VOLUME 16

NUMBER 9 THE ® NOVEMBER THINKER 2005 BUILDING SHARED UNDERSTANDING

SPECIAL ISSUE: MOVING TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

PLEASE FORWARD THIS ISSUE TO YOUR FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES.

With the tragic impact of the recent natural disasters and the growing evidence of global warm- ing, climate change has come to the forefront as a major concern and challenge for the world’s citizenry.While the realization of the scope of the problem is new to many, dynamicists have been documenting the troubling trends for more than 30 years. In 1972, a group at MIT created a computer model that projected the alarming consequences of continued unchecked growth.The resulting book, (Universe Books, 1972), shocked the world and became an international best seller.

Authors (deceased), , and Jørgen Randers recently published a third edition, Limits to Growth:The 30-Year Update (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2004). In up- dating the model and book, they found that the trends documented three decades ago were largely unchanged and that humankind continues on a path toward environmental and social collapse. But rather than offering a series of grim prospects for the future, the authors conclude the book with an optimistic call to action and a surprising set of “tools” for making the transition to a more sustainable way of living on the planet.

Thanks to the generosity of Chelsea Green Publishing(www.chelseagreen.com), in this issue of The Systems Thinker, we are publishing Chapter 8 of The Limits to Growth:The 30-Year Update in its entirety (p. 2).We’ve also included recent comments by Dennis Meadows about the role of collaboration in finding and implementing solutions to big problems (p. 10). Because any large-scale change effort requires a critical mass of engaged and interested people working together, we would like to encourage you to forward this special issue to your colleagues, friends, members of community groups and religious organizations—anyone you can think of who might respond to the call to action.True change begins when each of us decides to do something differently.

Copyright © 2005 Pegasus Communications, Inc. (www.pegasuscom.com) All rights reserved. For permission to distribute copies of this newsletter in any form, please contact us at [email protected]. FEATURE

TOOLS FOR THE TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABILITY

BY DONELLA MEADOWS, JØRGEN RANDERS, AND DENNIS MEADOWS

Chapter 8 of Limits to Growth:The 30-Year Update (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2004) Reprinted by permission.

We must be careful not to succumb to Everywhere we find folks who things to do:Work out your own fru- despair, for there is still the odd glimmer of care about the earth, about other peo- gally elegant lifestyle, have at most hope. —Edouard Saouma, 1993 ple, and about the welfare of their two children, argue for higher prices children and grandchildren.They rec- on fossil energy (to encourage energy ognize the human misery and the efficiency and stimulate development Can we move nations and people in the direction of sustainability? Such a move environmental degradation around of renewable energy), work with love would be a modification of society compa- them, and they question whether poli- and partnership to help one family lift rable in scale to only two other changes: cies that promote more growth along itself out of poverty, find your own the Agricultural Revolution of the late the same old lines can make things “right livelihood,” care well for one Neolithic and the Industrial Revolution of better. Many of them have a feeling, piece of land, do whatever you can to the past two centuries.Those revolutions often hard for them to articulate, that oppose systems that oppress people or were gradual, spontaneous, and largely unconscious.This one will have to be a fully the world is headed in the wrong abuse the earth, run for election conscious operation, guided by the best direction and that preventing disaster yourself. foresight that science can provide....If we will require some big changes.They All these actions will help.And, actually do it, the undertaking will be are willing to work for those changes, of course, they are not enough. Sus- absolutely unique in humanity’s stay on the if only they could believe their efforts tainability and sufficiency and equity Earth. —William D. Ruckelshaus, 1989 would make a positive difference. require structural change; they require They ask: What can I do? What can gov- a revolution, not in the political sense, ernments do? What can corporations do? like the French Revolution, but in What can schools, religions, media do? the much more profound sense of the e have been writing about, talk- W What can citizens, producers, consumers, agricultural or industrial revolutions. ing about, and working toward parents do? Recycling is important, but by itself it sustainability for over three decades Experiments guided by those will not bring about a revolution. now.We have had the privilege of questions are more important than What will? In search of an knowing thousands of colleagues in any specific answers, though answers answer, we have found it helpful to every part of the world who work in abound.There are “50 simple things try to understand the first two great their own ways, with their own tal- you can do to save the planet.” Buy revolutions in human culture, insofar ents, in their own societies toward a an energy-efficient car, for one. Recy- as historians can reconstruct them. sustainable society.When we act at cle your bottles and cans, vote knowl- the official, institutional level and edgeably in elections—if you are The First Two Revolutions: when we listen to political leaders, we among those people in the world Agriculture and Industry often feel frustrated.When we work blessed with cars, bottles, cans, or About 10,000 years ago the human with individuals, we usually feel elections.There are also not-so-simple population, after millennia of evolu- encouraged. tion, had reached the huge (for the time) number of about 10 million. Model These people lived as nomadic The World3 model is a computer simulation of interactions among population, indus- hunter-gatherers, but in some regions trial growth, food production, and limits in the of the Earth. It was created their numbers had begun to over- in 1970-1972 by a project team within the Group at MIT’s Sloan whelm the once abundant plants and School of Management to analyze the long-term causes and consequences of growth in game.To adapt to the problem of dis- the world’s population and material economy.The study was commissioned by the Club appearing wild resources they did two of Rome. Dennis Meadows, then on the faculty at MIT, assembled and directed the 16- person project tream. Based on the scenarios that emerged from the model, Donella things. Some of them intensified their Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jørgen Randers wrote the bestselling and highly influ- migratory lifestyle.They moved out ential book Limits to Growth (Universe Books, 1972). of their ancestral homes in Africa and the Middle East and populated other

