Ms Htay Htay Than Assistant Director Hydrological Division Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology
16 December 2009 Myanmar Daily Water Level Graph of 2008 Flood at Shwegyin of Shwegyin River
1000 0
900 100
800 200
300 700 Dan ger Level 700 cm 400
600 Rainfall (mm) water level (cm)water level 500 500 600
400 700 1-Aug 4-Aug 7-Aug 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug 19-Aug 22-Aug 25-Aug 28-Aug 31-Aug Days Daily water level forecast
Empirical model (based on single and multiple regression analysis)
Seasonal water level forecast (Dekad, Monthly, Pre, Peak, late Monson FC) Based on flood characteristic occurred in Analogue years chosen by seasonal weather forecast section Based on seasonal weather forecast Based on comparison of current flow with the last (10) years individual hydrographs Based on the last (10) years average flow Based on Flood frequency analysis
Track of the Cyclonic Storm (BIJLI)
Land depression18/18z 17/09z 17/00z 16/09z 16/09z 15/09z 15/03z 14/12z LPA 13/09z Track of the Cyclonic Storm (AILA) No. Date Station Amount of Rainfall mm inches 1. 24-5-09 Yangon (Kba-aye) 55 2.17 2. 24-5-09 Yangon (C.Y) 64 2.52 3. 25-5-09 Mawleik 75 2.95 4. 25-5-09 Pharpon 66 2.60 .5 26-5-09 Maungdaw 165 6.50 6. 26-5-09 Pathein 86 3.39 7. 27-5-09 Thandwe 72 2.83 8. 27-5-09 Homalin 64 2.52 9. 27-5-09 Bago 63 2.48 10 27-5-09 Ye 55 2.17 11. 27-5-09 Pharpon 52 2.05
12. 27-5-09 Hmawbi 51 2.01 Rainfall Distribution in 2009 Flood Peaks and Durations above Danger Levels in 2009
Danger Flood Above/ Date of Flood Start and End River/ Station Level Peak Below D.L Occurrence Duration Date (cm) (cm) (cm)
Ayeyarwady Myitkyina 1200 918 3-7-09 Below D.L -282
Bhamo 1150 984 7-7-09 Below D.L -166
Katha 1040 953 10-7-09 Below D.L -87
Mandalay 1260 1150 30-8-09 Below D.L -110
Sagaing 1150 1056 30-8-09 Below D.L -94
NyaungU 2120 2056 30-8-09 Below D.L -64
Chauk 1450 1326 1-9-09 Below D.L -135
Minbu 1700 1584 1-9-09 Below D.L -129
Magway 1700 1580 1-9-09 Below D.L -132
Aunglan 2550 2367 1-9-09 Below D.L -200
Pyay 2900 2746 1-9-09 Below D.L -173 Hinthada 1342 1344 3-9-09 1 Day 20 Hrs 3-9-09 ---5-9-09 +2 Flood Peaks and Durations above Danger Levels in 2009 Danger Flood Date of Above/ River/Station Level Peak Flood Duration Start and End Date Occurrence Below D.L (cm) (cm) Chindwin Hkamti 1360 1236 22-8-09 Below D.L -124 Homalin 2900 2906 24-8-09 1 Day 11 Hrs 24-8-09---25-8-09 +6 Mawlaik 1230 1217 27-8-09 Below D.L -13 Kalewa 1550 1529 27-8-09 Below D.L -21 Monywa 1000 949 28-8-09 Below D.L -51 Sittoung Toungoo 600 684 9-8-09 2 Days 19 Hrs 8-8-09---11-8-09 +84 635 18-8-09 3 Days 4 Hrs 18-8-09---21-8-09 (8th Highest) (1966-2009) +35 Madauk 1070 1224 12-8-09 25 Days 3 Hrs 31-7-09---25-8-09 +154 (4th