Geographical Reports 5

Published by The Department of Geography, University of Umeå

GÖSTA WEISSGLAS

Studies on Service Problems in the Sparsely Populated Areas in Northern Sweden

UMEÄ 1975 "en plcuU, òom knappaòt kan l oxd fåJutäljaA, däx vaxgen ylade ock ulven finöA ..."

UW> Haóóelòkog Studies on Service Problems in the Sparsely Populated Areas in Northern Sweden

AKADEMISK AVHANDLING

som med vederbörligt tillstånd av Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten vid Umeå universitet för vinnande av filosofie doktorsexamen framlägges för offentlig granskning vid Geografiska institutionen, föreläsningssal Fl, Södra paviljongerna, Umeå universitet den 29 april 1975, kl. 10.00

av GÖSTA WEISSGLAS

fil lic

Centraltryckeriet, Umeå 1975

III

Preface

This thesis is based mainly on the research and the studies carried out within the framework of the project called Glesbygdsforskningen (Project for Studies of Sparsely Populated Areas) at the Department of Geography at the university of Umeå, under the direction of professor Erik Bylund. The project was initiated in 1966 in accordance with the greatly in­ creasing interest in regional political issues and regional economic problems, and it has been financed partly by grants from Stiftelsen Riks­ bankens Jubileumsfond (the Tri-Centennial Fund of the Bank of Sweden), partly by money from the Home Office and the Ministry for the Labour Mar­ ket. Even from the beginning this project had a multi-disciplinary charac­ ter, and a direct result of the cooperation with the Department of Socio­ logy was, above a ll, a study based on a questionnaire, answered by the in­ habitants in a number of sparsely populated communes. (See further chap­ ter 2.6).

This thesis would not have been possible to accomplish without the aid, the knowledge and the enthusiasm of a great many people. I should like to express my gratitude to my tutor, professor Erik Bylund, and also to late Mrs Ingrid Burvall, to Kathrin Haraldsson, Margit Söderberg and Sigfrid Fjäll ström. I am also grateful to Olof Erson, Ulf Wiberg and Berndt öqvist. It has been very stimulating to cooperate directly with them. I should a l­ so like to thank Einar Holm, whose knowledge of methods and techniques has been of great help to me, and all my collègues at the Department of Geo­ graphy who have been extremely generous by contributing their viewpoints during the course of this work. Thanks to many undergraduates who have written papers in connection to this project, valuable data have been made available. I am also grateful to Anders Lundström for his efforts at trans­ lating my thesis from Swedish into English.

Financial support has been obtained from the Tri-Centennial Fund of the Bank of Sweden, Expertgruppen för Regional Utredningsverksamhet (ERU), from the University of Umeå and from the commune of Vilhelmina.

Umeå in January 1975.

Gösta Weissglas IV

Contents

Preface I I I

Contents IV

List of Tables VI

List of Figures VII

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Terminology and Delimitation of Areas 1

1.2 The Growth of the Problem of Sparsely Populated Areas 5

1.3 Aims and Arrangement of This Study 11

1.4 Studies With a General Reference to This Thesis 16

2 THE PUBLIC REPORTS 20

2.1 Introduction 20

2.2 The Period 1940-1950 21

2.3 Comments 29

2.4 The Period 1950-1965 30

2.5 Comments 41

2.6 'Glesbygdsutredningen' - TheInvestigation of the Sparsely Populated Areas. 42

3 THE BEHAVIOURAL-SCIENCE FRAME OF REFERENCE 48

4 DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION OF PROBLEM AREAS 63

4.1 The Basis of Reference 63

4.2 On Classification Principles 65

4.3 On Electoral Wards 67

4.4 The Classifications 70 4.4.1 General Principles of Measurement 70 4.4.2 Classification With Regards to the Proportion of Aged People 71 V

Depopulation and Changes in the Age Structure 78 Classification by Centrality 83 The Measure of Centrality 83 The Measurement of Centrality 87 Classification With Regard to Combined Qualities 89 The Method of Measurement 89 The Regional Distribution of the Variables 95 A Regional Comment 96 The Result of the Classification 97 A Regional Comment 102 The Population in Different Types of Wards 105

THE STRATEGIC LOCALITIES 111

Planning and Central Place Hierarchies 111

The Discussion of Strategic Localities 120 Criteria of Measurements and Calculation of Population Bases 123

On the Size of Strategic Localities 133 The Addition to Purchasing Power by the Popu­ lation of the Hinterland 133 The Local Shortfall 135 The Addition to Purchasing Power by G-areas 138 The Addition to Purchasing Power by Localities 140 Summary of the Addition to Purchasing Power by the Population of the Hinterland 141 Changes in the Threshold Value Through Time 144

ON PLANNING IN SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS 149

Theoretical Aspects 149 On Demands and Needs 154 The Concept of Accessibility 160

Planning on a Regional Level 160

Planning on a Commune Level 173 The Out-Patient Health Services in a G-area. Data From the Commune of Vindeln in the County of Väster­ botten. 174 Accessibility and Transport Work 178 Comments 185 Concluding Remarks 189

SUMMARY 193 APPENDIX 198 BIBLIOGRAPHY 210 VI List of Tables

Table 1:1 The Population in the Six Northernmost Counties 1900-1940.

1:2 The Agricultural Population in the Six Norternmost Counties 1930-1940.

1:3 The Changes in the Total Population in the Six Norternmost Counties 1940-1950.

1:4 The Changes in the Population of the Localities in the Six Norternmost Counties 1940-1950.

1:5 The Agricultural Population in the Six Norternmost Counties 1940-1950.

1:6 The Changes in the Population 1950-1965 in Total and in G- areas.

4:1 Basic Data of the Electoral Wards.

4:2 The Proportion of Aged People, Nationally and in the Re­ search Area. Quartile and Median Values.

4:4 Population and Median Age in the Merged Communes of Väster­ botten and Norrbotten 1950, 1960 and 1970.

4:5 The Population of the Electoral Wards Grouped According to Centrality.

4:6 The Proportion of Yes-answers for the Variables x-j - Xg Distributed Over Counties.

4:7 The Electoral Wards in Each County, Respectively, Grouped According to Attribution to Levels.

4:8 The Population in the Electoral Wards, Grouped According to S-L Level.

5:1 The Calculations of Threshold Values.

5:2 Total Population of the Research Area, Distributed Over Localities and G-areas.

5:3 Localities Classified by Size.

5:4 % Population by Size of Locality.

5:5 Weighted Values of Completeness.

5:6 Distribution of Purchasing Power Within G-areas.

5:7 Reduction of the Degree of Completeness.

5:8 The Proportion of Purchasing Power in Classes of Locality Size After Reduction for Own Degree of Completeness.

5:9 Reduction for a Lower Capacity of Consumption. VII

6:1 Distribution According to Level Responsible for Treatment.

6:2 Distribution According to Level of Treatment First Consulted.

6:3 Population Consulting Health Service in a Close and a Remote Zone, Broken Down by Age and Level of Treatment.

6:4 Factor Scores for the Calculation of Transport Work.

6:5 Weight Scores for the Estimation of Accessibility.

6:6 Accessibility and Transport Work. An Analysis of the Amsele Area.

8:1 Tables Showing Accessibility and Transport Work According to Figures 6:9 and 6:10.

8:2 List of Publications in the Series Glesbygdsforskningen.

List of Figures

Figure 1:1 The Research Area.

1:2 The Population of Sweden 1880-1970.

4:1 Deductive Classification.

4:2 Induct i ve Cl a s s i fi cati on.

4:3 Population in Electoral Wards in BD-W Counties. Cumulative Curve.

4:4 Diagram of the Distribution of Those Aged 65+. Distribution Over Counties Composed With the Distribution Over the Total Research Area.

4:5 Proportion of the Population in the Ages 65+ in the County of Västerbotten 1965.

4:6 The Proportion of the Population Aged 0-19 in the County of Västerbotten 1965.

4:7 Regression Lines and Correlation Between X = Change in Median Age and Y =Change in Total Population 1950-1960.

4:8 Regression Lines and Correlation Between X = Change in Median Age and Y =Change in Total Population 1960-1970.

4:9 Level Criteria for S-L Classification.

4:10 Diagram Showing the Classified Electoral Wards in Each County, Respectively.

4:11 S-L Classification 1965. All levels.

4:12 S-L Classification 1965. Level S-4. VIII

4:13 S-L Classification 1965. Level S-3.

5:1 The Aid Areas and the Suggested Priority Places (1969).

5:2 GRUP's Classification Scheme.

5:3 The O fficial Plan for Development of the Regional Struc­ ture.

5:4 Diagram of the Degree of Completeness by Size of Groups. All Functions Included.

5:5 Diagram of the Degree of Completeness by Size of Groups. Each Service Function Analyzed Separately.

5:6 Central Places and Spatial Demand Cones According to Christaller's Marketing Principle.

5:7 Schematic Illustration of Reluctance to Travel.

5:8 Diagram of Shortfall in Purchasing Power Over time.

6:1 Medical Care in Västerbotten.

6:2 Frequency Adjusted Average Distance to Out Patient Medical Care in Västerbotten.

6:3 Distribution of Wards After Classification by a) Frequency Adjusted Average Distance and b) Transport Volume.

6:4 Diagram Showing the Ratio Between Transformed Scores of Frequency Adjusted Average Distance and Transport Volume.

6:5 Ratio Between Transformed Scores of Frequency Adjusted Average Distance and Transport Volume.

6:6 Frequency Adjusted Average Distance to Out Patient Health Care.

6:7 Transport Volume Per Head to Out Patient Health Care.

6:8 The Commune of Vindeln.

6:9 Regional Consequences in the Amsele Area.

6:10 Regional Consequences in The Vindeln Area.

.6:11 Accessibility Zones, According to Table 6:6.

6:12 Accessibility Zones, According to Table 8:2 b).

8:1 Centrality Scores.

8:2 Flow Chart for S-L Classification.

8:3 Places With a Population Over 2200 (1970). 1 Introduction

1.1 Terminology and Delimitation of Areas

The t itle of this thesis is Studies on Service Problems in the Sparsely Populated Areas in Northern Sweden. It implies a significant delimitation. Since 1967, a large scale project, called 1 Glesbygdsforskningen1 (Project for Studies of Sparsely Populated Areas) has been carried out in the De­ partment of Geography of the University of Umeå in northern Sweden. The project has been divided into two parts: one dealing with labour market problems, one with service problems, thus covering the two central issues in this field . As the t it le of this thesis suggests, the author has been concerned with the service problems.

The Swedish concept 'glesbygd' has no adequate equivalent in English. As a formal concept, it is one of the categories used in statistical compi­ lations, e.g. in Folk- och Bostadsräkningen (the Swedish census, FoB). As a general concept, it includes scattered habitations and small villages and homesteads, especially in remote areas. Scattered habitations, close to relatively big centres, are not characterized as 'glesbygd' in the pub­ lic mind. Moreover, to many people 'glesbygd' has been closely associated with the unwanted developments that have occurred in the depopulated areas in Sweden. The English expressions 'distressed areas', 'backward areas' and 'depressed areas' have not been regarded as suitable for use in this thesis, as they might evoke the idea of declining industrial areas. Here the terms 'depopulated areas' and 'sparsely populated areas' will sometimes be used as translations of the Swedish word 'glesbygd'. It is essential to emphasize, however that "glesbygd" is not only a formal concept, but also a concept with certain negative connotations. In contexts where 'depopu­ lated areas' and 'sparsely populated areas' are not fu lly adequate, I have made the expression 'G-areas' to denote 'glesbygd'. In compounds, too, (G- problems, G-communes, G-research), G stands for 'glesbygd'. These expres­ sions have been considered to be operationally suitable for this thesis, especially since the text was originally written in Swedish and then trans­ lated into English. 2

"Tätort" is another concept, which has no adequate equivalent in English. In the Official Statistics of Sweden i t denotes places with a certain den­ sity between the habitations and more than 200 inhabitants, and in the Eng­ lish translations in statistical compilations, like, for instance FoB, (the Swedish census) the English word "locality" is used as a synonym. "Locality" is thus used in this thesis whenever I have considered it necessary to point out that it is the formal concept of "tätort" that is referred to. (See al­ so note 2, chapter 1).

In a comparatively short time, Sweden has developed from a predominantly rural country into a nation which has passed a long way into the so called post-industrial society. There are significant variations in population den­ sity and economic structure within the country, however, and the d iffe­ rences have gradually increased since the break-through of industrialism. At the beginning of the 19th century, the degree of urbanization was very low and there were only three towns with more than 10 000 inhabitants - Stockholm, Gothenburg and KarlskronaJ hn 1970, 56,4% of the population lived in urban areas over 10 000 inhabitants, and the urbanization figure was 81,4%.^The re-structuring has, of course, implied extensive adaption problems, both in expanding and declining areas. But nevertheless at the same time, the country has reached a high level of welfare. When the G- problems are being discussed in the following, it is therefore important to bear in mind, that the problems are minor ones compared with those in less prosperous parts of the world. Thus they are somewhat of a 'maladie de la richesse'.

For more than half a century, the so called 'Norrlandsproblemet' (the Norr­ land problem) has been consistently debated. In the past, the Norrland pro­ blem meant the regulation of the development of the country. It was also a matter of how to cope with the demand for labour of the Norrlandic indus­ tries. Since the second world war, there has been a reduction of settle­ ment and a depopulation causing problems for the region involved. The popu­ lation decreases, and the average age of the population increases. The num­ ber of jobs available becomes insufficient. The long distances make i t d if­ fic u lt to keep contacts. The supply of services decreases, shops close down, 3

schools are withdrawn, the demand for medical and geriatric care is be­ coming harder to meet. The costs to the communes for the services go up.^ In Sweden, all these things are referred to as 'glesbygdsproblem', G- problems. Of course such problems are not peculiar to Norrland. They occur whereever there is a depopulation process going on. But, seeing these problems from a quantitative point of view, in Sweden they are no doubt strongly associated with Norrland.^

The area dealt with in this thesis consists of Norrland on one hand, i.e . the five most northern counties (län), and the county of Kopparberg on the other, since it has many features in common with the counties of Norr- land.^Thus, the counties included are Kopparberg (W), Gävleborg (X), Jämtland (Z), Västernorrland (Y), Västerbotten (AC) and Norrbotten (BD). The detail studies in chapter 6 refer to areas in the county of Väster­ botten.

The delimitation of the area is made chiefly for practical reasons. More­ over, the "län" units are advantageous, because statistical data are al­ ready available for them, whereas such data are not available on a lower regional level. There would be good reasons for extending the research area in the south to parts of Värmland and Dalsland, but, taken as a whole, these areas differ too much from the delimited area.

Within the framework of the project, parts of the material in this thesis have been published previously in Swedish, above all in the series 'Gl es - bygdsforskningen', a stencilled series of reports of a working paper charac­ ter. References to such publications will be given in each chapter respec­ tively, and source-critical comments have therefore received li t t l e emphasis in this thesis. Instead the stress has been laid on the discussion of methods and principles. In the text, these previous studies will be referred to as report nr xx. A lis t of the reports that have been published in 'Glesbygds- forskningen' up to the autumm of 1974, w ill be given in the Appendix, table 8 :2 . 4

Figure 1:1 The Research Area

Southern L im it o f Research Area County Boundary Commune Boundary

Norrbotten County (BD)

Västerbotten County (AC)

Jämtland County (Z) Vaster- ^ Umeå norrland \ County

{** Gävle- borg County Kopparberg kCounty (W

i

100 200 300km 5

1.2 The Growth of the Problem of Sparsely Populated Areas

From an international point of view, Sweden is a sparsely populated coun­ try, and it has been so as long as records have been kept. In 1750, when Swedish population statistics came into being, there were 1.8 m ill, in- habitants living in an area of 449 000 km . Approx. 4/5 of the population are estimated to have earned their living in agriculture. In 1800, the population of Sweden had risen to over 2.3 million and by 1880, it stood at 4,5 million inhabitants.

The following figure shows the population trends in Sweden from 1880 to 1970, in localities and sparsely inhabited areas.

Figure 1:2 The Population of Sweden 1880-1970.

Pop. in Total population millions Population in localities

Population in G-areas

8 BO 1900 1920 1940 I960

The most striking feature of the development of the G-areas is the change in population. In the following, a number of demographic data will be given to throw further light upon these changes. The account is based on census figures. To make the table more readable, 20-year intervals have been chosen. The reader should note, that the population changes shown are in accordance with many other developments in Sweden, such as the process of depopulation running from the south to the north, and from the coast to the inland. Even up to the 1960's, the inner part of Norrbotten seemed to function as a 'bree­ ding reservation', a fact, that was regarded as something positive in the o fficial reports on Norrland in the 1940's and 50's. 6

During the la tte r half of the 19th century, the relative proportion of population dependent upon agriculture started to decline and after 1880 the absolute numbers also diminished. By the turn of the century, the popu­ lation dependent upon agriculture comprised 55% of the to tal, in industry and crafts 28%, in commerce and transport 10%, and in the civil service and professions 7%. The degree of urbanization was comparatively modest: 36% lived in localities and 64% in G-areas.

In 1920, the part of the population occupied in agriculture decreased to 44% of the total population, and 35% earned their living in industry and crafts. The proportion of the population employed in commerce and transport had increased by 4%, whereas the share of the total population employed in public service was nearly unchanged. Approximately 45% of the population now lived in towns or localities.

Twenty years later, in 1940, the agricultural population comprised only 34% of the total population, whereas those employed in industry and crafts were 38%, those in commerce and transport 20%, and those in the civil ser­ vice etc., 8%. The population in localities was over 56% and in the G-areas just under 44%. The total population of Sweden was 6 371 000 in the same year. In the six northernmost counties, the population figures had developed as shown in table 1:1.

Table 1:1 The Population in the Six Northernmost Counties 1900-1940 TTOOO's).

County 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 Change 1900-1930 Change 1930-1940 absolute relative absolute relative figures figures figures figures Koppar­ berg 218 234 254 250 249 + 32 +14,7 - 1 - 0,4 Gävle­ borg 238 254 268 280 274 + 42 +17,6 - 6 - 2,1 Väster­ norrland 232 251 265 279 275 + 47 +20,2 - 4 - 1,4 Jämtland 111 118 134 135 139 + 34 +30,6 + 4 + 3,0 Väster­ botten 144 161 182 204 220 + 60 +41,7 +16 + 7,8 Norr­ botten 135 161 183 200 216 + 65 +48,1 +16 + 8,0 7

It is evident that in the three northernmost counties, there continued to be an increase in the population between 1930-40, whereas there was a population decrease in the other three counties. In the county of Koppar­ berg (W), the decline started as early as after 1920, and in the two other counties, after 1930.

The following table shows the changes in the size of the agricultural popu­ lation of the six northernmost counties during 1930-40.

Table 1:2 The Agricultural Population in the Six Northernmost Counties 1930-1940 (10001 s ).

County 1930 1940 Change abs.fig:s re i.fig : s abs.fig:s rei. fig :s abs.fig:s r e i.fig:s Kopparberg 101 40,5 88 35,3 -13 - 5,2 Gävleborg 99 35,4 95 34,8 - 4 - 0,6 Väster- norrl and 106 37,9 108 39,1 + 2 + 1,2 Jämtland 77 57,6 77 55,6 0 - 2 Väster­ botten 119 58,6 126 57,4 + 7 - 0,8 Norrbotten 95 47,7 102 47,2 + 7 - 0,5

Even in 1930, the agricultural part of the population was much higher in the three northernmost counties. The difference between the two groups of counties is s till more obvious in the census of 1940, when the proportion of people in agriculture in the county of Kopparberg had considerably de­ clined.

From 1940 to 1950, the population of Sweden increased from 6 371 000 to 7 042 000 inhabitants. The degree of urbanization of the whole country was 66% i.e ., an apparent change from 56% in 1940. Strong tendencies towards a clustering of more expansive localities into conurbation areas had already started to predominate.

In 1950, the agricultural part of the population was 25% of the whole coun­ try, in industry 42% and in service 33%. The development in the six northern­ most counties is reflected in the table below. Table 1:3 The Changes in the Total Population in the Six Northernmost Counties T940-1950 (1000*s ) . ~ ”

County 1940 1950 Change abs. rei. Kopparberg 249 267 +18 + 9,2 Gävleborg 274 285 +11 + 4,0 Västernorrland 275 284 + 9 + 3,3 Jämtland 139 144 + 5 + 3,6 Västerbotten 220 232 +12 + 5,5 Norrbotten 216 241 +25 +11,6

By contrast with the previous 10-year period, the population has increased in all the six counties, and this increase is mainly due to the increase of the population of the localities. To illustrate this, the change in the figures of the population of these areas during the same period is shown in table 1:4.

Table 1:4 The Changes in the Population of the Localities in the Six Northernmost Counties 1940-1950 (10001s) .

County 1940 1950 Change abs. r e i. abs. re1. abs. r e i. Kopparberg 119 48,0 175 65,5 +56 +17,5 Gävleborg 139 50,9 169 59,2 +30 + 8,3 Västernorrland 129 46,8 159 55,9 +30 + 9,1 Jämtland 35 25,2 55 38,1 +20 +13,9 Västerbotten 73 33,0 106 45,8 +33 +12,8 Norrbotten 76 35,2 129 53,3 +53 +18,1

There has been a substantial increase in the population of the localities, and, at the same time, a considerable change in occupations has occurred. Table 1:5 shows the change in the agricultural population during the same period. 9

Table 1:5 The Agricultural Population in the Six Northernmost Counties 1940-1950 (lOOO's).

County 1940 1950 Change abs. r e i. Kopparberg 88 71 -17 -19,3 Gävleborg 95 72 -23 -24,2 Västernorrland 108 80 -28 -25,9 Jämtland 77 62 -15 -19,4 Västerbotten 126 107 -19 -15,0 Norrbotten 102 87 -15 -14,7

As is shown in table 1:5, the agricultural population has considerably diminished, and it was in the period of 1940-50 that the depopulation of the G-areas and also of the northernmost counties began. The counties Y-BD show increases in the agricultural population of up to 7% between 1930-40. For the next 10-year period, the decrease percentages are all over 14,7%.

Norborg (1968)^has shown the regional distribution of the changes in the agricultural population of Sweden. At the beginning of the 20th century, the agricultural population decreased most strongly in the south-western parts of Sweden. After that period, the area with the maximal regression has gradually shifted towards the east and north. Not until the 1950's is the area with maximal regression to be found in Norrland.

Norborg also shows how the structural change in agriculture can chiefly be regarded as an effect of the general social changes in Sweden. The changes have been canalized by the regional hierarchy, following the same pattern as other innovation processes, and the internal conditions in agriculture have only affected details in this pattern.

But, because of the pattern of scattered habitations in Norrland, the de­ population process there had more drastic consequences, at an early stage. At the time of the firs t public reports analysed in this thesis (chapter 2), i.e . when the war broke out in 1939, i t was already being claimed that the crisis of Swedish agriculture would be an over-production crisis. During 'normal' years, Sweden is, by and large, self-supporting. In Norrland, it 10 was stated, rationalization was strongly required. At this early stage, there was already a discussion of farms insufficient to provide a liv e li­ hood, “which sometimes in an undesirable way, might be an obstacle to the owner looking for other job opportunit i es".^The agriculture of Norr­ land was to be planned and re-structured, by amalgamations or by recla­ mation. But reclamation might only be carried out in connection with pre­ viously cultivated land, the main purpose being socio-political, i.e . the holdings were often too small. In the report quoted, i t was stated that it was in fact the concern for forestry that was the only valid reason for preserving parts of the scattered holdings on the periphery.

After World War I I , Parliament authorized an agricultural programme aimed at making Swedish agricultural policy self-supporting, in case of isolation, a natural goal when one considers the experience of wartime. But even a few years after this policy had been authorized, production had increased to reach a surplus of 6-8% due to the rapid pace of rationalisation.

As far as Norrland was concerned, the consequence was that the planned expansion of arable land was carried out to only a very limited extent. In­ stead, the importance of urban trades increased, especially in connection with the boom in the beginning of the 1950's. The outflow of population at­ tracted to the southern and central parts of Sweden and towards the coastal areas of Norrland was in operation.

In 1965, Sweden had a population of 7 766 000 inhabitants. The part of the population living in G-areas was 22,6%. The changes in the total population and in the population in G-areas, respectively, during 1950-65, in the re­ search area and in the whole country, are shown in table 1:6. 11

Table 1:6 The changes in the Population 1950-1965, in Total and in G-areas.

Total Population (1000's) Population in G-areas (1000's)

County 1950 1965 Change 1950 1965 Change abs. re i. abs. r e i. Koppar­ berg 267 282 + 15 + 5,6 92 66 - 26 -28,3 Gävle­ borg 285 293 + 8 + 2,8 116 77 - 39 -33,6 Väster­ norrland 284 277 - 7 - 2,5 125 89 - 36 -28,8 Jämtland 144 131 - 13 - 9,0 89 67 - 22 -24,7 Väster­ botten 232 234 + 2 + 0,9 125 96 - 29 -23,2 Norr­ botten 241 259 + 18 + 7,5 113 76 - 37 -32,7 Sweden 7042 7772 +730 +10,4 2383 1754 -629 -26,4

As is shown in the table, the population in G-areas has drastically de­ creased, and in the research area, the average decrease is 28,6%.

The year 1965 is taken as the final year in this account. Since 1960, the Swedish censuses have been carried out every five years. At the in itia l stages of the studies in this thesis, the figures from 1965 where the most recent ones available.

1.3 Aims and Arrangement of This Study

G-problems are the side effects of urbanization. Whereas problems of over­ crowding and economic overheating are commonplace for citizens and city planners, the population of G-areas are affected by economic stagnation, decline and depopulation as well as deterioration of service and contacts. Not so very long ago, all these things did not affect the planner in G- areas, simply because such a planner did not exist. Today there is a plan­ ning organization for G-areas, chiefly attached to the new, bigger com­ munes and on a county-regional level. On the other hand, decisions with implications for planning have naturally been made during previous periods, above all in connection with sectorial considerations on a national level. 12

It would be wrong, however, to accuse the authorities of having neglec­ ted the problems. The ‘o ffic ia l1 view can be observed in Statens offent­ liga utredningar, (SOU). It is easy to see in them that a regionally centred standpoint was gradually growing in the 1950's, even i f the in­ fluential trades union organization, LO (corresponding to TUC in B ritain), and Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen (AMS, Labour Market Board) s till at that time stressed very strongly the necessity of a continuing flow of labour from north to south and from the inland to the coast. But as always, there was an associated time-lag and it was not until 1965 that Sweden adopted an active locational policy. As late as in the 501s and the early 60's, the view was that the speed of immigration into city areas was "an inevitable feature of a spontaneous development".^

It is evident from the tables in the previous section, how rapidly the migration process has developed in the most typical G-counties. The lo­ cational and regional-political measures, adopted at an accelerating speed from 1965 onwards, give the impression of ad-hoc solutions. The economic expansion in Sweden since the second world war has concealed the regional problems that have become the drawbacks of this expansion. The intensity of the migration from the G-areas in Norrland is a somewhat tragi-comic example of these draw-backs. In trade booms, the intensity of migration increases. In a less favourable economic situation, the speed of migration slackens, since fewer people are employed in the expanding industrial areas in southern and middle Sweden.

It is interesting to note that the trends towards regionalization have gone hand in hand with a more individually centred attitude by the authorities. Man tends to be seen in an ecological context. The environmental aspects are being stressed more and more. The suburban areas, constructed in a hur­ ry, are questioned, and governmental organs, such as Konsumentverket (Con­ sumers' Board) and konsumentombudsman (Consumers' ombudsman) have been established for the benefit of the individual. ‘Glesbygdsutredningen‘ , too, which was set up in 1966, is an expression of the awareness of the neces­ sity of the measures that have to be taken to master the d ifficu lties ex­ perienced by individuals in a period of contraction.^ 13

At the international level, similar and associated problems have been pointed out. Well-known studies of regional development planning and methods of analysing economic processes via regional units are, e.g. Isard: Methods of Regional Analysis (1960) and Me Loughlin"s Urban and Regional planning (1969). Rostow"s generalization of the historical de­ velopment as a set of stages of growth, is regarded as being capable of application at the regional level. Myrdal"s model of "the Process of Cumulative Causation" is obviously applicable, by showing how new in­ crements of activity and growth will tend to be concentrated in the a l­ ready expanding regions because of their derived advantages rather than in the remaining areas of the country. 1C%n the other hand, studies of contraction processes and 'winding-up' planning are in general lacking.

The background of the project in which this thesis is a part, is, above a ll, the necessity of quantifying and locating the G-problems. It is taken for granted that only a shapshot can be given. The development process cau­ sing the G-problems, is extremely complex, and isolated factors, such as technical development, the needs of communication consumption habits, and influences from outside, (such as regional policies) are only pieces of a mosaic, d iffic u lt to perceive. Factors, which may seem irrelevant, are often relevant for deeply rooted historical reasons, and they may have a strong influence on the attitudes of the population and on thedecision makers, and Swedish regional policy has, as been mentioned above, mainly aimed at stabilizing regions and places of some vigour, rather than trying to turn the direction of the flow.

As has been mentioned above, this thesis deals mainly with one aspect of the G-problems, namely with the issues of service. These problems can be looked upon from a macro- as well as from a micro-point of view, and they involve both economic and physical aspects. The economic aspect concerns transport costs, threshold values and substitution effects. The physical aspect includes such things as the organization of transports, the size and position of a node and the mesh-size of the network of available ser­ vice amenities. 14

On a macro-level, the stab ility of the upper stages of the hierarchy of places is of great interest. The most important function of most major centres of the G-areas in Norrland is to serve as service centres. The locating of industries to those centres is a relatively new phenomenon. Their main function has been to provide goods and services for their own inhabitants and for the population of the hinterland. In a structural ana­ lysis approach on the macro-level, it is therefore natural to use this main function as a starting-point, especially if the analysis is intended to give a picture of the importance of the centre for its hinterland.

On the micro-level, the delimitation of areas and the quantifying of pro­ blems are central tasks, as well as discussions and analyses of planning strategies. No matter if planning is aiming at stabilizing the situation, relieving the living conditions during a period of transition or at direc­ ting migration deliberately from the scattered habitations to the major nodes, there is an obvious need to define and to quantify the G-problems.

It seems as if economic considerations on a national level, such as those which affect employment, education and directed migration, have chiefly tended to take a centralizing course. The trend is evident in public govern­ mental publications, e.g., and in reports from Landsorganisationen (TUC). Within physical planning, however, the target has often been more centri­ fugal: better roads in peripheral areas, restoring habitations remotely situated, extended network of electricity and telephones, etc. The physical structure is often dealt with regionally and locally, whereas economic poli­ cy is debated and dealt with on an aggregated, national level. In Sweden, as well as in most other countries, regional accounting is something which does not exist in p r a c tic e .^

In the circumstances referred to above, there is obviously a latent reason for conflicts, intensified not least by the predominant sectorization of social planning that has been prevailing in Sweden up to the end of the 1960"s. Thus, decisions within one sector often causes unforeseen conse­ quences within other sectors. Further on in this thesis I have used the expression 'unconscious regional policy1 to describe such phenomena. 15

The problems are interesting and well worth studying. To penetrate the public reports, available for nearly all major political issues in Sweden, is one way of reflecting this dualism and, at the same time, of giving a survey of the ideas behind the contemporary Swedish regional policy. For this purpose the regional policy from 1940 onwards has been considered to be of special interest, and a survey of a number of reports are summa­ rized in a separate chapter. The reports have all in common that they are dealing with regional issues. The reason for including such a summary in this thesis is mainly to make the reader familiar with the regional poli­ tical debate reflected in the reports, and, thereby, also with the basis for decisions that was available to the government when the decisions were made that had a heavy impact on the G-areas. I have chosen to make a chrono­ logical survey, above all because the reports accounted for were so hetero- genious that, in many cases, a thematic account of them would not have made much sense. The reports have been selected from an extensive collection of reports as being the most representive ones. They all deal with issues with apparently regional implications, both economic and physical. Moreover, to my mind, such a survey has a value of its own. Only by knowing the previous views on these problems can one give an account of today's situation that can contribute to the forming of a basis for an estimate of the future.

The aim of this thesis is to reflect the G-problems from different angles, from a macro as well as from a micro level, in order to try to give a broad­ ened basis for a necessary future planning of measures. Point by point, the sub-aims may be summed up in the following way: a) to give a survey of some of the most important public reports in order 1) to give a background to contemporary Swedish regional policies, 2) to indicate certain target conflicts that may emerge in connection to sectorial economic and physical planning. b) to give a basis for the planning of an improved environment in the de­ populated areas, by analysing the location and the extention of the problems, connected with the supply of services in the six northernmost counties in Sweden. 16 c) to define the basis of a stable place structure by means of a strate­ gic locality system, by estimating the minimum size for a place in which the supply of services can be kept at a relatively high level, even i f the population in the surrounding area drastically decreases, using estimates of the consumer base of the area. d) to discuss methods of planning the supply of services in sparsely popu­ lated areas.

The arrangement of this thesis will in general follow the above-mentioned points. In the firs t part of each chapter there will be a discussion of the main issues. In chapter 2, the public reports will be dealt with, ac­ cording to point a), and an account of the principle viewpoints of Gles- bygdsutredningen (The Investigation of the Sparsely Populated Areas) will be given. The above-mentioned points b-d w ill be dealt with in chapters 4-6. A summary w ill be given in chapter 7. Chapter 3 is called 'The Be­ havioural Science Frame of References. In this chapter there is a survey of sociological and other behavioural scientific studies, directly or indi­ rectly forming the references of the author for the discussions in chapters 4-6, concerning classification principles, standards of service and planning methods.

1.4 Studies With a General Reference to This Thesis

The survey of the public reports comprises the period 1940-64, with one ex­ ception. Since 1964, a great number of public reports, scientific studies and many polemical books have dealt with the Norrland question and the G-' problems. As has been mentioned above, the books with a more sociological and antropological approach will be discussed in chapters 2 and 3. A selec­ tion of relevant studies will be mentioned here briefly: The set of essays "Norrländska framtidsperspektiv" (Perspectives on the future of Norrland) deals with population and capital questions, industrial enterprises and transport, consumption habits and cultural problems. A number of experts have contributed essays to this volume. Gösta Lindhagen dealt with the 17 transport question in G-areas using a central place-theoretical approach, in his thesis "Kostnader för lokala transporter vid olika lokalisering hos näringsliv och befolkning"(1968). Anders Alvarsson outlined a plan­ ning system for a typical G-commune (Vilhelmina in the county of Väster­ botten) in the report "Glesbygdsplanering, en problemanalys" (1970). This area was also dealt with by a team from the Department of Communications in the study "Lokal trafikservice: Modellplanering i Vilhelmina" (1968).

The studies carried out in parallel within the G-research project are, of course, of special interest in this context. Above a ll, the studies by Qlof Erson and Einar Holm (appendix, p.208), on the labour market situation in G-areas, should be mentioned, as well as Erik Bylund's "Glesbygdsproblemet - Norrlandsproblemet", "Arbete, Serviceunderlag och tätortsstruktur i Norr­ ländsk glesbygd" (1972), and other papers concerning Swedish regional pro­ blems and location policy (see list of references).

In our neighbouring country, Norway, a number of studies relating to the G- problems have been published. For this thesis Vi dar Vanberg's "Mål of Midler i utkantströkenes serviceforsyning" (1972) and the collection of essays "Rapport fra nordisk seminar om regionalpolitikkens mål og midier" (1969) are of direct interest.

As has been mentioned above, a more active regional planning was carried out in the middle of the 196Cfs. The increased planning resources for the counties, being a result of this active policy, have brought about the two- co-ordinated county_j)lann^^ 'Länsplanering 1967' and 'Länsprogram 1970', as well as "Regional- och trafikpolitik" by Backlund and others (1969), and a study by Ake G Andersson: "Glesbygd och lokaliseringspolitik. En ana­ lys av Dalslands arbetsmarknadsproblem" (1967). Public reports, not dealt with in chapter 2, are ERU's (Expert Group on Regional Studies) reports "Balanserad regional utveckling" (1970) and "Orter i regional samverkan" (1974) both with appendices. A study, also emanating from a central govern­ mental level, is the publication 'Glesbygd' (1969), published by Kungl. Maj:ts kansli (H.M. Chancery). ERU has also published a collection of essays "Regioner att leva i. Elva forskare om regionalpolitik och välstånd" (1972). 18

As has been mentioned above, the following chapter deals with a number of public reports, initiated and published during 1940-64. The survey has to be a summary one, and the stress is as mentioned above, laid on matters connected with questions dealt with in chapters 4, 5 and 6, i.e . service supply, central place hierarchies, systems of strategic localities and planning principles. 19

Notes to chapter 1

1) Montgomery (1947) p. 17. 2) Centres with more than 2Q0 inhabitants are here regarded as "urban"“ a very low figure compared with international standards. 3) Kungl. Maj:ts kansli (1969). 4) Bylund (1966). 5) Norrland consists of Lappland, Norrbotten, Västerbotten, Ångermanland, Medelpad, Hälsingland, Gästrikland, Jämtland and Härjedalen. 6) Norborg (1968). 7) SOU 1943:39 p. 90. Translated quotation. 8) Sandlund (1971) p. 47. 9) See chapter 2. 10) For a detailed discussion, see Keeble: Models of economic development, in Chorley-Haggett (1967). 11) In SOU 1974:1 ERU discusses the possibilities of applying regional accounting as a general planning instrument. 20 2 The Public Reports

2.1 Introduction

For a long time the public committee system has been one of the most im­ portant factors in the political decision process in Sweden. Great social reforms have been regularly prepared by committees, the reports of which have been published in the series Statens Offentliga Utredningar (SOU). There is no equally extensive equivalent in other countries where the preparation of proposals for reform are generally the concern of the civil and governmental departments.

