Resource-Rational Analysis: Understanding Human Cognition As the Optimal Use of Cambridge.Org/Bbs Limited Computational Resources
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1 the Good, the Bad and the Populist: a Model of Political Agency With
The Good, the Bad and the Populist: A Model of Political Agency with Emotional Voters Colin Jennings Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G4 0GE, UK [email protected] Abstract This paper extends the political agency approach to an environment in which voting may be divided between informed and instrumental, informed and ‘expressive’ and uninformed due to ‘rational irrationality’. It constructs a model where politicians may be good, bad or populist. Initially the existence of only good and populist politicians is assumed and the incentives for good politicians to pool with or separate from populists are investigated and the implications for voter welfare are explored. The paper goes on to consider the inclusion of bad politicians. The paper makes three main contributions. First, it provides a rational choice analysis of populism as populism is commonly understood. Second, it locates a potential role for government as a persuasive provider of information regarding the quality of policy. Third, when bad politicians are added to the analysis it is found that a little bit of potential corruption could improve voter welfare. Keywords: Political Agency, Expressive Voting, Rational Irrationality, Democratic Inefficiency, Populism 1 1. Introduction A crucial debate within Political Economics is the extent to which we can assume full rationality on the part of voters. Since Downs (1957), the concept of ‘rational ignorance’ has been a thorny problem to deal with. The idea is that given the very low probability of determining the outcome of an election, there is very little incentive for voters to become well-informed about the link between policy and outcomes. -
Collective Action and Rational Choice Explanations
Collective Action and Rational Choice Explanations Randall Harp University of Vermont 70 South Williams St, Burlington, VT 05401 [email protected] ABSTRACT In order for traditional rational choice theory (RCT) to explain the production of collective action, it must be able to distinguish between two behaviorally identical possibilities: one, that all of the agents in a group are each performing behaviors in pursuit of a set of individual actions; and two, that all of those agents are performing those behaviors in pursuit of a collective action. I argue that RCT does not have the resources necessary to distinguish between these two possibilities. RCT could distinguish between these possibilities if it were able to account for commitments. I argue that successful rational choice explanations of collective action appeal to commitments, and distinguish this way of explaining collective action from a general class of explanations called plural subject (or team reasoning) theories. I. INTRODUCTION One virtue of a good explanatory model is that it is capable of explaining why event � occurs rather than event �", for some domain of events � which is within the explanatory purview of the model. For certain domains of events, rational choice theory (RCT) is a good explanatory model in this respect. Given a set of actions �, where every � ∈ � is an individual action, RCT can be an important part of a good explanation for why agent � performed action �( rather than action �): namely, because � is rational, and because � judges that �( is more likely to produce a more highly-valued outcome than action �). As I argue in this paper, however, for another domain of events RCT is not a very good explanatory model. -
Behavioral Inattention
Behavioral Inattention Xavier Gabaix∗ December 4, 2017 Abstract Inattention is a central, unifying theme for much of behavioral economics. It per- meates such disparate fields as microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance, public eco- nomics, and industrial organization. It enables us to think in a rather consistent way about behavioral biases, speculate about their origins, and trace out their implications for market outcomes. This survey first discusses the most basic models of attention, using a fairly unified framework. Then, it discusses the methods used to measure attention, which present a number of challenges on which much progress has been done. It then examines the various theories of attention, both behavioral and more Bayesian. It finally discusses some applications. For instance, inattention offers a way to write a behavioral version of basic microeconomics, as in consumer theory, producer theory, and Arrow-Debreu. A last section is devoted to open questions in the attention literature. This chapter is a pedagogical guide to the literature on attention. Derivations are self-contained. ∗[email protected]. Draft chapter for the Handbook of Behavioral Economics, edited by Douglas Bernheim, Stefano DellaVigna and David Laibson. Comments solicited. Please email me if you see an important reference that's missing (including your own papers). I thank Vu Chau and Antonio Coppola for excellent research assistance. For comments and suggestions, I thank the editors of this Handbook, Hunt Allcott, and Gautam Rao. For sharing their with data, I thank Stefano DellaVigna, Josh Pollet, and Devin Pope. I thank the Sloan Foundation for support. 1 Contents 1 Motivation 5 2 A Simple Framework for Modeling Attention 6 2.1 An introduction: Anchoring and adjustment via Gaussian signal extraction7 2.2 Models with deterministic attention and action . -
Can Resources Save Rationality? “Anti-Bayesian”
