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March 2007 Pilgrims has compiled this report, drawing on information from a variety of media, open and privileged sources. Any feedback on this report is most welcome and should be addressed to: Email: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)1483 228 787 The aim of this report is to provide clients with an overview of key issues in Nigerian politics and security with an assessment of its future course Nigeria – Security Assessment Introduction 2 The Political Climate 2 Security and Politics in the Oil Producing Regions 4 Tension and Inter-group Relations 5 Faith, Violence and Security 5 Scenarios for the Future 6 Conclusion 7 AP Photo/George Osodi Pilgrims – Special Report – March 2007 - © Pilgrims Group Ltd Pilgrims Special Report Pilgrims Special Report Introduction The Political Climate alleged corruption by the Economic and Financial imposed his chief of staff (Tunde Fashola) as the Crime Commission (EFCC). This is a step that is party’s governorship candidate. Consequently, Nigeria is one of Africa’s most With local, state and national elections in April likely to provoke violence, not necessarily many of the party’s stalwarts, including the important countries, not only because 2007, the political atmosphere in Nigeria is because the Vice-President is popular, but governor’s deputy, Femi Pedro, have decamped because many of the unemployed segments of to other parties, where they have been able to of its staggering population of 140 predictably tense, especially as previous elections in the country have been known to exacerbate the population would see such an action as an get nominations to contest the election against million but also because the country ethno-religious tensions that expose the opportunity to foment trouble. Tinubu’s alleged favourite. There are examples in provides the biggest underdeveloped contradictions in the country’s composition. many other states of people changing political market in the world. There are, however, a number of other reasons Presidential candidate selection issues party after they failed to gain party nominations, to be concerned about the forthcoming election There are several people contesting the and in all cases there are indications that the presidency, but only three appear to be serious elections will be bitterly contested. Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil-producing nation and its possible aftermath. contenders. The first, Alhaji Umar Sheu Yar’Adua, and also possesses one of the world’s largest represents the ruling People’s Democratic Party Electoral Process deposits of natural gas. However, the political First civilian-to-civilian transition in the (PDP) and is presently the governor of Katsina There are also doubts over the extent to which and socio-economic situation in the country country’s history State. He is the younger son of late General Sheu the body responsible for conducting the election, continues to make investors cautious. The Previous transitions have been from military rule Musa Yar’Adua, who was President Obasanjo’s the Independent National Election Commission dynamic pattern of its politics and the fluid to civilian, with the military government having deputy when the latter was the military Head of (INEC), can effectively conduct a free and fair nature of its security make it necessary to the apparatus to suppress any protest that could State. The second is retired Major General election. There are already criticisms about how monitor developments and update strategies to come from disputed election results. During this Mohamadu Buhari, a former Military President, the commission is handling aspects of the suit ever-changing situations. This report first civilian-to-civilian transition the efforts of the representing the All Nigerians People’s Party preparations. In this situation it becomes easy for highlights key issues central to the future of current administration to adjudicate will be under candidates who lose elections to argue that the Nigerian politics and security. considerable scrutiny, and the credibility of its (ANPP), and the third is the Vice President Atiku. response may determine the nature of any crisis. results were rigged to favour opponents. All these individuals have strong support bases Already, police have uncovered ballot boxes Extended term in office across the country and it is generally expected intended for use in election rigging in the private For quite some time it was not certain whether that the elections will be bitterly contested. houses of local politicians. there would be an election at all, as it was There are on-going discussions between the widely believed that the incumbent President Action Congress and the ANPP to collaborate All the above issues are major causes of concern Obasanjo was looking for ways of extending his and produce a single candidate for the for the period immediately before and shortly term of office beyond the constitutional presidential election, but this process has after the election. mandate of two terms. Although his efforts suffered a number of setbacks and the prospects failed and the President confirmed openly that for a successful outcome appear quite slim. he had given up on the idea, there are still those who believe that the plan has not been All three candidates are from the northern area completely abandoned. Sceptics believe that of Nigeria. This seems to be creating subtle some of the actions being taken by the resentment in the country, especially from the government, including the arrest and Ibos in the eastern region. There is ongoing prosecution of those who were alleged to have agitation from this group, many of whom corruptly enriched themselves, are intended to argue they have not been fully reincorporated destabilise the political situation and thus pave into national politics since their attempted the way for the imposition of a state of secession 40 years earlier. The Yorubas from the emergency. Such an outcome would south-west appear not to be in contention for automatically lead to the President prolonging the position, as President Obasanjo is from this his term in office. area and there is an implicit understanding that they cannot produce two national leaders in President Obasanjo and his Vice President, Atiku Abubarkar in Infighting between the President quick succession. happier times before and Vice-President allegations of corruption soured their relationship. There has been open disagreement for months Local political unrest between President Obasanjo and his Vice- Apart from the potential for unrest at national (AP Photo/Saurabh Das) President, Atiku Abubarkar, with the two men level, there are dangerous signals coming from trading insults and allegations of corruption. At all the states, especially Anambra, Oyo and the roots of the problem was the Vice-President’s Lagos. In both Anambra and Oyo states there desire to assume office after President have been unconstitutional impeachments of Obasanjo’s bid to extend his presidency for a state governors, who were only reinstated after third term failed, and the avowed determination court judgements. The situation in Oyo is of the President to prevent this. The Vice- particularly serious, as a political godfather who President later abandoned the ruling party to is against the reinstated governor has threatened join a rival party, the Action Congress (AC), to ensure the victory of his candidate, even if which gave him the presidential ticket. Since the this is against popular will. In Lagos, the fall-out between the two leaders, there have economic capital of the country, the ruling AC been rumours in the country that prior to the party has suffered a major setback because the election the Vice-President could be arrested for incumbent governor, Bola Tinubu, allegedly 2 Pilgrims – Special Report – March 2007 - © Pilgrims Group Ltd Pilgrims – Special Report – March 2007 - © Pilgrims Group Ltd 3 Pilgrims Special Report Pilgrims Special Report Security and Politics in the The Movement for the Emancipation of the The Spread of Conflict Tension and Inter-group Niger Delta (MEND) A further concern is the extension of conflicts Oil Producing Regions Many of the recent security developments in the into regions that have previously remained Relations While there has been conflict over a long period Niger Delta are linked to the activities of MEND. immune from such problems. Since October With a population of 140 million and more than in the oil-producing Niger Delta, the problems MEND was formed around the middle of 2006 2006 conflicts have spread to places like Akwa 250 ethnic identities in Nigeria, managing inter- have increased significantly since the second half and since then has controlled the activities of Ibom state, which was previously considered group relations in the country has always been a of 2005. Indeed, between January and March many of the armed groups in the Niger Delta. relatively peaceful. Although foreign oil workers major challenge. 2006, Nigeria lost over US $1 billion in revenue Of all the groups that have emerged in the last and even indigenous ones are making attempts as a result of the crisis in the region, while the decade, it appears to be the one most resolute to stay safe, the nature of the environment and A development that needs to be watched very country’s oil output has been cut by almost in its determination to attain its objectives by the tasks they perform are such that government closely is the propensity for unexpected incidents 20%. One problem with the Niger Delta is that force. It is also evident from recent clashes with security agents are unable to ensure their security. to ignite inter-group tensions. For instance, the there are several layers of conflict, which are government security forces that the group national census conducted in January 2006 gave sometimes mutually reinforcing but at other cannot be brought down by military means. Diversification of Militant Tactics Kano state (in the northern part of the country) times mutually exclusive.

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