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16 December 2009 Myanmar Daily Water Level Graph of 2008 Flood at Shwegyin of Shwegyin River

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16 December 2009 Myanmar Daily Water Level Graph of 2008 Flood at Shwegyin of Shwegyin River Ms Htay Htay Than Assistant Director Hydrological Division Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology 16 December 2009 Myanmar Daily Water Level Graph of 2008 Flood at Shwegyin of Shwegyin River 1000 0 900 100 200 800 300 700 Danger Level 700 cm 400 600 Rainfall (mm) water level (cm)water level 500 500 600 400 700 1-Aug 4-Aug 7-Aug 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug 19-Aug 22-Aug 25-Aug 28-Aug 31-Aug Days Daily water level forecast Empirical model (based on single and multiple regression analysis) Seasonal water level forecast (Dekad, Monthly, Pre, Peak, late Monson FC) Based on flood characteristic occurred in Analogue years chosen by seasonal weather forecast section Based on seasonal weather forecast Based on comparison of current flow with the last (10) years individual hydrographs Based on the last (10) years average flow Based on Flood frequency analysis Track of the Cyclonic Storm (BIJLI) Land depression18/18z 17/09z 17/00z 16/09z 16/09z 15/09z 15/03z 14/12z LPA 13/09z Track of the Cyclonic Storm (AILA) No. Date Station Amount of Rainfall mm inches 1. 24-5-09 Yangon (Kba-aye) 55 2.17 2. 24-5-09 Yangon (C.Y) 64 2.52 3. 25-5-09 Mawleik 75 2.95 4. 25-5-09 Pharpon 66 2.60 .5 26-5-09 Maungdaw 165 6.50 6. 26-5-09 Pathein 86 3.39 7. 27-5-09 Thandwe 72 2.83 8. 27-5-09 Homalin 64 2.52 9. 27-5-09 Bago 63 2.48 10 27-5-09 Ye 55 2.17 11. 27-5-09 Pharpon 52 2.05 12. 27-5-09 Hmawbi 51 2.01 Rainfall Distribution in 2009 Flood Peaks and Durations above Danger Levels in 2009 Danger Flood Above/ Date of Flood Start and End River/ Station Level Peak Below D.L Occurrence Duration Date (cm) (cm) (cm) Ayeyarwady Myitkyina 1200 918 3-7-09 Below D.L -282 Bhamo 1150 984 7-7-09 Below D.L -166 Katha 1040 953 10-7-09 Below D.L -87 Mandalay 1260 1150 30-8-09 Below D.L -110 Sagaing 1150 1056 30-8-09 Below D.L -94 NyaungU 2120 2056 30-8-09 Below D.L -64 Chauk 1450 1326 1-9-09 Below D.L -135 Minbu 1700 1584 1-9-09 Below D.L -129 Magway 1700 1580 1-9-09 Below D.L -132 Aunglan 2550 2367 1-9-09 Below D.L -200 Pyay 2900 2746 1-9-09 Below D.L -173 Hinthada 1342 1344 3-9-09 1 Day 20 Hrs 3-9-09 ---5-9-09 +2 Flood Peaks and Durations above Danger Levels in 2009 Danger Flood Date of Above/ River/Station Level Peak Flood Duration Start and End Date Occurrence Below D.L (cm) (cm) Chindwin Hkamti 1360 1236 22-8-09 Below D.L -124 Homalin 2900 2906 24-8-09 1 Day 11 Hrs 24-8-09---25-8-09 +6 Mawlaik 1230 1217 27-8-09 Below D.L -13 Kalewa 1550 1529 27-8-09 Below D.L -21 Monywa 1000 949 28-8-09 Below D.L -51 Sittoung Toungoo 600 684 9-8-09 2 Days 19 Hrs 