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Valuation of Tesla Motors, Inc

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Valuation of Tesla Motors, Inc VALUATION OF TESLA MOTORS, INC. th Master Thesis, Copenhagen Business School, 12 of May 2016 Torbjørn Strand Husevåg Helge Johan Rød Flinder MSc. Finance & Strategic Management MSc. Finance & Investments Supervisor: Bent Jesper Christensen Number of Pages: 118 Number of Characters (with spaces): 193.336 Executive Summary The purpose of this thesis is to find the value of the US premium electric automotive company Tesla Motors, Inc. based on a strategic and financial analysis. Strategic analysis: Government support schemes play a key role in the electric vehicle (EV) market. However, due to declining battery costs, EVs are set to challenge gasoline vehicles in the near future. The premium vehicle segment is highly competitive, dominated by the major brands BMW, Mercedes and Audi. The competition in the EV market is expected to increase after Tesla’s Model 3 launch in 2017. We believe Tesla posits several sustainable competitive advantages, providing confidence in strong future earning capabilities. This includes their upcoming Gigafactory, Supercharger network, demand for Model 3 and CEO Elon Musk. Financial analysis: Tesla has never been profitable, due to its low economies of scale and high investments aimed to fuel future growth. However, this is about to change, as we expect a continued strong revenue growth while operational margins improve. We expect Tesla to become highly profitable after the launch of Model 3. In the near future we define Tesla´s main bottleneck to production capacity, not demand. Their guided annual production is 500.000 vehicles by 2020, representing a tenfold increase in just five years. Valuation : Per 1st of May 2016, one Tesla share traded at $ 240 on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. By using the Economic Value Added-model, we estimate a price per share of $ 350 per 1st of May 2016. This 45 percent upside potential indicates that Tesla´s future earnings potential is not fully priced into the share. Highlights 2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 E2021 E2022 E2023 E2024 E2025 Cars sold in 1000´s 51 73 113 156 259 400 510 631 788 993 1.260 Revenue bUSD 4,0 7,1 10,8 12,8 16,9 22,3 26,3 30,8 37,4 46,2 57,7 NOPAT bUSD -0,7 0,2 0,5 1,5 2,3 3,0 3,8 4,3 5,5 7,1 9,2 Revenue growth 27% 75% 52% 19% 32% 32% 18% 17% 22% 23% 25% EBITDA-margin -7% 12% 14% 21% 25% 26% 27% 26% 27% 27% 27% ROIC -36% 6% 9% 16% 18% 17% 18% 17% 18% 20% 22% Number of cars 500.000 400.000 Analysts: Torbjørn Strand Husevåg 300.000 Helge Johan Rød Flinder 200.000 Supervisor: 100.000 Annual Production of Cars Bent Jesper Christensen - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Table of Contents 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 4 1.1 MOTIVATION ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 PROBLEM FORMULATION ......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 Structure of thesis ......................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2.2 Delimitation .................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.3 CASE COMPANY INTRODUCTION: TESLA MOTORS, INC. .................................................................................................. 9 1.3.1 History of Tesla Motors ................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3.2 Segments ..................................................................................................................................................... 12 1.3.3 Products ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 1.3.4 Governance ................................................................................................................................................. 19 1.3.5 Peers and peer group definition .................................................................................................................. 22 2 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................................26 2.1 ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................... 26 2.1.1 Political & legal factors ............................................................................................................................... 27 2.1.2 Economic factors ......................................................................................................................................... 30 2.1.3 Social & environmental factors ................................................................................................................... 32 2.1.4 Technological factors .................................................................................................................................. 33 2.1.5 Sub-conclusion: Environmental analysis ..................................................................................................... 34 2.2 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................. 35 2.2.1 The global automobile industry .................................................................................................................. 35 2.2.2 Porter´s 5 forces .......................................................................................................................................... 49 2.2.3 Sub-conclusion: Industry analysis................................................................................................................ 54 2.3 INTERNAL ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................. 55 2.3.1 Supporting activities ................................................................................................................................... 55 2.3.2 Primary activities ........................................................................................................................................ 59 2.3.1 VRIO ............................................................................................................................................................ 63 2.3.2 Sub-conclusion: Internal analysis ................................................................................................................ 64 2.4 SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................... 64 3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS .........................................................................................................................................65 3.1 HISTORICAL FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................. 65 3.1.1 Reformulation of income statement ........................................................................................................... 65 3.1.2 Reformulation of balance sheet .................................................................................................................. 66 3.1.3 Historical performance and profitability ..................................................................................................... 68 3.1.4 Liquidity Risk ............................................................................................................................................... 76 3.1.5 Sub-conclusion: historical financial analysis ............................................................................................... 78 3.2 FINANCIAL FORECASTING ....................................................................................................................................... 78 3.2.1 Budget period .............................................................................................................................................. 78 3.2.2 Terminal period ........................................................................................................................................... 78 3.2.3 Pro forma income statement ...................................................................................................................... 79 3.2.4 Pro forma Balance Sheet ............................................................................................................................. 96 2 3.2.5 ROIC ............................................................................................................................................................ 99 3.2.6 Sub-conclusion:
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