Commentary/Lieder and Griffiths: Resource-rational analysis 31 want to draw inspiration from the theory of optimal feedback formalisms, and finding ways to decide which ones are more control, in which more precise control incurs greater metabolic applicable to particular settings. expenses at the organismal level (Todorov and Jordan 2002). The time scale over which resources are allocated.Attentioncanbe efficiently allocated in response to trial-to-trial variations in reward Can resources save rationality? or priority (Bays 2014;Sims2003;vandenBergandMa2018), in Anti-Bayesian updating in other words, on a timescale of seconds. By contrast, efficient neural “ ” codes are often assumed to be optimized with respect to natural sta- cognition and perception tistics (Barlow 1961;Laughlin1981), which vary on a much longer timescale. This distinction seems largely aligned with the one made under (1), with shorter timescales being associated with task Eric Mandelbauma, Isabel Wonc, Steven Grossb specificity. Resource-rational models are often non-committal and Chaz Firestonec about the timescales over which the optimization occurs. Recent work on efficient codes in nonstationary environments (Młynarski aBaruch College, CUNY Graduate Center, Department of Philosophy, New York, and Hermundstad 2018)holdspromiseforbridgingthedivide. NY10016; bDepartment of Philosophy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Learning to be resource-rational. A question that is not often MD 21218; and cDepartment of Psychological & Brain Sciences, Johns Hopkins asked is how resource-rational mechanisms are learned. The target University, Baltimore, MD 21218 article simply defines a constrained optimum and supposes that [email protected] “evolution, cognitive development, and life-long learning” have [email protected] somehow solved it, without saying how. -
Andrew P. Vance Memorial Writing Competition
Brooklyn Journal of International Law Volume 29 | Issue 2 Article 4 2004 Andrew P. Vance Memorial Writing Competition Winner Rational Irrationality: Why Playing the World Trade Organization as a Scapegoat Reduces the Social Costs of Armchair Economics Joseph Siprut Follow this and additional works at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/bjil Recommended Citation Joseph Siprut, Andrew P. Vance Memorial Writing Competition Winner Rational Irrationality: Why Playing the World Trade Organization as a Scapegoat Reduces the Social Costs of Armchair Economics, 29 Brook. J. Int'l L. (2004). Available at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/bjil/vol29/iss2/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at BrooklynWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Brooklyn Journal of International Law by an authorized editor of BrooklynWorks. File: SpirutMacro2.5.04.doc Created on: 2/5/2004 5:28 PM Last Printed: 4/8/2004 1:39 PM RATIONAL IRRATIONALITY: WHY PLAYING THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION AS A SCAPEGOAT REDUCES THE SOCIAL COSTS OF ARMCHAIR ECONOMICS Joseph Siprut∗ INTRODUCTION he World Trade Organization (“WTO”) may be one of the Tmost reviled institutions on the planet. If so, then this villainous role is one that the WTO should happily continue to play. This Article proposes a theoretical model of the political economy of international trade that conceives of the WTO as something more than a mere institution administering multi- lateral trade agreements. Like any regime of multilateral agreements premised on reciprocity, the WTO promotes free trade by mobilizing export interest groups to counteract the pressures of domestic producer interest groups, thereby making tariff reductions politically feasible. -
Economic Theory, Ideal Types, and Rationality
Lansana Keita Economic Theory, Ideal Types, and Rationality Abstract: Contemporary economic theory is generally regarded as a scien tific or at least potentially so. The replacing of the cardinal theory of utility measurement by the ordinal theory was supposed to prepare the groundwork for economics as a genuine science. But in adopting the ordinal approach, theorists saw fit to anchor ordinal theory to axioms of choice founded on principles of rational behavior. Behavior according to these axioms was embodied in the ideal type model of rational economic man. This model served the basis for scientific explanation of the choices made by actual economic agents. I argue though that the postulate of rationality is a normative principle and that this compromises the scientific pre tensions of economic theory. Yet the theorist must rely on this principle to formulate predictive and explanatory theories. This raises questions as to whether it is possible that economic theory satisfy the same kind of scientific criteria set down for research in the natural sciences. I. It is generally assumed that of all the social sciences, econom ics is the most promising candidate for acceptance as a science. Theories in economics conform to the formal requirements de manded of theories in natural science in the sense that they possess basic postulates, axioms and laws whose function is to describe at a fundamental level some segment of the empir ical world particular to the discipline itself. Predictive and explanatory theories are then constructed from these posited axioms and postulates. For example, microeconomic theory which is founded on a set of axioms of choice purports to predict and explain the behavior of the consumer and that of the entre preneur. -
Behavioural Economics for Investors
