Thesis Culture Wars?

THESIS CULTURE WARS? APPLYING CATEGORICAL VARIATION MEASURES TO THE STUDY OF SOCIOCULTURAL AND POLITICAL POLARIZATION Submitted by Jamie L. Willis Department of Sociology In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the Degree of Master of Arts Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Summer 2017 Master’s Committee: Advisor: Michael G. Lacy Lynn M. Hempel Jeffrey G. Snodgrass Copyright by Jamie Willis 2017 All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT CULTURE WARS? APPLYING CATEGORICAL VARIATION MEASURES TO THE STUDY OF SOCIOCULTURAL AND POLITICAL POLARIZATION Over the last 20 years, an extensive literature has examined the “culture wars,” or increasing socio-cultural and political polarization within the United States. A major focus of the debate has been whether attitude polarization within the public has increased over that time. While the diversity of perspective and methods within this literature makes understanding their conflict difficult, in general, this debate has centered around differences in the definition and measurement of polarization, consensus, and dissensus. Several researchers have attempted to clarify the divide within the literature, but with insufficient attention to the role of methodological differences. Therefore, the first contribution of this paper is to analyze this literature so as to clearly separate out the distinct and interesting aspects of mass polarization. Beyond that conceptual contribution, the empirical focus of the current work is to illustrate the use of three statistical measures designed specifically to study attitude variation or polarization, which have not previously been used within this literature. These measures, the Index of Qualitative Variation, the RQ Index, and the Index of Ordinal Variation, each offer a unique approach to the measurement of dispersion or polarization in a categorical variable, and thus offer new ways to examine whether the United States has experienced increasing sociocultural and political polarization within the public. Each of these measures are designed to examine variation in categorical data, which has not been treated as such in the literature. Within this paper, these measures are applied to 120 variables drawn from the American National ii Election Studies and the General Social Survey over the last 40 to 50 years to examine changes in dispersion or polarization over time. These findings are used to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of these measures for capturing increasing social and cultural fragmentation within the public, and to compare the findings of these measures to those of the interval level measures used within this literature. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, and most importantly, I would like to thank my husband, Andy Willis, who has continuously pushed me to follow my passions. His love and support have been endless, and I couldn’t have done this without him. I would also like to express my sincerest gratitude to Dr. Michael G. Lacy for devoting countless hours to this project. Few professors are willing to spend the amount of time and energy he gives to his students, and his generosity is greatly appreciated. I would also like to thank my other thesis committee members. Many thanks to Dr. Lynn Hempel for continued encouragement in all aspects of my academic career, and to both Drs. Hempel and Jeffrey Snodgrass for their time and feedback on this project. Additionally, much appreciation to Dr. Tim Knapp, for the numerous opportunities for academic growth he provided during my undergraduate education, and for encouraging me to pursue a graduate degree. To my graduate cohort, Becca Eman, Rebecca Shisler, Evan Batty, Lucy Carter, Scott Kaiser, Jason Pohl, (and Amber Kizewski), you quickly became family, and you will always have a special place in my heart. To Dr. Eileen Connell and Sara Gill, my personal sounding boards, thank you for always listening, and for making me feel appreciated. To my family, thank you for teaching me to love the pursuit of knowledge, and for always reminding me that I can do anything. Thank you to my mother, Peggy Smith, for showing me from a young age that a woman can be both a devoted mother, and successful in her career. To my sister, Kari Smith, for reminding me to make time for fun, and for making me laugh until I cry. And to my father, Doane Smith, for being my biggest fan, and for repeatedly lending an uncritical ear when I need to think out loud. I would also like to thank Jane Wand, and the entire Willis and Wand families for their continued encouragement and support. Last, but not least, I iv am incredibly thankful for the wonderful women in my life that continually remind me of my worth, Robin Foster, Helen Williams, Hailey Fender, and Kirsten Whitehead. Thank you for always cheering me on, and for making me feel confident, powerful, and loved. You have raised my spirits countless times when the possible has felt impossible, and I am forever grateful for your friendship. v DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my greatest contribution to this world, my daughter, Evynne Grace. Thank you for seeing only the best in me, and for being a constant reminder of what is truly most important. