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Home , Cybernetics, Dennis Meadows, Donella Meadows, Peter Senge

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by Lawrence M. Fisher by Lawrence

Unint Consequenc The Prophet of The Prophet

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0 4 e u s s i s s e n i s u b + y g e t a r t s - mental e inter- wn “ el of complexity and e innate qualities of , erage points for effectiv ent the new to hang on to hierarchy cumv esent a far higher lev e incapable of solving nonlinear equations en the most gifted and highly trained math avy. In his pioneering computer , In avy. esistance or other unintended consequences, epr vide hidden lev ees cir o ofessor Forrester’s understanding of complex sys- ofessor Forrester’s y r e of r Thus one of the most controversial aspects of Thus one of the most controversial P abstraction than most people can grasp on their own. leaders of all sorts and government corporate And yet persist in making decisions based on their o term for the instinctive Forrester’s Professor — models” ematicians ar in their heads. He premise. is also his core work Forrester’s Professor corporations argues that most social , from to cities, r vention. Modeling this kind of growth and resistance this kind of growth Modeling vention. nonlinear calculus — a form of math so intri- requires cate that ev then the problems are probably building under the sur- building under probably are then the problems burst forth yet. face and simply haven’t designing servomech- in part years tems derives from devices that inspired anisms — the automatic control centurythe field of in the mid-20th — for the U.S. N “tipping the slow-to-emerge modeled Forrester Professor would later call Gladwell (as writer Malcolm points” can them) that make systems difficult to manage, yet also pr their old ways. To Professor Forrester, these kinds of dis- Forrester, Professor To their old ways. comfiting phenomena ar occur when people tryand they routinely to instill ben- attempting to shift a complex you’re eficial change. If become haven’t and you , such as a company, awar maintain its current weight, producing cravings for fat- cravings producing weight, maintain its current how- a corporate reorganization, tening food. Similarly, as resistance to provoke designed, tends well ever emplo - ay owth ears. J wn implicit k called com e solutions to) eau famously urged Thor . , to maintain its o avid for 15 for ociously strategy+ y D e of (and counterintuitiv enr e is generally a principle at wor e spent an insightful couple of y , covered technology , covered ely amid complexity e natur New York Times York New eas H Professor Forrester, who turned 87 this year, is the who turned 87 this year, Forrester, Professor These problems, says Professor Forrester, are all are Forrester, says Professor These problems, anagement at the Massachusetts Institute of Tech- of Institute anagement at the Massachusetts ell-intended policies everywhere. home in the Concord woods must drive by Walden by woods must drive home in the Concord influential iconoclast of American the most where Pond, literatur A visitor traveling from Boston to Jay Forrester’s Boston from A visitor traveling Forrester, the Germeshausen Professor Emeritus of Emeritus Professor the Germeshausen Forrester, M also has a repu- School of Management, Sloan nology’s iconoclast, at tation as an influential and controversial But circles. least in management and public policy wher has Forrester Jay a of simplicity, humankind to live tryingspent the past 40 years more to help people live effectiv father of a field of research and analysis called system father of a field of research computer-based dynamics — a methodology that uses of gr models to simulate and study the interplay and equilibrium over time. Absorbing the implications time. Absorbing and equilibrium over pre- Forrester of these models in ways that Professor the mortals to comprehend mere scribes can allow obscur manifestations of the underlying nature of complex sys- manifestations of the underlying nature cells to to organizations and living tems, from exam- corporations to nations to the world at large. For ple, ther such knotty problems as environmental damage, the as environmental such knotty problems supply boom-and-bust pattern of economic cycles, chain malfunctions, and the pernicious side effects of w pensating : When someone tries to change one pensating feedback: part of a system, it pushes back in uncanny ways, first subtly and then fer goals. Dieters know this well; a person’s body will seek to a person’s this well; know goals. Dieters years and has written for and has written years dozens of other Fisher is Mr. publications. based in San Francisco. Lawrence M. Fisher Lawrence a ([email protected]), to editor contributing for the the for business

