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Home , Htin Aung, Khin Nyunt, Konbaung dynasty, Maung Aye, Soe Win (general), Soe Win (prime minister)

DANCING OR STRICKEN Alagappa's observation that transitional PEACOCK? , states are not necessarily in linear evolution to Western models of SUU KYI AND THE democratic governance, for this expected POLITICS OF trajectory 'has not been borne out in INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE practice' whilst 'politics in developing countries has its own dynamics.' 2 IN Alagappa's views resonate also in the writings of Robert Taylor who notes the Helen James1 complexity and problematic task of grafting multi-party democratic systems onto societies like Myanmar with weak Abstract traditions of civil society, low levels of economic development and patron• In a country where signs, symbols and clientalist politico-social structures. 3 The astrology have played key roles in its following paper focuses on some of the political and cultural evolution, the key political and socio-economic issues at peacock as the emblem of an independent the heart of achieving evolutionary state has had a chequered history in institutionai change in Myanmar (Burma). Myanmar (Burma). Frequently juxtaposed to the Sheldrake, emblem of the Southern Introduction Mon kingdom centred on Pegu until incorporation into the larger Burmese empire in the mid-18th century, the country In his two well-known books on the failing peacock could not withstand the advances fortunes of the monarchical , of the rampant British lion during the 19th the former Rector of Rangoon () century. It is now a protected bird University, Professor Dr. Htin Aung, accorded sanctuary, and placed on a presented an incisive analysis of the fate of pedestal with reverence ·almost equal to the indigenous institutions of this small that of the sacred '' found Southeast Asian country during the height recently in the jungles of . Such of the colonial era: the failure to uphold indigenous institutions are playing a the central role of the Buddhist , critical role as the transitional state of the destruction of the monarchy, and the Myanmar seeks to transform its political subordination of Burmese culture as the and socio-economic fabric after 26 years traditional state identity to that of British of socialist policies ( 1962-1988). In . His volume, Lord Randolph analyzing the politics of institutional Churchill and the Dancing Peacock: the change in contemporary Myanmar, we are British Conquest of Burma, 1885, tells the forced to take account of Muthiah story of the political machinations of the Secretary of State for India at the time of

1 Ph.D.,Visiting Fellow, Centre oflntemational Studies. and Clare Hall, Cambridge University. 2 Muthiah Alagappa. 1995. Political Legitimacy She is also a Visiting Fellow with the Asia in Southeast Asia: the Moral Question. Stanford: Pacific School of Economics and Government Standford University Press, p.5 . and the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, the Australian National University. 3 Robert H Taylor. 1987. The S tate in Burma. Her field of research in Thai!Myanrnar Studies. Honolulu: University ofHawaii Press.

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the Third Anglo-Burmese War in 1885, decisions -private as well as public which resulted in the remainder of Upper - the royal history of the peacock Burma, with its capital at , being sanctifies its association. 6 As emblem of annexed in 1 886 as a province of British the Konbaung , the last indigenous India. U Htin Aung's other volume, The Burmese empire, which in 1757 overcame Stricken Peacock: Anglo-Burmese the Sheldrake, emblem of the Southern Relations 1752-1948, analyses, from the Mon kingdom based on Pegu, the peacock Burmese perspective, the changing pattern is associated with power and political of British interactions with the Konbaung legitimacy. It is evocative of those Dynasty, resulting in the gradual indigenous institutions which the state of dissection of Burma in the three wars Myanmar appears to be seeking to recover fought with Britain during the nineteenth• from its monarchical past. century (1824-1826; 1852; 1855), up to the re-gaining of Burma's independence The symbolism of the peacock takes on on 4 January 1948.4 In both volumes U additional significance in the context of a Htin Aung uses the peacock as the symbol recent local tale. The story goes like this: of the indigenous monarchical state of two beautiful peacocks used to live in one independent Burma. 5 U Htin Aung's of the foreign embassies in Yangon. evocation of the peacock imagery - Named Than Shwe and Suu Kyi, the two dancing or stricken - thus powerfully peacocks were inseparable; where one suggests Burma's efforts to sustain its went, the other followed as surely as day autonomous existence as an independent follows night. Then one day the peacock, state, and its agony as that independence Than Shwe, went belly-up, feet in the air, was extinguished. and died. Th~ peacock, Suu Kyi, was inconsolable. She- mourned, wandered The peacock has long been associated with away, and was never seen again. royalty and state power, not just in Burma• Myanmar, but also in other countries such In Myanmar, where astrology has as India and Iran. In contemporary determined some key political and Myanmar, the peacock is again a protected economic decisions, the story of two bird which none may keep without a peacocks has overtones of political 7 licence. In a country where signs, symbols allegory. Long time Myanmar observers, and astrology imbue the very fabric of everyday existence and determine many

