Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 ALEKSANDR RUDKEVICH

SUMMARY

Dr. Rudkevich, is a Director of the Modeling Group at Tabors Caramanis & Associates. Prior to that, he was a Senior Consultant at TCA. He has over 20 years of experience in energy , regulatory policy and strategic planning. His primary area of expertise is creating and applying operations research techniques to, and developing decision support tools for, forecasting, planning and optimization. At TCA, Dr. Rudkevich directs projects and oversees development, support and implementation of the methodology and tools for the quantitative analyses of restructured power industry including electricity and fuel price projections, pricing strategies, analyses of market power and market power mitigation and valuation of generation assets.

Prior to joining TCA in 1998, Dr. Rudkevich was a Senior Scientist at Tellus Institute where he analyzed economic, policy and technical issues related to natural gas and electric industry resource planning, market segmentation, load forecasting, price projections, rate making, and regulatory reform. Dr. Rudkevich also designed and directed the development of various modeling tools and databases.

Dr. Rudkevich has also served as a consultant on Soviet oil and natural gas industry planning, supply, and pricing issues at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). He assisted CERA in establishing an energy program and consulting practice in the former Soviet Union.

Prior to 1990, Dr. Rudkevich was a Senior Researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences in Moscow where he was a member of the research team that developed the USSR Long-term Energy Program in 1986- 87.

Dr. Rudkevich has testified extensively before state and federal energy regulatory agencies and has written articles for the Energy Journal, Electricity Journal, and Energy Exploration & Exploitation. He has presented papers at national and international conferences organized by IAEE, INFORMS, IGT, GRI, and NARUC.

EDUCATION

Ph.D., Energy Economics and , Siberian Energy Institute of Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, USSR, 1988 Ph.D. program completed without dissertation, System Analysis and Operations Research, Center of Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR, 1986 M.S. (with distinction), Applied Mathematics, Moscow Institute of Oil and Gas, USSR, 1978.

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9

EXPERIENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Tabors Caramanis & Associates (TCA), Cambridge, MA, 1998 – December 2002: Senior Consultant; January 2003 – present: Director, Modeling Group. Manages projects and directs analyses of economic, policy and technical issues related to the electric and natural gas industry deregulation, market design, market power monitoring and design of mitigation measures, fuel price forecasting, of electricity prices in deregulated markets in various regions of the U.S. Dr. Rudkevich is a principal designer of the TCA COMPEL model developed under the Small Business grant from the National Science Foundation.

Tellus Institute, Boston, MA, 1991-1998, Senior Scientist, Managed projects and directs analyses of economic and technical issues related to the electric and natural gas industry planning, forecasting, market segmentation, rate-making, and regulatory reform in the United States and internationally. Directed the development of modeling tools and databases including a game theoretical model of strategic behavior of generation owners in competitive electricity markets. Was a principal designer of a pragmatic multi-sector CGE model of the US economy incorporating diffusion of energy conservation and the productive role of public infrastructure. The model was developed under the grant from the US Environmental Protection Agency. Designed and developed GasPlan-MR. a multi-region natural gas supply planning and optimization model. The model was used in a number of regulatory cases involving utilities in the US and Canada and for modeling the natural gas industry of Bangladesh.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), Cambridge, MA, 1990-1991, Research Associate, Consultant on Soviet oil and natural gas planning, supply, and pricing issues. Assisted CERA in establishing its former Soviet Union/Russian energy program and consulting practice.

Energy Research Institute of Academy of Sciences, Moscow, USSR, 1986-1989, Senior Researcher, Developed mathematical methods and models for long-term energy planning and analysis. Consulted on utilization of mathematical models, methods and software.

National Institute for Oil and Gas Economics and Management, Moscow, 1978- 1985, Research Analyst, Econometric modeling, statistical analysis, design, development, and implementation of various optimization and simulation software.

FIELDS OF EXPERTISE

§ Simulation modeling of energy markets, design and development of decision-support methods and software § Energy supply planning and regulation

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 § Market power analyses

MAJOR PROJECTS

Simulation modeling of energy markets design and development of decision-support methods and software

Dr. Rudkevich is a manager and principal designer of various innovative simulation tools including COMPEL, a Model for Simulating Strategic Behavior in Competitive Power Generation Markets, the project sponsored by the National Science Foundation under the Small Business Innovations Research grant.

For several TCA clients Dr. Rudkevich conducted simulation analyses of the potential impact of strategic behavior on electricity prices in NEPOOL, NYPP, PJM, ERCOT, Midwestern regions of the US and in the of El Salvador. All projects were conducted with the use of COMPEL.

For several TCA clients, Dr. Rudkevich designed and conducted a series of statistical analyses of location-based market prices in NEPOOL, NYPP, PJM, WSCC and ERCOT.