2 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® VOL. 16, NO. 9 www.pegasuscom.com © 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS areas of the game-rich world. trolled combustion.These problems They must demand the right to pro- Others started domesticating ani- were solved relatively quickly, result- duce, buy, and sell those commodities mals, cultivating plants, and staying in ing in concentrations of labor around without outside regulation or inter- one place. That was a totally new idea. mines and mills.The process elevated ference....As wants multiplied, as Simply by staying put, the proto- technology and commerce to a markets grew more and more far- farmers altered the face of the planet, prominent position in human soci- flung, the bond between humans and the thoughts of humankind, and the ety—above religion and ethics. the rest of nature was reduced to the shape of society in ways they could Again everything changed in barest instrumentalism.”1 never have foreseen. ways that no one could have imag- That bare instrumentalism led to For the first time it made sense to ined. Machines, not land, incredible productivity and own land. People who didn’t have to became the central a world that now sup- carry all their possessions on their means of production. ports, at varying levels backs could accumulate things, and Feudalism gave way of sufficiency, 6,000 some could accumulate more than to capitalism and million people—more others.The ideas of wealth, status, to capitalism’s than 600 times the inheritance, trade, money, and power dissenting population existing were born. Some people could live offshoot, before the agricultural on excess food produced by others. communism. Roads, revolution. Far-flung They could become full-time tool- railroads, factories, and markets and swelling makers, musicians, scribes, priests, sol- smokestacks appeared on the land- demands drive environmental diers, athletes, or kings.Thus arose, for scape. Cities swelled.Again the exploitation from the poles to the better or worse, guilds, orchestras, change was a mixed blessing. Factory tropics, from the mountaintops to the libraries, temples, armies, competitive labor was even harder and more ocean depths.The success of the games, dynasties, and cities. demeaning than farm labor.The air industrial revolution, like the previous As its inheritors, we think of the and waters near the new factories successes of hunting-gathering and of agricultural revolution as a great step turned unspeakably filthy.The stan- agriculture, eventually created its own forward.At the time it was probably a dard of living for most of the indus- scarcity, not only of game, not only of mixed blessing. Many anthropologists trial workforce was far below that of land, not only of fuels and metals, but think that agriculture was not a better a farmer. But farmland was not avail- of the total carrying capacity of the way of life, but a necessary one to able; work in a factory was. global environment. Humankind’s accommodate increasing populations. It is hard for people alive today ecological footprint had once more Settled farmers got more food from a to appreciate how profoundly the exceeded what was sustainable. Suc- hectare than hunter-gatherers did, but industrial revolution changed human cess created the necessity for another the food was of lower nutritional thought, because that thought still revolution. quality and less variety, and it required shapes our perceptions. In 1988 histo- much more work to produce. Farmers rian Donald Worster described the The Next Revolution: became vulnerable in ways nomads philosophical impact of industrialism Sustainability never were to weather, disease, pests, perhaps as well as any of its inheritors It is as impossible now for anyone to invasion by outsiders, and oppression and practitioners can: describe the world that could evolve from their emerging ruling classes. “The capitalists . . . promised that, from a sustainability revolution as it People who did not move away from through the technological domination would have been for the farmers of their own wastes experienced of the earth, they could deliver a 6000 BC to foresee the corn and soy- humankind’s first chronic pollution. more fair, rational, efficient and pro- bean fields of modern Iowa, or for an Nevertheless, agriculture was a ductive life for everyone....Their English coal miner of AD 1800 to successful response to wildlife scarcity. method was simply to free individual imagine an automated Toyota assem- It permitted yet more population enterprise from the bonds of tradi- bly line. Like the other great revolu- growth, which added up over centuries tional hierarchy and community, tions, the coming sustainability to an enormous increase, from 10 mil- whether the bondage derived from revolution will also change the face of lion to 800 million people by 1750. other humans or the earth . . .That the land and the foundations of The larger population created new meant teaching everyone to treat the human identities, institutions, and cul- scarcities, especially in land and energy. earth, as well as each other, with a tures. Like the previous revolutions, it Another revolution was necessary. frank, energetic, self-assertiveness. . . . will take centuries to unfold fully— The industrial revolution began People must . . . think constantly in though it is already under way. in England with the substitution of terms of making money.They must Of course no one knows how to abundant coal for vanishing trees.The regard everything around them—the bring about such a revolution.There use of coal raised practical problems land, its natural resources, their own is not a checklist:“To accomplish a of earthmoving, mine construction, labor—as potential commodities that global paradigm shift, follow these 20 water pumping, transport, and con- might fetch a profit in the market. steps.” Like the great revolutions that