The expansion of the committee apparatus in the 20th century has made it many times bigger today than it was in the 19th century. From a relative point of view the fastest growth occurred before the first world war. At the beginning of 1972, 293 committees were a c tiv e , ranging from one-man- committees to large committees composed in a parliamentary way, engaging up to 100 people, expert groups and o ff ic ia l s ta ff included.^D uring the la s t decades the d is trib u tio n of p o litic a l parties w ithin the committee system has been close to the distribution of political parties in Parlia­ ment, but there is a trend towards a weaker pariiamentary basis. Partly this development is a result of the increasing representation of interest groups. In many aspects of society these organisations have taken over the role of representing the wishes of various groups of people, a role pre­ viously played by the political parties. Among these organisations are, e .g ., LO, TCO and SAF.2)

The reports that will be dealt with in this thesis have all a greater or lesser connection with the regional problems concerning northern Sweden and its sparsely populated areas. In some cases there is an indirect con­ nection only. What might be called 'unconscious' regional policy is some­ times relevant in those cases. Sandlund (1971) m aintains, e .g ., th at the Norrland problem is directly dependent on the speed of the expansion of Greater Stockholm. 21

The study refers to the period 1940-64. The outbreak of the war in 1939 faced Sweden with immediate and extensive problems of economic maintenance because of the iso la tio n caused by the war.

2.2 The Period 1940-1950

The economy of Norrland was weakly developed, and in 1940 motions were tabled in Parliament to establish a committee to take action for the promotion of economic l i f e in Norrland. A committee was set up in the same year, given the task of carrying out a preparatory survey. It was called "1940 års norrlandsutredning", with the geographer W. William- Olsson as the secretary, and in October 1943 i t delivered its report "Utredning angående Norrlands näringsliv" (SOU 1943:34). In many re­ spects the report is strikingly prescient in estimating the character and the extent of the Norrland problem. It pointed out that the economy of Norrland in th is context meant the in teractio n between its population and their means of support. The prevailing difficulties emanated from the lack of balance between these factors. The means of support were scarce in relation to the size of the population. A survey of the popula­ tion changes and the increasing "urbanism" shows that William-Olsson had observed the spreading mechanisms of depopulation: "Thus it can be esta­ blished that the population decrease of the rural areas, originally a phenomenon in some areas in southern Sweden, has spread fu rth e r north year by year, so that in the last years, 1935-38, there are only a few areas in Norrland where there is a population increase at all. In the rural areas of Norrland there will be a population decrease which will be very serious, if the trend of the decrease in the population spreading from south to north continues without restriction". A survey of the situa­ tion in different sectors of the economy of Norrland showed a weak struc­ ture throughout. William-Olsson discussed forestry and hinted at certain demands for concentration, above all depending on foreign competition. "The fo rest provides employment and income to the ru ral population to a great extent. It is the basis of the sawmills and the wood pulp industries, the most important industries in Norrland, and, furthermore, the most im­ portant export industries in Sweden In this connection, one problem pre­ dominates, one to which the committee must pay a tte n tio n , namely the loca- 22 tion of the wood industry. The main issue will be the very difficult problem of deciding in which p a rts , and in which places w ithin these parts, the bulk of the refining industrial activity should take place". Furthermore, William-Olsson stressed the importance of reducing the freight-costs and suggested that the possibilities of decentralizing the adm inistration should be examined. He pointed a t what is today re­ ferred to as the brain-drain, and he found the risks of "the leading forces" leaving Norrland to be great; and he warned of the negative effects that might be the result of closing down the small village 4) schools. '

This preparatory committee was succeeded by a new committee, which was called the "1944 års Norrlandskommitte". A report setting out its prin­ ciples, Norrländska utvecklingslinjer, (SOU 1949:1) was published in 1949.

In the introduction to Norrländska utvecklingslinjer it was noted that from a Norrlandic point of view, it was not acceptable that Norrland should have the character of being mainly an object of exploitation, and a number of fie ld s were mentioned where Norrland could be said to be in a less favourable position than other regions. The conditions in Norrland, however, varied too much regionally to make it possible to re­ gard it as a homogenous unit, and the committee pointed out that a mis­ leading simplification would be made if the general question of Norrland were to be construed as a collective expression of the demands within Norrland. As a starting-point for tackling the Norrland problems, the committee gave the following summary: "Due to a certain lag , in economic development, the labour of Norrland is not so effectively used for pro­ ductive and profitable activities as ought to be possible, especially not if the rich natural resources are taken into consideration. The develop­ ment of the economy has been held back by factors which p a rtly re la te to the fact that the position of Norrland has not always been sufficiently paid regard to in national politics. In these circumstances lie the rea­ sons why the living conditions in some parts of the region, for certain groups of the population in particular, are much more unfavourable than those regarded as normal in our country. In connection to what has been 23 said, the solution of the Norrland problems w ill be found c h ie fly in the development of the economy.. ."^ In this connection, they also de­ bated the question whether Norrland were a net producer or consumer, and they found that such questions were theoretical constructions, and that i t was impossible to give any comprehensive answer to the question. The studies presented do not, however, seem to show Norrland as on ba­ lance a net recipient. They consider it to be important to stress this fa c t, since measures to promote the economy of Norrland are too often regarded as subventions, without taking into consideration what Norrland has produced in the past and produces at present.

The committee found it desirable for Norrland to get the opportunity to make up for the lag that prevails in the Norrlandic economy. If the popu­ lation in the different parts of the country could compete on a more equal basis than had been the case so f a r , i t would be fo r the b enefit of the economy of the country as a whole. If, in the long run, no equali­ zation were brought about, the consequence would be th at labour would mi­ grate to the south, which would make the situatio n fo r those who stay in the sparsely populated areas worse, the sparsity being a heavy burden fo r the economy of Norrland. It was also regarded as important to point out that Norrland, and northern Norrland in particular, contributed greatly to the increase in the population of the country, which was of great im­ portance, "as the maintenance of the population figures is of vital inte­ rest for the country." But the population increase ought not to 'leak out' to the rest of the country. The economy of Norrland would need all the labour available. Thus, the population of Norrland should not have to mi­ grate to be able to earn a living in productive work. There should be an emigration of Norrlandic youth provided only that there were a bilateral mobility in other parts of the country.

Within the framework of this general outlook in favour of decentralization considerable advantages would be gained, however, i f the population of Norrland could be concentrated into a few areas according to the views of the committee. The committee thought that more densely populated areas would be advantageous from many points of view. The costs of roads and 24 other facilities in common could be limited, and a concentration of the settlements would give greater possibilities for services, such as communications, medical care, fire prevention, schools and adult education. A less sparsely populated area should also give better chances to meet the needs, material and cultural, of living in a com­ munity, as well as promoting the well-being in general of the popu­ la tio n . With these ideas in mind, the committee regarded i t as being in the interest of both the population and the economy of Norrland to strive for a greater concentration of the population.

Thus, a depopulation ought to take place from some remote, isolated farms, especially in the inland of Norrland, but the committee points out, that they do not "aim at a thinning of the population, but the contrary". The development must not imply that forestry would be de- 6 ) prived of its labour. }

The committee summed up the way the government's Norrland policy ought to be planned, in the following manner: Norrland ought to get the oppor­ tunity of making up for the lag, s till prevailing in the economy in this part of the country. The economy, based on the soil, the forests and the ore, should be developed, but, simultaneously, other parts of the eco­ nomy should be promoted and d iffe re n tia te d . By these means, the present and the future population could acquire the means of support, equal to those in southern Sweden, and thus they need not move to other parts of the country to earn their living. Thereby, and by additional measures, a population decrease in Norrland might be avoided. When building up the economy of Norrland, attention should be paid to the fact, that the con­ ditions for the development of the economy are not the same in the coas­ tal areas as in the inland, and that the conditions for the development of the economy as a whole vary very much in different parts of Norrland. Greater concentration of the settlements is desirable, but the need of labour in forestry should be taken into consideration. The population of Norrland ought to be given b e tte r chances to have a say in the economic l i f e of the country, by improvements in access to vocational education. Conditions ought to be created for a rise in cultural standards. Atten- 25 tion ought to be paid to the special social problems occurring in cer­ ta in parts of Norrland. An equalization between Norrland and the rest of the country, materially and culturally, should be aimed at.

The recommendations fo r a more concentrated settlem ent pattern was s t i l l more stressed, when dealing with the social and the cultural conditions. The committee thought that a concentration of the population in forestry areas should be into small villages conveniently situated in those areas. These v illa g e s , however, should be big enough to provide schools and com­ munity amenities to meet d iffe re n t kinds of economic and social needs. Such nuclei also require goods roads to the nearest lo c a lity with a doc­ to r and more specialised shops, fo r instance.

When the report was made, the members of the committee were n a tu ra lly influenced by the need after the second world war of securing all that could be produced w ithin the country. This view is expressed in s ta te ­ ments like the following: although a concentration of the population in­ to the major centres might seem to be the most rational thing, this would mean, that there will not be labour enough for forestry, and the natural assets, such as berries, fish and game, will not be utilized.

The Unions of Enterprisers ought to take an in te re s t in the building up of centres by stimulating such crafts or other enterprises that would make the conditions more convenient for those who live there, and thus also promote the forming of centres.

The needs fo r medical care should be met by an increase both in the num­ ber of public general practitioner's practices and in an expansion of the district nursing service. An increase in the number of small maternity hospitals was desirable, and they proposed to set up a regional hospital in Norrland, with Umeå as the most suitable place for such a hospital.

The question of schooling played an important role, when the location of the population was discussed. During the whole of the 194CTs, the r a tio n a li­ zation and centralization of schools in rural areas were carried out. An 26 elaborate rationalization plan was introduced by school rationalization experts (Folkskolans rationaliseringssakkunniga, SOU 1940:36). The com­ mittee had been set up mainly because of the increases in the cost of the school sector, but "in many schools there are so few pup ils, th at there are also pedagogical reasons for closing down the schools". Of course the members of the committee were aware of the consequences fo r the small villages and the scattered population that the closing down of the schools might have: "The resistance th at sometimes emerges, in connec­ tion with the shutting down of schools and centralization measures, cannot have any decisive impact, o f course, but, on the other hand, is should not be to ta lly ignored". Warnings were also given not to over-estim ate the costs saved by closing schools, since the costs of school transport and boarding easily tend to rise.^

The School Committee of 1940 ( 1940 års skolutredning (SOU 1946:11) ob­ served in particular the qualitative aspects, and, contrary to the Ratio­ nalization Experts, they thought that if, as a result of centralising schooling, which might be convenient from various points of view, children could bç taught in a school providing higher levels of education in sui­ table premises, such centralization should be carried out "even if an in­ crease of the costs that could not be regarded as small will arise".^

In 1948 a parliamentary committee - 1948 års skolkommission - published its report (SOU 1948:27). A 9-year school was suggested, 'enhetsskolan1 (the comprehensive school). In 1950 Parliament made a compromise decision implying intensive work to test the new school system. Among other things, the school committee noted th a t a population basis of 2500-3000 was needed for the 9-year school. In 1945, the so called 'kommunindelningskommitten' (Commune Merger Committee) published its report, setting out policies for the reform of the division of civil local communes (SOU 1945:38). Sur­ veying the different fields of local administration, they drew the con­ clusion that 2000-3500 inhabitants was a minimum, and that the figure in communes with a shrinking population should be s till higher. The reform was set in operation from the 1st of January, 1952. The number of rural communes decreased from 2281 to 816. The to ta l number of local communes 27 was 1037. It may be of interest to observe that while today there is a widespread concern that the diminished number of appointed repre­ sentatives may possibly have negative effects on local democracy, one of the motives of the committee in creating bigger units was the shortage of appointed representatives in the communes.^

According to the school committee i t was necessary fo r the construc­ tion of a 9-year school to bring about a c e n tra liza tio n of the schools in the countryside, and in the School Bill in the parliament of 1950, the Minister for Education declared that a general centralization of forms 7-9 was in e v ita b le . A c e n tra liza tio n of forms 1-4 should be avoi­ ded as far as possible.^)

A sub-report from the Norrland Committee (SOU 1949:3) also paid special attention to the educational problems. It was shown, e.g., that 25% of a ll farm ers'fam ilies in Norrbotten had children boarded out, and the social problems associated with the existing sparsely populated areas were fu rth e r emphasized. Not least because of these problems was a con­ centration of settlements found desirable

During the latter half of the 1940's, there was renewed vigour in the arguments fo r making society tr y to stop the emigration from rural areas. In several motions in the parliaments of 1945 and 1947, i t was stressed th at development had reached a lim it where society ought to step in and try to affect the migration by measures aiming at the location of indus­ tries and other enterprises

In 1947 The Committee fo r In d u strial Location (Utredningen fö r närings­ livets lokalisering) was set up, and it was authorized to investigate and make proposals concerning the location of industries. Their report was published in 1951 (Näringslivets lokalisering, SOU 1951:6). The sec­ retary was the present professor of regional planning at KTH, Per Holm. In the journal Plan nr 1-69 he commented on the report: "The population decrease in certain geographic areas and parts of the country should be counteracted by an active decentralization policy, which in the first place should affect industrial location, but secondly also social activi- 28 tie s ... The target could not be to preserve the population figures in sparsely populated areas and rural d is tric ts ".^

It is stressed in the report, that in Sweden, contrary to most coun­ tries on the Continent and to Britain, it was the problems of the rural areas that attracted attention. If the expanding part of the economy were concentrated in a few big c itie s , the population figures would most likely be stagnant or decrease in many parts of the country.^In the next few decades the labour occupied in ag ricu ltu re and fo restry would probably diminish gradually. The labour put out of work would be trans­ ferred to the urban trades. I f , as fa r as the location of the urban tr a ­ des is concerned, there were development trends similar to those in the last decades, the majority of the population unemployed in agriculture would, according to the report, most likely move into localities, and to a great extent to the big cities.

A concentration of urban trades to limited areas and to big centres was regarded as unavoidable in many cases fo r economic reasons. The possi­ b ilitie s , as had been suggested by the committee, for locating crafts in sparsely populated areas or in minor centres were considered to be limited. "The most adequate solution w ill therefore probably in most cases, be to try to locate the industries, or other possible types of enterprises, in the centres that already exist, and which can grow so large and are situated in such a way that their expansion might be bene­ ficial for the surrounding rural area".^

In a discussion of the general views of the need for a regional policy carried out by society, the report stated that "local areas with a sur­ plus of labour may, only under special circumstances, influence regional policies with the purpose of increasing the supply of employment. Instead, from a regional policy point of view, it would be better, in many cases, to try to facilitate the migration of labour to a place where there is a shortage of labour and which is more favourable for production from other points of view...“ 29

Nor is it possible by a changed location of industries to provide equal supplies of such facilities that require a bigger population base to be pursued. In th is case, however, regional policies can be pursued to pro­ mote an equalization by concentrating the population and settlements both locally and regionally. Furthermore, by coordinating settlement plan­ ning, agricultural planning and direct regional policies, it would be possible to support the development of the economy in small and medium­ sized localities, situated in such a way that they may be important as commercial and c u ltu ra l centres fo r the population in purely rural areas. Therefore the crucial point of the location issue would be: Which centres should in future increase and which possibly d e c rease? "^

Contrary to what happened to the contemporary expansion programme for northern Norway, the reports, mentioned above, were not followed up by any special regional action programmes. The regional policies suggested were mainly information and advice. On the other hand, point by point mea­ sures were taken, e.g., the establishing of Norrbottens järnverk -NJA- (the Norrbotten Ironworks) at Luleå and Statens Skogsindustrier -ASSI- (the National Forestry Industries) with plants in Piteå, Karlsborg and elsewere.

2.3 Comments

A cautious interpretation of the official attitudes in the 4CTs towards the problems of Norrland and the G-areas would be that the o ffic ia l out­ look appears to move towards emphasizing the importance of the local cen­ tres and regional systems. In the beginning of that period a careful con­ centration of the most peripheral settlements to more productive areas is recommended, although it is implicit that all arable land should be tilled . The question of services was confined at the start to mean schools and basic food supply. In the statement of principles of the Norrland Committee of 1944 (Norrlands kommi tténs pri nei pbetänkande) it was noted that the eco­ nomy was lagging behind compared with the developed areas in middle and southern Sweden, and the economy, based on the s o il, the forests and the ore, should be developed, but simultaneously other parts of the economy should be promoted and d iffe re n tia te d . From an in d u s tria l point of view, 30 e.g., a certain concentration of the settlements should be strived for, but the need of labour in forestry should be taken into consideration. The total agricultural production should be maintained to the same ex­ tent, and the required increase in the size of the farms should be brought about by reclaiming rather than by merging existing farms that were un­ suitably situated. It is regarded as unfavourable to concentrate the popu­ lation into major centres, and the promotion of embryos of localities is just recommended. The role of northern Norrland as being a 'breeding re­ servation' is emphasized, but, at the same time, they point out that the natural population increase should not lead to the necessity of emigration. Nor should the labour put out of work from agriculture and forestry have to go to southern Sweden to earn a living. But in Näringslivets lokali­ sering, published in 1951, it was stressed that industrial activities should be located in centres conveniently situated and of such a size that an expansion might be beneficial for the surrounding rural area. Since the committee found i t in e v ita b le th at the urban trades be concen­ trated in limited areas and major centres for economic reasons, an emi­ gration of unemployed people, previously occupied in agriculture and forestry should be facilitated rather than merely attempting an increase in local job opportunities. In this context the report also mentioned something that is today a currently central planning problem: the authori­ ties have to decide which centres shall in future increase or decrease their populations.

The school question was to play a role of growing importance in the de­ bate on the location of the settlem ents. The cost savings, which were referred to at the beginning of the decade as a reason fo r a modest cen­ tr a liz a tio n , were replaced in the argument by q u a lita tiv e reasons and the thought of a comprehensive school reform was also to have an e ffe c t in the same direction.

2.4 The Period 1950-1965

From the end of the 194CTs, the labour market a u th o rities have gradually become the dominant factor in the field of regional policy. In the 1920's the governmental labour market policy had consisted of insignificant adapta- 31 tive devices, chiefly labour exchanges, and a very restricted unemploy­ ment policy was carried out. The r e lie f work and the unemployment bene­ fits could on the whole be regarded as part of social welfare policy. In 1934, a B ill for unemployment insurance and an expansion of the labour exchange was approved. This expansion, implying among other things a certain amount of vocational guidance and re-training, was accelerated during the second world war. When the s itu a tio n was back to normal a fte r the war, the Labour Market Commission, as i t was then, was replaced by a permanent organisation, Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen (Labour Market Board, AMS), and, a t the same tim e, the labour exchanges were nationalized once and for all. Immediately after the second world war, the chief goal of economic policy was fu ll employment, and towards the end of the 1940's, the labour market policy was looked upon in a widened context. Labour market p olicies were used to cope with problems in a period of economic boom, and these p olicies were much more integrated with economic policy than they were p r e v io u s ly .^

In 1952 the commune merger reform, mentioned above (storkommunre- formen) was carried out. The reason was partly, that there has been a substantial decrease in the population in many communes, and, partly that there were new and expanded tasks to be undertaken by the communes. The introduction of the comprehensive schools was one of them. The number of communes was cut down considerably, and after the reform practically no commune had a population under 1000 people, a normal fig u re being 2000-3000 inhabitants. But it was not a question of adapting the new mer­ ged communes to any form of functional regions, and, as w ill be shown be­ low, a new commune reform was required.

As a consequence of The Committee fo r the Location of In d u stries, the Location Bureau of AMS was established, and in 1955 th is bureau was given the task of implementing a report, requested by Parliament, to design a basis fo r the modelling of the future economic and population structure in the country, in the first place within the Home Office's field of ac­ tio n . 20h n 1958 the f i r s t parts of the reports were published, Befolkning och Näringsliv (Population and Economy). The committee estimated that mi­ gration would continue, although they did not exclude the possibility of 32 people remaining in sparsely populated areas to a greater extent than had been possible previously, commuting to work in the centres.

It was pointed out in the report that localities and sparsely populated areas should not be looked upon separately, but together, and that it is essential to observe the development in areas consisting of both 21 ) centres and sparsely populated areas. 'Therefore, to make this possible, the country was divided up p ro vision ally into regions, each of which con­ sisted of one major or medium-sized centre, as a regional centre, and the surrounding areas. 101 such so called A-regions were delimited, among other things by means of Dahl's research on the extent of the commercial hinterlands. In principle, an A-region should have at least 30 000 inhabi­ tan ts. A number of studies on the demographic and labour market develop­ ment within each of these regions are described in the report.

In 1960 the final part of the report, Samhällsservice och lokaliserings- verksamhet (Community service and location measures) was published. In this part of the report AMS considered that the possibilities of control­ ling the regional development were small: "Taking into account that the possibility of influencing the location of industries are limited, the goals must be extensively related to the dominant development trends."22^

The division into regions was pursued in Samhällsservice och lokaliserings- verksamhet by dividing the A-regions into B- and C-regions. The minimum size of a B-region was 15 000 in h ab itan ts, whereas the C-regions had a minimum of approx. 7500 inhabitants. It was pointed out in the report that "localities having a population basis of 30-35 000 inhabitants, including the surrounding hinterland, could be considered as being able to provide good service, With a population basis of 7-8000 inhabitants it is possible to provide a relatively differentiated service. In spite of the deficien­ cies in the service supply of the latter centres, they would most 1ikey be accepted as places to settle down in and to locate a plant in".2^But it is also established as a fact, that a great number of small places lack the prerequisites to attract industries, and that a decrease in the popu­ lation must be accepted in these villages. Some of them have lost their importance as service centres, either totally or as regards some amenities 33 that have been forced to be concentrated in better situated centres. The report states that the demands for service have increased substantially and will probably continue to do so in the future.

In the 1950"s9 the labour market policy was gradually reorientated from an unemployment policy to an adaption policy, i.e ., re-training, migration support, vocational guidance and other schemes, with the labour exchange as the prerequisite. Parallel to the above-mentioned AMS-research, i.e. in the recession period of 1957-58, AMS also started an extensive labour market policy programme, in which, above a l l , two concepts were stressed: mobility of labour and selectivity in the measures taken to stimulate em­ ployment.

In 1956, Balanserad expansion (SOU 1956:53) (Balanced Expansion) was pub­ lished, i.e ., the report of the Långtidsutredningen (The Long Term Investi­ gation Committee) of 1955.

The report stated that the rapid pace of urbanization had been one of the dominant features of the development in the last decades, and no slowing down was expected during the next decade. Thus the number of people em­ ployed in urban trades was expected to rise by 300 000 w ithin th is period, i.e . by approx. 15%, even i f the to ta l urban population would not ris e to that extent. In this context they warned of overheating in the city regions and hint at the advisibility of decentralizing central bodies, which was also followed up in a special public report. The Långtidsutredningen also found it important to utilize the regional labour surplus and recommended the promotion, in various ways, of the mobility of labour. Thus construc­ tion should not be located in places with a labour surplus, following the law of the least effort, but, instead, the labour should move to places where there was a need fo r construction. I t was also emphasized th at such an increase in house-construction that might lead to a certain over-produc­ tion would, most likely, promote the mobility of labour. At the same time it was pointed out, that it was sometimes preferable to have a policy that had an influence on the regional development of the economy. But, as far as agriculture was concerned, a continuous internal and external rationali­ zation ought to be achieved. Such rationalization would make transferring 34 the agricultural population to other trades possible, and thereby, in the long run, facilitate a reduction of uneconomic production.

The idea behind making changes in the physical structure is closely re­ lated to d e c e n tralizatio n . One example of th is is th a t the possible re­ moval of civil service departments and other institutions that was later dealt with by a special committee. This committee was constituted in 1957, and its report Lokalisering av statlig verksamhet (SOU 1963:69) stated that it was possible to remove approx. 120 institutions, including approx. 30 000 employees. The reasons fo r a removal of c iv il service departments from Stockholm, given in the terms of reference to the committee were that it seemed to be desirable to avoid a too rapid growth of Greater Stock­ holm, on the one hand, and to contribute to the economic structure in d iff e ­ rent parts of the country, on the other hand, by an active governmental lo­ cation p o licy. The proposals where not followed up, however, u n til the ques­ tion was brought up again at the end of the 196CTs.^

At the end of the 195CTs, AMS was also actively working on location re­ ports for different counties. Such a report is Tornedalsutredningen. In this report it was pointed out that the area of Tornedalen is extremely little industrialized, and that more than 50 % of the population are s till occupied in agriculture and forestry, whereas the national figure is approx. 20%. At the same time high birth rates in this area caused a much bigger in­ crease of the productive part of the population than had been the case in other parts of the country. The situation in Tornedalen was therefore charac­ terized by high unemployment, esp ecially since fo re s try had been recently highly mechanized.

Migration during the next 10-year period was expected, but it was stressed that this migration must be controlled in such a way that the age propor­ tions would not become too unbalanced. On the basis of studies carried out by professor Sven Godlund and Gunnar Rasmusson, an approximate picture of the urbanization structure was given. The prospects were linked with the growth of the centres. "The growth of the centres normally means, in addi­ tion to an increase in the number of in h ab itan ts, an improvement in the supply of services beneficial also to the surrounding rural areas. In the 35

attempt to preserve - or create - a lively country-side, the strengthen- 26 Ì ing of the service centres is an important lin k " . ‘'They were also in favour of a revision of the division of communes in Tornedalen. Both the introduction o f the comprehensive school and the construction of a well differentiated local vocational education were considered to re­ quire a bigger population basis than these communes had.

AMS also in itia te d a committee to deal with the problems of fo re s try , Skogsbrukets arbetsmarknad, (The Labour Market in Forestry, SOU 1956:36. The thinning of the population in forestry areas was considered to have caused a concentration of both the settlements and the school. But the concentration of schools had been much faster than that of the settle­ ments, and it would, most likely continue to be so. After the centrali­ zation of the higher forms, the number of children in the lower forms in many v illa g e s would not be s u ffic ie n t to ju s tify an elementary school (bygdeskola). Therefore, a necessary partial centralization enforced a total centralization, according to the report. The committee fully agreed with the view of the Norrland Committee, that a continuous concentration of the population was desirable. But they warned of the consequences of a too strong concentration - there should not be too long and inconvenient distances to important timber cutting areas. Types of school, which in p rin c ip le were to vanish from the school system, - B3 - were recommended fo r extremely sparsely populated areas, since the consequences fo r the people living in these areas would otherwise be very serious.^

In 1960, the Swedish Confederation of Trade Unions (L0) established a team, given the task of examining questions concerning the structural problems of industry. The report of the group - Samordnad näringspolitik - (Co-ordi­ nated Economic Policy) was published in 1961. In this report it was stated that regional policies cannot be separated from labour market policies: in both fie ld s the task was to give selective support to expansion. "Conse­ quently, we disapprove of such location policies, that work for an a rti­ ficial spreading of a differentiated economy, that counter-act the natural migration of labour from areas lacking the possibilities of development, and for arbitrary reasons, that obstruct the migration into city regions". The main task fo r Swedish location policy was considered to be the promotion 36 of a concentration of industries in the expanding parts of the country, and they opposed the ambitions of the authorities to obstruct the estab­ lishment and expansion of industries in the biggest urban centres in Sweden, i. e . the Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö regions. I t was con­ sidered unsuitable for an enterprise to take socio-economic calculations into consideration, and they maintained, that enterprises run by the state, the communes as well as by private owners should take account of no other aspects than business-oriented ones. The development and the planning of the institutions and enterprises owned by the community also have a strong influence on private enterprises, and they emphasize the importance of di­ recting public enterprises according to a centralistical pattern. "There­ fore it is of great importance, that the community itself, when locating its own establishments, follows the principles that promote an optimally rational structure in the economy as a whole".

As regards the impact that the so called Wage Solidarity Policy has on the region policy process, the committee thought that, "in its widest impact i t might have a conserving influence on the employment strucutre". This policy meant a deliberate abstention from using wage differentials as an incitement for mobility. Then, it is argued, one ignores the fact that the constant wage pressure that the wage solidarity policy was expected to put on weak in d u stries, must enforce ra tio n a liz a tio n , and in those cases where such possibilities are exhausted, to the closure of firms. This was conside­ red to be a more efficient way of bringing about the migration of labour than to tr y to do so by wage d iffe r e n tia ls . Of course, one p rerequisite would be that there should be a high rate of employment, and that an active labour market policy were operating.

To sum up, it could be said that the labour market policies and the regional policies have to accept the need for adaption and migration, and that these policies must work in step with the development towards more concentrated industrial units and a pattern of more concentrated settlements. Trade, tax and credit policies can be conveniently used as tools to bring about greater 29) compulsion and increased incentives fo r m obility w ithin the economy. 37

As has been mentioned above, (p 31 ) , the commune merger reform, passed in 1952, was soon found to be insufficient, and seven years later, in 1959, the so called "indelningssakkunniga" (merger experts) were appointed. They were given the task of examining whether a revision of the existing division of communes could be regarded as necessary. The report of this committee, Principer för en ny kommunindelning, (Principles for a new di­ vision into communes) SOD 1961:9, was published two years la te r. The com­ mittee had been assisted by geographic experts, among others Torsten Häger­ strand and Sven Godlund. Two population prognoses, Godlund's and Guldbrand- sen's, formed a basis for the evaluations of the committee. The communes had been given new responsibilities during the past period. Among other things, the Parliament of 1957 had been in favour of a general transition to a compulsory 9-year comprehensive school, sta rtin g from the school year of 1962-63. The committee stated, that it took a population of 7500-8500 in­ habitants to justify the organisation of the education for all subjects and streams in the 9th form.

Social welfare and the care of the aged were two other sectors requiring increased resources. The committee stated, that the size of a home for the aged of approx. 40-50 places would offer the optimal possibility of giving adequate care at a reasonable cost. A population basis of 5000-6000 people was needed for a home for aged people of that size, according to the com­ mittee, and the same minimum figure was considered valid for social welfare. The care of alcoholics was estimated to require larger resources, as well as health care. Further more, Socialstyrelsen (The National Board of Social Wel­ fare and Medical Care) had stated that the different tasks of the social sec­ tor justified a commune size of at least 10 000 inhabitants. Thus, public general practitioner districts generally had 4000-7000 inhabitants, and an expansion of the organization of medical care should be implemented c h ie fly by an increase in the number of doctors per district, and not by an increase in the number of districts. A two-doctor practice was considered to need a basis of 7500-8000 inhabitants. From a housing policy point of view it was also desirable that a commune included both a centre and its hinterland, since in th at case there would be greater p o s s ib ilitie s fo r making an objec­ tive balance in the housing construction in the centre and the hinterland. 38

As regards the location of industries, the committee referred to the division by AMS into A-, B- and C-regions. It was considered d ifficu lt to locate industries and enterprises of any considerable importance in places smaller than the C-centres, i.e. centres in regions with at least 7500 inhabitants. As regards the police fo rc e , the committee argued that a police district should have a strength that was justified in a few com­ munes o n ly .3<^

According to the committee, the above-mentioned community responsibili­ tie s a ll indicated fu rth e r commune mergers, even though they were, natu­ rally, aware of the disadvantages that might arise. The number of civil servants might increase, and that was regarded as a positive feature, since the utilization of civil servants would give the appointed repre­ sentatives more time to devote themselves to matters of principle.

I t was considered important fo r the commune to be b u ilt up around a cen­ tral place, which could function as an autonomous centre for services; thus the new communes should be constructed on principles of the central place theory. To an increasing extent, community service activities should be located in the main place to which the population of a certain area travel of their own accord. The target for the minimum size of a commune in 1975 was set a t . 8000 inhabitants. Such a system of merged communes was considered to have a stable population development, and, on an average, a relatively major part of the population lived in, or close to, the centre of the merged commune. The boundaries of the new communes were recommended to be drawn according to Godlund's method to define the hinterland but nor- 31 ) mally adjusted to the existing boundaries of the communes. 'Thus, the com­ mune reform implied decentralization on a national level inasmuch as the field of action of the communes was extended. On the other hand, on a local le v e l, i t meant c e n tra liz a tio n , because the communal functions were concen­ trated to the centres of the new communes.

Delegationen för översiktlig vägplanering (The Delegation for General Road Planning) noted in their report, Vägplan för Sverige, SOU 1958:1, a struc­ tural change in the central place system within the regions. Several centres 39 had been set aside by bigger and more vital centres, and they had also partly lost their central function. It was considered that this develop­ ment would continue. Planning ought to aim at creating a system of re la ­ tively differentiated and vigorous centres, situated at a reasonable distance from each other, and located in such a way that the population living in the country-side and in small villages could share these cen­ tral services without too great travelling distances.

The consequence, as fa r as road planning was concerned, was, th at i t was considered as natural that the so called 'parlbandsprincipen1 (the neck­ lace principle) would be used when forming the national road net, i.e. to strengthen, to the greatest possible extent, the links between the impor­ tant nodes, 'pearls1 .^ F o r the investment period of 1962-67, 50% of the to ta l costs of the roads in the countryside were recommended to be spent on the new national road network, thereby improving the more frequently used roads which are p a rtic u la rly important fo r the economy. This applied to both the national and the country road n e tw o rk s .^

In the Parliament of 1959, motions were tabled that led to the setting up of a committee called Kommittén fö r n äringslivets lo k aliserin g (The Committee fo r the Location of In d u s trie s ). The chairman of the committee was the Provincial Governor of the country of Norrbotten, Manfred Näslund. The report of the committee, Aktiv lokaliseringspolitik, SOU 1963:58, was published in 1963.

The view of the committee was that development had led to a situation that was, in some parts of the country, disturbing and required immediate, vigo­ rous political measures. There had been a lack of an overall regional policy target, and the aims of the location policies recommended by the committee were drawn up in the following way:

1) to promote such a location of industry th at the country's access to the factors of production would be utilized and distributed in different ways in such a manner that national income would be as large as possible and the labour force fu lly employed. 40

2) to create a harmonious social environment which can, as fa r as pos­ sible give people - no matter where they have to live to fu lfil their tasks - equal standards as regards social and cultural service.

3) to locate industry in such a way that the defence of the country will be facilitated.35^

The committee stated, th at they wesie mon.e and mosie convinced that the G- pA.oblemô LOQjie pAobtemò o£ locaJUXieA.

Thus they said, e.g., that "the conditions for maintaining a reasonable standard of services for the population in G-areas depends on the continuing development of urbanization. The crucial point is thus not, whether small, urban agglomerations, in s ig n ific a n t from a service point of view, can keep their populations, but that there will be a sufficiently fine-meshed net of centres with service facilities of different kinds and extents".35)

They warned th at the continuing reduction in employment w ithin ag ricu ltu re and forestry might lead to a situation where the comparatively favourable development of the service trades in regions with weakly developed industry might be interrupted.

The supply of services in the centres of large and sparsely populated, rural areas are highly dependent on the basis in the hinterland, and a decline in the population in these areas could cause a decline in important aspects of the service. Therefore, the location policy for these areas should aim at stimulating employment in industry and service trades, and at directing the employment geographically, in such a way that vigorous centres with a diffe­ ren tiated industry would be developed. Economic support ought to be provided, in such a way that the expansion of certain service centres would be stimu­ lated, but with the aim of creating by these means an econorny with its own vigour. The committee considered the decrease in employment in agriculture and forestry as an expression of an increase in efficiency which was desi­ rable in it s e lf and because i t maintained the competitive strength of the timber industry. Industrialization of the sparsely populated areas was not 41

regarded as p lau sib le, not least because firms made such demands fo r accessible services, that only the urban centres could in general inte­ rest them at possible locations.^

The committee made a number of proposals for a more active regional policy. In 1964, Parliament decided on the goals of regional policy, and in April, 1965, issued a Royal Proclamation on governmental regional a id , which came into operation on July 1st the same year. The main points of the regional p olicies from 1965 onwards w ill be described below. (Chapter 5).

