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Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents

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Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents ETHIOPIA: ETHNIC FEDERALISM AND ITS DISCONTENTS Africa Report N°153 – 4 September 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. FEDERALISING THE POLITY..................................................................................... 2 A. THE IMPERIAL PERIOD (-1974) ....................................................................................................2 B. THE DERG (1974-1991)...............................................................................................................3 C. FROM THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT TO THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC (1991-1994)...............................................................................................................4 III. STATE-LED DEMOCRATISATION............................................................................. 5 A. AUTHORITARIAN LEGACIES .........................................................................................................6 B. EVOLUTION OF MULTIPARTY POLITICS ........................................................................................7 1. Elections without competition .....................................................................................................7 2. The 2005 elections .......................................................................................................................8 3. Divisions within the opposition .................................................................................................10 4. The 2008 local elections ............................................................................................................12 5. Preparing for 2010 .....................................................................................................................12 IV. CONTROLLING STATE AND PEOPLE.................................................................... 15 A. CENTRAL PARTY, DECENTRALISED STATE.................................................................................15 1. The national level.......................................................................................................................15 2. The regional level ......................................................................................................................16 3. The local level............................................................................................................................18 B. PUBLIC SPACE CURTAILED ........................................................................................................20 1. Civil society ...............................................................................................................................20 2. Media constraints.......................................................................................................................21 V. CONTESTED MULTI-ETHNIC POLITICS............................................................... 22 A. THE POLITICS OF SELF-DETERMINATION ....................................................................................22 B. ETHNIC FEDERALISM AND CONFLICTS .......................................................................................24 C. ETHNO-NATIONAL CONTESTATION ............................................................................................26 1. Oromiya region ..........................................................................................................................26 2. Somali region.............................................................................................................................27 VI. CONCLUSION................................................................................................................ 29 APPENDICES A. MAP OF HORN OF AFRICA................................................................................................................30 B. GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ACRONYMS............................................................................................31 C. THE OROMO LIBERATION FRONT (OLF)..........................................................................................32 D. THE OGADEN NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT (ONLF)....................................................................34 E. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ....................................................................................37 F. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON AFRICA SINCE 2006.....................................................38 G. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES................................................................................................40 Africa Report N°153 4 September 2009 ETHIOPIA: ETHNIC FEDERALISM AND ITS DISCONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front sion of differing views and interests as a form of betrayal. (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Before 2005, its electoral superiority was ensured by Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia’s political sys- the limited national appeal and outreach of the predomi- tem. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state nantly ethnically based opposition parties. Divided and into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined disorganised, the reach of those parties rarely went be- citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The yond Addis Ababa. When the opposition was able to intent was to create a more prosperous, just and repre- challenge at local, regional or federal levels, it faced sentative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued threats, harassment and arrest. With the opportunity in economic growth and promised democratisation, there is 2005 to take over the Addis Ababa city council in what growing discontent with the EPRDF’s ethnically defined would have been the first democratic change of a major state and rigid grip on power and fears of continued inter- administration in the country’s history, the opposition ethnic conflict. The international community should take withdrew from the political process to protest flaws in Ethiopia’s governance problems much more seriously and the overall election. adopt a more principled position towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and The EPRDF did not feel threatened until the 2005 federal pressures in Ethiopia’s polities will only grow, greatly and regional elections. The crackdown that year on the increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would opposition demonstrated the extent to which the regime destabilise the country and region. is willing to ignore popular protest and foreign criticism to hold on to power. The 2008 local and by-elections The endeavour to transform Ethiopia into a federal state went much more smoothly, in large part because the is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), opposition Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) which has dominated the coalition of ethno-nationalist was absorbed with internal and legal squabbles, and parties that is the EPRDF since the removal in 1991 of several other parties withdrew after their candidates ex- the Derg, the security services committee that overthrew perienced severe registration problems. The next federal Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974. The EPRDF quickly and regional elections, scheduled for June 2010, most institutionalised the TPLF’s policy of people’s rights to probably will be much more contentious, as numerous self-determination and self-rule. The federal constitution opposition parties are preparing to challenge the EPRDF, ratified in 1994 defined the country’s structure as a multi- which is likely to continue to use its political machine to cultural federation based on ethno-national representation. retain its position. The government has created nine ethnic-based regional Despite the EPRDF’s authoritarianism and reluctance to states and two federally administered city-states. The accept genuine multi-party competition, political posi- result is an asymmetrical federation that combines popu- tions and parties have proliferated in recent years. This lous regional states like Oromiya and Amhara in the process, however, is not driven by democratisation or the central highlands with sparsely populated and under- inclusion of opposition parties in representative institu- developed ones like Gambella and Somali. Although the tions. Rather it is the result of a continuous polarisation constitution vests all powers not attributed to the federal of national politics that has sharpened tensions between government in them, the regional states are in fact weak. and within parties and ethnic groups since the mid-1990s. The EPRDF’s ethnic federalism has not dampened con- The constitution was applauded for its commitment to flict, but rather increased competition among groups that liberal democracy and respect for political freedoms and vie over land and natural resources, as well as adminis- human rights. But while the EPRDF promises democracy, trative boundaries and government budgets. it has not accepted that the opposition is qualified to take power via the ballot box and tends to regard the expres- Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents Crisis Group Africa Report N°153, 4 September 2009 Page ii Furthermore, ethnic federalism has failed to resolve the promoted ethnic self-awareness
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