On the Problematic State of Economic 'Science'
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Collective Action and Rational Choice Explanations
Collective Action and Rational Choice Explanations Randall Harp University of Vermont 70 South Williams St, Burlington, VT 05401 [email protected] ABSTRACT In order for traditional rational choice theory (RCT) to explain the production of collective action, it must be able to distinguish between two behaviorally identical possibilities: one, that all of the agents in a group are each performing behaviors in pursuit of a set of individual actions; and two, that all of those agents are performing those behaviors in pursuit of a collective action. I argue that RCT does not have the resources necessary to distinguish between these two possibilities. RCT could distinguish between these possibilities if it were able to account for commitments. I argue that successful rational choice explanations of collective action appeal to commitments, and distinguish this way of explaining collective action from a general class of explanations called plural subject (or team reasoning) theories. I. INTRODUCTION One virtue of a good explanatory model is that it is capable of explaining why event � occurs rather than event �", for some domain of events � which is within the explanatory purview of the model. For certain domains of events, rational choice theory (RCT) is a good explanatory model in this respect. Given a set of actions �, where every � ∈ � is an individual action, RCT can be an important part of a good explanation for why agent � performed action �( rather than action �): namely, because � is rational, and because � judges that �( is more likely to produce a more highly-valued outcome than action �). As I argue in this paper, however, for another domain of events RCT is not a very good explanatory model. -
Behavioral Inattention
Behavioral Inattention Xavier Gabaix∗ December 4, 2017 Abstract Inattention is a central, unifying theme for much of behavioral economics. It per- meates such disparate fields as microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance, public eco- nomics, and industrial organization. It enables us to think in a rather consistent way about behavioral biases, speculate about their origins, and trace out their implications for market outcomes. This survey first discusses the most basic models of attention, using a fairly unified framework. Then, it discusses the methods used to measure attention, which present a number of challenges on which much progress has been done. It then examines the various theories of attention, both behavioral and more Bayesian. It finally discusses some applications. For instance, inattention offers a way to write a behavioral version of basic microeconomics, as in consumer theory, producer theory, and Arrow-Debreu. A last section is devoted to open questions in the attention literature. This chapter is a pedagogical guide to the literature on attention. Derivations are self-contained. ∗[email protected]. Draft chapter for the Handbook of Behavioral Economics, edited by Douglas Bernheim, Stefano DellaVigna and David Laibson. Comments solicited. Please email me if you see an important reference that's missing (including your own papers). I thank Vu Chau and Antonio Coppola for excellent research assistance. For comments and suggestions, I thank the editors of this Handbook, Hunt Allcott, and Gautam Rao. For sharing their with data, I thank Stefano DellaVigna, Josh Pollet, and Devin Pope. I thank the Sloan Foundation for support. 1 Contents 1 Motivation 5 2 A Simple Framework for Modeling Attention 6 2.1 An introduction: Anchoring and adjustment via Gaussian signal extraction7 2.2 Models with deterministic attention and action . -
Notes for Econ202a: Consumption
Notes for Econ202A: Consumption Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas UC Berkeley Fall 2014 c Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2014, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Disclaimer: These notes are riddled with inconsistencies, typos and omissions. Use at your own peril. 1 Introduction Where the second part of econ202A fits? • Change in focus: the first part of the course focused on the big picture: long run growth, what drives improvements in standards of living. • This part of the course looks more closely at pieces of models. We will focus on four pieces: – consumption-saving. Large part of national output. – investment. Most volatile part of national output. – open economy. Difference between S and I is the current account. – financial markets (and crises). Because we learned the hard way that it matters a lot! 2 Consumption under Certainty 2.1 A Canonical Model A Canonical Model of Consumption under Certainty • A household (of size 1!) lives T periods (from t = 0 to t = T − 1). Lifetime T preferences defined over consumption sequences fctgt=1: T −1 X t U = β u(ct) (1) t=0 where 0 < β < 1 is the discount factor, ct is the household’s consumption in period t and u(c) measures the utility the household derives from consuming ct in period t. u(c) satisfies the ‘usual’ conditions: – u0(c) > 0, – u00(c) < 0, 0 – limc!0 u (c) = 1 0 – limc!1 u (c) = 0 • Seems like a reasonable problem to analyze. 2 2.2 Questioning the Assumptions Yet, this representation of preferences embeds a number of assumptions. Some of these assumptions have some micro-foundations, but to be honest, the main advantage of this representation is its convenience and tractability. -
