The Lancaster and Morecambe Labour Market Intelligence Report Part of the 2018 Lancashire Labour Market Intelligence Toolkit The Lancashire Labour Market Toolkit and Report Overview This report is the Travel to Work Area report for Lancaster and Morecambe, part of the 2018 Lancashire Labour Market Intelligence (LMI) Toolkit. Labour Market Intelligence is the term used to describe the wide range of information that helps inform decisions about work and training, covering topics such as jobs, salaries and employers, as well as education and skills. The toolkit contains three parts: LMI reports covering six Travel to Work Areas in Lancashire1, alongside a stand-alone report covering Lancashire as a whole; Fact sheets on each area; and A data matrix that contains all of the underpinning data which has been analysed to inform the reports and the fact sheets. This includes time series data (typically for up to 10 years) and data for Local Authorities, the six Travel to Work Areas, Lancashire as a whole, the North West and the national average1. The Matrix includes Local Authority and Travel to Work Area summary sheets which allow users to access summary charts and tables for their selected area. The report covers the four themes set out in the table below. Each theme includes a series of summary sheets, which set out key facts and figures, followed by more detailed analysis and commentary. Conclusions and key messages are also provided. REPORT COVERAGE This section provides data on the residents who live in Lancaster and Morecambe – their employment, occupations, skills and Residents in Lancaster and earnings. It also provides information on unemployment and inactivity. It covers the overall resident base including those who work Morecambe within and outside the Travel to Work Area. The underpinning data is available in the Resident Matrix which can be accessed on the Lancashire Skills Hub website The Economy in Lancaster and This section provides data on the jobs available at employers located in Lancaster and Morecambe. This includes jobs that are filled by residents from within and outside the Travel to Work Area. Morecambe The underpinning data is available in the Economy and Business Matrix which can be found on the Lancashire Skills Hub website Economic Forecasts for This section provides forecasts of the jobs expected to be available at businesses located in Lancaster and Morecambe in the Lancaster and Morecambe to 2018-2028 period. This includes jobs that could be filled by residents from within and outside the Travel to Work Area. 2028 The underpinning data is available in the Economic Forecasts Matrix which can be accessed on the Lancashire Skills Hub website The Skills and Education This section provides data on participation and attainment levels throughout the education system in Lancaster and Morecambe – from Key Stage 1 through to Higher Education. System in Lancaster and The underpinning data is available in the Skills and Education System Matrix which can be accessed on the Lancashire Skills Hub Morecambe website Key Messages This section draws out key Messages from across the sections above. 1 Travel to Work Areas represent labour markets in which the residents of each local area are most likely to work. Not all residents work in the Travel to Work Area in which they live. England excluding London is used as the national comparator, to remove the distorting effects of the London economy (which differs markedly from the rest of England) from the comparison. Report Contents The Population 1 >> Analysis and insight – The Population 2 Labour Market Overview 3 Residents in Employment 4 Residents in Occupations of Local Residents 6 Lancaster and The Skills of Local Residents 7 Morecambe >> Analysis and insight – Residents in Employment 8 Unemployment 10 Economic Inactivity 12 Household Economic Inactivity 13 >> Analysis and insight – Unemployment and Inactivity 14 Employment by Sector 16 The Economy in The Business Base 18 Lancaster and Employment by Location and Key Employers 19 Morecambe Employer Skills Requirements 20 >> Analysis and insight – Jobs in Lancaster and Morecambe 21 Employment by Sector Forecasts 23 Economic Forecasts Occupation Forecasts 24 to 2028 for Lancaster Skills Forecasts 25 and Morecambe >> Analysis and insight – Economic Forecasts 26 Key Stage 1 to Key Stage 4 27 The Performance of the Education and Young People Aged 16-19 28 Skills System in Apprenticeships 29 Lancaster and Higher Education 30 Morecambe >> Analysis and insight – The Education and Skills System 33 Key Messages Key Messages for Lancaster and Morecambe 37 Appendix Sectors, Occupations and Educational Routes 40 The Population in Lancaster and Morecambe – Who Lives in the Area? Overview of the Population Population