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CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE REVIEW Fortify Against Increasingly Destructive Wildfire Seasons

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BURNING ISSUES CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE REVIEW Fortify Against Increasingly Destructive Wildfire Seasons Photo: iStock BURNING ISSUES CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE REVIEW A growing catalog of natural 1970’s the average length of the wildfire season catastrophes threaten California’s wine was five months. Today, it lasts more than seven. WORST CALIFORNIA FIRE industry and agribusiness, and despite The scale of these fires has increased to the degree that the fires themselves are now contributing to unprecedented sequential wildfire the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. perils, conflagration and increasing SEASON IN HISTORY weather volatility, Allianz’s network of – Unusually high rainfall the previous winter, promoting abundant new vegetation growth experts partner to strengthen these – Greenhouse gas emissions cause global industries. These proactive strategies temperatures to rise Wildland-urban interface Over 9,000 wildfires ripped through California in – Warmer temperatures cause earlier snowmelt, the last months of 2017 burning 1.2 million acres and innovative technologies secure Fires in California, Sept. - Dec. 2017 increase evaporation and dry out vegetation of land, destroying more than 10,800 structures longevity and progress, despite – Drier conditions increase likelihood of wildfire, and killing at least 46 people. ongoing volatilities. as well as, length, duration and area burned – Fires expand rapidly, burn more area and move Two major outbreaks in California led to the in unpredictable ways record-breaking season. The October event in Weather volatility is driving up temperatures and – Warmer climate is increasing pest outbreaks Northern California, also known as the Northern increasing wildfire risks. Temperatures in the which contribute to wildfire risk California firestorm, comprised a series of over Western U.S. are expected to increase by 2.4° to Tubbs fire 250 wildfires that started burning in early 6.5°F by mid-century. The size of the area burned Nuns fire Sacramento October. Twenty-one of the wildfires became each year, the number of wildfires and the length Atlas fire major fires burning at least 245,000 acres. These of the wildfire season is also growing. In the early San Francisco fires included the Tubbs Fire, the Atlas Fire, the Nuns Fire, and left 44 people dead and 185 injured. Total economic losses were estimated around $13bn of which $11bn was insured. This is by far the costliest wildfire outbreak ever recorded for the industry. WILDFIRES ARE INCREASING AND A separate major outbreak impacted Southern Creek fire WILDFIRE SEASON IS GETTING California and cost insurers in excess of $2.1 bn. Thomas fire Multiple wildfires ignited across Southern LONGER IN THE WESTERN U.S. Los Angeles California in December 2017 with six of the fires becoming significant wildfires leading to widespread evacuations and property losses. San Diego The wildfires burned over 307,900 acres causing traffic disruptions, school closures, hazardous air conditions, and power outages; over 230,000 Average number of large wildfires per year Average length of wildfire season people were forced to evacuate. In terms of bigger than 1000 acres area, one fire — the Thomas Fire — was the Early 1970s: 5 months largest in modern California history, spanning some 281,893 acres. Today: 7+ months 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2012 ~140 ~160 ~250 2 3 BURNING ISSUES CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE REVIEW WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA SHATTER RECORDS Costliest in US history: Most acres burned in Worst air pollution in Biggest wildfire in Comprehensive California in the last the Bay Area: Air modern California expenditures (inc. fire 5 years: quality index reached history: Thomas Fire suppression, insurance and recovery): $16BN 1,248,606 acres 486* 281,893 acres burned $180BN * Air quality is considered "very unhealthy" when the index reaches 201 Photo: iStock LARGEST FIRES IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY MOST DESTRUCTIVE FIRES Five of California’s most destructive wildfires on record occurred in 2017. In fact, 2017 is the THOMAS ( ) , ACRES BURNED (AS OF JAN. ) TUBBS ( ) , STRUCTURES DESTROYED CEDAR () TUNNEL () costliest year on record for insurers with total RUSH () CEDAR () U.S. wildfire peril totaling $16bn in losses. The RIM () VALLEY () full damage in California is estimated to be as ZACA ( ) WITCH () high as $180bn in costs stemming from fire MATILIJA () NUNS ( ) , suppression to insurance and recovery WITCH ( ) THOMAS ( ) , (AS OF JAN. ) KLAMATH THEATER COMPLEX () OLD () expenditures. MARBLE CONE ( ) JONES () LAGUNA ( ) BUTTE () California may not see a reprieve this year. BASIN COMPLEX () ATLAS ( ) For the first time, the National Interagency DAY () PAINT () Fire Center’s Predictive