features the creative mind 3 features the creative mind 4 .) “A d, still ”) that orrester feedback ofessor F r s ranch. At the s ranch. At ’ American Gothic American ’s Servomechanisms Lab- ’s d turn, P otating radar antennas and gun e was a natural systems engineer; oss-roads of economic forces,” he later of economic forces,” oss-roads lim and bespectacled, he resembles the male lim and bespectacled, he resembles t of life.” H The ship left harbor with him on boar . . (S These systems used signals (“ “ is not biased toward any political toward biased is not dynamics “System At MIT, Jay Forrester met Gordon S. Brown, who S. Brown, met Gordon Forrester Jay MIT, At w the ship into a har wn had founded MIT w up e o e ent to MIT, lured in part a $100 per the offer of by lured ent to MIT, r at work, and soon encountered heavy fire from Japanese from heavy fire soon encountered and at work, shaft and a propeller hit severed When a direct aircraft. thr “Therecalled, me a very experience gave concentrated Lexington Natural Complexity Natural naturally attuned to on farms become who work People depends on the their livelihood systems, if only because soil, and plant and among weather, interrelationships in complexity interest Forrester’s Jay animal growth. he where began on the cattle ranch in rural Nebraska gr figure in the Grant Wood painting Wood in the Grant figure ideology,” says John D. Sterman, a former Forrester a former Forrester Sterman, D. says John ideology,” Sloan MIT’s of management at professor student and companies grow apply it to help people School. “Some world in a sustainable use it to promote faster; others Mean- .” a lesser would have which corporations need a clear that we “it’s Sterman, while, adds Professor to ourselves work don’t we where sustainable society was one of the junk. Jay more ever death and consume that conclusion through first to reach in the woods.” rather than an epiphany ranch is a cr and demand, “Supply in a 1992 autobiography. recalled, of pressures changing prices and costs, and economic become a very and dom- agriculture personal, powerful, inating par wind-driven as a senior in high school, he built a 12-volt cast-off automobile parts, using that provided generator, the first electricity on his family he earned a B.S. in electrical of Nebraska, University academic field , which was then the only he there From dynamics. in theoretical with a solid core w assistantship. month research would become his mentor and closest friend. Professor B oratory. During World War II, when Jay Forrester was Forrester II, when Jay War World During oratory. sys- the use of feedback control the lab pioneered there, tems. tracked the positions of r thus and mounts to help moderate their movements was dis- Forrester one point, Jay At gain precision. a radar antenna con- to repair Harbor patched to Pearl carrier he had designed for the aircraft system that trol - The seri vement. ” organi- roject-based (Doubleday, onmental crisis , as the most “ ester and others to extend eral of his former students eneurship ev orr w kind of “ epr oted to the field. P The Fifth Discipline The Fifth ntr (Potomac Associates, 1972), which (Potomac ofessor F entor of the computer game “Sim r edictions of global envir y P text of the global mo wledgeable prophet” of long-wave trends. of long-wave wledgeable prophet” r tments dev u ation and E v ears b right, inv ks incited, over time this otherwise extremely ks incited, over nno W I “The to the tendency is, the more older the person one from suffers repeatedly Forrester Professor es (for his pr ill ecognition might suggest. S shy, private person came to enjoy playing the provoca- person came to enjoy private shy, influence, particu- Forrester’s Professor Meanwhile, teur. than his modest name is broader larly in business circles, r and collapse). If he was at first surprised by the clamor he was at first surprised by and collapse). If his wor — including written bestsellers based on his work have author of Senge, Peter theories that most people have about the way the world the way about have people that most theories intentioned well no matter how These decisions, works. he says, decidedly inferior, comforting,or intuitively are of on computer models and strategies based to policies inter- of complex, — the interplay dynamics” “system Forrester Professor time. As a result, over forces related facing humanity problems pressing argues, most of the until a newtoday will elude solution famil- generation, enters leadership . iar with computer models, says. “It Forrester out,” Professor has been driven inquire system dynamics in at the grade- is much easier to bring school, because than it is at the graduate school level is much less to unlearn.” there its habit of work: unintended consequence of his own liberals (for his crit- from infuriated responses provoking and conserva-icisms of urban planning in the 1960s) tiv became Limits Former Royal Dutch/Shell group planning coordinator planning group Dutch/Shell Royal Former of the (inventor Seykota Ed wizard Arie de Geus, computer trading system), and first commercialized W as a key influ- Forrester all named Professor have City,” tagged him long ago, in the 1975 Drucker ence. Peter book zation, and Dennis and , Jørgen Meadows, and Donella zation, and Dennis III, who wrote Behrens William Randers, and 1990), which posited a ne ous and kno been incorpo- The principles of system dynamics have rated into scenario planning, wargaming, “lean produc- than a tion,” and supply chain management. More business have MIT, most prominently universities, dozen school depar a popular method in elementarylearning, now school the efforts extensive over from directly education, derives past 15 y system dynamics concepts to the K–12 classroom.