6 Burmese people traditionally do not take 4 In this paper, the word Burma designates the family names; when a child is born he/she state before 1988; Myanmar refers to the state receives a name in accordance with the day of after 1988, when the country's name was the week on which birth occurred and in officially changed by the government of the day accordance with the astrologer's advice. A and registered with the . Burmese colleague told me that he changed his name when advised by the astrologer that his 5 Hiin Aung. 1990. Lord Randolph Churchill name would bring him into conflict with his and the Dancing Peacock: British Conquest of father in later life. The new name also given by Bumia. 1885. Daryaganj. India: Manohar, 1990: the astrologer. Htin Aung. 1965. The Stricken Peacock: Anglo• Burmese Relations 1752-1948. The Hague: 7 For example, during the time of the late dictator, Nijhoff. General , a series of the demonetizations,

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watching the ebb and flow of the political the country's leaders will need to chart, reconciliation process brokered by UN astutely, an extraordinarily complex path Special Envoy, Tun Razali Ismail, have in order to restore the political and socio• often pondered the apparently symbiotic economic fortunes of the state. relationship b etween the Chairman o f the State Peace and Development Committee Dramatic Personae (SPDC), Senior General Than Shwe, and his bete noire, leader, Daw Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of Suu Kyi, General-Secretary of the SPDC and Commander-in-Chief of the the National League for Democracy Defence Services, has been both Head of (NLD), the amalgam of disparate political Government and since 1992. groups which won over 60 per cent of the Following the elevation of the former votes in the May 1990 elections, but which Secretary-!, General , to the the military government in Myanmar has position of Prime Minister on 25 August never permitted to govern. 2003, Senior General Than Shwe relinquished the role of Head of Looking at the political fortunes of Government to General Khin Nyunt as Myanmar since the 30 May 2003 incident, Prime Minister. Senior General Than one might ask: Will the country survive - Shwe is reputed not to favour the glare of as a dancing peacock trying to retain its public life and to have been wishing to autonomy -or will it become the stricken retire for some time. He is also known to bird of history? The fate of the peacoc~ is have an intense aversion towards Daw integral to the strategic decisions being , whose name is not to taken high level to try to ensure a be mentioned in his presence. prosperous future for the country. In this regard, another indigenous emblem enters In early October 2003, the Myanmar the picture, the two sacred white elephants Times, the English language newspaper in which in 2002 were found in the jungles of Yangon, whose editor is Australian, Ross Arakan. Considered an embryo Buddha, Dunkley, and whose overall control comes the sacred white elephants is considered to under that of the new Prime Minister, presage great good fortune and prosperity printed an article stating that General for the country. In past history, possession Than Shwe had retired (from being Head of the sacred white elephants was the belli of Government); that the Prime Minister for wars between Burma and its neighbour, would henceforth take responsibility for Siam, in the 16th- 18th centuries. As might economic management, while Vice-Senior be expected of such an emblem, white General would take elephants are specially housed, clothed responsibility for the armed forces. Vice and tendered, befitting the symbolism of 8 Senior General Maung Aye is currently their station. To realize this prosperity, Vice-Chairman of the SPDC and Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Defence which immediately impoverished the middle class, Services. The SPDC is the military junta was guided by his penchant for astrology and which has governed the country since numerology. Currency was re-issued in 1988, initially as the State Law and Order denominations of nine, which he considered his lucky number. His sixth (brief) marriage was also determined by astrology. 8 I was taken to see the sacred white elephant in November 2002.

