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Youth Employment Incentives: Activation Policy in Denmark, France and the United Kingdom (2008-2016)

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Youth Employment Incentives: Activation Policy in Denmark, France and the United Kingdom (2008-2016) Université de Montréal Youth Employment Incentives: Activation Policy in Denmark, France and the United Kingdom (2008-2016) par Shannon Dinan Département de science politique, Faculté des arts et des sciences Thèse présentée en vue de l’obtention du grade de doctorat (Ph.D.) en Science politique juin 2019 © Shannon Dinan, 2019 Université de Montréal Département de science politique, Faculté des arts et des sciences Cette thèse intitulée Youth Employment Incentives: Activation Policy in Denmark, France and the United Kingdom (2008-2016) Présentée par Shannon Dinan Aétéévaluéeparunjurycomposédespersonnessuivantes Jane Jenson Président-rapporteur Denis Saint-Martin Directeur de recherche Alain Noël Codirecteur Gérard Boismenu Membre du jury Giuliano Bonoli Examinateur externe Résumé Les jeunes (15 à 29 ans) sont particulièrement vulnérables aux chocs économiques et la capacité à intégrer le marché du travail est une étape importante influençant leur bien-être à long terme. La crise financière de 2007-08 a donc eu des effets importants sur eux. En réponse, les États capitalistes avancés ont adopté une série de politiques pour aider les jeunes. Pourtant, malgré ces nouvelles politiques, les dépenses publiques pour le marché du travail n’ont pas augmenté de manière stable lors de la période. Les analyses récentes semblent confirmer qu’au lieu d’investir dans les programmes plus dispendieux, les États adoptent des politiques axées sur une rhétorique de droits et de responsabilités. En effet, selon certains chercheurs, les États ont adopté des politiques qui créent des incitatifs pour joindre le marché du travail au lieu d’investir dans le capital humain. La recherche actuelle appuie l’argumentaire que les États-providence convergent autour de politiques de faible coût. Nonobstant les pressions pour le changement, les États ont différents besoins. Ainsi, il reste improbable qu’ils adoptent les mêmes solutions. Aucune analyse récente n’a étudié les politiques d’emploi des jeunes adoptées depuis la crise financière. Cette thèse pose alors la question, comment est-ce que les États-providence ont modifié leurs politiques de tran- sition depuis la crise financière? La thèse répond à cette question à partir de trois cadres analytiques du changement politique. Ces cadres sont appliqués à trois études de cas : le Danemark, la France et le Royaume-Uni. Afin de pleinement considérer ces politiques dans toute leur complexité, cette thèse se sert d’une typologie des incitatifs d’activation pour comparer des mélanges d’instruments entre gouvernements. Une fois les mélanges d’incitatifs déterminés, une analyse de process- tracing détermine comment les États ont modifié leurs politiques de transition depuis la crise financière. Ces recherches nous permettent de constater que ces trois pays ont adopté de nouvelles politiques pour l’emploi des jeunes depuis la crise financière. Dans chaque étude de cas, les États ont adopté des politiques qui perpétuent la logique d’action dom- inante. Or, chaque étude de cas a aussi adopté des politiques qui dévient de la logique d’action dominante. Ces changements sont expliqués à l’aide de trois cadres théoriques, l’apprentissage, les ressources et l’institutionnalisme historique. Cette recherche contribue à la littérature de l’État-providence en outrepassant la littérature existante et donnant un rapport détaillé des politiques d’activation pour les jeunes et de leur adoption depuis la crise financière. Mots clefs : État providence comparé; jeunesse; activation; politiques de transition; poli- tiques du marché du travail; changement institutionnel. 4 Abstract Youth (15 to 29-year-olds) are vulnerable to economic shocks, and the ability to enter the labour market has significant effects on their long-term wellbeing. Consequently, the 2007- 08 financial crisis had the potential to affect youth gravely, which is why welfare states adopted a series of policy initiatives to help youth in the post-crisis. Although countries adopted policies, traditional data such as labour market policy expenditures do not re- veal increased spending consistent with higher unemployment levels. Research also shows welfare states have favoured policies that reinforce incentives to join the labour market and help individuals market their skills over more expensive policies that invest in hu- man capital since the financial crisis. These analyses support the argument welfare states are converging around low-cost policies. These pressures notwithstanding, the adoption of similar policies is unusual because the needs between countries remain diverse. For that reason, and despite the factors inhibiting change, countries should