Is a Crisis Coming in Regional Aviation? by Matthew Bennett
Is a Crisis Coming in Regional Aviation? By Matthew Bennett One of the most successful sectors of the aviation industry over the past decade has been regional jet services. In North America, regional airlines such as SkyWest and Mesa Air, which serve low-density markets, have been embraced by market analysts and shareholders for their high margins and stable earnings. Their market strength has been driven by the versatility of regional jets, cost discipline, and the advent of creative risk-sharing partnerships with major airlines. The economics of these businesses, however, are poised to shift dramatically with the introduction of larger regional jets. Major airlines and their regional affiliates who do not consider the implications now may later face the consequences of inaction. A Great Takeoff Regional jets have proven to be ideal for flying on routes that are too “thin” to support traditional narrowbody aircraft (e.g., B737) service and, as a result, regional aviation capacity has expanded rapidly. In 1997, there were fewer than 150 regional jets in North America. By 2002, the number of regional jets had grown to over 1,000, and more than 2,000 are expected to be in the air by 2006 (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1 US Regional Jet Population Growth (Number of planes) 2,500 2,000 19% CAGR 11% 16% 1,500 22% 28% 1,000 33% 48% CAGR 33% 500 43% 57% 79% 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E Source: BACK Aviation, UBS report August 2003. What sets regional carriers apart, however, has been their consistent profitability.
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