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Restoration Council (SLORC), then, since portrayed the PriP"~e Minister seated on a 1997, as the SPDC. It has an indeterminate higher level than' that of Secretary-! and number of members and should not be Secretary-2. P.received to be a refof!Iler confused with the Cabinet, which is a who has fostered Myanmar's re- separate entity of 35 minutes, 10 of whom engagement with the international currently are civilians. community, the new Prime Minister now has. responsibility for steering Myanmar On the operational side, under the Prime through the complex tasks associated with Minister, are the new Secretary-!. Lt. the restoration of democracy in the General , and the new Secretary- country, and reviving the economy of this 2, Lt. General . Lt. General Soe very poor nation, which was declared a Win. was previously the Regional Least Developed Country (LDC) in 1987. Commander of the North Western in , where the 30 May Since September 2003, the new roles of 2003 incident took place. Following a the Senior Gen~ral and the Prime Minister series of speeches criticizing Daw Aung have been delineated in a series of state San Suu Kyi in early 2003, he was visits by foreign dignitaries from India, elevated to fill the post of Secretary-2, left and other Asian countries. In vacant for some time by the death in 2002 each case, the President of the foreign of then Secretary-2, General Tin Oo (not polity is received by Senior General Than to be confused with the General Tin Oo Shwe, suggesting that the position of who is Deputy General Secretary of the Chairman of the SPDC might be being NLD). In the re-organization of the transformed into that of a ceremonial responsibilities of the top structure President similar to the situation with announced on 25 August 2003, Lt. pertained in Myanmar shortly after General Soe Win was promoted to the independence; whereas the , role of the position of Secretary-!, indicative of Prime Minister is c !early that of Head of having performed well and to the Government. He receives his counterparts, satisfaction of Senior General Than Shwe attended the 9th ASEAN summit in Bali, 7- in his previous position. At this stage, little 8 October 2003, and held consultations is known of the new Secretary-2, Lt. with the Premier of , Wen Jiao-bao.9 General Thein Sein. It is likely that the final shape of the top structure may continue to evolve further as Under the division of responsibilities prior decisions are made concerning the to 25 August, General Khin Nyunt as composition of the country's legislative Secretary-! had control of the resources of bodies once a new constitution IS the Military Intelligence Service (MIS). promulgated. This led some commentators to surmise that his move to Prime Minister was a On the opposite bench is Daw Aung Sana 'demotion.' In Myanmar political culture, Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace Prize winner and this is a puzzling interpretation; not only daughter of independence leader, General does the new Prime Minister have at his Aung San, who was assassinated along command the resources of MIS, but also with five members of his cabinet by of all other components of the state former premier, U Saw, and his associates apparatus. To re-inforce the public image of his elevation, photo opportunities 9 Sydney Morning Herald, 8 October 2003.

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on 19 July 1947. As General-Secretary of (KIA), then the NLD, she has been a focal point for the proceeded south towards province, movement to restore democracy to the former royal precinct just ou~side Myanmar since her return to the country in Mandalay, known to be a stronghold of 1988. Charismatic in personality and staunchly nationalist (and socialist) determined in her stance, she has been sentiments among the population. Sagaing seen as the beacon of hope for all those is also the region previously under the who have suffered under military rule command of the new Secretary-2, Lt. since the coup in 2 March 1962, which General Soe Win. In monarchical times, brought the military, under the late Sagiang hosted a series of royal capitals General Ne Win, to power. and was the area delineated for the ahmudan class to live, that group which In Myanmar political culture, Daw Aung served the royal power and did not pay San Suu Kyi appears to take on the taxes (as distinct from the athi, who paid characteristics of the minlaung, the saviour taxes, but were exempt from royal service). of the country, and is so presented in the Accompanied by an ever-increasing international press. There have been many number of followers, Daw Aung San Suu such figures in Burmese-Myanmar history, Kyi's progress would have had the but few have succeeded, the last notable overtones of a royal cavalcade, which success being Alaunghpaya (1752-1760), could not but be interpreted as a direct the first monarch of the last indigenous challenge, by a potential minlaung, to the Burmese dynasty, the central authority. On hearing of her (1752-1885). Raising his standard in the progress, Senior General Than Shwe is north at , from whence various reported to said, 'Do we have to put up other pretenders have since tried their with this?' Those nearby reportedly heard fortunes, Alaunghpaya gathered his forces and acted on it. 10 to finally overwhelm his Mon opponents at Pegu in 1757. The north ofMyanmar, Political Culture around Shwebo and beyond, has a long tradition of hosting the minlaung. In this Since 1988, Myanmar may be part of the country, the Padein Prince in characterized as a transitional state seeking 1866 sought unsuccessfully to challenge to evolve to a market economy after 26 his uncle, King Mindon; here in the north, years of socialist autarky (1962-1988). In the Limbin Prince raised his standard, also 1988-89 the legislative framework for the unsuccessfully, against British colonial former socialist economy was officially occupation in 1886. The Chaunggwa abrogated and replaced by a series of laws prince and the Myinzaing princes, in the giving effect to a market economy. same period, did likewise. Upper Embracing a market economy is usually Myanmar thus evokes powerful traditions associated in political theory with efforts of challenges to central authority by to develop a more open Society and charismatic figures. enhancement of the institutions of democratic governance. In Myanmar When Daw Aung San Suu Kyi went north in May 2003, the thirteenth anniversary of 10 the unacknowledged election victory, she It is said that neither Prime Minister reportedly held discussions with the General Khin Nyunt, nor Vice-Senior General Maung Aye were present at this discussion.