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RY ,” RY TORS RS Public NTO kers NTO ILE 1 o-driv NVE I 1 NVE v I RETA DISTRIBU 2 3 sumed Delay s A 0.5 rough for Decision Ma for rough 0.5 rs ive 2 ection, and the whole system jor Breakth rchase rospect P [4 Months] Pu ect itself several times before finally times before ect itself several ia

1 ce layoffs. So Professor Forrester inter- Forrester Professor So ce layoffs. stem Dynamics stem RY s s HOUSE d Med 958 NTO king vene 8 cti NVE WARE I strial Dynamics: A Ma strial les dvertising dvertising on Ma 1 uildup es from General Electric had come to MIT for Electric General es from A Effe B gencies an –August 1 A ly nformation Sa I “Indu u k in the other dir J 4 , 6 ecutiv ew ears to come, he tapped one of his graduate students to Modeling Sy Modeling

Stocks and Flows Stocks modus operandi for Forrester’s what would be Jay In y that could later named DYNAMO, write a program, renamed the Sloan School of Management. A group of A group School of Management. the Sloan renamed ex help; their household appliance plants in Kentucky help; their household appliance plants periods of peak demand, when every-oscillated between and slumps that lasted long overtime, one had to work enough to for manufacturing people and charted the viewed GE’s impact of their hiring and inventory decisions on orders pattern looked surprisingly like The resulting and sales. the technical patterns he had seen with ser nons in the military; the first shot would its nons in the military; the first shot would overshoot missing the shot would overcompensate, the next mark, mar would miss and corr pattern of overcorrec- connecting with the target. GE’s tion was exaggerated further delays in the ordering by manufactur- and poor between process 1.) Exhibit ing and distribution. (See evi tory tory ted from from ted ORY 6 nven I dvertising Decisi Adap A FACT : nformation ce wly ur d Business R d Business This diagram shows the interrelationships in Jay Forrester’s early model early in Jay Forrester’s the interrelationships shows This diagram The “buildings” (factory, chain problems. supply Electric’s of General — in this case, stocks represent retailers) distributors, warehouse, (such as orders of information flows lines represent Dotted levels. inventory influence. or causal of products solid lines, flows figures); or sales each step. for required the number of weeks show in circles Numbers Exhibit 1: Exhibit So var

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y, and he could y, om MIT. But by But om MIT. rofessor Forrester rofessor entions and patents Whirlwind 1, the first s early inv ’ , he had a reputation as a perfec- , he had a reputation ester eady orr eliable high-speed data storage, That tended to be tough on the people who e all his graduate students fr er ofessor F e found it in a faculty position in the ne r After the war, Professor Forrester led the Forrester Professor After the war, “I think there was nothing anybody in the lab could “I think there P H ett. “ er ed for r obert Everett, who worked with Professor who worked obert Everett, v general-purpose digital computer at MIT. general-purpose digital computer at R him as an recalls during those years, Forrester innova- and resourceful versatile exceptionally short- too tubes proved When vacuum tor. liv immersion in how research and theory research are immersion in how to practical end uses.” related team that designed the do that he couldn’t do as well or better,” says Mr. or better,” do as well do that he couldn’t E was nothing per- but they knew for him, worked there was almost always right.” sonal about it. He tionist, prone to accomplishing the impossible, with to accomplishing the impossible, tionist, prone up to his measure little patience for those who didn’t was having diffi- When a new receptionist standards. culty typing labels on file folders, P break. typed them out for her during her lunch earned him a place in computer histor in the new career to a long and lucrative gone on have Equipment the founders of Digital Indeed, industry. with Corporation, the minicomputer company credited Route technology boom along Boston’s the sparking 128, w 1956, he felt that the pioneering days in digital com- challenge. a fresh and he craved over, puters were Professor Forrester invented random-access invented Forrester Professor of today’s a forerunner magnetic computer memory, DRAM chips. Alr formed MIT School of Industrial Management, later Management, formed MIT School of Industrial

