Review of African Political Economy No.59:3-6 © ROAPE Publications Ltd., 1994 ISSN 0305-6244; RIX#5901 Transition and Transformation in Africa Anita Franklin & Roy Love On the eve of the first non-racial elections in South Africa the continent seems poised on the edge of a new political era. For many in Africa and elsewhere the April elections will be reminiscent of the heady days of the 1960s when decolonialisation and political sovereignty seemed synonymous with freedom and development. Three decades later, the euphoria has gone, Africa remains trapped in a web of underdevelopment. Nonetheless there is a a tendency to view South Africa, and this dramatic- moment in its history as exceptional and therefore infuse its future with all the hopes and broken promises of the region, and indeed the continent. South Africa's importance as an industrial centre is rivalled only by the symbolic power of black South African freedom. Events can move quickly however, and whatever one says about South Africa at a given time may rapidly become outdated. Nevertheless, we know that the new South Africa will need to cope with intransigent national, regional and international isues. The very nature of the transition to a post-apartheid state is being shaped by these concerns. Meanwhile, the redistribution of resources like land loom large on the horizon as does the danger of civil war from non- participating or otherwise disruptive groups on the right and in KwaZulu and Bophuthatswana. And what of the military, the police and their rehabilitation? How does a nation come to grips with the crimes of the past when so many of the protagonists are still in powerful positions? To tackle the massive legacy of unemployment, South Africa will be shaping its relations with its neighbours for decades to come. There will be a strong temptation to make further cutbacks to the employment of migrant labourers, with a view to redeploying those jobs to South Africans. Such a policy will aggravate the already difficult situation in states like Lesotho, Swaziland and, to a lesser extent, Botswana, where labour migration has provided a significant portion of their national income. Employment concerns will also create tension between the country's dependence on a prosperous regional ecnonomy for export demand and calls for protection from cheaper imported goods. On the other hand, SADC awaiting South African membership, may very well be the mechanism through which South Africa can gently enter into a transition of its regional relationships. Some aspects of that transition will be easy, for instance, the cessation of South African support for destabilising agents like Renamo and Unita. Other aspects may prove more difficult, like relinquishing its dominance in the South African Customs Union. It must not be forgotten that South Africa's industrial and commercial power both stems from and provides a vehicle for international capitalist forces, with the consequent widening of economic and class differences that have been for instance, characteristic of Botswana in recent years, and which are evident in Mozambique as it emerges from the anarchy of destabilisation. 4 Review of African Political Economy Events in South Africa, however novel in that country's history, exemplify themes which pervade the rest of the continent. These include the legitimacy of the democratic process, the role of external agency in economic and social policy, and the continuing colonial heritage, even at this late stage of the twentieth century, of sub-regional and ethnically based conflict. Elsewhere in southern Africa these themes remain dramatically in evidence. However pivotal the South African elections are, the spectre of societal disruption in Angola will not go away. The economic package forced onto Angola included super-deregulation of the economy which has encouraged the creation of a new class of poor as well as the very rich. In the absence of international powers policing these 'reforms' the level of civil violence has reached unprecedented heights, with Unita, a creature nurtured on Western complicity, refusing to acknowledge its electoral defeat and tearing the country and its people apart in a brutal bid to either share state power or split the country permanently. Further north, Mobutu likewise seems prepared to see civil society in Zaire fall apart rather than give up the increasingly limited power which it is able to retain in Kinshasa. Turning to West Africa and the Nigerian experience, there are parallels with southern Africa. Nigeria rivals South Africa for regional and continental dominance and is familiar with threats of national disintegration. West Africa also raises questions of external intervention. Ghana provides a clear example of the structurally adjusted state wherein various ministerial powers have been decentralised and problem solving is accomplished by prescription from the west. The recent imposed devaluation of the CFA highlights in a particularly overt way the continuing influence which the metropolitan power, and the ubiquitous IMF, exercises over this part of Africa. Throughout