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Regional Inter-Agency Standing Committee (RIASCO), Southern Africa Humanitarian Trends in Southern Africa: Challenges and Opportunities Regional Inter-Agency Standing Committeei (RIASCO), Southern Africa Humanitarian Trends in Southern Africa: Challenges and Opportunities FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme Stellenbosch University Private Bag x1 Matieland, 7602 South Africa [email protected] PLEASE CITE AS: Holloway A., Chasi V., de Waal J., Drimie S., Fortune G., Mafuleka G., Morojele M., Penicela Nhambiu B., Randrianalijaona M., Vogel C. and Zweig P. 2013. Humanitarian Trends in Southern Africa: Challenges and Opportunities. Regional Interagency Standing Committee, Southern Africa. Rome, FAO. COVER IMAGE CAPTION “PRECIOUS BUNDLE: An as-yet-unnamed baby who was born on the back of a bakkie (pick- up truck) just days ago during the deluge is carried gently across the water by a farmworker” – courtesy of Antione de Ras, The Star, January 25, 2013. i The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN 978-0-620-57485-3 © FAO, 2013 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to [email protected]. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. ii FOREWORD Southern Africa is vulnerable to a variety of slow- and sudden-onset disasters: floods, drought, disease epidemics, food and energy insecurity, political unrest and many others. In an average year, millions of people are affected by food insecurity and hundreds of thousands by floods alone. “Humanitarian Trends in Southern Africa: Challenges and Opportunities” was born out of the realization that humanitarian dynamics in the region are changing rapidly. Population growth, migration, urbanization, water scarcity, climate change and environmental degradation are but some of the forces that now must be taken into account in any conceptual model of humanitarian conditions. There has also been profound progress in our understanding of the role humanitarians can and should play. No longer can we treat emergencies as isolated events, or respond to crises without considering their underlying structural causes and their inter-connectedness within wider socio-economic contexts. We see this paradigm shift in efforts to strengthen disaster risk reduction, address the vulnerability of communities and build resilience by linking humanitarian action to a wider developmental context. Ensuring that mitigation, preparedness, humanitarian response and development are integrated not only builds sustainability but also better prepares us for the next disaster. Therefore, any kind of action must have as an ultimate objective the development of institutional, economic and community structures which can effectively and systematically minimize the impact of any emergency and contribute to the development of southern Africa. This study is part of these efforts at improving the effectiveness of humanitarian action. It provides a basis on which we can identify the skills and capacities needed in the new humanitarian world, and also offers an invaluable opportunity for partnership among public, private and civil society sectors in the region by allowing for a shared understanding of the threats and challenges we must face together. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Study rationale – the changing character of humanitarian emergencies This research was prompted by a growing consensus that “the nature of humanitarian emergencies is changing” (UNOCHA, 2011a), with future emergencies increasingly driven over time by “a combination of complex and inter-related circumstances”, rather than single, identifiable shocks (ibid). Such observations resonate closely with those of humanitarian actors within southern Africa who increasingly face new, ‘atypical’ challenges. Members of southern Africa’s Regional Interagency Standing Committee (RIASCO) have long acknowledged that effective humanitarian planning presupposes a clear understanding of the region’s risk profile. This prompted a call to investigate the threats to lives and livelihoods likely to confront southern Africa over the next decade, along with available capacities to address these challenges. RIASCO also sought greater clarity on the causal processes that may exacerbate population displacement, food insecurity, health emergencies, livelihood loss, as well as at-risk groups, including children and people living with HIV/AIDS. Such concerns led RIASCO, through the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), to formally commission a regional research team to investigate likely future humanitarian challenges in southern African and their associated implications for programming. Stellenbosch University (SU), through the Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme (DiMP) coordinated the study. This southern African project also complements more wide-ranging, systematic efforts to characterise emerging global humanitarian challenges and vulnerabilities to complex stresses. The broader Global Challenges Study, commissioned by UNOCHA and implemented by DARA, seeks to better anticipate and prepare for future humanitarian challenges. Mobilising new collaborations – southern African universities as research partners The research was carried out during 2012 by 33 researchers through four research hubs across the region. These involved the University of Antananarivo (Madagascar), North-West University (South Africa), Stellenbosch University (South Africa), the Technical University of Mozambique, along with independent researchers in Lesotho, Malawi and Johannesburg. The research adopted a ‘mixed-methods’ approach at regional, national and sub-national scales. This incorporated the collection of quantitative and qualitative data, drawing extensively on both secondary and primary information sources. Specifically, the research design involved a desk-top review of relevant reports and published literature on emerging disaster risk and humanitarian assistance issues. This was complemented by primary data collection in thirteen countries, with more than 200 interviews. The research design incorporated detailed analysis of all humanitarian emergencies that generated consolidated and flash appeals from 2000 – 2012, departing from the established practice of separating more environmentally-induced disasters from those of social, political and economic origin. This recognised that risks in southern Africa escalate due to the interplay of multiple risk and vulnerability drivers at different scales. Diverse emergency patterns – and increasingly complex Contrary to perceptions that southern Africa has a homogeneous and ‘low-risk’ profile, research results indicate a region exposed to a range of environmental and social pressures. Excluding the protracted humanitarian situations in Angola and Zimbabwe, 47 iv defined international humanitarian emergencies were identified between 2000 and 2012. The research shows that 37 of these were associated with an identifiable environmental shock/stressor, while seven were linked to socio-political triggers and three to epidemics. Environmental emergencies led to 26 flood-related appeals, each of which reportedly assisted more than 500,000 people. Many of these were due to identifiable weather systems, such as Cyclone Eline in 2000 or Cyclone Favio in 2007. Others were the result of locally occurring floods and humanitarian situations aggravated by constrained national and regional governance. From 2000-2012, more than 14 million people reportedly required international humanitarian assistance for flood-related events, including the five million who were affected by Cyclone Eline. The results highlight the short recurrence intervals for major shocks for many countries and the annual co-occurrence of multiple shocks, even in countries that do not seek external assistance. During the past decade, large numbers of southern Africans have been affected by human- induced emergencies. The research signals a transition from conditions of armed conflict seen in the 1980s and 1990s to social conflicts. These often occur in in urban areas, particularly in national capitals. Humanitarian intervention was triggered by a wide spectrum of social, political
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