features the creative mind 5 features the creative mind 6 - e ndustrial I e. Professor ticularly dis ed ket shar e these policies solv e was a large backlog ce even during occasional during ce even ers compar w ou believ k for evie oblem in the first place. This can oblem in the first place. kers until ther y r y wor eate the pr to the works of Galileo, Malthus, Rousseau, Malthus, of Galileo, to the works e factor om inexplicable losses of mar ne of the consistent findings was par ders. This had given the company a reputation for the company a reputation This had given ders. O Contemporar On the other hand, once the links were revealed, the other hand, once the links were On e mor ed fr aintain a steady wor ous situation because if y ere not brought on by competitors or market trends, competitors or market on by not brought ere who were eager to bring their problems to Professor to problems eager to bring their who were in the hope that his computer simulations Forrester could help them. of most companies The problems turbing at first glance: w policies. “People of their own result the direct but were generate their policies inevitably their own that discover a very treach- “That’s Forrester. says Professor troubles,” er causing do not see that they are and you the problem, of the very more poli- keep repeating you the problem, cies that cr of or to lose interest, which caused customers deliveries, slow which, in turn, made the — which led to falling orders cautious about hiring, and thus more even manufacturer The solution was simple: to backlogs. prone more even M while building up enough inventorydownturns, to 2.) delivery Exhibit times. (See improve Dynamics produce a downward spiral toward failure.” spiral toward a downward produce changing by companies could often fix the problem that happened to some small but consequential practice (Professor influence all the other factors of the system. solutions.) For calls these “high-leverage” Forrester suf- manufacturer example, an electronics-component fer the culprit to be the company’s model showed Forrester’s waiting to by policy of buffering itself against downturns hir , - — (1961), dynamics ders, money ws that oper ’s managers do ’s ue cause and effect , the company k make tr Industrial Dynamics Industrial w ks — materials, or w on the experience of his MIT e e multiple stocks and flo e gets too lo ester dr e networ v orr n Professor Forrester’s world, what goes Forrester’s n Professor eser ws in and out of an individual’s checking ws in and out of an individual’s y fiv . I For his first book, For Most people can grasp very simple systems — say, a can grasp very people simple systems — say, Most The conceptual basis of his models was the critical The conceptual basis ofessor F r difficult to gauge. P students. They were typically managers, age 30 to 40, typically managers, age 30 to They were students. capital equipment, and personnel — with a sixth, the functioning as the connecting tis- information network, The complex interactions the other five. sue between each of which has its own networks, among the different and the feedback delays inherent set of stocks and flows, in the information networ whatever is needed to increase cash flow. No single No cash flow. is needed to increase whatever one and regulate factor dominates; they all influence another deposits and account (a stock) as that person makes he or she must gets low, When the balance writes checks. the simplest even stop spending or start earning. But organizations hav Forrester Professor networks. ate in interconnected postulated that most industrial activity could be repre- sented b around does inevitably come around. does around one feedback loop. and system with one stock, one flow, Cash flo relationship he had originally observedrelationship in servomechan- each other. governed ics: the way that stocks and flows into a bathtub. of water example, the flow for Consider, and when the level A person turns the tap to fill the tub, full, the person of water in the tub (a stock) is nearly cause and The chain of turns off the water (a flow). person and the effect is actually a feedback loop; the a com- Similarly, of water influence each other. level and losses are reserve of cash is a stock; its profits pany’s when of that cash reserve. But that affect the level flows the cash r which commonly referred to the interplay of physical or interplay of physical to the referred which commonly indicate that his models time — to over electrical forces at any of a situation a snapshot simply represent didn’t moment, but an opportunitygiven to see situations students use system dynamics Today, and evolve. grow the out” “playing programs, sophisticated modeling entering them or strategies by impact of possible policies runninginto the model and game. In it like a computer all of the code him- wrote Forrester the 1950s, Professor of the time. tools programming using the primitive self, translate his pencil-written calculus into the ones and into the calculus his pencil-written translate naming this In language. of a computer’s zeros new term the engineering field, he used

0 4 e u s s i s s e n i s u b + y g e t a r t 0 s 0 ol 968 Sales ter 1 inter ts) in 1963; , W ew ne evi ober 60 80 1 ay ugh-R ple peo ery del zed by eliv gni Sales D e used the methodology, but e used the methodology, loan Management R Management Sloan veled off. Why? Because those Why? Because off. veled reco ,” e market W HS tory y l entional command-and-contr nglish Channel. O ONT 40 OF M Investment es suddenl tal apital C S ynamics The conv NUMBER orrester himself, meanwhile, had reached the meanwhile, had reached himself, orrester D es. usinesspeople, it turned out, needed more than a usinesspeople, it turned out, needed more ced by fluenced ell as the fact that Visa would match the offering Visa ell as the fact that stem B e. Then sal ester or his ideas. “ n ted a consulting business (P I uctur ofessor F r orr prompted MasterCard’s decision to introduce the first to introduce decision MasterCard’s prompted The model accurately predict- affinity cards. third-party would gain MasterCard share ed the amount of market as w and Discover and that American Express within a year, in the cobranding. Pugh- would not or could not follow trumpeted never its connection to Professor Roberts F star plant power they applied system dynamics to nuclear the and planning design, missile system development, tunnel under the E that solution. It They needed to internalize solution. would take until the early 1980s for other Professor experiences that might students to create Forrester directly. change the thinking of decision makers more P uptake on the part of corpora- conclusion that the slow tions was a symptom of their stultifying management str we didn’t sell ourselves as system dynamics consultants,” sell ourselves didn’t we with the firm from who worked M. Lyneis, says James 1978 to 2002. amounted to a kind of corporate in his view, hierarchy, a Sy th as w espeopl of ed up with added production capacity; this produced delivery delays, delivery this produced capacity; ed up with added production

