Big Game, Small Town Clientelism and Democracy in the Modern Politics of Belize (1954 to 2011)
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Big Game, Small Town Clientelism and Democracy in the Modern Politics of Belize (1954 to 2011) Dylan Gregory Vernon A thesis submitted to University College London in candidacy for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Caribbean and Latin American Politics from the Institute of the Americas, University College London 2013 Declaration I, Dylan Gregory Vernon, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in my thesis. Dylan Gregory Vernon 2 Abstract Presenting Belize as an illustrative and critical case of clientelist democracy in the Commonwealth Caribbean, this thesis explores the origins of clientelist politics alongside the pre-independence birth of political parties, analyses its rapid expansion after independence in 1981 and assesses its implications for democratic governance. Based on qualitative research, including interviews with major political leaders, the thesis contends that, despite Belize’s positive post- colonial reputation for consolidating formal democracy, the concurrent expansion of clientelism, as both an electoral strategy and a mode of participation, ranks high among the worrying challenges affecting the quality of its democracy. Although intense party competition in a context of persistent poverty is central to explaining the trajectory of clientelism in Belize, the Westminster model of governance, the disappearance of substantive policy distinctions among parties and the embrace of neoliberal economic policies fuelled its expansion. Small- state size and multi-ethnicity have also been contributing factors. Even though the thousands of monthly dyadic transactions in constituencies are largely rational individual choices with short-term distributive benefits, the thesis concludes that, collectively, these practices lead to irrational governance behaviour and damaging macro-political consequences. Political participation is devalued, public resources are wasted, governance reform becomes more difficult and political corruption is facilitated. As a parallel informal welfare system has become embedded, politicians and citizens alike have become trapped in a ‘big game’ of mutual clientelist dependency. A comparative analysis of post-independence political developments in other Commonwealth Caribbean states shows that the expansion of political clientelism in the context of competitive party politics is significantly path dependent. Besides contributing to the political historiography of modern Belize, this thesis demonstrates that national studies of small clientelist democracies can provide valuable insights into the ways in which informal political practices interact with a state’s formal institutions to shape the quality of democracy itself. 3 Contents Abstract 3 List of Tables and Figures 6 List of Key Acronyms and Abbreviations 7 Preface and Acknowledgements 9 Introduction Conceptualising Political Clientelism for a Case Study of Belize Revisiting Clientelism and Democracy in a Commonwealth Caribbean State 12 Political Clientelism and Democracy: Concepts, Variables and Implications 19 Analytical Approach and Research Methodology 44 Chapter 1 Planting the Seeds of Modern Political Clientelism: 1954 to circa 1991 Introduction 58 The Pre-Independence Political Context 59 An ‘Innocent’ Phase of Political Clientelism: 1954 to1980 66 A Bridging Decade: 1981 to circa 1991 86 Conclusion 96 Chapter 2 The Rampant Phase of Clientelist Politics: circa 1992 to 2011 Introduction 99 Evidence of Expanding Political Clientelism 100 Deconstructing Clientelist Operations Thirty Years on 112 Conclusion 137 Chapter 3 Explaining the Rise of Political Clientelism: The 1990s to 2011 Introduction 141 The Relevance of Political Developments 142 The Relevance of Social and Economic Developments 159 Conclusion 176 Chapter 4 Belizean Democracy in an Era of Entrenched Clientelism Introduction 180 Implications of Clientelism for the Institutions and Processes of Formal Democracy 181 Implications for Alternative Modes of Political Participation 197 Consequences for Social Democracy 209 Conclusion 233 4 Contents cont’d Conclusion Belize as a Clientelist Democracy: Findings, Comparisons and Prospects for Change Introduction: New Bottle, Old Wine 237 Clientelist Democracy in Belize: A Synopsis of Findings 239 Belize’s Experience in Commonwealth Caribbean Comparative Perspective 248 Lessons, Contributions and Prospects for Change 274 Bibliography Books, Articles and Reports 283 Newspapers and Other Media 303 Letters from the George Price Archival Collection 307 Other Archival Documents 308 Key Political Events Observed 308 Personal Interviews and Communications 308 Appendices Appendix 1: Brief