Chapter 10 Industry

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10 Industry

Coordinating Lead Authors: Manfred Fischedick (Germany), Joyashree Roy (India)

Lead Authors: Amr Abdel-Aziz (Egypt), Adolf Acquaye (Ghana / UK), Julian Allwood (UK), Jean-Paul Ceron (France), Yong Geng (China), Haroon Kheshgi (USA), Alessandro Lanza (Italy), Daniel Perczyk (Argentina), Lynn Price (USA), Estela Santalla (Argentina), Claudia Sheinbaum (Mexico), Kanako Tanaka (Japan)

Contributing Authors: Giovanni Baiocchi (UK / Italy), Katherine Calvin (USA), Kathryn Daenzer (USA), Shyamasree Dasgupta (India), Gian Delgado (Mexico), Salah El Haggar (Egypt), Tobias Fleiter (Germany), Ali Hasanbeigi (Iran / USA), Samuel Höller (Germany), Jessica Jewell (IIASA / USA), Yacob Mulugetta (Ethiopia / UK), Maarten Neelis (China), Stephane de la Rue du Can (France / USA), Nickolas Themelis (USA / Greece), Kramadhati S. Venkatagiri (India), María Yetano Roche (Spain / Germany)

Review Editors: Roland Clift (UK), Valentin Nenov (Bulgaria)

Chapter Science Assistant: María Yetano Roche (Spain / Germany)

This chapter should be cited as:

Fischedick M., J. Roy, A. Abdel-Aziz, A. Acquaye, J. M. Allwood, J.-P. Ceron, Y. Geng, H. Kheshgi, A. Lanza, D. Perczyk, L. Price, E. Santalla, C. Sheinbaum, and K. Tanaka, 2014: Industry. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contri- bution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

739 Industry Chapter 10

Contents

Executive Summary �� 743 10

10.1 Introduction �� 745

10.2 New developments in extractive mineral industries, manufacturing industries and services 747

10.3 New developments in emission trends and drivers �� 749

10.3.1 Industrial CO2 emissions �� 749

10.3.2 Industrial non-CO2 GHG emissions �� 753

10.4 Mitigation technology options, practices and behavioural aspects �� 753

10.4.1 Iron and steel �� 757

10.4.2 Cement �� 758

10.4.3 Chemicals (plastics / fertilizers / others) �� 759

10.4.4 Pulp and paper �� 760

10.4.5 Non-ferrous (aluminium / others) �� 761

10.4.6 Food processing �� 761

10.4.7 Textiles and leather �� 762

10.4.8 Mining �� 762

10.5 Infrastructure and systemic perspectives �� 763

10.5.1 Industrial clusters and parks (meso-level) �� 763

10.5.2 Cross-sectoral cooperation (macro-level) �� 764

10.5.3 Cross-sectoral implications of mitigation efforts �� 764

10.6 Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation �� 764

10.7 Costs and potentials �� 765

740 Chapter 10 Industry

10.7.1 CO2 emissions �� 765

10.7.2 Non-CO2 emissions �� 767

10.7.3 Summary results on costs and potentials �� 767 10

10.8 Co-benefits, risks and spillovers �� 770

10.8.1 Socio-economic and environmental effects �� 771

10.8.2 Technological risks and uncertainties �� 772

10.8.3 Public perception �� 772

10.8.4 Technological spillovers �� 774

10.9 Barriers and opportunities �� 774

10.9.1 Energy efficiency for reducing energy requirements �� 774

10.9.2 Emissions efficiency, fuel switching, and carbon dioxide capture and storage �� 774

10.9.3 Material efficiency �� 775

10.9.4 Product demand reduction �� 776

10.9.5 Non-CO2 greenhouse gases �� 776

10.10 Sectoral implications of transformation pathways and sustainable development �� 776

10.10.1 Industry transformation pathways �� 776

10.10.2 Transition, sustainable development, and investment �� 779

10.11 Sectoral policies �� 780

10.11.1 Energy efficiency �� 781

10.11.2 Emissions efficiency �� 782

10.11.3 Material efficiency �� 783

10.12 Gaps in knowledge and data �� 783

10.13 Frequently Asked Questions �� 784

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10.14 Appendix: Waste �� 785

10.14.1 Introduction �� 785

10.14.2 Emissions trends �� 785 10.14.2.1 Solid waste disposal ��785 10 10.14.2.2 Wastewater ��787

10.14.3 Technological options for mitigation of emissions from waste �� 788 10.14.3.1 Pre-consumer waste ��788 10.14.3.2 Post-consumer waste ��788 10.14.3.3 Wastewater ��790

10.14.4 Summary results on costs and potentials �� 791

References �� 793

742 Chapter 10 Industry

Executive Summary technologies, particularly in countries where these are not in practice and for non-energy intensive industries (robust evidence, high agreement). Despite long-standing attention to energy efficiency An absolute reduction in emissions from the industry sector will in industry, many options for improved energy efficiency remain. [10.4, require deployment of a broad set of mitigation options beyond 10.7] energy efficiency measures (medium evidence, high agreement). In the last two to three decades there has been continued improvement in Through innovation, additional reductions of approximately up 10 energy and process efficiency in industry, driven by the relatively high to 20 % in energy intensity may potentially be realized before share of energy costs. In addition to energy efficiency, other strategies approaching technological limits in some energy intensive such as emissions efficiency (including e. g., fuel and feedstock switch- industries (limited evidence, medium agreement). Barriers to imple- ing, carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)), material use efficiency menting energy efficiency relate largely to the initial investment costs (e. g., less scrap, new product design), recycling and re-use of materials and lack of information. Information programmes are the most preva- and products, product service efficiency (e. g., car sharing, maintain- lent approach for promoting energy efficiency, followed by economic ing buildings for longer, longer life for products), or demand reductions instruments, regulatory approaches, and voluntary actions. [10.4, 10.7, (e. g., less mobility services, less product demand) are required in paral- 10.9, 10.11] lel (medium evidence, high agreement). [Section 10.4, 10.7] Besides sector specific technologies, cross-cutting technologies Industry-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued and measures applicable in both large energy intensive indus- to increase and are higher than GHG emissions from other end- tries and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) can help to use sectors (high confidence). Despite the declining share of industry in reduce GHG emissions (robust evidence, high agreement). Cross-cut- global gross domestic product (GDP), global industry and waste / waste- ting technologies such as efficient motors, electronic control systems, water GHG emissions grew from 10.4 GtCO2eq in 1990 to 13.0 GtCO2eq and cross-cutting measures such as reducing air or steam leaks help to in 2005 to 15.4 GtCO2eq in 2010. Total global GHG emissions for indus- optimize performance of industrial processes and improve plant effi- try and waste / wastewater in 2010, which nearly doubled since 1970, ciency cost-effectively with both energy savings and emissions benefits were comprised of direct energy-related CO2 emissions of 5.3 GtCO2eq, [10.4]. indirect CO2 emissions from production of electricity and heat for industry of 5.2 GtCO2eq, process CO2 emissions of 2.6 GtCO2eq, non-CO2 Long-term step-change options can include a shift to low car-

GHG emissions of 0.9 GtCO2eq, and waste / wastewater emissions of bon electricity, radical product innovations (e. g., alternatives

1.4 GtCO2eq. 2010 direct and indirect emissions were dominated by CO2 to cement), or carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). Once

(85.1 %) followed by CH4 (8.6 %), HFC (3.5 %), N2O (2.0 %), PFC (0.5 %) demonstrated, sufficiently tested, cost-effective, and publicly accepted, and SF6 (0.4 %) emissions. Currently, emissions from industry are larger these options may contribute to significant climate change mitigation than the emissions from either the buildings or transport end-use sec- in the future (medium evidence, medium agreement). [10.4] tors and represent just over 30 % of global GHG emissions in 2010 (just over 40 % if Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) emis- The level of demand for new and replacement products has a sions are not included). (high confidence) [10.2, 10.3] significant effect on the activity level and resulting GHG emissions in the industry sector (medium evidence, high agreement). Globally, industrial GHG emissions are dominated by the Extending product life and using products more intensively could Asia region, which was also the region with the fastest emis- contribute to reduction of product demand without reducing the ser- sion growth between 2005 and 2010 (high confidence). In 2010, vice. Absolute emission reductions can also come through changes in over half (52 %) of global direct GHG emissions from industry and lifestyle and their corresponding demand levels, be it directly (e. g. for waste / wastewater were from the Asia region (ASIA), followed by the food, textiles) or indirectly (e. g. for product / service demand related to member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and tourism). [10.4] Development in 1990 (OECD-1990) (25 %), Economies in Transition (EIT) (9 %), Middle East and Africa (MAF) (8 %), and Latin America Mitigation activities in other sectors and adaptation measures (LAM) (6 %). Between 2005 and 2010, GHG emissions from industry may result in increased industrial product demand and corre- grew at an average annual rate of 3.5 % globally, comprised of 7 % sponding emissions (robust evidence, high agreement). Production average annual growth in the ASIA region, followed by MAF (4.4 %), of mitigation technologies (e. g., insulation materials for buildings) or LAM (2 %), and the EIT countries (0.1 %), but declined in the OECD- material demand for adaptation measures (e. g., infrastructure materi- 1990 countries (– 1.1 %). [10.3] als) contribute to industrial GHG emissions. [10.4, 10.6]

The energy intensity of the sector could be reduced by approxi- Systemic approaches and collaboration within and across indus- mately up to 25 % compared to current level through wide- trial sectors at different levels, e. g., sharing of infrastructure, scale upgrading, replacement and deployment of best available information, waste and waste management facilities, heating,

743 Industry Chapter 10

and cooling, may provide further mitigation potential in certain ties comprise, for example, reduction of HFC emissions by leak repair, regions or industry types (robust evidence, high agreement). The refrigerant recovery and recycling, and proper disposal and replace-

formation of industrial clusters, industrial parks, and industrial symbio- ment by alternative refrigerants (ammonia, HC, CO2). Nitrous oxide

sis are emerging trends in many developing countries, especially with (N2O) emissions from adipic and nitric acid production can be reduced SMEs. [10.5] through the implementation of thermal destruction and secondary

catalysts. The reduction of non-CO2 GHGs also faces numerous barriers. 10 Several emission-reducing options in the industrial sector are Lack of awareness, lack of economic incentives, and lack of commer- cost-effective and profitable (medium evidence, medium agree- cially available technologies (e. g., for HFC recycling and incineration) ment). While options in cost ranges of 20 – 50, 0 – 20, and even below are typical examples. [10.4, 10.7, 10.9]

0 USD2010 / tCO2eq exist, to achieve near-zero emission intensity levels in the industry sector would require additional realization of long- Long-term scenarios for industry highlight improvements in term step-change options (e. g., CCS) associated with higher levelized emissions efficiency as an important future mitigation strategy

costs of conserved carbon (LCCC) in the range of 50 – 150 USD2010 / tCO2. (robust evidence, high agreement). Detailed industry sector scenarios However, mitigation costs vary regionally and depend on site-specific fall within the range of more general long-term integrated scenarios. conditions. Similar estimates of costs for implementing material effi- Improvements in emissions efficiency in the mitigation scenarios result

ciency, product-service efficiency, and service demand reduction strat- from a shift from fossil fuels to electricity with low (or negative) CO2 egies are not available. [10.7] emissions and use of CCS for industry fossil fuel use and process emissions. The crude representation of materials, products, and demand in Mitigation measures in the industry sector are often associated scenarios limits the evaluation of the relative importance of material with co-benefits (robust evidence, high agreement). Co-benefits of efficiency, product-service efficiency, and demand reduction options. mitigation measures could drive industrial decisions and policy choices. (robust evidence, high agreement) [6.8, 10.10] They include enhanced competitiveness through cost reductions, new business opportunities, better environmental compliance, health ben- The most effective option for mitigation in waste manage- efits through better local air and water quality and better work condi- ment is waste reduction, followed by re-use and recycling and tions, and reduced waste, all of which provide multiple indirect private energy recovery (robust evidence, high agreement) [10.4, 10.14]. and social benefits. [10.8] Direct emissions from the waste sector almost doubled during the period from 1970 to 2010. Globally, approximately only 20 % of Unless barriers to mitigation in industry are resolved, the pace municipal solid waste (MSW) is recycled and approximately 13.5 % and extent of mitigation in industry will be limited and even is treated with energy recovery while the rest is deposited in open profitable measures will remain untapped (robust evidence, high dumpsites or landfills. Approximately 47 % of wastewater produced agreement). There are a broad variety of barriers to implementing in the domestic and manufacturing sectors is still untreated. As the energy efficiency in the industry sector; for energy-intensive industry, share of recycled or reused material is still low, waste treatment tech- the issue is largely initial investment costs for retrofits, while barriers nologies and energy recovery can also result in significant emission for other industries include both cost and a lack of information. For reductions from waste disposal. Reducing emissions from landfilling material efficiency, product-service efficiency, and demand reduction, through treatment of waste by anaerobic digestion has the largest there is a lack of experience with implementation of mitigation mea- cost range, going from negative cost to very high cost. Also, advanced sures and often there are no clear incentives for either the supplier wastewater treatment technologies may enhance GHG emissions or consumer. Barriers to material efficiency include lack of human and reduction in the wastewater treatment but they tend to concentrate institutional capacities to encourage management decisions and pub- in the higher costs options (medium evidence, medium agreement). lic participation. [10.9] [10.14]

There is no single policy that can address the full range of miti- A key challenge for the industry sector is the uncertainty, incom- gation measures available for industry and overcome associ- pleteness, and quality of data available in the public domain ated barriers (robust evidence, high agreement). In promoting energy on energy use and costs for specific technologies on global and efficiency, information programs are the most prevalent approach, regional scales that can serve as a basis for assessing perfor- followed by economic instruments, regulatory approaches and volun- mance, mitigation potential, costs, and for developing policies tary actions. To date, few policies have specifically pursued material or and programmes with high confidence. Bottom-up information product service efficiency. [10.11] on cross-sector collaboration and demand reduction as well as their implications for mitigation in industry is particularly limited. Improved While the largest mitigation potential in industry lies in reduc- modelling of material flows in integrated models could lead to a better

ing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, there are also signifi- understanding of material efficiency and demand reduction strategies

cant mitigation opportunities for non-CO2 gases. Key opportuni- and the associated mitigation potentials. [10.12]

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10.1 Introduction Figure 10.1, which shows a breakdown of total global anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 based on Bajželj et al. (2013), illustrates the logic that has been used to distinguish the industry sector from other This chapter provides an update to developments on mitigation in the sectors discussed in this report. The figure shows how human demand industry sector since the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate for energy services, on the left, is provided by economic sectors, Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007), but has much through the use of equipment in which devices create heat or work wider coverage. Industrial activities create all the physical products from final energy. In turn, the final energy has been created by pro- 10 (e. g., cars, agricultural equipment, fertilizers, textiles, etc.) whose use cessing a primary energy source. Combustion of carbon-based fuels delivers the final services that satisfy current human needs. Compared leads to the release of GHG emissions as shown on the right. The to the industry chapter in AR4, this chapter analyzes industrial activi- remaining anthropogenic emissions arise from chemical reactions in ties over the whole supply chain, from extraction of primary mate- industrial processes, from waste management and from the agriculture rials (e. g., ores) or recycling (of waste materials), through product and land-use changes discussed in Chapter 11. manufacturing, to the demand for the products and their services. It includes a discussion of trends in activity and emissions, options for Mitigation options can be chosen to reduce GHG emissions at all mitigation (technology, practices, and behavioural aspects), estimates stages in Figure 10.1, but caution is needed to avoid ‘double count- of the mitigation potentials of some of these options and related ing’. The figure also demonstrates that care is needed when allocat- costs, co-benefits, risks and barriers to their deployment, as well as ing emissions to specific products and services (‘carbon footprints’, for industry-specific policy instruments. Findings of integrated models example) while ensuring that the sum of all ‘footprints’ adds to the (long-term mitigation pathways) are also presented and discussed sum of all emissions. from the sector perspective. In addition, at the end of the chapter, the hierarchy in waste management and mitigation opportunities are Emissions from industry (30 % of total global GHG emissions) arise synthesized, covering key waste-related issues that appear across mainly from material processing, i. e., the conversion of natural all chapters in the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth resources (ores, oil, biomass) or scrap into materials stocks which are Assessment Report (AR5). then converted in manufacturing and construction into products. Pro-

Service Sector Equipment Device Final Energy Fuel Emissions

Mobility Car Transport Truck Engines Oil Fuels & Oil Freight Motors

Fuel Appliances Production Natural Warmth Buildings CO Heated Gas 2 Space & Water Electricity Other Goods & Machines Services Burners Coal Furnaces Industry & Construction Boilers

Process F-Gas

Food Land-Use Change N2O Crops Agriculture Livestock CH4

Waste Waste Management

Figure 10.1 | A Sankey diagram showing the system boundaries of the industry sector and demonstrating how global anthropogenic emissions in 2010 arose from the chain of technologies and systems required to deliver final services triggered by human demand. The width of each line is proportional to GHG emissions released, and the sum of these widths along any vertical slice through the diagram is the same, representing all emissions in 2010 (Bajželj et al., 2013).

745 Industry Chapter 10

duction of just iron and steel and non-metallic minerals (predominately G / E is the emissions intensity of the sector expressed as a ratio to

cement) results in 44 % of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (direct, the energy used: the GHG emissions of industry arise largely from indirect, and process-related) from industry. Other emission-intensive energy use (directly from combusting fossil fuels, and indirectly sectors are chemicals (including plastics) and fertilizers, pulp and through purchasing electricity and steam), but emissions also arise paper, non-ferrous metals (in particular aluminium), food processing from industrial chemical reactions. In particular, producing cement, (food growing is covered in Chapter 11), and textiles. chemicals, and non-ferrous metals leads to the inevitable release 10 of significant ‘process emissions’ regardless of energy supply. We Decompositions of GHG emissions have been used to analyze the dif- refer to reductions in G / E as emissions efficiency for the energy ferent drivers of global industry-related emissions. An accurate decom- inputs and the processes. position for the industry sector would involve great complexity, so instead this chapter uses a simplified conceptual expression to identify E / M is the energy intensity: approximately three quarters of industrial the key mitigation opportunities available within the sector: energy use is required to create materials from ores, oil or biomass, with the remaining quarter used in the downstream manufactur- G = _ G × _ E × _ M × _ P × S ing and construction sectors that convert materials to products. E M P S The energy required can in some cases (particularly for metals and where G is the GHG emissions of the industrial sector within a speci- paper) be reduced by production from recycled scrap, and can be fied time period (usually one year),E is industrial sector energy con- further reduced by material re-use, or by exchange of waste heat sumption and M is the total global production of materials in that and exchange of by-products between sectors. Reducing E / M is the period. P is stock of products created from these materials (including goal of energy efficiency. both consumables and durables added to existing stocks), and S is the services delivered in the time period through use of those products. M / P is the material intensity of the sector: the amount of material required to create a product and maintain the stock of a product depends both The expression is indicative only, but leads to the main mitigation on the design of the product and on the scrap discarded during its strategies discussed in this chapter: production. Both can be reduced by material efficiency.

Energy (Ch.7) Downstream Buildings/Transport (Chs. 8,9)

1 2

3a 3b 4 5 Feedstocks Material Products Services Demand

Extractive Materials Manufacturing Stock of Use of Products Industry Industries and Construction Products to Provide Services

Home Scrap New Scrap Retirement

Re-Use Recyclate Discards Regional/ Waste Waste to Energy/ Domestic Industry Disposal Industry

Rest of the World/ Offshore Industry: Extractive Materials Manufacturing Energy Use Industry Industries and Construction Traded Emissions (See Ch. 5 and 14) Energy-Related Emissions Process Emissions

Energy (Ch.7) Downstream

Figure 10.2 | A schematic illustration of industrial activity over the supply chain. Options for climate change mitigation in the industry sector are indicated by the circled numbers: (1) Energy efficiency (e. g., through furnace insulation, process coupling, or increased material recycling); (2) Emissions efficiency (e. g., from switching to non-fossil fuel electricity supply, or applying CCS to cement kilns); (3a) Material efficiency in manufacturing (e. g., through reducing yield losses in blanking and stamping sheet metal or re-using old structural steel without melting); (3b) Material efficiency in product design (e. g., through extended product life, light-weight design, or de-materialization); (4) Product-Service efficiency (e. g., through car sharing, or higher building occupancy); (5) Service demand reduction (e. g., switching from private to public transport).

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P / S is the product-service intensity: the level of service provided by a Figure 10.2 clarifies the terms used for key sectors in this chapter: product depends on its intensity of use. For consumables (e. g., food ‘Industry’ refers to the totality of activities involving the physical trans- or detergent) that are used within the accounting period in which formation of materials within which ‘extractive industry’ supplies feed- they are produced, service is provided solely by the production stock to the energy-intensive ‘materials industries’ which create refined within that period. For durables that last for longer than the account- materials. These are converted by ‘manufacturing’ into products and ing period (e. g., clothing), services are provided by the stock of prod- by ‘construction’ into buildings and infrastructure. ‘Home scrap’ from ucts in current use. In this case P is the flow of material required to the materials processing industries, ‘new scrap’ from downstream con- 10 replace retiring products and to meet demand for increases in total struction and manufacturing, and products retiring at end-of-life are stock. Thus for consumables, P / S can be reduced by more precise use processed in the ‘waste industry.’ This ‘waste’ may be recycled (particu- (for example using only recommended doses of detergents or apply- larly bulk metals, paper, glass and some plastics), may be re-used to ing fertilizer precisely) while for durables, P / S can be reduced both save the energy required for recycling, or may be discarded to landfills by using durable products for longer and by using them more inten- or incinerated (which can lead to further emissions on one hand and sively. We refer to reductions in P / S as product-service efficiency. energy recovery on the other hand).

S: The total global demand for service is a function of population, wealth, lifestyle, and the whole social system of expectations and aspirations. If the total demand for service were to decrease, it 10.2 New developments in would lead to a reduction in industrial emissions, and we refer to extractive mineral indus- this as demand reduction. tries, manufacturing Figure 10.2 expands on this simplified relationship to illustrate the industries and services main options for GHG emissions mitigation in industry (circled numbers). The figure also demonstrates how international trade of products leads to significant differences between ‘production’ and ‘con- World production trends of mineral extractive industries, manufactur- sumption’ measures of national emissions, and demonstrates how the ing, and services, have grown steadily in the last 40 years (Figure 10.3). ‘waste’ industry, which includes material recycling as well as options However, the service sector share in world GDP increased from 50 % in like ‘waste to energy’ and disposal, has a significant potential for influ- 1970 to 70 % in 2010; while the industry world GDP share decreased encing future industrial emissions. from 38.2 to 26.9 % (World Bank, 2013).

Cement

6 Iron ore Nitrogen (Fixed) - Ammonia Paper and Paperboard 5 Copper Silver Relative Growth [1970=1] Relative Growth Steel 4 Gold

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 10.3 | World’s growth of main minerals and manufacturing products (1970 = 1). Sources: (WSA, 2012a; FAO, 2013; Kelly and Matos, 2013).

747 Industry Chapter 10

Table 10.1 | Total production of energy-intensive industrial goods for the world top-5 Concerning extractive industries for metallic minerals, from 2005 to producers of each commodity: 2005, 2012, and average annual growth rate (AAGR) 2012 annual mining production of iron ore, gold, silver, and copper (FAO, 2013; Kelly and Matos, 2013). increased by 10 %, 1 %, 2 %, and 2 % respectively (Kelly and Matos, 2013). Most of the countries in Africa, Latin America, and the tran- 2005 2012 Commodity / Country AAGR [Mt] [Mt] sition economies produce more than they use; whereas use is being Iron ore driven mainly by consumption in China, India, and developed coun- 10 tries (UNCTAD, 2008)1. Extractive industries of rare earths are gain- World 1540 3000 10 % ing importance because of their various uses in high-tech industry China 420 1300 18 % (Moldoveanu and Papangelakis, 2012). New mitigation technologies, Australia 262 525 10 % such as hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs), electricity storage and Brazil 280 375 4 % renewable technologies, increase the demand for certain miner- India 140 245 8 % als, such as lithium, gallium, and phosphates (Bebbington and Bury, Russia 97 100 0.4 % 2009). Concerns over depletion of these minerals have been raised, Steel but important research on extraction methods as well as increasing World 1130 1500 4 % recycling rates are leading to increasing reserve estimates for these China 349 720 11 % materials (Graedel et al., 2011; Resnick Institute, 2011; Moldoveanu Japan 113 108 – 1 % and Papangelakis, 2012; Eckelman et al., 2012). China accounts for U. S. 95 91 – 1 % 97 % of global rare earth extraction (130 Mt in 2010) (Kelly and India 46 76 8 % Matos, 2013). Russia 66 76 2 % Cement Regarding manufacturing production, the annual global production World 2310 3400 6 % growth rate of steel, cement, ammonia, aluminium, and paper — the China 1040 2150 11 % most energy-intensive industries — ranged from 2 % to 6 % between India 145 250 8 % 2005 and 2012 (Table 10.1). Many trends are responsible for this devel- U. S. 101 74 – 4 % opment (e. g., urbanization significantly triggered demand on construc- Brazil 37 70 10 % tion materials). Over the last decades, as a general trend, the world has Iran 33 65 10 % witnessed decreasing industrial activity in developed countries with a Ammonia major downturn in industrial production due to the economic reces- World 121.0 137.0 2 % sion in 2009 (Kelly and Matos, 2013). There is continued increase in China 37.8 44.0 2 % industrial activity and trade of some developing countries. The increase India 10.8 12.0 2 % in manufacturing production and consumption has occurred mostly in Russia 10.0 10.0 0 % Asia. China is the largest producer of the main industrial outputs. In U. S. 8.0 9.5 2 % many middle-income countries industrialization has stagnated, and in Trinidad & Tobago 4.2 5.5 4 % general Africa and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have remained Aluminium marginalized (UNIDO, 2009; WSA, 2012a). In 2012, 1.5 billion tonnes World 31.9 44.9 5 % of steel (212 kg / cap) were manufactured; 46 % was produced and China 7.8 19.0 14 % consumed in mainland China (522 kg / cap). China also dominates Russia 3.7 4.2 2 % global cement production, producing 2.2 billion tonnes (1,561 kg / cap) Canada 2.9 2.7 – 1 % in 2012, followed by India with only 250 Mt (202 kg / cap) (Kelly and U. S. 2.5 2.0 – 3 % Matos, 2013; UNDESA, 2013). More subsector specific trends are in Australia 1.9 1.9 0 % Section 10.4. Paper World 364.7 401.1 1 % Globally large-scale production dominates energy-intensive indus- China 60.4 106.3 8 % tries; however small- and medium-sized enterprises are very impor- U. S. 83.7 75.5 – 1 % tant in many developing countries. This brings additional challenges Japan 31.0 26.0 – 2 % for mitigation efforts (Worrell et al., 2009; Roy, 2010; Ghosh and Roy, Germany 21.7 22.6 1 % 2011). Indonesia 7.2 11.5 7 %

1 For example, in 2008, China imported 50 % of the world’s total iron ore exports and produced about 50 % of the world’s pig iron (Kelly and Matos, 2013). India demanded 35 % of world´s total gold production in 2011 (WGC, 2011), and the United States consumed 33 % of world´s total silver production in 2011 (Kelly and Matos, 2013).