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however, the move to the market has been need considerable support and assistance halting, characterized by substantial in putting in place the institutions which continued state intervention, support for a underpin this system. In turn, such a large number of deficit-producing state• fundamental change presages considerable owned enterprises (SOBs), and continued re-training of civil, judicial, and legislative authoritarian (military) rule. Those who professionals, and a complementary look to the opposition NLD to usher in a approach in education, to underpin the new era of democratic governance see this sustainability of a viable civil society. The as the most desirable means of attempting resources required for such a change in to change the hierarchical nature of political culture are immense, and Myanmar political culture. presently wanting. They will need to come from the international community, which However, this perspective fails to take into constantly calls on Myanmar to change its account the essentially authoritarian nature form of governance, but, sadly, withholds of the indigenous state. Myanmar's history, the resources which might encourage that whether that of its earliest classical transformation to evolve. kingdom at (850-1287); its 16th and 18th century empires; its democratic Myanmar is an overwhelmingly agrarian welfare state during the era of country with around 70 per cent of its over parliamentary democracy (1948- 50 million people living in rural areas on 1958;1960-62); or indeed, the colonial small subsistence farms. Some 64 per cent state (1886-1948), has projected power of the labour force earns a living from through the populace by authoritarian agriculture which p r~>Vides a round 4 8 per means. Suppression of dissent and jailing cent of GDP. 11 The industrial sector, of political opponents characterized the including mining, manufacturing and trade, earlier experiences with multi-party currently accounts for only around 10 per democracy both during the diarchy period cent of GDP. This asymmetrical (1937-1940) and the era of parliamentary demographic profile means that democracy, as they have during the four international sanctions inhibiting the decades of military rule. If multi-party development of the country's trade have elections were held tomorrow, this limited impact, mostly on the urban poor, essentially authoritarian nature of the mostly women, in low-paid factory jobs, indigenous Burmese state would not who are thrown into destitution when change. The process of turning subjects into citizens (which in Western Europe 11 was well underway throughout the See H, James. 2003. Co-operation and eighteenth century) with political and civil Community Empowerment in Myanmar in the Context of Myanmar Agenda 21, Journal of right as well as social and economic rights, Asian Pacific Economic Literature, 17 (1): 1- has yet to begin in Myanmar. This means 21 for a detailed discussion of the demographic that the institutions to support a non• implications of this pattern of resource authoritarians form of governance is to be distribution. Statistics come from World Bank. moderated. · 2002. World Development Report 2 00012001: Attacking Poverty, New York: Oxford If, in future, Myanmar moves to University Press and Asian Development Bank. democratic form of governance based on 2000. Country Assistance Plan (2000-2002) multi-party elections, the country will Myanmar,.Manila : Asian Development Bank.