© 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS 781.398.9700 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® NOVEMBER 2005 3 came before, this one can’t be planned Only innovators, however—by tools are not optional; they are essen- or dictated. It won’t follow a list of perceiving the need for new informa- tial characteristics for any society that fiats from government or a proclama- tion, rules, and goals, communicating hopes to survive over the long term. tion from computer modelers.The about them, and trying them out— We present them here again in our sustainability revolution will be can make the changes that transform concluding chapter “not as the ways organic. It will arise from the visions, systems.This important point is to work toward sustainability, but as insights, experiments, and actions of expressed clearly in a quote that is some ways.” billions of people.The burden of widely attributed to , “We are a bit hesitant to discuss making it happen is not on the shoul- “Never deny the power of a small them,” we said in 1992,“ because we ders of any one person or group. No group of committed individuals to are not experts in their use and one will get the credit, but everyone change the world. Indeed that is the because they require the use of words can contribute. only thing that ever has.” that do not come easily from the Our systems training and our We have learned the hard way mouths or word processors of scien- own work in the world have affirmed that it is difficult to live a life of tists.They are considered too ‘unsci- for us two properties of complex sys- material moderation within a system entific’ to be taken seriously in the tems germane to the sort of profound that expects, exhorts, and rewards cynical public arena.” revolution we are discussing here. consumption. But one can move a What are the tools we First, information is the key to long way in the direction of modera- approached so cautiously? transformation.That does not neces- tion. It is not easy to use energy effi- They are: visioning, networking, sarily mean more information, better ciently in an economy that produces truth-telling, learning, and loving. statistics, bigger , or the energy-inefficient products. But one It seems like a feeble list, given World Wide Web, though all of these can search out, or if necessary invent, the enormity of the changes required. may play a part. It means relevant, com- more efficient ways of doing things, But each of these exists within a web pelling, select, powerful, timely, accurate and in the process make those ways of positive loops.Thus their persistent information flowing in new ways to more accessible to others. and consistent application initially by new recipients, carrying new content, Above all, it is difficult to put a relatively small group of people suggesting new rules and goals (rules forth new information in a system would have the potential to produce and goals that are themselves infor- that is structured to hear only old enormous change—even to challenge mation).When its information flows information. Just try, sometime, to the present system, perhaps helping to are changed, any system will behave question in public the value of more produce a revolution. differently.The policy of glasnost, for growth, or even to make a distinction “The transition to a sustainable example—the simple opening of between growth and development, society might be helped,” we said in information channels that had long and you will see what we mean. It 1992,“by the simple use of words like been closed in the Soviet Union— takes courage and clarity to challenge these more often, with sincerity and guaranteed the rapid transformation an established system. But it can be without apology, in the information of Eastern Europe beyond anyone’s done. streams of the world.” But we used expectations.The old system had In our own search for ways to them with apology ourselves, know- been held in place by tight control of encourage the peaceful restructuring ing how most people would receive information. Letting go of that con- of a system that naturally resists its them. trol triggered total system restructur- own transformation, we have tried Many of us feel uneasy about ing (turbulent and unpredictable, but many tools.The obvious ones are relying on such “soft” tools when the inevitable). rational analysis, data gathering, sys- future of our civilization is at stake, Second, systems strongly resist tems thinking, computer modeling, particularly since we do not know changes in their information flows, and the clearest words we can find. how to summon them up, in our- especially in their rules and goals. It is Those are tools that anyone trained in selves or in others. So we dismiss not surprising that those who benefit science and economics would auto- them and turn the conversation to from the current system actively matically grasp. Like recycling, they recycling or emission trading or oppose such revision. Entrenched are useful, necessary, and they are not wildlife preserves or some other nec- political, economic, and religious enough. essary but insufficient part of the sus- cliques can constrain almost entirely We don’t know what will be tainability revolution—but at least a the attempts of an individual or small enough. But we would like to con- part we know how to handle. group to operate by different rules or clude by mentioning five other tools So let’s talk about the tools we to attain goals different from those we have found helpful.We introduced don’t yet know how to use, because sanctioned by the system. Innovators and discussed this list for the first time humanity must quickly master them. can be ignored, marginalized, in our 1992 book [: ridiculed, denied promotions or Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning Visioning resources or public voices.They can a Sustainable Future]. Our experience Visioning means imagining, at first be literally or figuratively snuffed out. since then has affirmed that these five generally and then with increasing

4 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® VOL. 16, NO. 9 www.pegasuscom.com © 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS specificity, what you really want.That each of these abstractions has embod- serving society than in winning is, what you really want, not what ied itself in an imposing apparatus in elections. someone has taught you to want, and the community, and how timber, • An economy that is a means, not an not what you have learned to be will- brick, lime, and stone have flown into end, one that serves the welfare of the ing to settle for.Visioning means tak- convenient shape, obedient to the environment, rather than vice versa. ing off the constraints of “feasibility,” master idea reigning in the minds of • Efficient, renewable energy systems. of disbelief and past disappointments, many persons. . . . • Efficient, closed-loop materials and letting your mind dwell upon its It follows, of course, that the least systems. most noble, uplifting, treasured change in the man will change his • Technical design that reduces emis- dreams. circumstances; the least enlargement sions and waste to a minimum, and Some people, especially young of ideas, the least mitigation of his social agreement not to produce people, engage in visioning with feelings in respect to other men . . . emissions or waste that technology enthusiasm and ease. Some find the would cause the most striking and nature can’t handle. exercise of visioning frightening or changes of external things.”2 • Regenerative agriculture that painful, because a glowing picture of builds soils, uses natural mechanisms what could be makes what is all the to restore nutrients and control more intolerable. Some people never pests, and produces abundant, un- Vision without action is useless. admit their visions, for fear of being contaminated food. thought impractical or “unrealistic.” But action without vision is • The preservation of ecosystems in They would find this paragraph their variety, with human cultures liv- directionless and feeble. uncomfortable to read, if they were ing in harmony with those ecosys- willing to read it at all.And some Vision is absolutely necessary tems; therefore, high diversity of both people have been so crushed by their nature and culture, and human appre- to guide and motivate. experience that they can only explain ciation for that diversity. why any vision is impossible.That’s • Flexibility, innovation (social as well fine; skeptics are needed, too.Vision as technical), and intellectual chal- needs to be disciplined by skepticism. A sustainable world can never be lenge.A flourishing of science, a con- We should say immediately, for fully realized until it is widely envi- tinuous enlargement of human the sake of the skeptics, that we do sioned.The vision must be built up knowledge. not believe vision makes anything by many people before it is complete • Greater understanding of whole happen.Vision without action is use- and compelling.As a way of encour- systems as an essential part of each less. But action without vision is aging others to join in the process, person’s education. directionless and feeble.Vision is we’ll list here some of what we see • Decentralization of economic absolutely necessary to guide and when we let ourselves imagine a sus- power, political influence, and scien- motivate. More than that, vision, when tainable society we would like to live tific expertise. widely shared and firmly kept in sight, in—as opposed to one we would be • Political structures that permit a does bring into being new systems. willing to settle for.This is by no balance between short-term and We mean that literally.Within the means a definitive list.We include it long-term considerations; some way limits of space, time, materials, and here only to invite you to develop of exerting political pressure now on energy, visionary human intentions and enlarge it. behalf of our grandchildren. can bring forth not only new infor- • Sustainability, efficiency, sufficiency, • High-level skills on the part of citi- mation, new feedback loops, new equity, beauty, and community as the zens and governments in the arts of behavior, new knowledge, and new highest social values. nonviolent conflict resolution. technology, but also new institutions, • Material sufficiency and security for • Media that reflect the world’s diver- new physical structures, and new all.Therefore, by individual choice as sity and at the same time unite cul- powers within human beings. Ralph well as communal norms, low birth tures with relevant, accurate, timely, Waldo Emerson recognized this pro- rates and stable populations. unbiased, and intelligent information, found truth 150 years ago: • Work that dignifies people instead presented in its historic and whole- “Every nation and every man of demeaning them. Some way of system context. instantly surround themselves with a providing incentives for people to • Reasons for living and for thinking material apparatus which exactly cor- give their best to society and to be well of ourselves that do not involve responds to their moral state, or their rewarded for doing so, while ensuring the accumulation of material things. state of thought. Observe how every that everyone will be provided for truth and every error, each a thought sufficiently under any circumstances. Networking of some man’s mind, clothes itself • Leaders who are honest, respectful, We could not do our work without with societies, houses, cities, language, intelligent, humble, and more inter- networks. Most of the networks we ceremonies, newspapers. Observe the ested in doing their jobs than in belong to are informal.They have ideas of the present day . . . see how keeping their jobs, more interested in small budgets, if any, and few of them