Three Dimensions of Classical Utilitarian Economic Thought ––Bentham, J.S
July 2012 Three Dimensions of Classical Utilitarian Economic Thought ––Bentham, J.S. Mill, and Sidgwick–– Daisuke Nakai∗ 1. Utilitarianism in the History of Economic Ideas Utilitarianism is a many-sided conception, in which we can discern various aspects: hedonistic, consequentialistic, aggregation or maximization-oriented, and so forth.1 While we see its impact in several academic fields, such as ethics, economics, and political philosophy, it is often dragged out as a problematic or negative idea. Aside from its essential and imperative nature, one reason might be in the fact that utilitarianism has been only vaguely understood, and has been given different roles, “on the one hand as a theory of personal morality, and on the other as a theory of public choice, or of the criteria applicable to public policy” (Sen and Williams 1982, 1-2). In this context, if we turn our eyes on economics, we can find intimate but subtle connections with utilitarian ideas. In 1938, Samuelson described the formulation of utility analysis in economic theory since Jevons, Menger, and Walras, and the controversies following upon it, as follows: First, there has been a steady tendency toward the removal of moral, utilitarian, welfare connotations from the concept. Secondly, there has been a progressive movement toward the rejection of hedonistic, introspective, psychological elements. These tendencies are evidenced by the names suggested to replace utility and satisfaction––ophélimité, desirability, wantability, etc. (Samuelson 1938) Thus, Samuelson felt the need of “squeezing out of the utility analysis its empirical implications”. In any case, it is somewhat unusual for economists to regard themselves as utilitarians, even if their theories are relying on utility analysis. -
Can Resources Save Rationality? “Anti-Bayesian”
Commentary/Lieder and Griffiths: Resource-rational analysis 31 want to draw inspiration from the theory of optimal feedback formalisms, and finding ways to decide which ones are more control, in which more precise control incurs greater metabolic applicable to particular settings. expenses at the organismal level (Todorov and Jordan 2002). The time scale over which resources are allocated.Attentioncanbe efficiently allocated in response to trial-to-trial variations in reward Can resources save rationality? or priority (Bays 2014;Sims2003;vandenBergandMa2018), in Anti-Bayesian updating in other words, on a timescale of seconds. By contrast, efficient neural “ ” codes are often assumed to be optimized with respect to natural sta- cognition and perception tistics (Barlow 1961;Laughlin1981), which vary on a much longer timescale. This distinction seems largely aligned with the one made under (1), with shorter timescales being associated with task Eric Mandelbauma, Isabel Wonc, Steven Grossb specificity. Resource-rational models are often non-committal and Chaz Firestonec about the timescales over which the optimization occurs. Recent work on efficient codes in nonstationary environments (Młynarski aBaruch College, CUNY Graduate Center, Department of Philosophy, New York, and Hermundstad 2018)holdspromiseforbridgingthedivide. NY10016; bDepartment of Philosophy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Learning to be resource-rational. A question that is not often MD 21218; and cDepartment of Psychological & Brain Sciences, Johns Hopkins asked is how resource-rational mechanisms are learned. The target University, Baltimore, MD 21218 article simply defines a constrained optimum and supposes that [email protected] “evolution, cognitive development, and life-long learning” have [email protected] somehow solved it, without saying how. -
Economic Theory, Ideal Types, and Rationality
Lansana Keita Economic Theory, Ideal Types, and Rationality Abstract: Contemporary economic theory is generally regarded as a scien tific or at least potentially so. The replacing of the cardinal theory of utility measurement by the ordinal theory was supposed to prepare the groundwork for economics as a genuine science. But in adopting the ordinal approach, theorists saw fit to anchor ordinal theory to axioms of choice founded on principles of rational behavior. Behavior according to these axioms was embodied in the ideal type model of rational economic man. This model served the basis for scientific explanation of the choices made by actual economic agents. I argue though that the postulate of rationality is a normative principle and that this compromises the scientific pre tensions of economic theory. Yet the theorist must rely on this principle to formulate predictive and explanatory theories. This raises questions as to whether it is possible that economic theory satisfy the same kind of scientific criteria set down for research in the natural sciences. I. It is generally assumed that of all the social sciences, econom ics is the most promising candidate for acceptance as a science. Theories in economics conform to the formal requirements de manded of theories in natural science in the sense that they possess basic postulates, axioms and laws whose function is to describe at a fundamental level some segment of the empir ical world particular to the discipline itself. Predictive and explanatory theories are then constructed from these posited axioms and postulates. For example, microeconomic theory which is founded on a set of axioms of choice purports to predict and explain the behavior of the consumer and that of the entre preneur. -