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... …… ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT………………………………………………………………………. iv DEDICATION………………………………………………………………………………...... vi LIST OF TABLES………………...…………………………………………………………... viii LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………………. xiii Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………......... 1 Chapter 1: Literature Review……………………….……………………………………………. 4 “Culture Wars”………………………………………………………………………….. 4 Polarization vs. Party Sorting………………………………………………................... 7 Measures of Dispersion …………………………………………………………………. 9 Measures of Bimodality ………………………………………………………………... 12 Measures of Correlation/Association …………………………………………………...15 X-Y correlation …………………………………………………………………………. 15 Y-Y correlation …………………………………………………………………………. 23 Conclusion …………………………….………………………………………………... 25 Chapter 2: Methods……………………………………………………………………………... 28 Indices of Qualitative Variation ………………………………………………………... 28 RQ Index …………………………………………………………………………….…. 32 Index of Ordinal Variation ……………………………………………………………... 34 Comparison of all three measures: IQV, RQ Index, and IOV …………………………. 40 Possible application of these measures to the “Culture War” literature ……………… 41 Statistical Inference for the IQV, RQ Index, and IOV………………………………….. 45 Chapter 3: Results………………………………………………………………………………. 50 Family and Cultural Values…………………………………………………………….. 51 “Legitimate sexuality” or views on homosexuality…………………………………….. 53 Abortion views………………………………………………………………………….. 57 Views of gender roles…….……………………………………………………………... 58 Discussion of Views on Family and Cultural Values…………………………………… 60 vii Views on Appropriate Role of Government…………………………………………….. 63 Discussion of Views on Appropriate Role of Government……………………………… 66 Political Party Affiliation, Political Ideology, Presidential Approval, and Political Values................................................................................................................................ 69 Political ideology……………………………………………………………………….. 72 Discussion of Party Affiliation and Political Ideology…………………………………. 74 Political values………………………………………………………………………….. 75 Presidential approval……………………………………………………………………. 77 Discussion for Polarization of Presidential Approval………………………………….. 78 Other Items of Interest………………………………………………………………….. 79 Results Summary Discussion…………………………………………………………… 82 Polarization: Are Measures of Dispersion and Bimodality Enough?.............................. 85 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………... 87 References………………………………………………………………………………………. 91 Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………... 98 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1. Frequencies and proportions of six hypothetical distributions with IQV score…………………………………………………………………………………….………. 30 Table 2.2. Frequencies and proportions of 3 varying distributions with identical IQV scores……………………………………………………………………………….……… 31 Table 2.3. Frequencies and proportions of six hypothetical distributions with their corresponding RQ Index scores………………………………………………………………… 33 Table 2.4. Frequencies and cumulative frequencies of six hypothetical distributions and their IOV scores …………………………………………………………………………… 36 Table 2.5. Comparison of RQ Index and IOV scores for 3 hypothetical distributions…………. 37 Table 2.6. A comparison of IQV, RQ Index, and IOV scores across 3 hypothetical frequency distributions with proportions………………………………………………….……. 38 Table 2.7. Four hypothetical frequency distributions with IQV, RQ Index, and IOV Scores and percent change between distributions…………………………………………. 40 Table 2.8. Frequencies and Proportions for Party Affiliation Variation using the RQ Index and IOV………………………………………………………………………………. 44 Table 2.9. Frequencies and Proportions for Party Affiliation Variation using the RQ Index and IOV with more extreme responses………………………………………………. 45 Table 2.10. Standard Error and Confidence Interval Formulas for the IQV, RQ Index, and IOV…………………………………………………………………………………………. 47 Table 2.11. Four hypothetical proportion distributions with IQV, RQ Index, IOV, and 95% confidence intervals for difference between distributions, N=1000……………..…… 48 Table 3.1. Family and Cultural Values Items Examined……………………………………….. 52 Table 3.2. Percentage Distribution and Polarization/Dispersion Indices for Views on Anti- Discrimination Laws

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