2.5 Comments

As has been pointed out above, in the course of the 1940“s the official view of the G-problems in Norrland gradually changed towards thinking in terms of central places and regions. During the subsequent period, this trend is s till more obvious.

In the 195CTs, the labour market authorities commenced a more active labour market policy. It was no longer a matter of preserving agriculture in Norrland in order to strengthen the national agricultural production. The maintenance of certain parts of the agriculture was more an argument for avoiding unnecessary hardship for forestry. The thing that was to pre­ serve purchasing power and the stability of the new local communes was to be the growth of central places, and the minimum population required for public and other services suggested, that in practice it would be the cen­ tres of the communes th at would work as poles. The new communes were designed according to central-place-theoretical principles, the road net was planned mainly to lin k to major nodes together, and the employment goal of LO was set in such a way that the 'natural' exodus from the G-areas and the small localities would not be counteracted. Not until the beginning of the 1960's were the localizing principles in "Näringslivets lokalisering' (SOU 1951:6) taken up again, and a programme for regional policy was presented in 1965.

In chapter 1, section 3, it was mentioned that the economic considerations on a national level seem to have had a centralizing influence, whereas the planning of the physical structure has had the opposite effect. By and large, 42 the survey of the public reports has confirmed this dualism. The idea of a functional, decentralized, physical structure has been counteracted by the s triv e fo r economic growth th at has been the central theme in national economic planning. Spontaneous and s e c to ria lly directed migration has rap id ly changed the economic and demographical conditions in many of the new communes, and, thereby, the active location policies endorsed by the Näslund committee have been obstructed.

2.6 ’Glesbygdsutredningen’ - The Investigation of the Sparsely Populated Areas

The studies that are of the greatest interest for this thesis are the above-mentioned sub-reports of the Glesbygdsutredningen and its final re­ port, "Glesbygder och glesbygdspolitik" (1972:56). In many ways the report deals with matters of direct interest to this thesis. Therefore, in my view, it would be of value for the reader to have, at this stage, information on what has become the official view of the G-problems, and a brief account of the main points of the sub-reports will therefore be given below.

The G-problems are problems of a c c e s s ib ility , i. e . d iffic u lt ie s fo r the population to have access to important public and commercial services. Ac­ cording to 'Glesbygdsutredningen', this makes it especially urgent to main­ tain public transport facilities in the G-areas. In many G-areas the G-pro- blems are on the whole ordinary communication problems, and people's d i f f i ­ c u ltie s in gaining access to d iffe re n t forms of service can c h ie fly be re­ duced by improved transport f a c ilit ie s . Also in such extremely sparsely in ­ habited areas in which measures have to be taken to maintain the fixed ser­ vice, there are transportation needs that have to be met by collective means of communication, also including taxi-cabs.

In their general consideration of the need for service establishments of different kinds in G-areas, the starting-point for the committee has been that the basic needs for servi ces,which are of particular interest to people in G-areas, can be grouped schematically by how easily they can normally be 381 met so that the standards of service can be considered satisfactory. ' The 43

committee considered that all the important relevant service functions could be grouped into two need le v e ls , namely 1) a local le v e l, re fe r­ ring to the most basic and frequent needs, which ought to be met w ithin a distance regarded as reasonable for daily travel. 2) a regional level corresponding to a more qualified service supply, where a lower degree of a c c e s s ib ility ought to be acceptable. The committee also discussed which service functions could be considered to be of special importance and un­ der which level they should be c la s s ifie d .

The committee thought that the service supply of the sparsely populated areas could be considered as satisfactorily provided, if the local and regional battery of services, containing all the important service func­ tions, was also, to some extent, spread into the sparsely populated areas. As regards the most basic local service functions, one might accept a tra v e llin g time of 30-40 minutes one way, i. e . what is normally regarded as an acceptable maximum distance for the daily journey to work. As re­ gards the more q u a lifie d regional services mentioned, the committee f e l t , that, as far as accessibility was concerned, the standard of services could be regarded as satisfactory, if regional service centres could be reached within a couple of hours. One condition for such a concentration of the fixed service establishments to be acceptable was that the people in the area had access to local and regional public means of transp o rtatio n, making it possible to reach local and regional service centres.

Furthermore, the committee held the view th at a ll households ought to have access to public transport. Taxi-cabs that could be ordered in advance, where also included. A reasonable frequency of transport service meant con­ nections at least twice a week to commune centres or local service centres. According to the committee, the battery of services, mentioned above, in­ cluded grocery shop, hardware shop, chemist's shop, decorating supplies, men's and women's o u t f it t e r s ', pharmacy, ordering stations fo r wines and spirits, petrol station, motor garages and other domestic repair services such as plumbing, electrical installations and the maintenance of domestic appliances, such as radio and TV, men's and women's hairdressers, cafés and banks. 44

By and large this lis t covers what elsewhere within the G-reseach has been considered as an adequate battery of services.

It is thus primarily through transport measures that Glesbygdsutredningen considered that the situation of peripherally situated households, lacking access to means of transportation of their own could be relieved. The idea of direct subsidies to neighbourhood services was rejected, and instead different kinds of investment support were recommended. Support ought to be given to finance the new construction, the rebuilding and the enlarging of shop premises and other buildings needed by firm s , or to get in ternal fittings and equipment.

In previous discussion memoranda, the view was that the planning for the G-areas should aim a t three service le vels: neighbourhood services, commune centre services (local), and regional services. In their final report they considered it as unrealistic to discuss neighbourhood services (grocery shops, primary schools, petrol stations) as a general planning target for G-areas. Neighbourhood services in these areas could only e x is t in the form of mobile service units, according to the committee. In their final report, a travelling time up to 30-45 minutes, one way, was regarded as tolerable fo r the most frequent service n e e d s .^ However, they regarded the access to fixed services as important for the population in G-areas, but they con­ sidered as reasonable that special community support should be directed to basic service functions in commune centres. Measures to maintain service functions in a fixed form outside the main commune centres ought to be taken only in such areas of depopulation, in which an acceptable service standard would not be achieved by normal transport subsidies. Thus, a primary goal for the policy for the G-areas should be to contribute to the maintenance of public transport facilities, which make it possible for those who are dependent on these facilities to get to major service centres at low cost and frequently enough, as well as to get goods and services brought to their homes. According to the committee there is no reason to believe that the popu­ la tio n in G-areas in general would b enefit from public measures taken to pre­ serve a service structure which was established under other economic con­ ditions, and with lower demand for the extent and types of service. The im- 45 portance of fixed nuclei for services was however, emphasized, and a system of various forms of agencies, complementary to the mobile ser­ vices, was outlined.

The following chapter is also of a background character. A substantial part of the reference literature used for this thesis originates from the behavioural sciences. With regard to what has already been said about planning which is more and more centred on the individual, I have considered it to be urgent to give a survey of the works that the ap­ proaches and the methods used in chapter 4-6 are based upon. 46

Notes to chapter 2

1 Claesson (1972) pp 7-10 and p 31. 2 Meijer (1956) pp 83-86. 3 Sandlund (1971) in ftydberg(ed): Vårt behov av re g io n a lp o litik . 4 SOU 1943:39, p 13 and pp 191-194. The quotations are more or less directly translated from Swedish. In the following there will only be a note (translated quotation) in such a case. 5 SOU 1949:1, p 16. Translated quotation. 6 Ibid., pp 31-44. Translated quotation. 7 pp 231-249. 8 SOU 1940:36, p 18 and 24. 9 See also SOU 1956:36, p 158 et seq. 10 SOU 1961:9, p 13. 11 See also Marklund (1970) p 38f and Richardson (1968). 12 SOU 1949:3, p 155 et seq. 13 Näslund-Persson (1972) p 34. 14 Holm, Per (1969) p 29. 15 SOU 1951:6, p 9. 16 Ibid, p 92. 17 Ibid, p 167 et seq. Translated quotation. 18 See also ftydberg (1971) p 19. 19 Uhman (1968) in SOU 1968:62. 20 See also Rydberg (1971) p 19. 21 Kungl. Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen (1958) Befolkning och Näringsliv, p 5. 22 Kungl. Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen (1960) Samhällsservice och lokaliserings- verksamhet, p 5. 23 Ibid, p 63. Translated quotation. 24 SOU 1956:53, pp 32, 36, 104 and 117. 25 See also Rydberg (1971) p 20 et seq. 26 SOU 1960:37, p 146. Translated quotation. 27 SOU 1956:36, p 182 et seq. 28 Landsorganisationen (1961) p 65f. Translated quotation. 29 Ibid, pp 155, 161, 185 and 206 et seq. Translated quotation. 30 SOU 1961:9, p 84-116. 31 Ibid, pp 137, 176 and 237. 47

32) SOU 1958:1, p 38. 33) See also Kungl. Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen (1960) p 164. 34) SOU 1958:1, pp 121 and 224. 35) See also Naslund-Persson (1972) p 39. 36) SOU 1963:58, p 119. 37) Ib id , pp 120, 215 e t seq. and 341. 38) "Need" will later be used in a more limited sense, (chapter 6, p 154 et seq.). 39) It may be of interest to note that a travelling time of 45 minutes to work and to a regional service centre has been set as a standard in the proposal for a regional plan for the Stockholm area. Kommunal­ förbundet fö r Stockholms stad och läns regionala frågor (1971) p 24. 48 3 The Behavioural-Science Frame of Reference

The behavioural-science research plays an important complementary role fo r the more traditionally social scientific studies, under which this thesis and other studies on the general regional planning can be categorized. A number of sociological and ethnological studies have been intensely pre­ occupied with the problems connected with depopulation. At the same tim e, during the last decade, there has been an increased interest in the ap­ proaches and methods of the behavioural-sciences among those who deal with the theory of geography. Among those works the follow ing should be mentioned: Torsten Hägerstrand's time budget studies and Peter Gould's "Mental Maps", as well as Julian Wolpert: The Decision Process in Spatial Context, Allan Pred: Behavior and Location, and R.E. Pah!: Sociological Models in Geography. Within the research on migration a behavioural-science approach has been used much e a r lie r , see e .g . Börje Hanssen's paper "The h o lis tic approach" in the collection of essays Migration in Sweden (1957).

The basis of cooperation with behavioural-scientists and also with other scientists has been broadened, when geographers, to a greater extent, grew more and more interested in different types of social planning. The cross- scientific approach that has been required for the new tasks, has been fru it­ f u l, and in many respects th is has meant mutual giving and taking.

As has been mentioned in the previous chapter, parts of the G-research pro­ je c t , the Department of Geography at the U niversity of Umeå have been car­ ried out with the direct cooperation of the Department of Sociology at the same u n iversity. Simultaneously, much m aterial has been produced w ithin both sociology and ethnology, material that naturally is bound to be the starting- point for a study of G-problems, both for the analyses and the discussion of planning.

In this chapter, I shall give an account in brief of the sociological, the ethnological and other studies of a behavioural-scientific character that have formed the most important references fo r th is th esis. 49

One early sociological study was made by Bengt G Rundblad: Problems of a Depopulated Rural Community (1957). Rundblad used both socio-anthropo- logical and conventional sociological methods, and he took an active part in the community in a small place in northern Sweden, 'Forestville', for nearly half a year. In 'Forestville1 the usual disadvantages of the G- areas predominated, and the population had continuously declined during the past 50 years. Rundblad analysed the grounds fo r discontent that he considered to be the background of the depopulation, and he noted three principiai points: Poor means of support, a declining sense of community in agricultural work, mainly caused by the rationalizations in this sec­ to r, and the spreading of urban culture and an urban set of values to the rural areas. He stated that the people of 'Forestville1 were insecure, both economically and psychologically , and that they isolated themselves from the rest of the community, especially from the nearby centre, where, unlike 'F o r e s tv ille ', the development had been prosperous. Rundblad was not prepared to give a solution to the problem with the insufficient know­ ledge available, and he pointed out the need for continued research.

In 1959, Göran Lindahl and Birger Lindskog published a study of small lo­ calities: De små tätorterna - omland och utnyttjande. The study was based on material from studies in western Värmland. What makes this study parti­ cularly interesting is that the travel and movements of the population have been recorded, thus, mapping the field that an individual moves within during work and leisure. The basic material consisted of diaries kept for a fort­ night by every individual; in that respect it is similar to the time budget studies which have been carried out at Lund University under the direction of Torsten Hägerstrand.

The fact that, seeing it from the point of view of the hinterland, the diffe­ rent localities seemed to function in different ways, each one having its special functions, was one of the most important observations in Lindahl's and Lindskog's study. The fact that one large centre had a diversified eco­ nomy did not necessarily mean that those who lived nearby utilized its pos­ sib ilities; when surveying a net of small and big places, one could observe that they were functionally differentiated in relation to the hinterland. I t was apparent th a t travel to work and to shopping went in d iffe re n t di ree- 50

tions and were very seldom combined. The size of the hinterland varied in a pronounced way with d iffe re n t functions. Private social l i f e was nearly always conducted w ithin a closer c irc le than the shopping or jobs.

The movements of the elderly population were thoroughly restricted. Their conduct of life had been limited to a minimum of motion, both geographi­ cally and temporarily. Another case when the picture of the motion fields formed a pronounced pattern was when the research lo c a lity was situated in the vicinity of a major locality. The majority of the movements within the locality were then directed towards this major locality for the pur­ pose of shopping, leisure activities and visits to various institutions. Only the journeys to work went mostly in other directions and were spread over a great number of places. It was obvious how the research locality was situated in the shade of the major centre. Shopping loyalty was small. The general grovery shop, with a rather poor variety of merchandise, had only a 20% share of the shopping journeys.^0n the other hand, it was the view of the authors that the local shops stood a better chanse if situated at a longer distance from a major centre.

Finally, in De små tätorterna, the functional differentiation of the lo­ calities was emphasized. The authors regarded a strong split to be natural and something that had to be accepted. The question whether a region should be mono-nuclear or bi-nuclear was considered to be irrelevant from the indi­ vidual's point of view: the field within which an individual moved had a great number of nodes, and thus it was poly-nuclear. The authors also war­ ned against over-estimating the possibilities of industry in rural areas

òtabJJiLzlviQ the situation in a G-area: "...an enterprise employing some hund­ reds of people has a remarkable ability to change the situation of the popu­ lation and habitation within wast areas".

The migration pattern of the forestry workers described in Mårten Bendz' and Birger Yttermyr's study Skogsarbetskraftens arbets- och servicefärder (1966), reminds one in many respects of the study described by Lindahl and Lindskog. A special feature of the journeys conducted by the forestry workers was that the journeys to work and to services went in separate directions. The 51

recent increase in the consumption of central services, shopping, social contacts etc., had caused more hardship and costs for the service jour­ neys. Simultaneously the compensation fo r travel expenses had been gradual­ ly improved, which had meant th a t the hardship of journeys to work had been relatively diminished. These changes had meant that the forestry workers experienced the marginal hardship in connection with journeys inwards (for service etc.) to be greater than the marginal hardship connected to jour­ neys outwards, i.e ., towards the work places. The result of this was a trend towards a pattern of more concentrated h ab itatio n .

The problems of G-areas in Skåne have been studied by a team at Skånes re g io n p la n e in s titu t: Kommunikationer och service på glesbygd (1968). The aim of the study was to gain knowledge of how aged people in such areas ex­ perienced their situation, and what fields that should be given priority when tryin g to improve th e ir conditions. The target group was people over 67 years of age. I t was established th at the lim ited communication p o s s ib ili­ ties had a strong effect on the utilization of different kinds of service. As regards medical care, a s lig h tly smaller consumption could be observed in predominantly rural areas, whereas no s ig n ific a n t differences in consumption could be observed by an increasing time distance. A contributive explanation to th is might be th at there is no d is tin c tio n made in the study between medi- 2 ) cal care performed by medical doctors and by district nurses. '

Harald Swedner's thesis Ecological Differentiation of Habits and Attitudes (1960) should also be mentioned among the references. He compared habits and attitu d es between the urban and the rural population in the Hässleholm area in southern Sweden. The hinterland was defined by means of studies of the areas within which people travelled. The study was based on an extensive questionnaire. Swedner found clearly significant differences, and he drew the conclusion that "the urban-rural variable is s till of some significance for the variation in habits and attitudes in the area studied". He expected, however, the differences to diminish as a consequence of improvements in the means of communication, e.g. an extended ownership of cars and TV-sets. 52

Swedner continued the discussion on specific rural attitudes and habits in the chapter "Social struktur på landsbygden" in Svensk samhällsstruktur i sociologisk belysning (1965). In this context, Torsten Hägerstrand's studies on innovation spreading in a Swedish rural area should be mentio­ ned, which shows, among other things, how the private information field of different individuals affects the disposition to accept innovations.^

A great number of studies have dealt with the geographical and professio­ nal mobility of labour. In 1961, Einar Neymark published his thesis, Selek­ tiv rörlighet. He tried to establish how the apparent selective trends varied depending on education, in te llig e n c e and social o rig in in connec­ tion with emigration from communes, counties and rural areas. The study was based on a sample of a male age group, and Neymark also showed the changes th at occurred, as regarded trades and professions between the age of 21 and 25, the distribution of trades and professions in this age class, and how these variables could be related to the above-mentioned background variables. The study showed clear differences in the migration structures. The migra­ tion was conducted according to the patterns typical of a particular back­ ground or neighbourhood. The higher the education, the more intensive was the migration, especially in particularly rural areas.^As regarded in te lli­ gence, Neymark also found indications of a selective migration: there was a clear overrepresentation of those with high intelligence among those mi­ grating a long distance and among those who migrated directly from a rural d is tr ic t into an urban area.

Bengt G Rundblad's thesis Arbetskraftens rörlighet (1964) dealt chiefly with professional mobility. The research area was Norrköping. Certain data about geographical m o b ility were however given; thus i t was established that the number of geographical changes of jobs decreased highly with in­ creasing age. The oldest group investigated (34-45) made 0,29 changes on an average, during a 5-year period, whereas the fig u re of the younger group (born 20 years later) was 0,79.

Rundblad was also the leader of the project Inflyttad arbetskrafts anpass­ ning i en expanderande arbetsmarknad, (sub-reports published in 1968). Here geographical mobility was stressed; the research population consisted of 53

Swedish c itizen s who had moved into the A-regi on of Gothenburg in August- October, 1966, and were employed in firms with more than 100 employees. The age distribution of the investigated migrants was strikingly skewed, with 75% under 25 and only 9% over 39 years of age. The educational level of the migrants was relatively high: 42% had an education corresponding to 'realexamen1 (0-level) or more, 16% had 'studentexamen' (A-level) or more. 39% of the migrants came from rural areas.

Among the reasons for leaving the place of origin, those that had to do with the job predominated. The older people mentioned the job more often as a reason, whereas the younger ones mentioned education and environment. Most of them were positively disposed towards the migration, but approx. 1/3 of the migrants would have preferred to move to a smaller place, and the same number would have preferred to move to a place closer to their place of origin. 41% regarded it as a 'tria l' migration. Only 10% of the migrants had any economic support from the labour market authorities. To many of them the geographical change meant a social change: 15% of those who were categorized under social group 2 before the m igration, were cate­ gorized as members of social group 3 a fte r the m igration, whereas only 7% had changed from social group 3 to 2 in connection with the migration.

2/3 of the migrants had a wage increase, while 1/4 had got lower wages af­ ter their migration. Their housing costs had risen, and the standard of housing had generally decreased. On the other hand, satisfaction with the new job was high throughout, and there were very few who were d is s a tis fie d with the social service in the place of immigration. Many of them thought th at the migration had meant an improvement in th at respect.

General satisfaction after the migration was somewhat higher among those with a high level of education than among those with a lower one. In the oldest group, 50-64 years of age, there was a greater proportion of dis­ satisfaction than in the other groups. Moreover, it was evident that those who lived in an urban area before the migration were b e tte r adapted than those who lived in a rural area. A point of special interest for this the­ sis is the fact, that the migrants from the four northernmost counties (län) 54 were worse o ff than the others as regards both housing and working con­ ditions. This applied also to the change in wages and social groups.

In 1966, the County Administrative Board in the county of Älvsborg pub­ lished an analysis of Dalsland, w ritte n by Ake E. Andersson: Glesbygd och lokaliseringspolitik. Among other things, an attitude survey in the form of interviews and ^n extensive manpower investigation (arbetskrafts (AK)-undersökning) were used as a basis fo r an analysis. Andersson in ­ vestigated the willingness to migrate, and he found that the majority pre­ ferred to move out, in case of a long period of unemployment. But the group unwilling to move was considerable. There was no significant correlation between the length of time th at a not fu lly employed individual had lived in his home commune and his willingness to migrate. Furthermore, it was evident that a very small fraction of the under-employed was willing to commute at a cost, which allowed more than 30 km of commuting with a ll costs covered. Andersson, th e re fo re , drew the conclusion that a concen­ tration of the population, although it might be incomplete, must be accep­ ted, "if the population of the county (landskapet) is to remain relatively in ta c t" .

The Royal Commission of Low Income's survey of the Level of Living (1970) is of obvious interest for this thesis, even if the material has not been available in a regionally divided form. The investigation has been direc­ ted by a so c io lo g is t, Sten Johansson. As w ill been mentioned below, the oc­ currence of unacceptable conditions guided the selection of variables, and they concentrated on those conditions which could be influenced compara­ tively quickly by political decisions. The division into components of le­ vels of living is thus connected to existing institutional frameworks. The components investigated are: health, food habits, housing, childhood con­ ditions and family relations, education, occupation and work place conditionSj economic resources, p o litic a l resources, spare time and recreation.

In connection with the county planning of 1967, the County Administrative Board in the county of Norrbotten carried out a questionnaire survey, which was published in the county plan BD-80 (1968). The questionnaire was directed 55

to students in all the last classes in all schools above the 9th form level in the county, and people attending central re-training courses 5) in the same area. /Those who were doing their m ilitary service at various m ilitary units were also questioned. One of the results worth mentioning is that the respondent made extensively higher demands on the labour mar­ ket in his future home region than could be met in his home place at the time of the research. Furthermore, the respondent tended to have rela­ tively greater demands the better equipped his home locality was. The pos­ s ib ilit ie s of getting and changing employment were highly valued. There were high demands on the basis of the criteria of attractive environmental conditions to which the respondents gave p rio r ity . Depending on the grade of completeness, the estimated threshold values were 5-25 000 inhabitants.

Glesbygdsutredningen, too, organized an interview investigation in one of the areas selected for intensive studies. The study was carried out in the commune of Sorsele in the inland of Västerbotten, and it aimed chiefly at describing the service conditions of the households (Kommersiell service i glesbygder, SOU 1972:13). In agreement with what has been established in other studies, it was apparent that a relatively small proportion of the food purchases of the households were conducted in connection with commuting to work or schools. The grade of selfsupport in the area was relatively high: over 50% of the households met their demand for potatoes, meat and fish in other ways than by buying in a shop. The service demands varied with age, but also with the existin g service le v e l. Thus households with re la tiv e ly good service possibilities tended to have greater demands for standards of service than other households.

In the Department of Geography at Umeå U niversity, a number of studies on service consumption and attitu d es to the existin g supply of services have been carried out. In most cases these studies have been more or less closely connected to the G-research project. Among those are the following: Persson- Skog-Westberg: Servicestudie i Lycksele kommun (1973), Grundberg-Lundholm- Mårtensson: Service i glesbygd, En studie i Ramsjö församling, Ljusdals kom­ mun (1971), and Wikström: En landsbygds kontakter med två närliggande tät­ orter (1971). 56

The Lycksele study showed th a t the most acute problems were those con­ cerning food supply. The closings down of shops had caused d ifficu lt problems fo r aged people. The authors recommended home d e liv e rie s and better co-ordination with the school transports as a means of improving the situation.

Also in Ramsjö there was discontent with the service situation, but it was indicated in the study that the households had adapted their demands to a low le v e l. The s itu a tio n was accepted as long as there was access to a general store and a mobile shop. The greatest improvement during the last five years was considered by everybody to be the re-organization of the mail delivery to the current rural postman system. The rationalization of fo re s try and its consequences fo r the labour market were regarded as the greatest deterioration.

Wikström"s study comprised the ele c to ra l ward of Sjöbotten between Skel­ lefteå and Bureå in Northern Västerbotten. The author stated that the people accepted a longer distance to work than to shopping, and that the co rrelatio n between the journeys to work and the place where they bought everyday goods was practically n il. The reluctance to migrate was great. The most important reasons fo r staying were the access to cheap and good housing and th a t one ' f e l t at home'.

Three intensive studies of places in a depopulation situation are of evi­ dent interest in this context: Margareta Bäck-Wiklund and Hans Lindfors: Samhälle i förändring. En intensivstudie av ett samhälle i västra Värmland (1969), Ake Daun: Upp t ill kamp i Båtskärsnäs (1969) and Stig Lindholm: A tt leva i glesbygd. Rapport från Klövsjö och Rätan (1973).

Bäck-Wiklund and Lindfors aimed at establishing the conditions which ap­ p lied in the environment th a t many people were forced to leave because of the re-structuring of the economy. The authors are ethnologists, and they argued that we know too l i t t l e about social change in Swedish society, how these effect the individual and what changes in the local life patterns they bring about. The place studied was Koppom in western Värmland, a foun­ 57 dry village, where there had been a drastic decline in the number of jobs available in industry in the 196(Ts. The most striking consequence had turned out to be the feeling of insecurity created by the shutting down of the dominant firm. In practical terms this meant, that many young people le f t the community, and many of the e ld e rly people became unem­ ployed. When a new plant was established in the village, it turned out to be those who had not previously been in the labour market who were em­ ployed. At the same tim e, the extension of the compulsory school system contributed to accelerating the migration of youth.

Ake Daun: Upp t ill kamp i Båtskärsnäs^is an ethnological study of a com­ munity threatened by the shutting down of a plant. Båtskärsnäs is a pri­ marily sawmilling community on the coast of Norrbotten, and the aim of Daun's study was to explain the unusually strong opposition that had arisen from the decision by the state-run forestry enterprise to close down the saw-mill. In the same way as Rundblad, Daun stayed in the community for a long tim e, and he wanted to involve himself as much as possible in the social l i f e of the community. Båtskärsnäs proved to be a community with a strong cultural integration. The values and the interests of the inhabi­ tants were highly homogeneous, and l i f e in the community required a high degree of conformity. It is, therefore, not surprising that Daun found that those who were le a s t integrated in the social l i f e of the community were the ones who were p ositive towards m igration.

Rapport från Klövsjö och Rätan is based on a series of informal interviews in villages in the county of Jämtland, threatened by depopulation. Lindholm summed up the advantages of living in this environment as follows: nature (clean water, fresh air, mountains and forests, hunting and fishing etc.) freedom (nobody gives orders) tranquillity, and the good opportunities of associating with other people. A common view held by the respondents was that those who had moved out had done so out of necessity and not according to th e ir own wishes. The overwhelming disadvantages were the problems of de­ population and the shortage of work. The poor supply of medical care was a- nother important factor as well as the lack of shops and the long distances to schools on various high levels. In spite of the drawbacks, the majority 58 of the respondents were relu ctan t to m igrate. Lindholm also referred to a study made on Gotland (1968), where interviews about the reasons fo r migration had given similar results. Furthermore, the study dealt with the problems of people's involvement in local community issues, and he showed that local community committees had had a significantly positive effect as a ‘compensation1 for the decreased influence in the commune caused by the merger of communes.

Hva skjer i Nordnorge? (1966) by the Norwegian Ottar Brox, and Vad sker i glesbygden, published by Norrbottens museum, also belong to this group of studies.

Brox used the situation in northern Norway as a starting-point, and he aimed at establishing what the negative effects on the traditional philosophy of development there would be in the life in the northern Nor­ wegian coastal and fishery areas. He is a populist, and he considered it to be necessary to bring about economic development in the local communi­ ties, which consequently meant that the possibilities for the individual families had to be maximized. The rationalization in fishing had been dis­ advantageous to most fishermen. The combination of small farms and coastal fis h in g with small boats gave a b e tte r net re s u lt than being employed on a big fishing-boat, which implied emigration from the small village and immigration to major centres. Brox' book was received with great interest in Sweden and stim ulated a number of polemical books, among others Macke Nilsson: Sveket mot Norrland (1969) and Gunnar Balgård: Angår det Sverige om Norrland finns? (1970).

In Vad sker i glesbygden there is an account of the result of the inter­ views in the commune of Jokkmokk in Norrbotten, made with representatives of the most typical trade categories: forestry workers, power station wor­ kers, reindeer keepers, etc. The aim was to clearify the mechanism behind the emigration from the backwoods of Norrland, and to show how the people have adapted themselves to the altered living conditions. As was the case in Daun's study on Båtskärsnäs, the background is th a t the area had been dominated by one single enterprise - in th is case the construction of power stations.^When this occupation was finished, the basis for livelihood was demolished. 59

The study that has been the primary reference for the G-research pro­ je c t is Torsten Åström: En sociologisk studie av fem glesbygdsområden (1969}.^The study was based on an extensive interview material, col­ lected in 1967 in fiv e em phatically sparsely populated areas, namely the communes of P a ja la , Stensele, Hammerdal-Ramse ie , Sveg-Hogdal and Älvdalen-Transtrand-Lima, and one major centre, Skellefteå, as an ur­ ban point of reference. The aim of the study was, p a rtly , to "describe the actual situation of the population in G-areas, and partly, to re­ cord the evaluation of these conditions made by individuals".

In the autumm of 1966, a team was established to plan the investigation, with representatives of the Home O ffice and the Departments of Geography and Sociology at Umeå University. The section dealing with service is­ sues is the part of the investigation which has been of interest to this thesis. This section has partly aimed at giving a picture of the service activity of individuals and households, and of distances and means of com­ munication to different service locations, and partly to give a picture of a battery of services that could be regarded as ‘very good' by indi­ viduals.

The various service establishments that together formed a 'very good' bat­ tery of services were according to the study by Åström, as follows: De- xl partment sto re, general sto re, grocery shop, chemist's shop ; hardware shop, e le c tric ity -ra d io -T V -s e rv ic e , motor garage, men's and women's out­ f i t t e r s , shoe shop, men's and women's hairdressers, doctor, d e n tis t, bank, postoffice, church, cinema, cafe, commune office, labour exchange, medical insurance office. To this lis t, schools of different kinds should, of course, be added. Thus the existence of th is battery of services would imply th at a place is situated sufficiently high in the hierarchy of central places to give little reason for dissatisfaction with the service supplied, and thus, the place could be classed as 'very good' from a service point of

• 9) view. '

x) Swedish 'färghandel' which does not s e ll drugs. 60

The general stores dominated shopping journeys. Approx. 50% of the respon­ dents visited general stores every other day. 3/4 of the respondents lived less than 5 km from the nearest general store. The public means of tran­ sport did not operate frequently enough fo r shopping journeys, and 60% or more used their own car for shopping. Approx. 75% of the respondents con­ sidered the battery of services listed above as corresponding to a 'very good' shopping centre.

Attitudes in favour of staying were very strong, the average of the five G-areas being approx. 85%, with a certain over-representation of old people. Given the choice between giving support to migration or improving services to relieve hardship for those who stayed in the area, over 90% of the re­ spondents declared that the support should be provided for those who stayed.

Two projects that have been carried out at Umeå University, parallel with the G-project should also be mentioned. One refers to the social structure, the living conditions and the social-political activities in the commune of Vilhelmina, and it is carried out by a research team in the Department of Sociology at Umeå. A sub-report, SamhälIsstruktur i Vilhelmina kommun (1971), is a descriptive study in detail of a typical G-commune. Further re­ ports that w ill among other things, be analysing the interaction between individual conditions and structural change, will be published in the course of 1974.

The other project is a cross-disciplinary study with the purpose of analy­ sing the reasons fo r , and the consequences of the migration to urban areas. The part dealing with the economy took the form of a cost-benefit analysis, analysing the flow of migration financially supported by the labour market authorities,^and in its sociological sectors, there is an analysis of the social processes and the changes in the levels of living associated with geographical mobility caused by conditions in the labour market. A summary w ill be found in Rune Åberg"s thesis, Changes in work conditions as a re­ s u lt of changes in economic structure (1973). 61

When summing up what has been mentioned above, the following points should be stressed: there is a great number of studies with refe­ rences to the human problems involved in the depopulation and urbani­ zation processes. A certain polarization can be perceived - authors at one extreme concentrate on showing how individuals are powerlessly mangled between the wheels of a social machine, which in the authors' opinion, are running in the wrong direction. Authors at the other ex­ treme accept the situation and collect data to indicate the human bene­ fits and the broader spectra of possibilities, which larger units make possible. 62 Notes to chapter 3

1) See also Ericsson's (1969) investigations on purchase loyality in rural areas. 2) See also discussion on consumption of medical care in chapter 6. 3) Hägerstrand (1953). 4) Fransson (1969) has shown how the proportion of an age-group th at carries on with more qualified types of education is considerably higher in remote parts of the country such as G-communes in the inner parts of Västerbotten. 5) A discussion of the most suitable age of the respondents in a similar survey is carried out in Andersson (1967). 6) See also an article of the same author in Häften för kritiska studier, nr 2-3, 1969. 7) The local economic significance of the construction of hydro-electric power plants has been studied by Bylund (1962). 8) A more extensive version is found in Äström (1972). 9) See a further discussion in chapter 5. 10) See Dahlberg (1972). 4 Definition and Classification of Problem Areas

As has been mentioned above, the lack of adequate regional statistics has made it difficult to get an overall picture of the quantitative and regional extent of the G-problems. In a number of reports in the series Glesbygdsforskningen, various methods to quantify these phenomena have been presented. All these studies refer to the six northernmost countiesJ

In this chapter various classification methods will be discussed. In ad­ dition, a regional division that has not previously been used in regional studies, w ill be introduced, namely the e le cto ral wards. Three d iffe re n t methods for the classification of G-areas will be discussed. The result of the classification is shown in maps and in tables, giving the number of inhabitants in each category, respectively.

4.1 The Basis of Reference

Taxonomical problems occur in a ll sciences. To d e lim it areas and to clas­ sify and order them have been regarded as one of the principal tasks of geographers. Today, the division into regions is, per se, not an a priori problem, but it should rather be seen as something that can be adapted in accordance with the problem to be solved. It has also been argued, that the division into regions should be regarded as a variation of the classi­ fic a tio n problem in common of a ll sciences and not as peculiar to geo­ graphy. 2 ^

The problem that will be primarily discussed is the definition of the G- areas, a functional definition devised for this context to make it possibl to locate and to quantify G-problems.

As has been mentioned above, in a formal sense 'glesbygd' (G) refers to such areas that are not localities. But the concept defined in such a way 64 is totally invalid in a problem-centred context like this. A well estab­ lished, sparsely populated area, situated within a reasonable distance from major centres providing employment and a d iffe re n tia te d supply of services would not have what is referred to as G-problems. So much the more, these problems are associated with areas where people are moving to other places and regions, and where there is a declining economy. But that implies that such depopulation, labour market and service problems also affect small and middle-sized localities, if they are centres of such declining areas. When the migration from the hinterland is strong, the population basis for different kinds of service establishments in such centres gradually becomes insufficient, although the population in the centre itself may have decreased, but, on the contrary, it may even have increased.

Thus, it is incorrect to regard a formally defined 'sparsely populated area' and 'areas with G-problems' as synonyms. It is equally incorrect to regard the 'G-problems' and 'the Norrland problems' as congruent. The G-problems occur, in p rin c ip le , anywhere where the depopulation process has started. On the other hand, the G-problems, looked upon from a quan­ titative point of view, are chiefly linked to Norrland.

In many other contexts, attempts have been made to avoid the formal con­ cept of 'glesbygd'. Early examples are Gerd Enequist's d is tin c tio n bet­ ween inhabitated land (ökumen)^and uninhabitated land (anökumen), where ? anökumen is defined as areas with a population density below 1 per km . Another example is Sten Rudberg's d e fin itio n drawn in such a way th at i t comprises every inhabited homestead with any cu ltivated land including the area that might be used for grazing and hay making.^ERlTs definition of 'fjarrbygd' (remote areas) as areas with a local population basis under 5000 people w ithin a c irc le with a radius of 30 km, is an example of an extreme in the opposite direction. ERU has also defined "Norra glesbygden" (the northern sparsely populated area) as communes where the population figure is less than 27 000 within a radius of 30 km from the centre of the merged commune.6 ^ 65

ERlTs definitions of 'Fjärrbygd' and 'Norra glesbygden' can be re­ garded as examples of d iffe re n t types of functional d e fin itio n s , in so far as they form a measure of the interaction potential within the area, and from that point of view, they could work as a starting-point for studies on G-problems. But the figures of the total population alone give too little information for my purpose. I am interested in a more complex picture of the regional and quantitative extent of the G-problems.