748 Chapter 10 Industry

Another important change in the world´s industrial output over the Figure 10.4 shows global industry and waste / wastewater direct and last decades has been the rise in the proportion of international indirect GHG emissions by source from 1970 to 2010. Table 10.2 shows trade. Manufactured products are not only traded, but the produc- primary energy4 and GHG emissions for industry by emission type tion process is increasingly broken down into tasks that are them- (direct energy-related, indirect from electricity and heat production, selves outsourced and / or traded; i. e., production is becoming less process CO2, and non-CO2), and for waste / wastewater for five world vertically integrated. In addition to other drivers such as population regions and the world total.5 growth, urbanization, and income increase, the rise in the propor- 10 tion of trade has been driving production increase for certain coun- Figure 10.5 shows global industry and waste / wastewater direct and tries (Fisher-Vanden et al., 2004; Liu and Ang, 2007; Reddy and indirect GHG emissions by region from 1970 to 2010. This regional Ray, 2010; OECD, 2011). The economic recession of 2009 reduced breakdown shows that: industrial production worldwide because of consumption reduction, low optimism in credit market, and a decline in world trade (Nis- • Over half (52 %) of global direct GHG emissions from industry and sanke, 2009). More discussion on GHG emissions embodied in trade waste / wastewater are from the ASIA region, followed by OECD- is presented in Chapter 14. Similar to industry, the service sector is 1990 (25 %), EIT (9.4 %), MAF (7.6 %), and LAM (5.7 %). heterogeneous and has significant proportion of small and medium • Between 2005 and 2010, GHG emissions from industry grew at an sized enterprises. The service sector covers activities such as public average annual rate of 3.5 % globally, comprised of 7.0 % average administration, finance, education, trade, hotels, restaurants, and annual growth in the ASIA region, followed by MAF (4.4 %), LAM health. Activity growth in developing countries and structural shift (2.0 %), and the EIT countries (0.1 %), but declined in the OECD- with rising income is driving service sector growth (Fisher-Vanden 1990 countries (– 1.1 %). et al., 2004; Liu and Ang, 2007; Reddy and Ray, 2010; OECD, 2011). OECD countries are shifting from manufacturing towards service-ori- Regional trends are further discussed in Chapter 5, Section 5.2.1. ented economies (Sun, 1998; Schäfer, 2005; US EIA, 2010), however, this is also true for some non-OECD countries. For example, India has Table 10.3 provides 2010 direct and indirect GHG emissions by source almost 64 % – 66 % of GDP contribution from service sector (World and gas. 2010 direct and indirect emissions were dominated by CO2

Bank, 2013). (85.1 %), followed by methane (CH4) (8.6 %), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)

(3.5 %), nitrous oxide (N2O) (2.0 %), Perfluorocarbons (PFC) (0.5 %)

and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) (0.4 %) emissions. 10.3 New developments 10.3.1 Industrial CO emissions in emission trends 2 and drivers As shown in Table 10.3, industrial CO2 emissions were 13.14 GtCO2

in 2010. These emissions were comprised of 5.27 GtCO2 direct

energy-related emissions, 5.25 GtCO2 indirect emissions from elec-

In 2010, the industry sector accounted for around 28 % of final energy tricity and heat production, 2.59 GtCO2 from process CO2 emissions use (IEA, 2013). Global industry and waste / wastewater GHG emis- and 0.03 GtCO2 from waste / wastewater. Process CO2 emissions are sions grew from 10.37 GtCO2eq in 1990 to 13.04 GtCO2eq in 2005 to comprised of process-related emissions of 1.352 GtCO2 from cement 6 15.44 GtCO2eq in 2010. These emissions are larger than the emissions production, 0.477 GtCO2 from production of chemicals, 0.242 GtCO2 from either the buildings or transport end-use sectors and represent from lime production, 0.134 GtCO2 from coke ovens, 0.074 GtCO2 from just over 30 % of global GHG emissions in 2010 (just over 40 % if non-ferrous metals production, 0.072 GtCO2 from iron and steel produc-

AFOLU emissions are not included). These total emissions are com- tion, 0.061 GtCO2 from ferroalloy production, 0.060 GtCO2 from lime- prised of: stone and dolomite use, 0.049 GtCO2 from solvent and other product

use, 0.042 GtCO2 from production of other minerals and 0.024 GtCO2 2 • Direct energy-related CO2 emissions for industry from non-energy use of lubricants / waxes (JRC / PBL, 2013). Total indus-

• Indirect CO2 emissions from production of electricity and heat for trial CO2 values include emissions from mining and quarrying, from industry3 manufacturing, and from construction.

• Process CO2 emissions

• Non-CO2 GHG emissions • Direct emissions for waste / wastewater 4 See Glossary in Annex I for definition of primary energy. 5 The IEA also recently published CO2 emissions with electricity and heat allocated to end-use sectors (IEA, 2012a). However, the methodology used in this report 2 This also includes CO2 emissions from non-energy uses of fossil fuels. differs slightly from the IEA approach as explained in Annex II.5 3 6 The methodology for calculating indirect CO2 emissions is based on de la Rue du Another source, Boden et al., 2013, indicates that cement process CO2 emissions

Can and Price (2008) and described in Annex II.5. in 2010 were 1.65 GtCO2.

749 Industry Chapter 10

Energy-intensive processes in the mining sector include excavation, Manufacturing is a subset of industry that includes production of all mine operation, material transfer, mineral preparation, and separa- products (e. g., steel, cement, machinery, textiles) except for energy tion. Energy consumption for mining7 and quarrying, which is included products, and does not include energy used for construction. Manu-

in ‘other industries’ in Figure 10.4, represents about 2.7 % of world- facturing is responsible for about 98 % of total direct CO2 emissions

wide industrial energy use, varying regionally, and a significant share from the industrial sector (IEA, 2012b; c). Most manufacturing CO2 of national industrial energy use in Botswana and Namibia (around emissions arise due to chemical reactions and fossil fuel combustion 10 80 %), Chile (over 50 %), Canada (30 %), Zimbabwe (18.6 %), Mongo- largely used to provide the intense heat that is often required to bring lia (16.5 %), and South Africa (almost 15 %) in 2010 (IEA, 2012b; c). about the physical and chemical transformations that convert raw materials into industrial products. These industries, which include pro- 7 Discussion of extraction of energy carriers (e. g., coal, oil, and natural gas) takes duction of chemicals and petrochemicals, iron and steel, cement, pulp place in Chapter 7. and paper, and aluminium, usually account for most of the sector’s

Direct Emissions

eq/yr] N O Emissions from Industry 2 2 12 Other Industries Cement Production Total 10 Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals 0.24% 10 Chemicals Wastewater Treatment

GHG Emissions [GtCO Landﬁll, Waste Incineration and Others 8 Total 7.1 36%

Total 6.1 0.24%

0.26% 6 13% 38%

43%

7.2% 4 22% 4.8% 20%

27% 15% 2 18% 13% 7.6% 8.2% 6.1% 5.9% 8.3% 6.6% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Indirect Emissions

6 Total 5.3 Indirect Emissions from Heat & Electricity Production eq/yr] 5 2

4 Total 3.3

3 Total 1.8 2

1 GHG Emissions [GtCO 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 10.4 | Total global industry and waste / wastewater direct and indirect GHG emissions by source, 1970 – 2010 (GtCO2eq / yr) (de la Rue du Can and Price, 2008; IEA, 2012a; JRC / PBL, 2013). See also Annex II.9, Annex II.5.

Note: For statistical reasons ‘Cement production’ only covers process CO2 emissions (i. e., emissions from cement-forming reactions); energy-related direct emissions from cement

production are included in ‘other industries’ CO2 emissions.

750 Chapter 10 Industry

energy consumption in many countries. In India, the share of energy technologies, etc.) and structural change in the share of energy- use by energy-intensive manufacturing industries in total manufactur- intensive industries in the economy. During 1995 – 2008, developing ing energy consumption is 62 % (INCCA, 2010), while it is about 80 % economies had greater reductions in energy intensity while developed in China (NBS, 2012). economies had greater reductions through structural change (UNIDO, 2011). Overall reductions in industrial energy use / manufacturing value- added were found to be greatest in developing economies during The share of non-energy use of fossil fuels (e. g., the use of fossil fuels 10 1995 – 2008. Low-income developing economies had the highest as a chemical industry feedstock, of refinery and coke oven products, industrial energy intensity values while developed economies had the and of solid carbon for the production of metals and inorganic chemi- lowest. Reductions in intensity were realized through technological cals) in total manufacturing final energy use has grown from 20 % in changes (e. g., changes in product mix, adoption of energy-efficient 2000 to 24 % in 2009 (IEA, 2012b; c). Fossil fuels used as raw materi-

Direct Emissions

12 eq/yr]

2 Middle East and Africa Total 10 Latin America and Carribean Economies in Transition 10 Asia 7.6%

OECD-1990 Countries 5.7%

9.4% 8 Total 7.1 GHG Emissions [GtCO

Total 6.1 5.9% 5.6% 6 3.1% 3.6% 19% 52%

22%

28% 4 15%

2 56% 42% 25%

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Indirect Emissions 6 Total 5.2

eq/yr] 0.29

2 5 0.17 0.51 4 Total 3.3

0.14 3 0.08 Total 1.8 1.1 3.1 2 0.06 0.04 0.65 0.53 GHG Emissions [GtCO 1 0.13 1.0 1.3 1.2 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 10.5 | Total global industry and waste / wastewater direct and indirect GHG emissions by region, 1970 – 2010 (GtCO2eq / yr) (de la Rue du Can and Price, 2008; IEA, 2012a; JRC / PBL, 2013). See also Annex II.9, Annex II.5.

751 Industry Chapter 10

Table 10.2 | Industrial Primary Energy (EJ) and GHG emissions (GtCO2eq) by emission type (direct energy-related, indirect from electricity and heat production, process CO2, and

non-CO2), and waste / wastewater for five world regions and the world total (IEA, 2012a; b; c; JRC / PBL, 2013; see Annex II.9). For definitions of regions see Annex II.2.

Primary Energy (EJ) GHG Emissions (GtCO2eq) 1990 2005 2010 1990 2005 2010 Direct (energy-related) 20.89 42.83 56.80 1.21 2.08 2.92 10 Indirect (electricity + heat) 5.25 15.11 24.38 0.65 2.14 3.08 Process CO2 emissions 0.36 0.96 1.49 ASIA

Non-CO2 GHG emissions 0.05 0.25 0.27 Waste / wastewater 0.35 0.54 0.60 Total 26.14 57.93 81.17 2.62 5.98 8.36 Direct (energy-related) 21.98 13.47 13.68 0.79 0.41 0.45 Indirect (electricity + heat) 6.84 4.10 3.42 1.09 0.59 0.51

Process CO2 emissions 0.32 0.23 0.23 EIT Non-CO2 GHG emissions 0.11 0.12 0.12 Waste / wastewater 0.12 0.13 0.15 Total 28.82 17.56 17.10 2.43 1.48 1.47 Direct (energy-related) 5.85 8.64 9.45 0.19 0.26 0.28 Indirect (electricity + heat) 0.97 1.67 1.93 0.08 0.15 0.17

Process CO2 emissions 0.08 0.11 0.13 LAM Non-CO2 GHG emissions 0.03 0.03 0.03 Waste / wastewater 0.10 0.14 0.14 Total 6.82 10.31 11.38 0.48 0.68 0.75 Direct (energy-related) 5.59 8.91 11.43 0.22 0.30 0.37 Indirect (electricity + heat) 1.12 1.99 2.58 0.14 0.24 0.29

Process CO2 emissions 0.08 0.15 0.21 MAF Non-CO2 GHG emissions 0.02 0.02 0.02 Waste / wastewater 0.10 0.16 0.17 Total 6.71 10.90 14.01 0.56 0.86 1.07 Direct (energy-related) 40.93 45.63 42.45 1.55 1.36 1.24 Indirect (electricity + heat) 11.25 10.92 9.71 1.31 1.37 1.19

Process CO2 emissions 0.57 0.56 0.52 OECD-1990 Non-CO2 GHG emissions 0.35 0.35 0.44 Waste / wastewater 0.50 0.40 0.39 Total 52.18 56.55 52.16 4.28 4.04 3.79 Direct (energy-related) 95.25 119.47 133.81 3.96 4.41 5.27 Indirect (electricity + heat) 25.42 33.78 42.01 3.27 4.48 5.25

Process CO2 emissions 1.42 2.01 2.59 World Non-CO2 GHG emissions 0.55 0.77 0.89 Waste / wastewater 1.17 1.37 1.45 Total 120.67 153.25 175.82 10.37 13.04 15.44

Note: Includes energy and non-energy use. Non-energy use covers those fuels that are used as raw materials in the different sectors and are not consumed as a fuel or transformed into another fuel. Also includes construction.

als / feedstocks in the chemical industry may result in CO2 emissions at Trade is an important factor that influences production choice deci-

the end of their life-span in the disposal phase if they are not recovered sions and hence CO2 emissions at the country level. Emission invento- or recycled (Patel et al., 2005). These emissions need to be accounted ries based on consumption rather than production reflect the fact that for in the waste disposal sector’s emissions, although data on waste products produced and exported for consumption in developed coun- imports / exports and ultimate disposition are not consistently compiled tries are an important contributing factor of the emission increase for or reliable (Masanet and Sathaye, 2009). Subsector specific details are certain countries such as China, particularly since 2000 (Ahmad and also in Section 10.4. Wyckoff, 2003; Wang and Watson, 2007; Peters and Hertwich, 2008;

752 Chapter 10 Industry

1 Table 10.3 | Industry and waste / wastewater direct and indirect GHG emissions by Table 10.4 | Emissions of non-CO2 GHGs for key industrial processes (JRC / PBL, 2013) source and gas, 2010 (in MtCO2eq) (IEA, 2012a; JRC / PBL, 2013). Emissions (MtCO2eq) Process 1990 2005 2010 2010 Emissions Source Gas (MtCO2eq) HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production 75 194 207 ODS substitutes (Industrial process refrigeration)2 0 13 21 CO2 2,127 PFC, SF , NF from flat panel display manufacturing 0 4 6 CH4 18.87 6 3 N O from adipic acid and nitric acid production 232 153 104 10 Ferrous and non ferrous metals SF6 8.77 2

PFC 52.45 PFCs and SF6 from photovoltaic manufacturing 0 0 1 PFCs from aluminium production 107 70 52 N2O 4.27 SF from manufacturing of electrical equipment 12 7 10 CO2 1,159 6

HFC 206.9 HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3 from semiconductor manufacturing 7 21 17 SF from magnesium manufacturing 12 9 8 Chemicals N2O 139.71 6 CH and N O from other industrial processes 3 5 6 SF6 11.86 4 2

CH4 4.91 Note: Cement* CO2 1,352.35 1 the data from US EPA (EPA, 2012a) show emissions of roughly the same mag- Indirect (electricity + heat) CO 5,246.79 2 nitude, but differ in total amounts per source as well as the growth trends. The

CH4 627.34 differences are significant in some particular sources like HFC-23 from HCFC-22 Landfill, Waste Incineration production, PFCs from aluminium production and N2O from adipic acid and nitric CO2 32.50 and Others acid production. N O 11.05 2 2 Ozone depleting substances (ODS) substitutes values from EPA (2012a).

CH4 666.75 Wastewater treatment N2O 108.04

CO2 3,222.24

SF6 40.59 production and PFC emissions from aluminium production decreased N2O 15.96 Other industries while emissions from HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production increased CH4 9.06 from 0.075 GtCO eq in 1990 to 0.207 GtCO eq in 2010. In the period PFC 20.48 2 2 from 1990 – 2010, fluorinated gases (F-gases) and N O were the most HFC 332.38 2 important non-CO GHG emissions in manufacturing industry. Most of Indirect N O 24.33 2 2 the F-gases arise from the emissions from different processes including 2010 Emissions the production of aluminium and HCFC-22 and the manufacturing of Gas (MtCO2eq) flat panel displays, magnesium, photovoltaics, and semiconductors. The

Carbon dioxide CO2 13,139 rest of the F-gases correspond mostly to HFCs that are used in refrigera- Methane CH 1,326.93 4 tion equipment used in industrial processes. Most of the N2O emissions Hydrofluorocarbons HFC 539.28 from the industrial sector are contributed by the chemical industry, par-

Nitrous oxide N2O 303.35 ticularly from the production of nitric and adipic acids (EPA, 2012a). A Perfluorocarbons PFC 72.93 summary of the issues and trends that concern developing countries and

Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 61.21 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in this chapter is found in Box 10.1.

Carbon Dioxide Equivalent CO2eq 15,443 (total of all gases)

Note: CO emissions from cement-forming reactions only; cement energy-related direct 2 10.4 Mitigation technology emissions are included in ‘other industries’ CO emissions. 2 options, practices and behavioural aspects Weber et al., 2008). Chapter 14 provides an in-depth discussion and review of the literature related to trade, embodied emissions, and consumption-based emissions inventories. Figure 10.2, and its associated identity, define six options for climate change mitigation in industry.

10.3.2 Industrial non-CO2 GHG emissions • Energy efficiency (E / M): Energy is used in industry to drive chemical reactions, to create heat, and to perform mechanical work. The

Table 10.4 provides emissions of non-CO2 gases for some key industrial required chemical reactions are subject to thermodynamic limits. processes (JRC / PBL, 2013). N2O emissions from adipic acid and nitric acid The history of industrial energy efficiency is one of innovating to

753 Industry Chapter 10

Box 10.1 | Issues regarding Developing and Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Reductions in energy intensity (measured as final energy use per agriculture decreased while manufacturing, services, and mining industrial GDP) from 1995 to 2008 were larger in developing increased (UNCTAD, 2011; UN, 2013). economies than in developed economies (UNIDO, 2011). The shift 10 from energy-intensive industries towards high-tech sectors (struc- Developed and developing countries are changing their industrial tural change) was the main driving force in developed economies, structure, from low technology to medium and high technology while the energy intensity reductions in large developing econo- products (level of technology in production process), but LDCs mies such as China, India, and Mexico and transition economies remain highly concentrated in low technology products. The such as Azerbaijan and Ukraine were related to technological share of low technology products in the years 1995 and 2009 in changes (Reddy and Ray, 2010; Price et al., 2011; UNIDO, 2011; LDCs MVA was 68 % and 71 %, while in developing countries it Sheinbaum-Pardo et al., 2012; Roy et al., 2013). Brazil is a special was 38 % and 30 % and in developed countries 33 % and 21 %, case were industrial energy intensity increased (UNIDO, 2011; respectively (UNIDO, 2011). Sheinbaum et al., 2011). The potential for industrial energy efficiency is still very important for developing countries (see Sections Among other development strategies, two alternative possible 10.4 and 10.7), and possible industrialization development opens scenarios could be envisaged for the industrial sector in LDCs: the opportunity for the installation of new plants with highly (1) continuing with the present situation of concentration in efficient energy and material technologies and processes (UNIDO, labour intensive and resource intensive industries or (2) moving 2011). towards an increase in the production share of higher technology products (following the trend in developing countries). The Other strategies for mitigation in developing countries such as future evolution of the industrial sector will be successful only emissions efficiency (e. g., fuel switching) depend on the fuel mix if the technologies adopted are consistent with the resource and availability for each country. Product-service efficiency (e. g., endowments of LDCs. However, the heterogeneity of LDCs using products more intensively) and reducing overall demand circumstances needs to be taken into account when analyzing for product services must be accounted differently depending on major trends in the evolution of the group. A report prepared by the country’s income and development levels. Demand reduction the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change strategies are more relevant for developed countries because (UNFCCC) Secretariat summarizes the findings of 70 Technology of higher levels of consumption. However, some strategies for Needs Assessments (TNA) submitted, including 24 from LDCs. material efficiency such as manufacturing lighter products (e. g., Regarding the relationship between low carbon and sustainable cars) and modal shifts in the transport sector that reduce energy development, the relevant technologies for most of the LDCs are consumption in industry can have an important role in future related to poverty and hunger eradication, avoiding the loss of energy demand (see Chapter 8.4.2.2). resources, time and capital. Almost 80 % of LDCs considered the industrial structure in their TNA, evidencing that they consider LDCs have to be treated separately because of their small this sector as a key element in their development strategies. The manufacturing production base. The share of manufacturing value technologies identified in the industrial sector and the propor- added (MVA) in the GDP of LDCs in 2011 was 9.7 % (7.2 % Africa tion of countries selecting them are: fuel switching (42 %), LDCs; Asia and the Pacific LDCs 13.3 % and no data for Haiti), energy efficiency (35 %), mining (30 %), high efficiency motors while it was 21.8 % in developing countries and 16.5 % in devel- (25 %), and cement production (25 %) (UNFCCC SBSTA, 2009). oped countries. The LDCs’ contribution to world MVA represented only 0.46 % in 2010 (UNIDO, 2011; UN, 2013). A low carbon development strategy facilitated by access to financial resources, technology transfer, technologies, and In most LDCs, the share of extractive industries has increased (in capacity building would contribute to make the deployment of many cases with important economic, social, and environmental national mitigation efforts politically viable. As adaptation is the problems (Maconachie and Hilson, 2013)), while that of manu- priority in almost all LDCs, industrial development strategies and facturing either decreased in importance or stagnated, with the mitigation actions look for synergies with national adaptation exceptions of Tanzania and Ethiopia where their relative share of strategies.

create ‘best available technologies’ and implementing these tech- Energy efficiency has been an important strategy for industry for nologies at scale to define a reference ‘best practice technology’, various reasons for a long time. Over the last four decades there and investing in and controlling installed equipment to raise ‘aver- has been continued improvement in energy efficiency in energy- age performance’ nearer to ‘best practice’ (Dasgupta et al., 2012). intensive industries and ‘best available technologies’ are increas-

754 Chapter 10 Industry

ingly approaching technical limits. However, many options for increased emissions, due to energy used in concrete crushing and energy efficiency improvement remain and there is still significant refinement and because more cement is required to achieve target potential to reduce the gap between actual energy use and the properties (Dosho, 2008). best practice in many industries and in most countries. For all, but particularly for less energy intensive industries, there are still many • Emissions efficiency (G / E): In 2008, 42 % of industrial energy energy efficiency options both for process and system-wide tech- supply was from coal and oil, 20 % from gas, and the remainder nologies and measures. Several detailed analyses related to par- from electricity and direct use of renewable energy sources. These 10 ticular sectors estimate the technical potential of energy efficiency shares are forecast to change to 30 % and 24 % respectively by measures in industry to be approximately up to 25 % (Schäfer, 2035 (IEA, 2011a) resulting in lower emissions per unit of energy, 2005; Allwood et al., 2010; UNIDO, 2011; Saygin et al., 2011b; as discussed in Chapter 7. Switching to natural gas also favours Gutowski et al., 2013). Through innovation, additional reductions more efficient use of energy in industrial combined heat and of approximately up to 20 % in energy intensity may potentially be power (CHP) installations (IEA, 2008, 2009a). For several renew- realized before approaching technological limits in some energy- able sources of energy, CHP (IEA, 2011b) offers useful load bal- intensive industries (Allwood et al., 2010). ancing opportunities if coupled with low-grade heat storage; this issue is discussed further in Chapter 7. The use of wastes and In industry, energy efficiency opportunities are found within sector- biomass in the energy industry is currently limited, but forecast specific processes as well as in systems such as steam systems, to grow (IEA, 2009b). The cement industry incinerates (with due process heating systems (furnaces and boilers), and electric motor care for e. g., dioxins / furans) municipal solid waste and sewage systems (e. g., pumps, fans, air compressor, refrigerators, material sludge in kilns, providing ~17 % of the thermal energy required handling). As a class of technology, electronic control systems help by European Union (EU) cement production in 2004 (IEA ETSAP, to optimize performance of motors, compressors, steam combus- 2010). The European paper industry reports that over 50 % of its tion, heating, etc. and improve plant efficiency cost-effectively with energy supply is from biomass (CEPI, 2012). If electricity genera- both energy savings and emissions benefits, especially for SMEs tion is decarbonized, greater electrification, for example appro- (Masanet, 2010). priate use of heat pumps instead of boilers (IEA, 2009b; HPTCJ, 2010), could also reduce emissions. Solar thermal energy for dry- Opportunities to improve heat management include better heat ing, washing, and evaporation may also be developed further (IEA, exchange between hot and cold gases and fluids, improved insula- 2009c) although to date this has not been implemented widely tion, capture and use of heat in hot products, and use of exhaust (Sims et al., 2011). heat for electricity generation or as an input to lower temperature processes (US DoE, 2004a, 2008). However, the value of these The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that a large part options is in many cases limited by the low temperature of ‘waste of emission reduction in industry will occur by carbon dioxide cap- heat’ — industrial heat exchangers generally require a temperature ture and storage (CCS) (up to 30 % in 2050) (IEA, 2009c). Carbon difference of ~200 °C — and the difficulty of exchanging heat out dioxide capture and storage is largely discussed in Chapter 7. In of solid materials. gas processing (Kuramochi et al., 2012a) and parts of the chemical

industry (ammonia production without downstream use of CO2), Recycling can also help to reduce energy demand, as it can be a there might be early opportunities for application of CCS as the

strategy to create material with less energy. Recycling is already CO2 in vented gas is already highly concentrated (up to 85 %), widely applied for bulk metals (steel, aluminium, and copper in compared to cement or steel (up to 30 %). Industrial utilization of

particular), paper, and glass and leads to an energy saving when CO2 was assessed in the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide producing new material from old avoids the need for further Capture and Storage (SRCCS) (Mazzotti et al., 2005) and it was

energy intensive chemical reactions. Plastics recycling rates in found that potential industrial use of CO2 was rather small and the

Europe are currently around 25 % (Plastics Europe, 2012) due to storage time of CO2 in industrial products often short. Therefore

the wide variety of compositions in common use in small prod- industrial uses of CO2 are unlikely to contribute to a great extent

ucts, and glass recycling saves little energy as the reaction energy to climate change mitigation. However, currently CO2 use is subject is small compared to that needed for melting (Sardeshpande of various industrial RD&DD projects (Research and Development, et al., 2007). Recycling is applied when it is cost effective, but in Demonstration and Diffusion). many cases leads to lower quality materials, is constrained by lack

of supply because collection rates, while high for some materi- • In terms of non-CO2-emissions from industry, HFC-23 emis- als (particularly steel), are not 100 %, and because with growing sions, which arise in HCFC-22 production, can be reduced by

global demand for material, available supply of scrap lags total process optimization and by thermal destruction. N2O emis- demand. Cement cannot be recycled, although concrete can be sions from adipic and nitric acid production have decreased crushed and down-cycled into aggregates or engineering fill. How- almost by half between 1990 and 2010 (EPA, 2012a) due to the ever, although this saves on aggregate production, it may lead to implementation of thermal destruction and secondary catalysts.