© 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS 781.398.9700 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® NOVEMBER 2005 5 appear on rosters of world organiza- keeping itself within global limits. will not only help you learn, but also tions.3 They are almost invisible, but About local networks we can say lit- allow you to pass your learning on to their effects are not negligible. Infor- tle here; our localities are different others. mal networks carry information in from yours. One role of local net- the same way as formal institutions works is to help reestablish the sense Truth-Telling do, and often more effectively.They of community and relation to place We are no more certain of the truth are the natural home of new informa- that has been largely lost since the than anyone is. But we often know an tion, and out of them new system industrial revolution. untruth when we hear one. Many structures can evolve.4 When it comes to global net- untruths are deliberate, understood as Some of our networks are very works, we would like to make a plea such by both speaker and listeners. local, some are international. Some that they be truly global.The means They are put forth to manipulate, lull, are electronic, some involve people of participation in international infor- or entice, to postpone action, to jus- looking each other in the face mation streams are as badly tify self-serving action, to gain or pre- every day.Whatever their form, distributed as are serve power, or to deny an they are made up of people who the means of uncomfortable reality. share a common production. Lies distort the information interest in some There are more stream.A system cannot function well aspect of life, who telephones in if its information streams are cor- stay in touch and pass Tokyo, it has rupted by lies. One of the most around data and tools been said, than important tenets of is and ideas and in all of Africa. that information should not be dis- encouragement, who like That must be torted, delayed, or sequestered. and respect and support each even more true of “All of humanity is in peril,” said other. One of the most important computers, fax machines, airline con- Buckminster Fuller,“if each one of us purposes of a network is simply to nections, and invitations to interna- does not dare, now and henceforth, remind its members that they are not tional meetings. But once more the always to tell only the truth and all alone. wonder of human inventiveness seems the truth, and to do so promptly— A network is nonhierarchical. It to provide a surprising solution in the right now.”5 Whenever you speak to is a web of connections among form of the Web and cheap access anyone, on the street, at work, to a equals, held together not by force, devices. crowd, and especially to a child, you obligation, material incentive, or One could argue that Africa and can endeavor to counter a lie or social contract, but by shared values other underrepresented parts of the affirm a truth.You can deny the idea and the understanding that some world should attend first to their that having more things makes one a tasks can be accomplished together needs for many things other than better person.You can question the that could never be accomplished computers and Web access.We dis- notion that more for the rich will separately. agree; the needs of the underprivi- help the poor.The more you can We know of networks of farmers leged cannot be effectively counter misinformation, the more who share organic pest control meth- communicated, nor can the world manageable our society will become. ods.There are networks of environ- benefit from their contributions, Here are some common biases mental journalists,“green” architects, unless their voices can be heard. Some and simplifications, verbal traps, and computer modelers, game designers, of the greatest gains in material and popular untruths that we run into fre- land trusts, consumer cooperatives. energy efficiency have come in the quently in discussing limits to growth. There are thousands and thousands of design of communications equip- We think they need to be pointed networks that developed as people ment. It is possible within a sustain- out and avoided, if there is ever to be with common purposes found each able ecological footprint for everyone clear thinking about the human other. Some networks become so to have the opportunity for global as economy and its relationship to a busy and essential that they evolve well as local networking.We must finite Earth. into formal organizations with offices close the “Digital Divide.” and budgets, but most come and go as If some part of the sustainability Not: A warning about the future needed.The advent of the World revolution interests you, you can find is a prediction of doom. Wide Web certainly has facilitated and or form a network of others who But: A warning about the future accelerated the formation and main- share your particular interests.The is a recommendation to fol- tenance of networks. network will help you discover low a different path. Networks dedicated to sustain- where to go for information, what ability at both the local and the publications and tools are available, Not: The environment is a luxury global levels are especially needed to where to find administrative and or a competing demand or a create a sustainable society that har- financial support, and who can help commodity that people will monizes with local ecosystems while with specific tasks.The right network buy when they can afford it.