A contributary reason to the fa c t that 'the Norrland problems' have been confused with the 'G-problems' is surely the lack of adequate regional statistics. Communes and, to some extent, parishes, have been the tradi­ tional basis of reference for statistical compilations. One consequence of the commune merger reform has already been (though it was not yet to­ tally completed, when this thesis was written) that a great amount of statistics and other data are already recorded on a merged commune level, a fact that does not facilitate penetrating analyses. Data fixed by coordi­ nates have been desired for a long time, preferably on the basis of pro­ perty holdings, but there have been no such data available in the research period.

Thus the starting-point for the further discussion is that the region of reference must be an area defined on adim inistrative grounds, since they form the units for the statistical compilations. Moreover, t h e data th at can be compiled must f a c ilit a t e a comparison between, and a c la s s ific a tio n of, the reference regions. The regional division selected in this thesis to make a serviceable description of the G-situation in 1965, is the di­ vision into electoral wards, and it is these units that will be referred to in the following.

4.2 On Classification Principles

Harvey^makes a d is tin c tio n between two main types of c la s s ific a tio n : logical (or deductive) classification and grouping (or inductive classifi­ cation). A deductive classification implies the possibility of a logical division of qualities, illustrated as follows: 66

Figure 4:1 Deductive Classifi­ All counties cation.

Norrland counties Non Norrland counties

Coastal Non coastal Coastal Non coastal counties counties counties counties

In a deductive classification, the groupings are justified by a search for regularities that make is possible to group the objects in a way suitable for a particular purpose, and, in this respect, this is a subjective method. From a deductive classification, classes without any members might be ob­ tained. In inductive classification, the grouping method itself implies that the classes created contain factors that the classification is based upon. An example of such a procedure might look as follows:

Figure 4:2 Inductive Classification*^

All counties

Good transport Bad transport position position

mCOUNTY m COUNTY mm C O U N Tm Y ^ Tm c o ymm ^ T Y ^ m COUNTY x) The counties are arranged along a nominal scale.

It is evident that the inductive classification principle is the only p rin c ip le of in te re s t in th is context: in th is study the purpose is to group areas with similar qualities along a scale in such a way that rele­ vant comparisons can be made. 67

As is well known, there are different principles for the construction of scales. The types of scales usually referred to are: a) Nominal scale, b) ordinal scale, c) interval scale, d) ratio scale and e) multi-dimensional scales. Various classification systems will be used for the measurement of the electoral wards and the principles of the construction of scales will be discussed in connection with each classification method, respectively. Three d iffe re n t systems of c la s s ific a tio n s have been selected, two of which are based on one c rite rio n only, the th ird of which combines a number of factors estimated to have a relevance for the description of the situation in the G-areas. Whichever scale is used, the purpose of the c la s s ific a tio n system is to make comparisons between d is tr ic ts on as low a hierarchical level as possible.

4.3 On Electoral Wards

As has been mentioned above, the e lecto ral wards have been chosen as a regional basis of reference, and the reasons for this choice will be given below.

As a p rin c ip le , every 'kommun1 (commune) comprises one ward, but, under special circumstances, the 'kommun' may be divided up into several wards, and if such circumstances prevail, a division is normally made. A vast area or a large population have been regarded as 'special circumstances'. There is no formal upper lim it for the number of inhabitants in a ward, but in practise, it appears that a ward may be divided if the number of inhabi­ tants exceeds 3000.^Many e lecto ral wards, however, have only a few hundred people.^The gradual change in the organization of electoral wards has been caused by amalgamations between two or more wards.

For the p rivate in d iv id u a l, the question of ward membership has in general been decided by practical considerations, and, in most cases, an electoral ward (N .B ., i f i t is not part of a large urban area) could be regarded to correspond to the Scandinavian concept ' bygd' which f a ir ly well corresponds to the French "pays" and the German "Gau", e.g. tin y culture re g io n s .^ T h e wards are, in most cases, mononuclear: a small place is c e n tra lly situated 68 in the ward, and the surrounding, scattered habitations are connected with the nucleus via connected settlements and road networks. Also where there is a poly-nuclear structure, one place is generally dominant. To­ wards the boundaries of the ward, the alliance to a 1bygd1 is more doubt­ ful, but, in principle, the inhabitants should not have a longer distance to the polling station than those in the adjoining ward. In wards in typi­ cal G-areas, the population it often very small, as a considerable popu­ la tio n drain has occurred since the electo ral ward was formed. Such wards have sometimes been amalgamated by the County A dm inistrative Board, and the result has been electoral wards with very large areas, in which a no- d a lity can hardly be found. This is the s itu atio n in the mountainous wards along the Norwegian border: from the centre in the eastern part of the wards they comprise a ll the western mountainous area to the border. These elec­ to ra l wards have the largest areas. They are only a few out of a to ta l of 1823 wards in the research area. *

The maximum population of an electoral ward is approx. 3000, and that makes the areas of wards in densely populated areas very small. Taking these cir­ cumstances into consideration, i t is v ita l to emphasize th at the electoral wards are to ta lly unsuitable fo r any comparisons based on area.

As has been mentioned above, administrative units such as parishes or com­ munes, are not suitable as reference areas for comparative regional studies of this type. On the other hand electoral wards are generally not larger than would enable meaningful comparisons being made in the m ajority of cases Naturally, the problem with heterogenous reference areas s till remains, but i t is s u b s tan tially reduced because of the lim ited area of most of the elec­ to ral wards

At the time of the census in 1965, the ele c to ra l wards of the six northern­ most counties were distributed in the following way: 69

Table 4:1 Basic Data of the Electoral Wards.

County Number of Inhabitants/ Average size Inhabitants/ electoral electoral of electoral km wards ' ward ward

Kopparberg 224 1080 109 9 Gävleborg 191 1200 75 16 Västernorrland 252 880 77 11 Jämtland 205 590 214 2 Västerbotten 416 530 125 4 Norrbotten 275 790 301 2 x) After operationally motivated amalgamations.

As is evident, the conditions vary considerably between the counties. Västerbotten has the most heterogenous pattern, with both densely and sparsely populated wards. The differences between the counties are even more apparent when the cumulative distribution of the population figures of the wards is illu s tr a te d graphically:

Figure 4:3 Population in Electoral Wards in BD-W Counties. Cumulative Curve.

100

90

60

pop/ward 399 599 799 999 1199 1 399 1599 1799 1999 2199 3199 70

The figure 4:3 clearly shows the frequency of electoral wards with small populations. In Västerbotten, e.g., those with less than 400 people make up over 80% of the to ta l number, in Jämtland 70%, in Norrbotten nearly 65% and so on. A steep rise in any part of the curve indicates a greater number of wards of the size in question compared with adjoining sizes, e.g., in the county of Gävleborg, the in te rv a l between 2000 and 2399 people per ele c to ra l ward. A completely even d is trib u tio n of size groups would have given a diagonal line across the diagram. The curve of the county of Gävle­ borg is the one nearest to such a line, but it is s till far from being a diagonal.

On the whole, in my view, the electoral wards can be regarded as acceptable as units of reference. In most cases, the electoral wards in G-areas are good examples of adm inistrative u n its , established to correspond conveniently with manageably centred regions. Population s ta tis tic s fo r the electo ral ward are available, and since also the wards in densely populated areas can be identified with manipulable units of area, other kinds of statistics, e.g., data from the Account of Commerce, or data on other provisions, can be refer­ red to the right area. The fact that the areas can differ so very much, and that wards with a small population are often the largest ones, are the main disadvantages. It should also be pointed out that in this thesis a number of wards have been amalgamated fo r operational reasons e .g . wards in densely populated areas, since it has not been possible to distinguish between them cartographically. The division into electoral wards is evident from fig. 8:2.

4.4 The Classifications

4.4.1 GENERAL PRINCIPLES OF M EASUREM ENT

With phenomena are therefore appropriate fo r measurement i t one wishes to give an accurate picture of the geographical and quantitative extent of G- problems? The term G-problems implies a search fo r negative fa c to rs . I t should be strongly stressed that this does not mean that all the favourable living conditions that can be offered in G-areas have been ignored. On the contrary, in the concluding section on planning, (chapter 6), planning method are suggested that aim at relieving the situation for those who remain there, 71 just because, in my view, the possibility of living and working in G- areas is of great value. But, like 'Låginkomstutredningen1 (the Low Income Commission), I have considered the use of the term 'unacceptable conditions' to be the most promising way of directing the choice of variables.^

It should also be pointed out once more that the labour market sector will not be dealt with in this thesis, since it has been covered by other parallel studies.^Naturally, the primary need of the G-areas is employ­ ment, but I regard it as an equally justified demand that the supply of basic service must not differ too much from the conditions in densely popu­ lated areas.

In the following, an account is given of three different classification systems which have been applied to the electoral wards in the six northern­ most counties. Some of the results are given in direct connection with the text. Some assorted maps and tabulations will be found in Appendix.

4.4.2 CLASSIFICATION WITH REGARD TO THE PROPORTION 15) OF AGED PEOPLE.

The proportion of people of 64 years of age is the variable of the first of the three classifications. The reason is, of course that the 'seni 1i- zation' in rural areas has been a problem for a long time. During 1950-60, fo r example, the proportion of employees in ag ric u ltu re and fo re s try in the age group 50+ increased from 34 to 44%J6 ^and, as w ill be shown below, the trend to a more skewed age structure is strong in practically all com­ munes with little urbanization in the northernmost counties. The high pro­ portion of aged people in G-areas means an acute planning problem, above all for health services and social welfare authorities, and is of course also a heavy burden fo r the communal econony. In 1967, e .g ., an estimate was made (published in the journal Sociala Meddelanden), that certain parts of the interior of Norrland would have, as soon as the beginning of the 1970's, a third of its population in the age group over 6 5 ^ Table 4i2 be­ low shows the proportion of aged people in the census of 1965. 72

Table 4:2 The Proportion of Aged People, Nationally and in the Northernmost Counties.

In 1965 th is age group comprised the follow ing proportion of the total population in each county:

Norrbotten (BD) 9,05% Västerbotten (AC) 11,07% Jämtland (Z) 15,10% Västernorrland (Y) 13,45% Gävleborg (X) 13,94% Kopparberg (W) 13,87%

The total research area 12,62% Sweden 12,89%

The figures in this distribution can be arranged in three natural groups: the firs t being Norrbotten and Västerbotten, where the proportion of aged people is much lower than the national average and the research area, the second comprising the two southern coastal counties and Kopparberg, and the th ir d , Jämtland alone, where the aged make up a substantial part of the population.

In principle, the proportion of the aged could range from 0 to 100%, and this makes it possible to arrange the figures in a ratio scale, i.e. the values may be accumulated - thus, 20% of aged people is twice as much as 10% of aged people.

The proportion of the aged in the electoral wards has been classified in a 4-point scale, where the median and quarti le values constitute the boun­ daries. The median values for the proportion of aged people, calculated over all counties, is 14,5, and the upper and lower quartile values are 17,9 and 11,1, respectively, Counties, taken separately, have values that vary considerably from these values; thus, e.g. Jämtland has a median value of 17,3% and Norrbotten 11,1%. 73

Table 4:3 The Proportion of Aged People in The Research Area. Q u artile and Median Values.

County Md *3

Norrbotten 8,0 11,1 14,0 Västerbotten 10,3 12,9 15,9 Västernorrland 12,2 15,7 19,3 Jämtland 14,6 17,3 20,2 Gävleborg 13,0 15,9 19,2 Kopparberg 12,9 15,9 19,2

The to ta l research area 11,1 14,5 17,9

This does not give a significantly different picture compared with the previous table. The counties of Norrbotten and Västerbotten have the lowest median values and Jämtland the highest. It is evident that the varying size and number of the wards within the counties have only a very small influence on the overall picture of the distribution of people in the oldest age group. A thorough analysis of how the proportion of aged people is distributed in the electoral wards and in the counties, throughout the entire research area is shown in previously published maps (Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 5).

There are considerable differences between the counties. Table 4:4 below shows how the proportion of the aged in the population is distributed with­ in each county in relation to the total distribution of population in wards in these counties. 74

Figure 4:4 Diagram of the D is tri- county Compared with bution of Those Aged 65+. Total Research Area Distribution over Counties Compared with the D is tri­ bution over the lota I Research Areai ~~

Surplus D eficit

wards wards Norrbotten Västerbotten

% 65+

wards wards

20-

15-

- t -e s -e 65+

wards wards

•/. 20'

15-

10

5

0 — IM M 5» M K> » -S -s -ü i -e -2 % 65+ I ill J> NI NJ N| (jj Source: Erson- Weissglas (1969) in Glesbygds forskningen, nr 5. 75

Figure 4:4 shows thus positive and negative residuals by comparison with the values for the whole area* In the county of Norrbotten, for instance, there are a great many wards with only 6-10% aged people, and the county has also considerably fewer (compared to the average of the research area) such wards having a high proportion of aged people. The diagram fo r Jämt­ land shows a contrasting picture. In this area there are a great number of wards with a high proportion of aged people, and there are only few wards with a low proportion.

In the following there will be regional comments to the maps below of the county of V ästerbotten.^ T h e two lowest classes have been amalgamated in order to increase the surveyabi1ity , and the map thus shows where, in 1965, there were wards with a proportion of aged people above the median and the upper quartile values, respectively, for the six northernmost counties.

Figure 4:5 The Proportion of the Population in the Ages 65+ in the County of Västerbotten, 1965.

TÄRNABY •SORSELE BYSKE JÖRN

«SKELLEFTEÅ •NORSJÖ burea

STENSELE

BURTRÄSK LÖVÅNGER • LYCKSELE ( ÄNÄSET ROBERTSFORS VINDELN VILHELMINA ÖRTRÄSK SÄVAR 1 '\ \ - J - ’ UMEÅ J HOLMÖ] % 65+ •ÅSELE J FREDRIKA - R DOROTEA -- HOLMS UND U : U.s

14,5 - t 7,9 HÖRNEFORS i«,o

O 10 20 30 .0 ip fcm 76

I t Is evident from the map th at in inland communes and along the Norwegian border, with one exception, Åsele, the largest proportion of aged people is on the periphery. This is the case also in some of the 'coastal com­ munes': Vindeln, Nordmaling and the former Burträsk communes. In the coas­ ta l communes, however the picture is more complex: the merged communes of Robertsfors and the former communes of Nysätra, Lövånger and Bjurholm have their centres in wards with an over-representation of the older age groups. Part of an explanation of this could be, that the emigration there has been a more prolonged process and has had a calmer course, and the aged have con­ tinued to move into the central places.

Another study, carried out by the Department of Geography in Umeå,^also points out an overall trend of a larger decrease in the total population in areas situated more than 20 km from the centre of the commune during 1960-69. When these areas have been arranged according to density, it is evident that the relative population decrease is the largest in the most sparsely popu­ lated areas. Similarly, there is a gradual shift towards an older population structure, the more scattered the pattern of residence.

In this context it might also be of interest to observe the distribution of the youngest age group, 0-19 years old. In 1960, the proportion of those aged 0-19 was 29,9% in the whole country. In 1970, th is proportion had de­ creased by 2,5% to 27,4%. In Västerbotten the corresponding proportions were 33,8% and 28,9%, res p e c tiv e ly , i. e . a decrease of 4,9%. Thus, the change has been considerably greater there than in the country as a whole.

The following map (4:6) shows the proportion of those aged 0-19 in Väster­ botten. Here, as well as on the map of the distribution of the aged, median and quarti le values have constituted the boundaries. 77

Figure 4:6 The Proportion of the Population Aged 0-19 in the County of Västerbotten 1965. “

' TARNABY I f SORSELE .

\ MALÅ ; ’ JORNv

\ SKELLEFTEÅ \ NORSJO ! Sbureå ISTENSELE j

burträsk S vänger ÅNÄSET LYCKSELE ' ! ROBERTSFORS I VINDELNJ . VILHEIKINA : 1 \ I ORTRASK^ ! SÄVAR VÄNNÄS i I UMEÅ HOLMÖN _ W Fy V FREDRIKA BJURHÎlm % 0-19 i HOIKSUND

29,6 -33,6 HÜRNEFORS

NORDMALING ^

10 20 30 < 0 50km

As was expected, the map of the distribution of those aged 0-19 shows a practically contrary picture. Throughout, electoral wards with an over­ representation of youth, have few aged people. In inland communes and com­ munes along the Norwegian border (with the exception of A sele), the wards containing a centre have a high proportion of youth. Thus, the picture is the complete opposite of the one of the distribution of aged people. Ana­ logously with the map of aged, the reserve situation is also found in the coastal communes, even i f the picture there is less homogenous. 78

4.4.2.1 Depopulation and Changes in the Age Structure

Of course, the maps and the tables of the regional distribution of the aged give only a static picture of the situation, but, for technical reasons concerned with the source of statistics, i t has not been pos­ sible to give information on the process over a period for each elec­ toral ward. In order to give an idea of the general tendency, a study of the change in the population figures in 1950-60 and in 1960-70 and the change in the median age during the same periods w ill be described below (table 4:4). Here the merged communes in Norrbotten and Väster­ botten at FoB 70, w ill be used as the relevant regions. 79

Table 4:4 Population and Median Age in the Merged Communes of Vaster- botten and Norrbotten 1950, I960 and 1970.

Coastal Total jDopulation Change in % Median Age Change in Median Age communes 1950 1960 1970 1950-60 1960-70 1950 I960' 1970 1950-60 1960-70

Boden 25504 28729 27149 +12,2 - 5,4 29,1 31,5 35,0 + 2,4 + 3,5 Haparanda 10615 9819 8888 - 7,4 - 9,5 25,2 29,3 30,3 + 4,1 + 1,0 Kal ix 19964 19664 18199 - 1,5 - 7,5 27,7 31,1 35,5 + 3,4 + 4,4 Luleå 42643 48528 58946 +13,7 +21,5 29,4 30,8 30,8 + 1,1 - 0,2 Nord- maling 10414 9538 8159 - 8,4 -14,0 31,5 36,0 41,0 + 4,5 + 5,0 Piteå 28912 30047 32829 - 3,0 + 9,2 29,8 32,9 33,4 + 3,1 + 0,5 Roberts- fors 10394 9234 7571 -11,6 -18,0 33,6 37,0 43,0 + 3,4 + 6,0 Skel­ lefteå 73618 73667 71539 + 0,1 - 3,0 30,1 33,0 36,0 + 2,9 + 3,0 Umeå 46323 54417 69582 +17,5 +28,0 30,4 31,0 29,0 + 0,6 - 2,0 Vindeln 10080 9834 7619 - 2,5 -23,0 31,4 34,0 42,0 + 2,6 + 8,0 Vännäs 13293 13479 12034 + 1,4 -11,0 29,5 32,0 37,0 + 2,5 + 5,0 Ä1 vsbyn 9295 9493 8686 + 2,1 - 8,5 26,8 30,1 35,5 + 3,3 + 5,4

Inla nd communes

A rv id s ­ ja u r 11117 10317 8400 - 7,1 -1 8 ,5 27,7 32,9 40,1 + 5,2 + 7,2 Gäl 1 i va re 22414 27670 25417 +23,4 - 8,1 26,0 26,9 31,0 + 0,9 + 4,1 Lycksele 15072 16611 14619 +10,2 -1 2 ,0 29,0 30,0 34,0 + 1,0 + 4,0 N orsjö 12708 12799 10892 + 0,7 -1 5 ,0 28,1 31,0 36,0 + 2,9 + 5,0 P ajal a 15196 14165 10745 - 6 ,8 -24,1 19,8 24,8 33,7 + 5,0 + 8,9 Âsele 13640 12662 9378 - 7,2 -2 6 ,0 29,1 33,0 43,0 + 3,9 +10,0 öve rkal ix 9215 8598 6023 - 6,7 -3 0 ,0 23,1 26,4 37,9 + 3,3 +11,5 ö ve rtorneå 10080 9471 7356 - 6,0 -2 2 ,3 20,5 23,8 34,0 + 3,3 +10,2

Border communes

A rje p lo g 5315 5573 4435 - 4,8 -2 0 ,4 27,6 30,7 38,4 + 3,2 + 7,7 Jokkmokk 10737 11533 7998 + 7,4 -3 0 ,6 28,6 29,5 37,5 + 0,9 + 8,0 K iruna 20432 28195 30623 +38,0 + 8,6 28,0 27,7 28,2 - 0,3 + 0,5 Sorsele 6129 5719 4316 - 6,7 -2 5 ,0 28,2 31,0 40,0 + 2,8 + 9 ,0 Storuman 9177 10409 8768 +13,4 -1 6 ,0 27,7 29,0 34,0 + 1,3 + 5,0 V ilh e l­ mina 10902 11335 8657 + 4,0 -2 4 ,0 28,0 30,0 38,0 + 2,0 + 8,0

Sweden 7041829 7462823 8076903 + 6,0 + 8,2 34,2 35,6 35,5 + 1,4 - 0,1

Source: FoB, LP-70 f Västerbotten. In 1950-60 the decreases in the populations of Norrbotten and Väster­ botten were comparatively small. Among the coastal communes the largest percentage decrease was 11,6% (in Robertsfors, where the decrease in absolute numbers amounted to 1160 people).

Among the inland communes, Asele had a decrease of 7,2%, which corre­ sponds to 978 people, and among the mountainous border communes, Sorsele by 6,7%, i.e . 410 people.

Nor did the median ages change so very drastically: a common increase for all types of communes was approx. 3 years, and the highest value measured refers to Arvidsjaur, where the median age rose from 27,7 to 32,9. A number of communes principially inland, have strikingly low values at the beginning of the 1950's, övertorneå, e.g ., has 20,5 years as a median age and Pajala 19,8.

The period 1960-70 shows quite a different picture. Among the coastal com­ munes, there are population decreases up to 23% (Vindeln), among the inland communes up to 30% (överkalix) and equally high values are found among the mountainous border communes. In the age structure, too, there have been con­ siderable changes: In överkalix, e.g., the median age has increased from 26,4 to 37,9, an increase of 11,5 years, and in the commune of Vindeln, the median age in 1970 was 42 years. By comparison, the national median age has changed very li t t l e between 1950-70, from 34,2 to 35,5 years.

There is an apparent correlation betweeh an increased median age and a de­ creasing population, which confirms a general observation that i t is mainly young people who migrate. The tables 4:7 and 4:8, show the regression lines and corresponding equations. The correlation coefficients are high for both periods, about +0,90 for 1950-60, and about +0,95 for the latter period. On the other hand, the b-values d iffer between the two periods.

During the former period, the b-value was approx. -0,1 and during the la t­ ter between -0,17 and -0,38. This means, that the intensity of the age shift has increased strikingly. This may be partly explained by the fact that the birth rates were high in many border and inland communes up to the beginning of the 1960's, but also by the fact that during the la tte r period i t was prin ci pi a lly the younger people who le ft. Figure 4:7 Regression Lines and C orrelatio n between X = Change in Median Age and Y = % Change in Total Population 1950-1960. r oo cr> o o in in in o in o in O f o CM in + in o in in in m c in o o in 81 in o o o CM in o o m CO in in o in o CM CO CM in o CM in O in m Figure 4:8 Regression Lines and C orrelation between X = Change in Median Age and Y - % Change in Total Population 1960-1970. CM o in m in m o in o in o in o in in o Ni C in CO m 82 in CM X in o m in in O CO in o m o 83

4.4.3 C LA S SIFIC A TIO N BY C E N T R A L IT Y 21 )

4.4.3.1 The Measure of Centrality

The second method of classifying electoral wards introduced in this thesis is based on the situation in retail trade. Poor access to retail services is a problem for most people in G-areas. The principles of a classification of this type are briefly as follows: When measuring the attractiveness of a place, as far as the services are concerned, some kind of measure of cen­ tra lity is generally used. In principle, there is no objection in taking a considerably larger area than that into account, when measuring centrality.2^ If we think of the electoral ward as a large place, sparsely populated on the periphery, there is, within each such 'place', one centre or more. An estimate of the centrality of a complete electoral ward does not d iffer from a traditional estimate: the joined polar strength of the 'place' is estimated with no regard to where the partial weights are situated within the 'place'. Others have also expressed the view that i t is often profi­ table to estimate centrality over an area including both a central place and its hinterland, arguing that the central functions are so dependent on the population of the hinterland that i t is not meaningful to fix a sharp border line between the central place and the hinterland.2^Thus it ought to be fully justified to have some form of measure of centrality as a basis for classification.

Since the purpose of the classification is to fa c ilita te a comparison bet­ ween areas on a low hierarchical level, it is evident that a classification based on centrality criteria alone ought to have a basis of autonomous func­ tions. An enumerati ve measure of centrality, like Jacobsson's index of cen­ tral it y ,2^ u ti 1 izes level characteristics, including both autonomous and 25) fixed references, and, therefore, i t should not be used in this context. 1 Even i f an enumerative method were constructed for retail trade exclusively» the use of such a method would imply d iv is ib ility of functions and establish­ ments, at a level where different forms of combined functions are frequent. Thus, the general grocery store, for instance, sells groceries, toiletries and hardware. One must therefore s till choose a method that aggregates the to ta lity of supply. 84

To test the relevance of measuring centrality over a whole electoral pr \ ward, God!und's method 'was used to measure the centrality both, on one hand of all n u c le i^ in the county of Västerbotten, and on the other hand of all electoral wards in the county. A comparison between the figures of centrality obtained showed no significant differences.

God!und's formula of centrality subtracts the 'unsophisticated' part of the retail services in G-areas by correcting the formula of centrality by a factor (K^), expressing the average supply of retail trade service on low levels.

There are therefore many indications that the God!und index should be appli­ cable as a measure in this context. It indicates absolute centrality, i.e ., it gives a measure of the total volume of the amenities offered, and it de­ ducts services at such low levels that has no impact on centrality. But the question is i f the number of shops is really a serviceable indicator to use in a measure which is intended in the fir s t place to describe the retail trade situation in G-areas. The average retail turnover in those areas is low, and there is therefore a risk that an estimate of centrality based on the number of shops will give values which are too high in G-areas. If a shop is shut down, the turnover will usually be transferred to other shops in the area. The whole turnover is unlikely to 'disappear'. I f there are no other shops, local substitutes of different kinds will take over part of the turnover. Thus, while turnover w ill decrease along a continuous scale, the disappea­ rance of shops gives a stepwise decrease, i f the amount of supply is calcu­ lated in shop units. Micklander28^has discussed the u tility of different mea­ sures of polar strength, and he grades, by decreasing exactitude the measures of the importance of retail trade, in the following way: turnover, employ­ ment, area of premises, number of shops.

I have come to the same conclusion as Micklander that, in this case, a measure of centrality calculated on measures of turn-over w ill give the most d iffe ­ rentiated results. 85

By a special print-out from the Account of Commerce of 1964, data of the branches, the adresses and turn-overs of all shops in the six northern­ most counties could be obtained. As regards the re lia b ility of this material, C-E Ericsson's study of the development of the retail trade in the county of Jämtland 1950-60 is firs tly referred to .^ T h e material was mapped, and could thereby form a basis of quantitative data for each ward.

Thus, the starting-point for the discussion is as follows: A classification can be made based on a measure of centrality. This measure should be based on autonomous functions, i.e ., in this case, the retail trade. Turn-over is a better indicator than the number of shops. The Account of Commerce of 1964 can form a basis for the calculations.

What kinds of consumption should be taken into account? There are reasons to believe that the structure of consumption varies by the social environ­ ment. To a great extent, the income class determines the distribution of the means available for consumption. As individual income rises, there is generally a relative shift from a consumption of necessities to a consump­ tion of less necessary things. Sociological studies also show, that members of higher social classes tend to have more varied and nutritious food than those in lower classes, which implies higher food expenditures. The consump­ tion of certain luxuries and to ile t articles shows a definitely higher level in urban than in rural areas. Furthermore, there were regional differences. Traditionally the consumption in northern Norrland, and in its inland in particular, has been characterized by an obvious puritanism.^The measure­ ment of the ‘unsophisticated1 supply discussed above ought therefore not to be based on the average national consumption, or on an area where all kinds of localities are represented.

In this thesis, the ‘unsophisticated1 supply, i.e . the supply of every day commodities, is defined as access to those retail services that, in the ISIC nomenclature include general grocery shop, news agents, tobacconist's and petrol station. The existence of a grocery shop and access to a car are given high priority in Âstrom's sociological study, and tobacconists' and news agents'suppli es are often available even in very small agglomeration A retail supply other than the above-mentioned will be referred to as "specia retail goods", in this thesis. 86

Since the number of shops will not be used as a measure, the 'unsophisti­ cated' supply has to be calculated as part of the total turn-over, and, for this purpose, i t is considered to be a reasonable approximation to assume that the consumption relevant in this context takes place at levels 31 ) below that of an electoral ward of 3000 people. 'Within the range 1-3000, there are groups with a comparatively high degree of self sufficiency, even though high income groups are sparsely represented.

The annual consumption of every day commodities is calculated for each ward separately, and the total sum is then transformed into a turn-over per head, by dividing this sunyby the total number of inhabitants.

The figure was 1300 Sw.Cr. Thus, in this year, 1963, every individual in the ward units of the research area with a population of less than 3000 in­ habitants used 1300 Sw.Cr. for every day com m odities.^It should be noted, that these calculations are subject to a systematic error, since the popu­ lation figures refer to 1965. Thus, areas that have been rapidly depopu­ lated may get too high per head figures. The error may, however, be con­ sidered to be of an acceptable size.

Taking into account the turn-over of every day commodities noted above, the principles of a measure of centrality, useable in this context, can be summed up in the following way: The total turn-over of the retail trade of an area consists of three distinguishable parts: a) the turn-over of special goods, b) the average turn-over of every day commodities, c) the turn-over of the part of the every day commodities that exceeds the average annual turn-over of 1300 Sw.Cr. per head. Naturally, this figure applies to the research occasion only.

The point a) adds to centrality, when the turnover of every day commodities is defined in this modest way. As regards the point c), I have considered a positive residual of the average consumption to indicate a certain degree of centrality. The reason is that a more extensive turn-over of every day commodities implies an increased turn-over also in the part of the merchan­ dise that is not classified as 'every day commodities'. Thus, the centrality measure, used in this thesis, consists of the turn-over of special goods + 87 thp positive residual of the turn-over of every day commodities.^ Centrality is measured on a scale which starts from a zero-point. The scale is constructed in such a way that minus-values might be obtained and that there is in principle no upper lim it. Thus, by definition, it is an interval s c a le .^

4.4.3.2 The Measurements of Centrality

The above-mentioned print-out of the Account of Commerce listed the adres­ ses of each retail enterprise outlet, and some data on the volume of turn­ over. The turnover figures for each electoral ward or cluster of wards were calculated on the basis of the mapped electoral wards.^The popu­ lation figure of the ward was multiplied by the calculated average turn­ over of every day commodities, i. e ., 1300 Sw.Cr. per head. In those cases where the recorded turn-over figures of every day commodities exceeded the estimated 'base value', this was noted as a firs t value of centrality. The turn-over of special goods was added to this figure.3^The total centrality calculated in this way will be given in 1000's of Sw.Cr.

The scores of centrality are given cartographically in a 10-point scale with consequently doubled intervals (see figure 8:1). In the tables below, the population in each interval, respectively, is distributed over the re­ search area according to county. Table 4:5 The Population of the Electoral Wards Grouped According to Centrality.

KOPPARBERG GÄVLEBORG

C en trality Population C entrality Population abs. % cum. % abs. % cum. % < -0 78179 27,7 27,7 < -0 75941 25,9 25,9 1-100 16299 5,8 33,5 1-100 13479 4,6 30,5 101-200 4338 1,5 35,0 101-200 1854 0 ,7 31,2 201-400 10019 3,6 38,6 201-400 13111 4,5 35,7 401-800 19470 5,9 45,5 401-800 14718 5 ,0 40,7 801-1600 14326 5,1 50,6 801-1600 9533 3,3 44,0 1601-3200 14806 5,2 55,8 1601-3200 15022 5,1 49,1 3201-6400 6384 2,3 58,1 3200-6400 16061 5,5 54,6 6401-12800 9316 3,3 61,4 6401-12800 9932 3,4 58,0 >12800 108786 38,6 iocr,o >12800 123001 42,0 100,0 o o o Z 281923 100,0 I 292652

VÄSTERNORRLAND JÄMTLAND

C e n trality Population C entrality Population abs. % cum. % abs. % cum. % < -0 73273 26,4 26,4 < -0 20103 15,4 15,4 1-100 12607 4,5 30,9 1-100 14022 0,7 26,1 101-200 6376 2,3 33,2 101-200 3877 3,0 29,1 201-400 17107 6,2 39,4 201-400 7674 5,9 35,0 401-800 16435 5,9 45,3 401-800 7219 5,5 40,5 801-1600 14905 5,4 50,7 801-1600 13489 10,3 50,8 1601-3200 21274 7,7 58,4 1601-3200 25135 19,2 70,0 3201-6400 23697 8,6 67,0 3201-6400 5652 4,3 74,3 6401-12800 11514 4,1 71,1 6401-12800 4908 3 ,7 78,0 >12800 80279 28,9 100,0 >12800 28769 22,0 100,0 z 277467 100,0 z 120848 100,0

VÄSTERBOTTEN NORRBOTTEN

C en trality Population Centrality Population abs. % cum. % abs. % cum. % < -0 72413 31,0 31,0 < -0 59107 22 ,8 22,8 1-100 11141 4 ,8 35,8 1-100 14782 5 ,7 28,5 101-200 7619 3,3 39,1 101-200 5493 2,1 30,6 201-400 11754 5,0 44,1 201-400 17158 6,6 37,2 401-800 7320 3,1 47,2 401-800 9316 3,6 4 0 ,8 801-1600 10012 4 ,3 51,5 801-1600 9430 3,6 44,4 1601-3200 6344 2,7 54,2 1601-3200 8823 3,4 47 ,8 3201-6400 12929 5,5 59,7 3201-6400 7997 3,1 50,9 6401-12800 13699 5,9 65,6 6401-12800 24466 9 ,4 60,3 >12800 80366 34,4 100,0 >12800 103007 39,4 100,0 233597 100,0' z 259579 100,0 89

There are striking differences between the counties. Jämtland has a com­ paratively low proportion of people living in wards completely lacking centrality. On the other hand, no less than 35,4% live in areas with a centrality figure in the interval 1-1600. This county has also the lowest calculated proportion of people in wards with valuer above 12800, namely 22%.

Both the counties of Kopparberg and of Jämtland form a contrast to this picture. In these counties, the proportion of inhabitants in wards lacking centrality is high, 27,9 and 25,9% respectively, whereas the proportion in classes with low centrality is low. The proportion of the population in the uppermost classes is 38,6 and 42,0%.

The structures of the two northernmost counties differ considerably from each other. Västerbotten has more than 30% of its population living in wards lacking centrality. Some further 20% of the population live in wards within the interval 1-1600. In Norrbotten nearly 40% live in wards with a centrality value above 12 800, while the corresponding proportion in Västerbotten is 5% lower.

Finally, in Västernorrland over 26% of the population live in wards lacking centrality, and over 24% in the interval 1-1600. The proportion of inhabi­ tants in wards with the highest score of centrality is comparatively low, 28,9%.37)

4.4.4 CLASSIFICATION WITH REGARD TO COMBINED QUALITIES

4.4.4.1 The Method of Measurement 3®)

The third classification method differs from the other two in as far as it combines a series of variables with a scale with discrete steps. The regional units of reference are the same, but when a distance factor is included, the distance has been estimated from an approximation of the median point of the population of the electoral w a rd s .^ 90

The classification method is based on the existence, or lack of i t , of the factors discussed above, i. e ., high proportions of aged people and surpluses in the turn-over of retail trade, and also on the distance to a number of public service provisions. Thus, while the status of an area from one single point of view was estimated by the two previous classifi­ cations of the electoral wards, this classification aims at giving a more complex picture by combining the two previous estimates with a measure of access to public services.

It should be emphasized that such a measure must necessarily include a considerable amount of subjectivity. Although some support for the variables selected in this thesis might be found in the sociological studies mentioned, there are, most likely, numerous arguments for excluding or substituting the included variables. In the introduction of this chapter it was clearly poin­ ted out that 'unacceptable' conditions have been the criterion that has di­ rected the choice of variables. Here 'unacceptable conditions' and 'long di­ stances to different supplies of services' are treated as synonymous. An in­ dividual's well-being naturally depends on many other factors besides these, e.g. the wish to stay proves to be strong even in areas with apparent de­ ficiencies as regard employment opportunities and service supplies.