755 Industry Chapter 10

Box 10.2 | Service demand reduction and mitigation opportunities in industry sector:

Besides technological mitigation measures, an additional mitiga- Mitigation options for tourism (Gössling, 2010; Becken and Hay, tion option (see Figure 10.2.) for the industry sector involves the 2012) include technical, behavioural, and organizational aspects. end uses of industrial products that provide services to consumers Many mitigation options and potentials are the same as those 10 (e. g., diet, mobility, shelter, clothing, amenities, health care and ser- identified in the transport and buildings chapters (see Chapters 8 vices, hygiene). Assessment of the mitigation potential associated and 9). However, the demand reduction of direct tourism-related with this option is nascent, however, and important knowledge products delivered by the industry in addition to products for gaps exist (for a more general review of sustainable consumption buildings and other infrastructure e. g., snow-lifts and associated and production (SCP) policies, see Section 10.11.3 and 4.4.3). The accessories, artificial snow, etc. can also impact the industry sector nature of the linkage between service demand and the demand as they determine product and material demand of the sector. for industrial products is different and shown here through two Thus, the industry sector has only limited influence on emissions examples representing both a direct and an indirect link: from tourism (via reduction of the embodied emissions), but is affected by decisions in mitigation measures in tourism. For • clothing demand, which is linked directly to the textile indus- example, a sustainable lifestyle resulting in a lower demand for try products (strong link) transportation can reduce demand for steel to manufacture cars and contribute to reducing emissions in the industry sector. • tourism demand, which is linked directly to mobility and shelter demand but also indirectly to industrial materials demand A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (UNWTO et al., 2008) projects (weak link) emissions from tourism to grow by 130 % from 2005 to 2035 globally; notably the emissions of air transport and accommoda- Clothing demand: Even in developed economies, consumers tion will triple. Two alternative scenarios show that the contribu- appear to have no absolute limit to their demand for clothing, and tion of technology is limited in terms of achievable mitigation if prices fall, will continue to purchase more garments: during the potentials and that even when combining technological and period 2000 – 2005, the advent of ‘fast fashion’ in the UK led to behavioural potentials, no significant reduction can be achieved a drop in prices, but an increase in sales equivalent to one third in 2035 compared to 2005. Insufficient technological mitigation more garments per year per person with consequent increases potential and the need for drastic changes in the forms of tourism in material production and hence industrial emissions (Allwood (e. g., reduction in long haul travel; UNWTO et al., 2008), in the et al., 2008). This growth in demand relates to ‘fashion’ and place of tourism (Gössling et al., 2010; Peeters and Landré, 2011) ‘conspicuous consumption’ (Roy and Pal, 2009) rather than ‘need’, and in the uses of leisure time, implying changes in lifestyles and has triggered a wave of interest in concepts like ‘sustainable (Ceron and Dubois, 2005; Dubois et al., 2011) are the limiting lifestyle / fashion’. While much of this interest is related to market- factors. ing new fabrics linked to environmental claims, authors such as Fletcher (2008) have examined the possibility that ‘commodity’ Several studies show that for some countries (e. g., the UK) an clothing, which can be discarded easily, would be used for longer unrestricted growth of tourism would consume the whole carbon and valued more, if given personal meaning by some shared activ- budget compatible with the +2 °C target by 2050 (Bows et al., ity or association. 2009; Scott et al., 2010). However, some authors also point out that by reducing demand in some small subsectors of tourism Tourism demand: GHG emissions triggered by tourism signifi- (e. g., long haul, cruises) effective emission reductions may be

cantly contribute to global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Esti- reached with a minimum of damage to the sector (Peeters and mates show a range between 3.9 % to 6 % of global emissions, Dubois, 2010). with a best estimate of 4.9 % (UNWTO et al., 2008). Worldwide, three quarters (75 %) of tourism-related emissions are generated Tourism is an example of human activity where the discussion of by transport and just over 20 % by accommodation (UNWTO et al., mitigation is not only technology-driven, but strongly correlated 2008). A minority of travellers (frequent travellers using the plane with lifestyles. For many other activities, the question is how over long distances) (Gössling et al., 2009) are responsible for the certain mitigation goals would result in consequences for the greater share of these emissions (Gössling et al., 2005; TEC and activity level with indirect implications for industry sector emis- DEEE, 2008; de Bruijn et al., 2010) (see Sections 8.1.2 and 8.2.1). sions.

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Hydrofluorocarbons used as refrigerants can be replaced by ash from coal-fired power stations can substitute to some extent

alternatives (e. g., ammonia, hydrofluoro-olefins, HC, CO2). for cement clinker. Replacement is also an appropriate measure to reduce HFC emissions from foams (use of alternative blowing agents) or solvent • Using products more intensively (P / S): Products, such as food, uses. Emission reduction (in the case of refrigerants) is possible that are intended to be consumed in use are in many cases used by leak repair, refrigerant recovery and recycling, and proper dis- inefficiently, and estimates show that up to one-third of all food in 10 posal. Emissions of PFCs, SF6 and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) are developed countries is wasted (Gustavsonn et al., 2011). This indi- growing rapidly due to flat panel display manufacturing. Ninety- cates the opportunity for behaviour change to reduce significantly eight percent of these emissions are in China (EPA, 2012a) and the demand for industrial production of what currently becomes can be countered by fuelled combustion, plasma, and catalytic waste without any service provision. In contrast to these consum- technologies. able products, most durable goods are owned in order to deliver a ‘product service’ rather than for their own sake, so potentially the • Material efficiency in production (M / P): Material effi- same level of service could be delivered with fewer products. Using ciency — delivering services with less new material — is a signifi- products for longer could reduce demand for replacement goods, cant opportunity for industrial emissions abatement, that has had and hence reduce industrial emissions (Allwood et al., 2012). New relatively little attention to date (Allwood et al., 2012). Two key business models could foster dematerialization and more intense strategies would significantly improve material efficiency in manu- use of products. The ambition of the ‘sustainable consumption’ facturing existing products: agenda and policies (see Sections 10.11 and 4.4.3) aims towards this goal, although evidence of its application in practice remains • Reducing yield losses in materials production, manufactur- scarce. ing, and construction. Approximately one-tenth of all paper, a quarter of all steel, and a half of all aluminium produced each • Reducing overall demand for product services (S) (see Box year is scrapped (mainly in downstream manufacturing) and 10.2): Industrial emissions would be reduced if overall demand internally recycled — see Figure 10.2. This could be reduced by for product services were reduced (Kainuma et al., 2013) — if the process innovations and new approaches to design (Milford population chose to travel less (e. g., through more domestic tour- et al., 2011). ism or telecommuting), heat or cool buildings only to the degree required, or reduce unnecessary consumption or products. Clear • Re-using old material. A detailed study (Allwood et al., 2012) evidence that, beyond some threshold of development, popula- on re-use of structural steel in construction concluded that tions do not become ‘happier’ (as reflected in a wide range of there are no insurmountable technical barriers to re-use, that socio-economic measures) with increasing wealth, suggests that there is a profit opportunity, and that the potential supply is reduced overall consumption might not be harmful in developed growing. economies (Layard, 2011; Roy and Pal, 2009; GEA, 2012), and a literature questioning the ultimate policy target of GDP growth is • Material efficiency in product design (M / P): Although new growing, albeit without clear prescriptions about implementation steels and production techniques have allowed relative light- (Jackson, 2011). weighting of cars, in practice cars continue to become heavier as they are larger and have more features. However, many products In the rest of this section, the application of these six strategies, where could be one-third lighter without loss of performance in use (Car- it exists, is reviewed for the major emitting industrial sectors. ruth et al., 2011) if design and production were optimized. At present, the high costs of labour relative to materials and other barriers inhibit this opportunity, except in industries such as aerospace 10.4.1 Iron and steel where the cost of design and manufacture for lightness is paid back through reduced fuel use. Substitution of one material by another Steel continues to dominate global metal production, with total crude is often technically possible (Ashby, 2009), but options for material steel production of around 1,490 Mt in 2011. In 2011, China produced substitution as an abatement strategy are limited: global steel and 46 % of the world’s steel. Other significant producers include the cement production exceeds 200 and 380 (kg / cap) / yr respectively, EU-27 (12 %), the United States (8 %), Japan (7 %), India (5 %) and and no other materials capable of delivering the same functions Russia (5 %) (WSA, 2012b). Seventy percent (70 %) of all steel is made are available in comparable quantities; epoxy based composite from pig iron produced by reducing iron oxide in a blast furnace using materials and magnesium alloys have significantly higher embod- coke or coal before reduction in an oxygen blown converter (WSA, ied energy than steel or aluminium (Ashby, 2009) (although for 2011). Steel is also made from scrap (23 %) or from iron oxide reduced vehicles this may be worthwhile if it allows significant savings in in solid state (direct reduced iron, 7 %) melted in electric-arc furnaces energy during use); wood is kiln dried, so in effect is energy inten- before refining. The specific energy intensity of steel production var- sive (Puettmann and Wilson, 2005); and blast furnace slag and fly ies by technology and region. Global steel sector emissions were esti-

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mated to be 2.6 GtCO2 in 2006, including direct and indirect emissions et al. (2012) estimate that nearly 30 % of all steel produced in 2008 (IEA, 2009c; Oda et al., 2012). could be re-used in future. However, in many economies steel is relatively cheap in comparison to labour, and this difference is amplified by Energy efficiency. The steel industry is pursuing: improved heat and tax policy, so economic logic currently drives a preference for material energy recovery from process gases, products and waste streams; inefficiency to reduce labour costs (Skelton and Allwood, 2013b). improved fuel delivery through pulverized coal injection; improved fur- 10 nace designs and process controls; and reduced number of temperature Reduced product and service demand: Commercial buildings in cycles through better process coupling such as in Endless Strip Produc- developed economies are currently built with up to twice the steel tion (ESP) (Arvedi et al., 2008) and use of various energy efficiency required by safety codes, and are typically replaced after around technologies (Worrell et al., 2010; Xu et al., 2011a) including coke dry 30 – 60 years (Michaelis and Jackson, 2000; Hatayama et al., 2010; quenching and top pressure recovery turbines (LBNL and AISI, 2010). Pauliuk et al., 2012). The same service (e. g., office space provision) Efforts to promote energy efficiency and to reduce the production of could be achieved with one quarter of the steel, if safety codes were hazardous wastes are the subject of both international guidelines on met accurately and buildings replaced not as frequently, but after 80 environmental monitoring (International Finance Corporation, 2007) years. Similarly, there is a strong correlation between vehicle fuel con- and regional benchmarks on best practice techniques (EC, 2012a). sumption and vehicle mass. For example, in the UK, 4- or 5-seater cars are used for an average of around 4 hours per week by 1.6 people Emissions efficiency: The coal and coke used in conventional iron-mak- (DfT, 2011), so a move towards smaller, lighter fuel efficient vehicles ing is emissions intensive; switching to gas-based direct reduced iron (FEVs), used for more hours per week by more people could lead to a (DRI) and oil and natural gas injection has been used, where economic four-fold or more reduction in steel requirements, while providing a and practicable. However, DRI production currently occurs at smaller similar mobility service. There is a well-known tradeoff between the scale than large blast furnaces (Cullen et al., 2012), and any emissions emissions embodied in producing goods and those generated during benefit depends on the emissions associated with increased electric- use, so product life extension strategies should account for different ity use for the required electric arc furnace (EAF) process. Charcoal, anticipated rates of improvement in embodied and use-phase emis- another coke substitute, is currently used for iron-making, notably in sions (Skelton and Allwood, 2013a). Brazil (Taibi et al.; Henriques Jr. et al., 2010), and processing to improve charcoal’s mechanical properties is another substitute under development, although extensive land area is required to produce wood for 10.4.2 Cement charcoal. Other substitutions include use of ferro-coke as a reductant (Takeda et al., 2011) and the use of biomass and waste plastics to dis- Emissions in cement production arise from fuel combustion (to heat

place coal (IEA, 2009c). The Ultra-Low CO2 Steelmaking (ULCOS) pro- limestone, clay, and sand to 1450 °C) and from the calcination reaction.

gramme has identified four production routes for further development: Fuel emissions (0.8 GtCO2 (IEA, 2009d), around 40 % of the total) can be top-gas recycling applied to blast furnaces, HIsarna (a smelt reduc- reduced through improvements in energy efficiency and fuel switching tion technology), advanced direct reduction, and electrolysis. The first while process emissions (the calcination reaction, ~50 % of the total) are three of these routes would require CCS (discussion of the costs, risks, unavoidable, so can be reduced only through reduced demand, including

deployment barriers and policy aspects of CCS can be found in Sections through improved material efficiency. The remaining 10 % of CO2 emis- 7.8.2, 7.9, 7.10, and 7.12), and the fourth would reduce emissions only sions arise from grinding and transport (Bosoaga et al., 2009). if powered by low carbon electricity. Hydrogen fuel might reduce emissions if a cost effective emissions free source of hydrogen were avail- Energy efficiency: Estimates of theoretical minimum primary energy able at scale, but at present this is not the case. Hydrogen reduction consumption for thermal (fuel) energy use ranges between 1.6 and is being investigated in the United States (Pinegar et al., 2011) and 1.85 GJ / t (Locher, 2006). For large new dry kilns, the ‘best possible’ in Japan as Course 50 (Matsumiya, 2011). Course 50 aims to reduce energy efficiency is 2.7 GJ / t clinker with electricity consumption of 80

CO2 emissions by approximately 30 % by 2050 through capture, sepa- kWh / t clinker or lower (Muller and Harnish, 2008). ‘International best ration and recovery. Molten oxide electrolysis (Wang et al., 2011) could practice’ final energy ranges from 1.8 to 2.1 to 2.9 GJ / t cement and

reduce emissions if a low or CO2-free electricity source was available. primary energy ranges from 2.15 to 2.5 to 3.4 GJ / t cement for produc- However this technology is only at the very early stages of develop- tion of blast furnace slag, fly ash, and Portland cement, respectively

ment and identifying a suitable anode material has proved difficult. (Worrell et al., 2008b). Klee et al. (2011) shows that CO2 emissions intensities have declined in most regions of the world, with a 2009 Material efficiency: Material efficiency offers significant potential for global average intensity (excluding emissions from the use of alterna-

emissions reductions (Allwood et al., 2010) and cost savings (Roy et tive fuels) of 633 kg CO2 per tonne of cementitious product, a decline al., 2013) in the iron and steel sector. Milford et al. (2011) examined of 6 % since 2005 and 16 % since 1990. Many options still exist to the impact of yield losses along the steel supply chain and found that improve the energy efficiency of cement manufacturing (Muller and 26 % of global liquid steel is lost as process scrap, so its elimination Harnish, 2008; Worrell et al., 2008a; Worrell and Galitsky, 2008; APP,

could have reduced sectoral CO2 emissions by 16 % in 2008. Cooper 2010).

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Emissions efficiency and fuel switching: The majority of cement kilns remain undamaged. Concrete blocks can be reused, as masonry blocks burn coal (IEA / WBCSD, 2009), but fossil or biomass wastes can also be and bricks are reused already, but to date there is little published lit- burned. While these alternatives have a lower CO2 intensity depend- erature in this area. ing on their exact composition (Sathaye et al., 2011) and can result in reduced overall CO2 emissions from the cement industry (CEMBUREAU, Reduced product and service demand: Cement, in concrete, is used in 2009), their use can also increase overall energy use per tonne of clin- the construction of buildings and infrastructure. Reducing demand for ker produced if the fuels require pre-treatment such as drying (Hand, these products can be achieved by extending their lifespans or using 10 2007). Waste fuels have been used in cement production for the past them more intensely. Buildings and infrastructure have lifetimes less 20 years in Europe, Japan, the United States, and Canada (GTZ / Holcim, than 80 years — less than 40 years in East Asia — (Hatayama et al., 2006; Genon and Brizio, 2008); the Netherlands and Switzerland use 2010), however their core structural elements (those that drive demand 83 % and 48 % waste, respectively, as a cement fuel (WBCSD, 2005). It for concrete) could last over 200 years if well maintained. Reduced is important that wastes are burned in accordance with strict environ- demand for building and infrastructure services could be achieved by mental guidelines as emissions resulting from such wastes can cause human settlement design, increasing the number of people living and adverse environmental impacts such as extremely high concentrations working in each building, or decreasing per-capita demand for utilities of particulates in ambient air, ground-level ozone, acid rain, and water (water, electricity, waste), but has as yet had little attention. quality deterioration (Karstensen, 2007)8.

Cement kilns can be fitted to harvest CO2, which could then be stored, 10.4.3 Chemicals (plastics / fertilizers / others) but this has yet to be piloted and “commercial-scale CCS in the cement industry is still far from deployment” (Naranjo et al., 2011). CCS poten- The chemicals industry produces a wide range of different products on tial in the cement sector has been investigated in several recent stud- scales ranging over several orders of magnitude. This results in meth- ies: IEAGHG, 2008; Barker et al., 2009; Croezen and Korteland, 2010; odological and data collection challenges, in contrast to other sectors Bosoaga et al., 2009. A number of emerging technologies aim to such as iron and steel or cement (Saygin et al., 2011a). However, emis- reduce emissions and energy use in cement production (Hasanbeigi sions in this sector are dominated by a relatively small number of key et al., 2012b), but there are regulatory, supply chain, product confi- outputs: ethylene, ammonia, nitric acid, adipic acid and caprolactam dence and technical barriers to be overcome before such technologies used in producing plastics, fertilizer, and synthetic fibres. Emissions (such as geopolymer cement) could be widely adopted (Van Deventer arise both from the use of energy in production and from the venting et al., 2012). of by-products from the chemical processes. The synthesis of chlorine in chlor-alkali electrolysis is responsible for about 40 % of the electric- Material efficiency: Almost all cement is used in concrete to construct ity demand of the chemical industry. buildings and infrastructure (van Oss and Padovani, 2002). For concrete, which is formed by mixing cement, water, sand, and aggregates, Energy efficiency: Steam cracking for the production of light olefins, two applicable material efficiency strategies are: using less cement such as ethylene and propylene, is the most energy consuming process initially and reusing concrete components at end of first product life in the chemical industry, and the pyrolysis section of steam cracking (distinct from down-cycling of concrete into aggregate which is widely consumes about 65 % of the total process energy (Ren et al., 2006). applied). Less cement can be used by placing concrete only where Upgrading all steam cracking plants to best practice technology could necessary, for example Orr et al. (2010) use curved fabric moulds to reduce energy intensity by 23 % (Saygin et al., 2011a; b) with a fur- reduce concrete mass by 40 % compared with a standard, prismatic ther 12 % saving possible with best available technology. Switching shape. By using higher-strength concrete, less material is needed; CO2 to a biomass-based route to avoid steam cracking could reduce CO2 savings of 40 % have been reported on specific projects using ‘ultra- intensity (Ren and Patel, 2009) but at the cost of higher energy use, high-strength’ concretes (Muller and Harnish, 2008). Portland cement and with high land-use requirements. Fertilizer production accounts comprises 95 % clinker and 5 % gypsum, but cement can be produced for around 1.2 % of world energy consumption (IFA, 2009), mostly with lower ratios of clinker through use of additives such as blast fur- to produce ammonia (NH3). 22 % energy savings are possible (Say- nace slag, fly ash from power plants, limestone, and natural or artifi- gin et al., 2011b) by upgrading all plants to best practice technology. cial pozzolans. The weighted average clinker-to-cement ratio for the Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted during production of adipic and nitric companies participating in the WBCSD GNR project was 76 % in 2009 acids. By 2020 annual emissions from these industries are estimated

(WBCSD, 2011). In China, this ratio was 63 % in 2010 (NDRC, 2011a). to be 125 MtCO2eq (EPA, 2012a). Many options exist to reduce emis- In India the ratio is 80 % but computer optimization is improving this sions, depending on plant operating conditions (Reimer et al., 2000). (India Planning Commission, 2007). Reusing continuous concrete ele- A broad survey of options in the petrochemicals industry is given by ments is difficult because it requires elements to be broken up but Neelis et al. (2008). Plastics recycling saves energy, but to produce a high value recycled material, a relatively pure waste stream is required: 8 See also: http: / / www2.epa. gov / enforcement / cement-manufacturing-enforce impurities greatly degrade the properties of the recycled material. ment-initiative Some plastics can be produced from mixed waste streams, but gen-

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erally have a lower value than virgin material. A theoretical estimate 2006; Worrell et al., 2008b; Kong et al., 2012) such as black liquor gas- suggest that increasing use of combined heat and power plants in the ification, which uses the by-product of the chemical pulping process chemical and petrochemical sector from current levels of 10 to 25 % to increase the energy efficiency of pulp and paper mills (Naqvi et al., up to 100 % would result in energy savings up to 2 EJ for the activity 2010). With commercial maturity expected within the next decade level in 2006 (IEA, 2009e). (Eriksson and Harvey, 2004), black liquor gasification can be used as a waste-to-energy method with the potential to achieve higher over- 10 Emissions efficiency: There are limited opportunities for innovation all energy efficiency (38 % for electricity generation) than the conven- in the current process of ammonia production via the Haber-Bosch tional recovery boiler (9 – 14 % efficiency) while generating an energy- process (Erisman et al., 2008). Possible improvements relate to the rich syngas from the liquor (Naqvi et al., 2010). The syngas can also be

introduction of new N2O emission reduction technologies in nitric utilized as a feedstock for production of renewable motor fuels such

acid production such as high-temperature catalytic N2O decomposi- as bio-methanol, dimethyl ether, and FT-diesel or hydrogen (Pettersson tion (Melián-Cabrera et al., 2004) which has been shown to reduce and Harvey, 2012). Gasification combined cycle systems have poten-

N2O emissions by up to 70 – 90 % (BIS Production Partner, 2012; Yara, tial disadvantages (Kramer et al., 2009), including high energy invest- 2012). While implementation of this technology has been largely ments to concentrate sufficient black liquor solids and higher lime kiln completed in regions pursuing carbon emission reduction (e. g., the and causticizer loads compared to Tomlinson systems. Paper recycling EU through the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) or China and other generally saves energy and may reduce emissions (although electric- developing countries through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), ity in some primary paper making is derived from biomass-powered the implementation of this technology still offers large mitigation CHP plants) and rates can be increased (Laurijssen et al., 2010b). Paper potential in other regions like the former Soviet Union and the United recycling is also important as competition for biomass will increase States (Kollmus and Lazarus, 2010). Fuel switching can also lead to with population growth and increased use of biomass for fuel. significant emission reductions and energy savings. For example, natu-

ral gas based ammonia production results in 36 % emission reductions Emissions efficiency: Direct CO2 emissions from European pulp and

compared to naphtha, 47 % compared to fuel oil and 58 % compared paper production reduced from 0.57 to 0.34 ktCO2 per kt of paper to coal. The total potential mitigation arising from this fuel switch- between 1990 and 2011, while indirect emissions reduced from 0.21

ing would amount to 27 MtCO2eq / year GHG emissions savings (IFA, to 0.09 ktCO2 per kt of paper (CEPI, 2012). Combined heat and power 2009). (CHP) accounted for 95 % of total on-site electricity produced by EU paper makers in 2011, compared to 88 % in 1990 (CEPI, 2012), so has Material efficiency: Many of the material efficiency measures identi- little further potential in Europe, but may offer opportunities glob- fied above can be applied to the use of plastics, but this has had little ally. The global pulp and paper industry usually has ready access to attention to date, although Hekkert et al. (2000) anticipate a potential biomass resources and it generates approximately a third of its own 51 % saving in emissions associated with the use of plastic packaging energy needs from biomass (IEA, 2009c), 53 % in the EU (CEPI, 2012).

in the Netherlands from application of a number of material efficiency Paper recycling can have a positive impact on energy intensity and CO2 strategies. More efficient use of fertilizer gives benefits both in reduced emissions over the total lifecycle of paper production (Miner, 2010;

direct emissions of N2O from the fertilizer itself and from reduced fertil- Laurijssen et al., 2010). Recycling rates in Europe and North America izer production (Smith et al., 2008). reached 70 % and 67 % in 2011, respectively9 (CEPI, 2012), leaving a small range for improvement when considering the limit of 81 % estimated by CEPI (2006). In Europe, the share of recovered paper used 10.4.4 Pulp and paper in paper manufacturing has increased from roughly 33 % in 1991 to around 44 % in 2009 (CEPI, 2012). GHG fluxes from forestry are dis- Global paper production has increased steadily during the last three cussed in Section 11.2.3. decades (except for a minor production decline associated with the 2008 financial crisis) (FAO, 2013), with global demand expansion cur- Material efficiency: Higher material efficiency could be achieved rently driven by developing nations. Fuel and energy use are the main through increased use of duplex printing, print on demand, improved sources of GHG emissions during the forestry, pulping, and manufac- recycling yields and the manufacturing of lighter paper. Recycling yields turing stages of paper production. could be improved by the design of easy to remove inks and adhesives and less harmful de-inking chemicals; paper weights for newspapers Energy efficiency: A broad range of energy efficiency technologies are and office paper could be reduced from 45 and 80 g / m2 to 42 and 70 available for this sector, reviewed by Kramer et al. (2009), and Laurijs- g / m2 respectively and might lead to a 37 % saving in paper used for sen et al. (2012). Over half the energy used in paper making is to create current service levels (Van den Reek, 1999; Hekkert et al., 2002). heat for drying paper after it has been laid and Laurijssen et al. (2010) estimate that this could be reduced by ~32 % by the use of additives, 9 American Forest and Paper Association, Paper Recycles — Statistics — Paper & an increased dew point, and improved heat recovery. Energy savings Paperboard Recovery http: / / www.paperrecycles. org / statistics / paper-paperboard- may also be obtained from emerging technologies (Jacobs and IPST, recovery.

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Reduced demand: Opportunities to reduce demand for paper prod- improved end of life management and even new technologies for sep- ucts in the future include printing on demand, removing print to allow arating the different alloys (Liu et al., 2012a). paper re-use (Leal-Ayala et al., 2012), and substituting e-readers for paper. The latter has been the subject of substantial academic research Emissions efficiency: Data on emissions intensities for a range of non- (e. g., Gard and Keoleian, 2002; Reichart and Hischier, 2003) although ferrous metals are given by (Sjardin, 2003). The aluminium industry the substitution of electronic media for paper has mixed environmental alone contributed 3 % of CO emissions from industry in 2006 (Allwood 2 10 outcomes, with no clear statistics yet on whether such media reduces et al., 2010). In addition to CO2 emissions resulting from electrode and paper demand, or whether it leads to a net reduction in emissions. reductant use, the production of non-ferrous metals can result in the emission of high-global warming potential (GWP) GHGs, for example

PFCs (such as CF4) in aluminium or SF6 in magnesium. PFCs result from 10.4.5 Non-ferrous (aluminium / others) carbon in the anode and fluorine in the cryolite. The reaction can be minimized by controlling the process to prevent a drop in alumina con- Annual production of non-ferrous metals is small compared to steel, centrations, which triggers the process10. and is dominated by aluminium, with 56 Mt made globally in 2009, of which 18 Mt was through secondary (recycled) production. Production Material efficiency: For aluminium, there are significant carbon abate- is expected to rise to 97 Mt by 2020 (IAI, 2009). Magnesium is also ment opportunities in the area of material efficiency and demand significant, but with global primary production of only 653 Kt in 2009 reduction. From liquid aluminium to final product, the yield in form- (IMA, 2009), is dwarfed by aluminium. ing and fabrication is only 59 %, which could be improved by near-net shape casting and blanking and stamping process innovation (Milford Energy efficiency: Aluminium production is particularly associated with et al., 2011). For chip scrap produced from machining operations (in high electricity demand. Indirect (electricity-related) emissions account aluminium, for example (Tekkaya et al., 2009), or magnesium (Wu et al., for over 80 % of total GHG emissions in aluminium production. The 2010)) extrusion, processes are being developed to bond scrap in the sector accounts for 3.5 % of global electricity consumption (IEA 2008) solid state to form a relatively high quality product potentially offering and energy accounts for nearly 40 % of aluminium production costs. energy savings of up to 95 % compared to re-melting. Aluminium building components (window frames, curtain walls, and cladding) could be Aluminium can be made from raw materials (bauxite) or through reused when a building is demolished (Cooper and Allwood, 2012) and recycling. Best practice primary aluminium production — from alu- more modular product designs would allow longer product lives and mina production through ingot casting — consumes 174 GJ / t primary an overall reduction in demand for new materials (Cooper et al., 2012). energy (accounting for electricity production, transmission, distribution losses) and 70.6 GJ / t final energy (Worrell et al., 2008b). Best practice for electrolysis — which consumes roughly 85 % of the energy 10.4.6 Food processing used for production of primary aluminium — is about 47 GJ / t final energy while the theoretical energy requirement is 22 GJ / t final energy The food industry as discussed in this chapter includes all process- (BCS Inc., 2007). Best practice for recycled aluminium production is 7.6 ing beyond the farm gate, while everything before is in the agricul- GJ / t primary energy and 2.5 GJ / t final energy (Worrell et al., 2008b), ture industry and discussed in Chapter 11. In the developed world, although in reality, recycling uses much more energy due to pre-pro- the emissions released beyond the farm gate are approximately equal cessing of scrap, ‘sweetening’ with virgin aluminium and downstream to those released before. Garnett (2011) suggests that provision of processing after casting. The U. S. aluminium industry consumes human food drives around 17.7 GtCO2eq in total. almost three times the theoretical minimum energy level (BCS Inc., 2007). The options for new process development in aluminium pro- Energy efficiency: The three largest uses of energy in the food industry duction — multipolar electrolysis cells, inert anodes and carbothermic in the United States are animal slaughtering and processing, wet corn reactions — have not yet reached commercial scale (IEA, 2012d). The milling, and fruit and vegetable preservation, accounting for 19 %, IEA estimates that application of best available technology can reduce 15 %, and 14 % of total use, respectively (US EIA, 2009). Increased use energy use for aluminium production by about 10 % compared with of heat exchanger networks or heat pumps (Fritzson and Berntsson, current levels (IEA, 2012d). 2006; Sakamoto et al., 2011), combined heat and power, mechanical dewatering compared to rotary drying (Masanet et al., 2008), and At present, post-consumer scrap makes up only 20 % of total alu- thermal and mechanical vapour recompression in evaporation further minium recycling (Cullen and Allwood, 2013), which is dominated by enhanced by use of reverse osmosis can deliver energy use efficiency. internal ‘home’ or ‘new’ scrap (see Figure 10.2). As per capita stock Many of these technologies could also be used in cooking and drying levels saturate in the 21st century, there could be a shift from primary in other parts of the food industry. Savings in energy for refrigeration to secondary aluminium production (Liu et al., 2012a) if recycling rates can be increased, and the accumulation of different alloying elements 10 http: / / www.aluminum. org / Content / NavigationMenu / TheIndustry / Environment / in the scrap stream can be controlled. These challenges will require ReducingPFCEmissionsintheAluminumIndustry / default.html.

