DOCSLIB.ORG

Census 2018 Is an Organisational Debacle, a Leadership Debacle, an Equity Debacle and a Transparency Debacle

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Census 2018 Is an Organisational Debacle, a Leadership Debacle, an Equity Debacle and a Transparency Debacle Census 2018 is an organisational debacle, a leadership debacle, an equity debacle and a transparency debacle. Census 2018 A multi-fold debacle Dr. Jian Yang National Spokesperson for Statistics 2 May 2019 Executive summary The importance of census cannot be overstated. Census data is used extensively by a wide range of stakeholders. Census 2018 has not achieved universality, comprehensiveness and simultaneity. The decision to move the census online was a sound decision domestically and internationally and the digital-first census is likely to be here to stay. The 2018 Census was never underfunded. Statistics NZ (Stats NZ) underspent in the census year. Census 2018 is a preventable organisational debacle. Stats NZ failed at crucial stages surrounding Census Day. The Government failed to lead at the crucial stages. The Minister of Statistics showed little interest in Census 2018. Census 2018 is an equity debacle and an enormous blow to the Government’s priority of achieving equity and addressing wellbeing. Census 2018 is also a transparency debacle as Stats NZ consistently refused to answer this author’s questions about the partial response rate and its change of the definition of response. The Government should consider moving the next census forward. 1 Contents Executive summary .................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 The importance of census .......................................................................................... 3 The scale of the problem ............................................................................................ 4 Was digital-first census a wrong decision? ................................................................. 6 Was Census 2018 underfunded? ............................................................................... 9 A multi-fold debacle .................................................................................................. 10 An organisational debacle ..................................................................................... 10 A leadership debacle ............................................................................................ 15 An equity debacle ................................................................................................. 16 A transparency debacle ........................................................................................ 16 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 18 Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 19 2 Introduction It is now clear that the 2018 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings (Census 2018) is a debacle. With a historically low response rate of approx. 90 percent and a partial response rate of five percent, over 700,000 or one in seven New Zealanders either did not partake in the Census at all or did not fully complete the Census. Stats NZ has postponed the first release of the census data twice. It initially announced that it would have to postpone its first release of Census 2018 data from October 2018 to March 2019. Then, on 27 November 2018, it said that it would not be able to say when the first release would be until April 2019. Finally, on 29 April 2019, New Zealanders were told that the first release of 2018 Census data would be on 23 September 2019 – almost a year after the first deadline. The prolonged delay of the first release of the census data indicates that the problem is worse than we might have thought. Stats NZ claims that it now has records for approximately 4.7 million people in the census dataset. However, only 89 percent of the total number of records come from 2018 Census forms. The other 11 percent comes from other government data. The quality of this data is questionable. What is more, the data will be already outdated when it is finally released and will have missed the 2019 Budget. How did all this happen? The Labour-led Government, including the Prime Minister and the Minister for Statistics, has so far not accepted any responsibility other than to blame the previous National Government. Stats NZ did acknowledge that it had made mistakes. It has now appointed independent reviewers reporting to the Chief Statistician to conduct an independent review and the report is expected to be published in July 2019. As the Opposition’s Spokesperson for Statistics, this author feels it imperative to make an effort to investigate the causes of the debacle. This report is an attempt to shed some light on the debacle of Census 2018. The importance of census The importance of census cannot be overstated. Census is even more important in New Zealand than some other countries, because there is no direct measure of internal migration in New Zealand. The accuracy of population statistics decreases rather rapidly in New Zealand, due to the high mobility of New Zealand’s population. For instance, over half of New Zealand’s population changed residence between the 2001 and 2006 censuses.1 1 Statistics New Zealand, Transforming the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings: Issues, options, and strategy (2012), p. 8. 