Intertemporal Consumption-Saving Problem in Discrete and Continuous Time
Chapter 9 The intertemporal consumption-saving problem in discrete and continuous time In the next two chapters we shall discuss and apply the continuous-time version of the basic representative agent model, the Ramsey model. As a prepa- ration for this, the present chapter gives an account of the transition from discrete time to continuous time analysis and of the application of optimal control theory to set up and solve the household’s consumption/saving problem in continuous time. There are many fields in economics where a setup in continuous time is prefer- able to one in discrete time. One reason is that continuous time formulations expose the important distinction in dynamic theory between stock and flows in a much clearer way. A second reason is that continuous time opens up for appli- cation of the mathematical apparatus of differential equations; this apparatus is more powerful than the corresponding apparatus of difference equations. Simi- larly, optimal control theory is more developed and potent in its continuous time version than in its discrete time version, considered in Chapter 8. In addition, many formulas in continuous time are simpler than the corresponding ones in discrete time (cf. the growth formulas in Appendix A). As a vehicle for comparing continuous time modeling with discrete time mod- eling we consider a standard household consumption/saving problem. How does the household assess the choice between consumption today and consumption in the future? In contrast to the preceding chapters we allow for an arbitrary num- ber of periods within the time horizon of the household. The period length may thus be much shorter than in the previous models. -
The Consumption Response to Coronavirus Stimulus Checks
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MODELING THE CONSUMPTION RESPONSE TO THE CARES ACT Christopher D. Carroll Edmund Crawley Jiri Slacalek Matthew N. White Working Paper 27876 http://www.nber.org/papers/w27876 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 2020 Forthcoming, International Journal of Central Banking. Thanks to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for funding the original creation of the Econ-ARK toolkit, whose latest version we used to produce all the results in this paper; and to the Sloan Foundation for funding Econ- ARK’s extensive further development that brought it to the point where it could be used for this project. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. https://sloan.org/grant-detail/8071 NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2020 by Christopher D. Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act Christopher D. Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N. White NBER Working Paper No. 27876 September 2020 JEL No. D14,D83,D84,E21,E32 ABSTRACT To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses to past consumption stimulus packages. -
Utilitarianism and Wealth Transfer Taxation
Utilitarianism and Wealth Transfer Taxation Jennifer Bird-Pollan* This article is the third in a series examining the continued relevance and philosophical legitimacy of the United States wealth transfer tax system from within a particular philosophical perspective. The article examines the utilitarianism of John Stuart Mill and his philosophical progeny and distinguishes the philosophical approach of utilitarianism from contemporary welfare economics, primarily on the basis of the concept of “utility” in each approach. After explicating the utilitarian criteria for ethical action, the article goes on to think through what Mill’s utilitarianism says about the taxation of wealth and wealth transfers, the United States federal wealth transfer tax system as it stands today, and what structural changes might improve the system under a utilitarian framework. I. INTRODUCTION A nation’s tax laws can be seen as its manifested distributive justice ideals. While it is clear that the United States’ Tax Code contains a variety of provisions aimed at particular non-distributive justice goals,1 underneath the political * James and Mary Lassiter Associate Professor of Law, University of Kentucky College of Law. Thanks for useful comments on the project go to participants in the National Tax Association meeting, the Loyola Los Angeles Law School Tax Colloquium, the Tax Roundtable at the Vienna University of Economics and Business Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law, and the University of Kentucky College of Law Brown Bag Workshop, as well as Professors Albertina Antognini, Richard Ausness, Stefan Bird-Pollan, Zach Bray, Jake Brooks, Miranda Perry Fleischer, Brian Frye, Brian Galle, Michael Healy, Kathy Moore, Katherine Pratt, Ted Seto, and Andrew Woods. -
Behavioural Economics for Investors