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could be made with better insulation and reduced ventilation in fridges leather manufacturing in 2009. In the United States, about 45 % of and freezers. Dairy processing is also among the most energy- and the final energy used for textile mills is natural gas, about 35 % is net carbon-intensive activities within the global food production industry, electricity (site), and 14 % coal (US EIA, 2009). In China, final energy

with estimated annual emissions of over 128 MtCO2 (Xu and Flapper, consumption for textiles production is dominated by coal (39 %) and 2009, 2011). Within dairy processing, cheese production is the most site electricity (38 %) (NBS, 2012). In the US textile industry, motor energy intensive sector (Xu et al., 2009). Ramirez and Block (2006) driven systems and steam systems dominate energy end uses. Around 10 report that EU dairy operations, having improved in the 1980s and 36 % of the energy input to the US textile industry is lost onsite, 1990s, are now reaching a plateau of energy intensity, but Brush et al. with motor driven systems responsible for 13 %, followed by energy (2011) provide a survey of best practice opportunities for energy effi- distribution and boiler losses of 8 % and 7 %, respectively (US DoE, ciency in dairy operations. 2004b).

Emissions efficiency: The most cost effective reduction in CO2 emis- Energy and emissions efficiency: Numerous energy efficiency tech- sions from food production is by switching from heavy fuel oil to nat- nologies and measures exist that are applicable to the textile indus- ural gas. Other ways of improving emissions efficiency involve using try (CIPEC, 2007; Hasanbeigi and Price, 2012). For Taiwan, Province of lower-emission modes of transport (Garnett, 2011). In transporting China, Hong et al. (2010) report energy savings of about 1 % in tex- food, there is a tradeoff between local sourcing and producing the tile industry following the adoption of energy-saving measures in 303 food in areas where there are other environmental benefits (Sim et al., firms (less than 10 % of the total number of local textile firms in 2005)

2007; Edwards-Jones et al., 2008). Landfill emissions associated with (Chen Chiu, 2009). In India, CO2 emissions reductions of at least 13 % food waste could be reduced by use of anaerobic digestion processes were calculated based on implementation of operations and mainte- (Woods et al., 2010). nance improvements, fuel switching, and adoption of five energy-efficient technologies (Velavan et al., 2009). Demand reduction: Overall demand for food could be reduced without sacrificing well-being (GEA, 2012). Up to one-third of food produced Demand reduction: see Box 10.2. for human consumption is wasted in either in the production / retail- ing stage, or by consumers (Gunders (2012) estimates 40 % waste in the United States). Gustavsonn et al. (2011) suggest that, in developed 10.4.8 Mining countries, consumer behaviour could be changed, and ‘best-before- dates’ reviewed. Increasing cooling demand, the globalization of the Energy efficiency: The energy requirements of mining are dominated food system with corresponding transport distances, and the growing by grinding (comminution) and the use of diesel-powered material importance of processed convenience food are also important drivers handling equipment (US DoE, 2007; Haque and Norgate, 2013). The (GEA, 2012). Globally, approximately 1.5 billion out of 5 billion people major area of energy usage — up to 40 % of the total — is in elec- over the age of 20 are overweight and 500 million are obese (Bed- tricity for comminution (Smith, 2012). Underground mining requires dington et al., 2011). Demand for high-emission food such as meat and more energy than surface mining due to greater requirements for dairy products could be replaced by demand for other, lower-emission hauling, ventilation, water pumping, and other operations (US DoE, foods. Meat and dairy products contribute to half of the emissions from 2007). Strategies for GHG mitigation are diverse. An overall scheme food (when the emissions from the up-stream processes are included) to reduce energy consumption is the implementation of strategies according to Garnett (2009), while Stehfest et al. (2009) puts the figure that upgrade the ore body concentration before crushing and grind- at 18 % of global GHG emissions, and Wirsenius (2003) estimates that ing, through resource characterization by geo-metallurgical data and two-thirds of food-related phytomass is consumed by animals, which methods (Bye, 2005, 2007, 2011; CRC ORE, 2011; Smith, 2012). Selec- provide just 13 % of the gross energy of human diets. Furthermore, tive blast design, combined with ore sorting and gangue rejection, demand is set to double by 2050, as developing nations grow wealth- significantly improve the grade of ore being fed to the crusher and ier and eat more meat and dairy foods (Stehfest et al., 2009; Garnett, grinding mill, by as much as 2.5 fold. This leads to large reductions of 2009). In order to maintain a constant total demand for meat and energy usage compared to business-as-usual (CRC ORE, 2011; Smith, dairy, Garnett (2009) suggests that by 2050 average per capita con- 2012). sumption should be around 0.5 kg meat and 1 litre of milk per week, which is around the current averages in the developing world today. There is also a significant potential to save energy in comminution through the following options: more crushing, less grinding, using more energy-efficient crushing technologies, removing minerals and 10.4.7 Textiles and leather gangue from the crushing stage, optimizing the particle size feed for grinding mills from crushing mills, selecting target product size(s) at In 2009, textiles and leather manufacturing consumed 2.15 EJ final each stage of the circuit, using advanced flexible comminution circuits, energy globally. Global consumption is dominated by Asia, which using more efficient grinding equipment, and by improving the design was responsible for 65 % of total world energy use for textiles and of new comminution equipment (Smith, 2012).

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Other important energy savings opportunities are in the following areas: of this section focuses mainly on the meso‐ and macro‐levels as micro- a) separation processes — mixers, agitators and froth flotation cells, b) level options have already been covered in Section 10.4. drying and dewatering in mineral processing, c) materials movement, d) air ventilation and conditioning opportunities, e) processing site energy demand management and waste heat recovery options, f) technology 10.5.1 Industrial clusters and parks specific for lighting, motors, pumps and fans and air compressor sys- (meso-level) tems, and g) improvement in energy efficiency of product transport 10 from mine site to port (Rathmann, 2007; Raaz and Mentges, 2009; Dan- Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) often suffer not only from dif- iel et al., 2010; Norgate and Haque, 2010; DRET, 2011; Smith, 2012). ficulties arising due to their size and lack of access to information, but also from being isolated while in operation (Sengenberger and Pyke, Recycling represents an important source of world’s metal supply and 1992). Clustering of SMEs usually in the form of industrial parks can it can be increased as a means of waste reduction (see Section 10.14) facilitate growth and competitiveness (Schmitz, 1995). In terms of and thus energy saving in metals production. In recent years, around implementation of mitigation options, SMEs in clusters / parks can bene- 36 % of world’s gold supply was from recycled scrap (WGC, 2011), fit from by-products exchange (including waste heat) and infrastructure 25 % of silver (SI and GFMS, 2013), and 35 % of copper (ICSG, 2012). sharing, as well as joint purchase (e. g., of energy efficient technologies). Cooperation in eco‐industrial parks (EIPs) reduces the cumulative Emissions efficiency: Substitution of onsite fossil fuel electricity gener- environmental impact of the whole industrial park (Geng and Dober- ators with renewable energy is an important mitigation strategy. Cost stein, 2008). Such an initiative reduces the total consumption of virgin effectiveness depends on the characteristics of each site (Evans & Peck, materials and final waste and improves the efficiency of companies and 2011; Smith, 2012). their competitiveness. Since the extraction and transformation of virgin materials is usually energy intensive, EIP efforts can abate industrial Material efficiency: In the extraction of metal ores, one of the greatest GHG emissions. For example, in order to encourage target-oriented challenges for energy efficiency enhancement is that of the recovery cooperation, Chinese ‘eco‐industrial park standards’ contain quantita- ratio, which refers to the percentage of valuable ore within the total tive indicators for material reduction and recycling, as well as pollu- mine material. Lower grades inevitably require greater amounts of tion control (Geng et al., 2009). Two pioneering eco‐industrial parks in material to be moved per unit of product. The recovery ratio for metals China achieved over 80 % solid waste reuse ratio and over 82 % indus- averages about 4.5 % (US DoE, 2007). The ‘grade’ of recyclable materi- trial water reuse ratio during 2002 – 2005 (Geng et al., 2008). The Japa- als is often greater than the one of ores being currently mined; for nese eco‐town project in Kawasaki achieved substitution of 513,000 this reason, advancing recycling for mineral commodities would bring tonnes of raw material, resulting in the avoidance of 1 % of the current improvements in the overall energy efficiency (IIED, 2002). total landfill in Japan during 1997 – 2006 (van Berkel et al., 2009).

In order to encourage industrial symbiosis11 at the industrial cluster level, different kinds of technical infrastructure (e. g., pipelines) as well 10.5 Infrastructure and as non-technical infrastructure (e. g., information exchange platforms) systemic perspectives are necessary so that both material and energy use can be optimized (Côté and Hall, 1995). Although additional investment for infrastructure building is unavoidable, such an investment can bring both economic and environmental benefits. In India there have been several Improved understanding of interactions among different industries, instances where the government has taken proactive approaches to and between industry and other economic sectors, is becoming more provide land and infrastructure, access to water, non-conventional important in a mitigation and sustainable development context. Strat- (MSW-based) power to private sector industries (such as chemicals, egies adopted in other sectors may lead to increased (or decreased) textile, paper, pharmaceutical companies, cement) operating in clusters emissions from the industry sector. Collaborative activities within and (IBEF, 2013). A case study in the Tianjin Economic Development Area in across the sector may enhance the outcome of climate change miti- northern China indicates that the application of an integrated water gation. Initiatives to adopt a system‐wide view face a barrier as cur- optimization model (e. g., reuse of treated wastewater by other firms) rently practiced system boundaries often pose a challenge. A systemic can reduce the total water related costs by 10.4 %, fresh water con- approach can be at different levels, namely, at the micro‐level (within sumption by 16.9 % and wastewater discharge by 45.6 % (Geng et al., a single company, such as process integration and cleaner production), 2007). As an additional consequence, due to the strong energy-water the meso‐level (between three or more companies, such as eco‐indus- nexus, energy use and release of GHG emissions related to fresh water trial parks) and the macro‐level (cross‐sectoral cooperation, such as provision or wastewater treatment can be reduced. urban symbiosis or regional eco‐industrial network). Systemic collaborative activities can reduce the total consumption of materials and 11 Note that industrial symbiosis is further covered in Chapter 4 (Sustainable Devel- energy and can contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions. The rest opment and Equity), Section 4.4.3.3

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10.5.2 Cross-sectoral cooperation (macro-level) demand for energy-saving products within the industry sector can be observed over a long period of time (ICCA, 2009). Thus, for a careful Besides inter-industry cooperation, opportunities arise from the geo- assessment of mitigation options, a lifecycle perspective is needed so graphic proximity of urban and industrial areas, leading to transfer that a holistic emission picture (including embodied emissions) can be of urban refuse as a resource to industrial applications, and vice presented. For instance, the increase in GHG emissions from increased versa (Geng et al., 2010a). For instance, the cement industry can aluminium production could under specific circumstances be larger 10 accept as their inputs not only virgin materials such as limestone than the GHG savings from vehicle weight reduction (Geyer, 2008). and coal, but also various wastes / industrial by‐products (see Sec- Kim et al. (2010) have, however, indicated that in about two decades,

tion 10.4), thus contributing up to 15 – 20 % CO2 emission reduction closed‐loop recycling can significantly reduce the impacts of alumin- (Morimoto et al., 2006; Hashimoto et al., 2010). In Northern Europe ium‐intensive vehicles. (e. g., Sweden, Finland, and Denmark), for example, both exhaust heat from industries and heat generated from burning municipal Increasing demand on end-use related mitigation technologies could wastes are supplied to local municipal users through district heat- contribute to potential material shortages. Moss et al. (2011) exam- ing (Holmgren and Gebremedhin, 2004). Industrial waste can also ined market and political risks for 14 metals that are used in signifi- be used to reduce conventional fuel demand in other sectors. For cant quantities in the technologies of the EU’s Strategic Energy Tech- example, the European bio‐DME project12 aims to supply heavy‐duty nology Plan (SET Plan) so that metal requirements and associated trucks and industry with dimethyl‐ether fuel made from black liquor bottlenecks in green technologies, such as electric vehicles, low‐car- produced by the pulp industry. However, careful design of regional bon lighting, electricity storage and fuel cells and hydrogen, can be recycling networks has to be undertaken because different types of recognized. waste have different characteristics and optimal collection and recycling boundaries and therefore need different infrastructure support Following a systemic perspective enables the identification of unex- (Chen et al., 2012). pected outcomes and even potential conflicts between different targets when implementing mitigation options. For example, the quality The reuse of materials recovered from urban infrastructures can reduce of many recycled metals is maintained solely through the addition of the demand for primary products (e. g., ore) and thus contribute to cli- pure primary materials (Verhoef et al., 2004), thus perpetuating the use mate change mitigation in extractive industries (Klinglmair and Fellner, of these materials and creating a challenge for the set up of closed 2010). So far, reuse of specific materials is only partly established and loop recycling (e. g., automotive aluminium; Kim et al., 2011). Addition- the potential for future urban mining is growing as the urban stock ally, due to product retention (the period of use) and growing demand, of materials still increases. While in the 2011 fiscal year in Japan only secondary materials needed for recycling are limited. 5.79 Mt of steel scrap came from the building sector, 13.6 Mt were consumed by the building sector. In total, urban stock of steel is estimated to be 1.33 Gt in Japan where the total annual crude steel production was 0.106 Gt (NSSMC, 2013). 10.6 Climate change feedback and interaction 10.5.3 Cross-sectoral implications of mitigation with adaptation efforts

Currently much attention is focused on improving energy efficiency There is currently a distinct lack of knowledge on how climate change within the industry sector (Yeo and Gabbai, 2011). However, many mit- feedbacks may impact mitigation options and potentials as well as igation strategies adopted in other sectors significantly affect activities costs in industry13. of the industrial sector and industry-related GHG emissions. For example, consumer preference for lightweight cars can incentivize material Insights into potential synergy effects (how adaptation options substitution for car manufacturing (e. g., potential lightweight materi- could reduce emissions in industry) or tradeoffs (how adaptation als: see Chapter 8), growing demand for rechargeable vehicle batter- options could lead to additional emissions in industry) are also ies (see Chapter 8) and the demand for new materials (e. g., innovative lacking. However, it can be expected that many adaptation options building structures or thermal insulation for buildings: see Chapter will generate additional industrial product demand and will lead 9; high‐temperature steel demand by power plants: see Chapter 7). to additional emissions in the sector. Improving flood defence, for These materials or products consume energy at the time of manufac- example, in response to sea level rise may lead to a growing demand turing, so changes outside the industry sector that lead to changes in

13 There is limited literature on the impacts of climate change on industry (e. g., avail- 12 Production of DME from biomass and utilization of fuel for transport and industrial ability of water for the food industry and in general for cooling and processing in use. Project website at: http: / / www.biodme. eu. many different industries), and these are dealt within WG 2 of AR 5, Chapter 10.

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for materials for embankment and similar infrastructure. Manufac- 10.7.1 CO2 emissions turers of textile products, machinery for agriculture or construction, and heating / cooling equipment may be affected by changing prod- Quantitative assessments of CO2 emission reduction potential for uct requirements in both number and quality due to climate change. the industrial sector explored in this section are mainly based on: (1) There is as yet no comprehensive assessment of these effects, nor studies with a global scope (e. g., IEA, UNIDO), (2) MAC studies and any estimate on market effects resulting from changes in demand (3) various information sources on available technology at industrial for products. units along with plant level and country specific data. IEA estimates 10 a global mitigation potential for the overall industry sector of 5.5 to 14 7.5 GtCO2 for the year 2050 (IEA, 2012d) . The IEA report (2012d) shows a range of 50 % reduction in four key sectors (iron and steel, 10.7 Costs and potentials cement, chemicals, and paper) and in the range of 20 % for the aluminium sector. From a regional perspective, China and India comprise 44 % of this potential. In terms of how different options contribute to

The six main categories of mitigation options discussed in Section industry mitigation potential, with regard to CO2 emissions reduction 10.4 for manufacturing industries can deliver GHG emission reduction compared with 2007 values, the IEA (2009c) shows implementation of benefits at varying levels and at varying costs over varying time peri- end use fuel efficiency can achieve 40 %, fuel and feedstock switch- ods across subsectors and countries. There is not much comparable, ing can achieve 21 %, recycling and energy recovery can achieve 9 %, comprehensive, detailed quantitative information and literature on and CCS can achieve 30 %. McKinsey (2009) provides a global mitiga- costs and potentials associated with each of the mitigation options. tion potential estimate for the overall industry sector of 6.9 GtCO2 for Available mitigation potential assessments (e. g., UNIDO, 2011; IEA, 2030. The potential is found to be the largest for iron and steel, fol-

2012d) are not always supplemented by cost estimates. Also, available lowed by chemicals and cement at 2.4, 1.9 and 1.0 GtCO2 for the year cost estimates (e. g., McKinsey&Company, 2009; Akashi et al., 2011) 2030, respectively (McKinsey&Company, 2010). The United Nations are not always comparable across studies due to differences in the Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) analyzed the poten- treatment of costs and energy price estimates across regions. There tial of energy savings based on universal application of best avail- are many mitigation potential assessments for individual industries able technologies. All the potential mitigation values are higher in (examples are included in Section 10.4) with varying time horizons; developing countries (30 to 35 %) compared with developed countries some studies report the mitigation potential of energy efficiency mea- (15 %) (UNIDO, 2011). sures with associated initial investment costs which do not account for the full life time energy cost savings benefits of investments, while Other studies addressing the industrial sector as a whole found other studies report marginal abatement costs (MACs) based on potential for future improvements in energy intensity of industrial selected technological options. Many sector- or system-specific miti- production to be in the range of up to 25 % of current global indus- gation potential studies use the concept of cost of conserved energy trial final energy consumption per unit output (Schäfer, 2005; Allwood (CCE) that accounts for annualized initial investment costs, operation et al., 2010; UNIDO, 2011; Saygin et al., 2011b; Gutowski et al., 2013) and maintenance (O&M) costs, and energy savings using either social (see Section 10.4). Additional savings can be realized in the future or private discount rates (Hasanbeigi et al., 2010b). Those mitigation through adoption of emerging technologies currently under devel- options with a CCE below the unit cost of energy are referred to as opment or that have not yet been fully commercialized (Kong et al., ‘cost-effective’. Some studies (e. g., McKinsey&Company, 2009) iden- 2012; Hasanbeigi et al., 2012b, 2013a). Examples of industries from tify ‘negative abatement costs’ by including the energy cost savings in India show that specific energy consumption is steadily declining in the abatement cost calculation. all energy intensive sectors (Roy et al., 2013), and a wide variety of measures at varying costs have been adopted by the energy intensive The sections below provide an assessment of option-specific poten- industries (Figure 10.6). However, all sectors still have energy savings tial and associated cost estimates using information available in potential when compared to world best practice (Dasgupta et al., the literature (including underlying databases used by some of such 2012). studies) and expert judgement (see Annex III, Technology-specific cost and performance parameters) and distinguish mitigation of CO2 Bottom-up country analyses provide energy savings estimates for and non-CO2 emissions. Generally, the assessment of costs is rela- specific industrial sub-sectors based on individual energy efficiency tively more uncertain but some indicative results convey information technologies and measures. Because results vary among studies, these about the wide cost range (costs per tonne of CO2 reduction) within estimates should not be considered as the upper bound of energy sav- which various options can deliver GHG reduction benefit. The inclu- ing potential but rather should give an orientation about the general sion of additional multiple benefits of mitigation measures might possibilities. change the cost-effectiveness of a technology completely, but are not included in this section. Co-benefits are discussed in Section 14 Expressed here in the form of a deployment potential (difference between the 6 °C 10.8. and 2 °C scenarios, 6DS and 2DS) rather than the technical potential.

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Textile et al., 2013c). Total technical primary energy savings potential of the Indian steel industry from 2010 – 2030 is equal to around 87 % Industries Pulp and Paper of total primary Indian steel industry energy use in 2007, of which Integrated Steel Plant 91 % of the electricity savings and 64 % of the fuel savings can be Chemical achieved cost-effectively using a discount rate of 15 % (Morrow III

Cement et al., 2013b). Akashi et al. (2011) indicate that the largest poten- 10 tial for CO emissions savings for some energy-intensive industries Aluminium 2 remains in China and India. They also indicate that with associated 0 20 40 60 80 100 Shares of Cost Categories of All Measures Adopted [%] costs under 100 USD / tCO2 in 2030, the use of efficient blast furnaces in the steel industry in China and India can reduce total emissions by 186 MtCO and 165 MtCO , respectively. This represents a combined 0-20 (USD2010/tCO2) 60-80 (USD2010/tCO2) 2 2

20-40 (USD2010/tCO2) 80-100 (USD2010/tCO2) total of 75 % of the global CO2 emissions reduction potential for this 40-60 (USD /tCO ) Above 100 (USD /tCO ) 2010 2 2010 2 technology.

Total technical electricity and fuel savings potential for China’s pulp Figure 10.6 | Range of unit cost of avoided CO2 emissions (USD2010 / tCO2) in India. Source: Database of energy efficiency measures adopted by the winners of the National and paper industry in 2010 are estimated to be 4.3 % and 38 %, respec- Awards on Energy Conservations for aluminium (26 measures), cement (42), chemicals tively. All of the electricity and 70 % of the fuel savings can be realized (62), ISP: integrated steel plant (30), pulp and paper (46), and textile (75) industry in India during the period of 2007 – 2012 (BEE, 2012). cost-effectively using a discount rate of 30 % (Kong et al., 2013). Fleiter et al. (2012a) found energy saving potentials for the German pulp and paper industry of 21 % and 16 % of fuel and electricity demand

in 2035, respectively. The savings result in 3 MtCO2 emissions reduc- In the cement sector, global weighted average thermal energy inten- tion with two-thirds of this having negative private abatement cost sity could drop to 3.2 GJ / t clinker and electric energy intensity to 90 (Fleiter et al., 2012a). Zafeiris (2010) estimates energy saving potential

kWh / t cement by 2050 (IEA / WBCSD, 2009). Emissions of 510 MtCO2 of 6.2 % of the global energy demand of the pulp and paper industry in would be saved if all current cement kilns used best available technol- year 2030. More than 90 % of the estimated savings potential can be ogy and increased use of clinker substitutes (IEA, 2009c). Oda et al. realized at negative cost using a discount rate of 30 % (Zafeiris, 2010). (2012) found large differences in regional thermal energy consump- The energy intensity of the European pulp and paper industry reduced tion for cement manufacture, with the least efficient region consum- from 16 to 13.5 GJ per tonne of paper between 1990 and 2008 (All- ing 75 % more energy than the best in 2005. Even though process- wood et al., 2012, p. 318; CEPI, 2012). However, energy intensity of the ing alternative fuels requires additional electricity consumption (Oda European pulp and paper industry has now stabilized, and few signifi- et al., 2012), their use could reduce cement sector emissions by cant future efficiency improvements are forecasted.

0.16 GtCO2eq per year by 2030 (Vattenfall, 2007) although increasing costs may in due course limit uptake (IEA / WBCSD, 2009). Implement- In non-ferrous production (aluminium / others), energy accounts for ing commercial-scale CCS in the cement industry could contribute to nearly 40 % of aluminium production costs. The IEA forecasts a max- climate change mitigation, but would increase cement production imum possible 12 % future saving in energy requirements by future costs by 40 – 90 % (IEAGHG, 2008). From the cumulative energy sav- efficiencies. In food processing, reductions between 5 % and 35 %

ings potential for China’s cement industry (2010 to 2030), 90 % is of total CO2 emissions can be made by investing in increased heat assessed as cost-effective using a discount rate of 15 % (Hasanbeigi exchanger networks or heat pumps (Fritzson and Berntsson, 2006). et al., 2012a). Electricity and fuel savings of 6 and 1.5 times the total Combined heat and power can reduce energy demand by 20 – 30 %. electricity and fuel use in the Indian cement industry in 2010, respec- Around 83 % of the energy used in wet corn milling is for dewatering, tively, can be realized for the period 2010 – 2030, almost all of which drying, and evaporation processes (Galitsky et al., 2003), while 60 % of is assessed as cost-effective using a discount rate of 15 % (Morrow III that used in fruit and vegetable processing is in boilers (Masanet et al., et al., 2013a). About 50 % of the electricity used by Thailand’s cement 2008). Thermal and mechanical vapour recompression in drying allows industry in 2005 could have been saved (16 % cost-effectively), while for estimated 15 – 20 % total energy savings, which could be increased about 20 % of the fuel use could have been reduced (80 % cost-effec- further by use of reverse osmosis (Galitsky et al., 2003). Cullen et al. tively using a discount rate of 30 %) (Hasanbeigi et al., 2010a, 2011). (2011) suggest that about 88 % savings in energy for refrigeration

Some subnational level information also shows negative CO2 abate- could be made with better insulation, and reduced ventilation in refrig- ment costs associated with emissions reductions in the cement sector erators and freezers. (e. g., CCAP, 2005). There is very little data available on mineral extractive industries in Nearly 60 % of the estimated electricity savings and all of the fuel general. Some analyses reveal that investments in state-of-the-art savings of the Chinese steel industry for the period 2010 – 2030 can equipment and further research could reduce energy consumption by be realized cost-effectively using a discount rate of 15 % (Hasanbeigi almost 50 % (SWEEP, 2011; US DoE, 2007).

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Allwood et al. (2010) assessed different strategies to achieve a 50 % Unless barriers to mitigation in industry are resolved, the pace and cut in the emissions of five sectors (cement, steel, paper, aluminium, extent of mitigation in industry will be limited, and even cost-effective and plastics) assuming doubling of demand by 2050. They found that measures will remain untapped. Various barriers that block technol- gains in efficiency could result in emissions intensity reductions in ogy adoption despite low direct costs are often not appropriately the range of 21 % – 40 %. Further reductions to reach the required accounted for in mitigation cost assessments. Such barriers are dis- 75 % reduction in emissions intensity can only be achieved by imple- cussed in Section 10.9. menting strategies at least partly going beyond the sectors bound- 10 aries: i. e., non destructive recycling, reducing demand through light In the long term, however, it may be more relevant to look at radically weighting, product life extension, increasing intensity of product use new ways of producing energy-intensive products. Low-carbon cement or substitution for other materials, and radical process innovations, and concrete might become relevant (Hasanbeigi et al., 2012b); how- notwithstanding significant implementation barriers (see Section ever, from current perspective cost assessments for these technologies 10.9). are connected with high uncertainties.