Behavioural economics for investors Guide CNMV Guide 1 Behavioural economics for investors Table of contents 3 5 Introduction Concept and basic foundations of behavioural economics 7 16 The decision-making process Phases of investment decision making 19 21 Mitigation of cognitive biases Mitigation strategies for that affect the investment cognitive biases decision process 31 Final recommendations CNMV Guide 2 Behavioural economics for investors Behavioural economics for investors I. Introduction Since the beginning, traditional economic theory has addressed the way in which people make their investment, saving and spending decisions. It is also based on the assumptions that people know what they want, use the available information to achieve their objectives and fully understand the risks and rewards of their financial decisions. In recent years, however, numerous discoveries from disciplines such as psychology, neurology or neurophysiology about how the human brain works have revealed that this is not the case. People often do not know what their preferences are, misuse available information and do not adequately understand the risks they take on. Behavioural economics studies real human behaviours in a real world to develop more precise and practical economic models than those provided by conventional economic theory. Behavioural economics takes into account those subtle and not-so-subtle factors that underlie financial decisions. CNMV Guide 3 Behavioural economics for investors This discipline is an attempt to analyse the patterns and biases of people’s behaviour and use these as a base to predict behaviour models. Research conducted in the field of behavioural economics shows that most of these patterns or biases are predictable. -
A Model of Boundedly Rational “Neuro” Agents
A Model of Boundedly Rational “Neuro” Agents Kfir Eliaz (corressponding author) Tel Aviv University and University of Michigan [email protected] Ariel Rubinstein Tel Aviv University and New York University [email protected] Abstract. We propose a simple model in which a boundedly rational agent observes not only the choices made by others, but also some information about the process that led them to those choices. We consider two cases: In the first, an agent observes whether another agent has compared the alternatives before making his choice. In the second, he also observes whether the decision was hasty. It is shown that the probability of making a mistake is higher in the second case and that the existence of these non-standard “neuro” observations systematically biases the equilibrium distribution of choices. Keywords: Bounded Rationality, Neuroeconomics. The second author acknowledges financial support from ERC grant 269143. We would like to thank Zvi Artstein, Hadar Binsky, Tom Cunningham and especially Neil Thakral for their assistance. 1 1. Introduction The standard method of modeling a decision maker in economics utilizes the concept of a choice function, which assigns a single alternative (“the choice”) to every subset of available alternatives (“a choice problem”) in some relevant domain. Thus, CA a means that the agent chooses the alternative a from the set A. Recent advances in choice theory have extended the traditional definition of a choice problem to include additional information, referred to as a frame. A frame represents the circumstances in which the choice problem was encountered, circumstances that do not affect the preferences of the decision maker, but may nevertheless affect his choice. -
Rational Choice Theory: Toward a Psychological, Social, and Material Contextualization of Human Choice Behavior
Theoretical Economics Letters, 2016, 6, 195-207 Published Online April 2016 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/tel http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/tel.2016.62022 Rational Choice Theory: Toward a Psychological, Social, and Material Contextualization of Human Choice Behavior Tom Burns1,2, Ewa Roszkowska3 1Department of Sociology, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden 2Lisbon University Institute/CIES-ISCTE, Lisbon, Portugal 3Faculty of Economy and Management, University of Bialystok, Bialystok, Poland Received 4 March 2016; accepted 11 April 2016; published 14 April 2016 Copyright © 2016 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of the rational choice approach, fol- lowed by an identification of several of the major criticisms of RCT and its conceptual and empiri- cal limitations. It goes on to present a few key initiatives to develop alternative, more realistic ap- proaches which transcend some of the limitations of Rational Choice Theory (RCT). Finally, the ar- ticle presents a few concluding reflections and a table comparing similarities and differences be- tween the mainstream RCT and some of the initial components of an emerging choice theory. Our method has been to conduct a brief selective review of rational choice theoretical formulations and applications as well as a review of diverse critical literature in the social sciences where ra- tional choice has been systematically criticized. We have focused on a number of leading contri- butors (among others, several Nobel Prize Recipients in economics, who have addressed rational choice issues). -
The Encyclopedia of Public Choice Volume I the Editors