3 Census is our only source of detailed socio-economic information about local communities and small population groups, such as Māori, iwi, migrants, children, older people and single-parent families. No other sources could provide reliable and consistent information about the socio-economic characteristics of these communities and groups, for instance, ethnicity, religion, family, education, occupation, and housing. Census data is used extensively by a wide range of stakeholders, including central and local government, businesses, academics and researchers, non-profit organisations, international bodies, community groups, iwi, and the general public. As emphasised by the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis at the University of Waikato: Censuses form a critical component in processes of planning for, and responding to, issues that are fundamental to political participation and social and economic wellbeing: electoral boundaries, the planning of health, education and other social services, and the work of researchers seeking to address social, economic and environmental challenges.2 Stats NZ has grouped the uses of census data into the following broad categories: adjusting electoral boundaries for Parliament and determining the number of general and Māori electorate seats reviewing local government representation arrangements allocating resources and targeting investment by government costing government programmes monitoring outcomes of small populations informing social and market research.3 The scale of the problem While many had observed that Census 2018 was running into trouble well before Census Day of 6 March 2018, few people had realised that the scale of the problem would be so staggering. Stats NZ announced on 1 June 2018 that the response rate for Census 2018 was 90 percent, which was a 4.5 percent drop from Census 2013. Census 2018’s 90 percent and Census 2013’s 94.5 percent are comparable as both are response rates before the Census Coverage Survey (often referred to as the Post-Enumeration Survey or PES).4 People have been alarmed by the drop of 4.5 percent in the Census response rate. The reality is actually much worse. 2 Science Media Centre, Census delays and missing data – Expert Reaction, 11 April 2019. 3 Statistics New Zealand, Transforming the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings Issues: options, and strategy (2012), p. 9. 4 The 2013 Census response rate after PES was 92.9 percent, compared with 94.8 percent in 2006, 95 percent in 2001 and 95.6 percent in 1996. 4 Stats NZ uses a “new measure” or new definition of census response in Census 2018, which “will include each individual where the census forms provided us with answers to two or more of the following fields: name, date of birth, meshblock.”5 This means a person who is listed on a census dwelling form, but did not submit a census individual form, will be counted as a response, as name and meshblock are already included in the census dwelling form. This is a drastic change from the definition/measure of census response in the past. In previous censuses, a person who was listed on a dwelling form, but did not submit an individual form, was considered a non-response. If the past definition/measure of response were applied to Census 2018, the response rate of Census 2018 would drop to 85 percent. This is because the whole five percent “partial responses” in Census 2018 refer to “individuals for whom Stats NZ did not receive an individual form, but who were listed on the paper dwelling form or online household summary form.” 6 These people would have been counted as non- responses in previous censuses. In its “Quick guide to the 2018 Census” released on 29 April 2019, Stats NZ states that there are two measures of census response, the “current measure” and “new measure”. This can be confusing to the public. The “current measure” is actually the past measure and the “new measure” is the current measure.7 Stats NZ is now using other government data to fill the gaps for each individual who did not complete an individual form. However, government data cannot replace the census individual form, at least
Load more

Recommended publications
  • RCS Demographics V2.0 Codebook
    Religious Characteristics of States Dataset Project Demographics, version 2.0 (RCS-Dem 2.0) CODE BOOK Davis Brown Non-Resident Fellow Baylor University Institute for Studies of Religion [email protected] Acknowledgements I would like to thank the following persons for their assistance, without which this project could not have been completed. First and foremost, my co-principal investigator, Patrick James. Among faculty and researchers, I thank Brian Bergstrom, Peter W. Brierley, Peter Crossing, Abe Gootzeit, Todd Johnson, Barry Sang, and Sanford Silverburg. I also thank the library staffs of the following institutions: Assembly of God Theological Seminary, Catawba College, Maryville University of St. Louis, St. Louis Community College System, St. Louis Public Library, University of Southern California, United States Air Force Academy, University of Virginia, and Washington University in St. Louis. Last but definitely not least, I thank the following research assistants: Nolan Anderson, Daniel Badock, Rebekah Bates, Matt Breda, Walker Brown, Marie Cormier, George Duarte, Dave Ebner, Eboni “Nola” Haynes, Thomas Herring, and Brian Knafou. - 1 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 Citation 3 Updates 3 Territorial and Temporal Coverage 4 Regional Coverage 4 Religions Covered 4 Majority and Supermajority Religions 6 Table of Variables 7 Sources, Methods, and Documentation 22 Appendix A: Territorial Coverage by Country 26 Double-Counted Countries 61 Appendix B: Territorial Coverage by UN Region 62 Appendix C: Taxonomy of Religions 67 References 74 - 2 - Introduction The Religious Characteristics of States Dataset (RCS) was created to fulfill the unmet need for a dataset on the religious dimensions of countries of the world, with the state-year as the unit of observation.