Mitigation options can also be analyzed from the perspective of some industry-wide technologies. Around two-thirds of electricity consump- 10.7.2 Non-CO2 emissions tion in the industrial sector is used to drive motors (McKane and Hasan- beigi, 2011). Steam generation represents 30 % of global final indus- Emissions of non-CO2 gases from different industrial sources are pro- trial energy use. Efficiency of motor systems and steam systems can jected to be 0.70 GtCO2eq in the year 2030 (EPA, 2013), dominated be improved by 20 – 25 % and 10 %, respectively (GEA, 2012; Brown by HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production (46 %) and N2O from nitric acid et al., 2012). Improvements in the design and especially the operation and from adipic acid (24 %). In 2030, it is projected that HFC-23 emis- of motor systems, which include motors and associated system com- sions will be related mainly to the production of HCFC-22 for feedstock ponents in compressed air, pumping, and fan systems (McKane and use, as its use as refrigerant will be phased out in 2035 (Miller and

Hasanbeigi, 2010, 2011; Saidur, 2010), have the potential to save 2.58 Kuijpers, 2011). The EPA (2013) provides MACs for all non-CO2 emis- EJ in final energy use globally (IEA, 2007). McKane and Hasanbeigi sions. Emissions resulting from the production of flat panel displays (2011) developed energy efficiency supply curve models for the United and from photovoltaic cell manufacturing are projected to be small (2

States, Canada, the European Union, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil and and 12 MtCO2eq respectively in 2030), but particularly uncertain due found that the cost-effective potential for electricity savings in motor to limited information on emissions rates, use of fluorinated gases, and system energy use compared to the base year varied between 27 % production growth rates. and 49 % for pumping, 21 % and 47 % for compressed air, and 14 % and 46 % for fan systems. The total technical saving potential varied between 43 % and 57 % for pumping, 29 % and 56 % for compressed 10.7.3 Summary results on costs and potentials air, and 27 % and 46 % for fan systems. Ways to reduce emissions from many industries include more efficient operation of process heating Based on the available bottom-up information from literature and systems (LBNL and RDC, 2007; Hasanuzzaman et al., 2012) and steam through expert consultation, a global picture of the four industrial systems (NREL et al., 2012), minimized waste heat loss and waste key sub-sectors (cement, steel, chemicals, and pulp and paper) is heat recovery (US DoE, 2004a, 2008), advanced cooling systems, use assessed and presented in Figures 10.7 to 10.10 below. Detailed jus- of cogeneration (or combined heat and power) (Oland, 2004; Shipley tification of the figures and description of the options are provided in et al., 2008; Brown et al., 2013), and use of renewable energy sources. Annex III. Globally, in 2010, these four selected sub-sectors contrib-

Recent analysis show, for example, that recuperators can reduce fur- uted 5.3 GtCO2 direct energy- and process-related CO2 emissions (see nace energy use by 25 % while economizers can reduce boiler energy Section 10.3): iron and steel 1.9 GtCO2, non-metallic minerals (which use by 10 % to 20 %, both with payback periods typically under two includes cement) 2.6 GtCO2, chemicals and petrochemicals 0.6 GtCO2, 15 years (Hasanuzzaman et al., 2012). and pulp and paper 0.2 GtCO2. This amounts to 73 % of all direct

energy- and process-related CO2 emissions from the industry sector. According to data from McKinsey (2010) on MACs for cement, iron, and steel and chemical sectors, and from Akashi et al. (2011) for For each of the sub-sectors, only selected mitigation options are cov- cement and iron and steel, around 40 % mitigation potential in indus- ered (for other feasible options in the industry sector refer to Section try can be realized cost-effectively. Due to methodological reasons, 10.4): energy efficiency, shift in raw material use to less carbon-inten- MACs always have to be discussed with caution. It has to be consid- sive alternatives (e. g., reducing the clinker to cement ratio, recycling ered that the information about the direct additional cost associated etc.), fuel mix options, end-of-pipe emission abatement options such with additional reduction of CO2 through technological options is limited. Moreover, system perspectives and system interdependencies are not typically taken into account for MACs (McKinsey&Company, 2010; 15 These values do not include indirect emissions from electricity and heat produc- Akashi et al., 2011). tion.

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Scenarios Reaching 450 ppm CO2eq in 2100 in Integrated Models

Global Average, 2030

Global Average, 2050

Currently Commercially Available Technologies

Best Practice Energy Intensity

10 Best Practice Clinker Substitution

Improvements in Non-Electric Fuel Mix

Best Practice Energy Intensity and Clinker Substitution Combined Decarbonization of Electricity Supply

Technologies in Pre-Commercial Stage

CCS

CCS and Fully Decarbonized Electricity Supply Combined

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 <0 0-20 20-50 50-150 >150 Global Average (2010)

Emission Intensity [tCO2/t Cement] Indicative Cost of Conserved Carbon[USD2010/tCO2]

Data from Integrated Models Measure Affects Direct Emissions Measure Affects Direct and Indirect Emissions

Effect from Increased Use of Biomass as Non-Electric Fuel* Measure Affects Indirect Emissions * Assuming for Simplicity that Biomass Burning is Carbon Neutral

Figure 10.7 | Indicative CO2 emission intensities and levelized cost of conserved carbon in cement production for various production practices / technologies and in 450 ppm scenarios of selected models (AIM, DNE21+, IEA ETP 2DS) (for data and methodology, see Annex III).

Scenarios Reaching 450 ppm CO2eq in 2100 in Integrated Models

Global Average (2030)

Global Average (2050)

Currently Commercially Available Technologies

Advanced Blast Furnace Route

Natural Gas DRI Route

Scrap Based EAF

Decarbonization of Electricity Supply Technologies in Pre-Commercial Stage

CCS

CCS and Fully Decarbonized Electricity Supply Combined

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 <0 0-20 20-50 50-150 >150 Global Average (2010) Indicative Cost of Conserved Carbon[USD /tCO ] Emission Intensity [tCO2/t Crude Steel] 2010 2

Data from Integrated Models Measure Affects Direct Emissions Measure Affects Indirect Emissions Measure Affects Direct and Indirect Emissions

Figure 10.8 | Indicative CO2 emission intensities and levelized cost of conserved carbon in steel production for various production practices / technologies and in 450 ppm scenarios of selected models (AIM, DNE21+, and IEA ETP 2DS) (for data and methodology, see Annex III).

768 Chapter 10 Industry

IEA ETP 2DS Scenario

Global Total (2030)

Global Total (2050)

Currently Commercially Available Technologies

Best Practice Energy Intensity

Enhanced Recycling, Cogeneration 10 and Process Intensiﬁcation

Abatement of N2O from Nitric and Adipic Acid Abatement of HFC-23 Emissions from HFC-22 Production

Improvements in Non-Electric Fuel Mix

Decarbonization of Electricity Supply

Technologies in Pre-Commercial Stage

CCS for Ammonia Production

CCS Applied to Non-Electric Fuel-Related Emissions

0.5 0.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 <0 0-20 20-50 50-150 >150

Global Average (2010) Global Average (2010)

Indirect Emissions Direct Emissions [GtCO eq] 2 Indicative Cost of Conserved Carbon[USD2010/tCO2eq] [GtCO2eq]

Data from Integrated Models Measure Affects Direct Emissions Measure Affects Direct and Indirect Emissions

Effect from Increased Use of Biomass as Non-Electric Fuel* Measure Affects Indirect Emissions * Assuming for Simplicity that Biomass Burning is Carbon Neutral

Figure 10.9 | Indicative global indirect (left) and direct (right) CO2eq emissions and levelized cost of conserved carbon resulting from chemicals production for various production practices / technologies and CO2 emissions in IEA ETP 2DS scenario (for data and methodology, see Annex III).

Notes: Graph includes energy-related emissions (including process emissions from ammonia production), N2O emissions from nitric and adipic acid production and HFC-23 emissions from HFC-22 production. Costs for N2O abatement from nitric / adipic acid production and for HFC-23 abatement in HFC-22 production based on EPA (2013) and Miller and Kuijpers (2011), respectively.

IEA ETP 2DS Scenario

Global Average (2030)

Global Average (2050)

Currently Commercially Available Technologies

Best Practice Energy Intensity

Cogeneration

Decarbonization of Electricity Supply

Technologies in Pre-Commercial Stage

CCS

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 <0 0-20 20-50 50-150 >150 Global Average (2010) Global Average (2010)

Indirect Emission Intensity [tCO2/t Paper] Direct Emission Intensity [tCO2/t Paper] Indicative Cost of Conserved Carbon[USD2010/tCO2]

Data from Integrated Models Measure Affects Direct Emissions Measure Affects Indirect Emissions Measure Affects Direct and Indirect Emissions

Figure 10.10 | Indicative global indirect (left) and direct (right) CO2 emission intensities and levelized cost of conserved carbon in paper production for various production practices / technologies and in IEA ETP 2DS scenario (for data and methodology, see Annex III).

769 Industry Chapter 10

as carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), use of decarbonized The costs of the abatement options shown in Figure 10.7 vary widely electricity and options for the two most important current sources between individual regions and from plant to plant in the cement

of non-CO2 GHG emissions (HFC 23 emissions from HFC 22 produc- industry. Factors influencing the costs include typical capital stock

tion and N2O emissions from nitric and adipic acid production) in turnover rates (some measures can only be applied when plants are the chemical industry. The potentials are given related to the 2010 replaced), relative energy costs, etc. For clinker substitution and fuel emission intensity or absolute emissions. Cost estimates relate to the mix improvements, costs depend heavily on the regional availability 10 current costs (expressed in USD2010) of the abatement options unless and price of clinker substitutes and alternative fuels. otherwise stated. For all subsectors, negative abatement cost options exist to a certain Potentials and costs to decarbonize the electricity sector are covered extent for shifting to best practice technologies and for fuel shift-

in Chapter 7. To ensure consistency with that chapter, no estimates are ing. While options in cost ranges of 0 – 20 and 20 – 50 USD2010 / tCO2eq given for the costs related to decarbonizing the electricity mix for the are somewhat limited, larger opportunities exist in the 50 – 150

industrial sector. USD2010 / tCO2eq range (particularly since CCS is included here). The feasibility of CCS depends on global CCS developments. CCS is cur- Costs and potentials are global averages, but based on region-specific rently not yet applied (with some exceptions) at commercial scale in information. The technology options are given relative to the global the cement, iron and steel, chemical, or pulp / paper industries. average emission intensity. Some options are not mutually exclusive and potentials can therefore not always be added. As such, none of the individual options can yield full GHG emission abatement, because of the multiple emission sources included (e. g., in the chemical sector 10.8 Co-benefits, risks CCS and fuel mix improvements cannot reduce N O emissions). 2 and spillovers

Costs relate to costs of abatement taking into account total incremen- tal operational and capital costs. The figures give indicatively the costs of implementing different options; they also exclude options related In addition to mitigation costs and potentials (see Section 10.7), the to material efficiency (e. g., reduction of demand), but include some deployment of mitigation measures will depend on a variety of other recycling options (although not in pulp and paper). Figure 10.7 about factors that relate to broader economic, social, and environmen-

cement production includes process CO2 emissions. tal objectives that drive decisions in the industry sector and policy choices. The implementation of mitigation measures can have posi- Emissions after implementing potential options to reduce the GHG tive or negative effects on these other objectives. To the extent that emission intensity of cement, steel, pulp and paper sectors are pre- these side-effects are positive, they can be deemed ‘co-benefits’; if 16 sented in tCO2 / t product compared to 2010 global average respec- adverse and uncertain, they imply risks. Co-benefits and adverse tively. Future relevant scenarios are also presented. However, for the side-effects of mitigation measures (10.8.1), the associated techni- chemical sector, due to its heterogeneity in terms of products and pro- cal risks and uncertainties (10.8.2) as well as their public perception cesses, the information is presented in terms of total emissions. This (10.8.3) and technological spillovers (10.8.4), can significantly affect can be an under-representation of relatively higher mitigation poten- investment decisions, individual behaviour, and policymaker priori- tial in e. g., ammonia production. In addition, unknown / unexplored ties. Table 10.5 provides an overview of the potential co-benefits and options such as hydrogen / electricity-based chemicals and fuels are adverse side-effects of the mitigation measures that are assessed not included, so it is worth noting that the options are exemplary. In in this chapter. In accordance with the three sustainable develop- the cement industry (Figure 10.7), the potential and costs for clinker ment pillars described in Chapter 4, the table presents effects on substitution and fuel mix changes are dependent on regional availabil- objectives that may be economic, social, environmental, and health ity and the price of clinker substitutes and alternative fuels. Negative related. The extent to which co-benefits and adverse side-effects will cost options in cement manufacturing are in switching to best practice materialize in practice as well as their net effect on social welfare clinker-to-cement ratio. In the iron and steel industry (Figure 10.8), a differ greatly across regions, and is strongly dependent on local cir- shift from blast furnace based steelmaking to electric arc furnace steel- cumstances and implementation practices, as well as on the scale making provides significant negative cost opportunities. However, this and pace of the deployment of the different mitigation measures potential is highly dependent on scrap availability. The chemical sec- (see Section 6.6). tor (Figure 10.9) includes options related to energy efficiency improve-

ments and options related to reduction of N2O emissions from nitric and adipic acid production and HFC-23 emissions from HFC-22 produc- 16 tion. In pulp and paper manufacturing (Figure 10.10), the estimates Co-benefits and adverse side-effects describe effects in non-monetary units without yet evaluating the net effect on overall social welfare. Please refer to the exclude increased recycling because the effect on CO2 emissions is respective sections in the framing chapters (particularly Sections 2.4, 3.6.3, and uncertain. 4.8) as well as to the glossary in Annex I for concepts and definitions.

770 Chapter 10 Industry

10.8.1 Socio-economic and environmental form of reduced fuel consumption requirements17 and imports as well effects as reduced requirements for new electricity general capacity addition (Sarkar et al., 2003; Geller et al., 2006; Winkler et al., 2007; Sathaye Social embedding of technologies depends on compatibility with exist- and Gupta, 2010) which contribute to energy security (see Sections ing systems, social acceptance, divisibility, eco-friendliness, relative 6.6.2.2 and 7.9.1). Energy security in the industrial sector is primarily advantage, etc. (Geels and Schot, 2010; Roy et al., 2013). A typical affected by concerns related to the sufficiency of resources to meet example is the tradeoff or the choice that is made between investing national energy demand at competitive and stable prices. Supply-side 10 in mitigation in industry and adaptation in the absence of right incen- vulnerabilities in this sector arise if there is a high share of imported tives for mitigation action (Chakraborty and Roy, 2012a). Slow diffu- fuels in the industrial energy mix (Cherp et al., 2012a). Cherp et al. sion of mitigation options (UNIDO, 2011) can be overcome by focusing (2012a) estimate that the overall vulnerability of industrial energy on, and explicit consideration of, non-direct cost-related characteristics consumption is lower than in the transport and residential and com- of the technologies (Fleiter et al., 2012c). It is unanimously understood mercial (R&C) sectors in most countries. Nevertheless, since mitigation that maintaining competitiveness of industrial products in the market policies in industry would likely lead to higher energy efficiency, they place is an important objective of industries, so implementation of may reduce exposure to energy supply and price shocks (Gnansou- mitigation measures will be a major favoured strategy for industries if nou, 2008; Kruyt et al., 2009; Sovacool and Brown, 2010; Cherp et al., they contribute to cost reduction (Bernstein et al., 2007; Winkler et al., 2012b). 2007; Bassi et al., 2009). Increasing demand for energy in many countries has led to imports and increasing investment in high-cost reliable Reduced fossil fuel burning brings associated reduced costs (Winkler electric power generation capacity; so mitigation via implementation et al., 2007), and reduced local impacts on ecosystems related to fossil of energy efficiency measures help to reduce import dependency and fuel extraction and waste disposal liability (Liu and Diamond, 2005; investment pressure (Winkler et al., 2007). Labour unions are increas- Zhang and Wang, 2008; Chen et al., 2012; Ren et al., 2012; Hasan- ingly expressing their desire for policies to address climate change and beigi et al., 2013b; Lee and van de Meene, 2013; Xi et al., 2013; Liu support for a transition to ‘green’ jobs (Räthzel and Uzzell, 2012). Local et al., 2013) (see also Sections 7.9.2 and 7.9.3). In addition, other pos- air and water pollution in areas near industries have led to regulatory sible benefits of reduced reliance on fossil fuels include increases in restrictions in almost all countries. In many countries, new industrial employment and national income (Sathaye and Gupta, 2010) with new developments face increasing public resistance and litigation. If miti- business opportunities (Winkler et al., 2007; Nidumolu et al., 2009; Wei gation options deliver local air pollution benefits, they will have indi- et al., 2010; Horbach and Rennings, 2013). rect value and greater acceptance. There is wide consensus in the literature on local air pollution reduc- The literature (cited in the following sections and in Table 10.5) docu- tion benefits from energy efficiency measures in industries (Winkler ments that mitigation measures interact with multiple economic, social, et al., 2007; Bassi et al., 2009; Ren et al., 2012), such as positive health and environmental objectives, although these associated impacts effects, increased safety and working conditions, and improved job sat- are not always quantified. In general, quantifying the corresponding isfaction (Getzner, 2002; Worrell et al., 2003; Wei et al., 2010; Walz, welfare effects that a mitigation technology or practice entails is chal- 2011; Zhang et al., 2011; Horbach and Rennings, 2013) (see also Sec- lenging, because they are very localized and different stakeholders tions 7.9.2, 7.9.3 and WGII 11.9). Energy efficient technologies can may have different perspectives of the corresponding losses and gains also have positive impacts on employment (Getzner, 2002; Wei et al., (Fleiter et al., 2012c) (see Sections 2.4, 3.6.3, 4.2, and 6.6). It is impor- 2010; UNIDO, 2011; OECD / IEA, 2012). Despite these multiple co-ben- tant to note that co-benefits need to be assessed together with direct efits, sometimes the relatively large initial investment required and benefits to overcome barriers in implementation of the mitigation the relatively long payback period of some energy efficiency measures options (e. g., training requirements, losses during technology instal- can be a disincentive and an affordability issue, especially for SMEs, lation) (Worrell et al., 2003), which may appear otherwise larger for since the co-benefits are often not monetized (Brown, 2001; Thollander SMEs or isolated enterprises (Crichton, 2006; Zhang and Wang, 2008; et al., 2007; Ghosh and Roy, 2011; UNIDO, 2011). Ghosh and Roy, 2011). Emission efficiency (G / E): The literature documents well that Energy efficiency (E / M): Energy efficiency includes a wide variety increases in emissions efficiency can lead to multiple benefits (see of measures that also achieve economic efficiency and natural / energy Table 10.5). Local air pollution reduction is well documented as co- resource saving, which contribute to the achievement of environ- benefit of emissions efficiency measures (Winkler et al., 2007; Bassi mental goals and other macro benefits (Roy et al., 2013). At the com- et al., 2009; Ren et al., 2012). Associated health benefits (Aunan et al., pany level, the impact of energy efficient technology is often found 2004; Haines et al., 2009) and reduced ecosystem impacts (please refer to enhance productivity growth (Zuev et al., 1998; Boyd and Pang, to Section 7.9.2 for details) are society-wide benefits, while reduc- 2000; Murphy, 2001; Worrell et al., 2003; Gallagher, 2006; Winkler et al., 2007; Zhang and Wang, 2008; May et al., 2013). Other ben- 17 Please see Section 10.4 and references cited therein (e. g., Schäfer, 2005; Allwood efits to companies, industry, and the economy as a whole come in the et al., 2010; UNIDO, 2011; Saygin et al., 2011b; Gutowski et al., 2013).

771 Industry Chapter 10

tions in emission-related taxes or payment liabilities (Metcalf, 2009) Zwick, 2002; Widmer et al., 2005; Clift, 2006; Zhang and Wang, 2008; are specific to industries, even though compliance costs might increase Walz, 2011; Allwood et al., 2011; Raghupathy and Chaturvedi, 2013; (Dasgupta et al., 2000; Mestl et al., 2005; Rivers, 2010). The net effect Menikpura et al., 2013). of these benefits and costs has not been studied comprehensively. Quantification of benefits is often done on a case-by-case basis. For Demand reductions (P / S and S): Demand reduction through adop- example, Mestl et al. (2005) found that the environmental and health tion of new diverse lifestyles (see Section 10.4) (Roy and Pal, 2009; 10 benefits of using electric arc furnaces for steel production in the city GEA, 2012; Kainuma et al., 2012; Allwood et al., 2013) and implemen- of Tiyuan (China) could potentially lead to higher benefits than other tation of healthy eating (see Section 11.4.3) and sufficiency goals can options, despite being the most costly option. For India, a detailed result in multiple co-benefits related to health that enhance human study (Chakraborty and Roy, 2012b) of 13 energy-intensive industrial well-being (GEA, 2012). Well-being indicators can be developed to units showed that several measures to reduce GHG emissions were evaluate industrial economic activities in terms of multiple effects of adopted because the industries could realize positive effects on their sustainable consumption on a range of policy objectives (GEA, 2012). own economic competitiveness, resource conservation such as water, and an enhanced reputation / public image for their commitment to corporate social responsibility towards a global cause. 10.8.2 Technological risks and uncertainties

If existing barriers (see Section 10.9) can be overcome, industrial appli- There are some specific risks and uncertainties with adoption of miti- cations of CCS deployed in the future could provide environmental co- gation options in industry. Potential health, safety, and environmental benefits because CCS-enabled facilities have very low emissions rates risks could arise from additional mining activities as some mitigation Table 10.5 | Overview of potential co-benefits green( arrows) and adverse side-effects (orange arrows) of the main mitigation measures in the industry sector. Arrows pointing for critical pollutants even without specific policies being in place for technologies could substantially increase the need for specific materi- up / down denote positive / negative effect on the respective objective or concern. Co-benefits and adverse side-effects depend on local circumstances as well as on the implementa- those emissions (Kuramochi et al., 2012b) (see Section 7.9.2 and Figure als (e. g., rare earths, see Section 7.9.2) and the exploitation of new tion practice, pace, and scale (see Section 6.6). For possible upstream effects of low-carbon energy supply (incl. CCS), see Section 7.9. For possible upstream effects of biomass 7.8 for the air pollution effects of CCS deployment in power plants). extraction locations or methods. Industrial production is closely linked supply, see Sections 11.7 and 11.13.6. For an assessment of macroeconomic, cross-sectoral effects associated with mitigation policies (e. g., on energy prices, consumption, growth, to extractive industry (see Figure 10.2) and there are risks associated and trade), see Sections 3.9, 6.3.6, 13.2.2.3, and 14.4.2. Numbers correspond to references below the table. Effect on additional objectives / concerns Mitigations options to reduce PFC emissions from aluminium pro- with closing mines if post-closure measures for environmental pro- Mitigation measures Economic Social (including health) Environmental duction, N2O emissions from adipic and nitric acid production (EPA, tection are not adopted due to a lack of appropriate technology or 2010a), and PFC emissions from semiconductor manufacturing (ISMI, resources. Carbon dioxide capture and storage for industry is an exam- ↑ Energy security (via reduced energy ↓ Health impact via reduced local pollution [16] Ecosystem impact via intensity) [1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 29, 57]; ↓ Fossil fuel extraction [21] 2005) have proven to enhance productivity and reduce the cost of pro- ple of a technological option subject to several risks and uncertainties ↑ New business opportunities [4, 17 – 20] ↓ Local pollution [11, 22 – 24, 25] and Technical energy ↑ Employment impact [14, 15, 19, 28] duction. Simultaneously, these measures provide health benefits and (see Sections 10.7, 7.5.5, 7.6.4 and 7.9.4 for more in-depth discussion Waste [11, 27] efficiency improvements ↑ Water availability and quality [26] ↓ better working conditions for labour and local ambient air quality (Hei- on CO2 storage, transport, and the public perception thereof, respec- via new processes ↑ Competitiveness and Productivity ↑ Safety, working conditions and 18 [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12] jnes et al., 1999). tively). and technologies job satisfaction [5, 19, 20] ↑ Technological spillovers in DCs (due to Material efficiency (M / P): There is a wide range of benefits to be Specific literature on accidents and technology failure related to miti- supply chain linkages) [59, 60, 61] harnessed from implementing material efficiency options. Private ben- gation measures in the industry sector is lacking. In general, industrial ↑ Competitiveness [31, 55] and ↓ Health impact via reduced local air pollution Ecosystem impact via CO2 and non-CO2 productivity [52, 53] [30, 31, 32, 33, 53] and better work ↓ Local air pollution [4, 25, 30, 31, 34, 52] efits to industry in terms of cost reduction (Meyer et al., 2007) can activities are subject to the main categories of risks and emergencies, GHG emissions conditions (for PFCs from aluminium) [58] ↓ Water pollution [54] enhance competitiveness, but national and subnational sales revenue namely natural disasters, malicious activities, and unexpected conse- intensity reduction ↑ Water conservation [56] might decline in the medium term due to reduction in demand for inter- quences arising from overly complex systems (Mitroff and Alpaslan, ↓ National sales tax revenue ↑ New business opportunities [11, 39 – 43] ↓ Ecosystem impact via reduced local mediate products used in manufacturing (Thomas, 2003). Material use 2003; Olson and Wu, 2010). For example, process safety is still a major in medium term [35] air and water pollution and waste ↓ Local conflicts (reduced efficiency increases can often be realized via cooperation in industrial issue for the chemical industry. Future improvements in process safety material disposal [42, 46] ↑ Employment impact in waste resource extraction) [58] clusters (see Section 10.5), while associated infrastructure develop- will likely involve a holistic integration of complementary activities and Material efficiency recycling market [44, 45] ↓ Use of raw / virgin materials and ↓ Health impacts and safety concerns [49] ment (new industrial parks) and associated cooperation schemes lead be supported by several layers of detail (Pitblado, 2011). of goods, recycling natural resources implying reduced ↑ New infrastructure for industrial unsustainable resource mining [47, 48] to additional societal gains (e. g., more efficient use of land through clusters [36, 37] bundling activities) (Lowe, 1997; Chertow, 2000). With the reduction ↑ Competitiveness in manufacturing [38] in need for virgin materials (Allwood et al., 2013; Stahel, 2013) and 10.8.3 Public perception ↓ National sales tax revenue ↑ Wellbeing via new diverse ↓ Post consumption waste [48] Product demand the prioritization of prevention in line with the waste management in medium term [35] lifestyle choices [48, 50, 51] hierarchy (see Section 10.14.2, Figure 10.16), mining-related social From a socio-constructivist perspective, the social response to reductions conflicts can decrease (Germond-Duret, 2012), health and safety can industrial activity depends on three sets of factors related to: 1) be enhanced, recycling-related employment can increase, the amount the dynamics of regional development and the historical place of [1] Sovacool and Brown, 2010; [2] Geller et al., 2006; [3] Gnansounou, 2008; [4] Winkler et al., 2007; [5] Worrell et al., 2003; [6] Boyd and Pang, 2000; [7] May et al., 2013; [8] of waste material (see Section 10.14.2.1 and Figure 10.17) going industry in the community, 2) the relationship between residents Goldemberg, 1998; [9] Murphy, 2001; [10] Gallagher, 2006; [11] Zhang and Wang, 2008; [12] Roy et al., 2013; [13] see Section 10.4 and references cited therein; [14] UNIDO, 2011; [15] OECD / IEA, 2012; [16] Zhang et al., 2011; [17] Nidumolu et al., 2009; [18] Horbach and Rennings, 2013; [19] Getzner, 2002; [20] Wei et al., 2010; [21] Liu and Diamond, into landfills can decrease, and new business opportunities related to and the industry and local governance capacities, and 3) the social 2005; [22] Hasanbeigi et al., 2013a; [23] Xi et al., 2013; [24] Chen et al., 2012; [25] Ren et al., 2012; [26] Zhelev, 2005; [27] Lee and van de Meene, 2013; [28] Sathaye and material efficiency can emerge (Clift and Wright, 2000; Rennings and or socio-economic impacts experienced (Fortin and Gagnon, 2006). Gupta, 2010; [29] Sathaye and Gupta, 2010; [30] Mestl et al., 2005; [31] Chakraborty and Roy, 2012a; [32] Haines et al., 2009; [33] Aunan et al., 2004; [34] Bassi et al., 2009; [35] Public hearings and stakeholder participation — especially on envi- Thomas, 2003; [36] Lowe, 1997; [37] Chertow, 2000; [38] Meyer et al., 2007; [39] Widmer et al., 2005; [40] Raghupathy and Chaturvedi, 2013; [41] Clift and Wright, 2000; [42] Allwood et al., 2011; [43] Clift, 2006; [44] Walz, 2011; [45] Rennings and Zwick, 2002; [46] Menikpura et al., 2013; [47] Stahel, 2013; [48] Allwood et al., 2013; [49] GEA, 2012; 18 See also EPA Voluntary Aluminum Industrial Partnership: http: / / www.epa. ronmental and social impact assessments — prior to issuance of per- [50] Kainuma et al., 2012; [51] Roy and Pal, 2009; [52] EPA, 2010b; [53] ISMI, 2005; [54] Heijnes et al., 1999; [55] Rivers, 2010; [56] Chakraborty and Roy, 2012b; [57] Sarkar gov / highgwp / aluminum-pfc / faq.html. mission to operate has become mandatory in almost all countries, et al., 2003; [58] Germond-Duret, 2012; [59] Kugler, 2006; [60] Bitzer and Kerekes, 2008; [61] Zhao et al., 2010.