Highest) (1966-2009) Thanlwin Hpa-an 750 750 1-8-09 13 hrs 1-8-98 - 2-8-09 0 Shwegyin Shwegyin 700 757 31-7-09 4 Days 10 Hrs 31-7-09---4-8-09 +57 777 12-8-09 9 Days 2 Hrs 7-8-09---16-8-09 +77 (13th Highest) (1965-2009) Dokehtawady Myitnge 870 857 28-8-09 Below D.L -13 Bago Bago 910 880 10-8-09 Below D.L -30 Homalin (Chindwin River) 6 cm above Danger Level Toungoo(Sittoung River) 84 cm, 35 cm above Danger Level
Madauk(Sittoung River) Shwegyin (Shwegyin 154 cm above Danger Level River) 57 cm, 77 cm above Danger Level Hinthada (Ayeyarwaddy River) Hpa-an (Thanlwin River) 2 cm above Danger Level 0 cm above Danger Level Shwegyin township in Bago division is geographically located between 17° 44' to 18° 14' N and 96° 44' to 97° 14' E. It stretches for about 42 miles from North to South and 19 miles from east to west Outlet of the Shwegyin catchment is located at 17° 55' N and 96° 52' E and Shwegyin town is situated on the mouth of shwegyin river Shwegyin catchment is about (1697.9) km2 Topography of the basin is varying from 10 m to 1827 m above m.s.l the high mountains are formed in northern and eastern part with plain areas in western and southern part of the basin. There are 5 rivers which flowing through the township including shwegyin rivers. There are one Met and Hydro station. Flood Peak Date of Flood Duration Below/ above Year Start & End Date (cm) occurance above T.D level danger level (cm) 1966 645 11. 8.66 Below D.L -55 1967 810 9. 8.67 2 Days12 Hrs 7. 8.67 - 10. 8.67 +110 1968 771 15. 8.68 2 Days 6 Hrs 14. 8.68 - 16. 8.68 +71 1969 764 8. 8.69 1 Days 0 Hrs 7. 8.69 - 8. 8.69 +64 718 1. 8.69 0 Days 6 Hrs 1. 8.69 - 1. 8.69 +18 716 11. 8.69 0 Days12 Hrs 11. 8.69 - 11. 8.69 +16 1970 657 12. 9.70 Below D.L -43 1971 749 20. 7.71 0 Days18 Hrs 19. 7.71 - 20. 7.71 +49 1972 733 25. 8.72 1 Days 0 Hrs 25. 8.72 - 26. 8.72 +33 1973 705 20.8.73 0 Days 6 Hrs 20.8.73 - 20.8.73 +5 1974 782 16. 8.74 2 Days 6 Hrs 16. 8.74 - 18. 8.74 +82 1975 692 26. 8.75 Below D.L -8 1976 660 26. 7.76 Below D.L -40 1977 664 27. 7.77 Below D.L -36 1978 696 7. 8.78 Below D.L -4 1979 712 19. 8.79 1 Days 6 Hrs 18. 8.79 - 19. 8.79 +12 1980 682 25. 8.80 Below D.L -18 1981 667 13. 8.81 Below D.L -33 1982 693 31. 7.82 Below D.L -7 1983 576 27. 8.83 Below D.L -124 1984 690 20. 6.84 Below D.L -10 1985 700 30. 6.85 Below D.L 0 1986 627 16. 8.86 Below D.L -73 1987 658 26. 8.87 Below D.L -42 1988 645 2. 8.88 Below D.L -55 1989 612 26. 9.89 Below D.L -82 Flood Peak Date of Flood Duration above Below/above danger Year Start & End Date (cm) occurance T.D level level (cm 1990 789 30. 7.90 2 Days18 Hrs 30. 7.90 - 2. 8.90 +89 1991 750 13. 8.91 1 Days 0 Hrs 13. 8.91 - 14. 8.91 +50 724 1. 8.91 0 Days12 Hrs 1. 8.91 - 1. 8.91 +24 729 23. 8.91 0 Days12 Hrs 23. 