Factors Behind the Fall of Mosul to ISIL (Daesh) in 2014
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The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq
The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq Julie Ahn—Maeve Campbell—Pete Knoetgen Client: Office of Iraq Affairs, U.S. Department of State Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Advisor: Meghan O’Sullivan Policy Analysis Exercise Seminar Leader: Matthew Bunn May 7, 2018 This Policy Analysis Exercise reflects the views of the authors and should not be viewed as representing the views of the US Government, nor those of Harvard University or any of its faculty. Acknowledgements We would like to express our gratitude to the many people who helped us throughout the development, research, and drafting of this report. Our field work in Iraq would not have been possible without the help of Sherzad Khidhir. His willingness to connect us with in-country stakeholders significantly contributed to the breadth of our interviews. Those interviews were made possible by our fantastic translators, Lezan, Ehsan, and Younis, who ensured that we could capture critical information and the nuance of discussions. We also greatly appreciated the willingness of U.S. State Department officials, the soldiers of Operation Inherent Resolve, and our many other interview participants to provide us with their time and insights. Thanks to their assistance, we were able to gain a better grasp of this immensely complex topic. Throughout our research, we benefitted from consultations with numerous Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) faculty, as well as with individuals from the larger Harvard community. We would especially like to thank Harvard Business School Professor Kristin Fabbe and Razzaq al-Saiedi from the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative who both provided critical support to our project. -
The Yazidis Perceptions of Reconciliation and Conflict
The Yazidis Perceptions of Reconciliation and Conflict Dave van Zoonen Khogir Wirya About MERI The Middle East Research Institute engages in policy issues contributing to the process of state building and democratisation in the Middle East. Through independent analysis and policy debates, our research aims to promote and develop good governance, human rights, rule of law and social and economic prosperity in the region. It was established in 2014 as an independent, not-for-profit organisation based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Middle East Research Institute 1186 Dream City Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq T: +964 (0)662649690 E: [email protected] www.meri-k.org NGO registration number. K843 © Middle East Research Institute, 2017 The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of MERI, the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publisher. The Yazidis Perceptions of Reconciliation and Conflict MERI Policy Paper Dave van Zoonen Khogir Wirya October 2017 1 Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................4 2. “Reconciliation” after genocide .........................................................................................................5 -
Iraq's Displacement Crisis
CEASEFIRE centre for civilian rights Lahib Higel Iraq’s Displacement Crisis: Security and protection © Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights and Minority Rights Group International March 2016 Cover photo: This report has been produced as part of the Ceasefire project, a multi-year pro- gramme supported by the European Union to implement a system of civilian-led An Iraqi boy watches as internally- displaced Iraq families return to their monitoring of human rights abuses in Iraq, focusing in particular on the rights of homes in the western Melhaniyeh vulnerable civilians including vulnerable women, internally-displaced persons (IDPs), neighbourhood of Baghdad in stateless persons, and ethnic or religious minorities, and to assess the feasibility of September 2008. Some 150 Shi’a and Sunni families returned after an extending civilian-led monitoring to other country situations. earlier wave of displacement some two years before when sectarian This report has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union violence escalated and families fled and the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada. The con- to neighbourhoods where their sect was in the majority. tents of this report are the sole responsibility of the publishers and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. © Ahmad Al-Rubaye /AFP / Getty Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights The Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights is a new initiative to develop ‘civilian-led monitoring’ of violations of international humanitarian law or human rights, to pursue legal and political accountability for those responsible for such violations, and to develop the practice of civilian rights. -
ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad
Jessica D. Lewis BACKGROUNDER June 27, 2014 ISIS BattlE PlAn FoR BAgHdAd here are indications that ISIS is about to launch into a new offensive in Iraq. ISIS published photos of Ta military parade through the streets of Mosul on June 24, 2014 showcasing U.S. military equipment, including armored vehicles and towed artillery systems.1 ISIS reportedly executed another parade in Hawijah on June 26, 2014.2 These parades may be a demonstration of force to reinforce their control of these urban centers. They may also be a prelude to ISIS troop movements, and it is important to anticipate where ISIS may deploy these forces forward. Meanwhile, ISIS also renewed the use of suicide bombers in the vicinity of Baghdad. An ISIS bomber with a suicide vest (SVEST) attacked the Kadhimiya shrine in northern Baghdad on June 26, 2014,3 one of the four holy sites in Iraq that Iran and Shi’a militias are most concerned to protect. ISIS also incorporated an SVEST into a complex attack in Mahmudiyah, south of Baghdad, on June 25, 2014 in a zone primarily controlled by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Shi’a militias on the road from Baghdad to Karbala.4 These attacks are demonstrations that ISIS has uncommitted forces in the Baghdad Belts that may be brought to bear in new offensives. ISIS’s offensive has not culminated, and the ISIS campaign for Iraq is not over. Rather, as Ramadan approaches, their main offensive is likely imminent.* The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is formidable, of former Saddam-era military officers who know the military but it is also predictable. -
IRIS:KAS Report
The Failure of Reconstruction in Mosul: Root Causes from 2003 to the Post-ISIS Period Zmkan Ali Saleem & Mac Skelton IRIS Policy Report 0 (Modified Reprint) The Failure of Reconstruction in Mosul: Root Causes from 2003 to the Post-ISIS Period **This reprint (released June 10, 2020) is a modified and updated excerpt of an October 2019 IRIS/KAS publication entitled “Mosul and Basra after the Protests: The Roots of Government Failure and Popular Discontent.”** The Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) is a policy research center based at the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS). Through multidisciplinary research, training programs, and policy forums, IRIS addresses the most complex issues facing Iraq and the Middle East. The Institute is funded through grants from donor institutions and countries. Recently IRIS has partnered with the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq, London School of Economics, the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, & Chatham House on a variety of programs and research projects. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) is a German political foundation whose civic education programs aim at promoting freedom and liberty, peace and justice. The KAS ` Syria/Iraq Office deals with the political and social situation in both countries, questions regarding the stability of the region, the refugee situation and security implications sdfgsdfg arising from the Syrian civil war and the emergence of the Islamic State. In addition to strengthening political dialogue within the region and between Europe and the Middle East, KAS work focuses on reconciliation and civil society support, good governance and rule of law, as well as research and analysis. -
Inside the Fall of Mosul
IRAQ SURVIVOR: Gharawi, here with U.S. Army Col. Scott McKean at a ceremony to transfer military authority in September 2011, has been a key player in Iraq’s security forces for more than a decade. Now he could face the death penalty. REUTERS/U.S. ARMY PHOTO BY SPC. BRANDON BEDNAREK/HANDOUT Baghdad blames one general for the loss of the strategic city. A Reuters investigation finds responsibility for the debacle goes higher Inside the Fall of Mosul BY NED PARKER, ISABEL COLES, AND RAHEEM SALMAN BAGHDAD, OCTOBER 14, 2014 PULITZER PRIZE ENTRY INTERNATIONAL REPORTING 1 IRAQ INSIDE THE FALL OF MOSUL ieutenant General Mahdi Gharawi knew an attack was coming. L In late May, Iraqi security forces arrested seven members of militant group Islamic State in Mosul and learned the group planned an offensive on the city in early June. Gharawi, the operational commander of Nineveh province, of which Mosul is the capital, asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s most trusted commanders for reinforcements. With Iraq’s military overstretched, the senior officers scoffed at the request. Diplomats in Baghdad also passed along intelligence of an attack, only to be told that Iraqi Special Forces were in Mosul and POWER MEN: Lieutenant General Qanbar (right) and then Prime could handle any scenario. Minister Maliki at a funeral in August. Gharawi says the two men, and On June 4, federal police in Mosul under General Ali Ghaidan, know who ordered the military retreat in Mosul. Gharawi’s command cornered Islamic State’s REUTERS/STRINGER military leader in Iraq, who blew himself up rather than surrendering. -
