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From Left-Wing Liberation Army Into a Government: the Challenges of Transition and the Case of Tplf/Eprdf

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From Left-Wing Liberation Army Into a Government: the Challenges of Transition and the Case of Tplf/Eprdf FROM LEFT-WING LIBERATION ARMY INTO A GOVERNMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF TRANSITION AND THE CASE OF TPLF/EPRDF By Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe MPA: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), 2005 MBA: Open University of London, 2003 BA: Amsterdam School of Business, 2002 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSHOPHY In the school of Public Administration @Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe, 2018 University of Victoria All rights reserved. This dissertation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without the permission of the author. FROM LEFT-WING LIBERATION ARMY INTO A GOVERNMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF TRANSITION AND THE CASE OF TPLF/EPRDF By Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe MPA: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), 2005 MBA: Open University of London, 2003 BA: Amsterdam School of Business, 2002 Supervisory Committee: Dr. Evert Lindquist, Supervisor School of Public Administration, University of Victoria Dr. Thea Vakil, Department Member School of Public Administration, University of Victoria Dr. Marlea Clarke, Outside Member Department of Political Science, University of Victoria Dr. Martin Bunton, Outside Member Department of History, University of Victoria Dr. Alex de Waal, Additional Member The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University ii Abstract The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is a reform rebellion that came to power in 1991 and continues to rule with varying level of success in accordance to its promises. This dissertation attempts to provide a full account of the evolution of the EPRDF government and challenges to its promised state building project, and seeks to explore the extent to which its early guiding philosophy and leadership evolved and shaped its transition to and performance as a government. Understanding current gaps and limitations of the EPRDF in government and the key drivers for those is not possible without a comprehensive understanding of the genesis of the organization, its model of leadership and its institutional values. Unfortunately, very few and incomplete accounts of the liberation war are now available in writing as a result of the difficulties of the war environment. Accounts of the critical moments and decisions that shaped the internal institutional values and norms of the organization are mostly available in the memories of individual leaders who by now are at their retirement age and some are already passing away without writing their memoirs. In researching and writing this dissertation, I brought a special perspective to bear as an author: I was a veteran of the armed struggle, a member of its leadership team during the revolutionary war, and played a role during the transitional government and its critical initial years in government. My role in the struggle is the strength and the limitation of this study. The findings of the study show that it some of the critical success factors in the civil war have much to do with the EPRDF early organization and leadership philosophy that guided the movement through the different phases of its organizational growth, leading to maturity and eventual development into the governing political party. Understanding its wartime values and strategies helps understand not only the drivers for its successes in government but also its limitations. The research examines the critical factors for the success of the rebellion in comparison to various contending rebellions that failed. It also chronicles the evolution of the EPRDF into a party that leads a government, its achievements and limitations. It also illustrates how the behavior of the organization and its model of leadership evolved in government. The evolution of the leadership is chronicled along the different phases of in war and in government. Analyzing the economic and political model of the organization is not the focus of the research and will only be covered as much as it helped understand the leadership model, which the researcher considered to be at the center of its successes and limitations. iii The research places the EPRDF rebellion and government in a comparative theoretical context of African rebellions, civil wars, and transitions to democracy. It argues that the EPRDF represents an important and under-recognized case that demands a revision to the dominant paradigms on African liberation movements and their transition into government. The EPRDF case shows the limitation of the taxonomy of reform rebellions as it overlooks critical variations that shaped its internal behavior. The impact of its particular organizing philosophy of restructuring the Ethiopian