Outlook for 2018 is STATION () FOUNTAIN () forecasting above normal large fire potential ROUGH () SAYRE () MCNALLY () CITY OF BERKELEY () due to the persistence of dry fuels, frequent STANISLAUS COMPLEX ( ) HARRIS () offshore winds and generally BIG BAR COMPLEX () REDWOOD VALLEY ( ) unfavorable weather. HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX () BEL AIR () SOBERANES () LAGUNA () Photo: iStock CAMPBELL COMPLEX () ERSKINE () ACRES BURNED STRUCTURES DESTROYED 4 5 BURNING ISSUES CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE REVIEW AFTERMATH: Photo: Shutterstock “With tens of thousands of MUDSLIDES AND FLOODS acres of thick chaparral brush, a hot, dry Mediterranean climate, and millions of people After record breaking fires, came floods and who might either accidentally deadly mud and debris slides. The rains and LIVING flooding struck Santa Barbara County in early or intentionally light fires, January, 2018. Most of Montecito had just California is the most narrowly escaped the largest single fire in WITH California history, the Thomas Fire, which burned flammable place on earth,” vegetation and melted wax and resins found naturally in California’s soil. This melted wax - Ray Ford, Santa Barbara Independent creates a water repellency (hydrophobic) layer WILDFIRE causing topsoil loss and severe debris flows. As hard rains hit the repellency layer, it gains momentum careening down mountain sides and destroying all in its path. Many had to be rescued ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS OF from their roofs while some properties completely disappeared after a 300-foot wide stream of mud THE 2017 CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES: and heavy debris ripped through them. The debris slide left 20 people dead, destroyed at least 65 – Growing residential areas, (i.e., Santa Rosa grew 13% between homes and damaged more than 460 others. 2000-2010 and fires claimed 5% of those new homes) – Santa Ana and Diablo winds In addition, the wreckage forced a shutdown of – Increased fire suppression/fewer controlled burns U.S. 101, the only major freeway between Santa – Steep terrain/topography Barbara and points east. For some businesses, the – Vegetation spacing/landscaping forced closure of major freeway commerce routes – Flammable vegetation (eucalyptus trees) and invasive grasses (wild oats, red brome and foxtail) highlighted very real business interruption exposures. The rest of the community’s infrastructure also was damaged. Some streets were cracked in half, and authorities closed Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) bridges and overpasses because they were unstable. A preliminary assessment of the The U.S. West Coast is regularly confronted with the risk of conflagration if a wildfire is sparked. An estimated economic impacts of the Montecito mudslide 3.6 million residential properties in California are situated within wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas, with shows residential property damages could cost up more than one million of those residences highly exposed to wildfire events, according to a 2010 Federal study. to $204 million to fully repair and/or rebuild. However, the Tubbs wildfire spread into the Coffey Park neighborhood that was situated outside WUI areas. The mudslide peril in Santa Barbara County This disaster highlights wildfire vulnerability of urban environments across the state and the importance of continued into spring, as heavy rains caused mud continually mitigating wildfire exposure to protect people, homes, and businesses. and debris flow endangering communities still Photo: Shutterstock recovering from the January devastation. 6 7 BURNING ISSUES CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE REVIEW AGRIBUSINESS AND GLOBAL PROSPERITY Natural Catastrophes and Climate Change both According to Jason Funk, senior climate scientist MITIGATING CLIMATE AND CATASTROPHE RISKS IN THE ranked in the top ten of global risks in the 2018 with the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), the Allianz Risk Barometer, the annual corporate risk trend is that wildfires are burning more area WORLD’S MAJOR WINE REGIONS survey based on insight from more than 1,900 risk around the world. Projections by the UCS suggest management experts from 80 countries. From that wildfires could get four, five and even six times hurricanes to wildfires, heat waves and droughts to as bad as they currently are within this century. prolonged floods, 2017 was a record year for natural Drought EUROPE disasters with approximately $330bn in overall losses “The areas where wildfires are taking place are from natural catastrophes and around $135bn in always areas that [have become] drier and hotter, UNITED STATES insured losses. Climate disruptions are increasing in and where spring has come earlier,” said Funk. Earthquake volatility throughout the world, impacting many Drier conditions and higher temperatures increase CHINA sectors and industries. Among one of the hardest hit not only the likelihood of a wildfire to occur,
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