Iraq SITREP 2015-2-28-3-1 V5
Iraq Situation Report: February 28 - March 1, 2015 1 On February 28, unidentied gunmen launched a mortar round that landed in Dora, southern 4 On February 28, an SVBIED detonated near the Hwesh area, west of Samarra, Baghdad. On March 1, a security force found four unidentied dead bodies with gunshot wounds in killing three members of the “Popular Mobilization” and injuring 15 others. the Ma’amil area of eastern Baghdad. 2 e operation to clear the city of Tikrit has been announced. On February 27, spokesperson of 5 On February 28, ISIS launched an attack on a headquarters of the Federal Police the Popular Mobilization Commission Karim Nuri stated that the operation to clear Tikrit, Dour, (FP) in the Sour Shnas area, north of Samarra, using three SVBIEDs and gunmen and Alam from ISIS control will be launched at the order of Prime Minister Abadi. attempting to storm the headquarters. e attackers reportedly killed one FP member Governor of Salah ad-Din Raid al-Juburi stated that residents from the province and injured eight others but failed to storm the headquarters. e source did not who graduated training camps will participate in the operation, and that 2,000 indicate whether the SVBIEDs detonated successfully or not. A report later tents were prepared to host eeing families in Samarra. e delay in indicated that “security forces” launched an attack on ISIS in the area killing Dahuk launching the operation was reportedly in order to allow more families 22 ISIS members. to ee. On February 28, IA artillery targeted “ISIS hideouts” in Dour. -
Isis's Insurgency Strategy
OUT OF THE DESERT ISIS’S STRATEGY FOR A LONG WAR HASSAN HASSAN SEPTEMBER 2018 POLICY PAPER 2018-8 CONTENTS * SUMMARY * KEY POINTS * 1 INTRODUCTION * 2 ISIS’S FORMULA FOR SURVIVAL * 4 ISIS’S INSURGENCY STRATEGY * 8 RETREATING TO RURAL AREAS * 14 RECOVERY SIGNS * 17 WRONG LESSONS LEARNED? * 19 CONCLUSION * 21 ENDNOTES * 23 ABOUT THE AUTHOR * 24 ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE © The Middle East Institute The Middle East Institute 1319 18th Street NW Washington, D.C. 20036 SUMMARY The collapse of ISIS’s caliphate and its subsequent flight from much of its former territory has been a triumph for the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq and Syria. However, for ISIS, expulsion from former urban strongholds is the end of one chapter and the beginning of another: the group has since rolled out a well-developed strategy to assure its future resurgence. This paper examines ISIS’s actions, publications, and communications to determine its insurgency strategies and long-term organizational outlook, emphasizing sources that have been largely overlooked by forces fighting the group. By analyzing the strategies ISIS uses and has used in its previous incarnations, this paper argues that insurgent groups like ISIS will continute to operate within the ungoverned space along the Syria-Iraq border, and that if left unchecked, the group is likely to re-emerge. KEY POINTS * The contiguous terrain linking Iraq and Syria provides an ideal space for jihadis to endure, entrench, and emerge again. * ISIS’s post-caliphate strategy is to target Sunnis that collaborate with government forces or other insurgent groups using hit-and- run tactics and targeted assassinations, using as its base desert areas. -
Partner Operations in Syria Lessons Learned and the Way Forward
Atlantic Council RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST Partner Operations in Syria Lessons Learned and the Way Forward Aaron Stein A Report of the Atlantic Council’s Sudan Task Force by Ambassador Mary Carlin Yates with Kelsey Lilley Partner Operations in Syria Lessons Learned and the Way Forward Aaron Stein ISBN: 978-1-61977-405-6. Cover photo: Reuters/Goran Tomasevic. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters stand in line during a funeral of SDF fighters killed by Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham militants in Raqqa, at Tal Abiad, Syria June 23, 2017. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. July 2017 Partner Operations in Syria CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................2 Syria: Special Operations Forces and the Task at Hand ..............................................................4 How We Got Here: Tensions with Turkey about Strategy ..........................................................6 Train and Equip: Seeking to Close the Pocket with Arab Forces ............................................9 -