These problems are closely related to the intensive argument whether the social sciences are value-free or not, an argument that has been carried on, above all, since the latter part of the 1960's.^There will be no further discussion of this matter in this context; I need only say, that I have been fu lly aware of the problems.

The measure, called Service Location Characteristics (S-L), is constructed in the form of a 'sieve', where the electoral ward to be classed is in itia l­ ly assumed to be on the highest level of a hierarchy. This hierarchy con­ sists of 1+7 classes, in which the highest class consists of wards which lie at such a high hiearchical level that the principles of classification used have been considered unsuitable. The aim is to be able to handle the situation at low levels. If there were an even increase up to wards with highly urban functions, this would involve placing too great a demand on the range of the measure, since it is primarily devised for measurement at low levels. 91

Thus the measure comprises the seven lowest stages in a scale as well as a superior part that comprises wards and clusters of wards with a 41 ) population of 2200 people or more. ; Consequently, the areas in the su­ perior class will be regarded as inclusive in a higher, not systematized, hierarchy. Exceptions have been made for wards which cannot f u lf il all the criteria to be included in the highest class, in spite of its high population figures. Instead they have been systematized in the same way as wards with a lower population.

The following variables form the basis of classification: a) Population structure, as measured by the proportion of aged people. b) Retail trade amenities, measured by the turn-over of retail trade of the area. c) Retail trade amenities, measured by the turn-over of special goods in the area. d) Proximity to ward ranged in a superior class (S-ward). e) Proximity to 15 selected public service provisions. f) Proximity to public service provisions considered to be of special importance. g) Situation in relation to superior ward. 92

The systematization of the classification w ill be evident in the figure 421 below. 'In principle, i t is an enumerative classifying method without any direct numerical relations between the levels. Thus, the c la s s ifi­ cation is arranged along an ordinal scale.

Figure 4:9 Level Criteria for S-L Classification.

Level Criteria

S >2200 inhabitants, criteria of level 1 fulfilled.

1 Low proportion of aged people (x-,). The turn-over of every day commodities >Sw.Cr. 1300 per head and year, or situation directly adjoining an S-ward (X2). Tiïe turn-over of special goods >3% of the total turn-over of retail trade (x^), or situation directly adjoining an S-ward (x3,x5). The entire battery of public service establishments are within a radius of 20 km from the median point of the popu­ lation (x6).

2 One of the criteria of level 1 is lacking

3 Two of the criteria of level 1 are lacking

4 Three of the criteria of level 1 are lacking

5 Four of the criteria of level 1 are lacking. Restriction as regards xß: The distance to all the four most important public service establishments must not either exceed 20 km (x7). If that is the case, there will be a fa ll in class provided that any one of these establishments is situated at a distance of more than 40 km (Xg).

6 Criteria for level 5 as well as (Xg) fu lfille d

7 Criteria for level 6 fu lfille d , and the entire set-up of public service supplies situated at a distance of more than 40 km (Xg).

Thus, the wards are classified by a number of restrictions, determining the permitted values of the variables. In the following, the variables x^-Xg, will be discussed. 93

a) Population structure. The proportion of aged people must not be too high (x-j). An analysis of the proportion of aged people has previously been given in this chapter. The lim it of an unacceptable proportion of aged people has been set at the upper quarti le lim it for the distribution of aged people over the wards. Thus, the lim it, leading to the fa ll in class of ward by one level, occurs at a proportion of aged people of 18%. The reason is predictive: areas with such a high proportion of aged people can hardly have any other future than one of contraction. This implies that the possible existence of service establishments motivating the cla s s ifi­ cation in a higher level may disappear from the a re a .^ A s has been shown above, the number of wards with the burden of having too many aged people tends to increase in areas with a heavy population decrease. A high pro­ portion of aged people has therefore been regarded as a justifiable reason for a fa ll by one class. b) Retail trade amenities. The turn-over of every day commodities (x^) that was used to measure the centrality of the electoral wards in the previous section, has been used as a measure of the supply of every day commodities. Thus, the turn-over of every day commodities refers to gene­ ral grocery shops, petrol stations and news agents. As has been shown by 44) Eriksson ,' the contraction of retail trade in G-areas started relatively early. Since, therefore, it is plausible to suppose that people have adap­ ted themselves to a rather limited supply, the demands on neighbourhood services are low. The annual turn-over of every day commodities (x^) should be higher than 1300 Sw.Cr. per head, i.e ., the average value that forms a basis of the estimate of centrality. The second criterion of retail trade, trade in special goods (x^) refers to the part of the total retail trade that comprises special goods. The demands set for the turn-over of special goods are low. The lim it has been fixed at a turn-over of special goods of 3%. In fact, this means that the only thing that is indicated by the c ri­ terion is if any form of trade in special goods is represented in the ward.

As regards wards adjoining wards belonging to a superior class, insufficient turn-over of retail trade has not been considered to be of any importance

(x3 ,x5 ). As has been mentioned above, the population is likely to be ac­ 94 customed to poor access to neighbourhood services in the retail trade sec­ tor of sparsely populated areas. Therefore, low turn-over figures cannot be said to have such a negative impact that i t justifies a lower class for a ward situated close to a ward with a high centrality score. In this con­ text, the consequence has been that, i f a ward directly adjoins a ward that has a centre with a population exceeding 2200 people and fu lfils the quali­ fications for level 1, insufficiencies in the local retail trade supply have not been allowed to affect the classification into levels in a negative way. Another reason for this procedure has been the fact that wards of a suburban character have normally a modest turn-over per head in the retail trade sec­ tor, since the population usually make their purchases in the centre. It should also be pointed out that the varying sizes of the ward areas produce the affect that a varying distance to the central place has been made a c ri­ terion for the classing into levels. I have considered this error, however, to be of acceptable size.

If , however, a ward is so peripherally situated that i t does not adjoin a highly central ward, I have regarded the lack of retail trade, with the low criteria set for such trade, to imply such a serious discrepancy from an ac­ ceptable level of retail trade that it is justified to make it fa ll by one class.

Access to public services must f i l l certain requirements set for wards on level 1 (xg). The calculations are based on the existence of a collection of services consisting of a series of 15 different kinds of public service establishments. The choice of establishments has been based on what might be called 'c riteria of reasonableness'. In itia lly , the existence of public ser­ vice establishments in the whole research area was investigated. Thus, with the support of the sociological studies dealt with in chapter 3, fifteen such establishments were selected as relevant, namely a resident medical doctor, maternity and child welfare clinic, dentist, home for old people, pharmacy, primary and secondary schools, other schools (e.g. technical colleges for forestry and domestic science) bank, post office, fire station, police sta­ tion, registry office, labour exchange, library. Those units normally make the most important part of the supply of services available in a locality 95 on level 1, or in the superior hierarchy. The level criterion is based on a concept of completeness. I f any one of these establishments is lac­ king within a 20 km zone (as the crow flie s ) from the median point of population of the ward, this justifies a lower class.

Moreover, one group of services have been considered to be of greater 451 importance than the others. 'Those are resident medical doctor, home for old people, dentist, primary and secondary schools.^The basis in this case has also been a concept of completeness. I f any one of these four establishments is lacking within a zone with a radius of 20 km, or within a zone with a radius of 40 km, these deficiencies have been reasons for a fa ll in class.

The final variable refers to an extreme situation, when all the services, included in the main lis t, are located at a distance of more than 40 km from the point of measurement.

4.4.4.2 The Regional Distribution of the Variables

As is evident from note 42,p 92,and figure 8:2, the classification is based on a series of questions with 'yes' or 'no' as possible answers to be given in each separate ward. The table below shows the regional distribution of yes-answers in relative figures. 96

Table 4:6 The Proportion of Yes-answers for the Variables x-,-xn Distributed Over Counties. 1 "

W X Y Z AC BD

Is the proportion of aged people X1 too high? 34,4 37,1 42,1 47,3 17,2 5,9 *3- Is the turn-over per head too low? 00 x2 49,3 51,7 52,1 63,8 63,8 x~, Poor situation in relation to un un X5 co

shopping centre? 79,1 •^J CO -P» 96,6 95,3 90,1

Is special goods shop lacking? 61,0 76,8 69,7 76,3 86,0 X4 79,1 Are there provisions on the major X6 00 lis t lacking within a 20 km zone? 60,6 44,3 49,5 82,1 64,4

Are there provisions on the minor X7 lis t lacking within a 20 km zone? 16,8 9,8 50,3 39,2 36,0 40,0

Are there provisions on the minor X8 lis t lacking within a 40 km zone? 1,0 2,0 0,5 8,3 5,9 15,4

Are all public service provisions X9 according on the main lis t lacking within a 40 km zone? 0,4 0,0 1,5 0,0 0,0 1,4

4.4.4.3 A Regional Comment x-j In this case, the two northernmost counties vary a great deal. Norr­ botten has only had 6% of its wards declassed because of a high pro­ portion of aged people, whereas Västerbotten has a much higher figure, approx. 17%. Jämtland has over 47% of the wards "sieved" o ff, and Väster­ botten 42%. In Kopparberg and Gävleborg 35-37% of the wards are in this group.

*2 Here the picture is contrary. Norrbotten and Västerbotten have both approx. 60% of the wards in turn-over classes below 1300 Sw.Cr. per head. The rest of the counties are grouped round values of 50%. 97

Xg,Xg In practice the variable reflects the distance to major purchase centres. In Västerbotten and Jämtland less than 5% of the wards have a situation in relation to a major purchase centre that may excuse defi­ ciencies in the variable or x^, in accordance with the discussion above. Gävleborg has the highest score, 26%, whereas the other counties have scores varying between 10 and 20%. x^ Here, Västerbotten and Norrbotten have the poorest scores - over 86 and 79% of the wards, respectively, have a turn-over of special goods that is less than 3% of the total turn-over of retail trade of the wards. Koppar­ berg has the highest score, 61% , whereas the other counties have scores bet­ ween 69 and 76 per cent.

Xg Jämtland has the lowest scores - over 87% of the wards do not satisfy the demands of completeness. Also Västerbotten shows low scores - 82%. Norr­ botten and Kopparberg have higher figures, between 60 and 65%. Gävleborg and Västernorrland have the best scores, 36-40%.

Xj The existence of public services on the minor lis t within a 20 km zone gives the following picture: In Kopparberg and Gävleborg only 17% and 10%, respectively, have fallen in class for this reason. Västernorrland has roughly the same proportion here as in x^ - approx. 50%. The scores of the other counties are between 36 and 40%. x0,x0 As regards the lowest levels of demands for public services: In o y Norrbotten approx. 15% of the wards have fallen in class according to Xg, in Jämtland approx. 8%, and in Västerbotten approx. 6%. The other counties have scores under 2%. In Norrbotten, Jämtland and Kopparberg on­ ly a few odd wards qualify for the lowest level, otherwise there are none.

4.4.4.4 The Result of the Classification

The distribution of wards over the counties is listed below, after classifi­ cation, in absolute and relative terms. The per cent scores are shown in the form of histograms. 98

Table 4:7 The Electoral Wards in Each County, Respectively, Grouped According to Attribution to Levels.

County Absolute Figures Level W X Y Z AC BD Total Research Area

s 14 16 16 3 9 11 69 1 34 26 18 3 11 21 113 2 44 36 43 23 40 28 214 3 51 39 63 37 89 67 346 4 41 42 70 53 151 74 431 5 31 30 35 60 80 40 276 6 8 2 7 23 36 30 106 7 1 0 0 3 0 4 8 CM CM] LO 205 4T6 275 1563 z 224 191 1

County Relative Figures Level W X Y Z AC BD Total Research Area

S 6,3 8,4 6,3 1,5 2,2 4,0 4,4 1 15,2 13,6 7,1 1,5 2,6 7,7 7,2 2 19,6 18,9 17,1 11,2 9,6 10,2 13,7 3 22,8 20,4 25,0 18,0 21,4 24,4 22,1 4 18,3 22,0 27,8 25,8 36,3 26,9 27,6 5 13,8 15,7 13,9 29,3 19,2 14,5 17,7 6 3,6 1,0 2,8 11,2 8,7 10,9 6,8 7 0,4 - 1,5 - 1,4 0,5 o o o o o o Z 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 99

Figure 4:10 Diagram Showing the Classified Electoral Wards in Each County, Respectively.

BD AC o f wards 30 % of wards

20

10

S ’ 1 ' 2 ' 3 4 5 6 7 S-L le v e l' S-L le v e l Z o f wards o f wards

S-L le v e l S-L le v e l

o f wards o f wards

S-L le v e l S-L le v e l'

Total Research 30 Area % of wards!

S-L le v e l 100

When looking at the distribution of all wards after the grouping into levels, the following picture is seen: The wards are fa irly well centred towards the classes in the middle. In classes 4-7, there are 52,6% of the wards. The lowest classes are strikingly weakly represented, while classes S and 1 together comprise 11,6%. Class 4 is the biggest with 27,6%.

Kopparberg and Gävleborg have a conspicuously higher proportion in the two highest classes, 21,5% and 22,0% respectively, compared with 11,6% for the total area. Västernorrland and Norrbotten have scores close to the average score, whereas Jämtland and Västerbotten have strikingly low scores, 3,0% and 4,8%, respectively.

If one compares the counties with regard to the two lowest classes, the high proportion of extreme G-area wards of the three northernmost counties is evident. The score of Jämtland is 12,7%, of Västerbotten 8,7% and of Norr­ botten 12,3%. Västernorrland and Gävleborg have only 2,8% and 1,0%, respec­ tiv e ly , whereas the score of Kopparberg is 4,0%.

I f the percentage scores of the four lowest classes are aggregated, the picture w ill be somewhat different. Kopparberg and Gävleborg have the lowest scores, 36,1 and 38,7%, respectively, whereas Jämtland and Västerbotten have a considerably higher proportion, 67,8% and 64,2%, respectively. Norrbotten with 53,7% is closer to the score of the entire research area, which is 52,6%

On the map, figure 4:11, the S-L scores for each electoral ward in the whole research area have been marked with a darker shade by increased S-L value. Totally dark areas denote S-areas, and totally white areas denote wards on the levels 6 and 7. As is apparent from the summary tables, the number of wards on the lowest level is very limited. There is no direct reason for distinguishing between the two lowest levels in a cartographical description, mainly because they have small population figures, which implies, as a result of the construction of the wards, that they have very large areas. A more fine-meshed net would have distinguished between an additional number of areas that should have been classed into the lowest level. 101

Figure 4:11 S-L Classification 1965 102

4.4.4.5 A Regional Comment

The totally black areas on the map correspond in general, to the situa­ tion of the localities which emerge in the discussion of the size of the "strategic localities" in chapter 5. Thus, the coastal area is strikingly dark. A dark belt also stretches from east of the mountain chain in the northern part of Kopparberg to Kiruna. North and east of Kiruna there are mainly light areas, as well as west of the belt, where the whiteness is broken only by the passage to Norway. South of Östersund the dark belt is divided and surrounds Orsa Finnmark, which stands out as a lighter area. The area between the coastal zones in Västernorrland, Västerbotten and Norrbotten and the dark area, consists chiefly of light areas, with the exception of dark areas here and there, abruptly standing out without any smooth transition as in the coastal zone. There is a conspicuously light zone inside the coastal area in Norrbotten. I t is, in general, bounded by a line Jokkmokk-Gällivare-Pajala-övertorneå-Boden. A corresponding light zone is found in an area limited by a line Ange-Vilhelmina-Storuman-Malå- Norsjö-Boliden-Vindeln. The area towards the border of Värmland which is bounded by a line S iljan-Grängesberg has a rather light shade with smooth transitions towards more central wards. There is a strikingly dark belt from the coast of Gävleborg via Gävle-Sandviken-Hofors-Falun-Ludvika.

The two lowest classes, which have remained unshaded in figure 4:11, com­ prised only 114 (7,3%) of a total of 1563 wards. In figure 4:12, s till another class has been unshaded, i.e . level 5. This gives the result that another 276 wards (now a total of 24,9% of the wards) have disappeared. The picture of the G-areas is made s till clearer. Both in Västerbotten and Norrbotten there is now a continuous chain of unshaded wards starting some 50 km from the coast. Moreover, the domination of the river valleys is be­ ginning to be apparent. Commune centres with adjoining wards stand out like islands. S till, the joined belt of more favoured wards along the coast is practically unbroken.

Finally, figure 4:13, shows the situation, when the wards within level 4 have also been le ft unshaded. On that level, there are 471 wards (30,1%). Now a total of 861 wards have been excluded (55,0%). Wards at higher levels 103

Figure 4:12 S-L Classification 1965 104

Figure 4:13 S-L Classification 1965

bcjr’dcry

Electoral VM 105

now stand out as exceptions in the inland and the Norwegian border areas and the coastal area are also fragmented. Even at a short distance in­ land from the coast the map shows large joined white areas from Väster­ norrland and northwards.

4.4.4.6 The Population in Different Types of Wards

How many people live in each type of wards? The table below gives the absolute and relative figures of the population of the different S-L clas­ ses, in the same way as the tables above, referring to centrality scores.

Table 4:8 The Population in the Electoral Wards, Grouped According to S-L level.

KOPPARBERG GÄVLEBORG

Population Population S-L level abs. % cum. % S-L level abs. % cum. %

S 101837 36,1 36,1 S 156475 53,5 53,5 1 40310 14,3 50,4 1 34207 11,7 62,5 2 63949 22,7 73,1 2 39822 13,6 78,8 3 46604 16,6 89,7 3 29088 9,9 88,7 4 17055 6,0 95,7 4 23284 8,0 96,7 5 8419 3,0 98,7 5 9284 3,2 99,9 6 3689 1,3 100,0 6 249 0,1 100,0 7 60 0,0 100,0 7 - 0,0 100,0 z 281923 100,0 Z 292652 100,0

VÄSTERNORRLAND JÄMTLAND

Population Population S-L level abs. % cum. i S-L level abs. i cum. %

S 130729 47,1 47,1 S 41595 31,8 31,8 1 26451 9,6 56,7 1 2952 2,0 33,8 2 42241 15,3 72,0 2 25538 19,6 53,4 3 41706 14,8 86,8 3 21408 16,4 69,8 4 24170 8,7 95,5 4 18622 14,3 84,1 5 10941 4,0 99,5 5 16717 12,8 96,9 6 1229 0,5 100,0 6 3545 2,7 99,6 7 - - 100,0 7 471 0,4 100,0 o o o z 277467 z 130848 100,0 106

VÄSTERBOTTEN NORRBOTTEN

Population Population S-L level abs. % cum. % S-L level abs. % cum. %

S 93043 39,8 39,8 S 121036 46,6 46,6 1 7867 3,4 43,2 1 22708 8,7 55,3 2 39741 17,0 60,2 2 34463 13,3 68,6 3 36850 15,8 76,0 3 33110 12,8 81,4 4 39050 16,7 92,7 4 29181 11,2 92,6 5 12900 5,5 98,2 5 11971 4,6 97,2 6 4155 1,8 100,0 6 6737 2,6 99,8 7 - - 7 400 0,2 100,0 Z 233606 100,0 z 259606 100,0

Rather few people live in wards categorised in levels 6 and 7. The total number of people is 20535, in all the counties, which corresponds to 1,4% of a total of 1 476 066 inhabitants. The proportion at the two lowest levels is highest in Jämtland and Norrbotten with 3,1 and 2,8%, respectively. In absolute figures Norrbotten dominates with over 7000 people, whereas Jämt­ land, Västerbotten and Kopparberg have approx. 4000 people at these levels. In Gävleborg the proportion is negligible.

If , as was done with the set of maps on pages 103-104, the lowest classes are cut off so that only the four highest remain, the number of inhabitants in the excluded electoral wards amounts to over 240 000, i.e . 16,4%. There are now great variations between the counties. In Jämtland the proportion is 30,2 and in Västerbotten 24,1. In the counties of Kopparberg and Gävle­ borg the proportions are only 10,3 and 11,3%, respectively, and in Väster­ norrland and Norrbotten 13,2 and 18,6%, respectively. In absolute figures the scores of Västerbotten and Norrbotten are the highest with 56 105 and 48 289 inhabitants, respectively, and the lowest in Kopparberg and Gävle­ borg with 29 223 and 32 817. In Västernorrland and Jämtland the figures are 36 340 and 39 355.

If we were to take class 3 as the minimum class for representing a standard of 'acceptable living conditions', i t would suggest, that in 1965 over 240 000 people in the research area were living in areas with an unacceptable access 107 to services. Today this figure would be smaller. The lack of statistical data makes it impossible to give an exact figure, but an example from Västerbotten may illustrate the development.^During the period 1965-68, the number of inhabitants living in the three lowest S-L classes decreased from 17 055 to 13 992, i.e . a decrease of 18%. Calculated over the county, this means a decrease from 7,3 to 6,0%.

The example thus illustrates what has already been pointed out above, that the areas on the periphery are rapidly being depopulated, even though an annual decrease of 6% must be regarded as an extreme one. During the firs t three years of the 1970's, the rate of depopulation has been lower. 108

Notes to chapter 4

1) The studies referred to have been published in Glesbygdsforskningen, reports nr 3, 4, 5 and 8. 2) Helmfrid (1969). 3) Bylund (1966). 4) The concepts ökumen - anbkumen have been discussed by Ahlenius (1903) According to Enequist, his definition corresponds fa irly well to the concept 'kulturlandskap'. The concept 'bygd' has also, according to Enequist, different meanings, varying with the approach of the authors. The definition of interest in this context is that 'bygd' should refer to one integrated economic area. See Enequist (1941). 5) Atlas över Sverige, map 49-50 and Rudberg (1957). 6) Samhällsutvecklingen i glesbygderna. ERU (in SOU 1972:56). 7) Harvey (1969), chapter 17 and 18. See also Abler-Adams-Gould (1971), chapter 4, Johnston (1958) and Helmfrid (1969). 8) Studies on the division into electoral wards and the classification of the wards has been published in Glesbygdsforskningen. In particular, see report nr 3: Erson-Weissglas (1969), which contains a map over the division into electoral wards in the six northernmost counties. See also SOU 1970:14. 9) A discussion on formalization of this lim it is found in SOU 1967:27. 10) See figure 4:3. 11) These concepts have also been discussed by Eriksson (1969) and Rice (1973). 12) Nordbeck-Rystedt have later used the maps of electoral wards construc­ ted by Erson-Weissglas, and the statistics compiled by them as a basis for a computer-made map of the population in northern Sweden. See Nord­ beck-Rystedt (1973). 13) Johansson (1970). 14) The studies referred to are mainly carried out by Erson and Holm, and published in Glesbygdsforskningen. See appendix, table 8:2. 15) In particular, see Erson-Weissglas (1969) in Glesbygdsforskningen, re­ port nr 5 and SOU 1970:14, bilaga 2. 16) See statistical compilations in Statistisk årsbok, 1954 and 1964. 17) Aström (1972). 18) Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 5. 19) Ibid. 20) Vesterlund-Norberg (1971). 21) In particular, see Weissglas-öquist (1969) and SOU 1970:14. 109

22) A discussion on the terminology of the concept of centrality has been carried out in Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 4. See also Micklander (1964). 23) Neef (1962) and Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 4. 24) Jacobsson (1959). 25) Naturally there is no objection to enumerative classification prin­ ciples being used in other contexts. On p 89, there is an account of a third classification system, where, among other things, the distance to different kinds of public services is one variable, and where the wards are arranged in an ordinal scale, i.e ., according to enumerative principles. 26) Godlund (1954) chapter XXII. 27) "Nuclei" is here used in the same sense as "orter" in the County In­ vestigation of Västerbotten (1961), e.g. places with any central function. 28) Micklander (1964) p IV:7. 29) Eriksson (1969) in Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 11. See also Gles- bygdsforskningen, report nr 4 and SOU 1970:14. 30) Bratt-Jonsson (1965) See also the reports of the Low Income Commission, and Samhällsutvecklingen i glesbygderna, ERU (in SOU 1972:56). 31) It should be noted that the wards of the localities have regularly been systematically amalgamated into larger units. Thus, even i f the upper population figure of a ward should not exceed 3000 people in this thesis, there are units with a considerably larger population. The amalgamations are the same for all the three classifications. 32) Figures showing average consumption of every day commodities 1970 are available in Statens Planverk (1972). 33) In particular, see Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 4, chapter 2. 34) See the references in note 7, this chapter. 35) See Glesbygdsforskningen, reports 3 and 4. 36) It should be pointed out that the turn-over of special goods is used as a factor in a classification system that will be presented later. 37) These centrality scores have also been used in County Programme (1970) of Västerbotten. 38) In particular; see SOU 1970:14 and Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 8. Parts of the classifications have also been used in the County Program­ mes (1970) of Västerbotten and Norrbotten. 39) Precision has depended on the availability of up-to-date maps of the distribution of population or corresponding grid maps for each county respectively. In most cases the solution of the problems has been evident in advance, since the centre of the electoral ward has been so dominant. A listing by coordinates of the wards has been published in Glesbygds­ forskningen, report nr 8. 110

40) A more thorough discussion on this subject has been carried out in Glesbygdsforskningen, reports 8 and 14. 41) Cf. the discussion about the size of the strategic localities in chapter 5. Among other things, it is shown in this chapter, that, what has been defined as an acceptable collection of service supplies, does not occur at population levels below 2200 in one place. 42) Techically, the procedure for classification is, that data for x^-Xg are fed into a computer that has been programmed for successive logical choices. If the ward does not fu lfil the demands on member­ ship in the superior class, it is directed through the schedule un­ t i l the criteria for the proper level are fu lfille d . The construc­ tion is shown in figure 8:2. 43) See the discussion on population bases of threshold values in chapter 5. 44) Eriksson (1969). 45) See Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 8 and SOU 1970:14, p 45-46. 46) It should be pointed out, that, as argued in chapter 6, the d istrict nurse should be given a high priority, when planning public services in G-areas. The reason for excluding this function in the present con­ text is, that the pattern of provision was being re-organised in many places. 47) Länsprogram -70 för Västerbotten, p 188, and SOU 1970:14. n i 5 The Strategic Localities

5.1 Planning and Central Place Hierarchies

In the previous chapter, different methods of measuring the extent and location of G-problems in the six northernmost counties were presented. The situation described referred to 1965. Previously, in chapter 3, I have given an account of the o fficial view of G-problems in the period 1940-65, as it was expressed in the public reports. To begin with, I shall give a brief account below of the tackling of the G-problems up to the beginning of the 1970's. In the fir s t place, attention will be focused on the discussion of a desirable central place structure, the background being that certain places have to service as key stones.

In general, i t can be stated that there has been an intensive discussion of the structures of central places thoroughout the whole of the 60's, not only in Sweden. Within the frame of the activity of the U.N., for example, a series of conferences have been held on the concepts Growth poles and Growth centers, where "Growth poles are those of a large scale and of a national scope, while growth centers are of a smaller scale and a regional scope". ^Behind the discussion all economically developed countries need to meet, by planning, all the problems of depopulation andbottle-necks that are caused by the transition to more and more sophisticated economies. Many scientists share the view, that a structure of centres situated strate­ gically both economically and geographically ought to be profitable, both for society and for the individual.

In addition to the above-mentioned conferences, it is also worth mentioning the activity of UNRISD, i.e . The United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, with A. Kuklinski, R. Petrella, R. Lasuén and T. Hermansen as coordinators. Together with K.J. Allen, Hermansen is responsible of the valu­ able summary of the discussions within the institute in an EFTA publication: Regional Policy in EFTA. An examination of the Growth Center idea, (1973). Teams have also been active within the Nordic countries. One result has been Rapport fra Nordisk Seminar om regional poi i t i kkens mål og midier, (Report 112 from a Nordic seminar on the aims and means of regional policy, a collec­ tion of papers from a seminar arranged by Nordisk arbeidsgruppe for samar- beid om forskning vedr0rende lokaliseringspolitiske sp0rsmål (1969).

As has been pointed out by Bylund, the discussion in Sweden about the size of localities has mainly dealt with three levels: 1. Minimum city size with a sufficient number of city advantages and a minimum of environ­ mental disadvantages. 2. Minimum size of a locality for an industrial and labour market environment, permitting a self-generating economic develop­ ment. 3. Minimum size of a locality as a basic guarantee for a minimum level of service provision.^

The discussion that follows will mainly concern its e lf with the lowest of the levels mentioned above.

As has been mentioned in chapter 3, the Näslund investigation, Aktiv lokali­ seringspolitik (SOU 1963:58), provided a basis for a proposal for a more active location policy. The B ill (1964:185), passed by Parliament in the subsequent year, contained a number of suggestions for provisions in order to control, or at least to alleviate, the effects of the rapid structural changes.

For a start, 800 m ill. Sw.Cr. were set aside over a five-year period as eco­ nomic support in the form of loans and grants for the establishment and the expansion of enterprises, in the areas where a strengthening of economy and employment were considered to be desireable. In the firs t place, the location support was made available within an area called "norra stödområdet" (the Northern Aid Area), comprising the four northernmost counties and Hälsingland, the northern part of Kopparberg, north-western Värmland, Dalsland and northern Bohuslän (see figure 5:1). In the proposal, however, i t was stressed that on­ ly a limited number of places could be supplied with industrial activities by social means, and that industrial expansion was not possible anywhere, simply because there was a surplus of labour. The support provisions were to be directed to places where from a social point of view the promotion of 113 development was most urgent. A division of support over a great number of places should be avoided, but no "support places" were named. In large parts of the G-areas and in several small localities one had to expect continued migration, and, thereby, worsened conditions for main­ taining acceptable public services for those who stay. It was pointed out in the proposal that an active planning policy was a basic condition for the realization of the target set for the location policy. On the regional level, research and planning were in the fir s t place to be co-ordinated by the County Administration Boards. The planning resources of the County Administration Boards were reinforced from 1965 onwards, and on a national level, a body, Lokaliseringsberedningen, was set up, with the task of achiev­ ing a co-ordination and survey of such location policy issues that concerned the fields of several governmental and civil departments. Among other things, the body was to in itia te different kinds of research and surveys to provide a firmer basis for governmental decisions in planning and locating issues, and to try to find solutions to different problems of adaption.

In connection with the activities of Lokaliseringsberedningen, the so cal­ led ' Expertgruppen för Regional Utredningsverksamhet1(ERU) (the expert group for regional investigation activity) was established. The tasks of ERU were to be both short-range and long-range. In the short run, investi­ gation activity was to be carried out to relieve the work of the Lokali - seringsberedningen, the Home Office and the regional planners. To the great­ est possible extent, decisions of a short-range character were to be given firm grounding. A long-term target for the activity of ERU was be to aim at the presentation of material which could serve as a background for the subsequent location policies, when the firs t five-year period plan had been carried out. ERU's firs t major publication, Balanserad regional ut­ veckling was published in 1970 (SOU 1970:3) together with two supplementary volumes with contributions from the research projects that had been attached to the activity. In one of these, Urbaniseringen i Sverige (SOU 1970:14), there is a collection of the studies of the G-research project that form the basis of chapters 4 and 5 of this thesis. Likewise, in a supplementary volume of the second major ERU report, Orter i Regional samverkan (SOU 1974:1), 114

a summary of some of the studies that form the basis of chapter 6 is published.

The G-problems were paid special attention to, among others, by a special project group for G-problems being constituted within H. M. Chancery. As has been mentioned in chapter 1, their publication 'Glesbygd' was published in 1969, and a committee was established for further investigation of the G-problems. The committee was called 'Glesbygdsutredningen' and published its reports in 1972. (See also chapter 2, p42 ).

As has been mentioned above, the location aid scheme was to be in operation for a test period of five years, 1965/66 - 1969/70. At the beginning of 1968, a committee was established with Provincial Governor Mats Lemne as chairman. It was given the task of investigating the future aid measures for location policies. Even at an early stage, i t was evident that it would not be possible to make any new radical proposals until the end of the test period, on the 1st of July, 1970, so instead they intended to present lim i­ ted proposals for changes in the system in operation, in the firs t place aiming at increasing support in those parts of the country where such measure; had proved to be of the greatest urgency.^

Simultaneously, together with a gradually strengthened team of regional eco­ nomic experts, the County Administrative Boards were working on a co-ordi­ nated preliminary plan for each county ( ' lansplanering 1967'). An important aim of this round of planning was to recommend to the County Administrative Boards on which merged communes the location political provisions should be concentrated.^

In 1960, an combined working party for co-operation in industrial location issues between the Government and Sveriges Industriförbund (Federation of Swedish Industry) delivered a report on the location prerequisites of 29 places within the aid area. The places had been chosen with regard to the views of the County Administrative Boards and the county-regional plan­ ning expert groups on where the location policy measures should be concen­ trated. 15 of these 29 places were situated within the area for which the 115

Lemne Committee had suggested special location policy provisions. The lo­ cation of these places are shown in figure 5:1.

The Lemne Committee suggested that the 15 places should be considered as priority places. In principle, special location support should be given to activities in only those places. But at the same time, the committee pointed at a number of merged communes that would, thereby, lack priority places, and they questioned whether additional places should not be in­ cluded, However, no concrete suggestion of any more priority places was given. Moreover, i t was considered necessary to get clear statements from the government to the effect that the aim would be to give long-term sup­ port to the priority places, and that satisfactory public services would be guaranteed. Figure 5:1 The Aid Areas and the Suggested Priority Places (1969).

c The General Aid Area BD. NORRBOTTENS LAN „ The Inner Aid Area

• « * • • • The Northern Aid Area

västerboven ^ V a n

* JAMTLANDS LAN • 13 ÏVÂSTERNORRLANDS

N w . y " ‘

15,.» X N> GÄVLEBORGS « J ' I \ \ KOP^ARBfRGsL . , • 1 \ T > N 1 v r S * VARM — • .r LANDS .• Suggested P rio rity Places J LAN * 1 Kiruna 2 Gällivare 3 Kalix 4 Boden 5 Luleå 6 Älvsbyn 7 Piteå 8 Arvidsjaur 9 Storuman 10 Vilhelmina 11 Lycksele 12 Strömsund 13 Östersund 14 Sollefteå 15 Sveg

300 km 117

No formal minimum limits for the population figure in the priority places were suggested, but it was considered that the places ought to be selected from the centres of the merged communes. The number of possible places was naturally, s trictly limited. As has been shown above, (chapter 2), a minimum number of inhabitants of about 8000 had been considered necessary as a basis for the enlarged responsibilities of the communes. By and large, this is the population reached by the merged communes in inner Norrland.

In the Bill to Parliament that was based on the report of the Lemne com­ mittee (prop. 1970:75), they were not prepared to name any priority places explicitly. The Minister declared, however, that efforts should be made to avoid a division in the location aid over a great number of places. The Bill referred to the fact that the priorities between places and merged com­ munes, should be co-ordinated by the new county planning round,County Pro­ gramme 1970. Having made the priorities more explicit they could give further information about the need for “support points". Special possibilities for aiding enterprises in the inland were available already in the firs t aid period, and further possibilities for differentiation could now be available, by the establishment of a special Inner Aid Area. (See figure 5:1).

Employment support was recommended for those industrial enterprises within the Inner Aid Area which increased the number of their employees. In ad­ dition, they suggested transport subsidies, training support and the possi­ b ility of grants and location loans for service activities, too, within the entire aid area. This area had now been extended by certain merged communes in the counties of Värmland and Kopparberg, subsequently called 'Allmänna stödområdet' (The General Aid Area', see figure 5:1). The Minister also de­ termined the principles of a grouping of the central places of the country, a grouping that would make a basis for the principles that should be used in the future priority decisions. Five categories were distinguished: Metro­ politan Areas, Alternatives to Metropolitan Areas, Regional Growth Centres, Service Centres in G-areas and Other Places (not in need of special support provisions). Among the 'Service Centres' in G-areas, two categories were distinguished: 1) centres where i t could be expected that location policy measures would be taken and that had already been indicated as "support 118 points" for the provision of services by Länsplanering 1967, and 2) centres where the experience of location policies had proved that means other than location aid had to be used to help the population to have ac­ cess to satisfactory services.

In the B ill it was also emphasized that from a planning point of view it would be convenient not do distinguish between centres and merged communes. The question of the distribution of public resources within each merged com­ mune, ought to be the concern of the local commune its e lf. A decision made by Parliament, based on the B ill of 1970, did not establish any priority places either, and an explicit selection was not achieved until 1973 when the proposition 1972:111, 'Regionalpolitiskt handlingsprogram' was presen­ ted. In general, this proposition was based on the above mentioned second major round of co-ordinated county planning, Länsplanering 1970. In the mean-time, however, a group within the Home Office, GRUP, 'Gruppen för Regio­ nal Utvecklingsplanering' (the Group for Regional Development Planning), had presented the outline of a more differentiated classification system.

