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The Manhattanization of Seattle? by CYNTHIA FLASH

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The Manhattanization of Seattle? by CYNTHIA FLASH ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE PUGET SOUND BUSINESS JOURNAL A1 PANEL of EXPERTS The Manhattanization of Seattle? BY CYNTHIA FLASH t’s no secret that job growth is golden after-work lifestyle they appreciate. Recently, four experts representing a in the Emerald City. And it’s clear to So what about home ownership in real estate brokerage and marketing firm, anyone who has driven through or this hot downtown Seattle market? an appraiser and economist, a mortgage walked around downtown Seattle Developers have focused their attention lender and a millennial consumer joined that most of those workers now live on apartments citywide, which increased a round table discussion with the Puget Iin our urban core. Many are young, well- by 18,667 units throughout Seattle Sound Business Journal to explore in- paid techies who are new to town. Most between 2011 and 2014. Meanwhile, city housing trends. After much debate of these millennials are choosing to rent only 1,012 new condominium units were and a review of the market statistics and new, amenity-rich apartments so they added – meaning that just 5 percent of demographics, they agreed on what can be close to their jobs, peers, and the this new housing stock is for sale. the future holds for renters, buyers and CONTINUED PG A2 PUGET SOUND BUSINESS JOURNAL ROUND TABLE SERIES 1.0 GUEST SPONSORS: A2 ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE PUGET SOUND BUSINESS JOURNAL ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE PUGET SOUND BUSINESS JOURNAL A3 CONTINUED downtown developers. Recession. The panel of experts say “It’s the Manhattanization of Seattle,” the in-city condo market fully recovered Targeting Urban Investment said Dean Jones, principal and owner of from the loss in values but prices haven’t Mortgage Restrictions (Siting a Seattle and Bellevue Manhattan-like development trajectory) Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty yet risen as fast as apartment rents. In and Realogics, Inc. “I believe we’re going King County, apartment rents climbed Easing Up to have one of the most fundamentally 35 percent since year end 2010, while dense markets, like New York City, citywide condo prices rose only 6 percent Vancouver and San Francisco. We‘ll see (higher in the urban core). That value ualifying for a home restricted stock unit (RSU) income loan has become much now, which is great for tech easier over the past five workers who receive a significant “For consumers, prices will go up so Q years – especially portion of their compensation now’s a good time to buy.” FINANCIAL DISTRICT for first-time buyers — that way instead of through at the same time that a salary. BRIAN O’CONNOR | O’Connor Consulting Group consumer purchasing Buyers should not power may be peaking. be afraid to take out That’s the word mortgage insurance. inflation and appreciation across the inversion means it can actually be less CENTRAL PARK from Trevor Bennett, Rather than put down board for land, construction costs, rents expensive to own a condominium than it mortgage loan officer 20 percent to avoid and condo values. Now consumers need is to rent a similar apartment (especially with Caliber Home Loans, this insurance, they can to decide if they want to take an equity after income tax deductions). So why the region’s largest private get into a home with less stake in all that or watch it from the haven’t more buyers snapped up these mortgage banker. It’s good news down, and take the tax deductible sidelines.” condos? UPPER EASTSIDE for millennials and other renters insurance, which avoids taking Jones, along with economist Brian “Most new residents are going to who are considering buying a out a more volatile adjustable O’Connor of O’Connor Consulting kick the tires downtown for a lease term home or condominium. rate second mortgage or higher Group, mortgage banker Trevor Bennett or two,” said Jones. “That’s especially “Now, first-time buyers can buy interest rate fixed second of Caliber Home Loans, and millennial the case for young recruits working on digital marketing expert Nelson Yong, contract. They’ll want greater security concluded that current renters thinking before buying. Many of those apartment about buying should start getting serious units are incubating our future condo “Now, first-time buyers can buy about it now. buyers.” a home without any contribution Demand for condos in downtown Apartment demand closely tracks Seattle had been relatively flat since job growth, which O’Connor said may of their own and 100 percent of the 2008 downturn, but it’s expected have peaked in 2014, unless of course, the down payment can be gifted.” to grow once new units open later this more large corporations move in. “We’re “I believe we’re going to have one year. It’s been half a decade since any coming off a record