772 Chapter 10 Industry

Zwick, 2002; Widmer et al., 2005; Clift, 2006; Zhang and Wang, 2008; and industry expenditures for social corporate responsibility are now from CCS in power generation units is not available, since CCS is not Walz, 2011; Allwood et al., 2011; Raghupathy and Chaturvedi, 2013; often disclosed. Mitigation measures in the industry sector might be yet in place in the industry sector (Section 10.7). Menikpura et al., 2013). considered socially acceptable if associated with co-benefits, such as reducing GHG emissions while also improving local environmen- Mining activities have generated social conflicts in different parts of Demand reductions (P / S and S): Demand reduction through adop- tal quality as a whole (e. g., energy efficiency measures that reduce the world (Martinez-Alier, 2001; World Bank, 2007; Germond-Duret, tion of new diverse lifestyles (see Section 10.4) (Roy and Pal, 2009; local emissions). Public perception related to mitigation actions can 2012; Guha, 2013). The Observatory of Mining Conflicts in Latin GEA, 2012; Kainuma et al., 2012; Allwood et al., 2013) and implemen- be influenced by national political positions in international negotia- America (OMCLA) reported more than 150 active mining conflicts in 10 tation of healthy eating (see Section 11.4.3) and sufficiency goals can tions and media. the region, most of which started in the 2000s19. Besides this general result in multiple co-benefits related to health that enhance human experience, the potential for interactions between social tensions and well-being (GEA, 2012). Well-being indicators can be developed to Research on public perception and acceptance with regard to indus- mitigation initiatives in this sector are unknown. evaluate industrial economic activities in terms of multiple effects of trial applications of CCS is lacking (for the general discussion of CCS sustainable consumption on a range of policy objectives (GEA, 2012). see Chapter 7). To date, broad evidence related to whether public perception of CCS for industrial applications will be significantly different 19 Observatorio de Conflictos Mineros de América Latina. Available at: http: / / www. conflictosmineros.net. 10.8.2 Technological risks and uncertainties

There are some specific risks and uncertainties with adoption of mitigation options in industry. Potential health, safety, and environmental risks could arise from additional mining activities as some mitigation Table 10.5 | Overview of potential co-benefits (green arrows) and adverse side-effects (orange arrows) of the main mitigation measures in the industry sector. Arrows pointing technologies could substantially increase the need for specific materi- up / down denote positive / negative effect on the respective objective or concern. Co-benefits and adverse side-effects depend on local circumstances as well as on the implementa- als (e. g., rare earths, see Section 7.9.2) and the exploitation of new tion practice, pace, and scale (see Section 6.6). For possible upstream effects of low-carbon energy supply (incl. CCS), see Section 7.9. For possible upstream effects of biomass extraction locations or methods. Industrial production is closely linked supply, see Sections 11.7 and 11.13.6. For an assessment of macroeconomic, cross-sectoral effects associated with mitigation policies (e. g., on energy prices, consumption, growth, to extractive industry (see Figure 10.2) and there are risks associated and trade), see Sections 3.9, 6.3.6, 13.2.2.3, and 14.4.2. Numbers correspond to references below the table. Effect on additional objectives / concerns with closing mines if post-closure measures for environmental pro- Mitigation measures tection are not adopted due to a lack of appropriate technology or Economic Social (including health) Environmental resources. Carbon dioxide capture and storage for industry is an exam- ↑ Energy security (via reduced energy ↓ Health impact via reduced local pollution [16] Ecosystem impact via intensity) [1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 29, 57]; ↓ Fossil fuel extraction [21] ple of a technological option subject to several risks and uncertainties ↑ New business opportunities [4, 17 – 20] ↓ Local pollution [11, 22 – 24, 25] and Technical energy ↑ Employment impact [14, 15, 19, 28] (see Sections 10.7, 7.5.5, 7.6.4 and 7.9.4 for more in-depth discussion Waste [11, 27] efficiency improvements ↑ Water availability and quality [26] ↓ on CO2 storage, transport, and the public perception thereof, respec- via new processes ↑ Competitiveness and Productivity ↑ Safety, working conditions and [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12] tively). and technologies job satisfaction [5, 19, 20] ↑ Technological spillovers in DCs (due to Specific literature on accidents and technology failure related to miti- supply chain linkages) [59, 60, 61] gation measures in the industry sector is lacking. In general, industrial ↑ Competitiveness [31, 55] and ↓ Health impact via reduced local air pollution Ecosystem impact via CO2 and non-CO2 productivity [52, 53] [30, 31, 32, 33, 53] and better work ↓ Local air pollution [4, 25, 30, 31, 34, 52] activities are subject to the main categories of risks and emergencies, GHG emissions conditions (for PFCs from aluminium) [58] ↓ Water pollution [54] namely natural disasters, malicious activities, and unexpected conse- intensity reduction ↑ Water conservation [56] quences arising from overly complex systems (Mitroff and Alpaslan, ↓ National sales tax revenue ↑ New business opportunities [11, 39 – 43] ↓ Ecosystem impact via reduced local 2003; Olson and Wu, 2010). For example, process safety is still a major in medium term [35] air and water pollution and waste ↓ Local conflicts (reduced issue for the chemical industry. Future improvements in process safety material disposal [42, 46] ↑ Employment impact in waste resource extraction) [58] will likely involve a holistic integration of complementary activities and Material efficiency recycling market [44, 45] ↓ Use of raw / virgin materials and ↓ Health impacts and safety concerns [49] be supported by several layers of detail (Pitblado, 2011). of goods, recycling natural resources implying reduced ↑ New infrastructure for industrial unsustainable resource mining [47, 48] clusters [36, 37] 10.8.3 Public perception ↑ Competitiveness in manufacturing [38] ↓ National sales tax revenue ↑ Wellbeing via new diverse ↓ Post consumption waste [48] Product demand in medium term [35] lifestyle choices [48, 50, 51] From a socio-constructivist perspective, the social response to reductions industrial activity depends on three sets of factors related to: 1) the dynamics of regional development and the historical place of [1] Sovacool and Brown, 2010; [2] Geller et al., 2006; [3] Gnansounou, 2008; [4] Winkler et al., 2007; [5] Worrell et al., 2003; [6] Boyd and Pang, 2000; [7] May et al., 2013; [8] industry in the community, 2) the relationship between residents Goldemberg, 1998; [9] Murphy, 2001; [10] Gallagher, 2006; [11] Zhang and Wang, 2008; [12] Roy et al., 2013; [13] see Section 10.4 and references cited therein; [14] UNIDO, 2011; [15] OECD / IEA, 2012; [16] Zhang et al., 2011; [17] Nidumolu et al., 2009; [18] Horbach and Rennings, 2013; [19] Getzner, 2002; [20] Wei et al., 2010; [21] Liu and Diamond, and the industry and local governance capacities, and 3) the social 2005; [22] Hasanbeigi et al., 2013a; [23] Xi et al., 2013; [24] Chen et al., 2012; [25] Ren et al., 2012; [26] Zhelev, 2005; [27] Lee and van de Meene, 2013; [28] Sathaye and or socio-economic impacts experienced (Fortin and Gagnon, 2006). Gupta, 2010; [29] Sathaye and Gupta, 2010; [30] Mestl et al., 2005; [31] Chakraborty and Roy, 2012a; [32] Haines et al., 2009; [33] Aunan et al., 2004; [34] Bassi et al., 2009; [35] Public hearings and stakeholder participation — especially on envi- Thomas, 2003; [36] Lowe, 1997; [37] Chertow, 2000; [38] Meyer et al., 2007; [39] Widmer et al., 2005; [40] Raghupathy and Chaturvedi, 2013; [41] Clift and Wright, 2000; [42] Allwood et al., 2011; [43] Clift, 2006; [44] Walz, 2011; [45] Rennings and Zwick, 2002; [46] Menikpura et al., 2013; [47] Stahel, 2013; [48] Allwood et al., 2013; [49] GEA, 2012; ronmental and social impact assessments — prior to issuance of per- [50] Kainuma et al., 2012; [51] Roy and Pal, 2009; [52] EPA, 2010b; [53] ISMI, 2005; [54] Heijnes et al., 1999; [55] Rivers, 2010; [56] Chakraborty and Roy, 2012b; [57] Sarkar mission to operate has become mandatory in almost all countries, et al., 2003; [58] Germond-Duret, 2012; [59] Kugler, 2006; [60] Bitzer and Kerekes, 2008; [61] Zhao et al., 2010.

773 Industry Chapter 10

10.8.4 Technological spillovers ability, short investment payback thresholds (two to eight years; IEA, 2012e), industrial organizational and behavioural barriers to imple- Spillovers are difficult to measure, but existing studies (Bouoiyour and menting change; limited access to capital; impact of non-energy poli- Akhawayn, 2005) show that a technology gap is one of the conditions cies on energy efficiency; public acceptance of unconventional manu- for positive spillovers. Sections 10.4 and 10.7 have already shown that facturing processes; and a wide range of market failures (Bailey et al., there is gap between the world best practices in energy efficiency and 2009; IEA, 2009d). While large energy-intensive industries — such as 10 industrial practices in many countries. As such, cross-country invest- iron and steel, and mineral processing — are often aware of potential ment in mitigation technologies can enhance positive spillovers in host cost savings and consider energy efficiency in investment decisions, countries. In the industrial technology context, multinational compa- this is less common in the commercial and service sectors where the nies try to minimize imitation probability and technology leakage, but energy cost share is usually low, or for smaller companies where over- studies show that spillover works faster through supply chain link- head costs for energy management and training personnel can be age inter-industry (Kugler, 2006; Bitzer and Kerekes, 2008; Zhao et al., prohibitive (UNIDO, 2011; Ghosh and Roy, 2011; Schleich and Gruber, 2010). In general, studies suggest that technology spillovers in the 2008; Fleiter et al., 2012d; Hasanbeigi et al., 2009). Of course, invest- mitigation context depend on additional technology policies besides ment decisions also consider investment risks, which are generally not direct investment (Gillingham et al., 2009; Le and Pomfret, 2011; Wang reflected in the cost estimates assessed in Section 10.7. The impor- et al., 2012a; Costantini et al., 2013; Jeon et al., 2013). These results are tance of barriers depends on specific circumstances. For example, by relevant for investments on industrial mitigation technologies as well. surveying the Swedish foundry industry, Rohdin et al. (2007) found that access to capital was reported to be the largest barrier, followed by technical risk and other barriers.

10.9 Barriers and opportunities Cogeneration, or combined heat and power (CHP), is an energy efficiency option that can not only reduce GHG emissions by improving system energy efficiency, but can also reduce system cost and decrease Besides uncertainties in financial costs of mitigation options assessed dependence on grid power. For industry, however, (IEA, 2009d) CHP in 10.7, a number of non-financial barriers and opportunities assessed faces a complex set of economic, regulatory, social, and political bar- in this section hinder or facilitate implementation of measures to riers that restrain its wider use including: market restriction securing reduce GHG emissions in industry. Barriers must be overcome to allow a fair market value for electricity exported to the grid; high upfront implementation (see Flannery and Kheshgi, 2005), however, in general costs compared to large power plants; difficulty concentrating suitable they are not sufficiently captured in integrated model studies and sce- heat loads and lack of integrated planning; grid access; non-transpar- narios (see Section 10.10). Barriers that are often common across sec- ent and technically demanding interconnection procedures; lack of tors are given in Chapter 3. Table 10.6 summarizes barriers and oppor- consumer and policymaker knowledge about CHP energy, cost and tunities for the major mitigation options listed in Section 10.4. emission savings; and industry perceptions that CHP is an investment outside their core business. Regulatory barriers can stem from taxes, Typically, barriers and opportunities can be distinguished into the fol- tariffs, or permits. For a cogeneration project of an existing facility, the lowing categories: electricity price paid to a cogeneration facility is the most important variable in determining the project’s success — more so than capital • Technology: includes maturity, reliability, safety, performance, cost costs, operating and maintenance cost, and even fuel costs (Meidel, of technology options and systems, and gaps in information 2005). Prices are affected by rules for electricity markets, which differ • Physical: includes availability of infrastructure, geography, and from region to region, and which can form either incentives or barriers space available for cogeneration (Meidel, 2005). • Institutional and legal: includes regulatory frameworks and institutions that may enable investment • Cultural: includes public acceptance, workforce capacity (e. g., edu- 10.9.2 Emissions efficiency, fuel switching, and cation, training, and knowledge), and cultural norms. carbon dioxide capture and storage

There are a number of challenges associated with feedstock and 10.9.1 Energy efficiency for reducing energy energy substitution in industry. Waste materials and biomass as fuel requirements and feedstock substitutes are limited by their availability, and hence competition could drive up prices and make industrial applications less Even though energy consumption can be a significant cost for indus- attractive (IEA, 2009b). A decarbonized power sector would offer new

try, a number of barriers limit industrial sector steps to minimize opportunities to reduce CO2 intensity of some industrial processes via energy use via energy efficiency measures. These barriers include: use of electricity, however, decarbonization of power also has barriers failure to recognize the positive impact of energy efficiency on profit- (assessed in Section 7.10).

774 Chapter 10 Industry

Table 10.6 | Barriers (–) and opportunities (+) for GHG emission reduction options in industry. References and discussion appear in respective sub-sections of 10.9.

Energy efficiency for reducing Emissions efficiency, fuel Product demand Material efficiency Non-CO GHGs energy requirements switching and CCS reduction 2 + many options available + fuels and technologies readily available + options available – slower technology + /– approaches and turnover can technologies available – technical risk – retrofit challenges slow technology for some sources 10 Technological + cogeneration mature in heavy industry + large potential scope for CCS in cement improvement – lack of lower cost Aspects: production, iron and steel, and petrochemicals and operational technology for PFC Technology – non-transparent and technically demanding emission reduction interconnection procedures for cogeneration – limited CCS technology development, emission reduction in demonstration and maturity existing aluminium for industry applications production plants + less energy and fuel use, lower – lack of sufficient feedstock to meet demand + reduction in raw + reduction in – lack of control cooling needs, smaller size and waste materials raw materials and of HFC leakage in – CCS retrofit constraints Technological disposed products refrigeration systems Aspects: – concentrating suitable heat – transport – lack of CO2 pipeline infrastructure Physical loads for cogeneration infrastructure and – limited scope and lifetime for industry proximity for – retrofit constraints on cogeneration material / waste reuse industrial CO2 utilization – impact of non-energy policies – fragmented and – regulatory and legal – lack of certification of weak institutions instruments generally refrigeration systems + energy efficiency policies (10.11) do not take account – regulatory barriers Institutional – market barriers of externalities to HFC alternatives and Legal – regulatory, tax / tariff and in aerosols permitting of cogeneration

+ /– grid access for cogeneration – lack of trained personnel – social acceptance of CCS + / – public + /– user preferences – lack of participation drive demand information / education + / – attention to energy efficiency about solvent – human capacity – lack of acceptance of unconventional replacements for management Cultural manufacturing processes decisions – lack of awareness of – cogeneration outside core business alternative refrigerants

– lack of consumer and policymaker knowledge of cogeneration – access to capital and short – lack of sufficient financial incentive – upfront cost and – businesses, – recycled HFCs not investment payback requirements for widespread CCS deployment potentially longer governments, cost competitive payback period and labour favour with new HFCs – high overhead costs for small or – liability risk for CCS increased production less energy intensive industries + reduced – cost of HFC – high CCS capital cost and long production costs incineration Financial + /– factoring in efficiency into investment project development times decisions (e. g., energy management)

+ cogeneration economic in many cases

+ /– market value of grid power for cogeneration

– high capital cost for cogeneration

The application of CCS to the industries covered in this chapter share 10.9.3 Material efficiency many of the barriers to its application to power generation (see Sec- tion 7.10). Barriers for application of CCS in industry include space There are technically feasible opportunities to improve material effi- constraints when applied in retrofit situations (Concawe, 2011); high ciency in industry (Allwood et al., 2011). One opportunity is a circu- capital costs and long project development times; investment risk lar economy, which is a growing model across various countries and associated with poorly defined liability; the trade-exposed nature of which aims to systematically fulfil the hierarchy principles of material many industries, which can limit viable CCS business models; current efficiency “reduce, re-use, recycle” (see Section 10.14). This approach lack in general of financial incentives to offset the additional cost of however, has barriers which include a lack of human and institutional

CCS; and the immaturity of CO2 capture technology for cement, iron capacities to encourage management decisions and public participa- and steel, and petrochemical industries (Kheshgi et al., 2012). tion (Geng and Doberstein, 2008), as well as fragmented and weak

775 Industry Chapter 10

institutions (Geng et al., 2010b). Improving material efficiency by inte- emitted in HCFC production (Heijnes et al., 1999); regulatory barriers grating different industries (see Section 10.5) is often limited by spe- to alternatives to some HFC use in aerosols (IPCC / TEAP, 2005). UNEP cific local conditions, infrastructure requirements (e. g., pipelines) and (2010) found that there are technically and economically feasible the complexity of multiple users (Geng et al., 2010b). substitutes for HCFCs, however, transitional costs remain a barrier for smaller enterprises.

10 10.9.4 Product demand reduction

Improved product design or material properties, respectively, can 10.10 Sectoral implications help to extend the product’s lifetime and can lead to lower product of transformation demand. However it has to be considered that extended lifetime may not actually satisfy current user preferences, and the user may choose pathways and sustain- to replace an older, functioning product with a new one (van Nes and able development Cramer, 2006; Allwood et al., 2011). In addition, continually providing newer products may result in lower operational emissions (e. g., improved energy efficiency). In this case, longer product lifetimes This section assesses transformation pathways for the industry sector might not automatically lead to lower overall emissions. For example, over the 21st century by examining a wide range of published scenar- from a lifecycle balance point of view, it may be better to replace ios. This section builds upon scenarios which were collated by Chapter specific energy-intensive products such as washing machines, before 6 in the WG III AR5 Scenario Database (see Annex II.10), which span their end-of-life to make use of more efficient substitutes (Scholl et al., a wide range of possible energy future pathways and which rely on a 2010; Intlekofer et al., 2010; Fischer et al., 2012; Agrawal et al., 2012). wide range of assumptions (e. g., population, economic growth, policies, and technology development and its acceptance). Against that Businesses are rewarded for growing sales volumes and can prefer background, scenarios for the industrial sector over the 21st century

process innovation over product innovation (e. g., EIO 2011; 2012). associated with different atmospheric CO2eq concentrations in 2100 Existing markets generally do not take into account negative exter- are assessed in Section 10.10.1, and corresponding implications for nalities associated with resource use nor do they adequately incor- sustainable development and investment are assessed in Section porate the risks of resource-related conflicts (Bleischwitz et al., 2012; 10.10.2 from a sector perspective. Transatlantic Academy, 2012), yet existing national accounting systems based on GDP indicators also support the pursuit of actions and policies that aim to increase demand spending for more prod- 10.10.1 Industry transformation pathways ucts (Jackson, 2009; Roy and Pal, 2009). Labour unions often have an ambivalent position in terms of environmental policies and partly The different possible trajectories for industry final energy demand see environmental goals as a threat for their livelihood (Räthzel and (globally and for different regions), emissions, and carbon intensity

Uzzell, 2012). under a wide range of CO2eq concentrations over the 21st century are shown in Figure 10.11, Figure 10.12 and Figure 10.1320. These scenarios exhibit economic growth in general over the 21st century as well

10.9.5 Non-CO2 greenhouse gases as growth specifically in the industry sector. Detailed scenarios of the industry sector extend to 2050 and exhibit increasing material produc-

Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions are an important contributor to tion, e. g., iron / steel and cement (Sano et al., 2013; IEA, 2009b; Akashi

industry process emissions (note that emissions of CO2 from calcina- et al., 2013). Scenarios generated by general equilibrium models, tion are another important contributor: for barriers to controlling these which include economic feedbacks (see Table 6.1), implicitly include

emissions by CO2 capture and storage see Section 10.9.2). Barriers to changes in material flow due to, for example, changes in prices that

preventing or avoiding the release of HFCs, CFCs, HCFCs, PFC, and SF6 may be driven by a price on carbon; however, these models do not gen- in industry and from its products include: lack of awareness of alterna- erally provide detailed subsectoral material flows. Options for reduc- tive refrigerants and lack of guidance as to their use in a given or new ing material demand and inter-input substitution elasticities (Roy et al., system (UNEP and EC, 2010); lack of certification and control of leakage of HFCs from refrigeration (Heijnes et al., 1999); cost of recycled 20 HFCs in markets where there is direct competition from newly pro- This section builds upon emissions scenarios which were collated by Chapter 6 in the WGIII AR5 scenario database (see Section 6.2.2), and compares them to duced HFCs (Heijnes et al., 1999); lack of information and communica- detailed scenarios for industry referenced in this section. The scenarios included both tion and education about solvent replacements (Heijnes et al., 1999; baseline and mitigation scenarios. As described in more detail in Section 6.3.2, the IPCC / TEAP, 2005); cost of adaptation of existing aluminium production scenarios shown in this section are categorized into bins based on 2100 concentrations: between 430 – 530 ppm CO2eq, 530 – 650 ppm CO2eq, and > 650 ppm CO2eq for PFC emission reduction and the absence of lower cost technologies by 2100. The relation between these bins of emission scenarios and the increase in in such situations (Heijnes et al., 1999); cost of incineration of HFCs global mean temperature since pre-industrial times is reviewed in Section 6.3.2.

776 Chapter 10 Industry

a) b) 4.5 3

4 2.5

3.5 2

3 1.5

2.5 1 10

2 0.5

1.5 0 Relative Change in Final Energy [2010=1] Relative Change in Final Energy 1 -0.5

0.5 -1

0 -1.5 2020 2030 2050 2070 2100 2020 2030 2050 2070 2100 Relative Change in Direct plus Indirect Emissions [2010=1] plus Indirect Relative Change in Direct

c) 1.5

AIM Industry DNE21+ Iron/Steel 430-530 ppm CO2eq

AIM Iron/Steel DNE21+ Cement 530-650 ppm CO2eq AIM Cement IEA Low >650 ppm CO eq 1 2 IEA High 2010 Values= 1

0.5 528 Scenarios 120 Scenarios Max Max 0 75th Percentile Median 25th Percentile -0.5 Min Min

-1 Relative Change in Emission Intensity [2010=1]

-1.5 2020 2030 2050 2070 2100

Figure 10.11 | Industry sector scenarios over the 21st century that lead to low (430 – 530 ppm CO2eq), medium (530 – 650 ppm CO2eq) and high (> 650 ppm CO2eq) atmospheric

CO2eq concentrations in 2100 (see Table 6.3 for definitions of categories). All results are indexed relative to 2010 values for each scenario. Panels show: (a) final energy demand;

(b) direct plus indirect CO2eq emissions; (c) emission intensity (emissions from (b) divided by energy from (a)). Indirect emissions are emissions from industrial electricity demand. The median scenario (horizontal line symbol) surrounded by the darker colour bar (inner quartiles of scenarios) and lighter bar (full range) represent those 120 scenarios assessed in Chapter 6 with model default technology assumptions which submitted detailed final energy and emissions data for the industrial sector; white bars show the full range of scenarios including an additional 408, with alternate economic, resource, and technology assumptions (e. g., altering the economic and population growth rates, excluding some technology options or increasing response of energy efficiency improvement) (Source: WG III AR5 Scenario Database, see Annex II.10). Symbols are provided for selected scenarios for industry and industry sub-sectors (iron and steel, cement) for the IEA ETP (IEA, 2012d), AIM Enduse (Akashi et al., 2013 and Table A.II.14) and DNE21+ models (Sano et al.,

2013a, b; and Table A.II.14) for their baseline, 550 ppm and 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios to 2050.

2006; Sanstad et al., 2006) are used with various assumptions in the 2013; Sano et al., 2013). While energy efficiency of industry improves models that can better be characterized as gaps in integrated models with time, the growth of CCS in some scenarios leads to increases in currently in use. FE demand. Growth of final energy for cement production to 2050, for example, is seen in Figure 10.11(a) due to energy required for CCS in Final energy (FE) demand from industry increases in most scenarios, the cement industry mitigation scenarios (i. e., going from AIM cement as seen in Figure 10.11(a) driven by the growth of the industry sector; > 650 ppm CO2eq scenario to the < 650 ppm CO2eq scenarios). however, FE is weakly dependent on the 2100 CO2eq concentration in the scenarios, and the range of FE demand spanned by the scenarios After 2050, emissions from industry, including indirect emissions becomes wide in the latter half of the century (compare also Figure resulting from industrial electricity demand become very low, and in 6.37). In these scenarios, energy productivity improvements help to some scenarios even negative as seen in Figure 10.11(b). The emis- limit the increase in FE. For example, results of the DNE21+ and AIM sion intensity of FE shown in Figure 10.11(c) decreases in most sce- models include a 56 % and 114 % increase in steel produced from narios over the century, and decreases more strongly for low CO2eq 2010 to 2050 and a decrease in FE per unit production of 20 – 22 % concentration levels. A decrease in emission intensity is generally the and 28 – 34 % (these are the ranges spanned by the reference, 550 and dominant mechanism for decrease in direct plus indirect emissions in

450 ppm CO2eq scenarios for each model), respectively (Akashi et al., the < 650 ppm CO2eq scenarios shown in Figure 10.11. In scenarios

777 Industry Chapter 10

2.5 2010 2020 2030 2050 2070 2100

2.0 Economies in Transition OECD-1990 Countries 10 Middle East and Africa Latin America Asia 1.5 Relative Change in Final Energy [2010=1] Relative Change in Final Energy

1.0

0.5

0.0 eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq eq 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 >650 ppm CO >650 ppm CO >650 ppm CO >650 ppm CO >650 ppm CO 430-530 ppm CO 530-650 ppm CO 430-530 ppm CO 530-650 ppm CO 430-530 ppm CO 530-650 ppm CO 430-530 ppm CO 530-650 ppm CO 530-650 ppm CO 430-530 ppm CO

Figure 10.12 | Final energy demand from the industry sector shown for the RC5 regions (see Annex II.2 for definition) over the 21st century. Bars are compiled using information from 105 of the 120 scenarios assessed in Chapter 6, with model default technology assumptions that submitted detailed final energy and emissions data for the industrial sector. Bar height corresponds to the median scenario with respect to final energy demand relative to 2010; breakdown fractions correspond to the mean of scenarios. Source: WG III AR5 Scenario Database (see Annex II.10)

with strong decreases in emission intensity, this is generally due to in the share of electricity in 2100 compared to 2010, and generally some combination of application of CCS to direct industry emissions, show a decrease in the share of liquids / gases / hydrogen. Some of the

and a shift to a lower-carbon carrier of energy — for example, a shift < 650 ppm CO2eq scenarios show an increase in the share of solids in to low- or negative-carbon sources of electricity. Low carbon electric- 2100 compared to 2010 and some show a decrease. For the > 650 ppm

ity is assessed in Chapter 7 and bioenergy with CCS — which could in CO2eq scenarios, the change in shares from 2010 to 2100 is generally

theory result in net CO2 removal from the atmosphere — is assessed in smaller than the change in shares for the < 650 ppm CO2eq scenarios. Chapter 11, Section 11.13. A shift towards solids could lead to reduced emissions if the scenarios include the application of CCS to the emissions from solids. A shift Figure 10.12 shows the regional breakdown of final energy demand towards electricity could lead to reduced emissions if the electricity by world regions for different scenarios for the industrial sector. Over generation is from low emission energy sources. The strong decrease the 21st century, scenarios indicate that the growth of industry FE in indirect emissions from electricity demand in most 430 – 530 ppm

demand continues to be greatest in Asia, followed by the Middle East CO2eq scenarios is shown in Figure 6.34 (see Section 6.8), with elec- and Africa, although at a slower growth rate than seen over the last tricity emissions already negative in some scenarios by 2050. Each decade (see Section 10.3). The OECD-1990, Latin America, and Reform- pathway implies some degree of lock-in of technology types and their ing Economies regions are expected to comprise a decreasing fraction supporting infrastructure, which has important implications; e. g., of the world’s industrial FE. iron / steel in the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) route might follow a pathway with a higher solid fuel share but with CCS for direct emissions Figure 10.13 shows the projected changes in the shares of industry reduction by the industry. A decarbonized power sector provides the sector energy carriers — electricity, solids (primarily coal), and liquids, means to reduce the emission intensity of electricity use in the indus- gases and hydrogen — from 2010 to 2100 for 120 scenarios (com- trial sector, but barriers, such as a lack of a sufficient carbon price, exist pare also Figure 6.38 with low carbon fuel shares in industrial final (IEA, 2009b; Bassi et al., 2009). Barriers to decarbonization of electric-

energy). Scenarios for all CO2eq concentration levels show an increase ity are discussed in more detail in Section 7.10.

