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Species Status Assessment North Oregon Coast Population of the Red Tree Vole

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Species Status Assessment North Oregon Coast Population of the Red Tree Vole Species Status Assessment _______________________ North Oregon Coast Population of the Red Tree Vole (Arborimus longicaudus) Version 1.0 Photo by Patrick Wright 2019 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Oregon Fish and Wildlife Office Interior Region 9 Portland, Oregon This document was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s red tree vole species status assessment team (Sue Livingston and Rebecca Migala). We received valuable assistance from Damon Lesmeister and Mark Linnell (U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station) in developing analytical units for our condition analysis. Valuable reviews of this document were provided by the following: U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station (Mark Linnell, Jim Swingle, Todd Wilson) Bureau of Land Management, Oregon State Office (Rob Huff) Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde (Lindsay Belonga) Oregon Department of Forestry (Sarah Navarro, Nick Palazzotto, Jennifer Weikel, Mike Wilson) Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (Martin Nugent) National Council for Air and Stream Improvement (Jake Verschuyl) Recommended citation: U.S.F.W.S. (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service). 2019. Species status assessment: north Oregon coast population of the red tree vole (Arborimus longicaudus) Version 1.0. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Portland, Oregon. Red Tree Vole SSA, Version 1.0 October 1, 2019 Executive Summary This document presents the species status assessment (SSA) for the North Oregon Coast Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of red tree vole (Arborimus longicaudus), completed to assess the DPS’ overall viability. We considered what the red tree vole needs to maintain viability by characterizing the status of the species in the DPS in terms of its resiliency, redundancy, and representation. For the purpose of this assessment, we generally define viability as the likelihood of the species to sustain populations over time within a biologically meaningful timeframe: in this case, 60 years. We chose 60 years because we have data to reasonably predict the potential significant effects of influence factors within the range of the red tree vole within this timeframe. Based on the red tree vole life history and habitat needs, we identified the potential stressors (negative influences), and the contributing sources of those stressors, that are likely to affect the species’ current condition and viability. These stressors include habitat loss and modification through the effects of timber harvest, wildfire, large windstorms, and tree disease; habitat fragmentation and population isolation; and predation. We evaluated how these stressors may be currently affecting the species and whether, and to what extent, they would affect the species in the future. Red tree voles are conifer-obligate, arboreal rodents, found in western Oregon south to northwestern California. They are generally associated with old forests, either nesting within or in the vicinity of forests with sufficient structures to support nests. Examples of such structures include large or palmate limbs, cavities, sloughing bark, or forked tree boles. We used a published habitat model done for red tree voles in our analysis area (which covers a slightly larger area than the DPS) to derive 11 occupied red tree vole habitat clusters based on habitat patches sufficiently large enough to accommodate an estimated >=100 individuals. These clusters represented tree vole assemblages that we evaluated for resiliency, redundancy, and representation. Habitat loss and modification through timber harvest over much of the 20th century, exacerbated by episodic large wildfire events, played the greatest role in removing habitat and contracting tree voles to their current range in the analysis area. The prevalence of the tree pathogen, Swiss needle cast, has forestalled the development of habitat ingrowth. Tree voles are restricted to existing habitat that is mostly on Federal and some State lands. In the north coast subregion of the analysis area, voles are isolated in small patches, almost completely removed from much of the area despite existing habitat. This fragmentation and isolation limits the resiliency of many of the vole habitat clusters. Population isolation is further exacerbated by the limited home range size and dispersal capability of red tree voles, as well as their low survival rates. Low numbers of voles moving very short distances severely limits the capability of vole clusters to expand across the landscape and connect with other clusters. In modeling current resiliency of individual vole habitat clusters, we derived an imputed population range, based on an estimated carrying capacity and effective population size of the cluster. We also assessed the connectivity potential to neighboring clusters to derive an overall relative resiliency condition score. Finally, we assessed representation and redundancy for each vole cluster. The largest two of the eleven clusters have high resiliency scores under the current condition. They also encompass both coastal and interior Coast Range vegetation zones in the analysis area and hence, improved representation of the behavioral capacity of tree voles to i Red Tree Vole SSA, Version 1.0 October 1, 2019 forage on different coniferous species that are prevalent in the different zones. In addition, they also strongly provide for population redundancy simply due to their size, being large enough to withstand most events except for the largest of catastrophic wildfires. Hence, these two clusters are essential to the persistence of red tree voles in the analysis area. The remaining clusters are scattered across the analysis area, except for the northern portion of the north coast subregion; although this area has blocks of tree vole habitat on the Clatsop State Forest, surveys have not yielded any voles. Four vole clusters have overall moderate resiliency scores; these include the only two clusters primarily on State forest land, as well as two clusters located on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) checkerboard ownership between the two largest clusters. The remaining five clusters have overall low resiliency scores and are located near the edges of the analysis area, either along coastal headlands or the Willamette Valley margin. We reassessed overall resiliency scores under four future scenarios that considered estimated habitat ingrowth and loss as a result of existing management plans and regulations. The two largest clusters, at 1,480 km2 (571 mi2) and 4,425 km2 (1,708 mi2), respectively, retain their high resiliency score under all four future scenarios. Wildfires represent the single natural disturbance that can occur at a scale large enough to consume all or substantial portions of these two clusters, which contain the most contiguous and largest patches of habitat and where most of the tree voles occur. Though infrequent, large-scale severe wildfires have and will continue to occur in the Oregon Coast Range. It is expected that weather conditions conducive to producing past large-scale wildfires will increase with predicted climate change, thereby increasing the chances for wildfires and loss of either or both of these habitat clusters. However, due to the episodic nature of wildfires in the Coast Range, we cannot readily predict when one will occur. We predict that of the five habitat clusters with overall low resiliency scores, all but one will become extirpated over time, thus losing their contribution to representation and to redundancy. The four habitat clusters with overall moderate resiliency scores retain their scores through the future scenarios. While voles in these clusters may be less susceptible to inbreeding compared to clusters that ranked low, they have a reduced evolutionary capacity to adapt to ecological changes over time. This effect is exacerbated in those habitat clusters that are furthest removed from neighboring clusters. While these clusters currently contribute to redundancy in terms of providing a wider distribution of red tree voles across the analysis area, they are not large enough to withstand a catastrophic event such as a wildfire, and continue to remain isolated to the degree that providing or receiving genetic or demographic support is limited. Land management has shaped the current distribution of red tree vole populations in the analysis area. Tree voles are overwhelmingly restricted to State and Federal lands, where existing management plans and policy either explicitly manage for red tree voles, or manage for habitat conditions suitable for the species. Federal land management practices of surveying and managing for tree voles, combined with large areas of land-use allocations where programmed timber harvest does not occur, should allow for maintenance of the species in all but perhaps the more isolated checkerboard blocks of ownership. Opportunities exist on State forest land to develop red tree vole habitat through their existing management plans and expand existing clusters on their ownership. Current management of lands under the Oregon Forest Practices Act is expected to continue to contribute to habitat removal and isolation of existing clusters of red tree voles. ii Red Tree Vole SSA, Version 1.0 October 1, 2019 Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... i Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures
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