TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH CIRCULAR Number E-C051 January 2003 Future Aviation Activities 12th International Workshop TRANSPORTATION Number E-C051, January 2003 RESEARCH ISSN 0097-8515 CIRCULAR Future Aviation Activities 12th International Workshop Sponsored by COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ECONOMICS AND FORECASTING (A1J02) COMMITTEE ON LIGHT COMMERCIAL AND GENERAL AVIATION (A1J03) Workshop Committee Cochairs Gerald W. Bernstein, Stanford Transportation Group Chair, Committee on Aviation Economics and Forecasting (A1J02) Gerald S. McDougall, Southeast Missouri State University Chair, Committee on Light Commercial and General Aviation (A1J03) Panel Leaders Richard S. Golaszewski David Lawrence Joseph P. Schwieterman GRA, Inc. Aviation Market Research, LLC DePaul University Geoffrey D. Gosling Derrick Maple Anne Strauss-Wieder Aviation System Planning Smiths Aerospace A. Strauss-Wieder, Inc. Consultant Gerald S. McDougall Ronald L. Swanda Tulinda Larsen Southeast Missouri State General Aviation BACK Aviation Solutions University Manufacturers Association Joseph A. Breen, TRB Staff Representative Subscriber Category Transportation Research Board V aviation 500 5th Street, NW www.TRB.org Washington, DC 20001 The Transpo rtation Research Board is a division of the National Research Council, which serves as an independent adviser to the federal government on scientific and technical questions of national importance. The National Research Council, jointly administered by the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine, brings the resources of the entire scientific and technical community to bear on national problems through its volunteer advisory committees. The Transportation Research Board is distributing this Circular to make the information contained herein available for use by individual practitioners in state and local transportation agencies, researchers in academic institutions, and other members of the transportation research community. The information in this Circular was taken directly from the submissions of the authors. This document is not a report of the National Research Council or of the National Academy of Sciences. Foreword he 12th International Workshop on Future Aviation Activities was conducted by the TTransportation Research Board on September 18–20, 2002, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. This workshop, the most recent in a biennial series that was initiated in 1979, was carried out with support from the Federal Aviation Administration to provide input to public- and private-sector managers and decision makers on forecasting long- term trends and developments in commercial, business, and personal air transport. Focus was on the post-September 11 environment. Topics discussed include the domestic and international macroeconomic outlook; the structure and operating patterns of major and regional American air carriers; expected developments in international aviation, air cargo issues, aircraft, and engine manufacture; trends in business aviation, including fractional ownership; civil helicopter transport services; and the improving future for personally owned and operated light aircraft. Nearly 150 participants, drawn from government, industry, academic institutions, and private consulting firms both here and abroad, took part in this 3-day meeting. Many came from the United States, in addition to substantial representation from Europe, Asia, Latin America, and foreign firms with offices in the United States. The program consisted of three major segments: an opening plenary session with presentations on the broad outlook and strategic issues; nine concurrent discussion panels on sectoral trends and problems; and a concluding plenary session in which panel discussions were summarized. TRB deeply appreciates the gift of time and the thoughtful contributions of the distinguished experts who attended the workshop. Special acknowledgment is due to the workshop cochairs—Mr. Gerald Bernstein of the Stanford Transportation Group and Professor Gerald S. McDougall, Dean of the Harrison College of Business at Southeast Missouri State University—for planning and organizing this endeavor and for overseeing preparation of this report. Workshop participants represented a diverse set of views from throughout the aviation community. Given the broad range of perspectives, the observations and suggestions voiced at the workshop were varied and sometimes even at odds. Although some of the views reported here were widely held, they are not to be construed as consensus findings or recommendations of all the participants or of the members of the steering group. i Contents INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTORY PRESENTATIONS Welcome...................................................................................................................................2 Gerald W. Bernstein, Stanford Transportation Group FAA Welcome .........................................................................................................................3 Louise Maillet, Federal Aviation Administration Latest Aviation Outlook and Trends ....................................................................................4 Robert Bowles, Federal Aviation Administration The Market View....................................................................................................................8 Douglas Runte, Morgan Stanley Airports in the 21st Century: The Challenges of Security, Capacity, and Convenience..................................................................................................12 Mary Rose Loney, The Loney Group General Aviation Issues........................................................................................................17 Rollie A. Vincent, Cessna Aircraft Company A Convergence of Issues: The Customer’s Perspective ....................................................25 Kevin Mitchell, Business Travel Coalition Questions and Answers ........................................................................................................28 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................32 Gerald W. Bernstein, Stanford Transportation Group, and Gerald S. McDougall, Southeast Missouri State University DISCUSSION PANEL REPORTS International Airlines...........................................................................................................44 Domestic Airlines..................................................................................................................51 Air Cargo...............................................................................................................................57 Airports and Infrastructure.................................................................................................61 Fleets and Manufacturers....................................................................................................68 Regional Airlines...................................................................................................................72 Business Aviation..................................................................................................................77 Vertical Flight .......................................................................................................................84 Light Personal and General Aviation .................................................................................86 APPENDIX A: FAA Draft Forecasts.........................................................................................91 APPENDIX B: Workshop Participants...................................................................................129 Introduction he workshop opened with an introduction by Louise Maillett, Acting Assistant Administrator Tfor the FAA’s Office of Policy, Planning, and International Aviation. Robert Bowles, FAA’s Manager of Statistics and Forecasts, then outlined the latest aviation trends, summarized the development of the FAA draft forecast, and charged the panels to examine and challenge all aspects of that draft forecast. Their welcome was followed by four distinguished plenary speakers. Douglas Runte, Executive Director of the Fixed Income Division of Morgan Stanley, provided insights into the market’s financial view of the air transportation industry. Mary Rose Loney, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Loney Group, then summarized the issues and challenges involved in providing airport security, capacity and convenience. Rollie Vincent, Cessna Aircraft Corporation’s Vice President for Strategic Planning and New Business Development, addressed a range of opportunities, efficiencies, and the changing environment for general aviation (GA). The final plenary speaker was Kevin Mitchell, Chairman of the Business Travel Coalition, who offered a unique perspective from the viewpoint of large corporate buyers of air transportation services. By addressing the post-September 11 environment and issues facing major and regional airlines and the GA community, the plenary speakers provided thoughtful insights to the panel members who were then charged with looking into the future and comparing their outlook with that of the FAA. Each individual was assigned to one of nine panels. These panels addressed the following areas: domestic,