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ANTONIN : a FORECASTING MODEL for TRAVEL DEMAND in 1 - V'~ ILE DE FRANCE

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ANTONIN : a FORECASTING MODEL for TRAVEL DEMAND in 1 - V'~ ILE DE FRANCE ANTONIN : A FORECASTING MODEL FOR TRAVEL DEMAND IN 1 - v'~ ILE DE FRANCE H.F. Gunn Hague Consulting Group J.G. Tuinenga Hague Consulting Group J.F. Aliouche Syndicat des Transports Pafisiens L. Debrincat Syndicat des Transports Parisiens I. INTRODUCTION During 1994 and 1995, the Syndicat des Transports Parisiens commissioned Hague Consulting Group to undertake the work of establishing a travel demand forecasting system for the lie de France, essentially the enlarged Paris region. The resulting model system (ANTONIN, Analysis of Transport Organisation and New Infrastructure) has since been in use internally in the course of validation and refinement studies, and has been provided externally to a number of planning studies requiring detailed forecasts for the Paris.region. The current development of the system is judged such that ANTONIN can now be presented for wider Use. The purpose of this paper is to outline the background to the model development, the nature of the forecasts that were required, and the implications this has had for the details , of the model system developed. The focus on multiple transport networks with a high level of market segmentation (as between traveller types and journey purposes) strongly emphasised the need for a comparable high level of disaggregation in the specification, estimation and application of the system. This requirement was met by the adoption and extension of a general disaggregate forecasting model structure developed by HCG, resulting in the ANTONIN system. This structure, with local var/ations, is also used for the Dutch national/regional models, the Stockholm system and (to a limited extent) in Dublin. It is also the structure being developed in Sydney. Key model elasticities from ANTONEN are presented, along with comparisons of the model system with other current forecasting systems for large urbanised areas. A discussion of the validation process is also included. The remainder of the paper is set out in six sections; Section 2 sets out the requirements for the model system, in terms era the requirements of the STP, together with a broad description of the study area and its transport networks. Section 3 analyses the implications for Market Segmentation within the model, section 4 setting out the overall Model Smlcture. Section 5 deals with the comparison with similar models (we have chosen the models for San Francisco, Stockholm, an early London model, the Dutch 99 national/regional system and the Dublin models). Section 6 provides some information on system elasticities, with section 7 setting out our conclusions and reeommendations. 2. BACKGROUND REQUIREMENTS FOR ~ FORECASTING SYSTEM 2.1 The Transportation Role of STP in Be de France The STP is responsible for the oversight of a wide-range of public transport facilities and services covering the region lie de France. These facilities and services are provided by RATP, the SNCF lle de France, and by two professional associations who represent operators of public transport in portions of the suburbs, the APTR and the ADATRIF. The types of public transport services include: • Metro service providing coverage throughout Paris and nearby communes. • Bus service covering all of Ile de France and associated reserved bus Ianes. • RER service which eormects Paris and the major urbanized regions of lie de France. • Rail services which connect Paris and the suburbs. • Light rail service in the near northern suburbs. • Numerous park-and-fide schemes located near suburban commuter rail, RER and metro stations. • Specialized public transport services such as Orly VAL (automated airport eormection). While STP's main focus is on public transport it is also concerned with the region's road system since current and future use of the public transport system is inherently linked with demand for and usage of private cars. The STP therefore required a system capable of forecasting total modal demand including a wide variety of public transport modes covering a large geographic area. 2.2 Characteristics of the Region's Population in the ANTONIN base period. Ile de France contains roughly 19 % of the population of France. In 1990, the region contained 10,660,000 people. It is the principal urbanized region of France. Population density in 1990 was 887 inhabitants per square kilometer. Within Ile de France, the City of Paris contains 2,152,400 people (about 20% of the region's total population). Table 1 summarizes the region's population charactadstics for each of the region's eight D6partements. The region is organized into three sectors : Paris, the Petite Courotme, and the Grande Couronne. Population growth follows these three sectors to a great extent. Paris has had a more or less stable population in the years between 1982 and 1990. The Petite Couroune has limited growth falling between 0.4% in the Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-St.