Introducción
Catalan Regional Election 21D Comparative analysis to understand the upcoming elections
www.political-intelligence.es 1 Follow us on Twitter Introduction
On the 28th of October, the Official Journal of the State published the Royal Decree dissolving the Parliament of Catalonia and calling for early elections on the 21st of December, as proposed by the President of the Government. Hours before, the plenary of the Senate approved an agreement to ratify the measures required by the Government under article 155 of the Constitution for the first time in the history of Spanish democracy. The power to call for new elections by the President of the Government, which until the application of Article 155 rested in the hands of the already ceased President of the Generalitat, was included among the exceptional measures approved and subsequently adopted by the Government. On the other hand, at the same time that the Senate approved the measures referred to in Article 155, the Parliament of Catalonia held a plenary session in which the members of the pro-independence block, Junts pel si and CUP, voted a declaration of independence. In short, this series of events and staggered movements led to the dismissal of the Government of the Generalitat and the subsequent convening of the third regional elections in Catalonia in 6 years.
The team of Political Intelligence has prepared this report with the aim of analyzing briefly the current political situation in Catalonia, the next steps for the investiture of the new President of the Generalitat, as well as the main actors that will be part of this new scenario that will begin on December 22 and will mark the future relationship of Catalonia with Spain.
www.political-intelligence.es 2 Follow us on Twitter Chronology of the political events in Catalonia
The political events that took place during the past 27th of October and that ended with the announcement of new elections, marked a turning point in the so-called independence process. A process that cannot be understood without taking into consideration the political development of Catalonia over the past 20 years, since the victory of the first tripartite government of Pascual Maragall, passing through the reform of the Statute of Autonomy with the socialist government of Zapatero, up to the investiture of Carles Puigdemont in the elections of 2015, unexpectedly and in extremis. However, it was during this last legislature when events have precipitated significantly and the relationship between the Generalitat and the Government was severely affected and tense, with the subsequent application of the article 155 of the Spanish Constitution.
www.political-intelligence.es 3 Follow us on Twitter Chronology of the political events in Catalonia
www.political-intelligence.es 4 Follow us on Twitter Timeline to the formation of the regional government
Calendar
The day prior to the voting 20th of December
With the electoral campaign finished, this day is used in Spain to reflect about the vote. In this case it will be marked by uncertainty, both in Catalonia and Spain as well as in the rest of Europe.
Election day 21th of December
The Catalans are again called to the polls for the third time in just 6 years, in one of the more unusual election days of democracy, not only Electoral campaign because of its importance and political and social context, but also from the 5th to the 19th of December because it is a working day.
15 days of intense electoral campaign, with strong media impact throughout the territory and marked by an exceptional political situation, with several of the candidates to the presidency of the Generalitat processed by the justice or abroad.
www.political-intelligence.es 5 Follow us on Twitter Timeline to the formation of the regional government
Next steps
www.political-intelligence.es 6 Follow us on Twitter Timeline to the formation of the regional government
After the 21D elections: Negotiations to invest a new President
Despite the Christmas period and, in the case that there is no absolute majority, the negotiations to invest a new president could begin at the end of December. In the past legislatures, the days that have passed since the constitutive session of the Parliament of Catalonia and the investiture of the president were the following:
Carles Puigdemont 2016 107 Days According to this, the new president of the Generalitat of 27th September 2015 – 12th january Catalonia, if the necessary supports are gathered, could be Artur Mas 2012 invested between January and April 2018. In any case, the 25th November – 21st December 26 Days eventual president has to be invested within a period of 2 Artur Mas 2010 25 Days months from the first vote for the investiture, otherwise new 28th November - 23rd December elections will be convened. José Montilla 2006 23 Days 1st Novevmber – 24th November
Pascual Maragal 2003 27 Days 16th November – 13th December
Jordi Pujol 1999 17th October – 16th November 30 Days
www.political-intelligence.es 7 Follow us on Twitter The main actors
The electoral lists Description Proposal
www.political-intelligence.es 8 Follow us on Twitter The main actors
The electoral lists Description Proposal
www.political-intelligence.es 9 Follow us on Twitter The main actors
The candidates to the presidency of the Generalitat
Carles Puigdemont i Casamajó Xavier Domènech Sampere Ceased as President of the Generalitat on 28th of Professor of history and political activist. He began October, will run for the elections from Brussels. He his political career in Barcelona en Comú. He led the is a political activist of the independence movement En Comú Podem candidacy for the Spanish Congress and former journalist and mayor of Girona. in the elections of 2015 and 2016. Currently, he is the spokesperson of this formation in the Spanish Congress.