GRUP's classification principles differed from the system presented in the Bill of 1970, mainly inasmuch as that additional levels of places were de­ fined within the categories 'Regional Growth Centres' and 'Service Centres'. Thus, no less than nine levels were defined in this classification system. From the point of view of this thesis, the fact that the group 'Service cen­ tres' as well as the group 'Regional centres' have been split up into three levels is of special interest. Figure 5:2 shows the places that have been classified in this way in the six northernmost counties. 119

Figure 5:2 GRUP1s Classification Scheme. 1 Metropolitan Areas 3a Primary Centre >100 000 • 3c inh. Including Alterna­ tives to Metropolitan Areas (2). 3a(s] Primary Centre close to Metropolitan Area.

4b 3b Other Primary Centre. 3c County Sub-Divisional Centre. v4b 3c/5 Other Places >30 km from Places in Categories 1, 2 or 3. 4a Service Centre. 3c 4b Centre in Merged Communes.

4b

3a.i

4 0 »

In the Bill 1972:111, the Government's view of the question of the classi­ fication of centres was expressed. The Minister said he based his opinion on the proposals of the County Administrative Boards on the classification of centres, which, with certain modifications, he considered to be suitable as a basis of a plan for the development of the regional structure. It is of interest to note that the number of levels was limited to four - Metro­ politan Areas, Primary Centres, Regional Centres and Municipal Centres. The fact that there were only four levels implies in practice an agreement with the proposal of Glesbygdsutredningen of a classification in the bottom of the hierarchy. It also means that the concept "Alternatives to Metropolitan Areas" was replaced by the more modest concept ‘Primary Centres1. After some small changes had been made, Parliament assented to the B ill. The definite classification is shown in figure 5:3 below. 120

Figure 5:3 The Official Plan for Development of the Regional structure«

1 Metropoli­ tan Areas. 2 Primary Centres. 3 Regional Centres. 4 Commune Centres.

5.2 The Discussion of Strategic Localities

As has been mentioned above, (chapter 3 ), Torsten Astronfs sociological study showed the attitudes and the preferences of the population in G-areas to different kinds of service supplies. Among other things his studies showed how a service set-up should be composed in order to correspond to the demands for a 'very good' service centre.

This is of course essential information. Migration from an area can be con­ sidered to be caused by a series of discontent situations, some of which are caused by an insufficient supply of services. It is convenient, however, to sp lit up the supply into different levels. The level discussed in this context almost corresponds to what is referred to as 'service on a local level' by Glesbygdsutredningen.^In this thesis, centres that with any cer- 121

tainty can offer services according to Äströms's lis t , are called “strate­ gic lo calities1'.

The area studied is experiencing a painful process of adaption, passing through an expansion stage into a contraction phase, the end of which can­ not be foreseen. By and large, the different service provisions are sub­ ject to traditional market mechanisms. The existence of each separate ser­ vice provision is grounded in more or less explicit economic reasons. Thus, threshold values regulate the provisions, and values below these threshold values cause (after some delay) the withdrawal of the service, in most cases.

In chapter 6, the importance of neighbourhood service will be discussed. It is s till of course essential for a region to have a stable set-up of services at a higher hierarchical level. In the firs t place, the purpose of this dis­ cussion is to analyse the existing strategic localities and to give standards for the threshold values that support them. The consequences for planning are obvious. If a place, strategically situated, has not got a sufficient number of inhabitants to reach the threshold values this is an indication that some sort of measures w ill, sooner or later, have to be taken by society to pre­ vent a reduction in the provision of services.

The discussion in its e lf of the minimum size of a strategic locality was in i­ tiated much earlier than in the middle of the 1960's. In a supplement to the final report of the Social Housing Commission (Bostadssociala utredningen), (SOU 1945:63), Uno Ähren discusses the desireable size of place able to pro­ vide different kinds of material and cultural services. Ähren states that there are no clear norms for what standard level could be regarded as neces­ sary, nor, consequently, what threshold values are required. According to Ähren, a population of 2000-5000 people is a cautious estimate of the number of inhabitants required for a ‘decent practical and cultural service1. In 1940, there were only 99 localities in that size group, and, if certain places of a suburban character were excluded, there would be a remainder of approx. 1000 localities that would be too small from this point of view. 122

ÄhrérTs discussion is presented in the AMS report, Samhällsservice och lokal i seringsverksamhet (1960), referred to previously. In this report, the discussion is summed up in the following way: Places with a popu­ lation basis of 30- 40 000 inhabitants, including both the locality it­ self and its hinterland, are considered to be able to give good service. On a basis of 7-8000 people, i t is possible to maintain a relatively com­ plex service. In spite of the deficiencies in the service provisions in the la tte r places, they are likely to be accepted as residential and in­ dustrial locations.^

Similar figures are also found in Sven Dahl's Det svenska nätet av handels­ orter (1965). There it is stated, that a market centre having a population of 5-8000 people, including the hinterland, can supply most of the retail trade services that are demanded by the individual.

Other, lower values are discussed in a report by the planning committee of the County Administrative Board of Kristianstad, Tätorterna i Kristianstad (1968). Without giving a detailed definition of the composition of a set­ up of services they point out that the experience in Skåne suggests a mini­ mum population of 2000-3000 to enable a central place to maintain a minimum standard, provided that i t has a hinterland to back it up.

The estimates of the threshold values for different service provisions, made by the trade and professional organizations, w ill be dealt with further on in this chapter.

In an appendix to the Långtidsutredningen 1966 (the report of Long-term Plan­ ning Committee) Torsten Hägerstrand stated, that there was probably a mini­ mum size for localities below which it would not be possible to fu lfil es­ sential welfare criteria. Hägerstrand also pointed out that these central functions could, in themselves, be carried out by groups of minor localities, provided that they were situated sufficiently close to each other and were prepared to divide the tasks between themselves. No doubt such a division of functions would also be possible in the six northernmost counties. But, in the fir s t place, this discussion refers to clearly mononuclear regions. (See 123

for instance By!und"s discussion on overlapping commuting areas in SOU 1970:14 and Regioner att leva i (1972).

The problem we must now solve is how to find a 'guaranteed size1 for the strategic localities in the research area.

5.2.1 CRITERIA OF MEASUREMENTS AND CALCULA­ TION OF POPULATION BASES

The way of tackling the problem which follows may seem simple: an inventory of service provisions should be capable of indicating which central places have an aggregate of services as defined according to the above-mentioned norms.

The somewhat predictive aim of an estimate of strategic localities, however, makes it less suitable, to my mind, to actually investigate in detail the existence of each separate service function in the different localities. This is an area of contraction, where the phenomena of contraction proceed with varying intensity and in various ways, depending on the situation and the point in time. The service supply within the retail trade sector gene­ rally lags behind by comparison with changes in the population, whereas the corresponding lag in the public sector proceeds in accordance with a d iffe­ rent pattern. Thus the service pattern at a given point of time does not - in depopulation areas - correspond to the population living within the range of the different supplies, and I have therefore, decided to fix the base points by means of a general method, where the population basis is the c ri­ terion of the level.

One of the main themes of the sociological section of the 6-research is the attitudes and the preferences of the population in G-areas as regards private and public services. Among other things, one result of these studies has been the definition of a service aggregate, comprising a number of service establish­ ments. The existence of this set-up in a central place means that this locali­ ty has been characterized as 'very good' - from a service point of view. The sociological studies have also shown that the urban reference group shows similar attitudes towards this service aggregate. 124

It follows that the existence of such an aggregate should indicate that a locality is situated sufficiently highly in the hierarchy to remove the primary reasons for dissatisfaction with the service situation.

Thus, a strategic locality, defined in this way, would to some extent en­ sure that dissatisfaction with the supply of services is not a reason for emigration. On the other hand, the choice of strategic localities tells nothing about the labour market situation within the area.

The lis t of service establishments constituting the 'very good' service aggregate, according to the study by Åström, consists of the following: general store, grocery shop, hardware shop, chemist's, shop, e le c tricity­ radi o-TV-servi ce, department store, men's and women's outfitters, shoe shop, men's and women's hairdressers, doctor, dentist, bank, post office, church, cinema, café, commune office, labour exchange, local social in­ surance o ffic e .^

At an in itia l stage, the existence of these service establishments in all the places in the research area was investigated. 'Place1 was given a wide definition, which had the effect that a total of 1973 nuclei were investi­ gated. In fact, this implied that all habition clusters with any central function according to the lis t above were included in the investigation. The places were grouped according to the siz^ of population into the groups 1-199, 200-399, and so on. Over the level of 2200 inhabitants, i t turned out to be meaningless to have closed classes. The material shows such a scatte­ red picture that a specialized place of an extreme industrial character, for example, or a place of a suburban character, whould be too dominant, i f ap­ pearing alone in one class. Consequently, all places over a population level of 2200 are grouped into one open cl ass.^

Public services correspond closely to the retail trade pattern so far as cer­ tain profit criteria are taken into consideration, in the form of a popu­ lation basis in both fields. There is one essential difference, however. The establishment and the withdrawal of a public service provision are due to political decisions, which could imply that changes occur in ways other than might be indicated by the population basis. For these reasons, I have come to 125 the conclusion that the threshold values for a commune office, labour exchange and a local social insurance office cannot be estimated in the same way as the other service establishments.

Furthermore, the functions 'church', 'café', 'bank', 'post o ffic e ', 'de­ partment store', 'general store', and 'men's and women's hairdressers * have been d iffic u lt to define, partly because of the inconsistencies in the classified telephone directory and because of some ambiguities in the interview investigation. Therefore, in the estimates of the threshold values reported below, (pi29), these functions have been excluded. Instead, a general discussion about the existence of these functions follows below.

The labour exchanges have a head office in each county capital. Under this head office, there is a number of branch-offices in places which may have greatly varying numbers of inhabitants. Normally, they have been located in the commune centres. Under the branch-offices there is a network of mobile exchanges. The latter operate in places with populations around 400 inhabi­ tants. On the lowest level, there is a system of local employment officials. The sizes of the places vary greatly. Some of the places are on a very low level in the hierarchy of places, while others are on a comparatively high level. The impression given by the spread suggests, that proximity to major centres has had a pronounced influence, so that relatively big places, situa­ ted within a short distance from a major centre that is provided with a branch- office, has only a local employment o ffic ia l. The following summarises the picture: this form of public service exists in some form even on a very low level,9^and it could therefore be stated as a certainty that i t is located in places having the rest of the aggregate of services.

Local social insurance o ffice. The local insurance offices are much more scattered. The county community is covered by means of a net of local offices, serving a defined area. These areas consist of one commune or more, and the branch-offices are located in commune centres. There seems to be no demand for proximity attached to this activity. It appears to be part of the general pattern, even in major centres with one branch-office or more, that communi­ cation with applicants is carried out by mail. 126

Commune offices. Commune officies and other social functions linked to those offices are, in most cases, located in the dominant centre of the commune, and, thereby, they are not appropriate to a discussion of thres- hold values.10^

Church premises could be considered to be referred to as 'public service', in as far as they are public places of meeting. The d ifficu lties of defi­ nition (State Church, and Free Church premises, etc.) made me omit this item in the course of the study. No doubt church premises do exist on a very low level of place hierarchy.

Café, could be looked upon in the same way, from certain points of view. The sources available show li t t l e agreement within the region on their definition. The item 'café' appears in the classified telephone directory, but a check showed li t t l e correspondence with reality. Baker's shops, too, often have certain service activities, and the same goes for certain types of grocery shops. As is considered to be the case regarding church premises, this function is likely to be found on a very low level.

Bank - post-office. The situation with regard to bank - post-office is simi­ lar. A post-office fills certain bank functions, and, to a limited extent, banks are able to undertake certain postal functions. The Postal Admini­ stration has a network from general post offices down to rural postal de­ livery circuits, whereas the banks locate their offices according to business- oriented principles. Bank offices exist on fairly low levels and post offices at very low levels.

Department store. There is no generally accepted definition of 'varuhus' (department store). Handelns Utredningsinstitut (the Research Institute for Commerce) points out that the course of the development is towards a broader and more extensive choice of goods within the department store. It should thereby be possible, within a few years, to introduce a much stricter defi­ nition of 'varuhus'. Turitz & Co and Âhlén & Holm, (well-known chains of de­ partment stores), give roughly the same definition of their 'varuhus'. The cooperative society (KF)divides theirs into A- and B-'varuhus'. The older 127

'B-varuhus' has a more limited choice of goods. In addition to these de­ partment stores, KF has small supermarkets, which cannot be defined as 'varuhus1. These three multi-branch companies comprise 317 out of a national total of 355 'varuhus'. I f one tries to define the concept 'varuhus', using the information on goods as a basis, only 16% of these could be said to have the complete, all-round merchandise of a department store. The multi-branch companies are occupied with re-organization within the research area, new buildings are planned and the re-building of older 'varuhus' is being aimed at. Since the analyses of the interviews in G-areas showed that the d if f i­ culties of defining 'varuhus' implied serious risks of error, it was con­ sidered that 'department store' should be omitted from the analysis of the aggregate of services, presented above.

General store has been omitted from the subsequent analysis, because i t is not reasonable to regard the existence of such a shop as a criterion of level. The existence of general grocery shops also proved to be rather un­ interesting in the sociological study of a 'very good' aggregate.

Hairdressers: In this case, i t was also considered useless to base an esti­ mate of threshold values on the material available. One reason is that the function, as defined in the sociological study, had been given a double meaning, i.e ., hairdresser for both men and women, and i t is often the same people that carry out both functions. This implies, that is has been impos­ sible to rely on the classified telephone directory in this respect. More­ over, hairdressing is likely to be frequently carried out by people other than professional hairdressers. Material has been collected, however, and there are indications that places with more than 800 inhabitants (with a few exceptions) have hairdressing establishments.

Thus, the following service functions remain for an estimate of threshold values: Grocery shop, hardware shop, electricity-radio-TV-service, motor­ garage, cinema, men's and women's outfitters, shoe shop, chemist's shop, doctor and dentist. The threshold values of the entire aggregate of service supplies have been calculated on the basis on an operationally defined concept of completeness: 128

The necessary size must be one where each separate service establish­ ment exists in at least 2/3 of the places of that size. Furthermore, the mean score of all establishments must exceed 90%, calculated ac­ cording to the following formula:

inn i the number of places lacking any one of these establishments u the number of places x the number of service functions surveyed

The table below presents the result of the s tu d y .^ Population of the place 1- 200- 400- 600- 800- 1000- 1200- 1400- 1600- 1800- 2000- 2200- The number Service 199 399 599 799 999 1199 1399 1599 1799 1999 2199______of places function — t O) rtJ i— 4-> - - O "O O - t/i S- 129

o t r O LO co \ " O C\J - r « CO i— <3- CO

c .c .c — +-> r— +-> to -t-> o

130

Results: The class of places with a population of 2000-2199 is the level at which the criteria are almost completely fu lfille d . 90% and 2/3, res­ pectively, may seem low, but these criteria have been selected with the implicit idea, that a s tric t hierarchy of functions does not exist in the research area. There are also a few major places that lack establishments found on lower levels. This does not imply that the size of the place is not 'sufficiently large' for the establishment that is absent, but that the lack is the result of strong specialization, other arbitrary circum­ stances or the closeness to a separate centre. The availability of services in places definitely above the size normally required for a particular ser­ vice establishment is a more reasonable ceiling of completeness than '100%' would be. Therefore, comparisons should be made with the proportion of the open class, in which all the major places are grouped. The score of complete ness of the open class is only just over 3% above the level where the criter are fulfilled.

As has been mentioned above, i t is pointless to continue classifying places with over 2200 inhabitants - the number of such places is too small. There­ fore, as an approximation, the upper lim it of the interval 2000-2199 has been fixed as the level where the criteria of completeness are fu lfille d . Figures 5:4 and 5:5 shows the degree of completeness in a diagram form.

Completeness Figure 5:4 Diagram of the Degree of Completeness •/. by Size of GroupsT All Functions In- cluded. 100

90 -

8 0

7 0 -

60 -

50

40 -

30

20

1 0 //V ------0 - 200-400- 600- 800- 1000-1200-1400-1600- 1800- 2000-2200- 199 399 599 799 999 1199 1399 1599 1799 1999 2199 Size of Places 131

Figure 5:5 Diagram of the Degree of Completeness by Size of Groups. Each Service Function Analysed Separately.

100 7 « Shoe shop 100* /o r Motor garacje 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 50 40 30 30 20 1 0

0 i i— i— i— i— i— i— i— i— i— i— ^ vl 0

Doctor 1 0 0 ° Cinema 100 ’/o T 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20

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Electricity - radio- Chemist's shop 1007a * TV-service x * 100 7» X 90 - 90 - X ** 80 -i X 80 - X, 70 ■ X 70 - 60 - 60 - X 50 - X 50 - X X 40 - 40 -

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Hardware shop Grocery shop 1 0 0 ' '/•T loov. 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20

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Men's and Women's Dentist 100V.-r outfitters * 100 Vi* X * 90 - 90 - X 80 - X 80 • y 70 - X 70 - 60 - 60 - X X 50 - 50 - 40 - X 4 0 - 30 - 3 0 - 20 - 20 -■ 10 - i o -

o - — 1— 1— 1— 1— 1— i— 1— i — 1— 1— 1------h 0 ■■ i i i i i , , i i 1 1 J J. A -1* c*j ui vi co ■- w tn -j CD CD CD CDcDCDCDOCDCDCD CD (D ID CD 10 10 CD CD O CD CD CO CD CD CD CO CD CO CO CD t o CD CD CD CD CD CD t o t o 133 5.3 On the Size of Strategic Localities

5.3.1 THE ADDITION TO PURCHASING POWER BY THE POPULATION OF THE HINTERLAND

The threshold value of 2200 people that has been the result of the calcu­ lations made in the previous section, does not correspond to the real basis of purchasing power. The contribution from the trade area must be added to the number of people in the central place. A discussion on the size of this contribution follows.

One of the issues is in what ways a change in the population in the hinter­ land affects the threshold values of the strategic localities. With the exception of minor localities of a surburban character, the characteristic feature of the population development in the research area is that major localities tend to grow, or at least, do not decrease.^Depopulation is something that affects scattered settlements and minor localities. To a large extent, this is also where the supply of services has been withdrawn, whereas the major central places are often strikingly well supplied as far as services are concerned. The lack of closely situated services as an a l­ ternative to those of the central place, has influenced the sensitivity to distance to the extent that the intensity of the decay has been weake­ ned by comparison with previous decades. Distance no longer affects the propensity to consume to the same extent. It is hardly possible to ana­ lyse this correlation in detail, since the levelling of the gradient of decay coincides with a period of heavy increase in car usage. The fact re­ mains that, especially in the 60's, the curve of decay has been le v e lle d .^

The number of places within the research area with a population over 2200 inhabitants is very limited. In practice, it is only the main centres of the communes that reach this figure, with few exceptions.

From a traditional central-piace theoretical point of view, each of these places is a centre of a network of subordinate places, the centre being at the same time one of the foundations of a superior hierarchy. The places in the vicinity of a central place are small, and they have a demand cone that, 134

only in regard to certain, particularly local supplies, rises through the mantle surface of the superior central place. Further away from the central place, there is a major centre, the demand cone of which rises conspicuously above the mantle surface of the central place but with a steeper rate of decay. Somewhere along the radius of the range, the boundary of the inner range will be reached, i.e ., where the threshold values of the central services of the central places are reached. If we continue along the radius, we shall gradually reach the boundary of the outer range, i.e ., where consumers abstain from consuming the services of the central place, and either substitute for them or consume them in a centre on a corresponding level that is more closely situated. This can be illustrated by a sketch:

Figure 5:6 Central Places and Spatial Demand Cones According to Christaller's Marketing Principle.

X C en trality

^ Distance Demand Curve

Demand Curve estimating demand for special local supplies A-E Centres

A B C D E

Source: Godlund (1954), SOU 1961:9,Berry (1967) and M o rrill (1970.

The answer to the question where the boundaries of the outer and the inner ranges are, naturally depends on, partly, which service function is studied, and partly on local conditions. That substitution effects 135

do arise, even in highly specialized sectors such as, for instance, medical care, is a matter of fact. (See, e.g., chapter 6).

If the threshold population used the central place for all their shop­ ping, it would imply that the threshold value of the central functions of the central place would be equal to the number of inhabitants in the central place plus the population within the inner range of the entire aggregate of services of the central place.

Now we know that this is not the case. The propensity to go to the central place for all shopping diminishes with increasing distance and intervening opportunities. A great number of studies concerning the size of the dis­ tance exponent have been carried out, but there are not results available that are generally applicable to a situation such as this. The picture is not least biased by regional variations depending on preferences, income levels and the domination of various means of communication, etc.

5.3.1.1 The Local Shortfall

Below follows a discussion of the size of the proportion of the purchasing power outside the strategic localities that should be included in the thres­ hold values of the aggregate of services. The general functions of decay that are traditionally applied, contain, in principle, the following compo­ nents: 1) 'leakage' to local shopping centres and others, 2) lower income level in minor places and G-areas, 3) pure reluctance to travel. In addition to these three points, I think a further point should be added: 4) 'leakage' to places conspicuously superior to the nearest strategic localities.

The population of the research area is distributed over G-areas andsize classes of localities as shown in table 5:2. 136

Table 5:2 Total Population of the Research Area, Distributed Over Localities and G-areas. "

County Total popu­- Population Population in Population in lation in G-areas localities <2200 localities >2000 abs. % abs °/o abs. % Kopparberg 282093 66607 23,6 53448 18,9 162038 57,5 Gävleborg 292581 77190 26,4 48524 16,5 166867 57,1 Väster­ norrland 277294 89260 32,1 53661 19,3 134373 48,6 Jämtland 131046 67010 51 ,1 34016 25,9 30020 23,0 Väster­ botten 233423 96080 41,1 41458 17,8 95885 41,1 Norrbotten 259418 76365 29,4 58067 22,3 124986 48,3 1475855 472512 32,0 289174 19,5 714169 48,5

In total there are 544 localities within the research area. They < ire distributed over size i classes as shown in the following table:

Table 5:3 Localities Classified by Size.

Locality Size 200-599 600-999 1000-1399 1400-1799 1800-2199 2200 z

Number of Localities 311 92 31 29 10 71 544 % 57 17 6 5 2 13 100

As is apparent in table 5:2, localities with a population exceeding 2200 people comprise 48,5% of the population, and the minor localities 19,5%. If the population of these places is distributed over the same size classes of localities as in table 5:3, the following figures w ill be obtained:

Table 5:4 % Population by Size of Locality.

Locality Size % Population 200-599 41 600-999 24 1000-1399 12 1400-1799 15 1800-2199 8 E ioo% 137

How great a proportion of the purchasing power of the hinterland goes to the local centres? Table 5:1 showed degrees of completeness for each res­ pective class of localities. Even in G-areas and at a low place level, the degree of completeness as regards certain services, was quite high. This implies that a great deal of purchasing power is used for local pur­ chases. Furthermore, we should bear in mind that the different service functions have different weights, depending on from which point of view they are graded.

In the following, the values of completeness will be weighted by refe­ rence to the frequency of visiting, i.e ., highly frequent service functions will have a higher weight than less frequent ones. The weights have been selected from a study of a G-commune showing great sim ilarities to an ‘average1 G-commune as regards population, place structure, economy and rate of depopulation, namely Vindeln in the county of Västerbotten (see 14) fig 6 :8 ). ' The total aggregate of services in this commune was examined with regard to frequency of visits by means of interviews. Two service functions dominated the visiting pattern strongly, namely grocery shop and petrol station - garage. The other functions showed low and relatively un­ differentiated figures of frequency of visiting.

Provided that the figures of v is it frequency, obtained at Vindeln, for grocery shop and petrol station - garage are representative of the research area, and that the other eight functions may stand for the other services in the commune centre, the weights will be as follows: 31,5 for grocery shop, 17,0 for petrol station - garage, and 6,4 for each one of the other service functions, separately. Table 5:5 shows the weighted values of completeness. 138 Table 5:5 Weighted Values of Compìetenessx^

Size of Values of Completeness Values of Completeness Locality before Standardization after Standardization to 100 to 100 G-area 23,54 25 200-599 33,25 36 600-999 48,83 52 1000-1399 63,06 68 1400-1799 68,20 79 1800-2199 84,65 91 > 2200 92,96 100

5.3.1.2 The Addition of the Purchasing Power by G-areas

As has been shown above, the proportion of the population in G-areas is 32%. Their own completeness is 25% according to table 5:5. Let us use a hypothetical area of 10 000 inhabitants as a starting-point. Out of these people, 3200 live in G-areas. A 25% reduction of 3200 gives 2400. The rest of the demand in G-areas is satisfied, partly in local centres, partly in the strategic locality.

I f we assume, that the population in the research area is distributed equally over the area, so that the 544 localities would also be equally distributed, this would imply that the remaining purchasing power of the G-areas would be distributed proportionally to the proportion of localities in each size class.

The result of these calculations is shown in table 5:6 below. x) The method of calculation is shown in the following example: In the class 0-199 (G-area), 799 out of a possible total of 1315 places had a grocery shop and 274 a petrol station - garage. Only a few places had supplies other than these:

= 23,54 139

Table 5:6 Distribution of Purchasing Power Within G-areas.

Size of Purchasing Power from G-areas Grouped by Size of Locality______Locality______200-599 311 . 2400 = 1372 544 600-999 92 . 2400 = 405 5W 1000-1399 31 . 2400 = 136 544 1400-1799 29 . 2400 = 127 544 1800-2199 10 . 2400 = 44 544 > 2200 71 . 2400 = 316 544

The 316 population units in G-areas that according to table 5:6 are closer to the strategic locality than to any other locality will, according to the conditions, locate the remainder of their consumption there. The other population units distribute the remainder of their consumption between the local centre and the strategic locality.

As has been shown above, 25% of the purchasing power in G-areas has been accounted for by local consumption, and thus, as regards the consumption in local centres by the population in G-areas, the weighted degree of com­ pleteness must be reduced by that value. These estimates are shown in table 5:7. 140

Table 5:7 Reduction of the Degree o f Completeness.

Size of Weighted degree Weighted degree Population in Population in Locality of completeness of completeness G-areas for G-areas after of the locality after reduction each class of reduction locality 200- 599 36 11 1372 1221 600- 999 52 27 405 295 1000- 1399 68 43 136 77 1400- 1799 73 48 127 66 1800- 2199 91 66 44 15 z 1674

Thus, by this procedure, the original number of inhabitants in the G-areas has been reduced from 3200 (32% of the total population), to a purchasing power corresponding to 316 + 1674 = 1990 (19,9%) inhabitants in G-areas.

5.3.1.3 The Addition to Purchasing Power by Localities

In minor localities, there are, according to previous estimates (table 5:2), 19,5% of the total population, or 1950 people i f we continue the arith­ metical example with 10 000 inhabitants as a starting-point.

Table 5:8 shows the proportions of population and the weighted degree of completeness in each class of locality sizes, and the number of inhabitants after reduction. 141

Table 5:8 The Proportion of Purchasing Power in Classes of Locality Size After Reduction for Own Degree of Completeness.

Size of Share of Weighted degree Share of population after Locality population of completeness reduction 200-599 41% = 799 36 511 600-999 24% = 468 52 224 1000-1399 12% = 234 6 8 74 1400-1799 15% = 292 73 49 1800-2199 8 % = 156 91 14 E =1950 E 872

The table shows, that the original number of inhabitants in the minor localities has been reduced from 1950 (19,5%) to 872 (8,72%).

5.3.1.4 Summary of the Addition to Purchasing Power by the Population of the Hinterland

If the reduced values of the population of the hinterlands and the popu­ lation of the localities are aggregated, the result will be 1990+872 = 2862 (28,62%). But this sum s till has to be reduced because of lower income levels as follows from the argument on page 135 point 2.

Data on income variations have been taken from a study of local variations and changes of the income of the population in a number of G-communes in Västerbotten J 5^In this study, i t is obvious that the index of the average income varies between 72 and 108, distributed over classes of population density. I f the grouping of the sizes of localities used above, are put proportionally into this schedule, the aggregated result would be that the population in G-areas have a 30% lower income (and, thereby, purchasing power) than the population in strategic localities. The income of the popu­ lation in minor places would be 15% lower on average. A further reduction must therefore be made as shown in the table below. Table 5:9 Reduction For a Lower Capacity to Consume.

Purchasing Power Reduction Factor Purchasing Power Before Reduction After Reduction In G-areas 1990 0,70 1393 In Localities 872 0,85 741 z 2134

In this way the purchasing power, e .g ., the number of inhabitants in the hinterland, has been reduced to a value which corresponds to a popu­ lation of 2134 (21 ,34%).

Point 3, reluctance to travel can be schematized in the following way: In 1965, the distance between central places with more than 2200 inhabi­ tants was 44 km, as measured in a straight line using a conventional con­ stant for lengthening straight-line distances to road distances, this would correspond to 60 km.

In studies within the G-research project, carried out simultaneously by Erson (1969), i t has been shown that a short-distance commuting to work within the research area does not indicate any particular sensitivity to distance up to distances of approx. 20 km. Above this, the 'willingness' to commute diminishes substantially and above 30 km this 'willingness' is very weak. I f we consider commuting frequency to be a measure of reluc­ tance to travel, it would imply that 2/3 of the population of the hinter­ land, i.e ., those living within a radius of 20 km, should not, in principi be reduced by any distance decay, but that the remaining third, the popu­ lation in the interval 20-30 km, should be reduced by half. What this means, is illustrated schematically by figure 5:7. 143

Figure 5:7 Schematic Illustration of Reluctance to Travel.

Population in Population in Locality A Locality B

60 km Shaded Area Denotes Reduction Due to Travel Reluctance

It has been shown above how the number of inhabitants of the hinterland has been reduced to 2134 (21,34% of the total population). 2/3 of this value remain unreduced, whereas the remaining third must be reduced by 50%, as follows from the discussion above. The total w ill therefore be 1422+355 = 1777 (17,7%), i.e ., around 36% of the proportion of the popu­ lation of the strategic locality.

The fourth point, as argued on page 135, is the leakage to superior centres. We lack data to show the extension of this additional drain on purchasing power, but i t is obvious that the value of the contribution to purchasing power by the population of the hinterland must be adjusted downwards even further. The calculations have been based on the assumption that 100% of the purchasing power that has been directed towards locally available sup­ plies, w ill be directed towards the strategic locality and subcentres with­ in the hinterland. This suggests an obviously unrealistic description of the situation in the areas mainly referred to in the discussion of strategic localities, i.e ., the sparsely populated inland. Traditionally, people in 144 these areas often travel long distances to do their shopping in the de­ partment stores of the county centres and other major centres. The studies on the commune of Vindeln reported above, suggest a leakage of 10% calcu­ lated over the whole commune, which implies a lower figure for the popu­ lation of the hinterland, when taking into consideration the poorer availa­ b ility of transportation and lower purchasing p ow er.^

In previously published studies, a standard value of 30% has been used as an approximation of the addition to purchasing power from the h in te rla n d .^ There are thus no detailed data on the leakage to superior centres, but it seems reasonable to make a rough estimate that is so low that the previously used value for the proportion of the threshold value of the hinterland popu­ lation can remain. In this way, the material presented in this thesis can be related to the discussion in the previous studies referred to concerning the changes in the basis of purchasing power.

5.3.2 CHANGES IN T H E TH R E SH O LD VA LU E THROUGH TIME

One conclusion drawn from this discussion is that a strategic locality should have its population figure increased by 30% to correspond to the real threshold value of its service establishments. If we accept 2200 in­ habitants as a minimum size, this will imply that the threshold population will amount to 2860 people.

Many of the localities that we are interested in are however centres of G-areas that have been strongly affected by depopulation. Between 1960 and 1965, for example, the population of localities with less than 2200 in­ habitants, and in G-areas within the research area, fe ll by 14,5%, i.e ., approx. 3% per year.

In an extreme situation this means that certain strategic localities may have to allow for an almost negligible addition to purchasing power from the hinterland. As a result, a strategic locality in such areas ought to have a population that is not lower than the threshold value, i.e . 2860 people. Under present conditions, the calculations above suggest that, such 145

a place would have an average marginal contribution of 30%, i.e . 860 people from its hinterland.

The structural changes in the service sector must be added to what has been mentioned above. In the county report of Norrbotten, BD-80, a table based on estimates prepared by the trade and professional organizations, shows the basic essentials for a 'rational' unit for the years 1965 and 1980.^ T h e figures given referred to the entire country. The sum of the total basic requirements at these two points in time shows an increase of basic requirements of 43% over this period, which corresponds to an approxi mate annual increase of 3%.

In figure 5:8, the rate of depopulation and the necessary increase in pur­ chasing power have been related to the population figures discussed above.

If the starting-point is a central place with a population of 2860 people, it will have a contribution from the hinterland corresponding to 660 people. The strategic locality will thus have an overcapacity in relation to the assumed collection of service supplies that is illustrated in figure 5:8 by the distance between a and 3 on the population axis.

From the point a there is a curve

cline in the population of the hinterland is represented by the curve c.

Starting at point 3 the curve b^ represents the requirements of a 3% increase in purchasing power, with the threshold value of 2860 people as a point of departure. The over-capacity that a strategic locality with 2860 inhabitants would have at the beginning of the period w ill gradually disappear, and af­ ter seven years there will be a basis deficiency. 146

Figure 5:8 Diagram of Shortfall in Purchasing Power Over Time.

Pop. 5 000

4 000

3000

2 000

1 000 900 800 700 600 5 00

3 00

200

1 00 Time

The example is, naturally, highly hypothetical, but it shows that a central place with 2200 inhabitants (in extreme cases even 2860 inhabi­ tants) may end up in a situation when the basis of purchasing power is 147 no longer sufficient for a central place to be able to maintain what in the sociological study of service preferences was defined as the aggre­ gate of service supplies that is available in a central place with a 'very good' service.

On the basis of the discussion above, one can distinguish two sizes of cen­ tral places of interest in theory: on the one hand, those central places that are in the size interval 2200-3000, and those with more than 3000 in­ habitants, on the other. The lower size represents central places, which had at the time of the survey populations sufficient to ju stify the pro­ vision of services, but where various circumstances may take the basis of purchasing power insufficient within the reasonably near future. The higher size represents the central places that would, most likely, be able to main­ tain their supply of services, even i f the hinterland were to become comple­ tely depopulated.

A map showing all places with a population over 2200 in the research area is in the appendix, figure 8:3. 148

Notes to chapter 5

1) Hermansen (1969). 2) Bylund (1972) p 59. 3) SOU 1969:49, p 9. 4) Kungl Maj:ts prop, nr 75:1970. 5) See Glesbygdsutredningen's main report, SOU 1972:56. 6) Arbetsmarknadsstyrelsen (1960) p 55 f. 7) Naturally schools of different kinds also belong to a strategic locality of this kind, but for various reasons the schools were dealt with elsewhere in the Äström investigation. 8) The material has been taken from FoB-65,the classified telephone directory of 1967 and from accounts from AMS, from the National Social Insurance Service, The Swedish Dental Federation, The National Social Welfare Board, The Research Institute of Commerce and from ac­ counts from the separate County Councils. 9) Since the study was made (in 1968), however, the labour exchange service has been centralized, though not to such an extent that the conclusions of the existence on a strategic locality level would no longer be valid. 10) Since the study was carried out changes have also occurred in this fie ld . The mergers of communes have resulted in several former com­ mune centres no longer being the major centre of the commune. In most cases, important functions, such as social welfare offices, etc. have branch offices in the former major centres. 11) See also Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 2, SOU 1970:14, bilaga 2 and Vanberg (1972). 12) Examples of research closely connected to these problems are Steiglbauer (1967): Central places at the lowest level in Austria, Johnston (1966): Central places and settlement patterns, and Boustedt (I960): Die Cen­ tralen Orte und ihren Einflussbereiche. 13) See also Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 24, section I I I . 14) Ibid. 15) Westerlund and Norberg (1971) p 56. 16) See also Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 24, concerning the total leakage. A discussion is also carried out in Nordmark and Nordstrom (1972). 17) Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 2 and SOU 1970:14. 18) Länsstyrelsen i Norrbottens län (1968). 149 6 On Planning in Sparsely Populated Areas

In this chapter, methods of planning the supply of services in G-areas will be discussed on the bases of what has previously been demonstrated. The sector I have chosen is that of health services. It represents a clas­ sical G-problem and i t is concerned not only with distances to medical care institutions, but also with the over-representati on of the older age group in the G-areas. In this respect the situation is rapidly deteriorating in some G-communes. As has been shown above, there is a direct, linear corre­ lation between depopulation and increased median age.

The crucial problems in community care (outside formal institutions) may be summarised as follows: The authorities, responsible for health services say, that they are in favour of an increase in the resources devoted to out-patient care and extra-institutional forms of care, in co-operation with adjoining sectors such as the social welfare care and educational systems.^But, at the same time, the expansion in expenditure on health services indicates, that the advantages of large scale operation should be exploited, to a reasonable extent.