    [Show full text]
  • Families and Whānau Status Report 2018
    Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit Families and Whānau Status Report Families 2018 Families and Whānau Status Report 2018 The Families Commission operates under the name Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit (Superu) Our purpose The purpose of the Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit (Superu) was to increase the use of evidence by people across the social sector so that they could make better decisions – about funding, policies and services – to improve the lives of New Zealanders and New Zealand’s communities, families and whānau. Due to Superu’s disestablishment on 1 July 2018, the families and whānau work programme is now managed by the Ministry of Social Development (MSD). This report was prepared by MSD under delegation from Superu. Access to the data used in this report was provided by Statistics New Zealand under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confi dentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented in this report are the work of the authors, not Statistics NZ. The results in the family wellbeing section of this report are not offi cial statistics. They have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics NZ. The opinions, fi ndings, recommendations and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the authors, not Statistics NZ. Access to the anonymised data used in this study was provided by Statistics NZ in accordance with security and confi dentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see data about a particular person, household, business or organisation, and the results in this report have been confi dentialised to protect these groups from identifi cation.
    [Show full text]
  • The Politics of Presence: Political Representation and New Zealand’S Asian Members of Parliament
    THE POLITICS OF PRESENCE: POLITICAL REPRESENTATION AND NEW ZEALAND’S ASIAN MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT By Seonah Choi A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science at Victoria University of Wellington 2014 2 Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................. 3 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... 4 List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... 5 Definitions ............................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter I: Introduction .......................................................................................................... 8 Chapter II: Literature Review .............................................................................................. 11 2.1 Representative Democracy ........................................................................................ 11 2.2 Theories of Political Representation .......................................................................... 12 2.3 Theories of Minority Representation ......................................................................... 27 2.4 Formulating a Framework ........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Except Where Specific Reference Is Made in the Main Text of the Thesis
    FACULTY OF SCIENCE Te Wahanga Putaiao FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Te Wahanga Ahunui Pūkaha STATEMENT OF AUTHORSHIP Except where specific reference is made in the main text of the thesis, this thesis contains no material extracted in whole or in part from a thesis, dissertation or research paper presented by me for another degree or diploma. No other person’s work (published or unpublished) has been used without due acknowledgement in the main text of the thesis. This thesis has not been submitted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any other tertiary institution. Full Name: Hamish Richmond Laurence Howard Signature: Date: 31/07/20 DO HUMAN VALUES PREDICT PERCEPTIONS, ATTITUDES & BEHAVIOURS TOWARDS THE NEW ZEALAND MARINE ENVIRONMENT? HAMISH R. L. HOWARD A thesis submitted to Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Science in Society) 2021 Whakataukī “He ika kai ake i raro, he rāpaki ake i raro” [As a fish nibbles from below, so an ascent begins from the bottom] —Mead & Grove, 2004, p. 73 i Abstract Human values predict perceptions, attitudes and behaviours towards the NZ marine environment. A confidential online survey (The New Zealand Marine Values Survey) was completed by 1,567 NZ citizens and residents in September and October of 2019. Respondents answered a variety of questions relating to demographic variables, PABs (perceptions, attitudes and behaviours) towards the NZ marine environment, and psychographic variables. Human values (values), as conceptualised and operationalised in the Theory of Basic Human Values by social psychologist and cross-cultural researcher Shalom H.
