SOUTHERN AFRICA AFTER APARTHEID Regional Integration and External Resources
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SOUTHERN AFRICA AFTER APARTHEID Regional Integration and External Resources Edited by Bertil Ode'n Seminar Proceedings No. 28 The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies Seminar Proceedings No. 28 SOUTHERN AFRICA AFTER APARTHEID Regional Integration and External Resources Edited by Bertil Odkn Nordiska Afrikainstitutet, Uppsala, 1993 (The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies) Indexing terms Development aid Economic integration International relations International trade Regional cooperation SADCC Southern Africa Cover picture: Adriaan Honcoop Typesetting: Gun-Britt Nilsson Copyediting: Sonja Johansson and Mai Palmberg Language polishing: Alan Harkess O Nordiska Afrikainstitutet, 1993 Printed in Sweden by Bohuslaningens Boktryckeri AB, Uddevalla 1993 ISSN 0281-0018 Uppsala universitet ISBN 91-7106-332-3 Repro HSC, Uppsala 1996 Contents Preface Introduction Bertil Ode'n THEORY ORIENTED PERSPECTIVES 1. Classical Models of Regional Integration-what Relevance for Southern Africa? Tom 0stergaard 27 2. Some Experiences from Regional Cooperation between Third World Countries Hans C. Blomqvist, Christian Lindholm, Mats Lundahl and Sven Schauman 48 ISSUE ORIENTED PERSPECTIVES 3. Emerging South African Perspectives on Regional Cooperation and Integration after Apartheid Robert Davies 71 4. Towards Enhanced Regional Security in Southern Africa? Thomas Ohlson and Stephen J. Sfedman 87 5. Post-Apartheid Regional Financial and Monetary Cooperation Charles Harvey and Derek Hudson 108 6. The Effectiveness of Regional Transport Networks in Southern Africa-some Post-Apartheid Perspectives Oliver S. Saasa 130 ORGANISATION ORIENTED PERSPECTIVES 7. What Role for SADC(C) in the Post-Apartheid Era? Arne Tostensen 8. SADCC-Future Challenges Emang Motlhabane Maphanyane 9. Prospects for SACU after Apartheid Jan Isaksen 10. Will PTA be Relevant in the Post-Apartheid Era? Arve Ofsfad EXTERNAL RESOURCES ORIENTED PERSPECTIVES 11. Factors Affecting the Flows of External Capital to Post-Apartheid Southern Africa Bert il Ode'n 221 cont. 12. Swedish Aid Priorities for Regional Development in Southern Africa Jan Cedergren 240 13. %wedishTrade and Investment Links with Southern Africa Ake Magnusson 247 Concluding remarks Bertil Odkn Bibliography 263 List of contributors 276 List of tables SADCC member states and South Africa. Basic indicators 1990 6 Membership in regional organisations 6 2.1. Main economic indicators for the ASEAN countries 55 2.2. Intra-regional trade between the ASEAN countries, 1970-1989 57 2.3. Main economic indicators for the CACM countries, 1989 61 2.4. Main economic indicators for the LAFTA countries, 1989 63 3.1. Trade of SACU members with other African countries, 1985 74 5.1. South African trade with selected neighbouring countries 111 6.1. SADDC annual port capacities in January 1992 133 6.2. Distribution of SADCC overseas traffic by volume, 1987 137 10.1. Intra-PTA trade for 1988 by country of origin/destination 202 10.2. Global and intra-PTA trade 1980-1988 204 11.1. Net capital flows to South Africa 1985-1990 223 11.2. Foreign direct investment into Southern Africa 223 11.3. Direct investment in the SADCC countries 224 11.4. Non-concessional loans to the SADCC countries 225 11.5. ODA from all sources to the SADCC countries 1980,1986-1990 227 11.6. Main sources of aid to the SADCC countries in 1990 227 11.7. Main donors to the individual SADCC countries, 1990 228 11.8. Anti-apartheid and humanitarian aid to South Africa, 1990-1991 235 12.1. Swedish aid budget allocations for Southern Africa 1992/93 243 13.1. Swedish companies in South Africa 248 13.2. Swedish companies in South Africa, Established units 248 13.3. Growth of real GDP per capita, 1965-2000 250 13.4. Trade between Sweden and the SADCC region 251 13.5. Swedfund/Swedecorp in the SADCC region 1991 254 Map Southern Africa List of figures 4.1. Linear scenarios for the Southern African regional security complex 94 5.1. South Africa real exchange rate, Zimbabwe, Botswana 112 5.2. South Africa real exchange rate, Zambia, Malawi 113 5.3. South Africa real exchange rate, Mozambique 113 Abbreviations AAM Anti-Apartheid Movement (England) IMPOD Government agency for import of ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific coun- Third World products to Sweden tries, signatories to the Lome LAFTA Latin American Free Trade Conventions Association ADPS Asian Dialogue Partner System LAIA Latin American Integration AEC African Economic Community Association ADB African Development Bank LDC Less Developed Countries ANC African National Congress LNDC Lesotho National Development APEC Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation Corporation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian MDC More Developed Countries Nations MFN Most Favoured