Global Water Futures, Rocky Mountain Water Supply and Irrigation John Pomeroy Director, Global Water Futures Programme, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon Water is the basis for life, ecosystems and economy Canadian Water is at Risk

Declining Source Water 1045 Current Drinking Water Toronto Flood (2013) Legacy Mine Waste Quality Advisories

Calgary Flood (2013) Great Lake Algal Blooms Drought: Prairies (1999-2004) The Great Thaw

Cold Regions Losing Cold (+6.5 Unprecedented Prairie Summer Permafrost Thaw Glacier Retreat degrees) Flooding

1-2 Month Decline in Snow Yukon’s Slims River Changes Extreme Wildfires Cover Duration Flow Direction Adaptation to change and threat mitigation requires

• New science • New prediction tools • New monitoring systems • More engagement with all Canadians • More effective mechanisms to translate new scientific knowledge into societal action Grand Challenge

• How can we best prepare for and manage water futures in the face of dramatically increasing risks? Global Water Futures: Solutions to Water Threats in an Era of Global Change

University of Guelph University de Montreal University of British Columbia University of Manitoba University of Northern British Columbia University of Victoria University of Calgary Brock University University of Laval Canadian Rivers Institute (University McGill University of New Brunswick & University of Prince Edward Island) University of Quebec at Montreal Yukon College University of Alberta

Global Water Futures - Mission

• Improve disaster warning – • Predict water futures – • Inform adaptation to climate change and risk management – Transdisciplinary Science Pillars

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2 Global Water Futures: Funded Projects

• 33 Projects • 15 Universities • 197 PIs &Co-Is • 159 Partners/ Stakeholders • Training 357 students and researchers over 3 years

• $23.5 million GWF grant funding • $26.8 million cash support from partners • $119.7 million in-kind support from partners GWF National Water Prediction & Observation Strategy • Core support teams to deliver: • National modelling capability, • Modelling Core Team (30) • Forecasting • Diagnostic modeling • Water resources modelling • Computer Science Core Team (3) • Human computer interface • Re-engineering model codes • New Observational Science • Water observations (20) • Data management (3) • Knowledge Mobilization (3) National Hydrology Research Centre, Saskatoon

Coldwater Laboratory, Canmore, Alberta

Canadian Centre for Water Forecasting and Prediction, Saskatoon New Water Measurements

Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory, Alberta National Water Prediction Strategy Recent Earth System Change in Western Canada Climate trends (1950–2012) • Over the interior of western Canada, systematic patterns of change in climatic regime and cryospheric response • Pervasive warming • Decreased fraction of precip. as snow • Decreasing snow cover depth, extent, duration; retreating glaciers b • Warming, thawing permafrost • Declining ice cover period • Earlier spring freshet • Hydrological responses have been varied, reflecting complex process responses Crop-climate-hydrology interactions

• Examine prairie specific future scenarios: • warm season crops moving westward • regional intensification of livestock feeding industry • significant expansion of irrigation industry

Agricultural Water Futures: Warren Helgason Management

Soils

Cropping systems & Crops hydrology modelling

Climate

Research

Crop productivity, crop water use, and water use efficiency Rocky Mountain Headwaters

Mountain Water Futures Snow, Rainfall and Glacier Fed

Whitfield and Pomeroy, 2016 Peyto Glacier Decline Hydrological Impact of Glacier Retreat Hydrological Impact of Glacier Retreat

Dhiraj Pradhananga 24 Impacts of climate and vegetation changes and uncertainty

Baseline observations

Perturbations: Climate change Vegetation change Both vegetation & climate changes 25 Mountain Snowpack Forecast Simulation - Kananaskis Kananaskis, AB Looking at Fortress Mountain N

742 Snow depth (meters)

Highway-40 SnowCast – Canada’s First Snow Forecast System

www.snowcast.ca Saskatchewan River Basin

AB SK MB

Saskatchewan River North Saskatchewan

Battle River Elevation (m) 261 584 Red Deer 908 1232 1556 Bow 1880 South Saskatchewan 2204 2528 2852 Oldman 3176 3500

Subbasins Streamflow stations Provinces River and lakes MESH Modelling of the Saskatchewan River Basin

Integrated Modelling Project for Canada – Saman Razavi Irrigation and Diversion in SRB

• In Southern Alberta, there are 13 irrigation districts providing water to 1,412,836 acres of farmland • In Saskatchewan Lake Diefenbaker supplies water to 11 irrigation districts with total area of some 80,000acres Model Calibration and Validation Oldman near the mouth (05AG006) Red Deer near Bindloss (05CK004)

Bow near the mouth (05BN012) South Saskatchewan @ Medicine Hat(05AJ001) Next Steps

• Downscaled climate models and future weather models

• Development of a water forecasting model for the SRB

• Diagnosing Future Water using scenarios of change • Temperature • Precipitation • Irrigation • Water management and use • Agricultural land use • Glacier coverage

• Water futures and management options for the Saskatchewan River Basin Global Water Futures National Hydrology Research Centre 11 Innovation Boulevard Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5 Canada Tel: (306) 966-2021; Fax: (306) 966-1193 Email: [email protected] Website: www.globalwaterfutures.ca