8.91 - 23. 0.91 +29 1992 772 19. 8.92 2 Days18 Hrs 18. 8.92 - 21. 8.92 +72 1993 781 23. 8.93 4 Days 0 Hrs 21. 8.93 - 25. 8.93 +81 1994 812 5. 8.94 2 Days 6 Hrs 5. 8.94 - 7. 8.94 +112 744 29. 7.94 3 Days 6 Hrs 28. 7.94 - 31. 7.94 +44 773 2. 8.94 1 Days18 Hrs 1. 8.94 - 3. 8.94 +73 1995 661 2. 9.95 Below D.L +61 1996 827 26. 7.96 5 Days12 Hrs 24. 7.96 - 29. 7.96 +127 727 2. 8.96 0 Days 6 Hrs 2. 8.96 - 2. 8.96 +27 810 4. 8.96 2 Days 0 Hrs 4. 8.96 - 6. 8.96 +110 733 24. 8.96 0 Days 6 Hrs 24. 8.96 - 24. 8.96 +33 1997 927 3. 8.97 4 Days12 Hrs 1. 8.97 - 6. 8.97 +227 First(max) 737 12. 7.97 0 Days12 Hrs 12. 7.97 - 12. 7.97 +37 1998 602 10. 9.98 Below D.L -98 1999 902 7. 8.99 11 Days12 Hrs 5. 8.99 - 16. 8.99 +202 Second(max) 724 24. 6.99 0 Days 6 Hrs 24. 6.99 - 24. 6.99 +24 2000 791 20. 7.00 2 Days12 Hrs 19. 7.00 - 21. 7.00 +91 2001 790 21. 7.01 6 Days 6 Hrs 21. 7.01 - 27. 7.01 +90 728 12. 8.01 0 Days12 Hrs 12. 8.01 - 12. 8.01 +28 2002 752 17. 8.02 2 Days12 Hrs 17. 8.02 - 19. 8.02 +52 710 21. 8.02 0 Days 6 Hrs 21. 8.02 - 21. 8.02 +10 2003 688 29. 6.03 Below D.L -12 2004 772 15. 8.04 7 Days12 Hrs 13. 8.04 - 20. 8.04 +72 703 11. 9.04 6 Hrs 11. 9.04 - 11. 9.04 +3 2005 773 6. 8.05 3 Days 6 Hrs 6. 8.05 - 9. 8.05 +73 2006 787 9.7.06 5 Days12 Hrs +87 2007 705 6.7.07 - 6.7.07-6.7.07 +5 725 17.8.07 10 Hrs 16.8.07-17.8.07 +25 2008 828 8.8.08 7 Days 1 Hrs 7.8.08-14.8.08 +128 Third(max) 2009 757 31.7.09 4 Days 10 Hrs 31.7.09-4.8.09 +57 777 12.8.2009 9 Days 2 Hrs 7.8.09-16.8.09 +77 Flood Peak of Shwegyin Station at Shwegyin River (1966-2009) 1000 nd 1st Max Flood 927 cm 2 Max Flood 902 cm 900 3rd Max Flood 828 cm
800
700 Record -1965-2009(45 years)
600 No Flood – 19 years Danger level 700 cm 1 m above Danger Level – 5 Years 500 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2008
400 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Comparison between the Annual Rainfall and Monsoon Rainfall 5000 Max Flood 4500 Annual Rainfall 4000 June to Sept 3500
3000
2500
2000
Rainfall (mm) 1500
1000 500 0 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Year Flood Duration of Shwegyin Station at Shwegyin River
14
12 4 times in one year (1996)
10 3 times in one year (1969,1991, 1994) 8
6 days
4
2
0 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
First Time Second Time Third Time Fourth Time Noteworthy amount of Rainfall observed at Bago district during the first week of August 1997 (inches)
Flood Induced Storm Rainfall Distribution at Shwegyin No Rainfall Town- from (1-8-97 in the Year 1997 Aug station ship to 5-8-97) Rainfall (in) 1200 0
1100 1. Bago Bago 18.47 200 1000 400 900 2. Daik Oo Minbu 28.35 Danger Level 700 cm 800 600