Dr. Rudkevich developed the methodology and designed software tools for the quantitative modeling of electric price volatility, real option based valuation of generation and transmission assets, and portfolio optimization of Transmission Congestion Contracts (TCCs).

At Tellus, Dr. Rudkevich designed, developed and applied GasPlan-MR, a multi- region gas supply planning and optimization model. Applications of this model include an optimization of natural gas production and transmission in Bangladesh, a gas Integrated Resource Planning strategy study for Consumers Gas, and assessments of avoided costs of several utilities in the United States.

Dr. Rudkevich was a principal designer of Tellus’ Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for assessing energy conservation policy measures. The model was developed at Tellus Institute under a contract with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The novelty features of this model include the productive role of public infrastructure and accounting for the productivity of costs of saved energy.

ECO, a software tool developed at Tellus Institute for assessing the cost and benefit of electric and natural gas efficiency measures and technologies from various perspectives.

A spreadsheet-based model for statistical analysis of day-ahead gas consumption forecast error, design of balancing services, and allocation of balancing costs. The model was used to analyze balancing costs of several US natural gas utilities

TABORS CARAMANIS & ASSOCIATES: ALEKSANDR RUDKEVICH 3

Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 including Arkla, Inc., Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Questar Gas Company, Public Service of Oklahoma, PG Energy, and Peoples Natural Gas Company.

At the Energy Research Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Dr. Rudkevich was instrumental in designing and developing OCTOPUS, the long-term least-cost planning and optimization system for the hydrocarbon sector of the USSR energy complex. The model is similar to the Oil and Gas Production Module of the National System used by the US Department of Energy.

At the National Research Institute for Oil and Gas Economics and Management, Dr. Rudkevich developed the SIFON model for the USSR Oil Ministry. SIFON is a dynamic regional input/output model of the USSR oil producing industry. The USSR Oil Ministry used SIFON to assess the reliability of quarterly, annual, and five-year oil production targets in all regional oil-producing divisions (NGDUs) of the USSR. The model was also used directly for decision support and planning purposes in Orenburgneftegaz and Noyabrskneftegaz. For designing and developing this model, Dr. Rudkevich was awarded a Silver Medal of the USSR Exhibition of Economic Achievements (1984).

Energy supply planning and regulation

In 1999-2000 Dr. Rudkevich has been involved in the World Bank sponsored project as a consultant to the Russian Ministry of Fuel and Energy. His consulting activities include development of the restructuring plan for Russian natural gas distribution sector and design of key principles of open access to the Russian natural gas pipeline network and analysis of market power issues.

Dr. Rudkevich has been involved in utility unbundling and deregulation projects in a variety of cases regarding natural gas and electric distribution companies in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.

Dr. Rudkevich studied utility natural gas supply strategies, analyzed utilities’ performance-based rate-making practices, developed econometric and end use natural gas load forecasts, developed various fuel price projections, and addressed a variety of economic, policy, and technical issues in a number of state and federal regulatory proceedings. He has experience in analyzing natural gas and electric utility issues in a number of states, including Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Ontario, Canada. Selected specific projects include:

§ Development of short-term and long-term forecasts of fuel prices for all regions of the United States and Canada to support TCA of electric markets for various clients.

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 § Evaluation of the economics of the 2 Bcf LNG facility Granite State Transmission Company proposed to construct in Wells, Maine vis-à-vis other alternatives involving two major pipeline projects -- Portland Natural Gas Transmission Systems and Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline. § Expert assistance and training in natural gas supply modeling and strategic planning to the Staff of the Planning Commission of Bangladesh. § Analysis of planning approaches and purchasing practices used by the Public Service Company of Oklahoma to fuel its gas-fired power plants. § End-use analysis of the potential for naturals gas use in the State of Florida. § Projection of fuel prices in the State of Vermont. Market power analyses

Dr. Rudkevich contributed to the literature on the theoretical analysis of market power in electricity by using game-theoretical methods and developed simulation models based on this theory.

He applied these models for the direct analysis of market power. He conducted simulation analyses and testified on the ability of major generation owners to exercise market power through strategic bidding and capacity withholding. Markets analyzed by Dr. Rudkevich include NEPOOL, Northern Maine, NYPP, PJM, Nevada, Midwestern regions of the US, Eastern Colorado, ERCOT and El Salvador.

Dr. Rudkevich assisted TCA clients in reviewing the market power mitigation plan developed for the California market.

Dr. Rudkevich assisted TCA clients in reviewing and developing comments regarding the design of market power mitigation plan in the New York.

While at Tellus Institute, Dr. Rudkevich assisted NASUCA in preparing comments to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission “Use of Computer Simulation Models to Analyze Market Power in Electricity Markets” in FERC Docket No. PL98-6-000.

