The Democratic Dividend of Nonviolent Resistance
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“How one fights determines what one wins” ̶ (Non)violent resistance in revolutionary situations and its prospects for sustainable democratization Von der Fakultät für Gesellschaftswissenschaften der Universität Duisburg-Essen zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Dr. phil. genehmigte Dissertation von Bayer, Markus aus Frankfurt am Main 1. Gutachter: PD Dr. Lambach, Daniel 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Hartmann, Christof Tag der Disputation: 18.08.2020 Table of content Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................... 4 List of tables and figures.......................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgement ................................................................................................................................... 6 Preface: The purpose of this synopsis ..................................................................................................... 9 1.) Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 10 2.) Overall research question......................................................................................................... 15 3.) Research design ........................................................................................................................ 17 4.) Resistance and revolutionary situations: The question of (non)violence ........................................ 26 4.1.) Revolution and violence: An inseparable duo? ......................................................................... 26 4.2.) Revolutionary situations ........................................................................................................... 33 4.3.) Why events matter: Critical junctures and path dependency .................................................. 37 5.) Nonviolent resistance: A “dangerous idea” whose “time has come”? ............................................ 40 5.1.) The many names of nonviolence .............................................................................................. 42 5.1.1.) Pacifism: Nonviolent opposition against war ..................................................................... 43 5.1.2.) Civil disobedience: Moral philosophy of Henry Thoreau ................................................... 44 5.1.3.) Satyagraha: Gandhi’s approach to nonviolence ................................................................ 45 5.1.4.) NVR as “strategy for imperfect people in an imperfect world”: The strategic approach .. 47 5.1.5.) Defining the X: A working definition of NVR ...................................................................... 50 5.2.) How NVR is assumed to work ................................................................................................... 53 5.2.1.) Mechanism of change ........................................................................................................ 53 5.2.2.) NVR and democracy ........................................................................................................... 60 5.2.3. Discourse on NVR and urban space ..................................................................................... 62 6.) NVR and democratic endurance: The democratic dividend of nonviolent resistance .................... 65 7.) The democratizing effect of nonviolent resistance .......................................................................... 68 8.) How violent resistance hinders democratic development .............................................................. 71 8.1.) Avoiding unequal citizenship .................................................................................................... 72 8.2.) Avoiding one-party dominance ................................................................................................. 75 9.) On consolidation .............................................................................................................................. 80 10.) Discussion ....................................................................................................................................... 82 12.) Literature ........................................................................................................................................ 89 12.) Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 103 12.1.) Overview: Publications within the dissertation .................................................................... 103 12.2.) Paper I: Bayer, Markus (2018 b): Hacia la consolidación: La lucha no violenta como medio para la ciudadanía democrática, Relaciones Internacionales, 39, 37-58. .............................. 104 2 12.3.) English Translation of Paper I: Bayer, Markus (2018 b): On consolidation: Nonviolent struggle as resource for democratic citizenship, Relaciones Internacionales, 39, 37-58. ................... 129 12.4.) Paper II: Bayer, Markus (2018 a): The democratizing effect of nonviolent resistance. How nonviolent resistance featured democratic consolidation in Benin, Swisspeace Working Paper, 3/2018. ........................................................................................................................ 155 12.5.) Paper III: Bayer, Markus (2017): Swapo forever? Prospect for liberal democracy or prolonged one-party dominance in Namibia, Journal of Namibia Studies, 21, 27-54. ............................ 178 12.6.) Paper IV: Bayer, Markus and Andrea Pabst (2018): Heroes and victims: The economies of entitlement after violent past, Peacebuilding, 6 (1), 49-64. .................................................. 208 12.7.) Paper V: Bayer, Markus; Bethke, Felix S. and Daniel Lambach (2016): The democratic dividend of nonviolent resistance, Journal for Peace Research, 53(6), 758–771. ................. 233 12.8.) Paper VI: Bayer, Markus and Jante Kursawe (2016): Gewaltfreier Widerstand und urbaner Raum, Wissenschaft und Frieden, 34 (2), 29-32. ................................................................... 241 12.9.) Avowals of the Co-Authors ................................................................................................... 249 3 Abbreviations ANC African National Congress BTI Bertelsmann Transformation Index CSO Civil Society Organization DAD Democracy/Autocracy Dataset INC Indian National Congress LNA Large N-Analysis MENA Middle East and North Africa MoR Mode of Resistance NAVCO Nonviolent and Violent Conflict Outcome Dataset NLM National Liberation Movement NoR No Resistance NVR Nonviolent Resistance PLAN People’s Liberation Army of Namibia SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation SNA Small N-Analysis SWAPO South West People’s Organization USAID United States Agency for International Development VR Violent Resistance 4 List of tables and figures1 Table I: Forms of nonviolence and their differences p. 50 Figure I: Success rates of NVR and VR campaigns 1940-2006 p. 13 Figure II: Empirical narratives and black box mechanism p. 18 Figure III: Overall research question p. 18 Figure IV: Research question “The democratic dividend” p. 19 Figure V: Research question “The democratizing effect of nonviolent resistance” p. 21 Figure VI: Disaggregation of quality of democracy p. 22 Figure VII: Research question “SWAPO forever” and “Heroes and victims” p. 23 Figure VIII: Revolutionary situations and possible outcomes p. 35 Figure IX: Violent and nonviolent resistance movements p. 42 Figure X: Conversion, accommodation, coercion, and political change p. 54 Figure XI: How conversion works p. 57 Figure XII: How coercion works p. 60 Figure XIII: Modes of resistance and democratic endurance p. 66 1 Please use the hyperlinks to skip directly to the respective table or figure. 5 Acknowledgement Writing a cumulative dissertation offers the advantage to be able to widen the view and investigate a topic from different angles instead of focusing on a narrow part. For a cluttered mind like mine, finding nearly everything interesting, this is a huge advantage. However, an even bigger advantage is that a cumulative dissertation officially allows collaboration. This means that one is able to share his or her ideas, to convince others and to work with and learn from them. I had the luck and the pleasure to meet some brilliant and supportive people who believed in my ideas and had plenty to offer to advance them. I am therefore in the enviable situation to have the “obligation” to thank all of them: First of all, I would like to thank my parents Heinz and Rosi who taught me to question things and always supported me. Furthermore, I want to thank Andrea: not only for reading, commenting and enhancing nearly all my articles, but also for cheering me up when I wanted to give up and even daring the adventure of writing together with me. Moreover, I want to thank Dr Daniel Lambach for his supervision and constant support, but primarily for believing in me and my proposal and developing the Project on “Nonviolent Resistance and Democratic Consolidation”. Furthermore, I want to thank my second supervisor Prof. Dr Christof Hartmann who was an invaluable advisor on field research in Africa and who always impresses me with his wide and deep knowledge about African politics. In the same way I am much obliged to many colleagues I worked and shared office with.