6 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® VOL. 16, NO. 9 www.pegasuscom.com © 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS But: The environment is the material deprivation. admit and bear the pain of source of all life and every And: We must approach our prob- the present, while keeping a economy. Opinion polls typi- lems as human beings and steady eye on a vision of a cally show that the public is bring more to bear on them better future. willing to pay more for a than just technology. healthy environment. Not: The World3 model, or any Not: The market system will auto- other model, is right or Not: Change is sacrifice, and it matically bring us the future wrong. should be avoided. we want. But: All models, including the But: Change is challenge, and it is But: We must decide for ourselves ones in our heads, are a little necessary. what future we want.Then right, much too simple, and we can use the market sys- mostly wrong. How do we Not: Stopping growth will lock tem, along with many other proceed in such a way as to the poor in their poverty. organizational devices, to test our models and learn But: It is the avarice and indiffer- achieve it. where they are right and ence of the rich that lock the wrong? How do we speak to poor into poverty.The poor each other as fellow modelers need new attitudes among Whatever you do, do it humbly. with an appropriate mixture the rich; then there will be Do it not as immutable policy, of skepticism and respect? growth specifically geared to How do we stop playing serve their needs. but as experiment. right–wrong games with Use your action, whatever it is, each other and start design- Not: Everyone should be brought ing right–wrong tests for our up to the material level of to learn. models against the real the richest countries. world? But: There is no possibility of raising material consumption Not: Industry is the cause of all That last challenge, sorting out levels for everyone to the problems, or the cure. and testing models, brings us to the levels now enjoyed by the Nor: Government is the cause or topic of learning. rich. Everyone should have the cure. their fundamental material Nor: Environmentalists are the Learning needs satisfied. Material cause or the cure. Visioning, networking, and truth- needs beyond this level Nor: Any other group [economists telling are useless if they do not should be satisfied only if it is come to mind] is the cause inform action.There are many things possible, for all, within a sus- or the cure. to do to bring about a sustainable tainable ecological footprint. But: All people and institutions world. New farming methods have to play their role within the be worked out. New businesses have Not: All growth is good, without large system structure. In a to be started and old ones have to be question, discrimination, or system that is structured for redesigned to reduce their footprint. investigation. , all players deliber- Land has to be restored, parks pro- Nor: All growth is bad. ately or inadvertently con- tected, energy systems transformed, But: What is needed is not tribute to that overshoot. In a international agreements reached. growth, but development. system that is structured for Laws have to be passed and others Insofar as development sustainability, industries, gov- repealed. Children have to be taught, requires physical expansion, it ernments, environmentalists, and so do adults. Films have to be should be equitable, afford- and most especially econo- made, music played, books published, able, and sustainable, with all mists will play essential roles Web sites established, people coun- real costs counted. in contributing to sustain- seled, groups led, subsidies removed, ability. sustainability indicators developed, Not: Technology will solve all and prices corrected to portray full problems. Not: Unrelieved pessimism. costs. Nor: Technology does nothing but Nor: Sappy optimism. All people will find their own cause problems. But: The resolve to tell the truth best role in all this doing.We wouldn’t But: We need to encourage tech- about both the successes and presume to prescribe a specific role nologies that will reduce the failures of the present and the for anyone but ourselves. But we ecological footprint, increase potentials and obstacles in would make one suggestion:What- efficiency, enhance resources, the future. ever you do, do it humbly. Do it not improve signals, and end And above all: The courage to as immutable policy, but as experi-