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We agree that we’ve been suc- that we’ve agree We ustrated him. E kable feat for a eturn to the company with a paper print could see the logic of the result, but they could see the logic of the result, emar y his former students, he found system ce of my insights.” ’s own impatience: He chafed at the time it impatience: He own ’s Some of Professor Forrester’s protégés were more were protégés Forrester’s of Professor Some Part of the problem was the computers of the day. of the problem Part “I was never successful in getting the board to successful in getting the board “I was never ester orr enthusiastic ambassadors to the corporate world. took to explain his solutions. Roberts, and Ed Pugh of his graduate students, Jack out. Clients “ he of getting there,” the process had not internalized hearing that they says. And managers did not enjoy wanted a solu- they just troubles; had caused their own another part was Professor of the problem tion. But F Jay Forrester would run models at the MIT com- his Forrester Jay puter lab and r cessful following your advice, but it’s not because of your advice, but it’s your cessful following a better manager than just because you’re modeling. It’s to pay attention having them from That excused are.’ we to the sour believe the models would work,” he says. “The the models would work,” believe last time I tried, one of them said, ‘ listen politely to his presentation, and go on with the listen politely to his presentation, Equipment, at Digital practices. Even same problematic managed b dynamics a tough sell. and John Stuart Mill, and it is Mill, Stuart and John in many reading still required the around MBA programs world — a r 40-year-old book packed with 40-year-old dense text and intricate diagrams. Professor brought success Its consulting engage- Forrester ments at major companies. But the assignments often fr

features the creative mind 7 features the creative mind 8 - - ely had brought elated, or . e interr solution.” But as solution.” But er only Urban Dynamics Urban w they w une 1970 meeting of the Club solution to the urban problem offended many social activists, a e exactly ho eportended up saying, as racist, and ester many speaking engagements, includ orr ee-market advocates claimed Professor Forrester claimed Professor advocates ee-market building low-cost housing, and thus giving cities building low-cost Urban Dynamics Urban ying the r e not solved the challenge of how to bring enough the challenge of how e not solved ofessor F edicaments they saw facing humankind: rising popu r oom to expand their economies naturally “They don’t just have have just “They don’t Professor Forrester lamented in his autobiography, “We in his autobiography, lamented Forrester Professor hav the barrier separating their usual, simple, people across under- comprehensive static viewpoint a more from standing of dynamic complexity.” P while fr truth, he belonged to neither In as one of their own. of his models. results the was just relating he group; commu- hours to fully to five took three it Meanwhile, and he rar nicate the implications to an audience, some con- made attention that long. He an audience’s activist who startedverts, including one Harlem out decr Overshoot versus Cornucopia versus Overshoot The notoriety generated by out of the vicious cycle they were in. The model sup- The in. they were out of the vicious cycle ported fostering industrial expansion arguments for before r up there at MIT; they have the they have at MIT; up there ing an appearance at the J was The Switzerland. in Bern, of Rome, made up of about 75 corporate execu- group, a private many countries. leaders drawn from and nonprofit tives a concern about the interrelated members shared Its pr lation, pollution, economic malaise, and social strife. but They knew that all contributed to one another, nobody was sur spiral. the downward to reverse how e of the or of Boston, evail. These evail. ideas Companies could often often could Companies but consequential practice that that practice but consequential , with a startling assertion: The , with a startling assertion: s clout, the two quickly assembled ’ influenced the rest of the system. of the system. rest the influenced ery much a man of action,” Professor el advisors from politics and business el advisors from . Collins, a former may fix problems by changing some small some small changing by problems fix . Collins ohn F ty would increase. Low-cost housing, intended Low-cost ty would increase. er ed people and concentrating them in decaying v ith Mr Urban Dynamics Urban y When J W “Collins was v ester’s. It was 1968, riots had broken out in cities out in was 1968, riots had broken It ester’s. orr a team of high-lev , no more likely to thrive in the long run likely to thrive than socialism, no more a world. In the planned economies of the Communist he pre- Corporate Design,” New 1965 paper titled “A forms, based dicted that less self-defeating management of exchange and the free on individual responsibility information, would ultimately pr theorists, anticipated the thinking of later organizational the In Zuboff. and Shoshana including Charles Handy was on to bigger projects. Forrester meantime, Professor After four the dynamics of urban poverty. to research had the basis for a new Forrester months, Professor book, took a temporary appointment at MIT as a visiting pro- assigned the office next to Professor he was fessor, F — researchers “I suggested enlisting recalls. Forrester who knewnot urban studies students, but people the for as long a half a day a week, urban world — for real as it would take, to extract a dynamic pictur be was: ‘They’ll immediate answer Collins’s problem. afternoon.’” Wednesday here across America, and the two instructorsacross naturally fell and about solving the stagnation into conversations that plagued many cities. unemployment neighborhoods that made it harder for them to break neighborhoods that made it harder to revive inner cities, actually crowded out industry that inner cities, actually crowded to revive jobs, while attracting under- created might have emplo harder a policymaker tried to relieve poverty, the more poverty, relieve a policymaker tried to harder that po