778 Chapter 10 Industry

Shares of Carriers in Final Energy in Industry

80%

430-530 ppm CO2eq 60% 530-650 ppm CO2eq 100% 0%

>650 ppm CO2eq 40% 2010 2050 20% 10 2100 80% 20% 0% Average Share 80% in 2010 60% 60% 40% Liquids, Gases, Solids 40% Hydrogen 20%

40% 60% 0% 80%

60% 20% 80% 40%

20%

0% 100% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Electricity Solids Liquids, Gases, Electricity Hydrogen

Figure 10.13 | The ternary panel on the left provides the industry final energy share trajectories across three groups of energy carriers: electricity, solids, and liquids-gases-hydrogen. The path of each scenario’s trajectory is shown by a single line with symbols at the start in 2010 (the diamond towards the lower right accounts for 3 of 120 trajectories generated from one model that start in 2010 at a higher solids and lower liquids, gases, hydrogen share than the remainder of the trajectories which start at the upper diamond), in 2050 and at the end in 2100. The lines in the three panels on the right show the shares of energy carriers for each of the trajectories in the ternary diagram in 2100; the diamonds show the average share across a panel’s models in 2010. Results are shown for those 120 scenarios assessed in Chapter 6, with model default technology assumptions that submitted detailed final energy and emissions data for the industrial sector. Source: WG III AR5 Scenario Database (see Annex II.10)

The IEA (2012d) 2DS scenario (Figure 10.14) shows a primary contri- industry is growing, particularly because investment in new facilities bution to mitigation in 2050 from energy efficiency followed by recy- provides the opportunity to ‘leapfrog’, or avoid the use of less-efficient cling and energy recovery, fuel and feedstock switching, and a strong higher emissions technologies present in existing facilities, thus offer- application of CCS to direct emissions. Carbon dioxide capture and ing the opportunity for more sustainable development (for discussion storage has limited application before 2030, since CO2 capture has yet of co-benefits and adverse side-effects when implementing mitigation to be applied at commercial scale in major industries such as cement options, see Section 10.8). or iron / steel and faces various barriers (see Section 10.9). Increased application of CCS is a precondition for rapid transitions and associ- The wide range of scenarios implies that there will be massive invest- ated high levels of technology development and investment as well ments in the industry sector over the 21st century. Mitigation scenarios as social acceptance. The AIM 450 CO2eq scenario (Akashi et al., 2013) generally imply an even greater investment in industry with shifts in has, for example, a stronger contribution from CCS than the IEA 2DS investment focus. For example, due to an intensive use of mitigation from 2030 onward, whereas the DNE21+ 450 ppm CO2eq scenario technologies in the IEA’s Blue Scenarios (IEA, 2009d), global invest- (Sano et al., 2013) has a weaker contribution as shown in Figure 10.14. ments in industry are 2 – 2.5 trillion USD higher by the middle of the These more detailed industry sector scenarios fall within the range of century than in the reference case; successfully deploying these tech- the full set of scenarios shown in Figure 10.11. nologies requires not only consideration of competing investment options, but also removal of barriers and seizing of new opportunities (see Section 10.9). 10.10.2 Transition, sustainable development, and investment The stringent mitigation scenarios discussed in Section 10.10.1 envis- age emission intensity reductions, in particular due to deployment of Transitions in industry will require significant investment and offer CCS. However, public acceptance of widespread diffusion of CCS might opportunities for sustainable development (e. g., employment). Invest- hinder the realization of such scenarios. Taking the potential resistance ment and development opportunities may be greatest in regions where into account, some alternative mitigation scenarios may require reduc-

779 Industry Chapter 10 eq] eq] 2 2 2010 2020 2030 2050 Recycling and Energy Recovery CCS 10,000 Energy Efﬁciency Total 5 Sectors 2DS low 2500 Chemicals/Petrochemicals Fuel and Feedstock Switching Iron/Steel Cement 8000 2000 10 Mitigation Potential [MtCO Mitigation Potential Mitigation Potential [MtCO Mitigation Potential

6000 1500

4000 1000

2000 500

0 0 eq eq eq eq 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 eq eq eq eq 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 AIM 450 CO AIM 550 CO AIM 550 CO AIM 450 CO ETP2012 2DS low ETP2012 4DS low ETP2012 2DS low ETP2012 4DS low ETP2012 2DS low ETP2012 4DS low DNE21+ 450 CO DNE21+ 450 CO DNE21+ 550 CO DNE21+ 550 CO

Figure 10.14 | Mitigation of direct CO2eq annual emissions in five major industrial sectors: iron / steel, cement, chemicals / petrochemicals, pulp / paper, and aluminium. The left panel shows results from IEA scenarios (IEA, 2012d), broken down by mitigation option. The tops of the bars show the IEA 4DS low demand scenario, the light blue bars show the 2DS low demand scenario. The bar layers show the mitigation options that contribute to the emission difference from the 4DS to the 2DS low demand scenario. The right panel shows mitigation by CCS of direct industrial emissions in IEA, AIM Enduse (Akashi et al., 2013 and Table A.II.14) and DNE21+ (Sano et al., 2013a, b; and Table A.II.14) models. Scenarios are shown for those subsectors where CCS was reported.

tion of energy service demand (Kainuma et al., 2013). For the industry 10.11 Sectoral policies sector, options to reduce material demand or reduce demand for products become important as the latter do not rely on investment challenges, although they face a different set of barriers and can have high transaction costs (see Section 10.9). It is important to note that there is no single policy that can address the full variety of mitigation options for the industry sector. In addition Industry-related climate change mitigation options vary widely and to overarching policies (see Chapter 15 in particular, and Chapters 14 may positively or negatively affect employment. Identifying mitiga- and 16), combinations of sectoral policies are needed. The diverse and tion options that enhance positive effects (e. g., due to some energy relatively even mix of policy types in the industrial sector reflects the efficiency improvements) and minimize the negative outcomes is fact that there are numerous barriers to energy and material efficiency therefore critical. Some studies have argued that climate change in the sector (see Section 10.9), and that industry is quite heteroge- mitigation policies can lead to unemployment and economic down- neous. In addition, the level of energy efficiency of industrial facili- turn (e. g. Babiker and Eckaus, 2007; Chateau et al., 2011) because ties varies significantly, both within subsectors and within and across such policies can threaten labour demand (e. g. Martinez-Fernandez regions. Most countries or regions use a mix of policy instruments, et al., 2010) and can be regressive (Timilsina, 2009). Alternatively, many of which interact. For example, energy audits for energy-inten- other studies suggest that environmental regulation could stimulate sive manufacturing firms are regularly combined with voluntary / nego- eco-innovation and investment in more efficient production tech- tiated agreements and energy management schemes (Anderson and niques and result in increased employment (OECD, 2009). Particu- Newell, 2004; Price and Lu, 2011; Rezessy and Bertoldi, 2011; Sten- larly, deployment of efficient energy technologies can lead to higher qvist and Nilsson, 2012). Tax exemptions are often combined with an employment (Wei et al., 2010; UNIDO, 2011) depending on how redis- obligation to conduct energy audits (Tanaka, 2011). Current practice tribution of investment funds takes place within an economy (Sath- acknowledges the importance of policy portfolios (e. g., Brown et al., aye and Gupta, 2010). 2011), as well as the necessity to consider national contexts and unin-

780 Chapter 10 Industry

tended behaviour of industrial companies. In terms of the latter, carbon duction technologies. Given the priorities of many governments, these leakage is relevant in the discussion of policies for industry (for a more indirect policies have played a relatively more effective role than cli- in-depth analysis of carbon leakage see Chapter 5). mate policies, e. g. in India (Roy, 2010).

So far, only a few national governments have evaluated their industry- specific policy mixes (Reinaud and Goldberg, 2011). For the UK, Barker 10.11.1 Energy efficiency et al. (2007) modelled the impact of the UK Climate Change Agree- 10 ments (CCAs) and estimated that from 2000 to 2010 they would result The use of energy efficiency policy in industry has increased appre- in a reduction of total final demand for energy of 2.6 % and a reduc- ciably in many IEA countries as well as major developing countries tion in CO2 emissions of 3.3 %. The CCAs established targets for indus- since the late 1990s (Roy, 2007; Worrell et al., 2009; Tanaka, 2011; trial energy-efficiency improvements in energy-intensive industrial sec- Halsnæs et al., 2014). A review of 575 policy measures found that, tors; firms that met the targets qualified for a reduction of 80 % on as of 2010, information programmes are the most prevalent (40 %), the Climate Change Levy (CCL) rates on energy use in these sectors. followed by economic instruments (35 %), and measures such as Barker et al. (2007) also show that the macro-economic effect on the regulatory approaches and voluntary actions (24 %) (Tanaka, 2011). UK economy from the policies was positive. Identification of energy efficiency opportunities through energy audits is the most popular measure, followed by subsidies, regulations for In addition to dedicated sector-specific mitigation policies, co-benefits equipment efficiency, and voluntary / negotiated agreements. A classi- (see Section 10.8 and this report’s framing chapters) should be consid- fication of the various types of policies and their coverage are shown ered. For example, local air quality standards have an indirect effect in Figure 10.15 and experiences in a range of these policies are ana- on mitigation as they set incentives for substitution of inefficient pro- lyzed below.

Equipment Process Factory/Works Entity Industry Whole Economy

Performance Standards Energy Management Regulatory Regulation Benchmark Target Approaches Control Retroﬁt/Replace, Mandated Technologies

Energy Management Voluntary Benchmark Target Actions Agreement Energy Saving Target

Energy/Carbon Tax

Tax Speciﬁc Tax Credit, Exemption, Deduction Economic Instruments Direct Preferential Loans Financial Incentive Subsidies Cap & Trade Scheme Tradable Allowances

Identiﬁcation of Data Collection, Auditing, Monitoring Opportunity Information Benchmarking Programmes Cooperative Partnership, Programme Measures Promotion

Training, Education Government Capacity Provision of Public Building Government Procurement Goods or Services Install Efﬁcient Technology

Figure 10.15 | Selected policies for energy efficiency in industry and their coverage (from Tanaka, 2011).

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Greenhouse gas cap-and-trade and carbon tax schemes that aim to studies report very quick payback for energy efficiency investments enhance energy efficiency in energy-intensive industry have been identified during such assessments (Price et al., 2008). For example, a established in developed countries, particularly in the last decade, and programme in Germany offering partial subsidies to SMEs for energy are recently emerging in some developing countries. The largest exam- audits was found to have saved energy at a cost to the German gov-

ple of these economic instruments by far is the European Emissions ernment of 2.4 – 5.7 USD2010 / tCO2 (Fleiter et al., 2012b). In another case, Trading Scheme (ETS). A more in-depth analysis of these overarching the energy audit program by the Energy Conservation Centre of Japan 10 mechanisms is provided in Chapter 15. (ECCJ), was found to provide positive net benefits for society, defined as the net benefit to private firms minus the costs to government, of

Among regulatory approaches, regulations and energy efficiency stan- 65 USD2010 / tCO2 (Kimura and Noda, 2010). On the other hand, there dards for equipment have increased dramatically since 1992 (Tanaka, are also studies that report mixed results of some mandatory EMS and 2011). With regards to target-driven policies, one of the key initiatives energy audits, where some companies did not achieve any energy effi- for realizing the energy intensity reduction goals in China was the Top- ciency improvements (Kimura and Noda, 2010). 1,000 Energy-Consuming Enterprises programme that required the establishment of energy-saving targets, energy use reporting systems Many countries use benchmarking to compare energy use among and energy conservation plans, adoption of incentives and investments, different facilities within a particular sector (Tanaka, 2008; Price and

and audits and training. The programme resulted in avoided CO2 emis- McKane, 2009). In the Netherlands, for example, the Benchmarking

sions of approximately 400 MtCO2 compared to a business-as-usual Covenants encourage companies to compare themselves to others and baseline, and has been expanded to include more facilities under the to commit to becoming among the most energy-efficient in the world. new Top-10,000 enterprise programme. (Lin et al., 2011; Price et al., However, in many countries high-quality energy efficiency data for 2011; NDRC, 2011b) benchmarking is lacking (Saygin et al., 2011b).

Many firms (in particular SMEs) with rather low energy costs as a Negotiated, or voluntary agreements (VAs), have been found in share of their revenue allocate fewer resources to improving energy various assessments to be effective and cost-efficient (Rezessy and efficiency, resulting in a low level of knowledge about the availabil- Bertoldi, 2011). Agreement programmes (e. g., in Ireland, France, ity of energy-efficiency options (Gruber and Brand, 1991; Ghosh and the Netherlands, Denmark, UK, Sweden) were often responsible for Roy, 2011). Energy audits help to overcome such information barriers increasing the adoption of energy-efficiency and mitigation technolo- (Schleich, 2004) and can result in the faster adoption of energy-effi- gies by industries beyond what would have been otherwise adopted cient measures (Fleiter et al., 2012b). The effectiveness of 22 industrial without the programmes (Price et al., 2010; Stenqvist and Nilsson, energy auditing programmes in 15 countries has been reviewed by 2012). Some key factors contributing to successful VAs appear to be Price and Lu (2011), who give recommendations on the success factors a strong institutional framework, a robust and independent moni- (e. g., use of public databases for benchmarking, use of incentives for toring and evaluation system, credible mechanisms for dealing with participation in audits). non-compliance, capacity-building and — very importantly — accom- panying measures such as free or subsidized energy audits, manda- Energy Management Systems (EnMS) are a collection of business tory energy management plans, technical assistance, information and processes, carried out at plants and firms, designed to encourage financing for implementation (Rezessy and Bertoldi, 2011), as well as and facilitate systematic improvement in energy efficiency. The typi- dialogue between industry and government (Yamaguchi, 2012). Fur- cal elements of EnMS include maintenance checklists, measurement ther discussion and examples of the effectiveness of VAs can be found processes, performance indicators and benchmarks, progress reporting, in Chapter 15. and on-site energy managers (McKane, 2007). The adoption of EnMS schemes in industry can be mandatory, as in Japan, Italy, Turkey, or Portugal (Tanaka, 2011) or voluntary, and can be guided by standards, 10.11.2 Emissions efficiency such as the international standard ISO 5000121. Backlund et al. and Thollander and Palm (2012; 2013) argue that improvement in practices Policies directed at increasing energy efficiency (discussed above) most

identified by EnMS and audits should be given a greater role in studies often result in reduction of CO2 intensity as well, in particular when the of potential for energy efficiency, as most studies concentrate only on aim is to make the policy part of a wider policy mix addressing multiple the technological and economic potentials. policy objectives. Examples of emissions efficiency policy strategies include support schemes and fiscal incentives for fuel switching, R&D

There are a number of case studies that argue for the environmen- programmes for CCS, and inclusion of reduction of non-CO2 gases in tal and economic effectiveness of EnMS and energy audits (Ander- voluntary agreements (e. g., Japanese voluntary action plan Keidanren, son and Newell, 2004; Ogawa et al., 2011; Shen et al., 2012). Some see Chapter 15).

Regarding gases with a relatively high GWP such as HFCs, PFCs, 21 http: / / www.iso. org / iso / home / standards / management-standards / iso50001.htm. and SF6, successful policy examples exist for capture in the power

782 Chapter 10 Industry

sector (e. g., Japan; Nishimura and Sugiyama, 2008), but there is An assessment of the savings through the NISP estimated that over 6 not much experience in the industry sector. The CDM has driven MtCO2eq were saved over the first five years (Laybourn and Morrissey, abatement of the industrial gases HFC-23 and N2O in developing 2009). The PIUS-Check initiative by the German state of North Rhine- countries because of monetary incentives (Michaelowa and Buen, Westphalia (NRW) offers audits to companies where the relevant 2012)22. Including high GWP emissions within the same cap and material flows are analyzed and recommendations for improvements trade programme (and therefore prices) as energy-related emissions are made. These PIUS-checks have been particularly successful in metal may draw opposition from the industries concerned, so special pro- processing industries, and it is estimated that they have saved 20 thou- 10 grammes for these gases could be a better alternative (Hall, 2007). sand tonnes of CO2 (EC, 2009). Another option suggested is to charge an upfront fee that would then be refunded when the gases are later captured and destroyed In the Asia and Pacific region there are a number of region-specific (Hall, 2007). policy instruments for climate change mitigation through SCP, such as the China Refrigerator Project, which realized emissions reductions

of about 11 MtCO2 between 1999 and 2005 by combining several 10.11.3 Material efficiency practices including sustainable product design, technological innovation, eco-labelling, and awareness raising of consumers and retailers Policy instruments for material or resource use efficiency in general (SWITCH-Asia Network Facility, 2009). However, there is still a lack of are only just starting to be promoted for mitigation of GHG emissions solid ex-post assessments on SCP policy impacts. in industry; consequently, effective communication to industry on the need and potential for an integrated approach is still lacking (Letten- Besides industry-specific policies there are policies with a different sec- meier et al., 2009). Similarly, waste management policies are still not tor focus that influence industrial activity indirectly, by reducing the driven by climate concerns, although the potential for GHG emission need for products (e. g., car pooling incentive schemes can lead to reductions through waste management is increasingly recognized the production of less cars) or industrial materials (e. g., vehicle fuel and accounted for (see Section 10.14, e. g., Worrell and van Sluisveld, economy targets can incentivize the design of lighter vehicles). A stra- 2013). Several economic instruments (e. g., taxes and charges) related tegic approach in order to reflect the economy-wide resource use and to waste disposal have been shown to be effective in preventing waste, the global risks may consist of national accounting systems beyond although they do not necessarily lead to improved design measures GDP24 (Jackson, 2009; Roy and Pal, 2009; Arrow et al., 2010; GEA, being taken further upstream (Hogg et al., 2011). 2012), including systems to account for increasing resource productivity (OECD, 2008; Bringezu and Bleischwitz, 2009) and of new inter- A number of policy packages are directly and indirectly aimed national initiatives to spur systemic eco-innovations in key areas such at reducing material input per unit of product or unit of service as cement and steel production, light-weight cars, resource efficient demand. Some examples are the European Action Plan on Sustain- construction, and reducing food waste. able Consumption and Production (SCP) and Sustainable Industry (EC, 2008a), the EU’s resource efficiency strategy and roadmap (EC, 2011, 2012b), and Germany’s resource efficiency programme, Prog- Ress (BMU, 2012). SCP policies23 include both voluntary and regula- 10.12 Gaps in knowledge tory instruments, such as the EU Eco-design Directive, as well as the and data Green Public Procurement policies. Aside from setting a framework and long-term goals for future legislation and setting up networks and knowledge bases, these packages include few specific policies and, most importantly, do not set quantitative targets nor explic- The key challenge for making an assessment of the industry sector is itly address the link between material efficiency and GHG emission the diversity in practices, which results in uncertainty, lack of com- reductions. parability, incompleteness, and quality of data available in the public domain on process and technology specific energy use and costs. Some single policies (as opposed to policy packages) related to mate- This diversity makes assessment of mitigation potential with high con- rial efficiency do include an assessment of their impacts in terms of fidence at global and regional scales extremely difficult. Sector data GHG emissions. For example, the UK’s National Industrial Symbiosis are generally collected by industry / trade associations (international Programme (NISP) brokers the exchange of resources between com- or national), are highly aggregated, and generally give little informa- panies (for an explanation of industrial symbiosis, see Section 10.5). tion about individual processes. The enormous variety of processes and technologies adds to the complexity of assessment (Tanaka, 2008, 2012; Siitonen et al., 2010). 22 For a more in-depth analysis of CDM as a policy instrument, see Chapter 13, Sections 13.7.2 and 13.13.1.2. 23 SCP policies are also covered in Chapter 4 (Sustainable Development and Equity, Section 4.4.3.1 SCP policies and programmes) 24 For example, the EU’s “Beyond GDP Initiative”: http: / / www.beyond-gdp.eu /

783 Industry Chapter 10

Other major gaps in knowledge identified are: acid and nitric acid production and PFC emissions from aluminium production decreased while HFC-23 emissions from HCFC-22 production • A systematic approach and underlying methodologies to avoid increased. In the period 1990 – 2005, fluorinated gases (F-gases) were

double counting due to the many different ways of attributing the most important non-CO2 GHG source in manufacturing industry. emissions (10.1). (10.3) • An in-depth assessment of mitigation potential and associated 10 costs achievable particularly through material efficiency and demand-side options (10.4). FAQ 10.2 What are the main mitigation options • Analysis of climate change impacts on industry and industry-spe- in the industry sector and what is the cific mitigation options, as well as options for adaptation (10.6). potential for reducing GHG emissions? • Comprehensive information on sector and sub-sector specific option-based mitigation potential and associated costs based on a Most industry sector scenarios indicate that demand for materials comparable methodology and transparent assumptions (10.7). (steel, cement, etc.) will increase by between 45 % to 60 % by 2050 • Effect on long-term scenarios of demand reduction strategies relative to 2010 production levels. To achieve an absolute reduc- through an improved modelling of material flows, inclusion of tion in emissions from the industry sector will require a broad set regional producer behaviour model parameters in integrated mod- of mitigation options going beyond current practices. Options for els (10.10). mitigation of GHG emissions from industry fall into the following • Understanding of the net impacts of different types of policies, categories: energy efficiency, emissions efficiency (including fuel and the mitigation potential of linked policies e. g., resource effi- feedstock switching, carbon dioxide capture and storage), material ciency / energy efficiency policies, as well as policy as drivers of car- efficiency (for example through reduced yield losses in production), bon leakage effects (10.11). re-use of materials and recycling of products, more intensive and longer use of products, and reduced demand for product services. (10.4, 10.10)

10.13 Frequently Asked In the last two to three decades there have been strong improve- Questions ments in energy and process efficiency in industry, driven by the relatively high share of energy costs. Many options for energy efficiency improvement still remain, and there is still potential to reduce the gap between actual energy use and the best practice in many industries. FAQ 10.1 How much does the industry sector Based on broad deployment of best available technologies, the GHG contribute to GHG emissions? emissions intensity of the sector could be reduced through energy efficiency by approximately 25 %. Through innovation, additional reduc- Global industrial GHG emissions accounted for just over 30 % of tions of approximately 20 % in energy intensity may potentially be global GHG emissions in 2010. Global industry and waste / wastewater realized before approaching technological limits in some energy inten-

GHG emissions grew from 10 GtCO2eq in 1990 to 13 GtCO2eq in 2005 sive industries. (10.4, 10.7)

to 15 GtCO2eq in 2010. Over half (52 %) of global direct GHG emissions from industry and waste / wastewater are from the ASIA region, In addition to energy efficiency, material efficiency — using less new followed by OECD-1990 (25 %), EIT (9 %), MAF (8 %), and LAM (6 %). material to provide the same final service — is an important and prom- GHG emissions from industry grew at an average annual rate of 3.5 % ising option for GHG reductions that has had little attention to date. globally between 2005 and 2010. This included 7 % average annual Long-term step-change options, including a shift to low carbon elec- growth in the ASIA region, followed by MAF (4.4 %) and LAM (2 %), tricity or radical product innovations (e. g., alternatives to cement), may and the EIT countries (0.1 %), but declined in the OECD-1990 coun- have the potential to contribute to significant mitigation in the future. tries (– 1.1 %). (10.3) (10.4)

In 2010, industrial GHG emissions were comprised of direct energy-

related CO2 emissions of 5.3 GtCO2eq, 5.2 GtCO2eq indirect CO2 emis- FAQ 10.3 How will the level of product demand,

sions from production of electricity and heat for industry, process CO2 interactions with other sectors, and

emissions of 2.6 GtCO2eq, non-CO2 GHG emissions of 0.9 GtCO2eq, collaboration within the industry sector

and waste / wastewater emissions of 1.4 GtCO2eq. (10.3) affect emissions from industry?

