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PICES-2018 Annual Meeting Book of Abstracts PICES-2018 Annual Meeting Book of Abstracts Oct. 25-Nov. 5 , 2018, Yokohama, Japan Prepared by PICES Secretariat Table of Contents Abstracts Sessions, Oral Presentations Session 1 . 7 Session 2 . 19 Session 3 . 26 Session 4 . 30 Session 5 . 35 Session 6 . .n/a Session 7 . 44 Session 8 . 53 Session 9 . 61 Session 10 . 67 Session 11 . 75 Session 12 . 88 BIO-Paper ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������93 FIS-Paper . 98 HD-Paper . 102 MEQ-Paper ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������106 POC-Paper . 116 Workshops, Oral Presentations Workshop 1 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������120 Workshop 2 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������126 Workshop 3 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������130 Workshop 4 . 134 Workshop 5 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������136 Workshop 6 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������137 Workshop 7 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������142 Workshop 8 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������145 Sessions, Poster Presentations Session 1 . 150 Session 2 . 154 Session 3 . .n/a Session 4 . 162 Session 5 . 164 Session 6 . .n/a Session 7 . 167 Session 8 . 172 Session 9 . 176 Session 10 . 177 Session 11 . 180 Session 12 . 186 BIO-Paper ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������188 FIS-Paper . 202 HD-Paper . .n/a MEQ-Paper ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������213 POC-Paper . 221 General Poster (GP) . 239 2 Workshops, Poster Presentations Workshop 1 . 233 Workshop 6 . 236 Workshop 8 . 239 List of Registrants ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������259 Author Index ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������309 3 4 Abstracts 5 PICES-2018 Session 1: Toward integrated understanding of ecosystem variability in the North Pacific October 29, 11:15 (S1-13826) Invited What is gained (and lost) through an integrated modeling approach: Assessing climate change impacts on Bering Sea fish and fisheries Kirstin Holsman1, Anne Hollowed1, Alan Haynie1, Kerim Aydin1, Al Hermann2, Wei Cheung2, Amanda Faig3, Jim Ianelli1, Stephen Kasperski1, Kelly Kearny3, André Punt3, Jonathan Reum3, Paul Spencer1, Christine Stawitz3, William Stockhausen1,, Cody Szuwalski1, Thomas Wilderbuer1, and Trond Kristiansen4 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA E-mail: [email protected] 2 Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and the Ocean, University of Washington/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA 3 School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. 4 Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway Climate change has the potential to impact an entire marine ecosystem, from physics through fishers, and can interact with structuring processes to influence ecosystems in ways that are difficult to anticipate. At the same time, emerging resource management approaches and evolving technologies offer sustainable adaptive solutions that may attenuate or amplify climate-driven changes. Consideration of these combined pressures and potential adaptive responses can yield divergent, yet equally plausible modeled future trajectories, which invariably reflect model treatment of the relative strength of bottom-up, top-down, and density-dependent interactions. Thus modeling climate change impacts on marine ecosystems requires an integrated approach that can address the multiple compound impacts and attendant uncertainty of climate and management interactions. We demonstrate the value, and challenge, of using a multi-model integrated framework as part of the Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (ACLIM) project. This includes projecting the biomass and distribution of groundfish and invertebrate species in the Bering Sea, Alaska (USA) under 11 future climate trajectories with low to high carbon emissions, various assumptions regarding climate-recruitment relationships and trophic interactions, as well as multiple socioeconomic, harvest, and management scenarios. We demonstrate that management performance varies under future climate conditions, and that trophic interactions can both amplify and attenuate climate impacts. Our results reinforce the importance of conducting multiple climate and management projections that can provide the contrast and breadth of scientific support needed to evaluate policy trade-offs under future climate change. October 29, 11:45 (S1-13588) Invited Understanding human and natural changes in North Pacific social-ecological marine systems: The FUTURE framework Steven J. Bograd1, Sukyung Kang2, Emanuele Di Lorenzo3, and FUTURE SSC 1 NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA, USA. E-mail: [email protected] 2 National Institute of Fisheries Science, Busan, Korea 3 Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA ‘Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific Marine Ecosystems’ (FUTURE) is the flagship integrative Scientific Program undertaken by the member nations and affiliates of PICES. One of the principal goals of the FUTURE Scientific Steering Committee is to develop a framework for investigating interactions across disciplinary dimensions and scales, specifically within North Pacific Social- Ecological-Environmental Systems (SEES). These interactions are complex and nonlinear, occur across a range of spatial and temporal scales, and can complicate management approaches to shared problems. Here we demonstrate the FUTURE SEES framework by looking at four case studies: (a) species alteration in the western North Pacific; (b) ecosystem impacts of an extreme heat wave in the eastern North Pacific; (c) jellyfish blooms in the western North Pacific; and (d) warming and species distributional shifts. An effective and comprehensive SEES approach is necessary to maintain resilient ecosystems within a changing climate. PICES provides the structure required to address the multi-national, inter-disciplinary issues we face in the North Pacific. 6 PICES-2018 October 29, 12:15 (S1-13656) Ecosystem variability and connectivity in the Gulf of Alaska following another major ecosystem perturbation Robert Suryan1, Stephani Zador2, Mandy Lindeberg1, Donna Aderhold3, Mayumi Arimitsu4, John Piatt5, John Moran1, Janice Straley6, Heather Coletti7, Dan Monson5, Thomas Dean8, Russell Hopcroft9, Sonia Batten10, Seth Danielson9, Benjamin Laurel11 1 NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories, Juneau, Alaska, USA. E-mail: [email protected] 2 NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, USA 3 NOAA Fisheries, Kasitsna Bay Lab, Homer, Alaska, USA 4 U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Juneau Alaska, USA 5 U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska, USA 6 University of Alaska Southeast, Sitka, Alaska, USA 7 National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA 8 Coastal Resources Associates, Carlsbad, California, USA 9 University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA 10 Marine Biological Association of the UK, Nanaimo, BC, Canada 11 NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Fisheries Behavioral Ecology Program, Newport, OR, USA Climate patterns in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) vary over annual and decadal time scales. Likewise, bio-physical coupling between the GOA and other large marine ecosystems (LME) in the North Pacific can also vary over time. Within the GOA, habitat complexity can modulate local-scale as well as basin-scale drivers of ecosystem response. We explore ecosystem variability in the GOA in the context of the recent marine heatwave, a period of prolonged ocean warming in the northeast Pacific between 2013 and 2016. We demonstrate the far-reaching effects of the heatwave from offshore epibenthic to nearshore intertidal species and across multiple life stages. We further demonstrate how the magnitude of the recent marine heatwave induced broad-scale ecosystem responses throughout the GOA. Examples of responses include unusual mortality events, reproductive failures and starvation in seabirds and marine mammals, changes in predator foraging behavior, changes in prey availability and energy content, missing pre-recruit cohorts, presence of species not often found in Alaska, and wide-spread effects on typically more resilient intertidal organisms. This large-scale marine climate event offers an opportunity to understand mechanisms of variability within and among LMEs and evaluate the relative strength of local to basin- scale drivers. October 29, 14:00 (S1-13779) Seasonal- to centennial-scale
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