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The Changing Climate of Mauritius

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The Changing Climate of Mauritius The Changing Climate of Mauritius By SureshYadowsun Boodhoo, Director, Meteorological services Introduction • Human-induced climate change is probably becoming the most debated topics as the impacts gradually become known and are revealed to have negative, and often difficult to predict, consequences on all natural ecosystems, on socio-economic factors, health and food security. The impacts are even stronger for small islands states with limited resources. CLIMATE CHANGE TOPICS • Causes • Effects • Direct Impacts • Climate Change and Sustainable Development • Response Measures Climate System • Earth’s climate is determined by complex interactions between the Sun one hand and, the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface and biosphere (part of the Earth’s surface or atmosphere inhabited by living things) on the other. • The Sun is the principal driving force for weather and climate. The uneven heating of the Earth’s surface causes convective flows in both the atmosphere and oceans, and is thus a major cause of winds and oceans currents. Rising concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere are leading to changes in the climate and the climate system Primary Contributors to the Natural Greenhouse Effect Carbon Dioxide Other ~10% ~25% ~65% Water Vapour The IPCC-Analysis & Predictions •Global : Current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, the most important of the GHGs, and methane far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning the last 650,000 years. •Year 1750 = 280 ppm (Industrial Revolution starts) •Present = 381ppm •Causes: fossil fuel (Industries, cars etc),agriculture, and land-use changes (deforestation, recreation..) CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON Cyclones Storm Surge Floods Drought Warm Climate Bugs Beach Erosion Food security Human Well-Being IPCC – Global temperature trend Local Temperature trend 0 . 8 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES - 0 . 6 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 - 0 . 2 - 0 .1951 4 - 0 . 6 1954 - 0 . 8 1957 VACOAS 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 M a x i mum 1990 10 per. Mov. Avg. (Maximum) 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Local Temperature trend 1.5 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES - PLAISANCE 1 0.5 Maximum 10 per. Mov. Avg. (Maximum) 0 1951 1951 to 2006 -0.5 1954 1957 1960 -1 1963 -1.5 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Local Temperature trend Rodrigues 1951 -2006 2.5 rods 5 per. Mov. Avg. (rods) 2 10 per. Mov. Avg. (rods) 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 St Brandon Agalega Maximum 1.5 10 per. Mov. Avg. (Maximum) 1.5 Maximum 10 per. Mov. Avg. (Maximum) 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 -0.5 -0.5 -1 -1 -1.5 -1.5 Direct Impacts • Energy consumption (GHG Emission) • Economics • Human Well-being • Pressure on water sector IPCC- Global Water Analysis & Predictions •The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour •More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Increased drying due to higher temperatures and decreased precipitation have contributed to these changes. IPCC- Fresh water resources and their management •By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics •Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. •Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. •Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline. Local Precipitation Trend Trend in Annual Rainfall-Vacoas Annual Rainfall 10 per. Mov. Avg. (Annual Rainfall) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Millimetres 1000 500 0 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year Local Precipitation Trend Trend in Annual Rainfall Over Mauritius ANNUAL RAINFALL 10 per. Mov. Avg. (ANNUAL RAINFALL) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 MILLIMETRE 1500 1000 500 0 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 YEAR Direct Impacts • Demands growing too fast 10 l inin 19601960 toto 250250ll atat presentpresent •• IncreaseIncrease storagestorage –– economicseconomics •• AgricultureAgriculture atat stakestake •• DamageDamage toto ecosystemecosystem ((asas aa resultresult ofof seasea waterwater intrusionintrusion upup toto 3km3km inlandinland)) •• HumanHuman wellwell--beingbeing 25.5 25.0 24.5 Hotter Summer? 24.0 MEAN TEMPERATURE AT VACOAS - DEC,JAN, FEB TEMPERATURE (ºC) 23.5 23.0 22.5 1948-49 1950-51 1952-53 1954-1955 1956-57 1958-59 1960-61 1962-63 1964-65 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 YEAR 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 Hotter Summer? MEAN TEMPERATURE AT PLAISANCE - DEC,JAN,FEB 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 YEAR 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5 Hotter Summer? 26.0 MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR MEDINE - DEC,JAN,FEB TEMPERATURE25.5 (ºC) 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 1951-52 1953-1954 1955-56 1957-58 1959-60 1961-62 1963-64 1965-66 1967-68 1969-70 1971-72 1973-74 1975-76 1977-78 1979-80 1981-82 YEAR 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-2000 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 Direct Impacts • Energy demand for space cooling – environment and economics • Pressure on water sector • Human well-being Warm climate bugs are damaging ever green plants TERRESTRIAL AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS 1850 Raphael Island (St. Brandon) 1960 GLACIER D’ARGENTIERES (French Alps) IPCC - Sea Level Rise •IPCC: average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and the ocean has been absorbing most of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand and is estimated to have contributed .42 mm yr-1 to the average sea level rise from 1961 to 2003, and 1.6 mm yr-1 from 1993 to 2003. IPCC - Sea Warming • observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover,salinity, oxygen levels and circulation. These include: • shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans; • increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes; • range changes and earlier migrations of fish in rivers . •The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units. Sea Surface Temperature - Regional Increase of 0.3-0.5ºC in tropical belt of SWIO Direct Impacts • Coastal inundation • Intrusion into inland acquiferes • Higher water level during extreme events • Damage to coastal infrastructures • Threat to inhabitation • Very high impacts on economics and security • Loss of marine resources, incl. fish COASTAL INUNDATION Global Warming & Sea Level Rise Cyclonic Activities • No definite trend in number of cyclones in SWIO • However, intensification trend of cyclones steeper • Gamede, Inlala & Jaya intensified at 1.5 - 2Ts in 12 hrs whereas normal = 1T in 24 hrs Very Intense Tropical Cyclone GAFILO – March 2004 During the past decade more and more intense cyclones are being observed in the South West Indian Ocean Storm Surge Beach Erosion HUMAN HEALTH OZONE HOLE(S) HEAT WAVES • INCREASE OF EVEN HALF A DEGREE GLOBALLY MAY TRANSLATE INTO INCREASES OF SEVERAL DEGREES IN URBAN AREAS. THIS IS AN IDEAL CONDITION FOR HEAT WAVES TO OCCUR. RESPONSE MEASURES More efficient technological means Technology transfer-assist. from developped countries Research into high-yield crops Application of scientific means fo production incl. use of climate data Change in Habits CONCLUSION Climate Change is one of the most serious threats to sustainable development: It has adverse Impacts on Food Security, Water Resources, Human Health, Economic Activities and the Environment. Remedial actions : NOW Thank You.
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