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those factories close because their export the military thus provides an attractive markets have disappeared. 12 Sanctions career, especially for landless rural people; have no effect on the ruling elite. If it soaks up unemployment and provides sanctions are intended to foster democratic access to training opportunities and social governance, then they are the wrong tool mobility. The gap between the civilian and to achieve this end. Sanctions foster the military segments of society is a vast extreme nationalism, a return to autarkic problem which any reformist government modes of economic and political will have to address. Equally problematic behaviour, and entrench the authoritarian will be the gradual training of the military political culture. If the West wishes to establishment to accept control by a support the evolution of democratic civilian government, as now appears to be governance in Myanmar, it will need to the case in neighbouring Thailand. Such acknowledge that a vastly different an evolutionary process is likely to take a approach is required, one which requires considerable time in Myanmar, where the more patience, more skill, more military are thought that they are the investment of reso\{rces to foster saviours of the country from the Myanmar's educational and economic machinations of civilian politicians whose development, and more respect for the actions in the past have been judged to capacity of the people to manage their smack of disloyalty imperiling the survival evolution to a modern state. of the state.

It is often said that the military in In recent years, there are signs that the Myanmar is the only institution town. At government has been seeking to address first glance this assessment appears correct. the perception of mono-institutionalism The Myanmar military is reputed to be through actively re-creating the over 400,000 strong, with separate institutions of the pre-colonial indigenous educational, health, and training facilities, state. Thus, the position of the Buddhist in fact, a state within a state.13 Service in Sangha has been enhanced and made central to all religious and cultural life. 14 New have been built: the major 12 Myanmar is now finding alternate markets for temples at Bagan have been the subject of its textile exports in the wake of the most recent extensive conservation measures. The round of US sanctions. See Myanmar Times, 20 Shwe Dagon in Yangon, is annually re• October 2003. gilded and presented as the central unifying political and religious symbol of 13 Mary Callaghan. 2001. Soldiers as State the country, as it had been during the Builders, in Muthiah Alagappa. (ed). 2001. Konbaung Dynasty, before the British Governance and coercion: the declining occupied Rangoon in 1852.15 It is here that political role of the military in Asia, Stanford University Press, pp.413-429. Both Callaghan and Alagappa acknowledge that Myanmar, National University, provides a detailed analysis where the military has ruled for over 40 years, is of the evolution of the Myanmar military. an exception to the general situation in Asia where civilian control of the military is 14 The Sangha is the term used for the becoming the norm. Andrew Seith. 1996. institution of the Buddhist monkhood. Transforming the : the Burmese Armed Forces since 1988, Canberra: Strategic 15 When King Mindon wanted to have a new and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian hti, umbrella, installed on the top of the Shwe

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the ceremony to commemorate Aung San exchange for their joining the union. 17 The and the martyrs of 19 July 1947 is held. turbulent history of Burma since 1948 is Young monks come here to take their oral inseparable from their desires for examinations before a senior monk. The autonomy. 18 Approaches to institutional presentation of kathin robes to monks at development which ameliorate the the end of the rainy season by members of essentially authoritarian character of the the elite governing group is given Bunnese-Myanmar state will need to take extensive media coverage. At the same into account these desires of the minority time, the Sangha is made to serve the state peoples for a measure of 'home rule', through registration and strict control of otherwise the longtenn survival of the monks, who have a history of violent state could again be in jeopardy. Given the challenge to the central authority, both in government's insistence on a unitary state contemporary times and during earlier -a revival of 'federalism' being unlikely • eras. 16 As an indigenous institution the approach being taken, through the however, the Sangha has again been cease-fire arrangements and programs for accorded a central legitimating role as it the development of the border regions and had been during the monarchical state. minority peoples, suggests that a pattern of administration similar to that which The second major indigenous institution is prevailed before the colonial era, might be the state itself, which is sometimes being considered. This would restore some conflated with 'regime.' The supremacy of measure of self-government at the local the state as an institution is apparent in all level, but retain the notion of a centralized official documentation. Peace, unity and state. stability are proclaimed as the state objectives; survival of the unitary state is In neighbouring Thailand, the three pillars the priority of the government. For the are state, Sangha and monarchy. In minority peoples, of which there are over Myanmar, where the monarchy was 100, however, peace, unity and stability is officially abolished in 1886 with the to be achieved through a federated state in deportation of the last king, Thibaw, and which they have the autonomy held out as his Queen, , to India, the a promise at the 1947 Panglong monarchy is reflected in the re• agreements brokered by Aung San in construction of key palaces associated with the past glories of the Burmese state, 1 in particular the palaces at Mandalay (19 h century), Pegu (16th century), and Bagan (11th century), correlating with the three Dagon, as had various previous monarchs of the periods of the Burmese empire. These Konbaung dynasty, the British, aware of the palaces have been painstakingly political symbolism of the Shwe Dagon, opposed his intention to pay a personal visit to the shrine. · 17 ·These involved only three of the major ethnic minorities - the Shan, Kachins, and Chin. They 16 Most recently in Upper Myanmar at did not, for example, include the Karen. , there were disturbances between monks and Muslims. The authorities ordered 18 The insurgencies which erupted at monks to stay in their temples to avoid the independence in 1948 have now been mostly possibility of further disturbances. negotiated to cease-fires. The govenunent claims that 19 'arms for peace' arrangement are in place.