not be adopting the same policies to respond to high youth unemployment. This dissertation investigates this complex policy environment by using a typology of activation incentives to compare pol- icy instrument mixes between governments. Process-tracing is then used to determine how welfare states modified their youth employment policies since the financial crisis. First, qualitative data is used to identify the different policy mixes adopted in each case. Second, the policymaking process is analyzed using process-tracing methods. Research findings indicate all three cases, Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom, adopted new youth policies after the financial crisis. In addition to funding policies that continue typ- ical logics found in each country, evidence shows each case adopted policies that deviate from established logics. These results are explained using three theoretical frameworks to identify mechanisms for change: policy learning, power resources and historical institu- tionalism. For each case, the dissertation outlines how these factors interacted to affect the policymaking process. This research contributes to welfare state literature by going beyond existing quantitative analysis to provide an in-depth account of youth activation policies and the policymaking process in the post-crisis. Keywords: comparative welfare state; youth; activation; transition policy; labour market policy; institutional change. 6 Contents Résumé 3 Abstract 5 Table of Contents 12 List of Tables 12 List of Figures 14 List of Abbreviations 16 Acknowledgements 20 Introduction 1 EmpiricalPuzzleandResearchDesign . 2 Dissertation Structure . 5 1LiteratureReview 7 1.1 WhyYouth?................................... 7 1.1.1. Youth, the life-course perspective and citizenship . 8 1.1.2. Youth, a vulnerable transitional period . 10 1.2 WelfareStateModernizationTheories. 12 1.2.1. Welfare state dynamics . 15 1.3 TheActivationParadigm. 19 1.3.1. Social inclusion through employability . 19 1.3.2. Individualization and neoliberal tendencies . 22 1.3.3. Reinforcing mutual obligations through incentives . 27 1.3.4. Forms of youth activation . 29 1.3.5. Youth policy recommendations since the financial crisis . 30 1.4 Conclusion.................................... 32 2AnalyticalFrameworksandHypotheses 33 2.1 DefiningPolicyChange............................. 33 2.2 Factors AffectingWelfareStateChange. 36 2.3 Cognitive Theory and Diffusion ........................ 37 2.3.1. Ideational framework . 38 2.3.2. Ideational evidentiary signatures . 40 2.4 PowerResourcesandPartisanPreferences . 41 2.4.1. Interest-based framework . 42 2.4.2. Interest-based evidentiary signatures . 46 2.5 Historical Institutionalism . 47 2.5.1. Historical institutionalist framework . 47 2.5.2. Historical institutionalist evidentiary signatures . 52 2.6 Conclusion.................................... 53 3Methodology 55 3.1 CaseSelection.................................. 55 3.1.1. Casepopulation............................. 55 3.1.2. State clustering along programmatic factors . 56 3.1.2.1 Threeworldsofwelfare. 57 3.1.2.2 Youth transition regimes . 59 3.1.2.3 Youth citizenship regimes . 61 3.1.3. Youth unemployment rates . 62 3.1.4. Policy change . 64 3.1.5. Casechoice ............................... 65 3.2 Methodology .................................. 65 3.2.1. Systematic process analysis . 67 3.3 Sources and Data . 69 3.4 Conclusion.................................... 70 4CasePopulationComparativeAnalysis 71 4.1 YouthEntitlementLevels . 72 4.1.1. Benefit access in the school-to-work transition . 72 4.1.2. Benefit access in the unemployment-to-employment transition . 75 4.1.3. Benefit conditionality . 78 4.2 ExpendituresandParticipationRates. 79 4.2.1. LMP expenditures and participation rates . 80 4.3 Policy Adoption . 85 4.4 Conclusion.................................... 87 5ActivationIncentiveTypology 89 5.1 Transition Policies . 90 5.2 LabourMarketActivationClassifications . 92 5.2.1. Existingactivationclassifications . 93 5.3 Conceptualizing Activation Incentives . 98 5.3.1. Overcoming limitations in existing literature . 100 5.3.2. Activation incentive typology . 102 5.3.2.1 Typology dimensions . 102 5.3.2.2 Activation incentive types . 104 5.4 Conclusion.................................... 108 6Denmark 109 6.1 A Flexicurity Welfare State . 109 8 6.2 The Golden Triangle of Danish Activation . 111 6.2.1. Youth activation . 112 6.2.2. Reforms before the financial crisis . 114 6.3 Hypotheses . 115 6.3.1. Policy learning . 115 6.3.2. Coalitionformation. 116 6.3.3. Feedback effects............................. 118 6.4 TheBlueCoalitionGovernment . 120 6.4.1. Cyclicalreforms............................. 120 6.4.2. Structural reforms . 122 6.5 TheoryTestingandNarrative . 123 6.5.1. Issue salience . 123 6.5.2. Government response to the crisis . 124 6.5.3. Ideational influence . 125 6.5.4. Competing interests
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