    [Show full text]
  • State Patriotism by Chen Weijian Oct 2018
    State patriotism by Chen Weijian (translation by Daisy Lee) Chen Weijian is New Zealand-based editor-in-chief of the political magazine Beijing Spring 4 June 1989 was a bloody day that cannot be erased in Chinese history. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) opened fire on unarmed students whose blood stained Tiananmen Square. 29 years later, on the same day, a New Zealand overseas Chinese leader, former PLA member Zhang Yikun, received the New Zealand Order of Merit. On September 12th, Zhang Yikun was formally honoured at Government House. The news was even covered by China's CCTV: a star in the overseas Chinese community was on the rise. But while awaiting his spectacular future, Zhang Yikun this month burst into public view in New Zealand following his undeclared $100,000 donation to National Party. The question of what political donations are legal and illegal is a matter for the relevant authorities. What I want to talk about is Zhang Yikun’s political background in China and the role he has been effectively playing in New Zealand as a "patriotic overseas Chinese" leader. In his motherland, China, Zhang Yikun has held quite a few resounding political titles which distinguish him from all the other community leaders of the CCP’s United Front organisations in New Zealand. In 2012, Zhang was elected as the vice chairman of Hainan Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce. The website’s home page says the Federation is a group of people’s organisations and chambers of commerce under the leadership of the CCP.
    [Show full text]
  • Cultural Engagement- Canterbury Wellbeing Index
    He Tohu Ora: Cultural engagement Downloaded from https://www.canterburywellbeing.org.nz/he-tohu-ora/#link-cultural-engagement on 30/09/2021 12:23 AM Cultural identity is strengthened when there is access to not only cultural heritage but also opportunities for cultural engagement, such as speaking te reo Māori or taking part in kapa haka [5]. Kapa haka, for example, has been identified as having strong links to culture and Māori identity, as well as providing a social, strengths-based environment for rangatahi (youth) [25]. Te Kupenga 2013 asked respondents how important it was to be involved in things to do with Māori culture. There were five response options, ranging from very important to not at all important [12]. This indicator presents the proportion of respondents who reported it was quite/very important to be engaged in Māori culture. In 2013, just under a third (32.4%) of respondents from Canterbury reported it was quite/very important being engaged in Māori culture. The proportion was lowest for Canterbury, followed by the rest of the South Island (38.1%), and New Zealand overall (46.3%). Data Sources Source: Statistics New Zealand. Survey/data set: Te Kupenga 2013. Access publicly available data from the Statistics New Zealand website www.archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/people_and_communities/maori/te-kupenga.aspx Source data frequency: Updated in 2018 and then 10-yearly. Metadata for this indicator is available at https://www.canterburywellbeing.org.nz/index-data © Crown copyright 2021 Printed on: 30/09/2021 Page: 1/3 REFERENCES This is the full reference list for He Tohu Ora.
    [Show full text]
  • Worth the Wait -Navigating the 2018 New Zealand Census
    7 8 9 4 5 6 x _ 1 2 3 0 = + Worth the wait A simple guide to navigating the 2018 New Zealand Census April 2019 Introduction 3 Context History of the Census – a global tradition 4 History of the Census – New Zealand 5 Do all countries undertake a Census? 5 Can we trust Census data? 6 How councils use Census data 7 What happened with the New Zealand 2018 Census? Contents Why was the response rate to the 2018 Census so low? 8 What is Stats NZ doing to get the Census data sorted? 8 Changes to the 2018 Census Which questions have been changed? 10 Changes to geography – SA1 and SA2s 16 Meshblocks 17 SA1 geography (Statistical area 1) 17 SA2 geography (Statistical area 2) 17 Urban rural areas 18 Telling a change over time story Comparing old and new boundaries 19 How .id can help 19 About .id The .id community suite 21 profile.id 21 atlas.id 21 forecast.id 22 The 2018 Census data will be released later this year. It’s a big deal because Census data is a rich source of socio-demographic and socio-economic information at a small area, territorial, regional and national level. The 2018 Census also ushered in a number of changes to the questions asked, the geography collected for, and ultimately to the data sources (as a consequence of patchy response rates). This eBook is intended as a resource for planners and strategists to better understand the implications of these changes. Introduction 3 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Before discussing the nuts and bolts of Census changes, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider the history of our New Zealand Census in an international context, and the profound value of Census data.