Iran's ISIS Policy
Iran’s ISIS policy DINA ESFANDIARY AND ARIANE TABATABAI The rise of a new Sunni extremist group in the Middle East has become a signif- icant security threat in an already volatile region. Empowered by conflict and instability, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), founded as Al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate in the Levant, became an independent entity, the split sealed when Al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, disavowed the group in early 2014. A few months later, ISIS made headlines when it began to seize control of terri- tories beyond Syria, rapidly advancing in Iraq and even Lebanon, and brutally massacring civilians. Reports of mass executions and rapes of Shi’is, Christians, and other ethnic and religious minorities, including the Yazidis in Iraq, and videos of behead- ings, led to the formation of an international coalition, headed by the United States, to implement President Barack Obama’s four-point plan to ‘degrade and ultimately destroy’ ISIS.1 This plan includes air strikes against ISIS targets, increased support to local forces on the ground, continuation of counterterrorism efforts to prevent future attacks, and humanitarian assistance to non-combatants in the region. Despite reports of US–Iran cooperation in the fight against ISIS, the two countries have issued conflicting statements on the matter. On the one hand, US and Iranian officials have stated that their countries could cooperate to defeat ISIS; on the other, the US Secretary of State argued that Tehran should not be invited to the international conference on ISIS held in France in September 2014, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei claimed that his country rejected Washington’s request for cooperation.2 And yet, although to date Tehran has been excluded from the international coalition against ISIS, it is difficult to imagine a resolution of the crisis without some form of coordination between the United States and Iran, and also between Saudi Arabia and Iran. -
West Mosul: Perceptions on Return and Reintegration Among Stayees, Idps and Returnees
IOM IRAQ WEST MOSUL PERCEPTIONS ON RETURN AND REINTEGRATION AMONG STAYEES, IDPS AND RETURNEES JUNE 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 4 Introduction 6 Methodology 10 A. Background 13 A.1. A Brief Demographic History of Mosul Before ISIL 13 A.2. Mosul During and After ISIL Rule 15 A.3. Current Demographic Composition 18 B. The Context of IDPs 22 B.1. Trauma and Conflict-Related Grievances 22 B.2. Stigmatization of Suspected ISIL Affiliates 23 B.3. Perceptions of IDPs and Variation in the Timing of Departure 24 B.4. How Do IDPs Perceive Stayers? 26 B.5. What Do IDPs from West Mosul Think of Return? 27 C. Constraints on Return 28 ABOUT IOM C.1. Economic Constraints 28 C.2. Houses Destroyed or Unlawfully Occupied by Other Residents 28 The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is the United Nations Migration Agency. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental C.3. Looting and Crime 29 organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational C.4. Slow Reconstruction, Poor Quality of Services, and Lack of Compensation 29 challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development C.5. Fears of Revenge Against ISIL-Affiliated IDPs 30 through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. D. Overview of Conditions in 3 IDP Camps Near Mosul 32 D.1. Haj Ali Camp 32 IOM DISCLAIMER D.1.1. Services 32 D.1.2. -
Containing Shiite Militias: the Battle for Stability in Iraq
P B D C S M: T B S I R A Containing Shiite Militias: The Battle for Stability in Iraq Ranj Alaaldin The Brookings Institution is a private non-profit organization. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment and the analysis and recommendations are not determined by any donation. Copyright © 2017 Brookings Institution BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 U.S.A. www.brookings.edu BROOKINGS DOHA CENTER Saha 43, Building 63, West Bay, Doha, Qatar www.brookings.edu/doha III Containing Shiite Militias: The Battle for Stability in Iraq Ranj Alaaldin1 The liberation of Mosul is complete. The so- the Badr Brigade), and his deputy, Abu Mahdi called Islamic State (ISIS) is unlikely to govern al-Muhandis (the head of Kataib Hezbollah). and control large swaths of territory any time They have functioned with autonomy over soon. However, while there are reasons to the past decade with considerable resources celebrate, the end of the so-called Caliphate and patronage from their sponsors in Tehran, does not mean the end of ISIS and militancy in and they have also capitalized on Sistani’s call Iraq.