, grounded theory is a diagnostic tool that emphasizes the natural discovery of insights. The results are then used to identify the reforms and policy initiatives needed to close out gaps in US interagency intelligence cooperation. i This investigation reveals that interagency cooperation is to a great extent instrumentally- oriented. In other words, agencies work together because of the requirement to pool resources and expertise. But on top of instrumentalism, there is also a normative aspect. In particular, interagency cooperation is also guided at times by individualized preferences and mindsets not associated with a cold calculation of instrumentality. On the other hand, this investigation reveals that interagency competition and excessive secrecy limited cooperation more than anything else. Interagency competition promoted unilateral actions on the part of these agencies whereas secrecy, when routinized to an excessive degree, has been found to restrict the flow of vital information. More importantly, these results differ from prevailing perspectives in this policy field – which view interagency cooperation as a function of similarities between agencies – indicating that a new discovery has been made. In conclusion, this thesis argues that an overarching authority with broad powers should be created to coordinate US intelligence activities. At present, the office established in the aftermath of 9/11 to oversee the US intelligence system – the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) – remains sidelined because it lacks substantial administrative, personnel, tasking and budgetary authority. Only an overarching authority with far greater powers than the DNI can push through tough measures needed to bring US intelligence agencies closer. But creating an all-powerful authority to preside over the vast US intelligence system requires strong leadership and political will. Unfortunately, Washington has little of both right now. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people deserve acknowledgement for the completion of my thesis. First of all, I like to thank my thesis supervisor, Associate Prof. Kenneth Paul Tan, for offering valuable advices and assistance throughout my research. Without him, I would not have completed this thesis. I am also indebted to Prof. Simon Chesterman for his kind tutelage and patience. His dedicated support throughout my entire candidature has been indispensable. I am grateful to Prof. Lee Chung Min for accepting me into the PhD program at the Lee Kuan Yew School in the first place and to Associate Prof. Darryl Jarvis for diligently reading some of my drafts and offering valuable comments. Furthermore, I am also grateful to Prof. Richard K. Betts and Prof. Robert Jervis for supervising me when I was an exchange student at Columbia University under the Global Public Policy Network PhD Exchange Program. I am thankful to the following faculty and staff members of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy for their kindness and constant guidance (in alphabetical order): Prof. Mukul Asher, Assistant Prof. Paul Barter, Ms. Ruth Choe, Ms. Gina Ho, Dr. Kelvin Lee, Ms. Andrea Liew Yihui, Dean Kishore Mahbubani, Associate Prof. Phua Kai Hong, Associate Prof. M. Ramesh, Assistant Prof. Gopi Rethinaraj, Ms. Agnes Tan, Associate Prof. Dodo Thampapillai and Associate Prof. Wu Xun. I am also thankful to my thesis examiners – Associate Prof. Heng Yee Kuang of the Lee Kuan Yew School and Assistant Prof. Bae Yooil of the Singapore Management University. iii I am also indebted to those whom I interviewed for this thesis. They are: Mr. Matthew Aid (National Security Archives), Prof. Graham Allison (Harvard University), Mr. Robert Louis Benson (NSA historian), Prof. Richard K. Betts (Columbia University), Prof. Burton Lee Gerber (Georgetown University and former senior CIA official), Prof. Robert Jervis (Columbia University), Dr. John Earl Haynes (US Library of Congress), Prof. Frederick Hitz (University of Virginia and former CIA Inspector General), Prof. Harvey Klehr (Emory University), Prof. Paul Pillar (Georgetown University and former senior CIA official), Mr. Ivian C. Smith (former senior FBI official), Prof. Athan Theoharis (Marquette University) and Prof. Philip Zelikow (University of Virginia). These experts have been most helpful and open toward me even though I am a foreigner poking my nose into sensitive US national security matters. In addition, I like to thank Ms. Lim Bee Toh, Ms. Suguna Balasingam and the staff of C J Koh Law Library for helping me to obtain hard to find publications. Mr. Tan Nguyen of Columbia University’s School of International & Public Affairs also deserves a word of thanks. Funding for this thesis is provided by the National University of Singapore in the form of a research scholarship and the Presidential Fellowship. The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy also provided financial as well as administrative support during my candidature. I like to thank these institutions for their valuable support. Last but not least, I am grateful to all my family members for their constant support and understanding during my dissertation journey. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... v LIST OF DIAGRAMS......................................................................................................... xi LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................xiii ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................ xiv CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 1 1.1 THE 9/11 ATTACKS ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS .............................................................................................. 7 1.3 GENERAL RESEARCH DESIGN ................................................................................. 7 1.4 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF RELEVANT STUDIES ....................................................... 12 1.5 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS AND POLICY SIGNIFICANCE.......................... 15 1.6 SCOPE OF THE THESIS .............................................................................................. 20 1.7 RESEARCH LIMITATIONS ........................................................................................ 22 1.8 SUMMARY OF THESIS FINDINGS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION ....... 23 1.9 SHAPE OF THE THESIS .............................................................................................. 25 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................... 27 2.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................... 27 2.2 THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY....................................... 28 2.2.1 COORDINATING MECHANISMS WITHIN THE USIC ...................................... 31 2.3 WHY US INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES SHUN COOPERATION .......................... 37 2.3.1 LIMITED INTERAGENCY COOPERATION DUE TO THE ‘FOREIGN VS. DOMESTIC’ DICHOTOMY............................................................................................... 38 2.3.2 LIMITED INTERAGENCY COOPERATION DUE TO THE ‘MILITARY VS. CIVILIAN’ DICHOTOMY.................................................................................................. 40 v 2.3.3 LIMITED INTERAGENCY