    [Show full text]
  • National Party Spokesperson Allocations July 2020
    National Party Spokesperson Allocations July 2020 Spokesperson for Todd Muller Small Business Leader National Security Hon Nikki Kaye Education Deputy Leader Sport and Recreation Women Hon Amy Adams Covid-19 Recovery Drug Reform Hon Judith Collins Economic Development Regional Development Shadow Attorney-General Pike River Re-entry Hon Paul Goldsmith Finance Earthquake Commission Hon Gerry Brownlee Disarmament GCSB NZSIS Shadow Leader of House Hon Michael Woodhouse Health Deputy Shadow Leader of the House Associate Finance Hon Louise Upston Social Development Social Investment Hon Mark Mitchell Justice Defence Hon Scott Simpson Environment Climate Change Planning (RMA reform) Hon Todd McClay Trade Tourism Chris Bishop Infrastructure Transport Shane Reti Tertiary Skills and Employment Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Associate Health Associate Drug Reform Nicola Willis Housing and Urban Development Early Childhood Education Hon Jacqui Dean Conservation Hon David Bennett Agriculture Hon Simon Bridges Foreign Affairs Melissa Lee Broadcasting Communications and Digital Media Data and Cybersecurity Andrew Bayly Revenue Commerce State Owned Enterprises Associate Finance Hon Alfred Ngaro Pacific Peoples Community and Voluntary Children and Disability Issues Barbara Kuriger Senior Whip Food Safety Rural Communities Jonathan Young Energy & Resources Arts Culture and Heritage Hon Tim MacIndoe ACC Seniors Civil Defence Hon Nick Smith State Services Electoral Law Reform Associate Covid-19 Recovery Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Ethnic Communities Matt Doocey
    [Show full text]
  • New Analytics Tools for Workload Planning for the 2018 New Zealand Census
    Centre for eResearch New analytics tools for workload planning for the 2018 New Zealand Census Assoc Professor Andrew Mason, Engineering Science, the University of Auckland. Geoff Leyland, Incremental Ltd. Chris Hodgins, John Crequer Craig Lange, Hayley Gargiulo, Philippa Sowman and Chris Deake, Statistics New Zealand Background New Zealand’s next census will take place in March 2018. The census is an official count of all the people and dwellings in New Zealand, and will involve around two-and-a- half-thousand field officers and cover almost two million households. This is a large field operation with officers observing or visiting every dwelling in the country at least once. The operation confirms the locations of known dwellings and identifies new ones to ensure that Statistics New Zealand’s address list is Meshblocks in the Auckland Region up-to-date. New Zealand is divided into around 53,000 areas called “meshblocks”. Each meshblock contains roughly the same number of dwellings. The census involves a field officer visiting every dwelling in each meshblock. Additional work may include following up with non-respondents after the census day. For the first time in New Zealand, the census will use the internet as the primary mode of response. The operation will cover the same geographical area as in previous censuses, but with fewer field officers working across the country. Fieldwork has already begun for the 2018 Census. Over 80% of dwellings were visited between June and August 2017 by a team of over two hundred field officers as part of an operation called “Address Canvassing”. By the time the census gets underway in March 2018, every dwelling in the country will have been observed or visited by one of the teams of field officers, building the BUILDING 302,LEVEL 5, ROOM 585 23 SYMONDS STREET AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND 1 WWW.ERESEARCH.AUCKLAND.AC.NZ Centre for eResearch most up-to-date record of where people in New Zealand live.