state and its leadership culture of theorizing in particular played an important role in shaping its internal behavior. The study also highlights the limitation of the literature in understanding the ‘stateness’ of violent non-state actors and its impacts in their transition to a ruling party. The ERPDF’s high level of ‘stateness’ has contributed significantly to its transition from leading a war into leading a government. iv Table of Contents Supervisory committee ii Abstract iii Table of Contents v List of Tables vii List of Maps viii List of Acronyms ix Acknowledgment xii Dedication xv Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Part I: Historical Background, Literature Review, and Methodology 13 Chapter 2: An overview of Ethiopian History Leading to the 1974 Revolution 14 Chapter 3: Literature review on African Liberation Movements 38 Chapter 4: Towards an Analytic Framework: A Review of Literature on Democracy, Democratic Transitions, Organizations, and Leadership 51 Chapter 5: Research Methodology and Design 74 Part II: Founding of the TPLF and Early Developments (1975-1985) 82 Chapter 6: The Founding of the TPLF and its survival stage 83 Chapter 7: Liberated Area governance, Competition with Rival Rebellions 106 Chapter 8: Consolidation and Later Challenges 124 Part III: Advanced Stage of the Rebellion (1985-1991) 149 Chapter 9: MLLT, Subsequent Changes, and the Total Liberation of Tigrai 150 Chapter 10: EPRDF formation, Preparing for Government, Final offensive 172 v Part IV: The EPRDF in Power (1991-2012) 188 Chapter 11: Transition from War to Peace 189 Chapter 12: Democratic Transition & implications to EPRDF's behavior 205 Chapter 13: The Ethio-Eritrean War and EPRDF's internal crisis 224 Chapter 14: The 'Renewal Movement' and the Revolution at cross-roads 242 Part V: Discussion and Conclusion 267 Chapter 15: Discussion and Analysis 268 Chapter 16: Conclusion: Implications for Governance and Research 296 Annexes 305 References 314 vi List of Tables Table I: Boundary sections delimited at the time of Emperor Minelik…………………………….19 Table II: The three theses defining the imperial state building project in Ethiopian student movement……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………31 Table III: The four main approaches to organizational environments……………………………61 Table IV: Summary of the characteristics of the three domain of approaches to leadership…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...67 Table V: List of Critical challenges and responses of the ERPDF…………………………………….278 Table VI: Lost of major strategic decisions taken at strategic moments…………………………279 vii List of Maps Map I: Administrative map of the Tigrai region in 1974………………………………………………..35 Map II: Presence of regime security forces in the region at the beginning of the TPLF rebellion……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………101 Map III: Governments’ military deployment during its third military offensive in June of the year 1978…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..102 Map IV: TPLF’s administrative regional boundary in 1989……………………………………………145 viii List of Acronyms AESP: All Ethiopian Socialist Party ALF: Afar Liberation Front ANDM: Amhara National Democratic Movement APDUO: Alaba People's Democratic Unity Organization BPDO: Basketo People's Democratic Organization BPDO: Burgi People's Democratic Organization BPLM: Benishangul Peoples Liberation Movement BPRDM: Bench People's Revolutionary Dem. Movement BPUDM: Burgi People's United Democratic Movement CC: Central Committee COC: Constitutional Commission CODEF: Coalition of Ethiopian Democratic Forces COR: Council of Representatives CUD: Coalition for Unity and Democracy DDKDO: Denta, Debamo, Kitchenchla Democratic Organization DPDO: Derashe People's Democratic Organization DPDO: Donga People's Democratic Organization DPRDO: Dawero People's Revolutionary Democratic Organization DSPSC: Defense and Security Policy Standing Committee EDORM: Ethiopian Democratic Officers’ Revolutionary Movement EDP: Ethiopian Democratic Party EDU: Ethiopian Democratic Union EDU: Ethiopian Democratic Union EGMC: Ethiopian Grain Marketing Corporation ELF: Eritrean Liberation Front ENDO: Ethiopian National Democratic Organization ix EPDA: Ethiopian People’s Democratic Association EPDM: Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement EPLF: Eritrean People’s Liberation Front EPRA: Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Army EPRP: Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party ERO: Ethiopian Relief Organization FDRE: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia HPDO: Hadiya People's Democratic Organization IMF: International Monetary Fund KNDO: Kebena Nationality Democratic Organization KNUDO: Kore Nationality Unity Democratic Organization KPDO: Kembata People's Democratic Organization KPDO: Konso People's Democratic Organization MC: Military Council MCC: Military Coordinating Committee MLLT: Marxist Leninist League of Tigrai MPDO: Mareko People's Democratic Organization NEBE:
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