POLITICIAN POSSE COME DOWN! Democracy Caribbean Style The Nassau Guardian, March 31-April 5, 2008 By Ian Gregory Strachan In the aftermath of our own hard fought, and some might even say “tribal” general elections, it is interesting to note that two of our more senior Caribbean neighbours had their own election dramas in 2007. Jamaica, Trinidad and The Bahamas, all held general elections in ’07, with only one incumbent Prime Minister being returned to office: Patrick Manning of Trinidad. Manning benefited considerably from the fact that it was a three way race on November 5. In Jamaica, the 18 year dominance of the People’s National Party came to an end on September 3rd and a prodigal son rose to power in the person of Bruce Golding. (Earlier this year in Barbados incumbent Owen Arthur was also bounced, but that’s a story for another day.) What have we Bahamians shared with our southern cousins, JA and Trini in terms of our electoral processes, in terms of the maneouvers of those seeking to acquire or hold on to power and in terms of the efforts of civil society to foster more reasoned debate about issues of national policy? Clearly, to stay on top of the tiger that is Caribbean party politics it pays to be a senior man and have years and years of experience. Manning, Ingraham and Golding are all in their 60s and were first elected 30 years ago. But are we in The Bahamas more evolved in terms of the way we manage the race to power or are we behind? What about regime change? Are Trinidadians and Jamaicans more optimistic about the ability of their elected leaders to fulfill their promises or more sceptical than we are? The answers may surprise you. The Great Debate “The People’s National Party has been in power for the last 18 and half years . During that period, with the exception of the first two years, Jamaica has never achieved as much as 3% growth in any one year. Over that period we have accumulated 460,000 persons who either can’t find work or have given up trying to find work. During that period we have accumulated a debt that is now costing the people of Jamaica 550 million [Jamaican dollars] every single day to service. More than we spend on Health, Education, Security and all the other Government services combined. “Over that period we have seen the murder rate climb from 413 in 1988 to as much as 1,500. And during that period we have seen our schools continue to graduate young men and young women barely able to read and write . [They are] unemployable. Jamaica cannot continue to operate like this. We can do better than this. There are many countries that don’t have our resources that are doing better than this. And therefore, we have outlined a framework of policies that are designed to move Jamaica out of this slump.” These were the opening statements of Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) Leader Bruce Golding, who delivered them to the Jamaican nation during a live debate between himself and Prime Minister Portia Simpson- Miller of the People’s National Party (PNP) hosted by the Jamaica Debates Commission. Golding’s words sounded the death-knell for the PNP’s 18-year rule, of which Simpson-Miller had only been leader for one and half years. Golding outperformed Simpson-Miller in the debate and presented himself as an attractive alternative to the status quo in his country. He promised foreign investment, jobs and good governance. Simpson-Miller, who often calls herself the people’s “Mama,” was the first woman to be Prime Minister of Jamaica and only the third female in the Caribbean to hold such an office. She replaced P. J. Patterson as PNP leader and hence became PM in March of 2006. (As is the case in the Bahamian constitution, no general election was required to effect this change in leadership.) During the debate she described herself as a caring and compassionate leader. She encouraged voters to stay the course, emphasizing that the needs of the working class were her primary concern. Unfortunately, her delivery during the debate was stiff and plodding, as it seems she is far more comfortable on the rally platform than in an election debate format. In her opening statement on that August 14th evening, her primary boasts were about the PNP providing light and water to many Jamaicans. This is not insignificant when one considers that over 40% of Jamaican homes are without running water or electricity, but it was an old ploy from the Caribbean political repertoire to ask the public to be grateful when a government delivers essential services after decades of neglect. “We implemented programs,” she began, “that while balancing the books I balanced people’s lives. $600 million on rural electrification, to impact the lives of 20,000 Jamaicans, potable water, impacting the lives of 162,000 Jamaicans.” She also reminded the public that her government offered free healthcare to children. “When I introduced free healthcare for children 18 and under it became an issue. This is a leader that cares about her people. And if Mama is in charge, she must take care of her children. Don’t just listen to the negative voices that are saying we have achieved nothing. We have achieved much but there are plenty more things out there to do.” On August 24th, 2007 The Jamaica Gleaner cited a Bill Johnson poll pointing to, “an overwhelming 45 per cent of persons who did not exercise their franchise in 2002 [that] now [said] the debate outcome [had] influenced them to vote for the Bruce Golding-led JLP. This compares to a mere 22 per cent of this group who [were] attracted to the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP.” Despite Golding’s success during the debate, the JLP appeared to have won by the narrowest of margins on the evening of September 3rd. The JLP received 405, 215 votes to the PNP’s 402, 275. The first official count gave the JLP 31 seats to the PNP’s 29. After the initial results Simpson-Miller refused to concede defeat (a move remiscent of our own Perry Christie’s reluctance on May 2nd, 2007). Simpson-Miller declared the election too close to call. As The Gleaner explained on September 5, “Mrs. Simpson Miller [came] in for bitter criticism from some quarters after declaring Monday night that her party would not immediately concede defeat, claiming there were incidents of voter intimidation and criminality that led to the preliminary results.” The following evening however, when a recount revealed that the JLP had 32 not 31 seats, she conceded. After yet more recounting the Election Office of Jamaica declared that the JLP actually won 33 to the PNP’s 27. Orette Bruce Golding was finally sworn in as Jamaica’s eighth Prime Minister on the less than auspicious day of September 11, 2007. Some observers believe that Simpson-Miller’s chances of being returned were also hurt by her handling of Hurricane Dean, which blasted the island on August 19, left three dead, damaged thousands of homes, wiped out power for weeks in some areas and caused the election to be moved from August 27th to September 3rd. According to an Associated Press story on September 2nd, Simpson-Miller was criticized for “waiting too long after the storm to address the nation about the damage and the rescheduling of the Aug. 27th election, and over the timing and manner of aid distribution to storm victims.” A Bill Johnson poll a day before Hurricane Dean showed Simpson-Miller’s PNP running neck and neck with Golding’s JLP at 40 percent. After the hurricane, Johnson’s poll put the JLP at 42 and the PNP at 38 percent of popular support. But Hurricane Dean notwithstanding, the debates were a decisive blow for Golding. Altogether, three debates were organized by the Jamaica Debates Commission; only the last of these was with the party leaders. The Debates Commission came into existence in 2002 through a partnerhsip between the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce and the Jamaican Media Association, prior to general elections that year. The 2007 election was the second time the Commission has organised political debates for television and radio. The Commission’s stated mission is “to assist in the strengthening and growth of the local democratic process by staging national political debates which will encourage persons to identify and focus on the issues of importance that will assist them in making their voting decisions.” No such entity exists in The Bahamas but media houses and concerned members of civil society have been trying for years to get political leaders to agree to live debates in the run-up to elections. Charles Carter made history when he hosted a live debate in 2002 between his former PLP Cabinet-mate, Perry Christie and FNM “leader” Tommy Turnquest on Island 102.9FM. (Of course, he did the established parties a favor by ignoring CDR Leader B. J. Nottage and BDM Leader Cassius Stuart—an example of how media can protect the status quo). 2007 was a step back. The Free National Movement’s attitude toward the media in the weeks prior to the 2007 Election was particularly telling: neither FNM Leader Ingraham nor Deputy Leader Brent Symmonette held a a single interview with the media until they had won the government. Another important fact to note is that Jamaican voters have had the benefit of public opinion polls since the early 1970s when political analyst Carl Stone at the University of the West Indies began what became known as the Stone Polls.