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reconstructed from architectural drawings seriously hurt; and that General Tin Oo and are a tribute to Myanmar craftsmen. had been killed. As it turned out, neither of Considerable resources have been these rumours were accurate. However, expended on the reconstructions which the two leaders of the NLD were taken visualize for the present generation the into protective custody along with some past glories of the indigenous culture. The 35 of their supporters. Eight were absent monarchy is thus present in these subsequently released. reconstructions. At Mandalay in November 2002, a Myanmar colleague This incident caused international outrage, indicated the plaster replica of King leading to universal calls for Daw Aung Thibaw seated within the reconstructed San Suu Kyi's release and led the US to palace and said to me, 'That is my king.' impose tighter sanctions which impacted Although at various times since 1962 there on the country's textile exports and have been some tentative suggestions that capacity to conduct international trade. one or other of the military group might Amongst the higher government echelons, assume the monarchical role, it seems there was much 'finger-pointing' to cast increasingly unlikely that such an event 'blame' for the tragedy; and for the will occur. More probable is that the extremely precarious pos1t10n which monarchical institution is being subsumed resulted for the country. For a time the in evocations of the past as the fall-out derailed the reform program which government instead reifies 'the people.' had been chogging along gradually since Yet, if 'the people' are to become the third 1997. It most certainly precipitated the top pillar, the reform process, which appears structure changes announced on 25 August, to have intensified following the top as a desperate effort by the government structure re-shuffle on 25 August 2003, group regain control of the situation. A will need to incorporate the institution• diplomatic flurry, including speeches to building required to transform 'subjects' the UN by the Foreign Minister, U Win into 'citizens'. Aung, and other senior Foreign Minister officials, was launched to repair the The 30 May Incident damage.

At Depayin, in northern Myanmar, on 30 On 9 November 2003, the official May 2003, the cavalcade of Daw Aung announcement that there were no San Suu Kyi was confronted and attacked restrictions on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's by a large group from the Union Solidarity freedom came as almost an anti-climax. Development Association (USDA), a Following successful surgery for a government mass organization with a gynaecological condition, she had been membership of some 16 million members. recuperating at home for some weeks. In In the ensuring melee, an indeterminate, early October, Foreign Minister, U Win but reputedly large number of people were Aung, was quoted as saying that she was killed. It is said that it had been arranged not under house arrest; a few days later, for people to come from Mandalay for this Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself was purpose; but they had returned home when quoted as saying that she was satisfied they were not paid. Others on hand took with the protection being accorded. In the over. Rumours immediately circulated that wake of the violence, the government had some concerns that her safety might be at Daw Aung San Suu Kyi had been