Xavier García Albiol Oriol Junqueras i Vies In March 2017 he replaced Alicia Sánchez Camacho as In pretrial custody since 2 November, subsequent president of the Popular Party in Catalonia. Garcia Albiol to his cease as Vice President of the Generalitat. is a MP of the Parliament of Catalonia since 2015 and, between 2011 and 2015, he was the Mayor of Badalona.
Carles Riera Albert Inés Arrimadas García Sociologist and political activist in several independence Leader of the opposition of the Parliament of organizations, Carles Riera is a MP of the Parliament Catalonia since the elections in 2015. She began her of Catalonia since 2015. He replaces Anna Gabriel as a political career in 2011. Previously, she worked as a candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat as the consultant in MAT and D’Aleph. internal statutes of the CUP prevent the repetition of an electoral list. Miquel Iceta Llorens A member of the PSOE from his youth, Iceta has a long political career both at the national level, as a MP of the Spanish Congress, and at the regional level in the Parliament of Catalonia.
www.political-intelligence.es 10 Follow us on Twitter The main actors
Who are the members of the electorals lists?
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Who are the members of the electorals lists?
www.political-intelligence.es 12 Follow us on Twitter A divided Parliament
The division of the Parliament of Catalonia after the elections of September 2015 was reflected not only in the electoral results and the distribution of the seats between pro-independence and against-independence forces, but also in tense debates about the laws that regulated the independence process. Since the call for elections and after two years of intense political and parliamentary activity, the Parliament of Catalonia was divided in the following way.
www.political-intelligence.es 13 Follow us on Twitter Conclusion: post-electoral scenarios
Lack of a governance agreement and call for new elections. As shown in the polls, and given the divisions among the political parties, this scenario gains chances given the possible lack of majorities or the emergence of internal divisions within both the pro-independence block and the non-independentist block, as shown by the manifest segmentation of solutions to the problem in Catalonia.
Majority of the non-independentist block. Depending on the results, an agreement between C’s, PSC and PP would be a change of direction in the Catalan administration. As shown in the polls, the PSC may hold the key to the achievement of this agreement. One of the issues to be resolved in this scenario would be the position of the left-wing party Cataluña En Comú Podem, since they manifested their opposition to both the “independence process” and the application of article 155 of the Spanish Constitution. An agreed referendum is included within the measures proposed by this political party.
Majority of the pro-independence block. After the government coalition between PDeCat and ERC (Junts pel Si) with the support of the CUP during the last term of office, the pro-independence parties could try to agree again on the governance of the Generalitat, in spite of the divisions that have arisen as a result of the implementation of the 155. Junqueras leads the polls as the favorite candidate to head this government, that will need a sufficient majority and an agreement between the pro-independence political parties to form it. Furthermore, the current judiciary situation of the candidate and the possibility of the application of Article 155 again has to be taken into consideration.
New left-wing tripartite Government. Although it seems less likely due to the importance that the territorial debate acquires in these elections and the political career of these parties in recent years, ERC, PSC and Cataluña en Comú Podem, could agree also the governance of Catalonia in a completely different scenario where ERC would be forced to put aside their aspirations of sovereignty.
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Javier Valiente María Rosa Rotondo Managing Partner - Madrid Managing Partner - Madrid [email protected] [email protected] Alex Boyo Consultant and Report Coordinator [email protected]
Infographics and design: Yeinyreeth Hernández
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