-Denis with 4.3%. The D6partements located in the Grand Couroune have much higher rates of population growth ranging from a low of 9.3% in the Yvelinns to a high of 21.5% in Seine- et-Marne. 100 2.3 Principal Characteristics of the Region's Public Transportation System Public transport services in Ile de France are grouped under two public companies and two associations of various private companies. Their respective networks in the year 1992 are described below2 RATP • 15 metro lines covering a total of 201 kilometers. * 2 R.E.R. lines covering a total of 116 kilometers. • Bus lines totaling 3,031 kilometers. The metro is estimated to carry 1,201,400,000 travellers during 1992, the RATP RER lines some 367,200,000 and the bus lines some 845,700,000 travellers. SNCF lle de France • Commuter train lines totaling 994 kilometers. • RER. lines covering a total of 288 kilometers. These services are estimated to have carried some 542,000,000 travellers in the year. APTR • 486 bus lines covering a total of 5,557 kilometers. The APTR services were estimated to carry a total of 128,000,000 travellers per year. ADA TRIF • 315 bus lines covering a total of 4,782 kilometers. The ADATRIF carried a total of 1 i 8,000,000 travellers in the year. 2.4 General Requirements of the Forecasting System The STP requires a responsive and flexible travel forecasting system that can provide long and short term forecasts for a variety of transportation planning situations. The models can be applied both for the current year to test operational changes and for the 20-year horizon to test major in~astmcture improvements. Two principal requirements for the model system were identified; 1. capability to evaluate the consequences of the creation or modification of public transport services and facilities, as well as the impact of changes of the highways system on public transport usage; 2. capability to test a variety of transport policies involving other policy levers and other modes of travel. Network changes may involve a large section orthe region of more limited areas at a more local level. These two geographic levels are treated within the foreseen model system. 101 Other criteria include; • The estimation of the STP model system had to be based on the data from the available cross-sectional travel surveys (specifically, the Enqu&e Globale des Transports 91) for synthetic demand models and forecasts of growth; • applications of the STP model system make use of other available material which relates to absolute base-year levels of travel demand (i.e. observations or other estimates of traffic levels). • the STP model esRmation and applications had to be conducted using available econometric and transportation planning software, such as ALOGIT, MINUTP and other proprietary software packages developed by HCG for applications of travel demand model systems. PASCAL was be used as the scientific programming language for any ancillary modules. • the specification of the STP model system was initially kept feasible within existing computational and model development resources. However, the model structure was also designed with a view to being as comprehensive and flexible as possible, to be able to accommodate future extensions and refinements. It is anticipated that the models (where necessary in extended form) will be used for the study o~ • Extension of the region's heavy and light raft systems • Modification of the frequency and speed of the region's rail systems • Extension of the urban bus system and its reserved bus lines • Moffffication of fare policies • Extension and modification of the region's automobile network 2.5 Specific Requirements for the Forecasting System The Ile de France travel market brings a number of unique characteristics to the formulation of analytical methods for ANTONIN. I. lnter modal competitior~ In many of the components of the Ile de France market, these is significant competition among two or more travel modes. Depending on the area attd type of trip, this competifton is primarily among public transport modes or between ear and public transport. Multiple paths within modes= A review of network data suggested that, in many areas, both automobile and public transport users have multiple alternative paths that provide reasonable service levels. The competition between the various routes is particularly strong in the ease of public transport, where differences in perceptions of the characteristics of the various routes and technologies (bus, tram metro PER and the possible combinations of these) may require detailed analysis. Importance of access modes. Many of the existing public transport users take several modes or lines in order to reach their final destination. For example, someone may take the bus to reach the metro and then walk to his final destination. The manner in which the sequencing of trip stages is treated can have a significant 102 impact on the viability of the forecasting modes since, as stated under #2, travellers are presented with several alternative public transport paths in many instances.
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