Description of the Four Constituencies Selected for Focused Research 316 Appendix 2: Indicative Questions for Elite Interviewees 319 Appendix 3: Copy of Informed Consent Form used for Elite Interviewees 322 Appendix 4: Indicative Questions for Citizen Interviewees 323 Appendix 5: Illustrative Examples of News Stories on Political Clientelism: 1991-2011 324 Appendix 6: Sample Election Poster, circa December 2011 326 5 List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 1: Tracer Markers to Track Changes in Clientelism between 1980/1981 and 2011 48 Table 2: Basic Profile of the Four Constituencies Selected for Focused Research by Selection Criteria (at July 2010) 53 Table 3: Categorisation of Goods and Services Provided by Politicians, circa 2011 125 Table 4: Key Types of Support Given or Promised to Politicians, circa 2011 128 Table 5: Comparative Status of Political Clientelism in 1980/1981 and in 2011 138 Table 6: Belize Population Breakdown by Ethnicity, 1980-2010 by Percentages of Population Share. 143 Table 7: Post-Independence General Election Results, 1984–2012 by Winning Party, Vote Share (%) Seat Share and Voter Turnout (%) 150 Figures Figure 1: Political Map of Belize Showing Six Administrative Districts 8 Figure 2: Influence and Resource Flows among Political Actors 45 Figure 3: Electoral Map of Belize by Political Party Holding Each 52 Constituency in 2008 6 List of Key Acronyms and Abbreviations ACB Association of Concerned Belizeans ANDA Association of National Development Agencies BELTRAIDE Belize Trade and Investment Development Service BNA Belize National Archives BNHL Belize National Heritage Library BNCR Belize National Court Registry BPA Belize Parliamentary Archives CARICOM Caribbean Community CEO Chief Executive Officer (formerly Permanent Secretary) CPA Country Poverty Assessment CPI Corruption Perception Index CSO Civil Society Organisation CCT Conditional Cash Transfer EBC Elections and Boundaries Commission EBD Elections and Boundaries Department FPTP First-past-the-post FY Financial Year GC Gini coefficient GNI Gross National Income GoB Government of Belize GPAC George Price Archival Collection GWU General Workers Union HDI Human Development Index HSD Human Services Department House House of Representatives IMF International Monetary Fund Katalyst Katalyst Institute for Public Policy and Research MDG Millennium Development Goals MP Member of Parliament NABR National Alliance for Belizean Rights NCP Non-Contributory Pension NIP National Independence Party OAS Organisation of American States PNP People’s National Party PRC Political Reform Commission PSC Public Services Commission PUP People’s United Party SHIE Samuel Haynes Institute of Excellence SIB Statistical Institute of Belize SPEAR Society for the Promotion of Education and Research TI Transparency International UB University of Belize UDP United Democratic Party UNDP United Nations Development Programme VIP Vision Inspired by the People WGI Worldwide Governance Indicators 7 FIGURE 1 Political Map of Belize Showing Six Administrative Districts Source: http: //www.ezilon.com/maps/north-america/belize-maps.html 8 Preface and Acknowledgements My decision to do a PhD on the subject of political clientelism has its roots in the stimulating years I worked as a governance reform advocate in Belize between 1992 and 2009. This work included coordinating a democracy reform advocacy campaign, chairing a national political reform commission, penning numerous governance-related documents and participating in almost every governance improvement committee set up during this period. By 2005, it had become frustratingly clear that these reform efforts were having negligible impact on the post-independence trend of democratic decay. In fact, the governance situation had mostly deteriorated. Many of the dozens of recommendations made by various reform commissions had been ignored, and those enacted did not seem to make much difference. It was, in the lyrics of that Sting song, ‘heavy clouds but no rain’. In hindsight, part of the problem was that the reform campaigns had focused on constitutional and procedural matters—relegating the few concrete results to largely ineffectual ‘paper reforms’ of formal democracy. One critical example of this limitation crystallised for me in the days leading up to the 2008 national election. It was sobering to watch television footage of hundreds of people swarming around constituency offices of incumbent politicians for a share of the ‘Venezuela money’.1 Several persons publicly stated that they would vote for the incumbent party only if they got ‘some’. The reform campaigns and commissions had glossed over a huge part of the ‘real’ politics, through which many citizens and politicians engage each other. It became a critical part of my reflections on