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risk from certain elements in the country. hand on the pulse of all policy matters. His However, confirmation of her status came move to become Head of Government, as almost an anti-climax; it was not reportedly mooted even prior to 30 May covered in the local press, which 2003, now gives him responsibility. for concentrated on the state visit by the Vice• driving the processes which are to return President of India and his high level Myanmar to democratic governance. His delegation, and on the government round personal credibility is now on the line, a of ceremonial activities, including visits factor which will assist greatly in making by key senior members of the SPDC to sure it happens. However, the return to elementary schools in the area of Upper democratic governance will be 'Myanmar Myanmar where the 30 May incident took style', as made clear in his 'State of the place. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself was Union' speech on 30 August 2003. quoted as saying that she would not 'accept freedom' until all of her followers, The Seven Point Plan to Restore taken into custody at the time of the Democracy mct. "d ent, were re 1ease d . 19 The new Prime Minister's seven point Significance of the Top Structure plan to return democratic rule to Myanmar, Changes as announced on 30 August, envisages that the National Convention, suspended since The disarray in the senior echelons of the 1996, will be reconvened as the first step Myanmar government caused by the in a process leading to what he styles fallout from the 30 May incident provided 'genuine disciplined democracy.' The the impetus for General Khin Nyunt's national convention will be tasked with elevation to the Prime Ministership. It was drafting a new constitution. A referendum widely seen as a tactical move to preserve will then be held preparatory to the new stability and power at a time when the constitution being adopted. When this country was rocked by economic crisis process is completed, 'free and fair and international pressure. Viewed as a elections' will be held to elect reformer who has driven Myanmar's re• representatives to the Pyithu Hluttaws engagement with the international (Legislative assemblies); then the community, General Khin Nyunt brings to Hluttaws (Pyithu and Amyotha, the the office not only his experience as Assembly of the Nationalities) will be former Secretary-1 in charge of the convened. These steps are seen as the military intelligence services and the building blocks for a 'modem developed operational running of the country, but democratic nation.' These steps were re• also experience gained in international affirmed during the press conference affairs during the time when he served following the Prime Minister's speech. closely the late General Ne Win, whom he accompanied on international visit. As Omitted from the plan, and side-stepped Secretary- !, General Khin Nyunt had during question time following it, are .any been chair of many of the key high level indication of a tirneframe for the process co-ordinating committees and kept his to be completed; clarification on whether the 'free and fair elections' are multi-party elections, or only single- party elections 19 The Sydney Morning Herald, 9 November along the lines of those held during the 2003.

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socialist era; what role the minority role in these processes, despite calls from peoples will have in these processes·; and international supporters for the NLD to be whether the N LD will be included in the included. At the time the Constitution processes. The Prime Minister's responses drafting processes were suspended in i 996, at question time made it clear that he did some 104 principles has been 'agreed'. not wish to stipulate a timeframe, even These included mandatory requirements though many commentators pointed out for the Head of State/Head of Government that this was a weakness in the plan which to have been resident in the country for a had lead its critics to label it 'old wine in continuous period of 2 0 years; not (ever) new bottles'.· Nevertheless, in September married to foreigner; not have any relative 2003 steps were quickly taken to set in married to a foreigner.20 It has been noted place the administrative arrangements for that these principles would exclude Daw re-convening the National Convention and Aung San Suu Kyi from eligibility since, appointments were made to two high-level prior to 1988, she had been resident in support committees. Rallies were also held (and has now been continuously around the country, by the USDA, in resident in Myanmar for 15 years) and had support of the plan. been married to an Englishman, the late Tibetan specialist, Michael Aris. Whether the plan succeeds or not will depend largely on the role the minority There is no doubt that arrangements are peoples play. As soon as it was announced, pressing ahead for re-convening the various minority groups also put forward National Convention, and expediting the their own 'plans' and made it clear that processes leading to a new Constitution. they must participate in the processes, if Some of the minority groups also appear these processes are to have any credibility. to be being included in the processes. But This will be a useful experience for there are many difficult issues to be Myanmar leaders in managing 'participative addressed, not the least of which is the role, practices', a political concept which has not if any, ofthe NLD. been in evidence in Myanmar's authoritarian political anthropology. In November, three Given Myanmar's authoritarian political key minority groups announced they culture, lack of experience with multi• would participate in the National party democracy, and announced penchant Convention processes. At issue is how for 'disciplined democracy', it is likely they will participate, their motivations, and that the processes described above will interactions, participation could be with lead, in the initial phase, to either a one• the objective of de-railing a process party system controlled by the military whose likely outcomes do not suit their government in which the military goals. representatives each has two votes as part of an electoral college system; or that the Foreign observers are watching too, to see 'multi-parties' which contest the elections what role, ifany, the NLD will have. The will in fact be government-empathetic NLD in 1996 walked out of the National parties. There are presently reported to be Convention processes, then, when they tried to return, were excluded. The Prime 20 Minister's responses at question time With these principles in mind, the Prime made it clear that the NLD will·not have a Minister publicly disowned his son who married a Singaporean.