0 4 e u s s i s s e n i s u b + y g e t a r t s , ld ube The or ilken W M and the y Peter Passell, y Peter The Limits to The Limits ocess.” , they said, was w editor of the ritannica , written b ely on human ingenuity e r eness of their pr eover, Professor Forrester, in his Forrester, Professor eover, assell, no clopedia B ’t softened his opinion, though he ’t or ement that has continued to gain . P r can w v r ncy E eductiv , which sold several million copies and million copies , which sold several ew York Times ew York The Limits to Growth The Limits , hasn N as sources instead of econometric data, and as sources in the onmental mo Typical was a negative review of review was a negative Typical At the heart of the debate over limits to growth is an limits to growth the heartAt of the debate over “I literally came back to MIT the day Jay returned the day Jay came back to MIT “I literally called a popular The team produced oup of critics, who argued that the model gave short gave oup of critics, who argued that the model rowth rowth empty and misleading,” based on an “intellectual R nstitute Review Almanac “ conclusions that full of “arbitrary device,” Goldberg “less than really [had] the ring of science,” but were pseudoscience.” D G usual blunt way, had spent 15 years dismissing most dismissing 15 years had spent usual blunt way, orthodox economic theory as trivial. that most of his references were to his own previously to his own were that most of his references published papers. M allows there is a place in the world for modeling. there allows got to he says. “You’ve is always a problem,” “Simulation be very understand what the model is disciplined so you were and that crowd Forrester Professor to. sensitive oblivious to the r to and technological advancement economic forces, unanswered question: Are planetary overshoot and col- planetary question: Are overshoot unanswered lapse inevitable? O Limits to Growth Limits tial model that attracted the Club of Rome, he left the he left of Rome, the Club attracted that tial model to a team of students and fine-tuning actual assembly in their were who Meadows, Donella and Dennis led by a break. from just returning mid-20s and “He recalls. Meadows Dennis Switzerland,” from over was coming Club of Rome announced that the only one who didn’t and since I was the in two weeks, I became the director to do, work of years five have of the project.” I was translated into 30 languages. It painted a stark pic- painted a stark 30 languages. It was translated into had outcomes that the model of the catastrophic ture in future, but it also described an alternative predicted, in growth which humanity accepted less economic for a comfortable, sustainable, and endlessly return of a global The book became the rallying point future. envir outspoken also gained an increasingly It adherents. gr as such forces, shrift to the most significant economic did and prices. It effects of markets the self-regulating standing with economists Forrester’s not help Professor that he cited the a Columbia University economist, and two Harvard a Columbia University and Roberts economists named Marc University Ross. Leonard , . ws, to the om the Playboy ws and press e sudden and World Dynamics World Observer evie orrester naturally orrester wth, capital flo o ofessor F ester shied away fr r orr ofessor F r , and even a full-length article a full-length , and even in ershoot would be, and the mor ed worldwide attention. R v ved even more controversial than its predeces- controversial more even ved o ” (as they called it). P Although Professor Forrester believed the book had believed Forrester Although Professor The Club had been promised a $400,000 grant The Club had been promised That model generated a new book, astating would be the collapse of the natural envi- oup they would have to visit MIT for 10 days of study, oup they would have ut this time P mentions ranged from the London mentions ranged from B Singapore Times Singapore which pr sor. Most eye-opening were the unexpected conse- were eye-opening Most sor. can accept as a river Just quences of exponential growth. its times before a doubling of pollutants only so many the model ability to flush them out to sea is exhausted, only a limited suggested that the world could accept population number of doublings of the global human civilization would suffer. and of industrial output before The book suggested that the planet was far closer to than most people then believed. those limits reaching dra- the more of economic growth, The faster the level matic the o “everything necessary to guarantee no public notice,” “everything including 40 pages of equations, its message immedi- ately garner dev its support and ronment for human life and civilization. from the Volkswagen Foundation if they could come up Foundation Volkswagen the from the “problema- to solve project research with a relevant tique public stage. And although he had scribbled out the ini- natural resources, pollution, and food production. pollution, and natural resources, proposed using computers to simulate it, but computers to simulate it, told the using proposed gr his surprise, they To discussion. and presentations, he cut in half, accepted and, although the grant was later was able to start model of world on a dynamic work interactions, such as population gr