700 800 3. Nyaung Lay Nyaung 23.05 600 Rainfall (mm) Pin Lay Pin water level(cm) 1000 500 4. Shwegyin Shwegyin 36.98 400 1200 1-Aug 4-Aug 7-Aug 5. Waw Waw 26.72 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug 19-Aug 22-Aug 25-Aug 28-Aug 31-Aug Days
Caused by Heavy Monsoon Rain Daily Water Level Graph of 2008 Flood at Shwegyin of Shwegyin River
1000 0
900 100
800 200
300 700 Danger Level 700 cm 400
600 Rainfall (mm) water level (cm) 500 500 600
400 700 1-Aug 4-Aug 7-Aug 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug 19-Aug 22-Aug 25-Aug 28-Aug 31-Aug Day s
Date Rainfall (mm) Water Level Rise (ft) 7 Aug 2008 42 2 ft 8 Aug 2008 100 3 ft 9 Aug 2008 151 4 ft (within 18 hr) Shwegyin Flood at July and August, 2009 1200 0 1100 50 100 1000 150 900 200 800 250 (mm) 300 water level (cm) water 700 Rainfall 350 600 400 Danger Level (700) cm 500 450 400 500 g 20-Jul 22-Jul 24-Jul 26-Jul 28-Jul 30-Jul 1-Au 3-Aug 5-Aug 7-Aug 9-Aug 11-Aug 13-Aug 15-Aug 17-Aug 19-Aug
Station Duration Rainfall (mm)
28-7-09 Shwegyin To 460 1-8-09 7-8-09 112 Shwegyin 8-8-09 157 To install two telemetering stations and one receiving station in Shwegyin river basin, in order to get early warning system To develop forecasting technique for flash flood Requirement:- 9 Advance technology for satellite rainfall estimation 9 Advance technology transfer for flash flood forecasting To display the hydrological behavior of watersheds after estimation the geomorphologic parameters from digital elevation model To develop the design flood and design rainfall for different return periods and probable maximum precipitation for duration of one to three days To produce the unit hydrograph, which is of great use in the development of flood hydrograph for extreme rainfall magnitudes for use in design of hydraulic structure and development of flood forecasting and warning systems based on rainfall To develop accurate flood risk maps based on flows the hydrologic model using all available data including GIS data sources the geomorphological parameters was determined by using River Tools Software The results calculated using GIS Technology are as follow.
9 Outlet location 17.92° N 96.87° E 9 Outlet elevation 10 m 9 Basin area 1697.9 km2 9 Basin relief 1.87 km 9 Strahler order 9 9 Longest channel length 81.9 km 9 Total channel length 21890.1 km 9 Drainage density 12.89 km-1
Digital Elevation Model of Shwegyin Catchment Total Longest Basin Drainage River Channel Channel Area Relief Density Order length (km2) (km) (km) (km) (Km-1)