Dr. Rudkevich co-authored Tellus Institutes’ comments to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission “Use of Computer Simulation Models to Analyze Market Power in Electricity Markets” in FERC Docket No. PL98-6-000.

TESTIMONY

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Docket Nos. EL02-114-000, EL02-115- 001, March 26, 2003. Supplemental Direct Testimony of Richard D. Tabors and Aleksandr Rudkevich and on behalf of Portland General Electric Company. Key issue: quantitative analysis of Enron’s “Death Star” trading strategy.

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Docket Nos. ER01-3115-000, ER01- 1385-001, EL01-45-001, April 23, 2002. “Re: New York ISO Comprehensive Market Power Mitigation Filing at FERC.” Affidavit on behalf of KeySpan- Ravenswood, Inc.

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Docket No. EL02-59-000. February 15, 2002. “Market Power Mitigation Measures in the in-City ICAP Market in New York.” A Joint Affidavit of Aleksandr Rudkevich and Narasimha D. Rao on Behalf of KeySpan-Ravenswood, Inc.

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Docket No. EC01-128. July 18, 2001. “Market Power Study for Duke Energy North America.” A Joint Affidavit of Judith Cardell and Aleksandr Rudkevich on behalf of Duke Energy North America, LLP.

Utah Public Service Commission, Docket No.: 99-057-20, June 2000, In the Matter of the Application of the Questar Gas Company for a General Increase in Rates and Charges. Analysis of QGC balancing rates.

Maine Public Utilities Commission, Docket No.: 98-584, November 1998, Petition of Maine Public Service Company Utilities for Authorization of Sale of Generating Assets. Market Power Analysis, Part II.

Maine Public Utilities Commission, Docket No.: 98-584, October 1998, Petition of Maine Public Service Company Utilities for Authorization of Sale of Generating Assets. Market Power Analysis, Part I.

Michigan Public Service Commission, Docket No.: U-11225R, September 1998, Reconciliation of Consumers Energy Company’s Gas Cost Recovery Costs and Revenues for the GCR Period April 1997 through March 1998

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Docket No.: CP96-610-000, April 1998, Review of the analysis of peaking supply options filed by Northern Utilities to support Granite State Gas Transmission Company's request for a certificate to construct and operate a 2 Bcf LNG facility in Wells, ME.

New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission, Docket No.: DE97-251, March 1998, Analysis of the Potential Impact of Strategic Behavior on Market Power in the NEPOOL Generation Market.

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket Nos.: R-00973896 and A- 00122500F0007, May 1997, Review of Peoples Natural Gas Company’s 1997 1307(f) filing, its proposal to transfer its producing assets to CNG, Producing Company and its Proposed Migration Rider.

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket No.: R-00963648, July 1996, Review of section 1307(f) Purchased Gas Adjustment filing for 1996 submitted by

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 PG Energy, Inc. and report on the reasonableness of purchased gas demand costs that PGE recovers from its firm sales customers. Surrebuttal testimony in above docket.

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket Nos.: R-00953537C001 and R- 00953537C002, May 1996, Review of filing by Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania of a tariff supplement to revise its charges for banking and balancing services.

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket No.: R-00963583, May 1996, In the Matter of Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Inc. Annual Purchased Gas Adjustment Pursuant to Section 1307(f) of Title 66 of the Public Utility Code of Pennsylvania Surrebuttal testimony in the above docket.

Maine Public Utilities Commission, Docket Nos.: 95-480 and 95-481, Proposed Precedent Agreement between Northern Utilities, Inc. and Granite State Gas Transmission, Inc. for LNG Storage Service (95-480); and PNGTS for Transportation Service (95-481).

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket No.: R-00953380, July 1995 and August 1995, Review of Section 1307(f) Purchased Gas Adjustment filing for 1995 submitted by Pennsylvania Gas and Water Company; Supplemental Direct testimony in above docket; Surrebuttal testimony in above docket.

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket No.: R-953316, May 1995 and June 1995, Review of Section 1307(f) Purchased Gas Adjustment filing for 1995 submitted by Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, Inc. Surrebuttal testimony in above docket.

Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Docket No.: R-943207, March 1995, Review of Section 1307(f) Purchased Gas Adjustment filing for 1995 submitted by National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation.

PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS

“Supply Function Equilibrium: Theory and Applications.” Proceedings of the 36th Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences, January 2003

“RTO West Cost-Benefit Study,” Final Report Presented to RTO West Filing Utilities, March 11, 2002 (co-author)

“On the ‘Pay Bid’ Payment Rule in Electricity Markets.” A Submission to the Blue Ribbon Panel on Market Rules of the California Power Exchange. TCA paper, December 8, 2000.

“Market Power Study of the Wholesale Electricity Market of El Salvador.” TCA report Prepared for the Government of El Salvador. December 8, 2000 (co- author).