8-8-09---11-8-09 +84 635 18-8-09 3 Days 4 Hrs 18-8-09---21-8-09 (8th Highest) (1966-2009) +35 Madauk 1070 1224 12-8-09 25 Days 3 Hrs 31-7-09---25-8-09 +154 (4th Highest) (1966-2009) Thanlwin Hpa-an 750 750 1-8-09 13 hrs 1-8-98 - 2-8-09 0 Shwegyin Shwegyin 700 757 31-7-09 4 Days 10 Hrs 31-7-09---4-8-09 +57 777 12-8-09 9 Days 2 Hrs 7-8-09---16-8-09 +77 (13th Highest) (1965-2009) Dokehtawady Myitnge 870 857 28-8-09 Below D.L -13 Bago Bago 910 880 10-8-09 Below D.L -30 Homalin (Chindwin River) 6 cm above Danger Level Toungoo(Sittoung River) 84 cm, 35 cm above Danger Level Madauk(Sittoung River) Shwegyin (Shwegyin 154 cm above Danger Level River) 57 cm, 77 cm above Danger Level Hinthada (Ayeyarwaddy River) Hpa-an (Thanlwin River) 2 cm above Danger Level 0 cm above Danger Level Shwegyin township in Bago division is geographically located between 17° 44' to 18° 14' N and 96° 44' to 97° 14' E. It stretches for about 42 miles from North to South and 19 miles from east to west Outlet of the Shwegyin catchment is located at 17° 55' N and 96° 52' E and Shwegyin town is situated on the mouth of shwegyin river Shwegyin catchment is about (1697.9) km2 Topography of the basin is varying from 10 m to 1827 m above m.s.l the high mountains are formed in northern and eastern part with plain areas in western and southern part of the basin. There are 5 rivers which flowing through the township including shwegyin rivers. There are one Met and Hydro station. Flood Peak Date of Flood Duration Below/ above Year Start & End Date (cm) occurance above T.D level danger level (cm) 1966 645 11. 8.66 Below D.L -55 1967 810 9. 8.67 2 Days12 Hrs 7. 8.67 - 10. 8.67 +110 1968 771 15. 8.68 2 Days 6 Hrs 14. 8.68 - 16. 8.68 +71 1969 764 8. 8.69 1 Days 0 Hrs 7. 8.69 - 8. 8.69 +64 718 1. 8.69 0 Days 6 Hrs 1. 8.69 - 1. 8.69 +18 716 11. 8.69 0 Days12 Hrs 11. 8.69 - 11. 8.69 +16 1970 657 12. 9.70 Below D.L -43 1971 749 20. 7.71 0 Days18 Hrs 19. 7.71 - 20. 7.71 +49 1972 733 25. 8.72 1 Days 0 Hrs 25. 8.72 - 26. 8.72 +33 1973 705 20.8.73 0 Days 6 Hrs 20.8.73 - 20.8.73 +5 1974 782 16. 8.74 2 Days 6 Hrs 16. 8.74 - 18. 8.74 +82 1975 692 26. 8.75 Below D.L -8 1976 660 26. 7.76 Below D.L -40 1977 664 27. 7.77 Below D.L -36 1978 696 7. 8.78 Below D.L -4 1979 712 19. 8.79 1 Days 6 Hrs 18. 8.79 - 19. 8.79 +12 1980 682 25. 8.80 Below D.L -18 1981 667 13. 8.81 Below D.L -33 1982 693 31. 7.82 Below D.L -7 1983 576 27. 8.83 Below D.L -124 1984 690 20. 6.84 Below D.L -10 1985 700 30. 6.85 Below D.L 0 1986 627 16. 8.86 Below D.L -73 1987 658 26. 8.87 Below D.L -42 1988 645 2. 8.88 Below D.L -55 1989 612 26. 9.89 Below D.L -82 Flood Peak Date of Flood Duration above Below/above danger Year Start & End Date (cm) occurance T.D level level (cm 1990 789 30. 7.90 2 Days18 Hrs 30. 7.90 - 2. 8.90 +89 1991 750 13. 8.91 1 Days 0 Hrs 13. 8.91 - 14. 8.91 +50 724 1. 8.91 0 Days12 Hrs 1. 8.91 - 1. 8.91 +24 729 23. 