The Encyclopedia of Public Choice Volume I The Editors CHARLES K. ROWLEY, Duncan Black Professor of Economics, George Mason University and General Director, The Locke Institute; and Dr. Dr. h.c.mult. FRIEDRICH SCHNEIDER, Department of Economics, The University of Linz Advisory Board JAMES M. BUCHANAN, Buchanan House, George Mason University BERNARD GROFMAN, Department of Political Science, University of California, Irvine ARYE L. HILLMAN, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University MARTIN PALDAM, Department of Economics, Aarhus University WILLIAM F. SHUGHART II, Department of Economics, University of Mississippi ROBERT D. TOLLISON, Department of Economics, Clemson University DENNIS C. MUELLER, Department of Economics, University of Vienna MICHAEL C. MUNGER, Department of Political Science, Duke University PETER C. ORDESHOOK, Humanities and Social Sciences, Cal Tech GORDON TULLOCK, School of Law, George Mason University HANNELORE WECK-HANNEMANN, Institut Fur Finanzwissenschaft, Universitat Innsbruck The Encyclopedia of Public Choice Editors CHARLES K. ROWLEY The Locke Institute, and George Mason University and FRIEDRICH SCHNEIDER Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Institute of Economic Policy KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS NEW YORK, BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW eBook ISBN: 0-306-47828-5 Print ISBN: 0-7923-8607-8 ©2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers New York, Boston, Dordrecht, London, Moscow Print ©2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht All rights reserved No part of this eBook may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording, or otherwise, without written consent from the Publisher Created in the United States of America Visit Kluwer Online at: http://kluweronline.com and Kluwer's eBookstore at: http://ebooks.kluweronline.com We dedicate ‘The Encyclopedia of Public Choice’ to the memory of Duncan Black 23 May 1908 to 14 January 1991 The Founding Father of Public Choice TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface . -
Rationality Vs Reality: the Dissonance Between Economic Models and Experimental Data Piotr Broda College of the Holy Cross, [email protected]
College of the Holy Cross CrossWorks Honors Theses Honors Projects 4-2017 Rationality vs Reality: The Dissonance between Economic Models and Experimental Data Piotr Broda College of the Holy Cross, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://crossworks.holycross.edu/honors Part of the Behavioral Economics Commons, and the Psychology Commons Recommended Citation Broda, Piotr, "Rationality vs Reality: The Dissonance between Economic Models and Experimental Data" (2017). Honors Theses. 13. https://crossworks.holycross.edu/honors/13 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors Projects at CrossWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of CrossWorks. Rationality vs Reality: The Dissonance between Economic Models and Experimental Data Piotr Broda Honors Thesis College Honors Program Advisor: Professor Mark Hallahan Reader: Professor Kolleen Rask Broda 1 Abstract Rationality was not embedded in economic theory from its onset. In fact, the discipline started with a more holistic approach to human nature, incorporating notions of empathy and altruism. It was not until economics progressed and became more concerned with mathematical models and abstract theories that rationality entered the fray. Game theory, developed in the 1940s, established several axioms about human behavior that presented people as perfectly rational economic agents. It was not until behavioral researchers started investigating the question of rationality that the economic worldview was critically challenged. This research was the driving force in the development of behavioral economics. In particular, ultimatum game experiments demonstrate systematic deviations from rational decision-making. As more and more research has emerged documenting how observed human behavior challenges the predictions of neoclassical economic theory, mainstream economics has begun incorporating these ideas. -
Rational Irrationality Across Institutional Contexts
Journal des Économistes et des Études Humaines 2015; aop Ryan H. Murphy* Rational Irrationality Across Institutional Contexts DOI 10.1515/jeeh-2015-0005 Abstract: This paper considers how Bryan Caplan’s concept of rational irra- tionality may manifest in various political institutional arrangements, building off the demand curve for irrationality. Mob democracy, anarchy, autocracy, and constitutionally constrained democracy are the governance structures addressed. While anarchy is strictly better than mob democracy, under certain conditions, democracy, anarchy, or constitutionally constrained democracy may yield the best outcomes depending on the circumstances. Keywords: rational irrationality, comparative institutional analysis, anarchy, autocracy JEL Codes: D03, D72 1 Introduction Rational irrationality supplements rational ignorance in the standard public choice perspective on government failure (Caplan 2001a). Rather than empha- sizing the potential for self-interested actors to reach suboptimal outcomes in political markets, rationally irrational voters are systematically biased in sev- eral distinct ways. According to Caplan (2007a), these biases include Anti- Market Bias, Antiforeign Bias, Make Work Bias, and Pessimism Bias. These biases cause governments to make inappropriate interventions in the economy and society. Rational irrationality may thereby explain inefficiencies observed in policy today.1 1 The purpose of this paper is not to re-examine the relative importance of rational irrationality versus rational ignorance. The issue of the “miracle of aggregation” is a difficult one for scholars arguing that rational ignorance is an important cause of bad public policy. However, many still argue that it has a detrimental effect, e.g. Somin (2013). *Corresponding author: Ryan H. Murphy, SMU Cox School of Business, O’Neil Center for Global Markets and Freedom, Southern Methodist University, P.O.