This chapter starts with a theoretical discussion of planning norms. It then examines out-patient care in a commune in one of the counties of the research area, the commune of Vindeln in the county of Västerbotten.

6.1 Theoretical Aspects

As has been mentioned above it is of course labour market issues which are pre-eminent among the problems of the G-areas. This is a question of purely economic aspects, but also of access to meaningful jobs. Direct transfer payments and casual re lie f work are insufficient to stabilize the develop­ ment of the population in the long run. Against this background one can naturally ask i f there is any point in examining the service aspects in de­ t a il. Would we not get a decent supply of services as a bonus for the people living in outlying settlements, i f the labour market problems could be solved? In my opinion, the answer to the question is no. The trend within the service 150 sector is towards bigger units and greater demands on bases. As is ap­ parent from chapters 4 and 5, the broad variety of service establishments that generally exists in the major centres in G-areas, has had its pur­ chasing power base undermined by the thinning out of the population in the trading areas. In addition, the number of general stores and other small shops in G-communes has fallen substantially in the 195(Ts and 6 CTs. Even i f the problems of transportation to the centre of the commune can be solved, the problems of neighbourhood services remain.

The argument concerning these and related problems has been, and s till is, intensive. In chapter 2 I have given a survey of the most important govern­ ment reports since the 1940's which refer to regional policies. The survey showed how the aims of the governmental policies for G-areas have gradually become more and more explicitly regionally-oriented, and the stress has shif­ ted towards regional support centres, or strategic localities, as they are referred to in this thesis. An examination of the threshold values for a relatively modest collection of services gives a strikingly coarse-meshed net of strategic localities as fig. 8:3 shows.

The regional policy action programme (prop. 1972:111), makes it clear that the Government does not want regional policy to create a form of free compe­ titio n between the communes about the objects of location policy, and that i t must be the role of the Government to promote, in various ways, locali­ sation in areas where the needs are greatest. As has been mentioned above, (chapter 5 ), four levels of localities were finally defined: Metropolitan Areas, Primary Centres, Regional Centres and Municipal Centres. One must put into the last category those central places whose functions are mainly confined to the inhabitants of the commune, its e lf. There is thus in general no reason for including other strategically situated places within a com­ mune (subcentres of the commune which fu lf il essential functions) in the national comprehensive plan, since this is based on the new communes as the lowest level of planning units. The exception is certain communes in the interior of the Aid Area that are large and sparsely populated. In these cases, special measures may be taken by co-operation between the County Ad­ ministrative Boards and the communes. The small service centres are not in­ cluded in the discussion of a supportive place structure. In a discussion paper from the Ministry for Social A ffairs,2Uhe prob­ lems of G-areas are defined as problems of service and communication in those areas where one cannot expect an 'automatic' re lie f of deficiencies as a result of the expansion of the economy or the location of industries. It states that there are two principal long-term factors which are deci­ sive for the location of the population: the supply of job opportunities, and the existence of service provisions. It is not sufficient for a place to be well provided in only one of these respects - both factors are equal­ ly important in securing the stab ility of the population in the place con­ cerned. It also states that experience shows that when enterprises con­ sider plant location they not only take into consideration the supply of labour, but they also regard it as at least equally important that there is a good supply of various shops, schools and other service establishments

In 1970, the Minister declared that one of the main roles of regional poli­ cy is to maintain and develop an effective service structure, and a good social environment in other respects in those places and areas which have good possibilities for development and good conditions for industrial ac­ tiv ity . It was also pointed out that the regional policies must include measures to create acceptable living conditions even in areas where a long­ term estimate suggests that contraction is inevitable.

This target has not been changed in the regional policy action programme of 1972.

Another problem discussed in this programme is that places, e.g. commune centres, at such a high level that the supply of services is satisfactory in essentials, also have d ifficu lties in attracting or holding younger employees, as the labour market in such places is insufficiently diversi­ fied. In the long run, this is likely to have the effect that many of the service centres referred to, i.e . at the fourth level, will have their bases undermined as well.

It is against this background that one must see the explicit governmental goal of ensuring that the distribution of public resources within each mer­ ged commune should be a communal matter. The merged communes are to be regi 152 nal building-bricks, and the distribution of resources within the com­ munes is a matter to be decided by the communes themselves. In a depopu­ lation situation, this means extremely d iffic u lt planning problems for the commune authorities.

In this thesis, I have considered it reasonable to assume that the regio­ nal policy may expect to have the effect, of solving the problems of em­ ployment in communes in G-areas, one way or another, even i f the regional population goals cannot be completely reached, thereby. (This assumption has been considered suitable as a starting-point for this study). It means assuming, that many people will continue to live in G-areas and small places, some as commuters working in industrial and service occupations, some con­ tinuing to work above all in the local economy of agriculture and forestry.

At the same time, i t must be firmly accepted that the supply of services is a subject worth as much attention as labour market issues. It is a basic principle of equality, that the gap in service and consumption standards between different parts of the country must not become unreasonably large. The service aspect of the problems of G-areas j_s important, not least be­ cause it has a dimension that must not be forgotten: as has been shown above, the population structure is such that certain groups requiring services are over-represented in relation to the national average. Consequently, i t must be right to plan in such a way that the population of G-areas has access to services and other welfare provisions without being exposed to excessive costs in money and time.

These principles have been adopted by the Glesbygdsutredningen. It main­ tains, that the social services must be adapted to local conditions, so that they can meet the demands of the people in the area that is to be ser­ ved. The starting-point ought to be the population's need for security and its claims for reasonable access to services, instead of the demand by the social services for "customer support". ^

As is evident from chapter 1, parts of this thesis deal with issues within the framework of ERLTs research project on production costs in different 153 4) regions. 'The terms of reference for this research project state that a survey of the prerequisites for different kinds of production is neces­ sary.

The conditions for the productivity of an individual in a contracting area may be assumed to d iffer essentially from the corresponding conditions in an expanding, urban area. Given that a good health situation of the population is a reasonable prerequisite for productivity, there may be grounds for examining if the regional structure has an injurious effect on any of the components of health, taken in a wide sense. The concept 'health' can then also be used as a scarcely controversial goal for the aspirations of society for the individual. According to WHO's definition of ‘health1, society strives for the welfare of individuals, physically, mentally and socially.

To people in Sweden, these ambitions have been fam iliar for a long time, in the form of normative standards for sectoral planning in the fir s t place; standards that have gradually been changed, through political decisions of a welfare character.

Corresponding sets of standards can also be traced behind the guiding prin­ ciples of overall planning. "Location policies should aim at promoting such a location of industries that the resources of capital and labour will be fu lly utilized and distributed so that rapid economic growth is promoted. Society, however, should also try to direct development into such courses that increasing welfare is distributed fa irly , and that people in different parts of the country are offered acceptable social and cultural services. Consequently, location policies should also be directed towards diminishing the d ifficu lties of adaptation that the individual has to face in a stage of development characterized by extensive structural rationalization with­ in the economy and the associated population migrations".^

Some consequences of these normative standards will be discussed in the fo l­ lowing section. 154

6.1.1 O N D EM A ND S A N D NEEDS

The supply of public services, and other services supported by society in any way, can be seen as expressions of the view of society about the needs of the individual in various respects. 'Need' is often used in a normative sense, i.e . the need in question is defined for the individual and not by the individual. In the course of time, society's level of aspirations for the quality of services has risen. These increased de­ mands for quality have often resulted in a sparser supply, since it has been essential to keep costs down.

While 'need' has sometimes been used as a normative concept, the term "demands" has been used to denote demands, derived from subjective indi­ vidual evaluations. The report of the Consumers' Commission (Konsument­ utredningens lägesrapport), emphasizes that in reality there are big d iffe ­ rences in the levels of demands between different people, and that these variations are related to an individual's previous experiences, which, in their turn, are related to their situation in life, i.e., in the first place, to the economic and social environment.^

As the aspirations of society to meet these demands have changed, the claims by individuals for services have risen, although perhaps not everywhere. It can be argued that empirical evidence suggests that the 'well-equipped' individual gradually raises his level of demands, whereas the opposite is true of the less 'well-equipped' individual. A socially and economically weak individual may end up in a vicious circle; in this context this may mean that the level of demand will gradually decline. A plausible assump­ tion is that this is not an uncommon situation in a sparsely populated area experiencing depopulation, where people may experience the withdrawal of different kinds of services as an indication that they are regarded as un­ comfortable burdens by the rest of society. A sub-report within the frame of the Glesbygdsutredningen partically confirms this assumption. "Households with relatively good service opportunities thus tend to make heavier demands on the standard of service than other households".^ 155

Such situations may have contributed to the fact that the situation in G- areas is, in some places, so obviously precarious. The demands that have been expressed have often referred to aspects of accessibility, rather than to qualitative factors, but it is the qualitative factors that have been listened to. The basic requirements of the resulting, qualitatively high level, services has been satisfied by a centralised provision. The problem has been well expressed by Eva Hamrin: "The thing is, that different parts of the administrative system admit the claims, and define the needs. The co-ordination between demand and supply does not work".^

91 A memorandum from ERU 'points out, that, to a greater extent than previously, future regional policies will be directed towards investment in social capi­ tal which allows a better use of time for the inhabitants of the region.

The use of time is naturally a function of accessibility.^The better that work place and service establishments are placed in relation to residence, the better are an individual's opportunities for spending his time in a way that is advantageous for him. But it is also true, that accessibility means different things to different age groups and different socio-economic groups. Accessibility has also an obviously regional aspect. A person who lives in a G-area in northern Sweden must get accustomed to certain physical distances that would seem rather long to a person living in southern Sweden or in a city. It would often probably be possible to distinguish what could be refer­ red to as regionally specific levels of expectation. In this context, it might be of interest to note that Glesbygdsutredningen maintained in a re­ port, that " it would have quite unacceptable consequences, if one tried to f i t the provisions of society in different parts of the country, to the varying levels of demand of the population."^

When planning public services at different levels, the planning authorities have generally laid the main stress on the direct cost of supply. The pat­ tern of public service today does not vary much from that of commercial ser­ vices. Standards and threshold values have been created, chiefly in a p o liti­ cal way, and these standards have determined the scale and location of the services. It has been a characteristic of these standards and threshold values 156 that they have not been the expressions of a spatial or regional view of the problems. Instead they have reflected fa irly clumsy attempts at trying to give a business-oriented touch to administrative activities. It is not hard to see why, since action could only take place within s tric tly defined sectors and economically restricted limits.

Thus, i t is often efficiency criteria that have guided the decisions on the scale and location of different provisions. In this way, an essential aspect is ignored, namely the costs (or other hardship) for the individual of consuming the service offered. This is not a question of the standard of services in the communes in G-areas being qualitatively deficient, on the contrary, as has been shown above, many of the centres in our G-areas are strikingly well-provided with regard to both commercial and public ser­ vices.

The administrative concept 'glesbygd' is rather uninteresting nowadays. One might also ask i f it is realistic to think of the range G-area - urban area, as a continuum. Within the research area, there are quite distinct place levels, or, such levels are likely to be established when the results of the governmental regional policy goals become clearer. In balanced regions, an even flig h t of steps of central place levels can often be distinguished, while one step or more are lacking in regions that have been too rapidly re­ structured.

A formalized comprehensive scheme for these places (priority areas, classi­ fied places) w ill probably have centralizing effects. The demand on the places chosen turns the distribution of the resources externally provided, into a disadvantage for the remaining places, even though i t is accepted, that some positive spin-off effects will be obtained by stabilizing, for example a commune centre.

In order to link in with the ERU studies referred to previously, (pi52)» I want to point out that a region in which good productivity conditions pre­ vail, has, among other things, the following characteristics : a) there are few discrepancies between individual demands and the need-based services pro­ 157 vided by the community, b) the damage to the individual's.resource budgets, i.e . both economic and time budgets is limited, c) a minimum of individuals find themselves in a situation where, as suggested in the discussion above, they may risk ending up in a downward spiral of expectations.

Disturbances in these conditions are likely to emerge in all types of regions, as much in areas with bottle-neck problems, as in areas with problems of de­ population and stagnation. As has been emphasized above, I shall focus atten­ tion in the following on the cardinal problem of the supply of services in G-areas, namely, deficiencies in accessibility and the consequent distur­ bances in the system, which, according to the planning standards discussed above, should bring physical, mental and social welfare to the individual.

A common problem of the supply of public services in G-areas is that their use often involves extensive inconveniences with transportation. Among the irritations in G-areas are the irregulatities in services caused by staff vacancies, and sometimes qualitative differences. This may mean restrictions in the freedom of choice, and, somebody might add that obsolete equipment and the lack of attractiveness of various positions cause a ‘biased1 selec­ tion of staff. There are no indications, however, that the latter two points are particularly relevant today, and they will doubtlessly become irrelevant in the future. What distinguishes the G-area situation from that in other parts of the country, as far as services are concerned, is inferior accessi­ b ility and limited possibilities of choice among the services available.

These limited possibilities of choice are chiefly caused by the basic re­ quirements laid down for different kinds of service, generally defined by means of threshold values. The indivisibles are not so important in densely populated areas, but they are a nuisance in G-areas. Among the complications are also the demands for qualitative improvements in equipment and so on, made by the staff of services, e.g. the d istrict medical officers'demands for better equipment in the branch surgeries. The conflict with the grant giving authorities which thus arises makes the reduction in branch activities a matter of time to the advantage of centralization. 158

The supply of services determined by 'need1 cannot, for political reasons, vary to any major extent in different parts of the country. Planning is normally done on the basis of threshold values, (xxxx people per d istrict medical officer, xx children per class or school). A shortfall in the local basis is compensated for by more or less satisfactory means of communication and by compensation for travel expenses. At the same time, the need standards generally make substitutes unacceptable. This implies a conflict situation: a substitute may very well correspond to a generally accepted demand level, but i t will not be permitted, because i t does not suit the normative need level. In a stable or expanding phase, these problems are not very pronoun­ ced. But in a phase of contraction, this is an extensive problem, which might be formulated as follows: People want forms of services that are not so far away. People get a high quality service that is very far away.

We have strict quality standards in this country, and nobody is likely to want to reduce them, since they are part of the concept of the welfare state. But the question is whether the points of contact between different service hierarchies could not be re-structured in such a way, that the population's demands for accessibility in G-areas can be met in a better way than is the case today. As has been mentioned above, the opinion that this will be achie­ ved as far as health services are concerned has already been expressed. One can, for example, see this in the targets, set for the health service plans of Västerbotten. In the same way, one can detect similar goals in the a t t i­ tudes towards cross-sectoral "chains" of services. (See for example the pub­ lication Integrerat Samhälle published by the National Board of Social Wel­ fare and Medical care .^Thoughts in that direction have also been expressed 13Ì in the report of Glesbygdsutredningen,"Hälso- och sjukvård i Glesbygder". J

The claims is made in "Integrerat samhälle", that "the role of regional planning is to analyse and test the ends and means for the individual's interaction, with others, with nature and with what man has created, and to transform the chosen ends and means into practically workable, operative concepts, that can lead to action. The yardstick for measuring results is man himself, both as an individual and as a social being. The way that society functions can, for example, be measured in relation to needs during the different phases of the life cycle". 159

This is also in accordance with one of the assumptions of the following discussion: The supply of services should be analysed and planned with an age grouping of consumers as a starting-point. One basic point to be stres­ sed is that people in certain phases of the life cycle are more dependent on public services than those in other phases. For example, up to the ages of 15-19, an individual is obviously dependent on the need-standardised services provided by society. One has to go to child welfare clinics, to schools and to many other institutions established for the benefit of young people. During the next phase, the 'productive' phase of the life cycle, most people are likely to be least dependent on institutional ser­ vices. But with increasing age a new phase starts, with a gradually in­ creasing dependence on health and care institutions. Poor access to d iffe ­ rent kinds of commercial services is a problem to individuals mainly in the middle phase, since this age group is the one most vulnerable to dis­ turbances in the time budget.

As was mentioned at the beginning of this chapter, the survey will be lim i­ ted to problems linked to out-patient health services. It is an important sector, not least because the use of out-patient medical care involves ex­ tensive transport work. In Västerbotten, for example, 2,2 annual visits per head in 1968, means approx. 42 million person km that year, or 180 km per head. The regional variations are great. In the commune of Sorsele, the transport work amounts to 445 km per inhabitant and year, in Vännäs to 110 km and at Holmsund to only 33 km.14^

Travel also involves heavy costs, which can be illustrated by a simple arith­ metical example. If the costs per km are set at 0,30 Sw.Cr., the costs of 42 million person kilometers will be 12,6 million Sw.Cr. The travelling time for 180 km may be estimated at roughly 3 hours. The value of the time that the passenger loses by the trip , could be set at 5,10 Sw.Cr. per head as a rough estimate for 1974. Calculated on these data, the time costs would be

3 X 5,10 X 233 500 = 3,6 million Sw.Cr. that year. Thus, if we disregard the costs of terminal time, waiting time in surgeries and other costs at­ tached to the trip , the costs of journey to out-patient medical services in Västerbotten totals at least 3,6 + 12,6 = 16,2 million Sw.Cr. a year. 160 6.1.2 THE CONCEPT OF ACCESSIBILITY

In the geographical literature, the concept 'accessibility' has been given a rather narrow definition. The population potential has been interpreted as a measure of accessibility for consumers, provided that the transport costs are linearly related to distance, and that all con­ sumers have equal purchasing power.^ Lindberg discussed a different con­ cept of accessibility, where the sum of the consumers- transport work to a service point defines accessibility from a welfare point of view.16)

In a less strict sense, accessibility to services of different kinds can be shown by some form of simple zoning: The number of inhabitants within a given distance zone round a certain service point can be one example of such zoning. Two examples of other methods are fixing an average distance, e.g ., within a commune to a service point, or fixing the number of services per spatial unit or per unit of inhabitants. The distance to the service con­ cerned can be combined with a measure of capacity. This has been done, for example, by Öberg, in order to estimate the regional variations in the aver­ age supply of certain complex services.1^)

In this study, accessibility has been defined firs tly as a measure in which weighted distances are combined to provide a classification of the situation. If the services within a sector are situated at different hierarchic levels, the picture becomes quite complicated. The construction of a measure of 'ac­ cessibility' w ill then be a question of combining the distances to several services, and, simultaneously, taking into consideration the weights of the services in relation to each other.

6.2 Planning on a Regional Level

To begin with, the planning of out-patient health services at a regional level w ill be discussed.

Report nr 19 of the Glesbygdsforskningen outlined a method for analysing the regional variations in accessibility to out-patient health services. The research area was the county council area of Västerbotten, and the year 161

concerned was 1968. The method was based on the combined distances from a series of demand points, (the population median point of the electoral wards), to the nearest service point for out-patient health service, struc­ tured at four different structural levels, (see tables 6:1 and 6:2 below). Furthermore, the distances were given weights calculated on the basis of studies of the composition of the flows and frequencies of patients in the Örnsköldsvik a re a ^ in the county of Västernorrland, and in the commune of Vilhelm ina^in the county of Västerbotten.

Some of the results of'the study can be summarised in two % distributions, as shown below.

If the patients spontaneously consulted the medical personel at the level responsible for treatment, the patients would have been distributed on levels as shown below:

Table 6:1 Distribution According to Level Responsible for Treatment.

Care Level Distribution of treatment

District nurse 26,7% District medical officer 58,2% General hospital 8,7% District General hospital 6,4%

If , instead, the patients were distributed according to the level firs t consulted, the picture would be somewhat different. The proportions going to General and D istrict General hospitals, respectively, would not change much, but there would be a substantial difference in the two lower levels. Table 6:2 shows, that a much higher proportion of patients fir s t contacts the district nurse than is the case in the distribution in table 6:1. It does not seem far-fetched to interpret this as meaning that the district nurse acts as a sort of "collection agency". 162

Table 6:2 Distribution According to Level of Treatment First Consulted.

Care Level Distribution of Primary Contacts

District nurse 38,7% D istrict medical officer 45,3% General hospital 7,6% District General hospital 8,4% Figure 6:1 Medical Care in Västerbotten 163 s a s■ « t> + 164

Figure 6:1 shows the availability of services at the time of the research project. The institutions for treatment are located above all in the main centres of the communes. In addition, there are branch surgeries, and oc­ casionally resident d is tric t nurses, in the inland communes.

On the premise that a hypothetical situation can form the basis for the analysis, a situation where the patients without exceptions were treated at the appropriate level, i.e . without further re fe rra l, and provided that there were no staff vacancies, a schematic picture of the accessibility to out-patient health services could be constructed by weighting the distances from each demand point to the nearest service point for each of the four trea ment levels defined above. In such a case, the % figures in table 6:1 would be used. The result would be a weighted measure of distance for each point of measurement, in previous publications called 'frequency weighted average distance'.

A map showing the result of these calculations is given on page 165 . It has been constructed by drawing isaritms for five classes, arb itrarily selected, with class limits of 10, 25 and 60 km average distance.

The map shows clearly how significantly the coastal zone differs from the inner parts of the county. Within this zone, only very limited areas around X ) major commune centres reach a corresponding standard of accessibility. '

The score for Skellefteå may serve as an example of the measure of weigh­ ted distance used. The score there is less than 10 km, according to the map. According to the table above, only 6 patients out of 100 go to Umeå, where the d istrict general hospital is situated. This means, that the average distance to Umeå for these patients is fixed at — , since the distance between Skellefteå and Umeå is 140 km. The distance to other levels of treatment situated in Skellefteå is fixed, by definition at 1 kr and the average distance to other levels of treatment is consequently

" l ‘0(T * The frecluenC‘V weighted average distance is accordingly - Ÿqq~" + = 9,3 km. For further information, see Glesbygdsforskningen, repor nr 19, Sjukvård i glesbygd. Figure 6:2 Frequency Adjusted Average Distance to Out P atient Medical Care in Västerbotten. .< HI .< 165 166

What the map therefore shows is the accessibility in a hypothetical situa­ tion where the premise is th at patients know which level of treatment is appropriate in any s itu a tio n . The s itu a tio n is thus something of a planner's dream of delight: no disturbing regional variations in the population struc­ ture, and optimal behaviour by the population.

Of course, these values of weighted distances are an improvement compared with a situation where planning is based only on raw population data and on the locations of the service points. But the situation is s till obviously unrealistic. Both the age structure of the population and the actual travel pattern must be taken into account, in order to get more accurate spatial re la tio n s h ip . In the county o f Västerbotten, the age group 0-19 comprises 30,1% of the population (in 1968), whereas i t consumed only 26,3% o f the o u t-p atien t health services. On the other hand, the age group 65+ was 12,5% of the total population, but consumed 26,32% of the total volume of out­ patient health services. On the basis of the distribution in the tables 6:1 and 6:2 and the so called consumer units,20^the scores of the total transport work to utilise out-patient health services can be calculated.

A measure denoting travel volume per time u nit can also be used as a measure of accessibility, and to facilitate the construction of a map according to the same principles as the previous one, the values of the total transport work for journeys to out-patient health services care have been transformed into volume per head and per electoral ward. Thus, the score of accessibility for each demand point (ward) is a score of the annual transport work of the average inhabitant. Two wards with identical distances to the different treat­ ment supply points will thus have their accessibility classed in different 21 ) ways, i f the population structure varies between the wards. 1

Following this procedure, the scores of the frequency weighted average di­ stance described, and the actual transport volume, were converted into a scale from 1 to 100, thereby fa c ilita tin g d ire c t comparisons between the results of the two methods of measurement.

Figure 6:3 shows the distribution of the wards after classification by the two methods. 167

Figure 6:3 Distribution of Wards After Classification by a) Frequency Adjusted Average Distance and b) Transport Volume.

Number o f Number o f wards wards

40

Transformed accessibility scores

There are clearly large variations. The average score has risen from 27,2 units according to the frequency weighted average distance, to 29 according to the estimates of transport work. There are also grounds for assuming, that the variations are regional. A calculation of the correlation between the two scores gives r= +0,86 within the merged commune ot Robertsfors. In the merged commune of Asele, where there has been a more rapid rate of de­ population in the 1960's, r= +0,44.

The change fo r each ward has been calculated by estim ating the ra tio between the transformed value of frequency weighted average distance and the value of the transport work per head, similarly transformed. The result of the calculations is shown in figure 6:4. Ratio values below 1,0 imply a deterio­ ration by comparison with the frequency weighted average distance, and values over 1,0 imply an improvement. 168

Figure 6:4 Diagram Showing the Ratio Between Transformed Scores of FrequencyAdjusted Average Distance and Transport Volume.

uofkNumber of wards

0.6 < 0,6 Ratio

The map on the following page shows, the wards which according to calcu­ lations above have received higher, unchanged or lower location scores. Figure 6:5 Ratio Between Transformed Scores of Frequency Adjusted Average Distance and Transport Volume. 169 170

The wards with unchanged or improved scores are found p r in c ip ia lly around Umeå. In addition to Umeå and Vännäs, örträsk is the only commune centre ward with an unchanged or improved location score. Such connected areas are also found inland, in the communes of Fredrika, Vilhelmina, Storuman and Sorsele.

Apart from these, the overall impression is one of reduced location scores in commune centre wards and adjoining wards. Reduced scores of 4-6 location units are common. Thus, the ward of Vilhelmina has a reduction of 3 units As eie 4 " Norsjö 3 " S k e llefteå 3 " Dorotea 5 " Tärnaby 6 11

25% of the population of the wards of Lövliden in the commune of Vilhel­ mina are over 64 years old. The change in location score is here 10 units.

An analysis of the number of inhabitants in each group of those wards which received changed scores as shown in the histogram (figure 6:4) above, shows the following:

In wards with the ra tio 0,6 or less: 3 097 inhabitants

II h h h H h h 0,7 h 34 731 h h h h h II h 54 039 h 139 789 0,8 Ì II h h h h h h 0,9 ii 47 922 1 h h h h II » h J H 1,0 74 723

h h h h h II h 1,1 11 134

h h h h h II h h 1,2 4 542 ' 18 641 f 93 377 h h H h H 1,3 or more 2 948

We have thus compared two situations. In the firs t one the accessibility score depends on two conditions, a) that the consumers of treatment have complete knowledge of which level of treatment is responsible in every 171 situation, b) that, to be fa ir, the age distribution is homogenous through­ out the area.

In the second situation, the measure of accessibility is based on more realistic conditions. The consumers often call at the 'wrong' level and have to be referred further, and the regional variations in age struc­ ture - and thereby in the consumption of treatment - are considerable. It must be said that this is s till a crude measure, since it does not take into account th at d iffe re n t age groups have d iffe re n t patterns of con­ s u lta tio n , but i t only allows fo r gross volumes of treatm ent. For example, later in this section, it will be shown that old people in outlying wards consult their district nurse to a much greater extent than other groups do. Nevertheless, th is method of measurement is an improvement in comparison with previous ones. As has been shown, 60% of the population of the county will have their access to out-patient treatment over-estimated, if age specific volumes of treatment and actual travel patterns are not allowed for in the analysis. Thus, when these variables have been added, the pic­ ture changes in several respects.

What has been said above is illu s tra te d in the two follow ing maps. They show accessibility zones, and have been calculated on the basis of the two measures of location, after the scores have been transformed. They are di­ rectly comparable, and the isaritms have been constructed according to the same classification. Figure 6:6 Frequency Adjusted Average Di stance to Out Patient Health

Location score

Figure 6:7 Transport Volume Per Head to Out Patient Health Care.

Location score

: 16-30 173 6.3 Planning on a Commune Level

Even though the average figures of transport work give the a c c e s s ib ility calculations a more differentiated result than do distances merely given standard weights, the method does not give sufficient information to per­ mit planning that deliberately accepts accessibility as an important goal to be achieved. As will be shown in the following, local variations in de­ mand levels produce considerable differences in the consumption of tr e a t­ ment and the variations are dependent both on the distance to the treat­ ment services and on the ages of the patients. In order to take such fac­ tors into consideration, the method of weighting has been formalized into a model where the imput is population data arranged by age distribution 2 and coordinates, (in this case, on a 1 km level) weighting scores, that, fo r example as in th is case, can be derived from studies of local consump­ tion patterns, and the site and type of the services. The output is the totals of transport work and the number of individuals in different clas­ ses of accessibility to services, as well as scores of accessibility for each age group, scores, that can be converted into maps via the computer p lo tte r. In th is way, a d ire c t comparison between transport work and ac- 22 ) cessibility can be obtained. ;If the planner wants to work out the cost of transp o rtatio n, he has accurate data on the price of improvements in accessibility in each single case. This model therefore corresponds to the view expressed above, namely, th a t individual access to services should be the focus of planning in G-areas.

A detailed study of a minor area, the commune of Vindeln in the county of Västerbotten follows, (see fig. 6:8). There are a number of reasons for th is choice. The commune represents an interm ediate position , between the coast and the mountains. The distance to Umeå from the commune centre is 55 km, which permits the p o s s ib ility of commuting, and fo r this reason the commune has been included among the coastal communes in the previous comparisons, (see table 4 :4 ).

The north-western parts of the commune, Amsele, are definitely of an in­ land character. The rate of depopulation has been high, a 23 % decrease in 174

the to ta l population between 1960 and 70, and a simultaneous increase in the median age from 34 to 42 years. In 1970, the to ta l population was approx. 7600, i.e ., a typical figure for this type of commune in spar­ sely populated areas. The system of central places is well developed on different hierachical levels, and the commune centre clearly dominates. Furthermore, there are a few major service centres and a number of small nodes. The proportion of scattered settlements corresponds well with an 'average commune' in a G-area in northern Sweden. The major centres are situated along the river valleys, in accordance with the general pattern in Norrland. The commune centre is strikingly well-equipped with both commercial and in s titu tio n a l services. But i t is feared th at the pur­ chasing power may not justify the level of services, which could lead to their being withdrawn. The labour market shows a negative picture - high unemployment and in d u s tria l premises th at have stood vacant fo r some time. In the ward containing the commune centre, the older age groups are s till underrepresented. Wards with a high proportion of elderly people are situa­ ted at the periphery and away from the river valleys.

6.3.1 THE OUT-PATIENT HEALTH SERVICES IN A G- AREA. DATA FROM THE COMMUNE OF VINDELN IN THE COUNTY OF VÄSTERBOTTEN.

During the week 24th-30th of April, 1972, a study of the out-patient health services in the commune of Vindeln was carried out within the ambit of the G-research project. The studie embraced all forms of out-patient health ser­ vice.23^At the time of the survey, the following services were provided in the commune: A Health Centre at Vindeln, providing a medical surgery (3 doc­ tors), district nurse and district nursing and maternity clinics (3 nurses); 24 hour casualty services at the cottage hospital at Vindeln (19 beds), and branch surgeries at the clinic for chronic treatment at Häl Inas and at Amsele. A d is tr ic t nurse is resident in Amsele, where the midwife from Vindeln has also a branch c lin ic . There were no s ta ff vacancies, at the time of the sur­ vey and the staff situation had been satisfactory for a long time. The state of the health services in the commune could be considered to be good by com­ parison with many other communes in the G-areas. 175

Figure 6:8 The Commune of Vindeln.

M an jau r

Bran nforsliden [M årdsele

lolm träsk IM altträsk tSäysjön Petisträsk

Lån g träs k ►Arvnäs »Amsel

A rv lu n d

Krok - »Broknäs Ekorrseìè^Urask [Sjöbotten . Yttersjöm Mårtsbränna S te n trä s k TDegernäs ImsjÖlideri* ►Lil Is eie

y Z v ^ v sele ^ Kamsjön

iranölund »Hällnas

'i dstrands A i näs Strandåker

Granö [Löv liden* A n äset( [ryckeltjäm e g s - iMesele näset 'indeln O tto n trä s k fr o IL berget

Rödålu JDverrödå

itro m sjö - »Ski vsjö

ITvärålun d R a m s ele . iRambfi

V y Boundary between th e Åmsele and V in d e ln - Hällnäs area. •Boundary between close zone and remote zone. 10 2 0 km i— — t ' Road ; R iv e r *R ailw ay 176

The result of the study can be summarised in the following table. The data has been allocated to a close and a remote zone; the boundary being set at a distance of 10 km radius from each service point» respectively.

Table 6:3 Population Consulting Health Services in a Close and a Demote zone» Broken bown by Age and Level of Treatment.

The Vindeln - Häll näs - area Total Population: 6366 (Close zone: 3083, Remote zone: : 3283), 315 patients.

Type of Care Age and popu­ The number of con- latio n tacts in Close zone Remote zone V is its to Doctor 0-19, in the 21 16 Children's health care close zone:826 9 4 D is tric t nurse o ffic e remote zone:970 - _ District nurse. Home visits. 3 10 V is its to Doctor 20-64 69 59 Maternity care close zone:1740 6 4 D is tr ic t nurse o ffic e remote zone:1740 3 10 District nurse. Home visits. - 4 Midwife's office 13 15 Midwife. Home visits. 2 2 Visits to Doctor 65+ 17 31 D is tric t nurse o ffic e close zone:517 2 2 District nurse. Home visits. remote zone:573 5 8

The Âmsele - area Total Population: 1166 (Close zone: 524, Remote zone: 642), 54 patients.

Type of Care Age and popu­ The number of con- latio n tacts in Close zone Remote zone V is its to Doctor 0-19, in the _ 1 Children's health care close zone:150 - - D is tric t nurse o ffic e remote zone:229 6 - District nurse. Home visits. 1 1 V isits to Doctor 20-64 5 1 Maternity care close zone:270 - - D is tric t nurse o ffic e remote zone:318 13 - District nurse. Home visits. 1 - Midwife's office 2 1 Midwife. Home visits. - - V isits to Doctor 65+ 6 1 D is tric t nurse o ffic e cTöse zone:104 3 ■- District nurse. Home visits. remote zone:95 - 12

Source: Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 25: Forslin-Persson: Patientströmmar och vårdkonsumtion i Vindelns kommun. 177

In relative terms, the scores in table 6:3 suggest the following, among other things: The proportion of patients is somewhat higher in the Vindeln- Hällnäs area than in the Âmsele area. The sources of treatment sought are very different in the two areas. 67% of the consultations in the Vindeln- Hällnäs area took place with a doctor, and 33% with the district nurse. At Âmsele, the situation was the opposite: 26% with a doctor and 74% with the district nurse.

If the findings are distributed by distance zones and age groups, the pic­ ture becomes less of a unity. Treatment by the district nurse is sought less by the age group 0-19 and 20-64, in the remote zone in the Âmsele area. On the other hand, the district nurse was consulted to a considerably grea­ te r extent by the oldest age group in the remote zone. The proportion of consultations with a doctor decreased in the remote zone, even among the oldest age group.

In the Vindeln-Hällnäs area, treatment by the district nurse does not vary so much according to the zone, although the intermediate age groups had a somewhat higher rate of consultation. Consultations with a doctor were somewhat less frequent for those aged 0-19 and 20-64 in the remote zone. On the other hand, in the remote zone the proportion of patients in the oldest age group is conspicuously higher.

While 7,1% of the population on the close zone of Âmsele consulted a doc­ tor or a district nurse, the corresponding score in the remote zone was only 2,6%. In the Vindeln-Hällnäs area, the difference between the zones was negligible: 4,9 and 5,0% respectively.

Thus, in the remote zone in the Âmsele area, there is a lower to ta l usage of services than there is in the Vindeln-Hällnäs area. The district nurse plays an important role, especially for the oldest age group. A higher pro­ portion of e ld e rly people are treated by doctors in the remote zone round Vindeln-Hällnäs.

The picture of the usage of health service in the commune of Vindeln corre­ sponds well with the general conception of the variations in the usage of 178 services. In more well-defined rural areas, the usage is lower, and patients tend to go to the nearest source of treatment, in spite of the fact that the journey to the doctor's surgery does not normally involve any direct expenses. This applies especially to the oldest section of the population.24^

6.3.2 A CCESSIBILITY A N D TRANSPORT W ORK

The material in table 6:3 has been the basis for further calculations. As was also the case in the survey mentioned above, the commune was divided into two areas: a) the Amsele area and b) the Vindeln-Hällnäs area. The transport volume, shown for in table 6:6, in figures 6:9 and 6:10 and pages 200-205 in appendix, is based on the factor values in table 6:4 below, af­ ter correction by the conventional distance lengthening constant, 1,35. In the first place, the values form the basis for the calculations of the to­ tal annual transport volume of journeys to out-patient health services.

Table 6:4 Factor Scores fo r the Calculation of Transport Work.