features the creative mind 9 features the creative mind 10 The imits to , it also oach in The L ucting and testing elec- ering the quality of their sus Thinking chetypes and a simplified w er y lo was the basis of one of these es constr ere about to break through into through about to break ere equir eral of the ar orrester’s former students had recast his former students had recast orrester’s ariety of situations. Growth archetypes; although it was famous as a archetypes; warning to industrial society corporate applied to many innovative which tended to hit a wall initiatives, and collapse just when it seemed that they w success. Another common archetype, charted Goals,” the course of “Eroding to com- many companies that respond petition b Dynamics v of Professor the mid-1980s, a group By F notation into a set of stock-and-flow common system patterns “archetypes”: up again and again in a that showed v really expect to convert them. The only expect to convert them. really them.” option is to outlive . That book, which has sold 2 million . ed sev , captur Jay Forrester confesses to a certain ambivalence Forrester Jay explanation of the system dynamics appr offerings, until they can no longer match their original then an instructor at Senge, Peter identity. premium MIT copies worldwide, is far easier to read than anything copies worldwide, is far easier to read it also makes a distinction But Forrester. Jay penned by “system between himself rejects: Forrester that Professor dynamics,” which r thinking,” which draws and “systems simulations, tronic to consider the same types of people into conversation systemic situations in depth. Fifth Discipline Fifth . imits L published in e still playing out as as an attack on the tant element of global policy The Limits to Growth The Limits onmentalist nvir mind-set, arguing, for example, that pollution emain an impor keptical E rowth Of his still-vocal critics, Professor Forrester says, “I don’t Forrester critics, Professor his still-vocal Of 2004 (three years after Donella Meadows passed away), Meadows after Donella years 2004 (three the authors conclude that most statistics (including those for global ) ar has remained runaway that growth the model predicted, restraints consistent with their model, and that growth should r levels and population growth rates have declined. But in declined. But rates have growth and population levels to update a 30-year mitigate the effects? Neither side has backed down. mitigate the effects? Neither Bjorn Lomborg, for example, set up much of his book The S to G

11 d n i m e v i t a e r c e h t s e r u t a e f work hasalsogainedexposure through thedevelopment sour people toProfessor Forrester’s thinkingthan anyother “Fieldbooks” thatfollowed, have probably exposed more aid, ratherthantoonlydevelop physicians.” term strategy. It isalsousefultotrainpeople todofirst long- it takesyears, andIgrew impatientwiththisvery ulation models,”Dr. Senge says.“Ithinkthat’s great, but gr dynamics. “J thinking topeoplewhomaynever goontosystem justified, butthere isstillavalue inintroducing systems who candothat.” its behaviorby lookingatit,andthere’s simplynobody a diagramonthepage. You presume you canunderstand high-or says, “isitallows you tomisjudgeasystem. You have this trouble withsystemsthinking,”he archetypes. “The assumptions thatwent intothemodelsunderlying appointed thatthebookdoesn about Dr. Senge’s book.He isgladofitssuccess,butdis- ound, trainingpeoplewhocandevelop advanced sim- ce, including his o The F F or hispar der, nonlinear, dynamicsysteminfront ofyou as ifth Discipline ay hasalwaysbeenfocusedonthehigh t, D r . Senge sayshismentor’s concernis , andtheseriesofmultiple-author wn books.P ’ t adequatelyexplore the r ofessor F orr ester’s br Jay Forrester andhiswife,Susan, live inasimple, The Pessimist’s Optimist P of graphicsoftware programs thatallow peoplewithout in 1952.Here, inthebasement,Professor Forrester D school classroom. One systemdynamicsmodel,taughtby N.H., bringssystemdynamicsmodelingtothehigh RichmondofIseethe lateBarry Systems, ofLebanon, including P systems modelersinbusinessandgraduateschools, Inc. ofHarvard, Mass., isapowerful toolusedtodayby Vensim, produced by Robert Eberlein of Ventana Systems pharmaceuticals inthebodyasastock. showing anintravenous dripasaflow, andaccumulated demonstrates how work inthehumanbodyby drugs tions toanalyze problems inpretty deepways.” visual, theyallow goodwithequa- kidswhoare notvery seen ittaughtto8thgraders.Because themodelsare says Ms.Fisher. “I’ve taughtthistofreshmen, andI’ve h.D.-lev iana F o wn-shingled house inConcor “ You don’t needcalculus, justfirst-year algebra,” isher inaP el mathskillstocreate sophisticatedmodels. rofessor Forrester himself. Stella, created by or tland, Ore., publichighschool, d thattheypur chased

