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Beamer, EM and K Wolf. 2016B. The The influence of a naturally formed distributary channel on the distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Skagit tidal delta Eric Beamer and Karen Wolf December 2016 North Fork Skagit River, 2006. Photo courtesy WA Department of Ecology. This report is partial fulfillment of an agreement between the SRSC Research Program and the NOAA/WRCO SRFB Skagit HDM Project (P104051-A102542-n/a) 1 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 3 Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5 New distributary formation ............................................................................................................. 6 Methods....................................................................................................................................... 6 Results ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Juvenile Chinook Response to New Distributary Formation ......................................................... 9 Methods....................................................................................................................................... 9 Source of existing fish data ..................................................................................................... 9 Sites used and hypotheses tested............................................................................................. 9 Independent variables ........................................................................................................... 10 New distributary................................................................................................................ 10 Other covariates ................................................................................................................ 10 Data transformation .............................................................................................................. 12 Analysis approach ................................................................................................................. 12 Correlations between variables ............................................................................................. 13 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Hypothesis 1 (Grain of Sand) ............................................................................................... 17 Hypothesis 2 (Cattail Saltmarsh and Ika) ............................................................................. 18 Hypothesis 3 (Browns Slough sites) ..................................................................................... 18 Hypothesis 4 (Strawberry Pt N) ............................................................................................ 18 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Juvenile Chinook density .......................................................................................................... 21 Hypothesis 1.......................................................................................................................... 21 Hypothesis 2.......................................................................................................................... 21 Hypothesis 3.......................................................................................................................... 21 Hypothesis 4.......................................................................................................................... 21 Importance of covariates ....................................................................................................... 22 Month and annual Chinook fry outmigration size: ........................................................... 22 Peak and Average Skagit River flow: ............................................................................... 22 South Fork Restoration extent: ......................................................................................... 22 2 Future habitat trajectory of North Fork Tidal Delta .................................................................. 23 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 27 Recommendation .......................................................................................................................... 27 References ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Appendix 1. Restoration extent within the South Fork Skagit tidal delta, 2002 – 2015 .............. 30 Acknowledgements The fish data used for this study are from the Skagit Intensively Monitored Program which is funded, in part, by the following sources: Salmon Recovery Funding Board’s Intensively Monitored Watershed Program, administered by the Washington State Recreation and Conservation Office Pacific Salmon Treaty Implementation funding administered through the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission to Skagit River System Cooperative Juvenile Chinook outmigration estimates are from Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. This report is fulfillment of Task 4 of the agreement between the SRSC Research Program and the NOAA/WRCO SRFB Skagit HDM Project (P104051-A102542-n/a). Task 4 is “Estimate changes in the distribution of juvenile salmon resulting from the new North Fork avulsion, using existing fish sampling data”. Recommended citation: Beamer, E. and K. Wolf. 2016. The influence of a naturally formed distributary channel on the distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Skagit tidal delta. Report to the NOAA/WRCO SRFB Skagit HDM Project under agreement P104051-A102542-n/a. Skagit River System Cooperative, La Conner, WA 98257. 3 Abstract In 2006 a new distributary channel began to form within the North Fork region of the Skagit tidal delta. This created a new fish migration pathway within and through the delta, potentially changing the distribution of juvenile Chinook rearing in the delta and influencing juvenile Chinook use of existing habitat and future restored habitat. This study used existing fish data to test whether the formation of a new distributary has changed the distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Skagit tidal delta. The long-term monitoring dataset provides an opportunity to retrospectively test spatially explicit hypotheses for juvenile Chinook densities before and after the new distributary formed at six sites in the Skagit tidal delta and Skagit Bay nearshore. We found the new distributary is not a viable pathway to move juvenile Chinook from the North Fork Skagit River to Fir Island’s bayfront marsh habitat. Instead, juvenile Chinook that take the new distributary pathway are more likely to be exported to Skagit Bay nearshore than are juvenile Chinook taking the pathway along the North Fork Skagit River. The new distributary has changed water flow and sediment deposition patterns within the North Fork tidal delta, which are further influenced by large scale processes also acting on tidal delta conditions, such as sea level rise and sediment inputs from the Skagit River. We identify areas within the North Fork tidal delta where habitat changes are rapidly occurring, including a) areas where distributary channel habitat is filling and changing to marsh / blind tidal channel habitat, and b) areas with less certain habitat change trajectories. We recommend continued monitoring of fish and habitat in the Skagit tidal delta. The formation of the new distributary is a proxy for restoration actions being proposed in the Skagit (e.g., Fir Island Cross-Island Connector in the Skagit Chinook Recovery Plan) and other Puget Sound estuaries. It will be important to document how habitat in the North Fork tidal delta forms because of the new distributary and the surrounding larger scale processes, and how juvenile Chinook respond to changes. 4 Introduction Chinook salmon are well known for utilizing natal river tidal delta habitats for rearing during outmigration (Reimers 1973, Healey 1980). Several studies have linked population responses to availability of estuary habitat, either by examining return rates of groups of fish given access to different habitat zones (Levings et al. 1989) or by comparing survival rates of fish from populations with varying levels of estuary habitat degradation (Magnuson & Hilborn 2003). These studies support the hypothesis that estuarine habitat is vital for Chinook salmon population health. Studies of Skagit Chinook salmon indicate that tidal delta residence by juveniles is important for the population’s success. Based on a study of otoliths, individual juvenile fish rear in their natal tidal delta for a period of 0.5 – 2 months (Larsen et al. 2009). The average tidal delta residence period for these Chinook salmon in 1995 and 1996 (combined) was 34.2 days (Beamer et al. 2000). Beamer et al. (2005) found that at contemporary
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