security and human rights 27 (2016) 315-325 brill.com/shrs The Ukraine-Russia Conflict: A Way Forward Matthew Rojansky Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, d.c.
[email protected] Abstract The United States has a vital interest in the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and the resolution of its conflict with Russia, which are key to de-escalating growing ten- sion across the wider European and Euro-Atlantic space. Yet the conflict in Ukraine’s East has settled into a largely recognisable pattern: a new and very large “frozen con- flict,” increasingly reminiscent of that in Moldova, Georgia and Armenia/Azerbaijan, where intense fighting at the time of the Soviet Union’s collapse was reduced by de facto cease-fires, but no effective long-term conflict-settlement mechanism was found. Washington should seek agreement from all parties to engage more directly in an osce-mediated process to stem the ongoing damage to European security, the deep- ening human and economic costs, and the threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty. Keywords Ukraine – conflict-settlement – sovereignty – security – osce On November 14, 2016, the International Criminal Court issued a preliminary finding endorsing Ukraine’s claims that Russia had committed acts of aggres- sion against its territory, citizens and infrastructure.1 Ukrainians, who for more * A version of this article was originally published by The National Interest, February 2017. ** Matthew Rojansky is an expert on u.s. relations with the states of the former Soviet Union, especially Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, he has advised governments, intergovern- mental organizations, and major private actors on conflict resolution and efforts to enhance shared security throughout the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian region.