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10 parties (excluding the NLD) which are between five to ten years, a timeframe registered to participate in any elections allowing for the country's economic which might be held. development to grow to such a level that it can support the institutional The shape of the Myanmar government transformation required for democratic then, o ver the n ext five years, i s 1ikely to governance. show a gradual assumption of some of the institutional framework of democratic Conclusion governance, in accordance with international expectations of how a modem So, · will Myanmar be a dancing or a state should function, but still maintain stricken peacock? Skilful implementation military control of the apparatus of of the Prime Minister's seven point plan to government. With support from its return Myanmar to democratic governance ASEAN neighbours, and China and India, will be only part of the evolutionary such a gradual transformation many enable change required. Learning the art of the government to improve the socio• compromise, so necessary to implanting a economic credentials oft he country, t bus democratic tradition, will be a steep providing the resources for continued learning curve for Myanmar. All parties in political evolution in the following 21 the conflict have shown a propensity to phase. The role that neighbouring view the world only through their own Thailand and Malaysia can play in lens and to claim that only they can be the brokering this transformation will be country's saviours. But it will take a lot of critical. I do not envisage that Myanmar 'learning to live together' 22 for the will move to 'phase two' of democratic contending parties in Myanmar to truly put governance - that presently exhibited in th~ interest of the nation - and the future Thailand where the military has stepped of the younger generation - before their back from dominance of public life and own interests. accepts civilian control - until the country has established working experience with the basic institutions, the new constitution, References and multi-party elections leading to a peaceful passage of power. This Alagappa, M. 1995. Political Legitimacy transitional process would take, I believe, in Southeast Asia: the Moral Question, Stanford: Standford University Press. 21 During the state visit of the Vice-President of Alagappa, M. 2001. Governance and India, on 2 November, India provided a loan of Coercion: the declining political USD57 million to Myanmar for upgrading of the role of the military in Asia, Yangon-Mandalay railroad. At the 12 November Stanford: Standford University 2003 four nation economic summit held at Bagan, Press. between Thailand, Myanmar, and Cornbodia, 1bailand sponsored discussions for the economic development of its less prosperous neighbours. China announced a further USD200 million investment in Myanmar to improve 22 U 1ban Aung. Minister for Education, electricity generation capacity at the same time as Preface, Quoted in U Han Tin. 2000. Myanmar the US president was putting in place further Education: Status, Issues and Challenges, Journal economic sanctions. ofSoutheast Asian Education, (1): 132-60.

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Asian Development Bank. 2000. Country World Bank. 2002. World Development Assistance Plan (2000-2003) Report 200012001 : Attacking Myanmar, Manila: Asian Poverty, New York: Oxford Development Bank. University Press. Callaghan, M. 2001. Soldiers as State Builders, in Alagappa. M. 2002, Governance and Coercion: the declining political role of the military in Asia, Stanford: Standford University Press. Htin Aung. 1965. The Stricken Peacock: Anglo-Burmese Relations 1752- 1948, The Hague: Nijhoff. · Htin Aung. 1990. Lord Randolph Churchill and the Dancing Peacock: British Conquest of Burma, 1885, Daryaganj, India: Manohar. James, H. 2003. Cooperation and Community Empowerment in Myanmar in the context of Myanmar Agenda 21, Journal of Asian Pacific Economic Literature, 17(1): 1-21. Myanmar Times, 5 October 2003. Myanmar Times, 2 November 2003. Myanmar Times, 12 November 2003. Myanmar Times, 20 November 2003. Sydney Morning Herald, 8 October 2003. Sydney Morning Herald, 9 November 2003. Seith, A. 1996. Transforming the Tatmadaw: the Burmese Armed Forces since 1988, Canberra: Centre for Strategic and Defence Studies, The Australian National University. Taylor, R.H. 1987. The State in Burma, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press. U Han Tin. 2000. Myanmar Education: Status, Issues and Challenges, Journal of Southeast Asian Education, (1): 132-60.

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