1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.053 12.994 2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.128 13.014 3 3.9 1.1 0.3 0.234 13.005 4 18.1 2.3 1.4 0.385 12.963 5 81.7 5.1 6.3 0.583 12.942 6 319.1 10.5 24.6 0.883 12.963 7 1676.9 25.2 129.6 1.265 12.956 8 6239.8 58.6 483.1 1.691 12.930 9 21890.1 81.9 1697.9 1.870 12.892 1 day Max RF(mm)/ 2 day Max RF(mm)/ 3 day Max RF(mm)/ Year Date Date Date 1967 189 14-Sep 189 13-14 Sep 249 6-8- Aug 1968 111 10-Jul 160 14-15 Aug 210 13-15 Aug 1969 127 9-Jun 179 17-18 Jul 242 17-19 Jul 1970 98 15-Jun 141 24-25 Aug 177 11-13 Jul 1971 154 6-Aug 206 6-7 Aug 226 6-8- ug 1972 236 1-Sep 285 31 Aug-1 Sep 299 31 Aug-2Sep 1973 106 20-Aug 153 19-20 Aug 217 20-22 Aug 1974 136 16-Jun 237 17-18 Aug 329 16-18 Aug 1975 132 26-Aug 171 25-26 Aug 204 23-26 Aug 1976 151 2-Jul 254 2-3 Jul 302 2-4 Jul 1977 80 31-Aug 125 30-31 Aug 150 29-31 Aug 1978 162 9-Jul 232 8-9 Jul 279 8-10 Jul 1979 156 6-Aug 197 5-6 Aug 234 6-8 Aug 1980 176 8-Sep 209 24-25 May 228 23-25 May 1981 116 6-Jul 178 6-7 Jul 215 6-8 Jul 1982 141 15-Aug 184 10-11 Aug 221 10-12 Aug 1983 144 1-Aug 190 4-5 Oct 277 30 Jul-1 Aug 1984 150 20-Jun 224 19-20 Jun 274 19-21 Jun 1985 174 18-Jun 215 28-29 Aug 255 16-18 Jun 1986 143 16-Aug 272 15-16 Aug 326 14-16 Aug 1987 158 25-Aug 220 24-25 Aug 278 23-25 Aug 1 day Max RF(mm)/ 2 day Max RF(mm)/ 3 day Max RF(mm)/ Year Date Date Date 1988 128 2-Aug 196 1-2- ug 261 31 Jul-2 Aug 1989 89 22-Aug 125 12-13 Jun 160 11-13 Jun 1990 181 1-Aug 248 31 Jul-1 Aug 289 31 Jul -2 Aug 1991 157 1-Aug 197 31 Jul-1 Aug 262 30 Jul-1 Aug 1992 125 15-Aug 184 15-16 Aug 231 15-17 Aug 1993 124 12-Aug 168 13-14 Jul 200 13-15 Jul 1994 186 5-Aug 210 4-5- ug 242 3-5 Aug 1995 95 30-Jul 119 30-31Jul 179 30 Jul-1 Aug 1996 156 24-Jul 262 24-25 Jul 375 24-26 Jul 1997 424 2-Aug 660 2-3 Aug 800 1-3 Aug 1998 132 3-Jul 165 3-4- ul 202 3-5 Jul 1999 215 7-Jul 315 6-7 Jul 441 5-7 Jul 2000 141 17-Jul 185 17-18- Jul 312 17-19 Jul 2001 104 12-Aug 140 14-15 Jun 173 13-15 Jun 2002 176 17-Sep 209 18-19 Sep 245 18- 20 Sep 2003 171 25-Aug 176 26-27 Aug 215 28-30 Jun 2004 115 8-Aug 201 20-21 Jun 239 20-22 Jun 2005 137 27-Jul 159 27-28 Jul 233 28-30 Jul 2006 174 1-Sep 216 31 Aug-1 Sep 265 7-9 Jul 2007 146 10-Aug 171 10-11 Aug 238 4-6 Jul 2008 151 9-Aug 251 8-9 Aug 327 8-10 Aug 2009 152 8 Aug 264 7-8 Aug 335 6-8 Aug Return 1 day Max 2 day Max 3 day Max Periods RF (mm) RF (mm) RF (mm) 10 233 343 431 20 268 398 499 50 313 470 587 100 346 524 653 200 380 577 719 500 424 648 807 Return Period Flood (cm) 10 842 20 891 50 955 100 1003 200 1050 500 1113 Purchased the GIS softwares (River tools and TNTmips Image Processing Software) Made the training to develop the GIS application
Training for satellite rainfall estimation for stream flow modeling Training for Advance and effective flood forecasting model for river forecast and GIS based/ Advanced rainfall runoff simulation modeling techniques for flash flood forecast Digital Elevation Model with high resolution in order to get the more accurate geomorphologic parameters and flood risk map