8.91 0 Days12 Hrs 23. 8.91 - 23. 0.91 +29 1992 772 19. 8.92 2 Days18 Hrs 18. 8.92 - 21. 8.92 +72 1993 781 23. 8.93 4 Days 0 Hrs 21. 8.93 - 25. 8.93 +81 1994 812 5. 8.94 2 Days 6 Hrs 5. 8.94 - 7. 8.94 +112 744 29. 7.94 3 Days 6 Hrs 28. 7.94 - 31. 7.94 +44 773 2. 8.94 1 Days18 Hrs 1. 8.94 - 3. 8.94 +73 1995 661 2. 9.95 Below D.L +61 1996 827 26. 7.96 5 Days12 Hrs 24. 7.96 - 29. 7.96 +127 727 2. 8.96 0 Days 6 Hrs 2. 8.96 - 2. 8.96 +27 810 4. 8.96 2 Days 0 Hrs 4. 8.96 - 6. 8.96 +110 733 24. 8.96 0 Days 6 Hrs 24. 8.96 - 24. 8.96 +33 1997 927 3. 8.97 4 Days12 Hrs 1. 8.97 - 6. 8.97 +227 First(max) 737 12. 7.97 0 Days12 Hrs 12. 7.97 - 12. 7.97 +37 1998 602 10. 9.98 Below D.L -98 1999 902 7. 8.99 11 Days12 Hrs 5. 8.99 - 16. 8.99 +202 Second(max) 724 24. 6.99 0 Days 6 Hrs 24. 6.99 - 24. 6.99 +24 2000 791 20. 7.00 2 Days12 Hrs 19. 7.00 - 21. 7.00 +91 2001 790 21. 7.01 6 Days 6 Hrs 21. 7.01 - 27. 7.01 +90 728 12. 8.01 0 Days12 Hrs 12. 8.01 - 12. 8.01 +28 2002 752 17. 8.02 2 Days12 Hrs 17. 8.02 - 19. 8.02 +52 710 21. 8.02 0 Days 6 Hrs 21. 8.02 - 21. 8.02 +10 2003 688 29. 6.03 Below D.L -12 2004 772 15. 8.04 7 Days12 Hrs 13. 8.04 - 20. 8.04 +72 703 11. 9.04 6 Hrs 11. 9.04 - 11. 9.04 +3 2005 773 6. 8.05 3 Days 6 Hrs 6. 8.05 - 9. 8.05 +73 2006 787 9.7.06 5 Days12 Hrs +87 2007 705 6.7.07 - 6.7.07-6.7.07 +5 725 17.8.07 10 Hrs 16.8.07-17.8.07 +25 2008 828 8.8.08 7 Days 1 Hrs 7.8.08-14.8.08 +128 Third(max) 2009 757 31.7.09 4 Days 10 Hrs 31.7.09-4.8.09 +57 777 12.8.2009 9 Days 2 Hrs 7.8.09-16.8.09 +77 Flood Peak of Shwegyin Station at Shwegyin River (1966-2009) 1000 nd 1st Max Flood 927 cm 2 Max Flood 902 cm 900 3rd Max Flood 828 cm 800 700 Record -1965-2009(45 years) 600 No Flood – 19 years Danger level 700 cm 1 m above Danger Level – 5 Years 500 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2008 400 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Comparison between the Annual Rainfall and Monsoon Rainfall Max Flood 5000 Annual Rainfall 4500 June to Sept 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Rainfall (mm) 1500 1000 500 0 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Year days 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 3 times in one year(1969,1991,1994) 1972 Flood Duration of Shwegyin Station at Shwegyin River First Time 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Second Time 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 (1996) 4 timesinoneyear 1987 1988 Third Time 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Fourth Time 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Noteworthy amount of Rainfall observed at Bago district during the first week of August 1997 (inches) Flood Induced Storm Rainfall Distribution at Shwegyin No Rainfall Town- from (1-8-97 in the Year 1997 Aug station ship to 5-8-97) Rainfall (in) 1200 0 1100 1.
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