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Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together

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THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Social Science for Counterterrorism Putting the Pieces Together Paul K. Davis, Kim Cragin, Editors Darcy Noricks, Todd C. Helmus, Christopher Paul, Claude Berrebi, Brian A. Jackson, Gaga Gvineria, Michael Egner, and Benjamin Bahney, Contributors Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-4706-9 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph surveys social-science literature relating to counter- terrorism. It also takes first steps toward integrating the knowledge reflected in that literature and suggesting theories and methods to inform analysis and modeling. Our project was sponsored by the Mod- eling and Simulation Coordination Office of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, with oversight provided by James Bexfield, the Director of Planning and Analytical Support in OSD’s Program Analysis and Eval- uation. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to the editors and project leaders: Paul K. Davis (Santa Monica, Cali- fornia; 310-451-6912; [email protected]) and Kim Cragin (Arlington, Virginia; 703-413-1100, extension 5666; [email protected]). This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Uni- fied Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at James [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200 S. Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................xiii Tables ..............................................................................xv Summary ........................................................................ xvii Acknowledgments .............................................................. liii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin Background ......................................................................... 1 The Challenge Posed ............................................................ 1 Approach ............................................................................ 2 Challenge and Objectives ....................................................... 2 Organizing Questions ........................................................... 3 Scope and Character of Inquiry .................................................. 3 Definitions ........................................................................ 3 Disciplinary Scope ............................................................... 4 Structuring the Research and Monograph ...................................... 5 Analytical Guidance ............................................................... 7 Bibliography ........................................................................ 9 Endnotes ...........................................................................10 CHAPTER TWO The Root Causes of Terrorism .................................................11 Darcy M.E. Noricks Introduction .......................................................................11 v vi Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together Objectives .......................................................................11 The Political Violence Literature ..............................................11 Factors ..............................................................................13 Precipitant Versus Permissive Factors .........................................13 Categories of Permissive Factors ..............................................14 Conclusions: Making Sense of the Factors .................................... 42 Implications for Strategy, Policy, and Research ...............................47 Critical Tasks for Future Research: What Should We Tackle First? ....... 50 Methodological and Measurement Problems ............................... 50 Leaders Versus Followers ......................................................52 Distinguishing Types of Terrorism ...........................................53 Bibliography .......................................................................55 Endnotes .......................................................................... 68 CHAPTER ThreE Why and How Some People Become Terrorists ............................71 Todd C. Helmus Introduction .......................................................................71 Radicalizing Social Groups ......................................................74 General Observations...........................................................74 Terrorist Recruitment ......................................................... 77 Bottom-Up Peer Groups ......................................................78 Alienation .......................................................................81 Desire for Change .................................................................82 Political Change: Desire for an Independent State and to Sow Anarchy .....................................................................83 Religious Changes: Caliphate and Millennialism ......................... 84 Single-Issue Change: Environmental Rights and Anti-Abortion ........ 84 Discrimination .................................................................85 Desire to Respond to Grievance ................................................ 86 Personal Grievance: Revenge ................................................. 87 Collective Grievance: Duty to Defend .......................................89 Identity .........................................................................
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