    [Show full text]
  • New Zealand National Party Shadow Ministry
    Barton Deakin Brief: New Zealand National Party Opposition Team 30 November 2018 On Thursday, 2 November 2017, New Zealand National Party Leader and Opposition Leader the Rt. Hon. Bill English announced his Opposition team in the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. Under a Coalition with New Zealand First, the New Zealand Labour Party has formed Government, however National remains to be the largest party in Parliament. This Barton Deakin Brief details the National Party Opposition team. Name Spokesperson for HON SIMON BRIDGES National Security & Intelligence LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION HON PAULA BENNETT Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment DEPUTY LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION Women Social Investment & Social Services HON AMY ADAMS Finance HON JUDITH COLLINS Housing & Urban Development Infrastructure Planning (RMA Reform) HON TODD MCCLAY Foreign Affairs & Trade Tourism HON MARK MITCHELL Justice Defence Disarmament HON PAUL GOLDSMITH Transport Economic & Regional Development Associate spokesperson for Arts, Culture & Heritage HON NIKKI KAYE Education Sport & Recreation HON GERRY BROWNLEE Shadow Leader of the House GCSB & NZSIS Americas Cup HON NATHAN GUY Agriculture Biosecurity Food Safety HON MICHAEL WOODHOUSE Deputy Shadow Leader of the House Health Immigration HON LOUISE UPSTON Social Development HON ALFRED NGARO Children Community & Voluntary Centre Pacific Peoples HON CHRISTOPHER FINLAYSON QC Shadow Attorney General Barton Deakin Pty Ltd Ground Floor, 41 The Terrace/Level 3, 114 Lambton Quay P: +64 4 472 9158 | www.bartondeakin.com.au Crown-Maori
    [Show full text]
  • Religion Distinctiveness*
    RAI data Religion distinctiveness* Country profiles *This document provides data production information for the RAI- Rokkan dataset. Last edited on October 7, 2020 Compiled by Gary Marks with research assistance by Noah Dasanaike Liesbet Hooghe and Gary Marks (2016). Community, Scale and Regional Governance: A Postfunctionalist Theory of Governance, Vol. II. Oxford: OUP. Sarah Shair-Rosenfield, Arjan H. Schakel, Sara Niedzwiecki, Gary Marks, Liesbet Hooghe, Sandra Chapman-Osterkatz (2021). “Language difference and Regional Authority.” Regional and Federal Studies, Vol. 31. DOI: 10.1080/13597566.2020.1831476 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 5 Albania ........................................................................................................................... 6 Argentina ....................................................................................................................... 9 Australia ...................................................................................................................... 12 Austria .......................................................................................................................... 14 Bahamas ....................................................................................................................... 16 Bangladesh ................................................................................................................... 17 Barbados .....................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Methods and Procedures for International Social Survey
    1 Methods and procedures for International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) 2019 Social Inequality V New Zealand Martin von Randow Barry Milne COMPASS Research Centre November 2020 2 This report summarises the sampling procedures for the New Zealand ISSP survey for 2019 (social inequality), conducted early in 2020. We used results from the New Zealand ISSP survey for 2018 to estimate response numbers for ethnicity, gender and age, and inform our stratification methodology. The methods report for that survey is available at http://tinyurl.com/compass-issp, along with more information about our work on ISSP surveys. We added an eldest age group (>75 years), as the age range for the 2018 survey was capped at age 75. Other than that, we used the same stratum divisions as in 2018. There were 40 strata: 4 ‘ethnic’ (Māori descent, high Pacific geographical meshblocks, high Asian geographical meshblocks, remainder) × 2 gender (male, female) × 5 age (18–30, 31–45, 46–60, 61–75, 76+). Sampling from the New Zealand Electoral Rolls, we had a direct Māori descent indicator, but nothing for any other ethnicity. We identified “high Pacific” and “high Asian” meshblocks using published ethnicity counts for each geographical meshblock, the smallest unit measured by Statistics NZ, as at the 2013 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings. Data from the 2018 Census were not available at the time of sampling. In order to have sufficient numbers to sample in every stratum, we described “High Pacific” meshblocks as those where Pacific ethnicities made up at least 15% of the population, and “High Asian” meshblocks as those where Asian ethnicities made up at least 25%.
    [Show full text]