year led by Amazon of the most fundamentally dense TREVOR BENNETT | Caliber Home Loans new condominiums have been delivered hiring and there could be another Expedia SISTER CITIES — Downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue operate much like two pistons in the region’s and inventory is “like oil in an engine,” out there,” said O’Connor, referring markets, like New York City, high-octane engine and share surprisingly similar characteristics with their distant cousin New York City. a home without any contribution mortgage, Bennett said. He also said Jones. “Without it the market slows to the travel giant’s announced move As illustrated, their urban growth areas are defined by approximately 10-by-two miles, each featuring a Vancouver and San Francisco.” central recreational amenity and a prevailing consumer preference to live, work and play in the city that of their own and 100 percent of thinks appreciation is rising much down. The in-city condo market is now from Bellevue to Seattle. Commercial encourages density. Experts suggest that Manhattan’s sky-high property prices will eventually become a DEAN JONES | Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty the down payment can be gifted,” faster than most consumers can rebooting because more consumers are developers are certainly hopeful as they reality in Puget Sound’s urban markets. Bennett said as one of four save up for larger down payments. buying in and median home prices are are building millions of square feet of industry experts who met recently “I meet many first time buyers increasing.” speculative office space. interest rates while they can. Then there 10 percent of these new renters decide cover the added costs. have been discussing it just like San to discuss the region’s apartment that are misinformed and we Added O’Connor: “We need Although existing condo inventory is are the discretionary buyers to add to the to buy, that’s going to be a significant “It’s a good time to buy as we’re Francisco did decades ago. Most v. condo real estate market. simply want to be a resource at significant appreciation for a strong anemic, demand has been expanding. mix – those moving up to newer units, impact on our housing stock,” Jones said. early in this condo cycle,” said business leaders oppose government He’s also seeing higher loan- this pivotal time in the market,” condo market but that’s coming. Currently there are fewer than 60 resale seeking second homes, fence sitters, “I worry about supply and affordability.” O’Connor, who predicts that new intervention. Jones said he believes to-value jumbo loans with as little said Bennett. “Buyers need to Developers will be playing catch up given condos on the market in downtown Seattle students who have paid off their loans O’Connor said he also fears the cost towers will soon need to average the better solution is to encourage as 5 percent down today. Lenders be prepared and recognize an the protracted high-rise construction and while there are 867 condos currently and put money into the bank, downsizing of new construction will only rise as many more than $900 per square foot to more density to create additional believe home prices are rising, opportunity when it surfaces. And timelines — demand can rise much under construction, Jones estimated that empty nesters and investors —the types labor union contracts will reset this year pencil out. Because of high rents supply, which will slow the increases making them feel more secure first time buyers should remember quicker than supply.” nearly half are already pre-sold. “We see who typically enter the market every time – five years after they corrected with and even higher demand for income in rents. “I feel that the market should in making such large loans. In —just get in. This isn’t your final The last downtown condo boom was a supply and demand imbalance ahead, it rises. the recession. The city wants to charge property investments (evidenced by decide the price of housing,” he said. addition, mortgage underwriting house.” 2004 through 2007. Then the credit especially at moderate price points,” he With historic home ownership levels additional fees as well. Developers will low capitalization rates), apartments Bottom line? These experts have a also takes into consideration crunch pinched the development pipeline said, adding that he expects more renters in the 60th percentile – it seems unlikely have to charge more for new projects or have been more profitable, leaving strong message for those young tech and buyers retreated amidst the Great to explore the favorable prices and low that millennials will rent forever. “If even defer building more condos until prices few projects in the condo pipeline. workers who may be afraid to commit With that lack of supply, we’ll to a purchase: If you are secure in www.NoPlaceLikeOwn.com experience upward pressure up on your job and you love Seattle, now’s New Construction Condominium Deliveries & Sales Status prices.
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