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Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Technology Development and Investment Opportunities

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Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Technology Development and Investment Opportunities Lithium-ion battery supply chain technology development and investment opportunities Carnegie Mellon University – Battery Seminar June 2020 Vivas Kumar Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 1 Due to policy statements and strong public opinion trends, major automakers have committed over USD$300B towards actively developing battery electric vehicles Examples of major passenger car and light duty vehicle OEM EV Global policy statements by governments supporting EV adoption strategy announcements Total annual vehicle Norway and Netherlands: Proposal Canada: Target of 30% to end ICE sales by 2035, Germany production penetration of electric by 2030. Considerations for EU Italy: Target of 30% vehicle sales by 2030 Israel: wide ban by 2030 penetration of electric Laun- Planning at Chinese OEMs VW group plans Quebec targeting 100% Proposal ching least 20 EVs expected to comply to invest more vehicle sales by 2030 Toyota has set a sales to end ICE 12 EV by 2023 with 20% EV than $24bn in zero emissions by 2050 target of ~1m EVs and sales models penetration rate by zero-emission FCVs by 2030, by 2022 2025 vehicles by 2030. by 2030 investing >$13 billion Will develop 80 10- to develop and make EV models by 12mn batteries 2025. UK and France: Proposal Japan and to end Set target of two South Korea: Aiming to develop 8 EV ICE sales Planning to invest $11bn thirds of vehicle sales Target of 30% models by 2025, with 30 EV by 2030 by 2040 in EVs by 2022, and will penetration have 40 hybrid and full panned by 2030 of electric EV models vehicle sales 5-9mn Mexico: Target of India: by 2030 30% penetration Proposal of electric vehicle to end sales by 2030 ICE sales by 2030 Brazil: Target of 30% penetration China: of electric vehicle Target of 5% sales by 2030 penetration of electric 2022 2025 2030 vehicle sales by 2020, 20% by 2025 EV strategy timeline 2 Note: ICE - Internal Combustion Engine As a result, lithium-ion manufacturers are ramping up >2TWh capacity from 121 battery “megafactories”, the majority of which are expected in China Expected GWh battery cell manufacturing production through 2029 Total lithium ion battery megafactory capacity by region, 2029 (GWh) – major producers GWh 2029 GWh 2024 GWh 2019 2,224 2019 1,530 2024 2029 100 1,526 90 80 70 60 50 40 367 30 206 20 10 0 Global China Europe North America Others \ China will continue to dominate cell manufacturing with demand for European and US made cells out-stripping supply. This is especially the case for Tier 1 producers who may only have limited volumes available outside the large OEMs Note: Not all stated capacity is available in a given year as commissioning dates fall throughout the year and facilities take time 3 to ramp up This significant global battery cell capacity ramp-up will compound the continuing decline of $/kWh battery cost of production Best-in-class $/kWh for battery cell manufacturing (2014- 2014 is the year when meticulous cell price 2019) tracking across the industry was instituted 280 16% price decline per year on Cell-level cost reductions mostly average concentrated on: ▪ Cost management along materials supply chain (largest opportunity) ▪ Manufacturing efficiency improvements and large-scale production o Yield loss improvements during manufacturing process ~120-130 Pack-level cost reductions result from: ▪ Improved energy density of individual cells from chemistry evolution ▪ Improved cell density within packs from less volumetric intensity of interstitial 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2016 materials 4 Cathode materials are the largest $/kWh cost, and is the focus of cost reduction through materials management and manufacturing efficiency improvements ▪ Cathode is >50% of the total Major contributors to $/kWh cell cost (%) cost of producing battery cells ▪ Cost control is pushing 100% innovation and push to new chemistries 80% ▪ Depending on raw materials prices, 3 key metals contribute 60% ~50-65% of cathode manufacturing cost ▪ Lithium 40% ▪ Nickel ▪ 20% Cobalt ▪ Short of vertical integration, supply chain optionality and 0 Cathode Mechanical Anode Electrolyte Other Total security is key to realizing cost-downs in these materials 5 6 key trends shaping the lithium-ion battery cell industry 1 2 3 Western automotive Nickel-rich Cathode chemistry push towards cathode differentiation by higher quality chemistries application 4 5 6 Chinese control of Opportunities Pending global materials for supply chain supply/demand supply chain co-location imbalances 6 Market Trend #1 – While higher tier battery producers are preferred by Western automotive, lower tier battery suppliers will try to “level up” ▪ Higher likelihood of being used in Western automotive ▪ Longer supplier qualification timelines Tier 1 ▪ Higher material quality requirements ▪ More stringent spec tolerances ▪ Larger qualification sample requirements Tier 2 But, does not necessarily mean: • Trends in China are the same • More innovative Tier 3 • Better position to raise capital • First choice for Western automotive in perpetuity Product quality differentiation is the main reason that battery cells will not become “commoditized” like solar panels 7 Market Trend #2 - Nickel-rich cathode chemistries expected to capture larger market share as customers push for higher energy density, but LFP is a “dark horse” NCA holds while NCM varieties take the majority of the market NCM 111 NCM 523 NCM 622 NCM 811 NCA LCO LFP LMO 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2016 2017 2018 2023 2028 Lithium is the only element common to all of these chemistries 8 Market Trend #3 - Long-term, as industry shifts towards autonomous driving and EVs penetrate new geographies, cathode chemistries will differentiate by application Present Future – custom chemistries by application NCM NCA NCM811 NCM523 NCM622 LFP Standard battery fixed route, short- chemistry across all long-range vehicles medium-range distance driving; vehicles with fast acceleration; vehicles; everyday geography- premium product product specific (China) 9 Market Trend #4 – China dominates capacity in the upstream cathode and materials supply chain, and expected to continue to do so at least for the next decade Current lithium Current cobalt Current Current chemicals supply chemicals supply cathode supply nickel supply 38% 35% 49% 51% 48% 52% 62% 65% China Non China China Non China China Non China China Non China 10 Market Trend #5 – Western markets’ EV demand and governments’ push towards new job creation in advanced industries creates capacity co-location opportunities From – Globally Distributed Supply Chain To – Vertically Integrated For Cost Optimization Ni Ni Ni Ni Cell Co Cell NCA Co NCA prec Li Li Li NCA Li NCA prec Co Co NiCo NiCo Ni Ni Li Li Ni Li Li Ni Li Co Li Co General product flow towards Asia General product flow towards end markets 11 Market Trend #6 – The dislocation in timeline to build each portion of the supply chain could lead to multiple battery material shortages Example—Lithium chemicals demand/supply tonnes Approximate timeline to progress supply step (‘000) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 25 6,000 5 Mining 5,000 4,000 Unplanned Chemical 3 5 new supply 3,000 Processing 2,000 Cathode 2 3 Production Minimum Expected 1,000 2 Cell 1 0 Manufacturing 2017 2015 2031 2021 2019 2016 2018 2037 2027 2034 2024 2033 2035 2023 2025 2032 2022 2039 2029 2036 2026 2038 2028 2040 2030 2020 5 8 Demand Probable additional tonnes Application Secondary Supply Highly Probable additional tonnes Possible additional tonnes Operational supply 12 6 key trends shaping the lithium-ion battery cell industry 1 2 3 Western automotive Nickel-rich Cathode chemistry push towards cathode differentiation by higher quality chemistries application 4 5 6 Chinese control of Opportunities Pending global materials for supply chain supply/demand supply chain co-location imbalances 13 Deep Dive on Lithium Chemicals Industry 14 Lithium is plentifully available today from a geology standpoint… Lithium resource availability – major countries Canada Yearly Mine production: 0 <1M 60M Reserves: 2,300,000 (1.5%) China Yearly Mine production: 13,300 (6.9%) United States Reserves: 19,000,000 (12.7%) Yearly Mine production: 3,400 (1.8%) Reserves: 6,800,000 (4.6%) Australia Brazil Bolivia Yearly Mine production: 81,000 (42.1%) Reserves: 9,100,000 (6.1%) Yearly Mine production: 966 (0.5%) Yearly Mine production: 0 Reserves: 290,000 (0.19%) Reserves: 54,300,000 (36.4%) Argentina Chile Yearly Mine production: 22,937 (11.9%) Yearly Mine production: 70,600 (36.7%) Reserves: 12,100,000 (8.1%) Reserves: 45,300,000 (30.4%) 15 … but supply remains highly concentrated within a small number of regions… Lithium Raw Material Supply in 2019 Lithium Chemical Supply in 2019 2% 1% 4% 4% 9% 10% 10% Australia China Chile Chile 50% Argentina Argentina 55% China USA USA 27% Other Other 25% Total: 359,000 tonnes LCE Total: 338,000 tonnes LCE 16 … with a small number of Tier 1 suppliers supplying the Western battery industry Supply breakdown – 2018 (‘000s) 325 285 260 38 54 195 48 130 18 40 194 65 46 43 0 Tier 1 – Tier 1 – Tier 1 – Tianqi Tier 1 – Livent Tier 1 – SQM Total Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Total Albemarle Ganfeng Lithium Primary production assets1 2 Chemicals conversion assets 17 1. Current production 2. Currently ramping up production asset in Western Australia Brine and spodumene are the two most prolific sources of material today, although specific forms of clay have potential to enter the supply chain in the future Brine ponds – SQM, Chile Spodumene mine – Greenbushes, Australia 18 Carbonate and hydroxide, the two most common forms of lithium
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