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 “Horizontal Market Power in Wisconsin Electricity Markets: A Report to the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin.” TCA Report. November 14, 2000 (Principal investigator).

“Using Supply Function Equilibrium Method to Analyze Electricity Markets with What You Bid Is What You Get (WYBIWYG) Payment Rule.” Paper presented at the EMF-17 Meeting, Washington D.C., November 5, 1999

“Modeling the Impact of NOx Regulations on Electric Power Markets in the Northeast and Midwest United States.” TCA Working Paper No. 108-1099-0233, October 1999 (co-author)

“Supply Function Equilibrium in Power Markets: Learning All the Way.” TCA Technical Paper 1299-1702, December 1999

“COMPEL: A Model for Simulating Strategic Behavior in Competitive Power Generation Markets.” Final Report to National Science Foundation in Phase I SBIR Project (Grant No. 9996158). June, 1999

“Modeling Strategic Behavior in Competitive Electricity Markets.” Invited session chair, INFORMS National Meeting, Cincinnati, OH, May 1999.

“An International Comparison of Models Measuring Market Power in Electricity.” Energy Modeling Forum EMF-17, Stanford University, March 1999 (co-author).

“A Pragmatic CGE Model for Assessing the Influence of Model Structure and Assumptions in Climate Change Policy Analysis.” A Report by Tellus Institute to the Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Atmospheric Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. November 1998 (co-author).

“Strategic Behavior in the Bilateral and Poolco-type Power Markets.” Presented at the 19th North American Conference of IAEE, Albuquerque, NM, October 19, 1998 (co-author).

“Errors in Predicting Daily Demand for Natural Gas Use: Statistical Analysis and Economic and Policy Implications for LDCs.” Presented at the Gas Research Institute's Forecasters Forum Meeting, Dallas, TX, October 8, 1998.

“Use of Computer Simulation Models to Analyze Market Power in Electricity Markets.” Comments of Tellus Institute to FERC in Docket No. PL98-6-000. Tellus Institute, June 13, 1998 (co-author).

“Strategic Bidding and Capacity Withholding in Deregulated Power Markets.” Presented at the INFORMS Annual Conference, Montreal. April 1998 (co-author).

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 “Modeling Electricity Pricing in a Deregulated Generation Industry: The Potential for Oligopoly Pricing in a Poolco.” Energy Journal, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1998 (co- author).

“Strategic Bidding in a Deregulated Generation Industry: Implications for Electricity Prices, Asset Valuation, and Regulatory Response.” Electricity Journal, January/February 1998 (co-author).

“Strengthening the Energy Modeling and Economics Wing in the Planning Commission of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.” Report to UNDP/UN DDSMS of Natural Gas Systems Expert on Final Mission to Dhaka, Bangladesh. June 1996.

“Incorporation of Swing and Balancing Requirements into Least Cost Supply and Capacity Planning of Natural Gas Utilities.” Presented at the Institute of Gas Technology International Symposium on Energy Modeling, Clearwater, FL. April 1996.

“Natural Gas Growth in the State of Florida -- Barriers and Benefits.” A report to: Florida Energy Office Department of Consumer Affairs. Tellus No. 94-236. Dec. 1995 (co-author).

“Analysis of Cost Implications of the Proposed LNG Facility in Wells, Maine, on Northern Utilities' Ratepayers.” Technical Report to Maine Public Advocate. August 1995 (principal investigator)

“Modeling Natural Gas Supply for Power Generation: A Case Study.” Proceedings of the Institute of Gas Technology Eighth International Symposium on Energy Modeling, Atlanta, GA. April 1995 (co-author).

“Role of Gas Supply Modeling in Regulatory Oversight.” Presented at Gas Division Speaker Series, Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities, October 26, 1994

“ of Avoided City-Gate Gas Costs.” Fifth NARUC IRP Conference. Kalispell, MT, May 1994.

“Projections of Fuel Prices in Vermont: Summer 1993.” Tellus Study No. 93-026. Nov. 1993

“Gazprom's Dilemma: Too Much Gas or Too Little?” CERA Private Report. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), Cambridge, MA, June 1993.

“The Future of Soviet Gas: Crisis or Bubble?” CERA Private Report. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), Cambridge, MA, January 1992.

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Attachment 2.1 Page 1 of 9 “Preliminary Study on Integrated Resource Planning for the Consumers' Gas Company, Ltd.” Tellus Study No. 91-001. Co-author, January 1992.

“Oil in the Structure of Energy: Foundations for Long-Term Forecasting.” Moscow, Nauka, 1989 (in Russian).

“On the Coagulation of Bubbles in a Viscous Liquid in a Turbulent Flow.” Colloid Journal, 1981, No. 2 (in Russian).

1978-1990 Over 40 research articles and technical reports (in Russian).

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