Nation BLNS Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, MPLA Movimento Popular de Libertaqao de Swaziland Angola BLS Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland NGO Non-Governmental Organization CABEl Central American Bank for Economic NIC Newly Industrialised Countries Integration OAU Organization of African Unity CACM Central American Common Market ODA Official Development Assistance CCA Common Customs Area OECD Organization for Economic Cooper- CCC Central American Clearing House ation and Development CEAO Communaute Economique de OGL Open General Licence 1'Afrique de I'Ouest OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting CET Common External Tariff Countries CMA Common Monetary Area PAC Pan-African Congress CODESA Convention for a Democratic South PECC Pacific Economic Cooperation Africa Council CONSAS Constellation of Southern African PTA Preferential Trade Area for Eastern States and Southern Africa CSCE Conference on Security and RENAMO Resisthcia Nacional de Cooperation in Europe Mocambique DAC Development Assistance Committee RMA Rand Monetary Area (of the OECD) SACU Southern African Customs Union DBSA Development Bank of Southern SADC Southern African Development Africa Community EAC East African Community SADCC Southern African Development EAEG East Asian Economic Group Coordination Conference EC European Community SAP Structural Adjustment Programme ECLA Economic Commission for Latin SATS South African Transport Services America SDR Special Drawing Right ECOWAS Economic Community of West SIECA Regional Secretariat for coordination African States of the integration process (Central EERM European Exchange Rate Mechanism America) EMS European Monetary System SUKAB The Swedish Countertrade Company ERM Exchange Rate Mechanism TBVC Transkei, Bophutatswana, Venda, ESADB Eastern and Southern African Ciskei Development Bank TINET PTA Programme for Trade EU European Union Information FRELIMO Frente de Libertaqao de Mocambique TNC Transnational corporation GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and UAPTA PTA Unit of Account Trade UN United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade GNP Gross National Product and Development GSP Generalised System of Preferences UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scien- IBRD International Bank for tific and Cultural Organization Reconstruction and Development UNIDO United Nations Industry Develop- IDA International Development ment Organization Association UNITA Uniao Nacional para Independencia IF1 International Financial Institutions Total de Angola ILO International Labour Organization WFP World Food Programme IMF International Monetary Fund SADCC member states and South Africa. Basic indicators 1990 Country Population Area GNP/Cap GDP Life expectancy mid-1990 (000 km2) 1990 1990 1990 (mn) (USD) (USD bn) (years) Angola 10.0 1,247 620 7.70 Botswana 1.3 582 2,040 2.70 Lesotho 1.8 30 530 0.34 Malawi 8.5 118 200 1.66 Mozambique 15.7 802 80 1.32 Namibia 1.8 824 1,030~ 2.18" Swaziland 0.8 17 810 0.81" Tanzania 24.5 945 110 2.06 Zambia 8.1 753 420 3.12 Zimbabwe 9.8 391 640 5.31 SADCC total 82.3 5.708 336 27.20 South Africa 35.9 1,221 2,530 90.72 ---p- -- --p-- -- Sources: World Bank: World Development Report 1992 a Calculated from EIU data b Figure for 1989 in Human Development Report 1992 Membership in regional organisations Country Membership SACU CMA SADCC~ Angola * Botswana Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe South Africa ' PTA also includes 10 countries in eastern Africa. Namibia became a member in January, 1993. he SADCC summit meeting in August 1992 decided to form a Southern Africa De- velopment Community, SADC. SOUTHERN AFRICA road ---- railway ! - Preface As part of its Africa Days in May 1992, Nordiska Afrikainstitutet (The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies) organised a seminar on Southern Africa After Apartheid. Regional integration and external resour- ces. The planning of this seminar has involved close cooperation be- tween the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Chr. Michelsen Institute in Bergen, Norway, and the Centre for Development Re- search in Copenhagen, Denmark. The main objective of the seminar was to examine some of the is- sues related to alternative modes of regional integration and cooper- ation and their relevance to Southern Africa after apartheid in a post- cold-war world. In this context attention has also been paid to the role of external resources, especially development aid. To carry out a multi-dimensional analysis, the seminar approached the topic from four different perspectives: integration theory, an issue oriented approach, an organisational approach and finally from the standpoint of external resources. The number of topics that may be considered under the heading of an "issue-oriented" approach is almost unlimited. All of them cannot be covered during one seminar,