the region western exploitation through maritime trade, mineral extraction and fisheries thrives, as always on the backs of migrant workers, ethnically segregated labour markets and sub-regional rivalries. Democratisation is another important theme, with elections coming up in Guinea and Sierra Leone and the Rawlings victory still fresh in Ghana. In Cote d'lvoire, the death of Houphouet-Boigny raises hopes for democratic change alongside fears of continuing dientelism, while the chronic recurrence of military rule in Nigeria illustrates the problems of establishing a democratically based civil authority where ethnic and class interests compete in an emerging capitalist industrial state. Further north, in the Maghreb, progress towards a more democratic secular politics is halting and uneven, deeply compromised by economic crisis and state repression. Cautious moves towards political liberalisation in Mauritania are taking place in a context of recent ethnic conflict and tribal divisions and of deteriorating economic and social conditions, while in Morocco, the formal structure of a multi-party system and recent elections (1992) partly obscure the perpetuation of an authoritarian regime which has brutally repressed any serious opposition and whose ruthless pursuit of the annexation of the Western Sahara at all costs has been assisted by the support of the 'official' opposition (see ROAPE 53 and 58). The failure of the UN to maintain the momentum towards a referendum on self- determination in the Western Sahara, and its effective acquiescence to Moroccan abuses of the 'peace process', is an indication of the bankruptcy of the notion of a 'New World Order' in which justice is effectively maintained by international procedures and law-keeping. Meanwhile, in the refugee camps near Tindouf, the POLISARIO has committed itself to political pluralism and economic liberalisa- Editorial: Transition and Transformation in Africa 5 tion in the Saharan Arab Democratic Republic. Hopes of political liberalisation in Algeria and Tunisia, which rose for a while at the rum of the decade (with elections in the latter in 1989 and in the former in 1990 and 1991), have faded as the threat of militant Islamism — arising in part out of the social crisis associated with economic reforms and austerity measures and in part out of a deeper crisis of legitimacy of the existing regimes — has led to heavy state repression. The secular opposition remains active but has little room for manoeuvre at the moment. In Egypt also, despite elections held in 1990, the growth of support for the Islamic alternative has been met with heavy state repression, and the prospects for further political liberalisation look slight. The economic 'benefits' of Egypt's involvement in the Gulf War as a leading member of the anti-Iraqi coalition have failed to rescue it from its deep economic difficulties and the structural adjustment programme eventually adopted under the auspices of the IMF has, for far, produced few signs of rapid economic recovery. In the Horn the issues of external intervention and national disintegration reach a new apex as American influence seeks to reassert itself in both Ethiopia and Somalia, as bulwarks against the threat to western capitalist interests from the Islamic fundamentalism of the Sudan and across the Red Sea. Of interest in this region is how the discussion of disintegration is couched in terms of the 'national' problem in Ethiopia and Eritrea, the 'clan' system in Somalia, and 'tribal' politics in Kenya, all expressions whose meaning has been dictated by a European culture of dominance. Perhaps, despite a multitude of problems, the greatest hope for the remainder of the 1990s lies with Ethiopia, having shaken off autocratic rule for the first time in the country's history, and with Eritrea, emerging optimistically from three decades of war, insecurity and the collapse of its previously well established industrial and commercial base. Here too, however, external agency takes many forms, as witnessed by the repatriation of exiles from Germany in response not to renewed opportunities in Eritrea but to German immigration laws and the consolidation there of 'Fortress Europe'. And so to Tanzania, a country seldom in the Western news in recent years, itself indicative of a stability which survived the departure from centre stage of a charismatic leader, and one of the early socialist hopes of the independence period. As with neighbouring Zimbabwe, however, the hand of the World Bank and IMF has been at work; however, for all the damage they have done, they are beginning to learn at last from their mistakes. Africa is a continent undergoing profound change, with numerous events and processes bringing hopes for progress as well as dangers of intensified crisis. If international and internal forces act to prevent much necessary transformation there are nevertheless, numerous transitions going on. In South Africa, however much the negotiations may have seemed to dilute the legitimate entitlement of the oppressed, there is still the prospect of a final end to racist brutality.