© 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS 781.398.9700 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® NOVEMBER 2005 7 ment. Use your action, whatever it is, and acknowledge mistakes. transformation that permits the best to learn. No one can be free to learn with- of human nature, rather than the The depths of human ignorance out patience and forgiveness. But in a worst, to be expressed and nurtured. are much more profound than most condition of overshoot, there is not Many people have recognized that of us are willing to admit.This is much time for patience and forgive- necessity and that opportunity. For especially so at a time when the ness. Finding the right balance between example, John Maynard Keynes wrote global economy is coming together as the apparent opposites of urgency and in 1932: a more integrated whole than it has patience, accountability and forgiveness “The problem of want and ever been, when that economy is is a task that requires compassion, poverty and the economic struggle pressing against the limits of a won- humility, clearheadedness, honesty, between classes and nations is nothing drously complex planet, and when and—that hardest of words, that seem- but a frightful muddle, a transitory wholly new ways of thinking are ingly scarcest of all resources—love. and unnecessary muddle. For the called for.At this time, no one knows Western World already has the enough. No leaders, no matter how resource and the technique, if we Learning means the willingness authoritative they pretend to be, could create the organization to use understand the situation. No policy to go slowly, to try things out, them, capable of reducing the Eco- should be imposed wholesale upon nomic Problem, which now absorbs and to collect information the whole world. If you cannot afford our moral and material energy, to a to lose, do not gamble. about the effects of actions, position of secondary importance.... Learning means the willingness Thus the . . . day is not far off including information that the to go slowly, to try things out, and to when the Economic Problem will collect information about the effects action is not working. take the back seat where it belongs, of actions, including the crucial but and . . . the arena of the heart and not always welcome information that head will be occupied . . . by our real the action is not working. One can’t Loving problems—the problems of life and of learn without making mistakes, telling One is not allowed in the industrial human relations, of creation and the truth about them, and moving on. culture to speak about love, except in behaviour and religion.”7 Learning means exploring a new path the most romantic and trivial sense of Aurelio Peccei, the great industrial with vigor and courage, being open the word.Anyone who calls upon the leader who wrote constantly about to other people’s explorations of capacity of people to practice broth- problems of growth and limits, eco- other paths, and being willing to erly and sisterly love, love of humanity nomics and environment, resources switch paths if one is found that leads as a whole, love of nature and of our and governance, never failed to con- more directly to the goal. nurturing planet, is more likely to be clude that the answers to the world’s The world’s leaders have lost ridiculed than to be taken seriously. problems begin with a “new human- both the habit of learning and the The deepest difference between opti- ism.” In 1981 he expressed this view: freedom to learn. Somehow a politi- mists and pessimists is their position in “The humanism consonant with cal system has evolved in which the the debate about whether human our epoch must replace and reverse voters expect leaders to have all the beings are able to operate collectively principles and norms that we have answers, that assigns only a few peo- from a basis of love. In a society that heretofore regarded as untouchable, ple to be leaders, and that brings systematically develops individualism, but that have become inapplicable, or them down quickly if they suggest competitiveness, and short-term focus, discordant with our purpose; it must unpleasant remedies.This perverse the pessimists are in the vast majority. encourage the rise of new value sys- system undermines the leadership Individualism and shortsighted- tems to redress our inner balance, and capacity of the people and the learn- ness are the greatest problems of the of new spiritual, ethical, philosophical, ing capacity of the leaders. current , we think, and social, political, aesthetic, and artistic It’s time for us to do some truth- the deepest cause of unsustainability. motivations to fill the emptiness of telling on this issue.The world’s lead- Love and compassion institutionalized our life; it must be capable of restor- ers do not know any better than in collective solutions is the better ing within us . . . love, friendship, anyone else how to bring about a sus- alternative.A culture that does not understanding, solidarity, a spirit of tainable society; most of them don’t believe in, discuss, and develop these sacrifice, conviviality; and it must even know it’s necessary to do so.A better human qualities suffers from a make us understand that the more sustainability revolution requires each tragic limitation in its options.“How closely these qualities link us to other person to act as a learning leader at good a society does human nature forms of life and to our brothers and some level, from family to commu- permit?” asked psychologist Abraham sisters everywhere in the world, the nity to nation to world.And it Maslow.“How good a human nature more we shall gain.”8 requires each of us to support leaders does society permit?”6 It is not easy to practice love, by allowing them to admit uncer- The sustainability revolution will friendship, generosity, understanding, or tainty, conduct honest experiments, have to be, above all, a collective solidarity within a system whose rules,

8 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® VOL. 16, NO. 9 www.pegasuscom.com © 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS goals, and information streams are there’s not a chance of solving them. Footnotes geared for lesser human qualities. But Both of those answers are based, 1. Donald Worster, editor, The Ends of we try, and we urge you to try. Be of course, on mental models.The truth the Earth (Cambridge: Cambridge patient with yourself and others as you of the matter is that no one knows. University Press, 1988), 11–12. and they confront the difficulty of a We have said many times that the 2. Ralph Waldo Emerson, Lecture on changing world. Understand and world faces not a preordained future, “War,” delivered in Boston, March empathize with inevitable resistance; but a choice.The choice is between 1838. Reprinted in Emerson’s Com- there is resistance, some clinging to the different mental models, which lead plete Works, vol. 11 (Boston: ways of unsustainability, within each of logically to different scenarios. One Houghton Mifflin, 1887), 177. us. Seek out and trust in the best mental model says that this world for 3. Examples of networks known to the human instincts in yourself and in all practical purposes has no limits. authors and in their field of interest everyone. Listen to the cynicism Choosing that mental model will are the Balaton Group around you and have compas- encourage extractive busi- (www.unh.edu/ipssr/Balaton.html), sion for those who believe ness as usual and take the Northeast Organic Farming Associa- tion (NOFA), Center for a New in it, but don’t believe it human economy even American Dream (CNAD; yourself. farther beyond the www.newdream.org), Greenlist Humanity cannot limits.The result will (www.peacestore.us/Public/Green- triumph in the adven- be collapse. list), Greenclips ture of reducing the Another mental (www.greenclips.com), Northern human footprint to a model says that the Forest Alliance (www.northernfore- sustainable level if that limits are real and close, stalliance.org), Land Trust Alliance (www.lta.org), International Simula- adventure is not under- and that there is not tion and Gaming Association taken in a spirit of global enough time, and that people (ISAGA; www.isaga.info), and Leader- partnership. Collapse cannot be cannot be moderate or responsible ship for Environment and Develop- avoided if people do not learn to view or compassionate.At least not in time. ment (LEAD). themselves and others as part of one That model is self-fulfilling. If the 4. Such an intermediate step is illus- integrated global society. Both will world’s people choose to believe it, trated by ICLEI, an international require compassion, not only with the they will be proven right.The result association of (currently 450) local here and now, but with the distant will be collapse. governments implementing sustain- and future as well. Humanity must A third mental model says that able development. See www.iclei.org. learn to love the idea of leaving future the limits are real and close and in 5. R. Buckminster Fuller, Critical Path generations a living planet. some cases below our current levels (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1981). Is anything we have advocated of throughput. But there is just 6. Abraham Maslow, The Farthest here, from more resource efficiency to enough time, with no time to waste. Reaches of Human Nature (New York: more compassion, really possible? Can There is just enough energy, enough Viking Press, 1971). the world actually ease down below material, enough money, enough the limits and avoid collapse? Can the environmental resilience, and enough 7. J. M. Keynes, foreword to Essays in Persuasion (New York: Harcourt human footprint be reduced in time? human virtue to bring about a Brace, 1932). Is there enough vision, technology, planned reduction in the ecological freedom, community, responsibility, footprint of humankind: a sustainabil- 8. Aurelio Peccei, One Hundred Pages for foresight, money, discipline, and love, ity revolution to a much better world the Future (New York: Pergamon Press, 1981), 184–185. on a global scale? for the vast majority. Of all the hypothetical questions That third scenario might very we have posed in this book, these are well be wrong. But the evidence we the most unanswerable, though many have seen, from world data to global people will pretend to answer them. computer models, suggests that it Even we—your authors—differ could conceivably be made right. among ourselves when tallying the There is no way of knowing for sure, odds for and against.The ritual cheer- other than to try it. • fulness of many uninformed people, especially world leaders, would say the questions are not even relevant; there Donella Meadows, who died unexpectedly in 2001, was a systems analyst and adjunct professor of are no meaningful limits. Many of the Environmental Studies at . She wrote the nationally syndicated newspaper column informed are infected with the deep “The Global Citizen.” cynicism that lies just under the ritual Jorgen Randers is a policy analyst and president emeritus of the Norwegian School of Management. He lives in Oslo, Norway. public cheerfulness.They would say Dennis Meadows is former director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research. He has a that there are severe problems already, doctorate in management from the MIT Sloan School of Management and three honorary doctorates from with worse ones ahead, and that European universities.