strategy+business issue 40 works on his most ambitious computer model: a general such complacency. Like Thoreau, he expresses little con- theory of economic behavior, which he began to develop fidence in the capability of his fellow human beings. 25 years ago. It incorporates the economic long-wave Pressed to think about what he would like to leave theory articulated by Russian economist Nikolai behind, the acerbically understated prophet of unin- Kondratiev in 1926, discredited in the 1970s, and tended consequences replies, “Well, when we begin to just now making a comeback in economic circles. see people taking a new look at the way corporations are (Kondratiev himself was imprisoned by Josef Stalin in designed and the way countries are run — that would be 1930, and executed in 1938, apparently because of his satisfactory.” + association with Leon Trotsky.) To Professor Forrester, Reprint No. 05308 the long wave is generated by the same sort of produc- tion shortages and gluts in capital goods that he ob- served in the early 1960s with toasters and refrigerators, but played out on a much longer time scale. Resources Professor Forrester’s model suggests that the lifestyle Mark Buchanan, “Supermodels to the Rescue,” s+b, Spring 2005, afforded by historically low interest rates, the huge cur- www.strategy-business.com/press/article/05106: An overview of the rent account deficit, and the massive foreign purchases current state of computer modeling in business.

of U.S. assets, from treasury bonds to real estate, might Diana Fisher, Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course (Isee f e come crashing to a halt when overseas investors lose con- Systems, 2005): Introduction for educators using models in the classroom. a t u fidence. Does that mean the world is overdue for a deep, Lawrence M. Fisher, “The Paradox of Charles Handy,” s+b, Fall 2003, r e 1930s-style depression? Professor Forrester believes this www.strategy-business.com/press/article/03309: Jay Forrester’s article “A s

New Corporate Design” anticipated the ideas of visionary creative mind t h

is probable, but he is undismayed. Charles Handy… e

“People hate depressions because of the huge c Andrea Gabor, “Post-’s Drop-out Prophet,” s+b, Fall 2004, r e human problems they create, but they are also the win- www.strategy-business.com/press/article/04308: …and controversial a t

post-Harvard creative mind Shoshana Zuboff. i dows of opportunity to new technology, and they’re the v e times when the stagnation and inefficiencies of the old Jay Forrester, Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester (Pegasus , m

1975): Jay Forrester’s most critical papers, including “A New Corporate i corporate get liquidated,” Professor Forrester n

Design” and a summary of his industrial research. d says. “That clears the deck for a clean start and a more Jay Forrester, Industrial Dynamics (1961), Urban Dynamics (1969), World vibrant and efficient economy.” Dynamics (1971), all from Pegasus Press: The great Forrester trilogy, still Though his name has been linked with corporate full of surprises and insights after more than 30 years. folly, urban decay, global decline, and now with likely Donella H. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows, Limits to economic depression, Professor Forrester says he Growth: The 30-Year Update (Chelsea Green, 2004): The most current overview of global potential for overshoot and collapse. remains positive in his outlook. “I consider myself an 12 optimist, because I feel that with sufficient understand- Keith Oliver, Dermot Shorten, and Harriet Engel, “Supply Chain Strategy: Back to Basics,” s+b, Fall 2004, www.strategy-business.com/ ing and education, these issues can and will be dealt press/article/04313: The management of complex supply chain systems. with.” And even the most hardened pessimist would , The Fifth Discipline (Doubleday, 1990): Business-savvy best- have to admit that the dire predictions Professor seller that introduces key systems thinking concepts and practice.

Forrester has made have often failed to come true. Some Peter Senge et al., Schools That Learn (Doubleday, 2000): Application of corporations (GE included) have managed to escape the system dynamics and other “learning ” ideas to education, worst effects of their supply chain problems. Most cities with an essay by Jay Forrester. (in the industrialized world, at least) are better today John Sterman, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000): The most accessible and up- than they were in the 1960s. The economy, while stum- to-date guide to system dynamics for business planning and development. bling, has not yet fallen apart. And the global environ- MIT System Dynamics in Education Project, ment still supports human life. Perhaps we are indeed http://sysdyn.clexchange.org: The project is designed to help educators heading for overshoot-and-collapse scenarios in all these prepare tomorrow’s complex thinkers. arenas; or perhaps Jay Forrester’s models have served a System Dynamics Web site, www.systemdynamics.org: The System subtler purpose, by warning society of the unintended Dynamics Society home page, a starting point for resources and conferences. consequences of its actions just in time for humans to make decisions that save themselves. Ventana Systems Web site, www.vensim.com, and Isee Systems Web site, www.iseesystems.com: Access to software for modeling systems. Professor Forrester himself would disagree with