2010 direct and indirect emissions were dominated by CO2 (85.1 %) The level of demand for new and replacement products has a sig-

followed by CH4 (8.6 %), HFC (3.5 %), N2O (2.0 %), PFC (0.5 %) and SF6 nificant effect on the activity level and resulting GHG emissions in

(0.4 %) emissions. Between 1990 and 2010, N2O emissions from adipic the industry sector. Extending product life and using products more

784 Chapter 10 Industry

intensively could contribute to reduction of product demand without enhance corporate reputation through indirect social and environmen- reducing the service. However, assessment of such strategies needs tal benefits at the local level. Associated positive health effects can a careful net-balance (including calculation of energy demand in the enhance public acceptance. Mitigation can also lead to job creation production process and associated GHG emissions). Absolute emis- and wider environmental gains such as reduced air and water pollu- sion reductions can also come about through changes in lifestyle and tion and reduced extraction of raw materials which in turn leads to their corresponding demand levels, be it directly (e. g., for food, tex- reduced GHG emissions. (10.8) tiles) or indirectly (e. g., for product / service demand related to tour- 10 ism). (10.4)

Mitigation strategies in other sectors may lead to increased emissions 10.14 Appendix: Waste in industry if they require enhanced use of energy intensive materials (e. g., higher production of solar cells (PV) and insulation materials for buildings). Moreover, collaborative interactions within the industry sec- 10.14.1 Introduction tor and between the industry sector and other economic sectors have significant potential for mitigation (e. g., heat cascading). In addition, Waste generation and reuse is an integral part of human activity. inter-sectoral cooperation, i. e., collaborative interactions among indus- Figure 10.2 and Section 10.4 have shown how industries enhance tries in industrial parks or with regional eco-industrial networks, can resource use efficiency through recycling or reuse before discarding contribute to mitigation. (10.5) resources to landfills, which follows the waste hierarchy shown in Fig- ure 10.16. Several mitigation options exist at the pre-consumer stage. Most important is reduction in waste during production processes. FAQ 10.4 What are the barriers to reducing emis- With regard to post-consumer waste, associated GHG emissions heav- sions in industry and how can these be ily depend on how waste is treated. overcome? Are there any co-benefits associated with mitigation actions in This section provides a summary of knowledge on current emissions industry? from wastes generated from various economic activities (focusing on solid waste and wastewater) and discusses the mitigation options Implementation of mitigation measures in industry faces a variety of to reduce emissions and recover materials and energy from solid barriers. Typical examples include: the expectation of high return on wastes. investment (short payback period); high capital costs and long project development times for some measures; lack of access to capital for energy efficiency improvements and feedstock / fuel change; fair 10.14.2 Emissions trends market value for cogenerated electricity to the grid; and costs / lack of awareness of need for control of HFC leakage. In addition, businesses today are mainly rewarded for growing sales volumes and 10.14.2.1 Solid waste disposal can prefer process innovation over product innovation. Existing national accounting systems based on GDP indicators also support The ‘hierarchy of waste management’ as shown in Figure 10.16, places the pursuit of actions and policies that aim to increase demand for waste reduction at the top, followed by re-use, recycling, energy recov- products and do not trigger product demand reduction strategies. ery (including anaerobic digestion), treatment without energy recov- (10.9) ery (including incineration and composting) and four types of landfills ranging from modern sanitary landfills that treat liquid effluents Addressing the causes of investment risk, and better provisioning of and also attempt to capture and use the generated biogas, through user demand in the pursuit of human well-being could enable the to traditional non-sanitary landfills (waste designated sites that lack reduction of industry emissions. Improvements in technologies, effi- controlled measures) and open burning. Finally, at the bottom of the cient sector specific policies (e. g., economic instruments, regulatory pyramid are crude disposal methods in the form of waste dumps approaches and voluntary agreements), and information and energy (designated or non-designated waste disposal sites without any kind management programmes could all contribute to overcome tech- of treatment) that are still dominant in many parts of the world. The nological, financial, institutional, legal, and cultural barriers. (10.9, hierarchy shown in Figure 10.16 provides general guidance. However, 10.11) lifecycle assessment of the overall impacts of a waste management strategy for specific waste composition and local circumstances may Implementation of mitigation measures in industries and related poli- change the priority order (EC, 2008b). cies might gain momentum if co-benefits (10.8) are considered along with direct economic costs and benefits (10.7). Mitigation actions can Municipal solid wastes (MSW) are the most visible and trouble- improve cost competitiveness, lead to new market opportunities, and some residues of human society. The total amount of MSW gener-

785 Industry Chapter 10

ated globally has been estimated at about 1.5 Gt per year (Theme- Inventory Model (CALMIM) (see Spokas et al., 2011; Spokas and Bog- lis, 2007) and it is expected to increase to approximately 2.2 Gt by ner, 2011; Bogner et al., 2011). 2025 (Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata, 2012). Of the current amount, approximately 300 Mt are recycled, 200 Mt are treated with energy Global waste emissions per unit of GDP decreased 27 % from 1970 to recovery, another 200 Mt are disposed in sanitary landfills, and the 1990 and 34 % from 1990 to 2010, with a decrease of 48 % for the remaining 800 Mt are discarded in non-sanitary landfills or dumps. entire period (1970 – 2010). Global waste emissions per capita 10 Thus, much of the recoverable matter in MSW is dispersed through increased 10 % between 1970 and 1990, decreased 5 % from 1990 to mixing with other materials and exposure to reactive environmental 2010, with a net increase of 5 % for the entire period 1970 – 2010 (Fig- conditions. The implications for GHG and other emissions are related ure 10.17). Several reasons may explain these trends: GHG emissions not only to the direct emissions from waste management, but also from waste in EU, mainly from solid waste disposal on land and waste- to the emissions from production of materials to replace those lost water handling decreased by 19.4 % in the decade 2000 – 2009; the in the waste. decline is notable when compared to total EU27 emissions over the same period, which decreased by 9.3 %25. Energy production from Figure 10.17 presents global emissions from waste from 1970 until waste in the EU in 2009 was more than double that generated in 2000, 2010 based on EDGAR version 4.2. Methane emissions from solid while biogas has experienced a 270 % increase in the same period. waste disposal almost doubled between 1970 and 2010. The drop in With the introduction of the Landfill Directive 10 1999 / 31 / EC, the EU

CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) starting around has established a powerful tool to reduce the amount of biodegrad- 1990 is most likely related to the decrease in such emissions in Europe able municipal waste disposed in landfills (Blodgett and Parker, 2010). and the United States. However, it is important to note that the First Moreover, methane emissions from landfills in the United States Order Decay (FOD) model used in estimating emissions from solid waste disposal sites in the EDGAR database does not account for cli- 25 Eurostat 2013, available at http: / / epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu / statistics_ mate and soil micro-climate conditions like California Landfill Methane explained / index.php / Climate_change_-_driving_forces.

Waste Avoidance and Reduction Prevention

Re-Use Preparing for Re-use

Recycling Recycling

Energy Recovery

Landﬁll with Methane Recovery and Use Other Recovery

Treatment without Energy Recovery

Landﬁll with Methane Flared

Landﬁll with Methane Escape Disposal Unsanitary Landﬁll/Open Burning

Waste Dump

Figure 10.16 | The hierarchy of waste management. The priority order and colour coding is based on the five main groups of waste hierarchy classification (Prevention; Preparing for Re-Use; Recycling; Other Recovery e. g., Energy Recovery; and Disposal) outlined by the European Commission (EC, 2008b).

786 Chapter 10 Industry

1.8 eq/yr] 2 Other Waste Handling Waste Emissions per Capita Waste Incineration Waste Emissions / GDP Total 1500 Wastewater Handling 1.6 Solid Waste Disposal on Land 10 GHG Emissions [MtCO

1.4 Emissions Index [1970=1] Waste 1200

1.2

900

1.0

600

0.8

300 0.6

0 0.4 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 10.17 | Global waste emissions MtCO2eq / year, global waste emissions per GDP and global waste emissions per capita referred to 1970 values. Based on JRC / PBL (2013), see Annex II.9. decreased by approximately 27 % from 1990 to 2010. This net emis- rest are from domestic wastewater (40 %) and industrial wastewater sions decrease can be attributed to many factors, including changes in (38 %). Domestic wastewater is the dominant source of CH4 in India. waste composition, an increase in the amount of landfill gas collected The decrease of GHG emissions in the waste sector in the EU and the and combusted, a higher frequency of composting, and increased rates United States from 1990 to 2009 has not been enough to compensate of recovery of degradable materials for recycling, e. g., paper and for the increase of emissions in other regions resulting in an overall paperboard (EPA, 2012b). increasing trend of total waste-related GHG emissions in that period.

China’s GHG emissions in the waste sector increased rapidly in the 1981 to 2009 period, along with the growing scale of waste genera- 10.14.2.2 Wastewater tion by industries as well as households in urban and rural areas (Qu and Yang, 2011). A 79 % increase in landfill methane emissions was Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from wastewater steadily estimated between 1990 (2.4 Mt) and 2000 (4.4 Mt) due to changes increased during the last decades reaching 667 and 108 MtCO2eq in in both the amount and composition of municipal waste gener- 2010, respectively. Methane emissions from domestic / commercial ated (Streets et al., 2001) and emission of China’s waste sector will and industrial categories are responsible for 86 % of wastewater GHG peak at 33.2 MtCO2eq in 2024 (Qu and Yang, 2011). In India (INCCA, emissions during the period 1970 – 2010, while the domestic / commer-

2010), the waste sector contributed 3 % of total national CO2 emis- cial sector was responsible for approximately 80 % of the methane sion equivalent of which 22 % is from municipal solid waste and the emissions from wastewater category.

787 Industry Chapter 10

10.14.3 Technological options for mitigation of Post-consumer waste can be linked with pre-consumer material emissions from waste through the principle of Extended Producer Responsibility in order to divert the waste going to landfills. This principle or policy is the explicit attribution of responsibility to the waste-generating par- 10.14.3.1 Pre-consumer waste ties, preferably already in the pre-consumer phase. In Germany, for example, the principle of producer responsibility for their products in 10 Waste reduction the post-consuming phase is made concrete by the issuing of regula- Pre-consumer (or post-industrial) waste is the material diverted from tions (de Jong, 1997). Sustainable consumption and production and the waste stream during a manufacturing process that does not reach its influence on waste minimization are discussed also in Section the end user. This does not include the reutilization of materials gener- 10.11. ated in a process that can be re-used as a substitute for raw materials (10.4) without being modified in any way. Waste reduction at the pre- Recycling / reuse consumer stage can be achieved by optimizing the use of raw materi- If reduction of post-consumer waste cannot be achieved, reuse and als, e. g., arranging the pattern of pieces to be cut on a length of fabric recycling is the next priority in order to reduce the amount of waste or metal sheet enable maximum utilization of material with minimum produced and to divert it from disposal (Valerio, 2010). Recycling of of waste. post-consumer waste can be achieved with high economic value to protect the environment and conserve the natural resources (El-Hag- Recycling and reuse gar, 2010). Section 10.4 discusses this in the context of reuse in indus- Material substitution through waste generated from an industrial tries. process or manufacturing chain can lead to reduction in total energy requirements (10.4) and hence emissions. Section 10.4 discusses As cities have become hotspots of material flows and stock density options for recycling and reuse in the manufacturing industries. The (Baccini and Brunner, 2012, p. 31) (see Chapter 12), MSW can be same section also discusses the use of municipal solid waste as seen as a material reservoir that can be mined. This can be done energy source or feedstock, e. g., for the cement industry, as well as not only through current recycling and / or energy recovery processes the possible use of industrial waste for mineralization approaches for (10.4), but also by properly depositing and concentrating substances CCS. (e. g., metals, paper, plastic) in order to make their recuperation technically and economically viable in the future. The current amount of materials accumulated mainly in old / mature settlements, for the 10.14.3.2 Post-consumer waste most part located in developed countries (Graedel, 2010), exceeds the amount of waste currently produced (Baccini and Brunner, 2012, Pre-consumer (or post-industrial) waste is the material resulting from p. 50). a manufacturing process, which joins the waste stream and does not reach the end use. The top priority of the post-consumer waste man- With a high degree of agreement, it has been suggested that urban agement is reduction followed by re-use and recycling. mining (as a contribution towards a zero waste scenario) could reduce important energy inputs of material future demands in con- Waste reduction trast to domestically produced and, even more important for some To a certain extent, the amount of post-consumer waste is related to countries, imported materials, while contributing to future material lifestyle. On a per capita basis, Japan and the EU have about 60 % of accessibility. the US waste generation rates based significantly on different consumer behavior and regulations. Globally, a visionary goal of ‘zero Landfilling and methane capture from landfills waste’ assists countries in designing waste reduction strategies, tech- It has been estimated (Themelis and Ulloa, 2007) that annually about nologies, and practices, keeping in mind other resource availability like 50 Mt of methane is generated in global landfills, 6 Mt of which are land. Home composting has been successfully used in some regions, captured at sanitary landfills. Sanitary landfills that are equipped to which reduces municipal waste generation rates (Favoino and Hogg, capture methane at best capture 50 % of the methane generated; 2008; Andersen et al., 2010). however, significantly higher collection efficiencies have been demonstrated at certain well designed and operated landfills with final Non-technological behavioural strategies aim to avoid or reduce caps / covers of up to 95 %. waste, for instance by decoupling waste generation from economic activity levels such as GDP (Mazzanti and Zoboli, 2008). In addition, The capital investment needed to build a sanitary landfill is less than strategies are in place that aim to enhance the use of materials and 30 % of a waste-to-energy (WTE) plant of the same daily capacity. products that are easy to recycle, reuse, and recover (Sections 10.4, However, because of the higher production of electricity (average of 10.11) in close proximity facilities. 0.55 MWh of electricity per metric tonne of MSW in the U. S. vs 0.1

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MWh for a sanitary landfill), a WTE plant is usually more economic Energy recovery from waste over its lifetime of 30 years or more (Themelis and Ulloa, 2007). In With the exception of metals, glass, and other inorganic materials, other regions, however, the production of methane from landfills may MSW consists of biogenic and petrochemical compounds made of car- be lower due to the reduction of biodegradable fraction entering the bon and hydrogen atoms. landfills or operating costs may be lower. Therefore, economics of both options may be different in such cases. The energy contained in solid wastes can be recovered by means of several thermal treatment technologies including combustion of as- 10 Landfill aeration received solid wastes on a moving grate, shredding of MSW and com- Landfill aeration can be considered as an effective method for GHG bustion on a grate or fluidized bed, mechanical-biological treatment emissions reduction in the future (Ritzkowski and Stegmann, 2010). In (MBT) of MSW into compost, refuse-derived fuel (RDF) or biogas from situ aeration is one technology that introduces ambient air into MSW anaerobic digestion, partial combustion and gasification to a synthetic landfills to enhance biological processes and to inhibit methane pro- gas that is then combusted in a second chamber, and pyrolysis of duction (Chai et al., 2013). Ambient air is introduced in the landfill via source-separated plastic wastes to a synthetic oil. At this time, an esti- a system of gas wells, which results in accelerated aerobic stabilization mated 90 % of the world’s WTE capacity (i. e., about 180 Mt per year) is of deposited waste. The resulting gas is collected and treated (Heyer based on combustion of as-received MSW on a moving grate; the same et al., 2005; Prantl et al., 2006). Biological stabilization of the waste is true of the nearly 120 new WTE plants that were built worldwide in using in-situ aeration provides the possibility to reduce both the actual the period of 2000 – 2007 (Themelis, 2007). emissions and the emission potential of the waste material (Prantl et al., 2006). WTE plants require sophisticated Air Pollution Control (APC) systems that constitute a large part of the plant. In the last twenty Landfill aeration, which is not widely applied yet, is a promising tech- years, because of the elaborate and costly APC systems, modern WTE nology for treating the residual methane from landfills utilizing land- plants have become one of the cleanest high temperature industrial fill gas for energy when energy recovery becomes economically unat- processes (Nzihou et al., 2012). Source separation of high moisture tractive (Heyer et al., 2005; Ritzkowski et al., 2006; Rich et al., 2008). organic wastes from the MSW increases the thermal efficiency of WTE In the absence of mandatory environmental regulations that require plants. the collection and flaring of landfill gas, landfill aeration might be applied to closed landfills or landfill cells without prior gas collection Most of the mitigation options mentioned above require expenditures and disposal or utilization. For an in situ aerated landfill in north- and, therefore, are more prevalent in developed countries with higher ern Germany, for example, landfill aeration achieved a reduction in GDP levels. A notable exception to this general rule is China, where methane emissions by 83 % to 95 % under strictly controlled condi- government policy has encouraged the construction of over 100 WTE tions (Ritzkowski and Stegmann, 2010). Pinjing et al. (2011) show plants during the first decade of the 21st century (Dong, 2011). Figure that landfill aeration is associated with increased 2N O emissions. 10.18 shows the share of different management practices concerning the MSW generated in several nations (Themelis and Bourtsalas, Composting and anaerobic digestion 2013). China, with 18 % WTE and less than 3 % recycling, is at the level Municipal solid waste (MSW) contains ‘green’ wastes such as leaves, of Slovakia. grass, and other garden and park residues, and also food wastes. Generally, green wastes are source-separated and composted aer- The average chemical energy stored in MSW is about 10 MJ / kg (lower obically (i. e., in presence of oxygen) in windrows. However, food heating value, LHV), corresponding to about 2.8 MWh per tonne. The wastes contain meat and other substances that, when composted average net thermal efficiency of U. S. WTE plants (i. e., electricity to in windrows, emit unpleasant odours. Therefore, food wastes need the grid) is 20 %, which corresponds to 0.56 MWh per tonne of MSW. to be anaerobically digested in closed biochemical reactors. The However, additional energy can be recovered from the exhaust steam methane generated in these reactors can be used in a gas engine to of the turbine generator. For example, some plants in Denmark and produce electricity, or for heating purposes. Source separation, col- elsewhere recover 0.5 MWh of electricity plus 1 MWh of district heat- lection, and anaerobic digestion of food wastes are costly and so far ing. A full discussion of the R1 factor, used in the EU for defining over- have been applied to small quantities of food wastes in a few cit- all thermal efficiency of a WTE plant can be found in Themelis et al. ies (e. g., Barcelona, Toronto, Vienna; Arsova, 2010), except in cases (2013). where some food wastes are co-digested with agricultural residues. In contrast, windrow composting is practiced widely; for example, Studies of the biogenic and fossil-based carbon based on C14-C12 62 % of the U. S. green wastes (22.7 million tonnes) were compos- measurements on stack gas of nearly forty WTE plants in the United ted aerobically in 2006 (Arsova et al., 2008), while only 0.68 million States have shown that about 65 % of the carbon content of MSW tonnes of food wastes (i. e., 2.2 % of total food wastes; EPA, 2006a) is biogenic (i. e., from paper, food wastes, wood, etc.) (Themelis et al., were recovered. 2013) .

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Austria oping countries, there is little or no collection and treatment of waste- Germany Netherlands water, anaerobic systems such as latrines, open sewers, or lagoons Belgium (Karakurt et al., 2012). Approximately 47 % of wastewater produced Switzerland in the domestic and manufacturing sectors is untreated, particularly Singapore Sweden in South and Southeast Asia, but also in Northern Africa as well as Taiwan Central and South America (Flörke et al., 2013). Wastewater treatment 10 Denmark Japan plants are highly capital-intensive but inflexible to adapt to growing Norway demands, especially in rapidly expanding cities. Therefore, innovations Korea related to decentralized wastewater infrastructure are becoming prom- Luxembourg France ising. These innovations include satellite systems, actions to achieve EU (27 countries) reduced wastewater flows, recovery and utilization of the energy con- United Kingdom tent present in wastewater, recovery of nutrients, and the production Finland Italy of water for recycling, which will be needed to address the impacts of Ireland population growth and climate change (Larsen et al., 2013). Slovenia Australia Spain Industrial wastewater from the food industry usually has both high Portugal biochemical and chemical oxygen demand and suspended solid con- United States centrations of organic origin that induce a higher GHG production Hungary Czech Republic per volume of wastewater treated compared to municipal wastewa- Canada ter treatment. The characteristics of the wastewater and the off-site Poland Iceland GHG emissions have a significant impact on the total GHG emis- Estonia sions attributed to the wastewater treatment plants (Bani Shahabadi Cyprus et al., 2009). For example, in the food processing industry with aero- Greece China bic / anaerobic / hybrid process, the biological processes in the treat- Slovakia ment plant made for the highest contribution to GHG emissions in the Malta aerobic treatment system, while off-site emissions are mainly due to Latvia Lithuania material usage and represent the highest emissions in anaerobic and Russia hybrid treatment systems. Industrial cluster development in develop- Romania ing countries like China and India are enhancing wastewater treatment Brasil Turkey and recycling (see also Section 10.5). 0 20 40 60 80 100

% Recycled/Composted % Landﬁlled % WtE Regional variation in wastewater quality matters in terms of performance of technological options. Conventional systems may be tech- nologically inadequate to handle the locally produced sewage in arid Figure 10.18 | Management practices concerning MSW in several nations (based on World Bank and national statistics, methodology described in Themelis and Bourtsalas areas like the Middle East. In these areas, domestic wastewater are up (2013). to five times more concentrated in the amount of biochemical and / or chemical oxygen demand per volume of sewage in comparison with United States and Europe, causing large amounts of sludge production. 10.14.3.3 Wastewater In these cases, choosing an appropriate treatment technology for the community could be a sustainable solution for wastewater manage- As a preventive measure, primary and secondary aerobic and land treatment and emissions control. Example solutions include upflow anaero-

ment help reduce CH4 emissions during wastewater treatment. Alter- bic sludge blanket, hybrid reactors, soil aquifer treatment, approaches

natively, CH4 emissions from wastewater, including sludge treatment based on pathogens treatment, and reuse of the treated effluent for under anaerobic conditions, can be captured and used as an energy agricultural reuse (Bdour et al., 2009). source (Karakurt et al., 2012). Nitrous oxide is mainly released during biological nitrogen removal in wastewater treatment plants, primarily Wetlands can be a sustainable solution for municipal wastewater in aerated zones thus improved plant design and operational strategies treatment due to their low cost, simple operation and maintenance, (availability of dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand and nitro- minimal secondary pollution, favourable environmental appearance, gen ratio COD / N) have to be achieved in order to avoid the stripping of and other ecosystem service benefits (Mukherjee, 1999; Chen et al., nitrous emissions (Kampschreur et al., 2009; Law et al., 2012). 2008, 2011; Mukherjee and Gupta, 2011). It has been demonstrated that wetlands are a less energy intensive option than conventional Most developed countries rely on centralized aerobic / anaerobic waste- wastewater treatment systems despite differences in costs across tech- water treatment plants to handle their municipal wastewater. In devel- nologies and socio-economic contexts (Gao et al., 2012), but such sys-

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tems are facing challenges in urban areas from demand for land for 10.14.4 Summary results on costs and potentials other economic activities (Mukherjee, 1999). Figure 10.19 and Figure 10.20 present the potentials and costs of It has been highlighted that wastewater treatment with anaerobic selected mitigation options to reduce the GHG emissions of the two sludge digestion and methane recovery and use for energy purposes waste sectors that represent 90 % of waste related emissions: solid reduces methane emissions (Bani Shahabadi et al., 2009; Foley et al., waste disposal (0.67 GtCO eq) and domestic wastewater 2 10 2010; Massé et al., 2011; Fine and Hadas, 2012; Abbasi et al., 2012; Liu (0.77 GtCO2eq) emissions (JRC / PBL, 2013). For solid waste, potentials

et al., 2012b; Wang et al., 2012b). Anaerobic digestion also provides an are presented in tCO2eq / t solid waste and for wastewater and in

efficient means to reduce pollutant loads when high-strength organic tCO2eq / t BOD5 as % compared to current global average. wastewater (food waste, brewery, animal manure) have to be treated (Shin et al., 2011), although adequate regulatory policy incentives are Six mitigation options for solid waste and three mitigation options for needed for widespread implementation in developed and developing wastewater are assessed and presented in the figures. The reference countries (Massé et al., 2011). case and the basis for mitigation potentials were derived from IPCC 2006 guidelines. Abatement costs and potentials are based on EPA Advanced treatment technologies such as membrane filtration, ozona- (2006b; 2013). tion, aeration efficiency, bacteria mix, and engineered nanomaterials (Xu et al., 2011b; Brame et al., 2011) may enhance GHG emissions The actual costs and potentials of the abatement options vary widely reduction in wastewater treatment, and some such technologies, for across regions and design of a treatment methodology. Given that example membranes, have increased the competitiveness and decen- technology options to reduce emissions from industrial and municipal tralization (Fane, 2007; Libralato et al., 2012). waste are the same, it is not further distinguished in the approach. Furthermore, the potential of reductions from emissions from land- The existence of a shared location and infrastructure can also facilitate fills are directly related to climatic conditions as well as to the age the identification and implementation of more synergy opportunities and amount of landfill, both of which are not included in the chosen to reduce industrial water provision and wastewater treatment, there- approach. Emission factors are global annual averages (derived from fore abating GHG emissions from industry. The concept of eco-indus- IPCC 2006 guideline aggregated regional averages). The actual emis- trial parks is discussed in Section 10.5. sion factor differs between types of waste, climatic regions, and age of

Landﬁll at MSW Disposal Site

Composting

Anaerobic Digestion

Biocover

In-Situ Aeration

CH4 Flaring

CH4 Capture Plus Heat/Electricity Generation

1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 <0 0-20 20-50 50-150 >150 Indicative Cost of Conserved Carbon[USD /tCO eq] Emission Intensity [tCO2eq/t MSW] 2010 2

Figure 10.19 | Indicative CO2eq emission intensities and levelized cost of conserved carbon of municipal solid waste disposal practices / technologies (for data and methodology, see Annex III).

Untreated System: Stagnant Sewer (Open and Warm)

Aerobic Wastewater Plant (WWTP)

Centralised Wastewater Collection and WWTP

Anaerobic Biomass Digester with

CH4 Collection

10 8 6 4 2 0 <0 0-20 20-50 50-150 >150 Indicative Cost of Conserved Carbon[USD /tCO eq] Emission Intensity [tCO2eq/t BOD5] 2010 2

Figure 10.20 | Indicative CO2eq emission intensities and levelized cost of conserved carbon of different wastewater treatments (for underlying data and methodology, see Annex III).

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the landfill, explaining the wide range for each technology. The mitiga- radation process as it assumes that all potential methane is released tion potential for waste is derived by comparing the emission range the year the solid waste is disposed. from a reference technology (e. g., a landfill) with the emission range for a chosen technology. The GHG coverage for solid waste is focused The unit tonne biological oxygen demand (t BOD) stands for the on methane, which is the most significant emission from landfilling; organic content of wastewater (‘loading’) and represents the oxy-

other GHG gases such as N2O only play a minor role in the landfill gen consumed by wastewater during decomposition. The average for 10 solid waste sector and are neglected in this study (except for compost- domestic wastewater is in a range of 110 – 400 mg / l and is directly ing). connected to climate conditions. Costs and potentials are global averages, but based on region-specific information. Options that are more In the case of landfills, the top five emitting countries account for often used in developing countries are not considered since data avail- 27 % of the total abatement potential in the sector (United States 2 %, ability is limited. However, options like septic tanks, open sewers, and China 6 %, Mexico 9 %, Malaysia 3 %, and Russia 2 %). The distribu- lagoons are low cost options with an impact of reducing GHG emission tion of the remaining potential per region is: Africa 16 %, Central and compared to untreated wastewater that is stored in a stagnant sewer South America 9 %, Middle East 9 %, Europe 19 %, Eurasia 2 %, Asia under open and warm conditions. 15 %, and North America 4 % (EPA, 2013). The methane correction factor applied is based on the IPCC guidelines In the case of wastewater, 58 % of the abatement potential is concen- and gives an indication of the amount of methane that is released by

trated in the top five emitting countries (United States 7 %, Indonesia applying the technology; furthermore emissions from N2O have not 9 %, Mexico 10 %, Nigeria 10 %, and China 23 %). The distribution of been included as they play an insignificant role in domestic wastewa- the remaining potential per region is: Africa 5 %, Central and South ter. Except in countries with advanced centralized wastewater treat- America 5 %, Middle East 14 %, Europe 5 %, Eurasia 4 %, and Asia ment plants with nitrification and denitrification steps (IPCC, 2006), 10 % (EPA, 2013). establishing a structured collection system for wastewater will always have an impact on GHG emissions in the waste sector. The United States EPA has produced two studies with cost estimates of abatement in the solid waste sector (EPA, 2006b, 2013) which found a Cost estimates of abatement in the domestic wastewater are provided large range for options to reduce landfill (e. g., incineration, anaerobic in EPA (2006b; 2013), which find a large range for the options of 0 to

digestion, and composting) of up to 590 USD2010 / tCO2eq if the technol- 530 USD2010 / tCO2eq with almost no variation across options. The actual ogy is only implemented for the sake of GHG emission reduction. How- costs of the abatement options shown vary widely between individ- ever, the studies highlight that there are significant opportunities for ual regions and from the design set up of a treatment methodology.

CH4 reductions in the landfill sector at carbon prices below 20 USD2010. Especially for wastewater treatment, the cost ranges largely depend on

Improving landfill practices mainly by flaring and 4CH utilization are national circumstances like climate conditions (chemical process will low cost options, as both generate costs in the lower range (0 — 50 be accelerated under warm conditions), economic development, and

USD2010 / tCO2eq). cultural aspects. The data availability for domestic wastewater options, especially on costs, is very low and would result in large ranges, which The costs of the abatement options shown vary widely between indi- imply large uncertainties for each of the option. Mitigation potentials vidual regions and from plant to plant. The cost estimates should, for for landfills (in terms of % of potential above emissions for 2030) is that reason, be regarded as indicative only and depend on a number of double compared with wastewater (EPA, 2013). The mitigation poten- factors including capital stock turnover, relative energy costs, regional tial for wastewater tends to concentrate in the higher costs options climate conditions, waste fee structures, etc. Furthermore, the method due to the significant costs of constructing public wastewater collec- does not reflect the time variation in solid waste disposal and the deg- tion systems and centralized treatment facilities.

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