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Defra-REDD Report Development and application of methodologies for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) – Phase I Robin Matthews, Brent Swallow, Meine van Noordwijk, Eleanor Milne, Peter Minang, Innocent Bakam, Mark Brewer, Shibu Muhammed, Laura Poggio, Klaus Glenk, Stefano Fiorini, Sonia Dewi, Jian Chu Xu, Gillian Cerbu, Madhu Subedi Development and application of methodologies for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) – Phase I CEOSA 0803 Final Report Robin Matthews, Brent Swallow, Meine van Noordwijk, Eleanor Milne, Peter Minang, Innocent Bakam, Mark Brewer, Shibu Muhammed, Laura Poggio, Klaus Glenk, Stefano Fiorini, Sonia Dewi, Jian Chu Xu, Gillian Cerbu, Madhu Subedi Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK World Agroforestry Centre, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri, PO Box 30677-00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya. Table of Contents Executive Summary _____________________________________________________________ 1 Assessment of available data ___________________________________________________________ 1 Drivers of deforestation _______________________________________________________________ 1 Methodologies for determining national-level baselines _____________________________________ 2 REDD+ demonstration projects ________________________________________________________ 3 Chapter 1: Introduction __________________________________________________________ 4 Background _________________________________________________________________________ 4 This project _________________________________________________________________________ 6 Chapter 2: Assessment of available data on forest cover and country-specific estimates of REDD+ emissions and projections __________________________________________________ 7 Forest cover data ____________________________________________________________________ 7 FAO data sets _____________________________________________________________________________ 7 Availability of imagery data __________________________________________________________________ 8 Processed land cover data ___________________________________________________________________ 10 Recognizing forest degradation _______________________________________________________________ 12 Estimating carbon stocks and emissions ________________________________________________ 13 Converting biomass data to carbon stocks ______________________________________________________ 13 Deriving carbon stock densities from remote sensing data __________________________________________ 13 Estimated national carbon stocks _____________________________________________________________ 14 Estimated national GHG emissions ____________________________________________________________ 16 Sources of uncertainty _______________________________________________________________ 17 Ambiguity of forest definitions _______________________________________________________________ 17 Ambiguity in pools included/excluded _________________________________________________________ 17 Forest quality _____________________________________________________________________________ 18 Peat soils ________________________________________________________________________________ 19 Full carbon accounting and landscape-wide emissions _____________________________________________ 19 Chapter 3: Understanding the causal link between trends in deforestation and forest degradation rates, and the underlying drivers __________________________________________________ 22 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 22 Drivers of deforestation in South and South-east Asia _____________________________________ 24 Drivers of deforestation in South and Central America ____________________________________ 26 Drivers of deforestation in Africa ______________________________________________________ 28 Chapter 4: Methodologies for establishing country-specific REDD+ reference emission levels 30 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 30 Review of existing baseline methodologies _______________________________________________ 31 Project-specific baselines ___________________________________________________________________ 31 Regional baselines _________________________________________________________________________ 31 Country-specific baselines __________________________________________________________________ 33 Global baselines __________________________________________________________________________ 35 Other approaches __________________________________________________________________________ 37 Estimating reference levels for main deforesting countries _________________________________ 37 Datasets used _____________________________________________________________________________ 37 Baseline models __________________________________________________________________________ 41 Mixed effects modelling ____________________________________________________________________ 43 Predicted forest cover ______________________________________________________________________ 45 Chapter 5: Potential REDD+ demonstration projects __________________________________ 47 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 47 Data collection and analysis methods ___________________________________________________ 48 Web-based research and interviews ___________________________________________________________ 48 Access database ___________________________________________________________________________ 49 Results and Discussion: Emerging trends in REDD+ ______________________________________ 51 Institutions engaged in the REDD+ process _____________________________________________________ 51 Distribution of REDD+ projects and national readiness schemes _____________________________________ 53 Trends in actor involvement _________________________________________________________________ 57 Carbon standards __________________________________________________________________________ 58 Institutions’ support given for REDD+ activities _________________________________________________ 62 Institutions’ official criteria and additional reasons for REDD+ activity location selection _________________ 63 Summary __________________________________________________________________________ 66 References ____________________________________________________________________ 67 Annex 1: Factsheets for major tropical deforesting countries ___________________________ 74 South-East Asia ____________________________________________________________________ 74 Cambodia _______________________________________________________________________________ 74 Indonesia ________________________________________________________________________________ 77 Lao People's Democratic Republic ____________________________________________________________ 81 Malaysia ________________________________________________________________________________ 84 Myanmar ________________________________________________________________________________ 88 Nepal ___________________________________________________________________________________ 91 Papua New Guinea (PNG) __________________________________________________________________ 95 Philippines _______________________________________________________________________________ 99 Thailand _______________________________________________________________________________ 103 Vietnam ________________________________________________________________________________ 106 South and Central America __________________________________________________________ 110 Argentina _______________________________________________________________________________ 110 Bolivia _________________________________________________________________________________ 114 Brazil __________________________________________________________________________________ 118 Ecuador ________________________________________________________________________________ 123 Mexico ________________________________________________________________________________ 126 Peru ___________________________________________________________________________________ 129 Africa ____________________________________________________________________________ 133 Angola _________________________________________________________________________________ 133 Cameroon ______________________________________________________________________________ 135 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ________________________________________________________ 138 Ethiopia ________________________________________________________________________________ 140 Gabon _________________________________________________________________________________ 142 Madagascar _____________________________________________________________________________ 144 Sudan __________________________________________________________________________________ 147 Tanzania _______________________________________________________________________________ 149 Uganda ________________________________________________________________________________ 152 Zambia ________________________________________________________________________________ 154 Annex 2: Predicted baselines and estimated uncertainties using a mixed-model approach ___ 157 Annex 3: Countries hosting REDD projects and involved in national REDD readiness activities (including RPIN preparation) ___________________________________________________ 171 Annex 4: REDD Project and National Readiness Activities ____________________________ 173
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