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A Comprehensive Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, B.C

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A Comprehensive Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, B.C A Comprehensive Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, B.C. by Rachel Warwick B.Sc., Simon Fraser University, 2017 Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in the Department of Earth Sciences Faculty of Science © Rachel Warwick 2020 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Fall 2020 Copyright in this work rests with the author. Please ensure that any reproduction or re-use is done in accordance with the relevant national copyright legislation. Declaration of Committee Name: Rachel Warwick Degree: Master of Science Title: A Comprehensive Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, B.C. Committee: Chair: Brendan Dyck Assistant Professor, Earth Sciences Glyn Williams-Jones Supervisor Professor, Earth Sciences Jeffrey Witter Committee Member Adjunct Professor, Earth Sciences Melanie Kelman Committee Member Physical Scientist Geological Survey of Canada Nathalie Vigouroux Examiner Instructor, Earth and Environmental Sciences Douglas College ii Abstract Mount Meager Volcanic Complex located in south-western British Columbia exhibits possible volcanic activity in the form of hydrothermal features such as several hot springs around the base and a fumarole field in the northeast corner of the complex. Operational infrastructure, including a run-of-river hydroelectric project, is present in the vicinity of the volcano and a significant population exists only 60 km downstream. Up until now, no volcanic hazard assessment or accompanying map existed for Mount Meager. Hazard assessments are important tools used to understand, manage and reduce the risks associated with volcanic environments. This thesis investigates the potential primary volcanic hazards associated with a future explosive eruption at Mount Meager. These hazards are identified as lahars, pyroclastic density currents and volcanic ash. With the use of numerical modelling programs, the distribution, timescales, intensity of inundation and other parameters are investigated. Finally, a suite of scenario-based preliminary hazard maps have been produced to visually display these hazards as a communication tool. This information relays hazard information to stakeholders with a vested interest in the potential risks involved with any future explosive volcanic event from Mount Meager. Keywords: Mount Meager; Volcanic Hazard Modelling; Lahar; Pyroclastic Flow; Tephra; Canadian Volcano iii Acknowledgements There are many people that I would like to extend my gratitude for their input and guidance through these past few years of completing my Master’s. First, thank you to my senior supervisor, Dr. Glyn Williams-Jones for the opportunity to work on this exciting project and for going above-and-beyond to offer research guidance and educational opportunities and facilitating field research. I am also extremely grateful for the input and words of encouragement from my other committee members Dr. Jeff Witter and Dr. Melanie Kelman throughout my Master’s degree. I would also like to acknowledge Jennifer Harrison (University of Bristol) who completed the numerical modelling of tephra distribution with TephraProb. This was an invaluable component and addition to the volcanic hazard analysis for this hazard assessment. Thank you to everyone (past and present) in the physical volcanology lab group for all the time they have taken out of their day to assist me in small and sometimes big challenges and for being there when I needed to bounce around ideas or share a laugh. You have all helped me immeasurably over the past few years. Specifically thank you to Gioachino Roberti for providing me with so much material, information, and expertise about Mount Meager and for initial guidance of using VolcFlow. And also to Yannick Le Moigne for his guidance in using and troubleshooting issues with VolcFlow. Thank you to Antonina Calahorrano who was a part of initial investigations of statistical analysis of wind patterns across Mount Meager. I would also like to thank many others in the SFU Earth Science department who have either helped me throughout my years in the department or who have been there for great discussions and laughs, and made my experience in the department wonderful. Next, I would like to thank the many individuals for their assistance in various aspects of navigating the numerical models chosen for each hazard. Thank you to Valentin Gueugneau for answering my questions about lahar and pyroclastic flow modelling in VolcFlow, Francisco Vasconez for also offering guidance in lahar modelling with VolcFlow and lahar modelling in LAHARZ. Thank you to everyone at the Cascades Volcano Observatory who offered guidance and suggestions upon listening to my discussion about my research in November 2018. Specifically, thank you to Sarah iv Ogburn for her guidance and suggestions for pyroclastic flow modelling of Mount Meager for providing me with additional reading material about volcanic hazard assessments available for U.S. volcanoes. Finally, thank you so much to my friends and family who have offered support through words of encouragement, guidance and patiently listening to my ideas or challenges. Especially, thank you to my parents, whom without their support and unquestioning belief in all my hopes and dreams, I would not be where I am today. v Table of Contents Declaration of Committee ................................................................................................ ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures................................................................................................................. ix List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................ xii Chapter 1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background ........................................................................................................... 2 1.2. Geologic History .................................................................................................... 6 1.3. Eruption sequence and hazards of the 2360 calendar years B.P. eruption ............ 7 1.4. Future Volcanic Hazards ....................................................................................... 8 1.4.1. Pyroclastic Density Currents ........................................................................ 10 1.4.2. Lahar Flows ................................................................................................. 11 1.4.3. Volcanic ash ................................................................................................ 13 1.5. Introduction to hazard maps ................................................................................ 14 1.6. Thesis outline ...................................................................................................... 15 Chapter 2. Methods .................................................................................................. 17 2.1. The governing scenarios ..................................................................................... 17 2.2. Topographic Controls: DEM ................................................................................ 19 2.3. Numerical Models ................................................................................................ 20 2.3.1. Pyroclastic Density Current modelling programs and parameters ................ 21 ∆H/L energy cone .................................................................................................. 21 2.3.2. Lahar modelling programs and parameters ................................................. 23 LAHARZ ................................................................................................................. 24 VolcFlow ................................................................................................................ 27 2.3.3. Volcanic ash modelling and parameters ...................................................... 30 Ash3d..................................................................................................................... 31 TephraProb ............................................................................................................ 33 Chapter 3. Numerical Model Results ....................................................................... 36 3.1. Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Zones .......................................................... 36 3.1.1. H/L energy cone ........................................................................................ 36 3.2. Lahar Inundation.................................................................................................. 39 3.2.1. LAHARZ ...................................................................................................... 39 3.2.2. VolcFlow ...................................................................................................... 42 Lahar Result Summary and Limitations .................................................................
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