© 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS 781.398.9700 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® NOVEMBER 2005 9 TOOLBOX

WHY COLLABORATION IS KEY TO SUSTAINING OUR FUTURE

ADAPTED FROM A TALK BY DENNIS MEADOWS

The book The Limits to Growth by Donella But if you look across continents— organizations, each taking on a piece Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen forests, agricultural soils, groundwater, of the overall picture—that is, by pro- Randers, and William W. Behrens III the air are deteriorating.We’ve caught ducing food, providing transportation, (Universe Books, 1972) was a key catalyst of the worldwide environmental movement. most of the fish in the sea, we’ve used or giving healthcare.And those verti- Its look at the consequences of unchecked up a lot of water, and it goes on and cal organizations have become skillful growth on a finite planet became the cor- on. I won’t belabor the point. I think at maximizing the productivity of nerstone of a global debate on how to we all know that we have a big job their people and resources and achieve a sustainable future.Twenty years ahead of us. achieving results, often with high later the authors followed the book up quality. But their orientation is short with Beyond the Limits, which showed that A Big Gap humanity was already overshooting Earth’s term, and their focus is on a small limits. Now Limits to Growth:The 30-Year I’ve been looking at these issues off piece of the puzzle.The nature of Update makes a compelling case for the and on for the last 30 years.The most global issues, on the other hand, is vital need for a Sustainability Revolution. recent results of my study have been long term and interconnected.We published in the book Limits to need a different way. At the 2004 Pegasus Conference, during his keynote presentation, invited Growth:A 30-Year Update (Chelsea Revolution from the Outside Dennis Meadows to share some insights Green Publishing, 2004), which is the into the forces that are shaping the state of focus of a new Pegasus video (view Another observation, from our studies the world today and the ways that people clips from the video). It’s been an of innovation in various industries, is are actively collaborating to produce interesting challenge to look forward that really revolutionary changes don’t change.The following article was adapted to the next 100 years, to understand come from inside established enter- from Dennis’s talk. Peter’s entire keynote presentation—including Dennis’s comments something about the issues this prises; they typically come from out- —is now available through the Pegasus web century presents, and then to try to side. In my experience, collaboration site at www.pegasuscom.com/sta04av.html. articulate that under- is the mechanism standing for people that makes it possi- genuinely concerned ble for those about doing some- changes to happen. C hanging our world. It’s so easy, thing constructive and Collaboration is a when you’re sitting here in this concrete right now.A relationship among little microcosm on the banks of the big gap exists between people committed Charles River in Cambridge, Massa- understanding and to supporting each chusetts, in the United States, to for- action.Today I will share a couple of other in achieving a shared goal.We get what’s really going on with the points that help me bridge that gap. speak about it lightly, but collabora- rest of the world.You could start to Why do we have these enormous tion is an intense discipline that does- have the illusion that everything’s global problems? No one is trying to n’t happen accidentally; it requires going okay. In fact, the rest of the create them.There’s nobody who intention, attention, and integrity.And world is in big trouble. wants the gap between the rich and it’s hard to make it work among We have over 2 billion people on the poor to get bigger. Nobody wants members of a new group. the planet living on less than $1 a day. the environmental foundations of our I lived and frequently worked in The next 2 billion don’t make much society to erode out from under us. Eastern Europe back in the seventies more than $2 a day, and the gap Nobody wants to use violence as a and eighties. It’s significant to note between the rich and the poor is get- way of resolving conflict. So why is that the profound revolutions in the ting bigger.There isn’t a continent on our global society proceeding the way Soviet Union, East Germany, Hun- the globe where resources are being it is? gary, Czechoslovakia, and so forth, managed sustainably.There are loca- Of course, the reasons are com- when the walls came down and tradi- tions of course where it’s happening, plex, but there are some relatively tional communism got thrown out, cities where the air is getting cleaner, simple explanations.We have become came not from the established enter- rivers where the fish are coming back. incredibly skillful at creating vertical prises but from collaborations among