Behavioural economics for investors Guide CNMV Guide 1 Behavioural economics for investors Table of contents 3 5 Introduction Concept and basic foundations of behavioural economics 7 16 The decision-making process Phases of investment decision making 19 21 Mitigation of cognitive biases Mitigation strategies for that affect the investment cognitive biases decision process 31 Final recommendations CNMV Guide 2 Behavioural economics for investors Behavioural economics for investors I. Introduction Since the beginning, traditional economic theory has addressed the way in which people make their investment, saving and spending decisions. It is also based on the assumptions that people know what they want, use the available information to achieve their objectives and fully understand the risks and rewards of their financial decisions. In recent years, however, numerous discoveries from disciplines such as psychology, neurology or neurophysiology about how the human brain works have revealed that this is not the case. People often do not know what their preferences are, misuse available information and do not adequately understand the risks they take on. Behavioural economics studies real human behaviours in a real world to develop more precise and practical economic models than those provided by conventional economic theory. Behavioural economics takes into account those subtle and not-so-subtle factors that underlie financial decisions. CNMV Guide 3 Behavioural economics for investors This discipline is an attempt to analyse the patterns and biases of people’s behaviour and use these as a base to predict behaviour models. Research conducted in the field of behavioural economics shows that most of these patterns or biases are predictable. -
A Model of Boundedly Rational “Neuro” Agents
A Model of Boundedly Rational “Neuro” Agents Kfir Eliaz (corressponding author) Tel Aviv University and University of Michigan [email protected] Ariel Rubinstein Tel Aviv University and New York University [email protected] Abstract. We propose a simple model in which a boundedly rational agent observes not only the choices made by others, but also some information about the process that led them to those choices. We consider two cases: In the first, an agent observes whether another agent has compared the alternatives before making his choice. In the second, he also observes whether the decision was hasty. It is shown that the probability of making a mistake is higher in the second case and that the existence of these non-standard “neuro” observations systematically biases the equilibrium distribution of choices. Keywords: Bounded Rationality, Neuroeconomics. The second author acknowledges financial support from ERC grant 269143. We would like to thank Zvi Artstein, Hadar Binsky, Tom Cunningham and especially Neil Thakral for their assistance. 1 1. Introduction The standard method of modeling a decision maker in economics utilizes the concept of a choice function, which assigns a single alternative (“the choice”) to every subset of available alternatives (“a choice problem”) in some relevant domain. Thus, CA a means that the agent chooses the alternative a from the set A. Recent advances in choice theory have extended the traditional definition of a choice problem to include additional information, referred to as a frame. A frame represents the circumstances in which the choice problem was encountered, circumstances that do not affect the preferences of the decision maker, but may nevertheless affect his choice. -
Rational Choice Theory: Toward a Psychological, Social, and Material Contextualization of Human Choice Behavior
Theoretical Economics Letters, 2016, 6, 195-207 Published Online April 2016 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/tel http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/tel.2016.62022 Rational Choice Theory: Toward a Psychological, Social, and Material Contextualization of Human Choice Behavior Tom Burns1,2, Ewa Roszkowska3 1Department of Sociology, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden 2Lisbon University Institute/CIES-ISCTE, Lisbon, Portugal 3Faculty of Economy and Management, University of Bialystok, Bialystok, Poland Received 4 March 2016; accepted 11 April 2016; published 14 April 2016 Copyright © 2016 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of the rational choice approach, fol- lowed by an identification of several of the major criticisms of RCT and its conceptual and empiri- cal limitations. It goes on to present a few key initiatives to develop alternative, more realistic ap- proaches which transcend some of the limitations of Rational Choice Theory (RCT). Finally, the ar- ticle presents a few concluding reflections and a table comparing similarities and differences be- tween the mainstream RCT and some of the initial components of an emerging choice theory. Our method has been to conduct a brief selective review of rational choice theoretical formulations and applications as well as a review of diverse critical literature in the social sciences where ra- tional choice has been systematically criticized. We have focused on a number of leading contri- butors (among others, several Nobel Prize Recipients in economics, who have addressed rational choice issues).