Growth: The Past 10 Years (2006-2016) Population Forecasts: The Next 10 Years (2018-2028) Population by Age Band Lancaster and North England minus Lancashire Morecambe West London 0-14 22,400 16% 18% 18% 18% 15-19 9,900 7% 6% 6% 6% 20-24 15,200 11% 6% 7% 6% 25-34 17,200 12% 12% 13% 13% 35-44 15,200 11% 12% 12% 12% 45-54 19,000 13% 14% 14% 14% 55-64 16,600 12% 12% 12% 12% 65+ 28,100 20% 20% 18% 19% 91,500 residents (63.8%) are of working age (aged 16-64). This is slightly higher While the population is expected to grow by over 5,900 residents between 2018 than the share of the population that are working age in Lancashire (61.6%) and 2028, the working population is expected to get smaller. By 2028, there will and nationally (62%). be over 200 fewer residents of working age living in the area. Sources: Mid-Year Population Estimates, Census, Mid-Year Population Projections, 2016 Click to return to contents page 1 The Population in Lancaster and Morecambe – Who Lives in the Area? Total Population or nationally. The 0-19 years age group accounts for 23% of the total population, compared to 24% in Lancashire and 24% nationally. In The Lancaster and Morecambe Travel to Work Area is home to a contrast, 32% are aged over 55, in line with the share across Lancashire population of 143,517 people, around one tenth of the Lancashire total (32%) but slightly greater than regionally (30%) and nationally (31%). (9.7%). The population is the second smallest of the six Travel to Work Areas in Lancashire, higher than in West Lancashire (113,401). Working Age Population The Travel to Work Area comprises the entire Lancaster local authority There are 91,500 people of working age population (16-64 year olds) in area. As a local area, Lancaster is the second largest of the 14 local areas Lancaster and Morecambe, 63.8% of the total population. This is one that make up Lancashire, smaller than Blackburn with Darwen (147,000), tenth (10.0%) of the Lancashire total, similar to the Travel to Work Area’s and slightly larger than Preston (142,000) and Blackpool (139,000). share of the total population. The population of the Travel to Work Area has grown by 5.0% over the The working age population has grown more slowly over the past ten past ten years (2006-2016), equating to an additional 6,835 residents. years than the population as a whole – by just 2,500 people, or 2.8%. This This rate of growth is almost double the population growth seen in is a slower rate of growth than seen in the working age population Lancashire as a whole (+2.7%), but below the rate of growth seen nationally over the same period (+3.6%) but has outpaced growth in nationally over the same period (+7.2%). Lancashire as a whole, where the working age population has fallen by 1.0%. Gender and Ethnic Make-Up of the Population Population Projections The population is split almost evenly between males and females, with a slightly higher proportion of females in Lancaster and Morecambe (50.7%) The population of Lancaster and Morecambe is expected to continue to than males (49.3%). grow over the next ten years, with the Office for National Statistics forecasting an additional 5,934 residents (+4.1%). This is almost double Just over 96% of the population across the Travel to Work Area is of white the rate of growth expected for Lancashire as a whole (+2.1%), but lower ethnicity, with Asian / Asian British people accounting for a further 3%. than forecast nationally (+5.9%). Lancaster and Morecambe has the second highest proportion of the population being of white ethnicity across the six Travel to Work Areas in In contrast, the working age population within the area is expected to fall Lancashire, slightly below the 98% in West Lancashire. slightly, by 235 people, or -0.3%, reversing the growth seen over the past ten years. Although this forecast decline is less than the decline expected Population Demographics across Lancashire as a whole (-2.4%), it is set against forecast growth in The age profile of Lancaster and Morecambe is very slightly older, on the working age population nationally (+1.5%). average, than is the case in Lancashire as a whole, across the North West Sources: Mid-Year Population Estimates, Census, Mid-Year Population Projections, 2016 Click to return to contents page 2 Labour Market Overview – What do residents in Lancaster and Morecambe do? Unemployment Inactivity Employment Residents without a job, who Residents who are not in work and have Residents who have a job or are self-employed have been actively seeking not sought work in the last four weeks (either within or outside the Travel to Work Area) work (within the last four (e.g. looking after family/home, studying, weeks) long-term sick and retired) 71,100 people, 78.4% 3,400 people, 4.5% What is