10 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® VOL. 16, NO. 9 www.pegasuscom.com © 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS people. Often these collaborations Selected Resources by Dennis Meadows focused on environmental issues and became opportunities for people to come together, get a sense of their Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update strengths, and work outside the estab- by Donella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows lished organizations. This is the most recent follow-up to the 1972 book The Limits Many of the issues I confront to Growth, which shocked the world with its look into the future come out of habitual behaviors. I’m at the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet. not in any way demeaning the impor- The book gained worldwide attention and became the corner- tance of some of our big problems stone of a global debate on how to achieve a sustainable future. such as climate change and nuclear Twenty years later the authors followed the book up with Beyond the Limits, which showed humanity was already over- proliferation, but I can tell you there’s shooting Earth’s limits. Now Limits to Growth:The 30-Year Update a lot of low-hanging fruit.We aren’t makes a compelling case for the vital need for a Sustainability suffering these enormous deteriora- Revolution. tions in our planet because some Order# OL027 338 pages, softcover external force is pushing them on us. $22.50 They come out of our habits.They come out of the fact that every morn- One on One with Dennis Meadows: ing six billion plus people get up and Growth on a Finite Planet go through their life in a habitual way, How can we avoid outgrowing the planet? and, unfortunately, those people have created a set of habits that aren’t “This new DVD captures Dennis Meadows at his best—informal, articulate, insightful. He is an important mentor for us all in facing working very well.They could have some of the most difficult problems humans have ever had to face.” different habits that would work a lot —Peter Senge, author of The Fifth Discipline better. Our challenge is to understand how to boost people over this atten- In this eye-opening vision of possible futures, Meadows spells out the dangers of tion barrier until they can settle into a our current patterns of growth, examines the ways of thinking that have led to this critical point, and offers direction to those who are ready to become part of the new set of activities.When we do solution. Click here to learn more. that, we’ll see that collaboration plays Order# VONE003D DVD Video (NTSC), 47 minutes, color. an incredibly important role in help- ing us to find and implement solu- Special introductory price, only $125.00 (regularly $175.00) tions to the big problems. • The Systems Thinking Playbook—Expanded Edition by Linda Booth Sweeney and Dennis Meadows An ideal resource for facilitators working with aspiring systems Collaboration is a relationship thinkers. Packed with enjoyable, hands-on exercises, powerful debriefs, and “Voices from the Field.” Includes Volume I, II, III. among people committed Order# EX005RR Volumes I-III,Three-ring binder, 260 pages to supporting each other in $75.00 achieving a shared goal.

Shifting Dominance: Moving from Addiction to Adaptation in A version of this article originally appeared in Leverage Points for a New Organizational Learning Workplace, New World, issue 58 (January Why does an enterprise, after years of steady progress and growth, suddenly face a 31, 2005). drastic decline in fortunes? Even in simple systems, behavior changes rapidly when a new set of causal factors becomes more powerful than those that have determined past Leverage Points is a free monthly behavior. Shifting dominance can often leave an organization with a set of managers, newsletter spotlighting innovations in habits, and learning skills focused on levers that are no longer effective. In the extreme, leadership, management, and organiza- adaptive behaviors become addictive and systems actually organize themselves to sup- tional development.To subscribe, go to port the addictive behavior. In this powerful presentation, Dennis Meadows draws on www.pegasuscom.com/lpsub.html. local and global examples to illustrate this process and offers steps that managers can take to ensure that their organizations learn effective rather than destructive policies. Order# V9712,VHS Video, 87 minutes, color $99.00

© 2005 PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS 781.398.9700 THE SYSTEMS THINKER® NOVEMBER 2005 11 LEARNING QUOTES

“By accepting responsibility, we take NEW FROM PEGASUS effective steps toward our goal: an inclusive human society on a habit- Register Now for the 2006 Pegasus Conference—and Save! able planet, a society that works for November 13–15, 2006 all humans and for all nonhumans. By Westin Waltham-Boston Hotel accepting responsibility, we move closer to creating a world that works Waltham, Massachusetts for all.” Based on preliminary comments by participants and presenters alike, the recent —Sharif M.Abdullah Pegasus Conference in San Francisco generated an upsurge of momentum for change. Over the course of the next year, we’re looking forward to hearing—and “The future is not completely beyond sharing—how attendees put their learnings into action in their organizations and our control. It is the work of our own beyond. In the meantime, we’re already immersed in the exciting process of crafting hands.” next year’s program—which we promise will be equally powerful. —Robert F. Kennedy Register now through December 31 for only $950. For additional conference “Changing how we think about our- details as they become available, go to www.pegasuscom.com/stapage.html. selves in relation to other people is the next evolutionary step for Access 2005 Conference Resources humankind.” Even if you weren’t able to join us in San Francisco, you can take advantage of some —Barbara Bollmann of the rich resources generated at the conference. Over the next month or so, For information about reading we’ll be posting illustrations based on the keynote presentations and support and using causal loop diagrams, materials from various sessions.We’ll also be offering audio and video recordings go to of selected sessions for sale. www.pegasuscom.com/cld.html. The first such offering is the DVD of Peter Senge’s keynote presentation.To view a ® clip, go to www.pegasuscom.com/stapage.html, look for “Keynote Video,” and click THE SYSTEMS THINKER on “View a Clip.” You’ll also find purchase information there. Editor: Janice Molloy ([email protected]) Founding Publisher: Daniel H. Kim Publisher: Ginny Wiley Take Advantage of Our Fall Sale Production: Nancy Daugherty Circulation: Eric Kraus ([email protected]) Get 30 percent off selected items and 10 percent off all other Pegasus products Editorial Advisory Council: Pål Davidsen, University of Bergen; Bob Eberlein, Ventana Systems, Inc.; Sharon A. Els, when you place an order for $100 or more (not including shipping) by December Pugh-Roberts Associates; Michael Goodman, Innovation 31, 2005. See a complete list of 30 percent off sale items. 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