Age Group Factor scores fo r Doctor District nurse The Amsele Area 0-19 0,13 1,09 20-64 0,53 1,50 65+ 1,82 3,91

The Vindeln-Hällnäs area 0-19 1,07 0,75 20-64 1,91 0,89 65+ 2,28 0,81

The following example shows, how the fa c to r scores have been calculated. I t refers to consultations with doctors by the age group 20-64. During the period, 65+69 such consultations were made. The number of inhabitants in th is age group in the close and the remote zones amounted to 3480. For each individual, this makes a total of ^4'gQ consultations per week, (see 179

table 6:3 on page 176 ), and ^^69+69) = 1>gl per year_ This figure de_

notes the amount of single journeys per head. I f th is figu re were doubled, the to ta l annual journeys per head would be obtained. I t should be pointed out that the calculations refer to journeys to sources of treatment within the commune only.

The measure of accessibility is based on weight scores, and these have been constructed by transforming the factor values in table 6:4, in such a way th at the sum fo r each age group is = 100. The weight scores are shown in the table below.

Table 6:5 Weight Scores fo r the Estimation of A c c e s s ib ility .

Area Age Group Weight Scores fo r Doctor District nurse Total Amsele 0-19 11 89 100 20-64 26 74 100 65+ 31 69 100

Vindeln 0-19 58 42 100 20-64 68 32 100 65+ 73 27 100

For these purposes, the area has been divided into two parts only, the Amsele area, and the Vindeln-Hällnäs area. Technically, it is quite pos­ sible to make further divisions and thereby derive weight scores from smaller sections. It was considered inappropriate to do so in this case, however, since the survey period was only one week, and the empirical data would the ris k becoming too shallow, i f s p lit any fu rth e r.

The assumed or actual sources of treatment selected, were based on the situation prevailing at the end of 1972, i.e. unchanged in relation to the survey period in April of the same year. The health service plan for the county, envisages the establishment of one additional post of district nurse in the commune, whereas the number of doctors w ill remain unchanged.^The places of Mårdsele, Granö and Tvärålund have been selected as possible com­ plementary service locations. The following alternative combinations of ser­ vices have been studied: 180

1. The same service as at the time of the survey, referred to, i.e. ser- vises at Vindeln, Hällnäs and Âmsele. 2. An additional district nurse stationed in a) Mårdsele b) Granö c) Tvärålund 3. All distrikt nurses located in the Health Centre with three doctors at Vindeln. 4. District nurses at Vindeln, Granö and Tvärålund.

In all the alternatives the doctors" branch surgeries at Âmsele and Hällnäs remain unchanged.

The results are shown in the following tables and diagrams. For each combi­ nation of services, the accessibility by the three different age groups, and transport costs, distributed by different alternatives of time consump­ tion, are presented. For want of space, certain tables have been transferred to the appendix (pages 200-205). The tables and diagrams in the main te x t refer only to the first combination of services described in points 1-4 above. 181

Table 6:6 Accessibility and Transport Work. An Analysis of the Âmsele Area.

Supply: Doctor's surgery at Vindeln. Doctor's branch-surgery at Häl 1 näs and Âmsele. D is tric t nurse at Vindeln and Åsele.

Accessibility ) Age Group Low scores denote a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ abs. cum. r e i . abs. cum. r e i . abs. cum. r e i . 0-5 122 122 40,1 231 231 36,4 88 88 43,1 5-10 34 156 11,1 60 291 9,4 16 104 7,8 10-15 17 173 5,5 40 331 6,3 10 114 4,4 15-20 47 220 15,4 126 457 19,8 35 149 17,1 20-25 62 282 20,3 129 586 20,3 32 181 15,6 25-30 22 304 7,2 46 632 9,2 20 201 9,8 30-35 0 304 0 2 634 0,3 4 205 1,9 Upper and Qn= 0, ,69 Qi= 0,84 Qi= 0,62 lower quarti le: (4=20,,17 (^=20,26 (^=20,20 The population in the three most favourable classes of accessibility: 173 331 114

Age Group Measurements of Transportation Person k ilo ­ Person k ilo - Transport Time costc^ Transport meter per year meter per costbjper per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year/Return/ /Return/ cost per /Return/ year I 1473 I 4046 0-19 7797 25,64 2573 I I 987 I I 3560 I I I 927 I I I 3500 I 5529 I 15191 20-64 29279 46,18 9662 I I 3686 I I 13348 I I I 2746 I I I 12408 I 4837 I 13248 65+ 25488 124,33 8411 I I 3225 I I 11636 I I I 2418 I I I 10829

a) Accessibility, in this way based on the weight scores in table 6:5, is calcu­ lated on the following pattern: Suppose that a person from each age group lives in one spatial unit. The distance to the nearest district nurse, as well as to a doctor, is 20 km. Then the weighted distance will be 20 km. If a dis­ trict nurse is stationed at a distance of 3 km from the square, accessibility fo r the person aged 0-19 w ill be (3 x 89 + 20 x 11 ) „ n ,,m 100 " * Similarly, accessibility for a person aged 20-64 will be 7,4 km, and for the person in the oldest age group 8,3 km. b) Transport costs are calculated on the basis of a cost 0,33 Sw.Cr. per km. c) For reasons of s im p lic ity , the same time costs fo r the d iffe re n t age groups have been used, which means that the costs for the youngest and the oldest groups may be somewhat overestimated. See also Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 24, p 64 and 161. The Roman numerals re fe r to the a lte rn a tiv e tra v e llin g speeds 30 km/hour ( I ) , 45 km/hour ( I I ) and 60 km/hour ( I I I ) . 182

In figures 6:9 and 6:10, below, the scores in table 6:6 and tables 8:la-f in appendix have been transformed into diagrams, where a c c e s s ib ility is shown in the form of p ro file s fo r each age group and the cost a lte rn a ­ tives in the form of bar graphs. The reader should note that the following comments are based mainly on the material in the tables. 183

Figure 6:9 Regional Consequences in the Amsele Area.

Profiles of Accessibility

Supply: Doctor in Vindeln. Branch Surgery in Häl Inäs and Transport cost Amsele. D is tric t Nurse in Vindeln and Amsele. per age group cum % and year. of pop 90 f Age group r Alternatives / 0-19 I 20-64 { 65+ according to / 100 000^ table 6:6. 70 f

50

5 0 0 0 0 - ■

i i i " 1------1------1------_ u l_ 20 4 0 60 20 40 6 0 20 40 60 0-19 20-64 65+

Accessibility in weighted kilometer distance.

Supply reinforced with d is tric t nurse in Mårdsele.

/ 100 0 0 0 - / /

/ ^ 5 0 0 0 0 -

■ i i 1 1 - T ------ni III ill 20 40 60 20 40 60 20 4 0 60 0-19 20-64 65+

D is tric t nurse in Vindeln only

9 0 -

100 000- 70-

5 0 -

5 0 0 0 0 - 3 0 -

10-

20 4 0 60 20 40 60 20 60 0-19 20-64 65+ 184

Figure 6:10 Regional Consequences in the Vindeln Area.

Profiles of Accessibility Transport cost Supply: Doctor in Vindeln. Branch Surgery in Häl Inäs. per age group D is tric t nurse in Vindeln. and year. cum % 125000- of pop 90. Age group 0-19 20-64 65+ 10 0 000- 70-

50- 50000-

30-

60 60 0-19 20-64 65+

Supply reinforced with d is tr ic t nurse in Granö.

90- 100 0 0 0 - 70-

50- 50 000- 3 0-

20 40 60 20 40 60 20 4 60 0-19 20-64 65+ Reinforced supply in Tvärålund instead of Granö. 90- 100 000- 70-

50- 50 000- 30-

20 40 60 20 40 60 0-19 20-64 65+ Supply reinforced with d is tr ic t nurse both in Granö and X** / X^värålund. 90- 100 000 70-

50- 50 000

3 0-

60 60 60 0-19 20-64 65+ 185

6.3.3 COM M ENTS

The method of analysis used, has shown how the situation of the in­ habitants would change if the structure of services is altered. In the following, the results will be further elaborated.^

The Åmsele Area

In the original situation there is a district nurse at Amsele and doctors at the branch surgery. 173 aged 0-19, 331 aged 20-64 and 114 aged 65+ be­ long to the three most favourable classes of accessibility. Those 25% (Q3) who belong to the most unfavourable classes of accessibility live in areas with scores above 20,1 km weighted distance. If the Amsele area were rein­ forced by one nurse at Mårdsele, the number of people in the three most favoured classes would be increased by 36+79+20=135 people.

For the youngest age group, the situatio n would be improved fo r those 25% who have the most unfavourable situation, from 20,1 to 16,9, and for the oldest age group from 20,2 to 17,2. The transport work would be decreased by 8601 person km per year. In to ta l costs, th is corresponds to a decrease from 26 737 to 22 884 Sw.Cr., based on a tra v e llin g speed of 60 km/hour. If, instead, the post of the district nurse were abolished, the situation would be d ra s tic a lly worsened. The class with the most favourable scores of accessibility would have a lower lim it of 33 km weighted distance, and those 25% who have the le a s t favourable scores would have values above 44,0. The corresponding score fo r the youngest age group would be 52,5. A ll the in ­ habitants of the area would have a worsened s itu a tio n . The annual transport work would amount to 248 648 per head, which would mean an increase of 186 084 person km annually compared with the o rig in al s itu a tio n . In costs, th is would imply an increase of 78 000 Sw.Cr. (at 60 km/hour).

The Vindeln-Hällnäs Area

In the o rig in al s itu a tio n , 3280 people belong to any of the three most favoured classes of accessibility. Those 25% who have the least favourable 186

Situation have scores above 21,8, 21,0 and 20,4 km, weighted distance for each age group, respectively. The transport work amounts to 405 134 person km annually, which corresponds to values between 171 986 and 210 282 Sw.Cr., depending on the travelling speed used for the calcu­ la tio n .

If the service is increased by an additional nurse at Granö, the number of people in the most favoured classes w ill increase by 261. The situation of the least favoured 25% will be considerably improved: from an accessi­ b ility score of approx. 21 to approx. 17 km, weighted distance. The tran­ sport work w ill be decreased by 38 904 person km per year, (16 000 Sw.Cr. at a travelling speed of 60 km/hour).

If, instead, the additional service were stationed at Tvärålund, the number of people in the three most favoured classes would increase by 717. On the other hand, the lim it for the least favoured 25% would not be changed very much, other than for the oldest age group: from 20,4 to 19,4. The transport work would amount to 382 620 person km per year, a decrease of 22 514 per­ son km per year, compared with the original situation.

I f there is an additional reinforcement in the provision of nurses both at Tvärålund and Grandi the effect would be, that the number of people in the most favoured classes of accessibility would increase by 978 compared with the o rig inal s itu a tio n . The least favoured group would have a c c e s s ib ility scores from 15,6 instead of 21,8, weighted distance, previously. The tran­ sport work would decrease by 50 910 person km per year, which corresponds to a cost varying between 23 076 and 30 347 Sw.Cr. depending on the speed used.

In the maps below the a c c e s s ib ility scores fo r the oldest age group to some selected alternatives are shown by iso-lines. 187

Figure 6:11 Accessibility Zones according to table 6:6.

^ ♦ i < &

Accessi b il i ty scores

20 km 188

Figure 6:12 Accessibility Zones according to table 8:2 b)

Accessibility scores

10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 25

30 - 35 20 km 189

6.3.4 C O N C L U D IN G REMARKS

In the method presented above, the existing pattern of usage has been used to give a rough estimate of the level of demand. The weights determi­ ning accessibility have been derived from data that describe the patterns of travelling and usage of different sections of the population. At the same time, these data give a basis for the estimates of costs, both to society and the individual.

Alternative services in an area, well suited for this kind of planning, have been analysed in greater or lesser detail, to give a tangible per­ spective to the potential for demand-oriented planning which can be car­ ried out by using th is method. I t must be strongly emphasized th at th is approach must not be used as an excuse fo r using a low level of demand as an argument fo r withholding any ju s tifie d parts o f our w elfare, but to quote an old proverb, the best must not be the enemy of the good.

In any case, it is only fair that the travelling costs and the inconvenien- cies born by the population must be taken into account, when deciding the location and the scope of the services. As has been mentioned above, it is a well-known fact that the usage of health services diminishes by the di­ stance to the source of supply. This also applies to more specialised forms of treatment. A study of treatment frequency in Västerbotten,^shows ob­ vious correlatio n between the proportion of people treated fo r serious eye diseases such as cataract, glaucoma and squint, on the one hand, and the distance to an ophthalmic clinic, on the other. The frequency of eye treat­ ment of diseases caused by diabetes, which involve closer ties to the source of treatment and demands for specialists examinations in connection with the driving test, for example, do not show the same degree of vulnerability to distance. It should be an urgent goal of research to try to fix relevant standards of accessibility for other forms and levels of medical care as well as out-patient health services on a local level. The disadvantages of using the data on local usage for weighting are of course, partly, that it presupposes a d etailed study of the area th a t the planning is concerned with, and partly, that the patterns of usage are liable to change. The level 190 of demand is likely to depend on the services that people have become accustomed to, and a changed pattern of services w ill, therefore, gradual­ ly affect the demand for other possibilities. But a series of studies in representative areas would give data sufficiently applicable in general to make it possible to use the method in most cases. It should of course also be pointed out that data based on one week's observations alone, are too unreliable, to form the basis for a definite plan. Longer series of observations are necessary, but, for reasons of time, it was not pos­ sible to make such observations within the course of this study.

What has been demonstrated here can naturally be applied as well to other social service sectors besides health. In Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 24, the model has also been applied, with certain minor modifications, to the retail trade and nursery schools. The weights for the planning of re­ t a il trade were obtained from studies on shopping habits in the commune of Vindeln,28^and the problems of accessibility by the preschool children were similarly demonstrated by letting the ages of the children constitute the weights that modified the actual differences in distance from home to school. 191

Notes to chapter 6

1) Socialstyrelsen (Nat.Board of Social Welfare and Medical Care) (1971). See also Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 24, for a more thorough discussion on the intentions of society with out-patient care. 2) Socialdepartementet (The Ministry for Health & Social Affairs) (1967). 3) Glesbygdsutredningen: Hälso- och sjukvård i glesbygder. 4) SOU 1974:1 and SOU 1974:3. Kungl. Majt:s prop 1970:75, Translated quotation. See also Kurt Samuelsson's discussion on the problem of values and regional poli­ cies in Regioner att leva i (1972). 6 Handelsdepartementet (1969). 7 SOU 1972:13, p 159. 8 Hamrin (1970). 9 ERU (1971). 10 See the discussion on the concept of accessibility, pl60et seq. 11 SOU 1972:56, p 37 et seq. 12 Socialstyrelsen (1971). 13 See the discussion on health care planning further below in this chapter. 14 Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 19 (1971). 15 Yeates (1968) p 148. 16 Lindberg (1972) p 17 SOU 1970:14, bilaga 4. 18 Spri report 14/69. 19 Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 19. 20 'Consumer u n it' is a standardized measure which was used in SOU 1961:8 as an instrument for estimating the future need of medical doctors. See also Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 19, p 23-25. 21 See also the discussion on the spatial distribution of aged people in chapter 4. 22 A technical description of the model is given in Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 24. See also SOU 1974:3 and Gabrielsson-Wiberg (1974). 23 Glesbygdsforskningen, report nr 25 (1973). 24 Spri report 14/71 pp 36-47 (paper written by Björn Smedby). 25 Spri project 3003 (1972). 192

26) See also appendix, table 8:1. 27) Linnér (1973) pp 311-315. 28) See also the discussion on the calculations of completeness in chapter 5. 193 7 Summary

This thesis deals with issues concerning the problems of depopulation in the six northernmost counties in Sweden. It is part of a research project called 'Glesbygdsforskningen1 (The research project for Sparsely Popu­ lated Areas) at the Department of Geography at the University of Umeå, in northern Sweden. In th is thesis "G-" stands fo r “Glesbygd", (depopu­ lated or sparsely populated area). As the title of the thesis indicates, i t deals with the problems in the planning of services. The aims of the thesis may be formulated in the following points: a) to give a survey of some of the most important public reports in order 1) to give a background to contemporary Swedish regional p o lic ie s , 2) to indicate certain target conflicts that may emerge in connection to secto rial economic and physical planning. b) to give a basis fo r the planning o f an improved environment in the de­ populated areas, by analysing the location and the extent of problems connected with the supply of services in the six northernmost counties. c) to define the basis of a stable place structure in the form of a strate­ gic locality system, by estimating the minimum size for a place in which the supply of services can be kept at a relatively high level, even if the population in the surrounding area decreases drastically, using estimates of the consumer base of the area. d) to discuss methods of planning the supply of services in sparsely popu­ lated areas.

As regards point a), the survey of the public reports mainly covers the period 1940-1965. At the beginning of this period, it is evident that the reports recommended a careful concentration of the outlying settlements to more p ro fita b le areas, though always against the background th at i t was desirable to maintain as much local areal production as possible. Towards the end of the 1940’*s, the importance of central places was stressed. In­ dustrial activities should be located in strategically situated places of 194

such a size that expansion might favour the agricultural hinterland. The possibilities of relieving the loss of the labour force through emigration were discussed more and more, and the question of the location of schools played an increasingly important part in the debate on the location of the settlements.

In the 195(Ts, the labour market authorities began an increasingly active labour market policy. It was no longer a question of preserving the agri­ cultural areas in Norrland to strengthen national agricultural production. The maintenance of some agriculture in G-areas in Norrland became more an argument for not creating unnecessary difficu lties for forestry. A new com­ mune reform was prepared, and the device intended to maintain the purchasing power of the new bigger communes was the development of centres. The new communes were created according to central place theoretical principles, and the road net system was planned mainly to link major nodes together. Not until 1965 was a location policy programme presented.

As regards b), the location and the estimates of the extent of the problem areas have been carried out by means of three different methods. In each case, electoral wards have been used as the unit of spatial reference. The variable providing the basis for the fir s t of the three classifications car­ ried out, is the proportion of aged people over 64 years of age. The high proportion of aged people in G-areas constitutes an acute planning problem, principally for the health and social welfare authorities. The trend towards a more and more skewed age structure is strong in practically all weakly ur­ banized communes in the northernmost counties. The analysis of the spatial distribution of aged people also shows high proportions of aged people in the outlying parts of the inland communes and along the Norwegian border, where proportions of aged people of 25% are not unusual. A study of the rate of depopulation and the changed median age also indicates a strong cor­ relation. In inland communes, such as överkalix in the county of Norrbotten, for example, there has been a population decrease of 30% between the years 1960 and 1970. During the same period, the median age has increased by 11,5 years: from 26,4 to 37,9 years. 195

The second classification of electoral wards is based on conditions in the retail trades. With the turnover of every day commodities and specia­ lised goods as a starting-point, a measure of centrality has been con­ structed, where all the turnover above a minimum level forms an index of centrality. The minimum level is based on a study of the consumption of every day commodities in electoral wards and in places on a low hierar­ chical level. It is shown that, with one exception, the proportion of the population living in wards totally lacking centrality, exceeds 22% of the total population of the counties studied. In the county of Västerbotten, there are no less than 72 400 inhabitants (31%), in such wards.

The third classification method differs from the two others inasmuch as it combines a whole series of variables into a scale with discrete steps. The method is based on the presence or the absence of high proportions of aged people and the turn-over in the retail trade forming the index of centrality, and, in addition, on the distance to a number of public service establishments.

This method of measurement may be compared to a "sieve", where the ward to be classified is in itia lly assumed to be situated on the highest level of a hierarchy of 1+7 classes, where the superior class comprises wards with populations of 2200 people or more. Areas within this class can be conceived to be part of a higher, not systematized hierarchy. Technically, this classification is carried out by feeding data about the wards into a computer programmed for successive logical choices. I f the wards does not f i l l the qualifications for membership in the highest class, it is brought through a flow schedule until the criteria for the appropriate level for attribution are filled.

The results of the calculations are presented in maps, showing the a tt r i­ buted levels for the total of 1563 wards. If an arbitrary lim it between levels 3 and 4 is fixed, this means that 240 000 out of the 1 476 000 in­ habitants of the research area belonged to classes with too poor accessi­ b ility to services during the period of the study. 196

As regards c), threshold values for a number of service establishments have been calculated. The starting-point has been a sociological study of attitudes and preferences with regard to private and public services. These establishments, seen as a to tal, constitute an aggregate, the existence of which in one single place conveys that this place can be characterized by the population in the sparsely populated hinterland as 'very good1 as regards service.

The study of the completeness of service in all places within the research area shows that a population of 2200 people in a central place generally gives a reasonable certainty that all service functions are represented, and that such a place can work as a strategic locality in a stable hierarchy of central places. The contribution of purchasing power by the hinterland has been estimated by: a) calculating the shortfall from selfsufficiency of the hinterland. b) recalculating the number of inhabitants with regard to lower purchasing power, c) applying a travel reluctance function, and by d) estimating the 'leakage' to significantly superior centres.

The calculations have shown that the contribution to purchasing power by the hinterland amounts, on average, to 30% of the number of inhabitants in a strategic locality. The consequences of this fact are, that a strategic locality in an area extremely affected by depopulation should not have a population lower than 3000, i f the depopulation and the increase in costs continue.

As regards d), the concluding chapter is based on the situation of the people in sparsely populated areas, presented in the study of the supply of services There is a considerable over-representation of aged people in the outlying areas, poor service coverage, and risks of reduction in the collection of 197 services in the central place because of reduced population base. The concept 'accessibility1 is discussed on the basis of the terms 'demands' and 'needs', where 'needs' are normative and 'demands' depend upon the individual's subjective demands. Examples of the differences are given in the study of how out-patient health service in a typically sparsely populated commune, Vindeln, in the county of Västerbotten. A planning system that is based on age-stratified weighted distances, where the weights have been derived from usage patterns, is discussed, and this system is applied to the health service sector of the studied commune.

The calculations show, among other things, that substantial gains in accessibility can be made by comparatively modest measures taken in the form of treatment at a low hiearchical level. Above a ll, the older sec­ tion of the population are shown to be particularly dependent on supplies close at hand. 198 8 Appendix

Figure 1:1 Centrality Scores.

Table 1:1 Tables Showing Accessibility and Transport Work - f According to Figures 6:9 and 6:10.

Figure 1:2 Flow Chart for S-L Classification.

Figure 1:3 Places With a Population Over 2200 (1970).

Table 1:2 List of Publications in the Series Glesbygdsforskningen. Figure 8:1 C e n tra lity Scores

Division into E lectoral Wards in the Research A rea 1965 200

Table 8:1 Tables Showing Accessibility and Transport Work According to Figures 6:9 and 6:10.

a) Supply reinforced with d is tric t nurse at Mårdsele.

Consequences in the Âmsele area

Accessibility Age Group Low scores denote a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. IB?. cum. r e i. 0-5 132 132 43,4 238 238 37,5 88 88 42,9 5-10 42 174 13,8 88 326 13,8 30 118 14,6 10-15 35 209 11,5 84 410 13,2 16 134 7,8 15-20 32 241 10,5 96 506 15,1 31 165 15,1 20-25 53 294 17,4 107 613 16,8 26 191 12,6 25-30 10 304 3,2 19 632 2,9 10 201 4,8 30-35 0 304 2 634 0,3 4 205 1,9

Upper and lower quarti le: Qn= 0,69 Qi= 0 ,84 Qn= 0 ,62 Q‘=16,93 <4=08 ,31 <4=17 ,25

The population in the three most favourable classes of accessibility: 209 410 134

Age Group Measurements of Transportation ______Person kilo- Person kilo- Transport Time cost Transport meter per year meter per cost per per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year /Return/ cost per ______/Return/ ______/Return/ ______.year I 1247 I 3432 0-19 6620 21,77 2185 II 831 II 3016 III 623 III 2808 I 4842 I 13248 20-64 25473 40,17 8406 II 3216 II 11622 III 2385 III 10791 I 4159 I 11376 65+ 21870 106,68 7217 II 2769 II 9986 III 2068 III 9285 201

b) D istrict nurse in Vindeln only.

Consequences in the Ämsele area

Accessibility Age Group Low scores denote a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ abs. cum. re i. abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. 0-33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33-35 0 0 0 14 14 2,2 15 15 9,3 35-40 19 19 6,2 166 180 26,2 132 147 64,3 40-45 41 60 13,4 272 452 49,2 18 154 5,3 45-50 148 208 48,6 59 511 9,9 8 173 3,9 50-55 29 237 9,5 41 552 6,5 7 180 3,4 55-60 30 267 9,8 26 578 4,1 15 195 7,3 60-65 5 272 1,6 29 607 4,5 8 203 3,9 65-70 32 304 10,5 27 634 4,3 2 205 0,9

Upper and

lower quarti le: Q-i =47 Q-i =39 ,42 Q-i =38 CO o o o <4=52 o cn <4=45 ,67 <4=44

No one lives in areas with accessibility scores under 33 km weighted distance.

Age Group Measurements of Transportation Person kilo­ Person kilo­ Transport Time cost Transport meter per year meter per cost per per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year /Return/ cost per /Return/ /Return/ year I 7208 I 19748 0-19 38006 125,02 12540 II 4816 II 17356 I I I 3604 I I I 16144 I 19802 I 57142 20-64 113156 164,48 37340 II 13226 II 50566 I I I 9900 I I I 47240 I 18508 I 50678 65+ 97486 475,46 32170 II 12338 II 44508 I I I 9254 I I I 41424 202

c) Doctor at Vindeln. Branch surgery at Häl 1 näs - District nurse at Vindeln.

Consequences in the Vindeln area

Accessibility Age Group Low scores denote a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. 0-5 598 598 33,3 1195 1195 33,5 462 462 43,2 5-10 205 803 11,4 504 1699 14,1 36 498 3,3 10-15 67 870 3,7 149 1848 4,1 64 562 5,9 15-20 366 1236 20,4 731 2579 20,4 231 793 21,6 20-25 337 1573 18,8 596 3175 16,7 165 958 15,4 25-30 116 1689 6,4 199 3374 5,5 50 1008 4,6 30-35 61 1750 3,4 194 3568 5,4 61 1069 5,7 35-40 41 1791 2,2 0 0 0 0 0 0

Upper and lower quartile: Q-,= 0,75 Q.,= 0,76 Q.,= 0,85 Q^=21,85 Q^=21,05 (^=20,44

The population in the three most favourable classes of accessibility: 870 1848 562

Age Group Measurements of Transportation ______Person kilo- Person kilo- Transport Time cost Transport meter per year meter per cost per per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year /Return/ cost per /Return/ ______/Return/ ______year I 15924 I 4374 0-19 84304 47,06 27820 II 10616 II 3843 III 7962 III 3578 I 45556 I 12509 20-64 241020 67,54 79536 II 30506 II 11004 III 22778 III 10239 I 15110 I 4144 65+ 79810 74,64 26336 II 10114 II 3645 III 7554 III 3389 203

d) Supply reinforced with d istrict nurse at Granö.

Consequences in the Vindeln area

Accessibility Age Group Low scores denote a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ abs. cum. rei. abs. cum. rei. abs. cum. rei. 0-5 598 598 33,3 1195 1195 33,4 462 462 43,2 5-10 205 803 11,4 504 1696 14,1 36 498 3,3 10-15 277 1080 15,4 189 1888 5,2 75 573 7,0 15-20 425 1505 23,7 1120 3008 31,3 319 892 29,8 20-25 140 1645 7,8 235 3243 6,5 80 972 7,4 25-30 78 1723 4,3 210 3453 5,8 60 1032 5,6 30-35 27 1750 1,5 115 3568 3,2 37 1069 3,4 35-40 41 1791 2,2 0 3568 0 0 1069 0

Upper and lower quarti le: Q i = 0,75 Q i = 0,75 Q,= 0,85 Qg=16,79 Q^=l6,80 Q^=16,96

The population in the three most favourable classes of accessibility: 1080 1880 573

Age Group Measurements of Transportation Person kilo­ Person kilo­ Transport Time cost Transport meter per year meter per cost per per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year /Return/ cost per /Return/ /Return/ I 13883 I 38096 0-19 73374 40,96 24213 II 9289 II 33502 I I I 6941 I I I 31154 I 41285 I 113314 20-64 218272 61,17 72029 II 27659 II 99688 I I I 20540 I I I 92569 I 14136 I 38748 65+ 74584 69,76 24612 II 9444 II 34056 I I I 7068 I I I 31680 204

e) Reinforced supply at Tvärål und instead of Granö.

Consequences in the Vindeln area

Accessibility Age Group low scores denote a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. rei. 0-5 598 598 33,3 1195 1195 33,4 462 462 43,2 5-10 354 952 19,7 512 1707 14,3 39 501 3,6 10-15 124 1076 6,9 541 2248 15,1 172 673 16,0 15-20 189 1265 10,5 385 2633 10,7 143 816 13,3 20-25 311 1576 17,3 552 3185 15,4 145 961 13,5 25-30 124 1700 6,9 227 2412 6,3 58 1019 5,4 30-35 50 1750 2,7 156 3568 4,3 50 1069 4,6 35-40 41 1791 2,2 0 3568 0 0 1069 0

Upper and lower quartile: Q.= 0,75 Q-,= 0,76 Q,= 0,85 00=21,55 00=20,43 q' =19,42 The population in the three most favourable classes of accessibility: 1076 2248 673

Age Group Measurements of Transportation ______Person kilo- Person kilo- Transport Time cost Transport meter per year meter per cost per per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year /Return/ cost per /Return/ /Return/ ______year I 14904 I 40866 0-19 78675 43,92 25962 II 9902 II 35864 I I I 7452 I I I 33414 I 43115 I 118333 20-64 227935 63,88 75218 II 28879 II 104097 I I I 21557 I I I 96775 I 14441 I 39524 65+ 76010 71 ,10 25083 II 9627 II 34710 I I I 7190 I I I 32273 205

f) Supply reinforced with d is tric t nurse both at Granö and Tvärålund.

Consequences in the Vindeln area

Accessibility Age Group L.UW d t U I C d UCMUUC a favourable situation 0-19 20-64 65+ ab s. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. abs. cum. r e i. 0-5 598 598 33,4 1195 1195 33,4 462 462 43,2 5-10 354 952 19,8 512 1707 14,3 39 501 3,6 10-15 334 1268 18,6 581 2288 16,2 183 684 17,1 15-20 184 1470 10,3 711 2999 19,9 205 889 19,1 20-25 178 1648 9,9 254 3253 7,1 86 975 8,0 25-30 75 1723 4,2 200 3453 5,6 57 1032 5,3 30-35 27 1750 1 »5 115 3568 3,2 37 1069 3,4 35-40 41 1791 2,3 0 3568 0 0 1069 0

Upper and lower quarti le Qt= 0,75 Q,= : 0,75 Q i = 0 ,85 0^=15,67 =16,0 ,82 Qj 6 The population in the three most favourable classes of accessibility: 1286 2288 684

Age Group Measurements of Transportation Person kilo- Person kilo- Transport Time cost Transport meter per year meter per cost per per year cost+Time /Return/ head and year year /Return/ cost per /Return/ /Return/ year I 12965 I 35537 0-19 68400 38,19 22572 II 8677 II 31429 I I I 6431 I I I 29003 I 39251 I 107481 20-64 206758 57,94 68230 II 26032 II 94262 I I I 19524 I I I 87754 I 13466 I 36917 65+ 71066 66,47 23451 II 8957 II 32408 I I I 6702 I I I 30153 Figure 8:2 Flow Chart for S-L Classification.

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Reduction by one class Total reduction should be summed up 207

Figure 8:3 Places With a PopulationOver 22Q0 (1970). (+) denotes places with more than 3000 inh.

O C 3

+1 Avesta +37 Kvissleby +2 Borlänge 38 Låagsele +3 Falun +39 Matfors 4 Grycksbo +40 Sollefteå +5 Hedemora 41 Sundsbruk +6 Leksand +42 Sundsvall +7 Ludvika +43 Timrå 8 Långshyttan +44 inge +9 Malung +45 Örnsköldsvik +10 Mora 46 Brunflo +11 Orsa +47 Frösön 12 Roane +48 Ströasund +13 Rättvik 49 Sveg +14 Smedjebacken +50 Östersund „ +15 Säter 51 Boliden StVj l6 Alfta +52 Holasund 17 Arbrå 53 Hörnefors +18 Bollnäs 54 Kleaensnäs +19 Edsbyn +55 Lycksele +20 Gävle +56 Skelleftehamn +21 Hofors +57 Skellefteå +22 Hudiksvall +58 TJneå +23 Iggesund 59 Asele +24 Ljusdal +60 Arvidsjaur +25 Ljusne +61 Bergnäset 26 Ockelbo +62 Boden 27 Sandarne +63 Gaanelstad +28 Sandviken +64 Gällivare 29 Storvik +65 Haparanda +30 Söderhaan 66 Jokkaokk +31 Valbo +67 Kalix 32 Alvik +68 Kiruna +33 Bollstabruk +69 Luleå 34 Husun +70 Malmberget +35 Härnösand +71 Piteå +36 Kramfors +72 Älvsbyn +74 Grängesberg +73 Öjebyn 208

Table 8:2 List of Publications in the Series Glesbygdsforskningen.

Rapport nr 1 Gösta Weissglas: Karta över vägtätheten i W9 X, Y, Z9 AC och BD län.

Rapport nr 2 Gösta Weissglas: Baspunkter för serviceutbudet i W9 X, Y, Z} AC och BD län.

Rapport nr 3 Olof Erson-Gösta Weissglas: Karta över valdistriktsin- delningen i W, X, Y, Z9 AC och BD län.

Rapport nr 4 Gösta Weissglas-Berndt öquist: Valdistriktens centrali- te t; en undersökning baserad på detaljhandelsomsätt­ ningen i glesbygdsforskningens undersökningsområde.

Rapport nr 5 Olof Erson-Gösta Weissglas: Befolkningens fördelning på ålder och valdistrikt i W9 X9 Y9 Z9 AC och BD län.

Rapport nr 6 Einar Holm: Glesbygd och rumsliga kontraktionsprocesser.

Rapport nr 7 Roger Axelsson: Kapitalförlust t i l l följd av snabb be- folkningsminskning.

Rapport nr 8 Gösta Weissglas: Services-läges karakteristika för val­ distrikten i W, X9 Y9 Z9 AC och BD län.

Rapport nr 9 Olof Erson: Arbetsresor och sysselsättning. En studie av pendling med material från AC län.

Rapport nr 10 Torsten Åström: En sociologisk undersökning av fem gles­ bygdsområden. Del I.

Rapport nr 11 Carl-Eric Ericsson: Livsmedelshandelns utveckling i Jämt­ lands län9 1950-1963.

Rapport nr 12 Bengt Berggren-Ove Hessmo: Skogsbruket och serviceorterna. En översiktlig studie av dagspendling9 serviceunderlag och skogsbrukssysselsättning samt skogsuttag i norra Sverige.

Rapport nr 13 Olof Erson: Sysselsättning i industri i de sex nordliga länen.

Rapport nr 14 Gösta Weissglas: Glesbygd och samhällsplanering.

Rapport nr 15 Torsten Lundberg-Per Sjöstedt: Glesbygdsstudie i Umeå- regionen.

Rapport nr 16 Fred Hedquist: Lokaliseringsstödets sysselsättningseffekt inom stödområdet. 209

Rapport nr 17 Dan Jonsson-Ulf Wiberg: Serviceförsörjning i glesbygd i Gävleborgs län.

Rapport nr 18 Olof Erson-Einar Holm: Bo-pendla-arbeta. En studie av lokala variationer i befolkningens tillgång på industri­ arbete baserad på situationen i de sex nordliga länen 1965/66.

Rapport nr 19 Gottne Lindgren-Jan Palmquist-Gösta Weissglas: Sjukvård i glesbygd. En undersökning av den öppna sjukvårdens organisation och regionala variation.

Rapport nr 20 Ulf Kjäl1-Lars-Eric Westin: Flyttning från Umeå A-region med särskild hänsyn till "AMS-flyttarna".

Rapport nr 21 Rolf Johnsson-Eric Lindahl: Tätorterna och servicens täck­ ningsgrad i Norrland och Dalarna.

Rapport nr 22 Sven-Olof Edström: Samhällsekonomiska förluster inom han­ deln t i l l följd av arbetskraftens flyttningar - en inten­ si vstudie avseende Vilhelmina kommun.

Rapport nr 23 Jan Johansson-Leif Lundberg: Kust och inland. En studie av kommunikationerna t i l l och från Arvidsjaur.

Rapport nr 24 Gösta Weissglas-Ulf Wiberg: Tillgänglighet till service.

Rapport nr 25 Barbro Forslin-Gudrun Persson: Patientströmmar och vård­ konsumtion i Vindelns kommun.

Rapport nr 26 Christer Lundin-Nils Sundberg: Utbudet av öppen vård i Sverige. En tillgäng!i ghets stud i e.

Rapport nr 27 Ulf Wiberg: Service- och trafikplanering i glesbygd. 210 9 Bibliography

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